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26 ROAD MAINTENANCE OCTOBER 2015 www.highwaysmagazine.co.uk “The update of driverless vehicles will be contingent on a number of social, regulatory and commercial factors” Charlie Henderson MASS TRANSIT WORLD In this world, adoption of driverless vehicles is slower. There is public distrust of their safety and segregated lanes are still required for automated vehicles. The main developments are seen in bus transport, the road haulage sector, and in point to point journeys in urban areas. Private cars remain in use and are more highly automated but drivers remain in control. One of the challenges in this world is that while existing driverless trains raise little comment, it is harder to gain acceptance of driverless buses or cars. As a result, public transport providers may embrace some of the benefits of automation but not driverless vehicles. This also raises the challenge that, while many technical obstacles have been overcome, the public confidence challenge has not. Mass transit world also raises some broader social questions about the acceptability of segregated lanes. The public accepts these at night, but are far less likely to accept segregation at busy times when it affects their journeys. Another critical question in this world will be the division between rural and urban areas. The developments in mass transit are largely irrelevant outside cities, with the result that there are quite different approaches to autonomous vehicles in different parts of the country, potentially leading to interoperability issues. Characteristics Slow adoption Drivers remain in control of vehicles Public distrust Car ownership remains high Implications Full benefits not realised Segregation of autonomous vehicles Initiatives required to overcome public resistance Pace of development varies by geographic location ENTHUSIAST WORLD In this world, autonomous vehicles start strongly but a combination of high profile safety failings and a lack of supportive legislation effectively stop development. The public remain unpersuaded of the case and most people still prefer to drive their own cars because it has not been possible to remove the legal responsibility from the driver. This world highlights the critical role public opinion will play in whether autonomous vehicles become a reality. If there is clear evidence that the vehicles are safe, convenient and allow people to manage their time more effectively then they will be attractive. If there are concerns about safety and no real advantages in terms of freeing up time then development will stall. Further, the replacement cycle for cars means that change is inevitably incremental and slow. Characteristics Low adoption High private car ownership Implications High public distrust Legislation seen as a barrier to innovation Initiatives required to stimulate adoption We do not claim that any of the scenarios are ‘right’; nor are there only four scenarios. The value of the approach is not as a predictor; rather it provides a structure around which to consider the uncertain paths to adoption. Our FutureWorlds analysis highlighted that first it is necessary to ensure that the technology components of autonomous vehicles work together safely and reliably no matter what the road, weather or traffic conditions is an obvious barrier to widespread introduction. And they need to be cyber-secure. Secondly, the update of driverless vehicles will be contingent on a number of other social, regulatory and commercial factors. Together these elements will build commercial and public confidence. Governments’ and the public’s appetite for risk will shape the regulatory framework required to permit the widespread introduction of autonomous vehicles, which in turn will impact the speed at which the technology becomes economically and commercially viable for individuals and organisations. Thirdly, and perhaps most interestingly, the widespread introduction of autonomous vehicles poses a real challenge to the established model of car ownership and traffic management. Undoubtedly this is something that the highways sector needs to get excited about.
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