indonesia

electricity to cover several million people currently without reliable access, Indonesia’s electricity
demand is expected to roughly triple between 2011 and 2035. It is hard to imagine a scenario that
does not require a dramatic increase in demand across a range of fuel sources to meet this goal.
Furthermore, if the rise in energy demand is not well managed, it is difficult to imagine a scenario
that does not lead to a substantial increase in energy-related CO 2 emissions. Yet as Bravo and
Tsafos note, Indonesia’s continued potential for greater utilization and development of natural gas
supplies suggests an opportunity to expand access to electricity while avoiding the environmental
damage that would come with unmitigated reliance on cheap, low-efficiency coal supplies.
However, pursuing this option will require policy action. It will also not negate the fact that coal is
anticipated to play a heightened role in the country’s energy mix, suggesting that greater attention
is still required to manage the impacts of the growth in coal consumption through lower-carbon
technology and more effective policies.
Finally, Hanan Nugroho of the National Development Planning Agency of Indonesia offers a
very thoughtful assessment of how the country is looking to craft a cohesive approach to energy
policymaking that fully integrates environmental considerations. He argues that a number of
the so-called traditional definitions of energy security fail to take into account that a driving
consideration for Indonesian policymakers is not just securing energy supplies but ensuring
that the supplies engaged address sustainability and social license concerns. With this in mind,
Nugroho invites readers to reassess Indonesia’s energy security using an “A4&S” framework—that
is, a strategy for pursuing a cleaner energy mix based on what is available, accessible, affordable,
acceptable, and sustainable. In addition to the great potential for natural gas assessed by Bravo
and Tsafos, Nugroho argues that Indonesia has incredible (and largely untapped) potential in
renewable energy resources, including but not limited to wind, solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal
potential. Indeed, if the country is to meet ambitious targets to raise renewable energy to around
23% of its energy mix by 2025, it likely will need to draw heavily on each of these resources. Yet
as Nugroho aptly observes, where and to what extent each of these options is developed will be a
function of both structural and geographic considerations and the degree to which investment
needs, financing, and other market opportunities can be fully realized.
These four essays collectively paint the picture of a country in the midst of a historic moment.
Whether Indonesia can capture this moment will depend on its ability to harness market
opportunities and implement policies to achieve domestic aims and strengthen its natural role
as an energy leader in the wider Asia-Pacific. Although major challenges remain to Indonesia
adequately satisfying its growing domestic demand for energy and electricity, the country also
has the potential to meet this demand in ways that are more sustainable and responsive to
environmental considerations than has been true in the past. Achieving these goals will depend
on continued political will and even more robust collaborative efforts. The latter would not only
improve Indonesia’s energy security and satisfy rising energy demand but also help the country
reduce air pollution and uphold its climate commitments.
While NBR’s Energy Security Program is always the culmination of the efforts of dozens
(if not hundreds) of participants, partners, and collaborators, this year we owe a special debt
of gratitude to several groups and individuals who deserve particular recognition. First and
foremost, we are grateful for the generous support of our sponsors—the Asian Development
Bank, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil. Year after year, their contributions have
enabled us to examine the central energy security challenges facing the Asia-Pacific—and to do
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