ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

Defence Technologies: Game Changers for International Affairs
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of nations, and the large sections of poor, backward, sick, resourcestarved
majority that will remain unstable. Technology and power
would determine trends in both the directions, in either relative
narrowing or further widening of the divided world.
• A world of rampant nationalism with State and/or non-state-sponsored
terrorism with fluid coalitions among them. Transnational threats,
territorialism, strong national sentiments, proliferation of refugees and
authoritarian means of governance would flourish. Probability of
multiple regional conflicts could be high and major powers could
remain involved in counter-terrorism and humanitarian assistance as
well as peacekeeping operations.
• By 2030, the Asian Century may be well established with power,
prestige and techno-economic capability. Economic, technological and
political influence of this region could lead to unknown responses
from present major powers that are not used to being less powerful,
leading to new tensions and uncertainties. The technological edge of
the Western alliance and economic powers and the human potential
of Asia could either combine for greater world peace or could work
against each other.
• One may well have a world where technology may advance
exponentially and proliferate widely, where multinational corporations
dominate international affairs and loosely cooperate in a syndicate
mode. Economic competitiveness and profits would be the dominant
concerns, while conflicts may be dealt with through proxies. The
challenge to democratic countries with old-style values would be to
maintain their relevance and competence in a new world, demanding
a whole new approach to security and defence.
• A business-as-usual scenario in which events and equations would
evolve slowly, adjusting to real-time changes. Most nations would focus
on internal stability and progress and would not stir-up world peace
with a delicately balanced sense of stability. Political awareness and
techno-military capabilities will have to be on high alert for unknown
threats.
In reality, the actual situation may be a mix of two or more scenarios above
and the demand for technologies and defence systems for the future would
be dictated by the comprehensive threat perceptions as well as the requirements
of the power projections of individual States. 22