ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

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Technology and Security: Challenges for Diplomacy 33 is to be effective. The associated costs, combined with the opportunity costs from lost export earnings, could make export controls too expensive to justify for many nations. As discussed earlier, technology diffusion and increased globalisation have made international transactions far more interdependent and market-driven than ever before and the trend is bound to accelerate as economic competition becomes sharper. Even clear-cut arms export controls have faced problems because of the pressures of the arms export industry. When it comes to controlling dual-use technologies, definitions of what can be exported safely, and to whom, becomes even more complex.* Export controls have remained subjective based on foreign policy perceptions of the supplier nation and often change with change of perceptions. The technology denial regimes of the past five decades have spurred indigenous technology growth in many progressive countries. One of the major problems for export control regimes is the realisation that a number of countries outside the core regime, such as China, India and Israel, have become potential technology suppliers themselves. In addition to being important techno-economic players of the future, these countries are also potential markets for sales of high technology. One of the major impacts of the IT revolution is the risk of cyber warfare. The new level of dependence on IT in every walk of life, including defence and security matters, has brought about a new vulnerability and a consequent new threat perception from the risk of cyber warfare at different levels. Unlike conventional military hardware that causes destruction and death, cyber warfare techniques use intangible software tools that can cripple military capabilities and international commercial trade. In a sense, they are fullspectrum techno-economic tools for use in both defensive and offensive strategies. The nature of this technology is making individual brainpower often more relevant than techno-industrial infrastructure. This is threatening to compromise the huge technological advantage that the Western industrialised nations have established with years of effort. There are now new types of threat to an information-based society, where * For example, Germany and Sweden are believed to have sold industrial electron beam machines to the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), a Chinese manufacturer of computer chips. The US, however, is known to have banned such exports to China. It is an open question whether this is a case of undercutting the US or of disagreement over how to interpret agreed export control guidelines.
34 Role of Technology in International Affairs information security becomes as important as defence against a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) attack. Technology has thus changed the nature of warfare from visible large-scale military action and violence to subtle, invisible yet decisive capabilities for crippling the enemy’s information environment in a war-like situation, thus denying it the command, control, communications and intelligence (C 3 I) advantages. The ubiquitous nature of IT has also removed the clear distinction between covert and overt actions, because there is no clear, common, international agreement or even an understanding of acceptable and legitimate limits of using IT to protect national security interests. Paradoxically, it is the advances in sensor technologies and enhanced IT capabilities that are also responsible for enabling the technological edge necessary to counter WMD threats. IT can aid comprehensive monitoring and verification techniques for compliance verification as well as for early detection of proliferation activities, thereby complementing National Technical Means (NTM) for verification and monitoring. This will be valuable for the verifiable reduction or elimination of WMD arsenals and thus enhance confidence among the countries participating in co-operative disarmament. It is hoped that this will lead the world towards meaningful universal disarmament. Such ubiquitous technology as info-tech cannot be controlled even if it is subject to misuse by rough elements. Biotechnology is another double-edged sword that can either heal or hurt, depending on how the technology is managed. Concerns about use of bioweapons and biological warfare are high. Since the late 1970s there has been a surge of investment in biotechnology research that will not only lead to medical advances but also make it possible to introduce genetic changes to food crops to bring about higher yields and better resistance to disease. The combination of IT and biotechnology has allowed substantial genome sequencing and analysis, creating a wealth of information in the areas of healthcare, food production and agriculture. While so many benefits are brought forth by advances in the life sciences, greater understanding of processes that underpin life raises several moral and ethical concerns about biological warfare. Combination of biotechnology and nanotechnology in future may help in realisation of unprecedented miniaturisation and new capabilities that could be used for both constructive as well as destructive purposes. Another area of potential impact is energy technology. Future possibilities could include an alternative cheap and abundant source of energy that would
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Outer Space and International Affai
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6 Climate Change and International
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PART III Technology and Foreign Pol
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ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

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