Transition to a low-carbon economy for New Zealand

Emission reduction pathways 163
Key messages
• A transition to a low-carbon economy is possible
over the next few decades if we start now
and include coherent aspirations and actions
across agencies and businesses as well as by
communities and individuals.
• If New Zealand wishes to take domestic
actions to significantly reduce our current GHG
emissions, households, cities, commercial
enterprises and land-users will all need to make
changes in order to reduce their GHG emissions
significantly.
• Although there have been some useful studies
of future mitigation pathways for New Zealand,
information to enable quantitative and realistic
pathways to be produced is scarce and there is
a lack of detailed data to enable further analysis
to be undertaken to fill the knowledge gaps.
• The term ‘pathways’ suggests that there are a
number of different ways to proceed towards
approaching net zero emissions around the
second half of the century. However, all
routes that might achieve this goal include
implementing all feasible means of avoiding
activities, products and services that involve
releasing CO 2
from the burning of fossil fuels.
• Models developed for emission reduction
pathways elsewhere could be adapted for use
by New Zealand assessments, given time and
resources.
• Judgements based on current knowledge
of innovative technology development and
assumptions on future costs, deployment rates,
and carbon prices, can be used to provide
at least an indication of future mitigation
trajectories in each sector.
• All sectors have good potential to reduce
emissions and gain the many co-benefits
including cost savings, although for some
sectors, the mitigation costs in terms of
$/t CO 2
-eq avoided, are unknown.
• To support immediate and short-term mitigation
actions, especially those relating to behavioural
changes by households and businesses, an
effective carbon pricing regime would increase
the rate of mitigation.
• The more uncertain or politically difficult GHG
reductions, such as agricultural emissions, can
evolve over the longer term whilst other sectors
move more rapidly along a transition pathway
towards zero emissions.