Understanding Iran’s Role in the Syrian Conflict

Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi and Raffaello Pantucci 9
relations with the Iranian regime as Assad or, worse, that they would be influenced by Saudi
Arabia.47 Tehran also maintains that Assad must be allowed to stand in any elections during a
transition process, and that, given his popularity, he is likely to prevail.
While working towards its preferred outcome in Syria, Iran is also preparing for a scenario in
which the status quo ante is not restored and the regime collapses. To this end, Tehran continues
to focus on strengthening its ‘deep state’ in Syria, particularly in the south, aiming to establish
control over strategically valuable, predominantly Shia regions of Syria through its support of
non-state actors, in the hope that it will be able to continue to pursue its vital interests and
exert pressure on the government, whoever is in power. This strategy is one of the reasons for
tensions between Iran and the Syrian army. It has also prompted the Gulf States to intensify
their support for Sunni rebel groups.48
47. Interviews with senior Iranian officals, February 2016, and with a professor in international affairs,
Tehran, April 2016.
48. See Chapter II, ‘The View From Damascus’, and Chapter VI, ‘The View From the Gulf’.