Understanding Iran’s Role in the Syrian Conflict

Introduction
Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
Iran’s role in Syria is critical not only to the course of the latter’s five-year civil war, but
also to longer-term developments in the wider region, not least because the country’s
relations with key players, including Russia, Hizbullah, the Gulf States and the Syrian regime,
will inevitably be affected by the outcome of the conflict.
The alliance between the Syrian regime and the Iranian leadership is, on the face of it, puzzling. The
former is Arab, Alawite and secular, while Iran is Islamic, Shia and deeply religious. Nevertheless,
since the civil war in Syria erupted in March 2011, Iran has been one of the key supporters of the
regime of President Bashar Al-Assad, and has maintained significant influence over the evolution
of the conflict.
This paper presents the findings of a project designed to establish a better understanding of
Tehran’s ultimate ambitions in Syria, its relations with the other state and non-state actors
involved in the conflict, and its influence on Damascus and the outcome of the civil war.
A team of staff from RUSI and associate fellows investigated these questions from the perspective
of the five main actors in the conflict, including those states from the Gulf region, Russia and
non-state groups fighting on the battlefield, and contributed to six chapters which provide a
comprehensive assessment of Iran’s involvement in the Syrian conflict and how this is seen by the
governments in the region. The findings draw on interviews conducted between November 2015
and April 2016 in London, Moscow, Beirut, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Damascus and Tehran. The
emerging conclusions were tested at a private roundtable discussion in London in April 2016 that
brought together a range of leading subject matter experts.
The first chapter, ‘The View From Tehran’, explores the evolution and scale of Iran’s participation
in the Syrian conflict, identifying those setting the agenda and the objectives driving Iranian
foreign policy towards Syria. As one of Assad’s primary supporters, Tehran is working closely with
Damascus, as well as with Hizbullah and Russia, to prevent the collapse of the Syrian regime. Key
issues examined in this chapter are the nuances in policy emanating from the different decisionmaking
centres in Tehran, as well as what success in Syria would look like for Iran, particularly
with regard to its presence on the ground, its relationship with Hizbullah and Shia militias, and
the role of the Assad regime and current political institutions in a future Syria.
The five following chapters explore how the other players mentioned above view Iran’s role
in the Syrian conflict. Each starts with an assessment of the respective actor’s involvement in
the civil war before examining the actor’s view of Iranian policy on Syria and whether Tehran’s
ambitions align or conflict with its own.