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POLITICS GOVERNANCE STATE-SOCIETY RELATIONS

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<strong>POLITICS</strong>, <strong>GOVERNANCE</strong>, AND <strong>STATE</strong>-<strong>SOCIETY</strong> <strong>RELATIONS</strong><br />

Satellite dishes on building roofs in Cairo, Egypt provided new access to information, December 27, 2007.<br />

Photo credit: Paul Keller/Wikimedia.<br />

Perhaps it was inevitable that in this context of<br />

limited political and economic reforms determined<br />

by, and largely benefiting, a narrow slice of the<br />

society, the Arab world would see the emergence<br />

of new forms of bottom-up formal and informal<br />

political mobilization in the form of grassroots<br />

protest movements, new labor unions and wildcat<br />

labor actions, and new political parties, as well as<br />

new mobilization within and recruitment to longstanding<br />

non-state movements like the Muslim<br />

Brotherhood and Salafi groups.<br />

When these forces began to challenge state<br />

authority—both through formal political processes<br />

like elections and through nonviolent civil resistance<br />

like strikes and street protests—governments<br />

quickly found that the decades of declining state<br />

effectiveness meant that their non-coercive tools<br />

for reestablishing control were of limited value. This<br />

problem was compounded by the global recession<br />

of 2008, which raised inflation, raised food prices,<br />

and reduced the rents for non-oil-producing states;<br />

thus, public coffers were light when resources for<br />

co-optation were needed. In addition, the ideology<br />

of Arab nationalism trumpeted by leaders like<br />

Saddam Hussein had lost much of its luster in<br />

the wake of the two Iraq wars, both because of<br />

Hussein’s brutality toward his own people and<br />

because of the intra-Arab sectarian violence that<br />

emerged after 2003. So states increasingly turned<br />

to renewed attempts at coercion and manipulation<br />

of the political system. Increased state coercion<br />

produced the ultimate backlash in the form of mass<br />

popular mobilization against governments across<br />

much of the region. Where the army defected—<br />

as in Egypt and Tunisia—regime change was the<br />

result. But where leaders met popular protest with<br />

violence, they provoked civil conflict and created<br />

openings for violent non-state actors as well.<br />

It is no accident that the parts of the region that are<br />

most disordered today—Libya and Syria—are those<br />

where leaders, having failed to act in a manner that<br />

could have prevented uprisings, sought to repress<br />

popular dissent through the use of force. Instead<br />

of restoring order, these brutal, power-hungry, and<br />

shortsighted men broke their crumbling states to<br />

bits and drove their societies to civil war.<br />

As the state apparatus turned against its own<br />

citizens, those citizens turned elsewhere for<br />

protection—toward sectarian militias and extremist<br />

ATLANTIC COUNCIL<br />

17

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