POLITICS GOVERNANCE STATE-SOCIETY RELATIONS

POLITICS, GOVERNANCE, AND STATE-SOCIETY RELATIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The upending of the Middle Eastern order since
2011 came about primarily because of failures of
governance. We must properly understand the why
and how of this Middle Eastern breakdown if we
are to recognize and commit to the work that is
truly necessary to build a new, secure, and durable
regional order. Investing in sustainable governance
is important for the world and for the rising
generation of young Arabs, who can either become
a force for tremendous progress or a generation
lost to violence and despair.
How and Why the System Collapsed, and
What It Means
The regional collapse since 2011 is
the outcome of a long-standing
crisis in state-society relations in
the Arab world—one that took
several decades to germinate.
Regional governments failed to
adequately address this brewing
crisis, and indeed some of them
undertook policies that only
exacerbated the problem. When
popular uprisings burst into
the open in 2011, many leaders
responded poorly, deepening
societal divisions, weakening
institutions, and enabling the
growth of violent extremist
movements. Several states have
now collapsed into civil war,
but more remain vulnerable to
instability. The drivers of change
exist all across the region, in every environment.
No state is immune from the imperative to reform
governance into a more sustainable form. The
manner in which the regional order broke down
and the past five years of turmoil and disappointed
expectations have generated a crisis of order and a
crisis of authority. The lack of trust between citizens,
political leaders, and governments is perhaps
the most daunting obstacle to the restoration of
regional stability.
Understanding how and why the Arab state system
collapsed in 2011 reveals that the capacity of Arab
Three models
contend for
dominance in
today’s Middle
East: fragile
democracy
(Tunisia); order
through savagery
(ISIS); and renewed
authoritarianism
(Egypt under Sisi).
states to address local and regional security threats
depends in large part on structuring their political
institutions and repairing the breach between states
and society. The failure to revise governance, by
contrast, will invite escalating security challenges.
The future of the region will largely be determined
by the quality of governance, not its mere existence.
Governance that will last, and that positions states
to be effective and reliable partners in maintaining
regional stability, will have four key characteristics:
it will be more inclusive, more transparent, more
effective, and more accountable. Liberal democracy
is far more likely than any other regime type to
exhibit these characteristics, and the hunger for
democratic self-government
endures today. But the path
to democratic government is
neither swift nor linear.
Existing Models for
Governance
Five years after the Arab
uprisings, and with the failure of
all but one effort at governance
transformation, we look
across the Arab world and see
several failed or failing states,
new authoritarian models,
and a number of recalcitrant
autocracies holding on through a
combination of heavy spending,
increased coercion, and the soft
bigotry of low expectations
generated by fear both at home
and abroad (“At least we’re/they’re not ISIS”). Three
models contend for dominance in today’s Middle
East: fragile democracy (Tunisia); order through
savagery (ISIS); and renewed authoritarianism
(Egypt under Sisi). The latter two models do not
offer a stable or successful path for the future of
Middle Eastern states.
Given the level of violence suffusing the region, the
fear and mistrust that suffuse local populations,
and the ugly “race to the bottom” underway
where extremism and authoritarianism compete
as alternative models for Arab governance, it
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
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