WINFO #12

NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS
WE EXPECT CAM AND THE OFFENSE TO HAVE SUCCESS
MOVING THE BALL VS. THIS RAIDER D - AND HE’LL LIKELY
NEED TO AS THE PANTHER SECONDARY CAN BE EXPLOITED.
This year they’ve had big problems
moving the ball vs. Arizona and Denver.
We expect the similar issues vs. the Seahawks.
Tampa are coming off a pair of
wins, one vs. the Bears and a road win
at Arrowhead last week. QB Winston
has avoided making big mistakes, but
vs. one of the top-tier defenses in the
game, this offense isn’t going to have
the extra gear they need. And looking
closer at Winston’s performance when
he takes the field as a home dog, his
passer rating is under 80. Mike Evans
is an all-world receiver who Winston
keeps feeding, but the Seattle secondary
have a lot of experience making
all-world receivers very ordinary.
The usual factors make us a little
nervous - the travel for a West Coast
team, laying points on the road, etc.,
but with the way Wilson is playing and
the continued elite level the D is at,
we’ll side with a visitor we see winning
the game handily.
Suggested Play: Take Seattle
Carolina at Oakland
Line: Raiders -3.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Set-Up: Looking forward to this one.
We expect Cam and the offense to
have success moving the ball vs. this
Raider D - and he’ll likely need to as
the Panther secondary can be exploited.
Still, whatever Carr does, we see
Cam matching (hey, Osweiler looked
good against Oakland last week). The
Raiders are winning games, but they
do seem to have to find new ways
each week to pull out these victories.
Getting a “W” after being outplayed
has to catch up to you at some point
doesn’t it? Like the road dog.
Suggested Play: Take the underdog
Panthers
Kansas City at Denver
Line: Broncos -3.5
Over/Under: 39.5
Set-Up: Denver, as always, will rely
on their defense to get them through.
They are coming off their bye and
will be getting guys back (notably
Aqib Talib), but this offense remains
entirely manageable for a defense like
the Chiefs.
Kansas City hasn’t been right the last
few weeks, including a bad loss at
Arrowhead vs. the Bucs in Week 11 -
and they rarely ever lose at home. But
without their top corner to go heads up
on Mike Evans and an Alex Smith pick
late...there you go. Getting right on the
road at Denver is a tough ask, but this
isn’t a matchup KC can’t handle. Alex
Smith hasn’t been horrible, but he’s
far from impressive (and isn’t the only
reason he has a starting job is because
he doesn’t throw crushing interceptions
late in games). It’s going to be tough
for the Chiefs to create a lot of points,
but the same can be said on the other
side of the ball. We like the team getting
more than a FG.
Suggested Play: Kansas City
New England at NY Jets
Line: Patriots -8
Over/Under: 47
Set-Up: This is the Jets’ Super Bowl...
so what. They’re bad and New England
is good. And I’m guessing Brady
and the Hoodie would like nothing
more that to really stick it to them. But
honestly, we don’t like either side –
what we do like is this game to stay
Under the total.
Suggested Play: We’ll take the Jets
**Take the Under** Best Bet
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles -4
Over/Under: 47
Set-Up: One more time. The last two
weeks we’ve watched our Packer picks
go bad. Real bad. Each time the Green
Bay game comes up in our NFL Analysis
meetings it’s a two-on-one dogfight,
with two members of the team wanting
to go against them and one holdout,
still scrapping for them (me, the one
doing the writing this week, is the holdout)...and
here we go again.
Yes, the Green Bay defense is awful.
Yes, the Eagles have been pretty
good at home this season...but is this
Philadelphia offense, led by Carson
Wentz, a beat-up running game and
mediocre receiving threats capable of
shredding a bad defense? Mmmmm,
not so sure. As much as people might
talk about Green Bay being a get-well
card for Wentz, it’s not out of line to say
Wentz and the Eagle offense could be
a welcome-respite for the Packers.
Philly hasn’t exactly been tearing it up
lately. They’ve dropped five of their last
seven and after that fast start, Wentz
has been hovering near the bottom of
the barrel when it comes to QB play
(a passer rating that is lucky to hit 90
most games).
I’m backing Green Bay getting more
than a field goal against a Philly team
that isn’t all that scary to face right now.
Suggested Play: Take the Packers
+4.
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