WINFO #12

WINFONov. 24–30, 2016 

Issue #12 

NFL 

Over/Under Picks 

NHL ANALYSIS 

GREY 

CUP PICK 

Thanksgiving 

Football Plays

IN THE ISSUE 

IN THE ISSUE 

11 

3 The Good, The Bad, The Ugly 

4 Greg Dempson 

5-6 Wine and Whining 

7-10 NFL Analysis 

11-12 Totally Covered 

13 College Football Picks 

14 Three Down Football 

15-17 NHL Analysis and Picks 

18 Futures Foray 

7 

13 

2

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY 

THE GOOD, 

THE BAD 

AND THE 

UGLY 

Quote of the 

Week 

AS GOD 

AS MY 

WITNESS, 

I THOUGHT 

TURKEYS 

COULD FLY» 

Arthur Carlson, 

WKRP Manager 

I 

have no idea how many people reading this will 

remember the show “WKRP”, but you can still 

catch it here and there on reruns. This quote 

comes from their famous Thanksgiving Day 

themed episode and is truly one of the funnier 

scenes to come out of that great wave of 70’s 

sitcoms. 

It starts with Les Nesman down at the local mall 

in Cincinnati reporting on the big Thanksgiving 

Day promotion. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf3mgmEdfwg 

Tradition 

It’s tradition – and around here, we like traditions. 

That’s why you see a turkey emblazoned on the 

front cover of this issue. That goes back to the old 

days with Winner’s Edge, something we started 

doing every US Thanksgiving and now we continue 

the tradition. 

For all our American readers – we wish you a 

very safe and happy Thanksgiving weekend! 

Enjoy the family, food and football. 

On to The Good, The Bad and the Ugly: 

The Good 

Decent week overall. The NFL picks punched 

back, sporting a 9-3-2 mark against the spread. 

After the debacle in Week 11, that takes the overall 

season mark to 14-12-2 ATS. Hardly inspiring, 

but above water at least. 

• The NFL Best Bets split out at 1-1, taking the 

season total on those to 2-1 ATS. 

• Our Totally Covered section had so much 

great information again this week. Jarvis, 

who puts it together was 1-1 with his Total 

plays, taking those to 2-1 on the year. 

• Neil Alexander, our resident wine expert and 

sports handicapper had another winning 

week, hitting two-for-three and raising his 

season mark to 5-1 ATS. 

• And we had a solid week with the NHL, 

banking a couple of units of profit. 

Everyone is back this week with more picks 

and info. 

The Bad 

Look no further than our College Football 

Picks, as they stumbled to a 1-3 mark last 

week and are now at 2-5 ATS on the season. 

Looking forward to getting on a bit of a run as 

we head to Bowl season. 

The Ugly 

Has to be the CFL picks overall. 0-1 last week 

to add to the 0-1 the week before. O-fer in the 

CFL counts for Ugly. The only good thing about 

that is it’s Grey Cup week! The last game of the 

year. 

Best of luck this week everyone. 

3

GREG DEMPSON 

What do The Beatles 

and the Buccaneers 

by Greg Dempson 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 

What do The Beatles and the 

Buccaneers have in common? 

The correct answer is the 

number ”64.” 

The British Invasion began in February 

of ’64 with The Beatles inaugural 

performance on the Ed Sullivan Show. 

That opened the floodgates for The 

Rolling Stones, The Who, The Animals 

and so many other British acts. In 1967 

Paul McCartney wrote and sang lead 

on the Beatles hit, “When I’m 64,” with 

the group making more than a few 

“Bucs” with that hit record! 

The Buccaneers are currently at B– 

minus 64 and counting and I’m hoping 

they are –45 on the negative side 

when this 4:05 ET start goes final! In an 

amazing mark of futility, Tampa Bay has 

produced a record of 19–44–1 ATS in 

their last 64 home games. Recent form 

has Tampa at 1–4 straight up and ATS 

as a host this season plus in the past 

three years, they are a feeble 6–15 ATS 

at Raymond James Stadium. 

To make matters worse they are 

catching Seattle at a bad time as the 

Seahawks are finally healthy and it has 

certainly showed the past three weeks 

as they won outright two weeks ago at 

Foxboro vs. the Patriots, (31–24,) and 

then followed up that impressive victory 

by defeating the Eagles (26–15.) 

In their past three contests Seattle is 

averaging 29.33 PPG. On the other 

side of the ball, their stop unit boasts 

the stingiest defense in the league as 

they’re allowing an average of 17.3 

PPG, (16.2 when on the road.) 

View From the Sidelines 

• In the second half of the season 

Seattle’s head coach Pet Carroll is 

15–0 ATS vs. bad defensive teams 

who allow 24 or more points per 

game. The average score in those 

15 contests is Seattle 33, opponents 

11.8. 

• Carroll is also 11–1 ATS vs. poor 

passing defenses that allow 7 or 

more passing yards per attempt in 

the second half of the season. 

Quarterback Comparisons 

• Jameis Winston is 4–9 ATS when 

starting at home. 

have in common? 

More than you’d think 

• Russell Wilson is 20–11 ATS when 

facing a foe that allows between 

22.9 to 28.9 PPG with the Seahawks 

winning by an average margin of 

12.1 PPG. 

• Winston’s quarterback rating is 75.2 

when a home underdog while Wilson’s 

rating is 99.4 as a road favorite 

• Buccaneers cornerback Brent 

Grimes might be on the sidelines, 

not a good situation for a defense 

that has to defend Jimmy Graham. 

The Wilson-to-Graham show has 

resulted in 197 receiving yards and 

three touchdowns in their last three 

games, (all wins and covers,) and 

I also note the Seahawks are 18–3 

straight up in November the past 

three seasons as well as 16–5 ATS. 

Last week’s selections and 

This Weeks Pick 

My selection on the Seahawks won 

last week and I’m now 1–1 ATS in the 

NFL. My College pick on Duke lost and 

I’m 0–2 with my College plays. 

With Wilson being healthy that eases 

pressure on Seattle’s offensive line 

plus Wilson and Graham are finally 

developing chemistry. I’m laying 

–5.5 at –116 and backing the Seattle 

Seahawks and hopefully when the gun 

sounds I won’t be singing that Beatles 

classic, “I Should Have Known Better!” 

Good luck this week! 

4

WINE AND WHINING 

WINE &WHINING 

by Neil Alexander 

It was psychologically difficult for me today as both LeSean 

McCoy and A.J. Green succumbed to injuries during 

the early games. No one wants to hear about my fantasy 

team shortcomings, but man was that ever a rough start. So 

much so, I had to put it away. The week was lost and it was 

time to prepare for Thanksgiving Week 12. But alas, even 

with Martellus Bennett in full blocking mode, somehow my 

fantasy team was able to squeak out an unlikely win. 

It was within this spirit that tonight’s offering had to check 

two boxes — 1. celebratory in nature, and 2. a decent 

pairing for sushi dinner. 

5

WINE AND WHINING 

Without A.J. Green and Gio Bernard, 

it’s time for the Bengals to pack it in. 

THE WINE 

I opted for a 2012 Adelsheim Chardonnay 

from Willamette Valley (that’s 

Will am it rhymes with damnit, and not 

will a met. 

It’s $50 in BC and so the expectations 

were significant. It’s a great food 

wine, with zippy acidity to serve as a 

palate cleanser between every bite 

of sushi. It didn’t receive much oak 

treatment, as the majority of the juice 

was fermented in stainless steel tanks 

and the rest in neutral barrels. Consequently, 

the natural apple, peach and 

pear fruit characteristics of the grapes 

shine through. No complaints here. 

For those that subscribe to the “no 

wood, no good” school of thought, it is 

best to look elsewhere. 

LOOKING AHEAD 

It’s a full slate of games this week, 

with all teams in action. There are the 

usual three games on Thanksgiving 

Thursday, a full slate on Sunday, 

followed by the requisite Monday 

nighter. 

If Week 10 was the week of parity and 

Week 11 the week of big favorites, 

then Week 12 is a blend of both. 

There are six games with a spread 

of 3.5 points or less, and another six 

games with a spread of 6.5 points or 

more. 

I’m not one to toot my horn but it’s 

been a pretty nice run the past few 

weeks in this column as I went 3-0 in 

Week 10 and 2-1 last week. Let the 

rock machine roll . . . 

NFL PICKS 

Washington +6.5 @ Dallas 

The Cowboys are 9-0-1 against the 

spread so far this year. It’s difficult to 

get in front of this train; however, I’ll 

take the 6.5 points as their division 

rivals roll into town. It just feels a little 

too much to me. The Washington football 

team is fresh off of two consecutive 

home wins and look to extend 

their streak on the road in Texas. 

Dallas has reeled off nine consecutive 

wins with Dak at the helm, and they 

beat the Washington professional 

football team by four points in Week 2. 

I look for the Dallas win but the Washington 

cover in a close Thanksgiving 

Day game. 

Cincinnati @ Baltimore -3.5 

The Bengals feel a little like the Packers 

to me this year. With no AJ Green, 

it’s a tall order to expect a road win. 

They are 0-4-1 against the spread 

while the Ravens are 3-2 at home 

against the spread. It feels like the 

Bengals have packed it in this season, 

and without their star wideout and 

Gio Bernard missing in the backfield, 

I look for Baltimore to get the cover. 

Lay the 3.5 points. 

Tennessee -2 @ Chicago 

This is a bet in equal measure against 

the Bears, as it is for the Titans. Look 

for the Titans to exploit a Bears defense 

that spends way too much time 

on the field thanks to their impotent 

offense. The Titans will bounce back 

from the loss at Indianapolis last 

week, with a ground and pound attack, 

wearing out the aforementioned 

Bears defense. A bargain at less than 

a field goal. Titans -2. 

Adelsheim are producers of great 

Oregon wines with a focus 

on quality over quantity. 

6

NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS 


– WEEK 12 

Minnesota at Detroit 

Line: Lions -2.5 

Over/Under: 43 

Set-up: There ‘s a lot riding on the 

Thanks giving Day kick-off game, 

as the se two vie for first place. The 

Lions are riding a three-game winning 

streak on T-Day and all three have 

been blo wouts - this after a stretch in 

which they sucked the life out of any 

Thanksgiving Day fun for their fans, 

dropping nine in a row. 

After a rough start to the season, 

the Lions have now reeled off a 5-1 

mark in their last six starts, including a 

dramatic 22-16 win in Minnesota three 

weeks ago. The Vikings broke a losing 

streak last week thanks to special 

teams and their defense. 

While Detroit wasn’t able to get to Bortles 

once in their last start, the D-line 

has been improving and now they face 

one of the worst O-lines in the league 

(Bradford has been sacked two or 

more times in six straight games). This 

will be a storyline throughout the game 

– the question is what can Minnesota 

do to counter balance? Can they get 

to Stafford? Can they handle what is 

a one-dimensional Detroit offense? 

Can the Minny D give their offense an 

extra possession or two? Can the D 

and special teams set them up with 

favorable field position? 

We’re answering yes to the above. Both 

teams have their flaws, but we like a Viking 

defense to be a difference maker. 

Suggested Play: Take the underdog 

Vikings 

Washington at Dallas 

Line: Cowboys -7 


Set-up: A lot has gone right for both 

of these teams so far this season, in 

particular Dallas. What initially looked 

like a disaster turned into one of those 

“blessing in disguise” stories, as Tony 

Romo’s pre-season injury set the stage 

for one of the greatest performances 

by a rookie QB the league has ever 

seen. Yes, it’s been that good. Now 

that Romo is healthy, he’s carrying the 

clipboard for Dak Prescott without any 

controversy around the situation. The 

offense is rolling, backed by that O-line. 

Rookie running back Elliott is making 

plays, Dak has all the time in the world 

to make reads and go through his progressions, 

and the receiving corps, led 

by Dez Bryant, are tough to cover. 

Speaking of tough to cover, Washington 

are turning into an offense that 

can create matchup problems as well. 

They have some balance and Kirk 

Cousins just keeps getting better. Oh, 

and for the second week in a row he’ll 

be facing a secondary dealing with a 

lot of injuries. 

7


This is a tough turnaround for the 

visitor, who played late in the Sunday 

nighter and now have a Thursday 

game. And while you might not think it 

makes much difference if you played 

early in the day Sunday or had the late 

slot – it does. 

That Dallas O-line gives us pause, 

as we look to take the points, but the 

Redskins should be able to give the 

Cowboys a real challenge – which 

hasn’t happened often, as the ‘Boys 

schedule has been lined with a lot of 

lightweights. We’ll back the underdog 

in this divisional rivalry. 

Suggested Play: Take Washington 

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis 

Line: Steelers -8.5 

Over/Under: 47.5 

Set-up: When this game first opened 

as Pittsburgh -3, we put a light circle on 

the home underdog, while waiting to 

hear what was happening with Andrew 

Luck. With Luck still in the league concussion 

protocol as we write this, it’s 

pretty clear he’s not going to play. 

On that news, the line jumped to the 

Steelers -8.5. The appeal of betting 

and watching this game has now 

evaporated. Two 5-5 teams, both with 

a lot higher aspirations, are in desperate 

need of a win. Pittsburgh were 

flying high until Big Ben went down and 

even though he’s back, their swagger 

hasn’t returned. They have a “gimme” 

win over the Browns as the lone W the 

past month. It hasn’t been pretty. 

The only thing keeping the Colts from 

a pall of hopelessness was the play of 

Luck and the good fortune of having 

the Jags and Texans as roommates in 

the AFC South. Now that their franchise 

QB is gone, the floor for how far 

Indy can fall just dropped through the 

basement. 

The Colts as a home dog are always 

attractive (9-1 ATS last 10 in this spot), 

but without the only player that keeps 

them competitive week in and week 

out, the Steelers are likely set to tee off. 

We won’t be going anywhere near it, 

but if you’re looking for guidance, we’ll 

have to side with the team likely to win. 

Suggested Play: Pittsburgh 

San Diego at Houston 

Line: Pick’em 


Set-up: Houston has been a tough out 

at home, banking a 5-0 record straight 

while going 4-0-1 against the spread. 

Now the competition in those five 

games hasn’t been overly onerous, but 

we don’t discount wins over the Chiefs 

and Titans. 

That said, we don’t trust them in this 

matchup. Aside from the Texans coming 

off a short week with travel and the 

Bolts being rested, this really comes 

down to San Diego’s offense vs. the 

Houston D. Can they continue to move 

the chains? We think so. And when 

you factor in the Chargers, who can 

actually defend the run, will load up to 

stop Lamar Miller, that means Osweiler 

will have to carry the load. Not encouraging. 

Suggested Play: Take the Chargers 

Tennessee at Chicago 

Line: Titans -4.5 


Set-up: Not excited about laying 

points on the road with the Titans, but 

Chicago’s performance, both recently 

and all-season, has been particularly 

noxious. 

This is another line that spiked up 

after injury news broke. The Bears’ 

weak lineup just keeps getting weaker. 

They’re missing pieces all over, including 

a QB who no one wants to play for 

and a number one receiver who rarely 

has an impact – but nonetheless, their 

absence does make them an easier 

opponent to play against. 

Tennessee’s running game, plus the 

emergence of Mariotta as a playmaker 

through the air, will create problems for 

the Chicago defense. 

The Titans have proven to be resilient 

after a loss (4-1 ATS so far this season). 

Coming off a loss last weekend in 

Indianapolis, look for them to bounces 

back vs. one of the weakest teams in 

the league. 

Suggested Play: Take the Titans 

Jacksonville at Buffalo 

Line: Bills -7.5 


Set-up: We liked the Jags plus-seven 

last week in Detroit and while they 

looked good to cover all game (until 

Detroit kicked a field goal with in the 

final minute), we settled for a push. 

We’re on Jacksonville plus the points 

again this week and do like getting 

the extra half point. Yes, the Jags are 

playing out the string, while Buffalo 

has something to play for after that 

win in Cincinnati last Sunday, but 

Jacksonville can hang around with 

Buffalo. Our power ratings and systems 

program point to an underdog 

play – count us in. 

Suggested Play: Take the Jaguars 

8


Cincinnati at Baltimore 

Line: Ravens -4 


Set-up: Asking a Flacco-led offense to 

cover 4 points is flirting with disaster, 

but yet, here we go. 

In reality, we’re asking Joe to not screw 

this up, while letting the very capable 

defense go about their business. The 

Bengals are watching their season slip 

away (or more accurately “watched” it 

go). AJ Green being gone is a big deal. 

Gio Bernard on the sideline is not in 

the same league obviously, but it does 

sting. The result is an already struggling 

offense heads out on the road to 

face a top-tier defense without a couple 

of top playmakers. Dalton barely holds 

it together with Green as his all-world 

go-to-guy – this isn’t good. 

Suggested Play: We’ll play on 

Baltimore 

Arizona at Atlanta 

Line: Falcons -4.5 


Set-up: Another tough spot for the 

Cardinals, taking on a rested Falcons 

group that can roll teams up. But as we 

did last week, we’re backing Arizona 

on the road (and hoping we don’t lose 

this one). 

Special team lapses and a pick six 

were the Cards undoing vs. Minnesota 

in Week 11. Atlanta doesn’t bring the 

same ammo on defense as the Vikings 

– but clearly their offense presents 

challenges that cause headaches for 

all their opponents. 

The combination of a Cardinal defense 

that can handle (not stop, but handle) 

the Falcons, with an offense that creates 

its own mismatches for the Atlanta 

D has us taking the 4.5 points. 

Suggested Play: Take the Cardinals 

San Francisco at Miami 

Line: Dolphins -7.5 


Set-Up: The Niners are definitely more 

competitive with Colin Kaepernick 

under center, but it’s all relative. They 

still can’t stop the run and the offense 

still has way too many stalled drives. A 

long trip out east to play an “early body 

clock” game vs. a solid home team 

isn’t a recipe for getting right. 

The Dolphin offense didn’t look good 

in the rain last week vs. LA, but this is 

a very different challenge. One, they’re 

home, where they’ve been chewing 

up yards like crazy on the ground. And 

two, the defense they face is a big step 

down in class from the Rams. Granted, 

this Dolphin defense has some issues 

of their own, but the 49ers’ offensive 

package just isn’t set-up to really take 

advantage of it. 

Suggested Play: Take the Dolphins 

LA Rams at New Orleans 

Line: Saints -7 


Set-up: The stout LA Ram defense 

won’t phase Drew Brees at home, 

as he’s already faced some of the 

toughest tests the league has to offer 

(see Broncos and Seahawks). We’re 

not saying it won’t be a test, but New 

Orleans will score some points We 

have real questions if the Rams can 

punch back...real questions. Even going 

up against a defense with holes, a 

Jared Goff-led group will sputter more 

often than not. Gurley will be the focus 

and as has been the case all year, 

facing stacked boxes has kept him in 

check. Add in the fact the Saints’ pass 

rush is coming to life, we see them 

harassing Goff most of the day in his 

first career road start. If New Orleans 

gets up, LA just doesn’t have the ability 

to chase them. 

Suggested Play: Take the Saints 

NY Giants at Cleveland 

Line: Giants -7 


Set-Up: The circus at QB continues 

for the Browns. None are any good 

and they haven’t figured out how to 

protect them. Whoever is taking snaps 

is under constant fire (it’ll be McCown 

on Sunday). The Giants are showing 

signs of a playoff run, but they can be 

so frustratingly inconsistent. Such is life 

with Eli as your QB. 

Hate laying seven points on the road 

and doing so when Eli is the guy you’re 

asking to help get the cover, but the 

disarray in Cleveland is too much to 

overlook. This isn’t a team we can 

hope hangs around for a backdoor 

cover. The Giants are better in every 

area. 

This game fits a couple of strong 

systems that point to an Under play, so 

we’ll be adding that as a Best Bet this 

week. 

Suggested Play: Take the Giants 

**Take the Under** Best Bet 

Seattle at Tampa Bay 

Line: Seahawks -6 


Set-up: The Bucs struggle at home, 

for whatever reason and they struggle 

against good defenses (more explainable). 

Today they’ll face a good defense. 

9


WE EXPECT CAM AND THE OFFENSE TO HAVE SUCCESS 

MOVING THE BALL VS. THIS RAIDER D - AND HE’LL LIKELY 

NEED TO AS THE PANTHER SECONDARY CAN BE EXPLOITED. 

This year they’ve had big problems 

moving the ball vs. Arizona and Denver. 

We expect the similar issues vs. the Seahawks. 

Tampa are coming off a pair of 

wins, one vs. the Bears and a road win 

at Arrowhead last week. QB Winston 

has avoided making big mistakes, but 

vs. one of the top-tier defenses in the 

game, this offense isn’t going to have 

the extra gear they need. And looking 

closer at Winston’s performance when 

he takes the field as a home dog, his 

passer rating is under 80. Mike Evans 

is an all-world receiver who Winston 

keeps feeding, but the Seattle secondary 

have a lot of experience making 

all-world receivers very ordinary. 

The usual factors make us a little 

nervous - the travel for a West Coast 

team, laying points on the road, etc., 

but with the way Wilson is playing and 

the continued elite level the D is at, 

we’ll side with a visitor we see winning 

the game handily. 

Suggested Play: Take Seattle 

Carolina at Oakland 

Line: Raiders -3.5 


Set-Up: Looking forward to this one. 

We expect Cam and the offense to 

have success moving the ball vs. this 

Raider D - and he’ll likely need to as 

the Panther secondary can be exploited. 

Still, whatever Carr does, we see 

Cam matching (hey, Osweiler looked 

good against Oakland last week). The 

Raiders are winning games, but they 

do seem to have to find new ways 

each week to pull out these victories. 

Getting a “W” after being outplayed 

has to catch up to you at some point 

doesn’t it? Like the road dog. 

Suggested Play: Take the underdog 

Panthers 

Kansas City at Denver 

Line: Broncos -3.5 


Set-Up: Denver, as always, will rely 

on their defense to get them through. 

They are coming off their bye and 

will be getting guys back (notably 

Aqib Talib), but this offense remains 

entirely manageable for a defense like 

the Chiefs. 

Kansas City hasn’t been right the last 

few weeks, including a bad loss at 

Arrowhead vs. the Bucs in Week 11 - 

and they rarely ever lose at home. But 

without their top corner to go heads up 

on Mike Evans and an Alex Smith pick 

late...there you go. Getting right on the 

road at Denver is a tough ask, but this 

isn’t a matchup KC can’t handle. Alex 

Smith hasn’t been horrible, but he’s 

far from impressive (and isn’t the only 

reason he has a starting job is because 

he doesn’t throw crushing interceptions 

late in games). It’s going to be tough 

for the Chiefs to create a lot of points, 

but the same can be said on the other 

side of the ball. We like the team getting 

more than a FG. 

Suggested Play: Kansas City 

New England at NY Jets 

Line: Patriots -8 


Set-Up: This is the Jets’ Super Bowl... 

so what. They’re bad and New England 

is good. And I’m guessing Brady 

and the Hoodie would like nothing 

more that to really stick it to them. But 

honestly, we don’t like either side – 

what we do like is this game to stay 

Under the total. 

Suggested Play: We’ll take the Jets 

**Take the Under** Best Bet 

Green Bay at Philadelphia 

Line: Eagles -4 


Set-Up: One more time. The last two 

weeks we’ve watched our Packer picks 

go bad. Real bad. Each time the Green 

Bay game comes up in our NFL Analysis 

meetings it’s a two-on-one dogfight, 

with two members of the team wanting 

to go against them and one holdout, 

still scrapping for them (me, the one 

doing the writing this week, is the holdout)...and 

here we go again. 

Yes, the Green Bay defense is awful. 

Yes, the Eagles have been pretty 

good at home this season...but is this 

Philadelphia offense, led by Carson 

Wentz, a beat-up running game and 

mediocre receiving threats capable of 

shredding a bad defense? Mmmmm, 

not so sure. As much as people might 

talk about Green Bay being a get-well 

card for Wentz, it’s not out of line to say 

Wentz and the Eagle offense could be 

a welcome-respite for the Packers. 

Philly hasn’t exactly been tearing it up 

lately. They’ve dropped five of their last 

seven and after that fast start, Wentz 

has been hovering near the bottom of 

the barrel when it comes to QB play 

(a passer rating that is lucky to hit 90 

most games). 

I’m backing Green Bay getting more 

than a field goal against a Philly team 

that isn’t all that scary to face right now. 

Suggested Play: Take the Packers 

+4. 

10

TOTALLY COVERED 

OVER/UNDER REPORT 

NFL WEEK 12 

by Jarvis Simes 

The eight revenge games from 

Week 11 finished with 3 Overs 

and 5 Unders, making that just 

the second “Under” week of revenge 

games for the 2016 season. 

As we mentioned last issue, the 

second-half of the season, since 2003, 

has normally produced a stronger concentration 

of Unders. With the current 

season still hitting roughly 18-percent 

higher than the 14-year average, we 

want to be on the lookout for potential 

line value on the “Under” with any team 

seeking revenge for a recent meeting 

(within the past two years). 

Nine games qualify this week including 

all three Thanksgiving Day matchups, 

and who can forget the way the past 

meeting between the Vikings and Lions 

ended! 

Minnesota at Detroit 


Detroit won the first meeting 22-16 in 

overtime after a dramatic fourth quarter 

comeback. The loss extended Minnesota’s 

losing streak to three-straight at 

the time and that one had to sting. This 

is a 3-week ‘Short Turnaround’ game, 

one of the angles that Greg Dempson 

made famous in Winner’s Edge 

magazine. Pertaining to this game, you 

want to consider a contrarian play on 

the over based simply on the fact that 

the first game was so low scoring. The 

recent record for this angle is 34 Overs, 

17 Unders and 2 Pushes. We will use 

this game as our Turkey Day play. 

Totally Covered Pick No. 1: Take 

the Over 

Washington at Dallas 


This total opened at 49.5 so the early 

birds are hitting the Over. The Cowboys 

are off a home fave win over 

Baltimore which puts them “live” in an 

“Over” angle that is 12 Overs and 4 

Unders since Thanksgiving Day 2003. 

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis 


Andrew Luck’s status is in doubt for 

this game and they won’t get any sympathy 

from Pittsburgh. The total has 

dropped from a preseason projection 

of 53 and the past five years, Indy has 

0 Overs and 7 Unders when seeking 

revenge at home on any total less than 

54. The Steelers beat Indianapolis 45- 

10 last December at Heinz Field. 

San Diego at Houston 


The Texans couldn’t make their last big 

drive count against Oakland Monday 

and conference home teams off a 

Monday Night Football road loss the 

past while have produced 1 Over and 

7 Unders. 

Tennessee at Chicago 


The Titans’ loss at Indianapolis ended 

11

TOTALLY COVERED 

a 7-game “Over” streak for the Titans. 

When the high rollers come crashing 

back to earth and then immediately face 

a non-conference opponent, the record 

since 2000 is 2 Overs and 10 Unders. 

Jacksonville at Buffalo 


Jacksonville is a walking blooper reel 

and conference dogs getting more 

than +7 points off a game where they 

missed at least one extra point have 

produced 4 Overs, 17 Unders and 1 

Push the past 15 years. 

Cincinnati at Baltimore 


Cincy swept the season series last 

year and have now won five-straight 

against their AFC North rival. The 

Bengals are a clear dog after their rash 

of injuries and when teams that have 

dominated an opponent for at least 

three-straight games are getting points 

on the road, the trend is 9 Overs and 

1 Under. This was “live” three times already 

this year and all three went over 

by an average of 7.7 points. 

Arizona at Atlanta 


The Falcons lead the NFL in scoring by 

nearly three points over the next closest 

team and when the total is 48 or 

more, home teams off a bye with this 

potent an offense score an average of 

32 points. The net result is 15 Overs 

and 7 Unders. 

San Francisco at Miami 


Non-conference home faves of any 

number have been riding a solid “Over” 

streak vs. west coast teams that are off 

a home game. Earlier battles this year 

such as Niners at Bills and Chargers at 

Falcons have helped pump this trend 

to 11 Overs and 1 Under since 2013. 

Los Angeles at New Orleans 


This seems like a high total considering 

the Rams’ cautious approach vs. 

Miami so I guess the expectation is 

that the Saints will do some serious 

scoring. Conference home faves off a 

Thursday nighter have 11 Overs and 

4 Unders the past two years including 

a record of 7 Overs and 1 Under when 

the total was 44 points or greater. 

New York Giants at Cleveland 


Cleveland wants to crack the goose 

egg and they’ll take desperate measures 

if necessary but as we saw last 

week, that desperation can just as 

easily backfire and turn into points for 

the opposition. This week’s trend is for 

winless non-conference dogs beyond 

the first month and the record is 8 

Overs and 3 Unders. 

Seattle at Tampa Bay 


Old school Winner’s Edge readers 

might remember a unique profile from 

10 years ago called ‘Earliest of the 

Late’. It focused on games in 4:05 

pm ET slot, had a huge record to the 

“Under” and is “live” in this matchup for 

conference home dogs. The updated 

record for games with a total of 45 or 

less is 3 Overs and 15 Unders. 

Carolina at Oakland 


The Panthers have played threestraight 

Unders ahead of this contest 

and each stayed at least a TD below 

the number. It has led to an almost 

identical total as Week 2, when 

Oakland and Atlanta combined for 

63 points. The Raiders have earned 

recognition as a legitimate playoff contender 

this year and are well worth the 

4-point spread, just keep in mind that 

HC Ron Rivera’s all-time record as a 

road dog of more than +3 is 14 Overs 

and 3 Unders. 

New England at New York Jets 


Divisional home dogs off a bye have 3 

Overs and 11 Unders when faced with 

revenge. 

Kansas City at Denver 


When the total is 40 or less the Broncos 

have produced 6 Overs and 1 

Under at home against the division off 

back-to-back road games. 

Green Bay at Philadelphia 


No one is relaxing in Packerville these 

days and it will be up to the offense if 

Green Bay plans to halt their longest 

losing streak since 2008. They qualify 

this week for an Over/Under system 

based on high Season Win Total projections 

and when these road teams are 

off a loss, they have produced 11 Overs 

and 2 Unders. Average totals were 47.6 

and games cleared by 11.2 points. 

Totally Covered Pick No. 2: Take 

the Over 

Record 

Last Week: 1-1 

Season Record: 2-1 

*** 

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis 

Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty 

Sports. Jarvis spent several years 

working with Winner’s Edge, focusing 

on NHL and pro football. A hardcore 

number cruncher, Jarvis is a certified 

SDQL Master and shares information 

@PickSixtySports as well as 

www.picksixtysports.com. 

12

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS 

BUCKEYE’S 

HOST 

MICHIGAN 

STATE IN A 

BATTLE TO 

GET TO THE 

FINAL FOUR 

This is the last game of the season for most college football teams — a final opportunity 

for seniors to take to the field and represent their school. Here are the 

final plays before the lucrative bowl season commences. 

#17 Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +8 

The Volunteers are a respectable 8-3 

overall this season, and 4-3 within the 

powerful SEC conference. However, 

they aren’t exactly road warriors. 

They’ve only ventured away from the 

friendly confines of home three times 

this season and have only one win to 

show for it. I don’t see too much changing 

in this road tilt. 

The Volunteers have surrendered 400+ 

rushing yards in their two recent home 

wins, which doesn’t bode well for a 

road victory. Vandy pose a legitimate 

threat to Tennessee as they run the 

ball well and play solid defense. 

Take Vandy +8. 

#5 Washington -6 @ 

#23 Washington St. 

State bragging rights are up for grabs 

in the 109th Apple Cup as Washington 

St. Cougars host the Huskies. Both 

teams share identical 7-1 conference 

records, however overall at 10-1, the 

Huskies have the superior record with 

their only blemish, a loss to USC. 

The Huskies are capable of a title run, 

and this is a must win if they want to 

advance to the college football final 

four. With a Huskies win, up next is the 

Pac-12 title game. Factor in that either 

Ohio St or Michigan will lose this week, 

and Washington has a legitimate shot 

at the final four. 

Lean Washington -6. 

#3 Michigan @ #2 Ohio St. -6.5 

It doesn’t get much bigger than this in 

the Big 10 as Ohio St hosts Michigan. 

It’s pretty much make or break week as 

the loser is likely out of the top 4 picture 

and the chance at ultimate college 

football glory. 

State have beaten the Wolverines 

four consecutive times, but this is the 

biggest test to date as the Wolverines 

have a veteran team that matches up 

well to the Buckeyes. 

It’s no slam-dunk, but given the advantages 

of home cooking, and the home 

field crowd noise, we lean toward the 

Buckeyes. 

Take Ohio St. -6.5. 

13

THREE-DOWN FOOTBALL 

104th GREY CUP 

Standing between the Ottawa 

Redblacks and their first Grey Cup 

in franchise history is a team being 

called one of the best ever. 

The Calgary Stampeders have lost 

two games all season. They’ve 

clearly been the class of the league 

and nothing about that changed last 

weekend, when they easily handled 

the BC Lions. After all the talk about 

rust, and bye weeks, and not having 

played a competitive game in a month, 

the Stamps put it all to rest from the 

opening whistle. 

Now they arrive in Toronto as 9-point 

favorites over an Ottawa team making 

a return trip to the big game. Last 

November QB Henry Burris and the 

RedBlacks were dealt a heartbreaking 

loss by the Edmonton Eskimos. 

There’ll be a lot of talk of unfinished 

business and not settling for second 

place again, but reality can be a cold 

one. This 2016 Stampeders team 

THERE’LL BE A 

LOT OF TALK 

OF UNFINISHED 

BUSINESS AND 

NOT SETTLING 

FOR SECOND 

PLACE AGAIN, 

BUT REALITY 

CAN BE A 

COLD ONE. 

Even without their touchdown horse, the Stampeders should have plenty to celebrate. 

present real challenges to the whole 

“unfinished business” narrative. 

That said, we appreciate Ottawa 

are not coming to Toronto with any 

thoughts of “just being happy to be 

here”, which does account for something. 

However, what it doesn’t account 

for is the fact Calgary has an edge over 

them in virtually every key head-tohead 

matchup. Oh, and the Stampeders 

will also not be giddy about simply 

making the Grey Cup and feeling like 

they accomplished something by just 

punching that ticket. This is a team that 

has been on a collision course with the 

final game of the season since back 

in June. At no point has anyone in this 

organization thought an appearance 

here constitutes a successful season - 

it’s gotta be a win or this will feel like a 

real letdown. 

The big underdog role suits Ottawa 

just fine. They’ll embrace the storyline 

and try to use that for motivation. The 

Lions did the same last week, talking 

about proving people wrong and that 

whole “us against the world” routine. 

It didn’t matter and we don’t see it 

making much difference after kick-off 

on Sunday. 

The Stampeders depth, preparation 

and execution will serve them well. 

This is a lot of points to lay in any 

game, but particularly one of the 

championship variety. We’d love to 

make a case for the underdog, but 

breaking everything down, the crazy 

thing is, laying only nine looks like it 

offers value. The Stamps win a lot and 

cover the points a lot (19-7 against 

the spread in their last 26 games). It’s 

going to be tough for Ottawa to hang 

in there. 

Suggested Grey Cup Play: 

We’ll lay the points and take the 

Stampeders. 

14

THANKSGIVING 

WEEKEND NHL PLAYS 

So close – it was a pretty good week overall for this page, 

but that three-goal lead the Canucks gave up to Chicago last 

Saturday night took a bit of the shine off. Still, overall, we 

ended up with a nice profit and battled back out of the hole 

we dug the previous week. 

15

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS 

THE BLUE JACKETS HAVE BEEN ONE OF 

THE HOTTEST TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE, 

WHICH HOPEFULLY GIVES US A GOOD 

NUMBER TO PLAY AGAINST THEM 

IN THIS SPOT. 

On to this week’s analysis and plays. There 

weren’t a lot of matchups we felt good about 

from the schedule, resulting in only four 

suggested picks. 

Happy Thanksgiving to all our American readers. 

Have a great week. 

Friday, November 25th 

NY Rangers vs. Philadelphia 

Find the Rangers in the standings and then 

look down, way down and you’ll see the Philadelphia 

Flyers. The exercise will tell you a lot 

about the first couple of months of the season 

for these two teams: Rangers very good... 

Philly not very good. 

But this spot interests us for a play on the 

home side. They catch New York off a homeand-home 

vs. the Penguins, and while this 

would be a stronger situation if the Blueshirts 

were facing a low-level non-conference opponent, 

we still like it enough with a struggling 

conference foe. Philly should be game for a 

spirited effort in front of the hometown fans in a 

mid-afternoon tilt the day after Thanksgiving. 

Now all bets are off if you hear former captain 

Mike Richards is in town visiting the boys and 

taking them out for a Thanksgiving night cap... 

but aside from that, we like the home team to 

show up. 

Take the Flyers. 

Saturday, November 26th 

Columbus vs. Florida 

The Blue Jackets have been one of the 

hottest teams in the league, which hopefully 

gives us a good number to play against them 

in this spot. Columbus will be coming off a 

game last night vs. Tampa Bay, making this 

the second of back-to-back nights in the Sunshine 

State. 

Florida haven’t been enjoying the same 

success as of late, scuffling along as opposed 

to building any real momentum. They’re 

currently looking up the standings to see the 

Jackets, but they’ve been solid at home this 

year and ice a lineup that does enjoy some 

favorable head-to-head matchup edges. With 

last change, as the host, they should be able 

to take advantage. 

We’ll play the Panthers on the moneyline if 

the number is -120 or less (might be a little 

hopeful), but if we can’t get it there, we will 

be taking the home team laying the -.5 goal 

and getting nice plus money (the play there is 

Florida to win in regulation). 

Play Florida, as per the above 

Chicago at Los Angeles 

Good spot for the Kings to get a little revenge 

for a 3-0 loss the Blackhawks handed 

them a few weeks ago. Chicago arrives 

in LA at the end of a long seven-game 

road trip. The Kings are 

16

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS 

KIngs’ fans could have a little dish of revenge to cheer about 

GOOD SPOT 

FOR THE 

KINGS TO 

GET A LITTLE 

REVE NGE FOR 

A 3-0 LOSS 

THE BLACK- 

HAWKS 

HANDED 

THEM A FEW 

WEEKS AGO. 

a tough team to play against at home, even 

if for the top lineups in the league, if you’re 

fatigued. They’ll grind you down. And factor in 

a game against a heavy Ducks team the day 

before – this will be a tuckered out Hawks side 

ready for home. We should get attractive odds 

on the Kings. 

Take LA 

Monday, November 28th 

Calgary at NY Islanders 

Calgary will be ready for home, while the Islanders 

will be eager to pick up two points vs. 

a team they should beat in this spot. There’s 

nothing sexy about hosting the Flames (playing 

without Johnny Hockey to boot) for an 

Eastern Conference team – don’t expect the 

fan base to be energized. 

But when you’re a bottom-feeder, these are 

the situations you have to take care of business 

if you hope to salvage anything from the 

season. Right now there aren’t a lot of teams 

and scenarios that come up for the Islanders 

that are “plus” matchups - this is one. 

Yes, we do have some anxiety due to this 

being the first game back home from a west 

coast road trip for New York and they have 

Pittsburgh on deck, but c’mon, these are two 

points ready for the taking. Step up and grab 

them. 

We’ll play the Islanders. 

Record: 

Last week: 4-2 

Season: +.30 units on the season 

17

FUTURES FORAY 

LONG SHOT 

AFC SUPER BOWL BET? 

Following last week’s look at the NFC, it’s time to ruminate on the potential 

AFC Super Bowl representatives. 

The Pats are the obvious AFC contestant for this year’s Super Bowl. Tom 

Brady is on an FU mission to prove King Goodell and the rest of the NFL family 

that they were wrong in suspending him this season. 

That said, at -110 there is no value with this bet. With three strong teams in the 

AFC West, it’s conceivable that if New England has to venture out on the road in 

the conference final, they can be beaten. Factor in the oft-injured Gronk, and a 

porous defensive line, and it’s clear that there is more value to be found elsewhere 

on the board. 

Turning to the AFC West. KC, Oakland, and Denver are all within striking 

distance of the Pats for the #1 seed, and barring any major setbacks, are all 

likely headed to the playoffs. Vegas can’t decide as all of them have 8-1 odds to 

win the conference championship. Of the three I prefer the Broncos. Denver’s 

defense is top five in yards allowed per game, and first against the pass. They 

won with this defensive formula last season, and the possible return of RB CJ 

Anderson before the start of the playoffs will provide them with a massive boost. 

Oakland’s defense is electric, but their defense is porous, to say the least. The 

Chiefs are the consummate successful regular season team — they don’t do 

anything great on defense or offense, but are more or less solid across the 

Quoth the Ravens, once again? 

YES THE RAVENS ARE 

A LONG SHOT TO WIN 

THE AFC CONFERENCE, 

BUT REALLY, BESIDES 

THE PATRIOTS, SO IS 

EVERYONE ELSE. 

board. Certainly not the team that 

can put together a playoff win streak. 

Given the vagaries of these 8-1 

options, I am looking at longer odds 

for the team that emerges from the 

AFC North. Trouble is, given the 

strength of the AFC West; only one 

of Pittsburgh or Baltimore is getting 

out of this division — the former 

paying 10-1 and the latter 20-1. 

I’m not buying the Steelers this year, 

as they’ve been inconsistent on 

both sides of the ball this year. That 

leaves the 20-1 Ravens. Yes, they 

are a long shot to win the conference, 

but really, besides the Patriots, so 

is everyone else. The Ravens have 

a mediocre offense but can make 

opportune big plays when required. 

More importantly though is the 

strength of their defense. They rank 

second in overall yards per game 

allowed, and first in rushing yards per 

game, even after getting roughed up 

in Dallas last week. Winter is coming! 

The bad weather is upon us and 

teams try to run in these conditions. 

Against Baltimore’s stout defense, 

this will prove to be challenging. Give 

me the Ravens at 20-1. 

18

WINFO #12

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?