WINFO #12

FUTURES FORAY
LONG SHOT
AFC SUPER BOWL BET?
Following last week’s look at the NFC, it’s time to ruminate on the potential
AFC Super Bowl representatives.
The Pats are the obvious AFC contestant for this year’s Super Bowl. Tom
Brady is on an FU mission to prove King Goodell and the rest of the NFL family
that they were wrong in suspending him this season.
That said, at -110 there is no value with this bet. With three strong teams in the
AFC West, it’s conceivable that if New England has to venture out on the road in
the conference final, they can be beaten. Factor in the oft-injured Gronk, and a
porous defensive line, and it’s clear that there is more value to be found elsewhere
on the board.
Turning to the AFC West. KC, Oakland, and Denver are all within striking
distance of the Pats for the #1 seed, and barring any major setbacks, are all
likely headed to the playoffs. Vegas can’t decide as all of them have 8-1 odds to
win the conference championship. Of the three I prefer the Broncos. Denver’s
defense is top five in yards allowed per game, and first against the pass. They
won with this defensive formula last season, and the possible return of RB CJ
Anderson before the start of the playoffs will provide them with a massive boost.
Oakland’s defense is electric, but their defense is porous, to say the least. The
Chiefs are the consummate successful regular season team — they don’t do
anything great on defense or offense, but are more or less solid across the
Quoth the Ravens, once again?
YES THE RAVENS ARE
A LONG SHOT TO WIN
THE AFC CONFERENCE,
BUT REALLY, BESIDES
THE PATRIOTS, SO IS
EVERYONE ELSE.
board. Certainly not the team that
can put together a playoff win streak.
Given the vagaries of these 8-1
options, I am looking at longer odds
for the team that emerges from the
AFC North. Trouble is, given the
strength of the AFC West; only one
of Pittsburgh or Baltimore is getting
out of this division — the former
paying 10-1 and the latter 20-1.
I’m not buying the Steelers this year,
as they’ve been inconsistent on
both sides of the ball this year. That
leaves the 20-1 Ravens. Yes, they
are a long shot to win the conference,
but really, besides the Patriots, so
is everyone else. The Ravens have
a mediocre offense but can make
opportune big plays when required.
More importantly though is the
strength of their defense. They rank
second in overall yards per game
allowed, and first in rushing yards per
game, even after getting roughed up
in Dallas last week. Winter is coming!
The bad weather is upon us and
teams try to run in these conditions.
Against Baltimore’s stout defense,
this will prove to be challenging. Give
me the Ravens at 20-1.
18