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POLITICAL REALIGNMENTS WILL
HAPPEN IN 2017
The cracks in the seams of the APC appeared
almost as soon as it won power in the jostling
for the National Assembly and then in the
ministerial nomination process. By the end of
2016, the party is pulling apart at the seams.
By 2017, in preparation for the electioneering
and campaigning of 2018, the blocks that
make up the APC will pull apart and the core
of the CPC which holds the executive plus
those directly involved in the government
will be left in the APC while the other factions
are likely to band with PDP member who are
tired of the infighting in the PDP to form a
new party, leaving the husk of the old PDP
with one faction, and essentially condemning
the once largest political party in Africa to
terminal decline. This will set the stage for
the two blocs that will enter campaigning
in 2018. As these realignments happen, a
cabinet reshuffle will happen to reflect the
new political realities and dismissed ministers
will be the scapegoats, to hang responsibility
of administration points of failure on.
Based on what we have seen in 2016, there
will be further use of state security agencies
to settle the more pronounced political scores
in 2017. We do not however see political risk
in 2017 increasing much further beyond 2016
levels.
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