Understanding the Fundamentals of Epidemiology an evolving text

Iran, 1998
Influence of population age composition
Since rates of most diseases and medical conditions, injuries, and health-related phenomena such as
violence vary greatly by age, a population’s age structure affects much more than its growth rate. As
the 76 million “Boomers” in the post-World War II baby boom cohort to which President Bill
Clinton belongs have moved up through the population pyramid, as a pig which has been swallowed
by a python, they expanded school and university enrollments, created an employment boom first in
obstetrics, pediatrics, construction, urban planning, and diaper services, and subsequently increased
demand for baby clothes, toys, appliances, teachers, school buildings, faculty, managers, automobile
dealers, managers, health professionals, and investment counselors.
But in their wake, the Boomers have faced the contraction of many of those employment
opportunities as their larger numbers and the smaller job-creating needs of the following generation
increased competition at every stage. On the horizon are substantial increases in the need for
geriatricians and retirement facilities, providing more employment opportunity for the generations
that follow the Boomers but also a heavier burden for taxes and elder-care. A baby “boomlet” is
also moving up the pyramid, as the Boomers’ children create an “echo” of the baby boom.
The baby boom is a key contributor to the projected shortfalls in funding for Social Security,
Medicare, and pensions in the coming decades. The following projections were made several years
ago but are still relevant:
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www.epidemiolog.net, © Victor J. Schoenbach 1999, 2000 3. Studying populations - basic demography - 36
rev. 1/17/2000, 8/16/2000, 3/9/2001