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Understanding the Fundamentals of Epidemiology an evolving text

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<strong>an</strong>d<br />

R111 = R100 × R010 × R001 / (R000) 2 (M6)<br />

Again, <strong>the</strong>re is a baseline risk or rate in <strong>the</strong> denominator <strong>of</strong> each relative risk, so when <strong>the</strong> relative<br />

risks are converted to risks, <strong>the</strong> R000 in <strong>the</strong> numerator eliminates one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> resulting three R000's,<br />

leaving two remaining in <strong>the</strong> denominator. As before, "by itself" me<strong>an</strong>s without o<strong>the</strong>r specified<br />

factors, but including baseline risk.<br />

Note, however, that <strong>the</strong> multiplicative model c<strong>an</strong> also be written as <strong>an</strong> additive model on <strong>the</strong><br />

logarithmic scale (because addition <strong>of</strong> logarithms is equivalent to multiplication <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir arguments):<br />

ln(R111) = ln(R100) + ln(R010) + ln(R001) – 2 × ln(R000) (M7)<br />

For this reason, <strong>the</strong> difference between <strong>the</strong> additive <strong>an</strong>d multiplicative models c<strong>an</strong> be characterized<br />

as a tr<strong>an</strong>sformation <strong>of</strong> scale. So "effect modification" is scale-dependent.<br />

Optional aside – It c<strong>an</strong> also be shown that a multiplicative model c<strong>an</strong> be expressed as <strong>an</strong><br />

additive model on <strong>the</strong> natural scale plus <strong>an</strong> interaction term. For two factors: (R10 –<br />

R00)(R01 – R00)/R00, or equivalently, (R00)(RR10–1)(RR01–1) – essentially, we add a "fudge<br />

factor".<br />

Additive model:<br />

R11 = R10 + R01 – R00<br />

Additive model with interaction term:<br />

R11 = R10 + R01 – R00 + R00 × (RR10–1) × (RR01–1)<br />

Multiplying out <strong>the</strong> interaction term:<br />

R11 = R10 + R01 – R00 + R00 × RR10 × RR01 – R00 × RR10 – R00 × RR01 + R00<br />

Dividing both sides by R00:<br />

RR11 = RR10 + RR01 – 1 + RR10 × RR01 – RR01 – RR10 + 1<br />

Simplifying:<br />

_____________________________________________________________________________________________<br />

www.epidemiolog.net, © Victor J. Schoenbach 12. Multicausality: Effect modification - 403<br />

rev. 11/5/2000, 11/9/2000, 5/11/2001

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