04022017

20—SATURDAY Vanguard, FEBRUARY 4, 2017
The Vampire is on the loose. And jitters
have spread. He can’t remember just
how many he has killed and how many
millions ,in ransom, he has collected. They are
too many to be remembered. But he remembers
coming to Lagos and storming the house of
one of his girl friends and killing the girl and
everyone in the house. Everything he does, he
does savagely. The girl, he alleged, stole his
45 million naira. And he executed her family.
Not that he has earned any money in his entire
life - his criminal career started precociously
at age 11. When the DSS snared and caged
him a year ago, his criminal career seemed all
but ended. And the region heaved a sigh of
relief. That was before he bought over the
whole prison. Many accounts suggest
imprisonment didn’t dampen his criminal
propensity. With a prison system that has too
many officials available , ready to be bought
and hired, Chibueze Henry’s wings didn’t
remain clipped for long.
But the only difference between Vampire and
many other lords that litter our rickety prison
system is his extreme ruthlessness which
attracts notoriety. Others otherwise as
imperious are scattered all over the nation,
quietly, dominating the prisons and running
rings around the law. Corruption doesn’t just
birth impunity it fattens it to dangerous sizes.
Vampire’s gang strolled into the Owerri high
court last week , shot at hapless warders, took
away Vampire and set 48 others criminals
fluttering away. Judges hiding under tables
isn’t a good sight . But corruption ultimately
leads to the desecration of the sacred. The
judges that day squirreled into holes. The
amoured police vehicle kept at the Judiciary
gates stood like a statue while policemen
dropped their guns and fled. Evidently ,
corruption, in the end, endangers everyone.
A free ravenous vampire is an apocalyptic
nightmare. Witnesses, security officials, real
and imagined enemies are all vulnerable. It
is reported that in the melee that gang foisted
on the Owerri high court that evil day, he found
the composure to personally shoot a particular
prison warder. That in itself tells the danger.
The very notion that a serial murderer in prison
can break loose so easily, in the vicinity of the
seat of government in Owerri, is as sickening
as it is frightening. Every criminal justice
system relies on witnesses , police and judicial
officers who must trust the system for their
safety. This case is a national security priority.
The state government scrambled a security
The Vampire and the torn nests of
Nigeria’s prisons
meeting and placed a paltry 5m naira on such
an enormous head. The prison Comptroller
General rose from his slumber in Abuja to
carry out pretentious raids at the Owerri
prisons. He found hundreds of mobile phones
and laptops, concrete evidences of the
entrenched laxity that enabled Vampire.
Without strict supervision, the prisons can
become criminal heavens. And thoroughly,
Kirikiri maximum prison has become such a
center. But rather than institute proper inquiries
into the Vampire escape and improve the
system through scientific findings, shallow
makeshift measures , by people worried only
about their jobs will prevail. And the prisons
will continue their decay.
The decay in the prisons is systemic and
pervasive. That Owerri prison , like the Kirikiri
, is so overcrowded that no meaningful
rehabilitation can commence there. The
overcrowding exists because too many people
who have no business being in prison are in
prison. Our slovenly criminal justice process
has only one conveyor belt. People are
remanded in prison for minor infractions, for
meager unsettled fines. Only an insignificant
minority of inmates are convicts. But many
handed custodial sentences could have been
processed differently. Our probation service is
almost non existent, so community service as
a retributive option is hardly explored. Without
efficient state counsels for indigent accused
persons many are left to rot in prison because
they have no legal representation. Some on
remand now live perpetually in the prisons,
their case files have gone missing for years.
Those in prison therefore feel no need for
repentance. They only feel unlucky. The
A ‘good’ bed space will cost you
250,000 naira at the KiriKiri
maximum prison. This was the
price before the fall of the naira.
Your options are few. You could
be kept in the condemned
prisoners cell. There, you will
meet a leaking bucket of urine
and faeces in a room meant for
one occupied by eight.
overcrowding of the prison may not be directly
responsible for Vampire’s escape but it helps
create and diffuses cynicism which affects even
the warders and corrodes integrity.
Our prisons are old and poorly maintained.
The inmates are shabbily treated. No ethical
codes can thrive where chaos , physical and
psychological , has taken root. Basic rights are
sold and bought as privileges. Human dignity
is made utterly negotiable, dispensable. If the
prisons had good livable accommodation,
inmates won’t live like animals in pens and
warders won’t metamorphose into
extortionists. If the warders were properly
trained and adequately motivated they won’t
let their wives become petty contractors and
food hawkers in prisons. And how can the
quality of food served prisoners ever improve
when warders supplement their income selling
food to inmates.
Corruption thrives so brazenly in our prisons
it squelches all seeds of correction sown in
those prisons. The corruption in the prisons is
a shade more sinful than that at police
roadblocks. The victimization of incarcerated
poor people under all circumstances is
extraordinarily heinous. The inmates are not
just more vulnerable than motorists, they are
perpetually vulnerable behind high walls and
iron bars. You go to visit an inmate in any
Nigerian prison you are compelled to pass
through two toll gates. So you must shed at
least 200 naira per visit per person. And it
happens in the open and in every prison.
Institutionalized corruption doesn’t fret. A
‘good’ bed space will cost you 250,000 naira at
the KiriKiri maximum prison. This was the
price before the fall of the naira. Your options
are few. You could be kept in the condemned
prisoners cell. There, you will meet a leaking
bucket of urine and faeces in a room meant for
one occupied by eight. The condemned
prisoners cell? Don’t go there! Its very existence
is a crime against humanity. What the general
prison environment does is to foster a confused
moral climate that cannot help a convict find
redemption.
Prisons all over the world are called colleges
of crime for a reason. But our prisons that do
not even pretend to be rehabilitative must be
flourishing crime colleges. We must hesitate
therefore to send youngsters guilty of
misdemeanors to our poorly supervised, soulseering
prisons. A free intercourse between a
criminal like Vampire and our merely rascally
but incarcerated youths in Owerri prison must
be forbidden. The society must then rethink
how it processes youth crimes even before it
begins to rebuild the prisons.
Vampire’s reign in Owerri prison is tragically
familiar. It is hoped his escape doesn’t herald a
new trend. The society celebrates money. The
warders who granted him special privileges
aren’t a few bad apples. The tree is rotten, root
and branch. Petty thieves must have watched
in envy as he dominated the prison. The idea
that crime pays and pays even in prison is
unfortunately in our country. His escape is a
lesson for the criminal justice system and the
society. The worship of money is the root of all
evil.
My condolences to all the victims of that
attack.
OPEC and America tangle in web of output
Recently oil prices found a bracer
from production cuts by the
Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries, OPEC and other
producers. The OPEC and non-OPEC
producers agreed to output reduction
in November 2016, to shore up prices
that plummeted in July 2014. The
OPEC attempt to reclaim price seemed
to have fired another salvo that has
pitted its wit against American shale. A
price war seems to be brewing over the
production cuts that took effect last
January.
Two years on negotiations by OPEC
Ministers culminated in last November’s
Vienna meeting deal in hand for
production cuts to shore up prices. The
successful dousing of production output
and market share tensions from OPEC
producers reverberated in the United
States which brought a renewal of
interest in shale production hitherto in
limbo. Projections are that prices in the
high 50s or low 60s would attract more
American investors deploying
technology to bring more rigs to
production. Many are however
watching their flanks because the second
half of the preceding year showed
perceived signs of good tidings which
became turbulent.
OPEC’s production cut may be
heading for the rocks with the American
shale producers benefiting from the
higher prices of oil freeze. The US shale
output is increasing just as the oil cartel
commenced output cut from the 1.8
million barrels per day, MMbpd agreed
to by OPEC and non-OPEC. Again the
new administration of President Donald
Trump is bent on increasing output of
petroleum with his ‘America First
Energy Plan.’ This may again trigger
another round of animosities
reminiscent of the last six years price
war between OPEC led by Saudi Arabia
and the United States.
The United States drillers tested their
might in output control from their ‘fracking’
shale oil technology that outpaced global
oil supply from January 2011 to June 2014,
to make America the number one oil
producer. The retaliation by Middle East
producers’ led by Saudi Arabia between
June 2014 and September 2015, led to
increased production to dwarf the
America’s dream. The richer ones from the
Gulf States went along with the Saudis in
the market share battle, while the poorer
members of OPEC reluctantly accepted; a
decision that became an evil with many oil
dependent nations experiencing economic
crises.
But who wins the price-giver battle is
again the controversy in the offing with
International oil price rally
this year will depend on
oil-producing nations
upholding their side of
the bargain to cut
1.8MMbpd from supplies
globally
global expectations that American shale
output would increase this year. The battle
appears to have been drawn on the board
game over which capture may checkmate
the opponent’s king. Many OPEC members
including Saudi Arabia had bitter
experiences when oil prices crashed.
Commentators believe that the marketshare
war involve too many unknowns.
Based on the economics of petroleum
production, it was thought that the price
range of $50 to $60 meant that American
shale producers and investors would be out
of business. The Saudis according to expert
report made sure that the low oil price drop
lasts enough to exhaust oil pricing hedges,
enough to cause banks to tighten credit, and
cause investors to withdraw.
The cost of Saudi production is between
$10 and $15 a barrel. The Saudis, the key
player in OPEC did not reduce production
in the face of global glut to get Americans
out of production. To produce Bakken shale
at the wellhead in 2014 was US$59.03 the
breakeven cost per barrel, on average, which
fell to $29.44 in 2016, according to
consultancy Rystad Energy. Bakken is the
most competitive of major U.S. shale though
they pay more to transport crude to market
than producers in most other U.S. regions.
In spite of the 2014 uncontrolled output
that drove some producers out of the market
the two-year price war made shale producers
more resilient and a stronger rival. Improved
technology and drilling techniques have
boosted efficiency for the North Dakota
Bakken shale and the entire U.S. oil industry.
A price of $45 a barrel is enough for Bakken
producers to profit and $55 would
encourage production growth, said Ness.
Petroleum Economist surveyed six banks
and consultancies with Energy Aspects
having the most bullish; forecasting an
international benchmark for Brent will
average almost US$66 per barrel in 2017
while BNP Paribas is the most bearish, with
an average of US$50 per barrel across the
year. Last year’s average was $43.55bpd. Oil
prices had marginal falls this week with WTI
closing at US$53.57 on Thursday fueling
speculations that the US recovery mode may
out way that of OPEC and non-OPEC supply
cut deals.
Is global crude oil price likely to
experience another bearish spiral? From
experts that track OPEC supply, compliance
in OPEC target of 1.2 MMbpd cut by the
first half of 2017 is believed to have recorded
82 percent supply cut at 984,000 bpd by the
end of January 2017. The Americans have
increased rig deployments far and above
their 2016 levels with the number of oil rigs
deployed by last week put at 566 as against
498 for the same period last year.
It is however not certain whether there
would be significant difference in the
projected global oil consumption estimated
for about 95.41 million barrels per day in
2017 up from the 2016 demand of 94.26
MMbpd, a projection in the OPEC Monthly
Oil Market Report published in August 2016.
The OPEC deal is to cut 1.8 MMbpd from
global output from January to end a twoyear
excess that brought down prices.
A successful implementation of this target
would replace more than half the barrels
OPEC promised to eliminate from the
market. International oil price rally this year
will depend on oil-producing nations
upholding their side of the bargain to cut
1.8MMbpd from supplies globally.
Iran was mandated to maintain
production below a threshold of 3.8 MMbpd
just below the 2012 sanctions output of
4MMbpd. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan
Zanganeh said that crude production had
reached 3.9 MMbpd to restore market links
with Europe and Asia. When OPEC met in
Vienna, Nigeria was given exempt
status after suffering a year of violence and
outages from the activities of Niger Delta
militants. President Muhammadu Buhari
believes output can reach 2.2MMbpd.
Evan Kelly of Oilprice.com reports that
veteran energy trader Martin Tillier admits
that while fundamental analysis usually
outweighs technical analysis, there is a very
strong case for a correction in crude. Tillier
sees increased global demand figures along
with OPEC cuts as bullish long term
fundamentals, but finds short term technical
more decisive in the near term.
Who wins this war between the shalemen
and the sheikhs in OPEC? It appears the
American deployment of technology may be
a problem for OPEC. President Trump is
bent on reducing oil imports; so relying less
on OPEC to meet domestic needs. Although
the Saudis have enough fiscal sovereign
reserves to gamble, the oilmen of Dakota
since 2010, have new wells more than ten
times Arabian score.