Change

Global Investor 1.17, January 2017 

Expert know-how for Credit Suisse investment clients 

INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS & PRODUCTS 

Change 

Solutions for a better world 

Yoshiyuki Sankai Asimov was right: how robots can help to ensure 

a better future. Fabian Waltert Looking for a housing solution? 

Think small. No, smaller. Uwe Neumann The advent of digital farming. 

Henry Siu Redistribution between generations binds society together.

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As a result, investors should be aware that CS may have a conflict of interest that 

could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only 

a single factor in making their investment decision. For a discussion of the risks 

of investing in the securities mentioned in this report, please refer to 

the following Internet link: https://research.credit-suisse.com/riskdisclosure.

GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —03 

Responsible for coordinating 

the focus themes in this issue 

CHRISTINE SCHMID is Head of Global 

Equity & Credit Research at Credit 

Suisse International Wealth Management. 

She has 23 years of experience and 

covers the financials sector. She holds an 

MA in Economics from the University 

of Zurich and is a CFA Charterholder. 

RETO HESS is a senior research 

analyst at Credit Suisse International 

Wealth Management with 12 years 

of experience in equity research and 

investment management. He heads the 

Global Equity Research team and 

covers the European and US industrials 

sector. Further, Reto is a CFA and 

CAIA Charterholder and holds a Master of 

Science from the University of Zurich, 

Switzerland. 

Photo: Steve Vidler / Alamy Stock Foto; Illustration: Martin Mörck 

UWE NEUMANN is a senior research 

analyst in the Global Equity & Credit 

Research team at Credit Suisse International 

Wealth Management, covering 

the telecom and technology sectors. 

He has 29 years of experience in the 

securities and banking business, holds 

a Master of Economics from the University 

of Constance, Germany, and is a CEFA 

Charterholder. 

The majority of citizens in today’s Western democracies are concerned, 

and even fearful, about the effects of globalization, digitization 

and a rapidly aging society. A desire for deglobalization and multipolarity 

and a determination to “put one’s own country first” have 

come into sharp focus. Well-educated white-collar workers – the 

middle class – see themselves at risk of losing their job as digitization 

progresses. Moreover, aging populations in most countries are likely 

to place an immense burden on healthcare, social and pension 

systems in the future. Global central banks’ very accommodative monetary 

policy has already weakened social and pension systems, putting 

pressure on future expected income. 

The prosperity that has been achieved since the middle of the last 

century is built on a generational contract which, given today’s challenges, 

needs to be redefined. Education for the young is still funded 

by the older generations, but the required skill set for today’s job market 

and that of the future will force us to rethink our education system 

to better align it with the changed environment. Pension systems 

and social systems were built on assumptions of infinite economic 

growth, but global resources are finite. Thus, the new generational 

contract must be based on the premise of ensuring a sustainable 

economy. 

These changes open up business opportunities for companies and 

sectors alike, with the economy serving as a solution provider, and 

policy makers pushing for a framework that allows everyone to prosper. 

Consumers drive success through demand and spending. 

A number of sectors are poised to deliver pioneering solutions for 

the future. Healthcare is at the dawn of a wave of innovation as advances 

in digital means allow for more efficient and tailor-made treatments. 

Data produced and used for the good of society can further 

improve our lives. Mobility 2.0 is on the horizon, and blockchain technology 

is set to revolutionize contracts and trade platforms by establishing 

a new environment of trust. 

This issue of GI features our thoughts and expectations regarding 

these developments. I hope you enjoy the read! 

Christine Schmid, Head of Global Equity & Credit Research


Contents 

Global Investor 1.17 

Collages in this issue 

Map 

The world today is in 

rapid flux. Technology, 

demographics and 

globalization keep people 

and jobs on the move. 

This ferment is giving rise 

to new ideas and ways 

of thinking about how we 

live and work. 

06 

Prosperity is a two-way street 

Finding ways to evolve and improve the 

intergenerational contract is key to ensuring 

a cohesive society, writes Henry Siu. 

13 

When I’m sixty-four 

Economists Yikai Wang and Martin Eichler 

reflect on issues affecting the 

pension systems in China and Switzerland, 

respectively. 

17 

Cyborgs made for walking 

Don’t just focus on building robots, says 

roboticist Yoshiyuki Sankai. Instead, 

think about the problems you want to solve. 

21 

Reshaping patient care by bits 

The healthcare industry has traditionally 

been slow to embrace digital health, writes 

Lorenzo Biasio. This time, it’s different. 

25 

The Internet – 

our friend and caretaker 

Don’t let visions of Orwellian dystopias 

put you off connectivity, argues Uwe 

Neumann. The Internet has a caring side. 

29 

The dark side of digitization 

Cyber risk is the price you pay for an open 

cyber society. It also spells opportunity 

for the IT security industry. Ulrich Kaiser 

explains. 

31 

The age of cryptofinance 

Democracy is finally coming to finance 

in the shape of digital cash, says 

Johann Gevers of Monetas, and it will 

boost the global economy. 

35 

Putting a roof over your head 

Forget about your home being a castle. 

Fabian Waltert takes a look at housing 

trends, and discovers that sharing is the 

name of the game. 

41 

Labor in the new millennium 

In today’s job market, the right employee 

may well not meet your ideal profile, says 

Randstad CEO Jacques van den Broek. 

44 

Young and car-free 

Driving is losing its cachet among 

young people in industrialized countries. 

Julia Dumanskaya examines the 

reasons why. 

46 

Millennials drive sustainability 

Sustainability is a key concern for 

millennials, writes Julie Saussier, and it’s 

leading companies to adapt production 

processes. 

48 

Farmer CTOs 

The arrival of digital agriculture is 

thrusting farmers into the role of chief 

technology officers. Uwe Neumann 

surveys a surprising new landscape. 

Disclaimer > Page 52 

The six illustrations by Vincent Poinas 

creatively evoke some of the issues 

at the heart of the current conflicts between 

generations, including sustainability, 

pensions, healthcare, privacy and robotics. 

For more on the artist, see p. 54.


Photo: Kamil Bialous 

According to economist Henry Siu, the cohesiveness of society depends on its willingness to distribute resources among generations.


Prosperity 

is a 

two-way 

street 

Given the dramatic changes that population aging, globalization and technological 

progress have brought to society, there is renewed discussion on how the 

intergenerational contract should evolve and improve. By doing so, we reaffirm our 

belief in a cohesive society and the value of taking care of those most in need. 

TEXT HENRY SIU 

n intergenerational contract is an agreement made by 

society to transfer resources between individuals who 

are at different stages of life. In almost all instances, this 

takes the form of transfers from those of working age, 

to senior citizens (who have left the workforce) and the young (who 

have not yet entered it). Intergenerational contracts need not be codified 

by law, and in most times and places in the history of humanity, 

they have been informal in nature. Perhaps the most obvious example 

we see today is the multigenerational household. The parents provide 

income, food, and shelter, as well as their time and care to their children 

and their own parents, the grandparents. Grandparents benefit from 

these transfers and, in turn, help in the care of the children, utilizing 

the time and accumulated wisdom they have at their disposal. The 

children in the household receive transfers with no cost to their present 

selves (except, maybe having to clean their rooms and take out 

the garbage). However, the implicit understanding – the contract – is 

that they will provide the same transfers to their parents and children 

when they become working-aged themselves. 

Of course, intergenerational contracts also take more explicit 

forms, codified broadly as social security systems, administered >


by governments in most countries around the world. Perhaps the 

most prominent example is that of state-funded pension programs, 

providing transfers and benefits to the retirement-aged. In industrialized 

economies, these programs have become increasingly burdened 

due to falling birthrates, increased life expectancy, and, in some 

cases, poor budgeting and underfunding. For instance, in the United 

States, the most recent Social Security Administration Trustees Report 

indicates that the program ran a USD 6 trillion deficit in 2016; that’s 

almost USD 20,000 for every man, woman and child living in the USA. 

“Human capital 

is the skill and 

knowledge upon 

which working-aged 

earnings are based.” 

Forecasting into the future and accounting for the present value of 

all future benefits and taxes, the system is currently USD 32 trillion 

in deficit. While presently in less dire circumstances, Switzerland is 

engaged in its Retirement 2020 reform to their state pension system. 

This is in anticipation of the rise in their dependency ratio. Currently 

there are about 30 people aged 65 and over drawing from the pension 

system for every one hundred 20–64-year-olds contributing to 

it; but by 2060, this figure will nearly double to about 55 taking out 

for every 100 paying in. 

Equally – if not more – important in the intergenerational contract 

is the transfers made to the young via publicly funded education and 

healthcare. These matter because education and health investments 

are the means by which societies create human capital. Human capital 

is the skill and knowledge upon which working-aged earnings are 

based, and is perhaps the prime determinant of the size of a society’s 

economic pie and social well-being. In certain places, these systems 

are failing to provide enough investment for the young. 

Redefining the contract 

Against this backdrop, and given the dramatic changes that globalization 

and technological progress have brought about, there is renewed 

discussion on how the intergenerational contract should evolve, 

what should be changed, and how it can be improved to better suit 

the 21st century. But informed discussion requires a fundamental understanding 

of its place in society. What role does it serve to transfer 

resources to and from people at different points in their life? 

Fundamentally, the intergenerational contract is about redistribution 

between generations. It makes sense for society to codify and 

administer this redistribution given that we feel that those who are in 

need deserve to have more, and those that have more can do with a 

bit less. So how should we conceptualize the intergenerational contract, 

so that we can evaluate whether such a contract is desirable, 

fair and working for the greater good of society? 

A useful way to understand the contract is as a form of social insurance 

across generations. Other forms of social insurance, like social 

assistance and welfare programs, do not depend on one’s stage in 

life. The desirability of insurance that crosses generations becomes 

obvious when we realize that many aspects of our working lives are 

like a giant game of roulette, except that the odds are actually stacked 

in our favor. Most of us will be relatively lucky and do just fine: we’ll 

have meaningful careers that pay well and steady work with few, short 

spells of unemployment. This will allow us to enjoy a comfortable life 

in retirement. But a small number of us will be unlucky during our 

working years and suffer the consequences of disability, stints of 

long-term unemployment, the loss of a vocation or the obsolescence 

of skill that we spent decades learning and investing in. These sorts 

of events lead to difficulties in old age. 

Social insurance for the elderly 

This is precisely the sort of negative outcome that social security is 

meant to guard against. In fact, in many countries, this objective is 

stated directly in the name of the program. In both the United States 

and Switzerland, the social security program is called (or translated 

as) Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance; in Germany, it is 

called the State Pension Insurance. Insurance programs are those 

that we pay into in good times and claim benefits from, if and when 

we are hit by negative shocks. 

But in the past 50 or 60 years, social security has evolved from 

insurance programs to largely become publicly funded pension or retirement 

benefit plans that all are entitled to draw from. But none of 

us feel entitled to draw upon our auto insurance on days when we 

don’t get in a car accident, or to draw unemployment benefits when 

we are working. Given this, why should we all receive old-age security 

simply because we are past the age of eligibility, especially those 

of us who have had the fortune of successful careers working in wellpaying 

jobs? Retirement saving is equally well performed by ourselves 

on an individual basis; it is unclear why it should be done by transferring 

income from one generation to the next. Therefore, an important 

question to be addressed is whether government-sponsored, old-age 

social security should be reserved for, and thereby made more generous 

to, those truly in need. 

This is made especially pressing given the dramatic labor market 

changes the global economy has experienced in the past 30 years. 

With advances in robotics, information and communication technology, 

and computing power, automation has made obsolete the accumulated 

skills of a wide swath of the population nearing retirement 

age. Advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence threaten 

to erode the value of knowledge and skills in which an ever-increasing 

number of highly educated workers have invested. Prioritization 

of old-age insurance should be given to those who have experienced 

these outcomes during their working careers. And because of the inherent 

uncertainty of longevity, it should also benefit those that have 

been unlucky enough to live longer than expected when they made 

their retirement savings decisions. 

Social insurance for the young 

To the extent that the outcome of one’s working career and end of 

life is a gamble, it is swamped by a much bigger risk factor determining 

lifetime well-being: the lottery of birth. This is a concept that has 

been discussed at least since the time of the 18th century by philosopher 

Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and in our times by the philosopher


John Rawls and philanthropist Warren Buffett. The idea of course is 

simple: prior to birth, we have no choice as to whether we are born 

with ability or disability, into a rich family or poor one, or into a society 

that values basic human rights or not. A lottery determines whether 

we enter life into a circumstance of ability and opportunity, so the 

foundational building blocks of success and fortune are determined 

by pure luck. 

Viewed this way, it is decidedly compelling that the intergenerational 

contract should transfer resources to the young in order to provide 

insurance against poor early-life outcomes. The most important 

way we can do this is through fair and effective publicly funded education. 

Formal education systems can never fully undo all of the disadvantages 

that may befall someone at birth. However, public education 

should do its best to redistribute to those in need and help to 

even the playing field at life’s outset. At the very least, it should not 

magnify the unequal outcomes of the birth lottery. But in some places 

around the world this is what happens. Perhaps an instructive 

example is the United States where public education funding is determined 

disproportionately by the local tax base: spending is higher 

in rich suburbs and much lower in rural and inner-city settings. This 

magnifies inequality. In a 2015 report issued by the Education Law 

Center, only four states out of 50 (Minnesota, Massachusetts, New 

Jersey and Delaware) received a rating “fair.” 

“Fundamentally, 

the intergenerational 

contract is about 

redistribution 

between generations.” 

Of course, the USA is not alone. Every three years, the OECD conducts 

the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), 

a survey intended to evaluate education systems worldwide. The most 

recent information (as of this writing) is available for 2012. According 

to the PISA, in countries as diverse as Turkey, the United Kingdom 

and Austria, student-teacher ratios are tilted in favor of socioeconomically 

advantaged schools compared with disadvantaged schools. 

This is in contrast to places like Belgium and the Netherlands where 

the student-teacher ratio is used to mitigate socioeconomic disadvantage. 

In this respect, lessons can be drawn from Germany’s recent experience. 

Between 2003 and 2012, Germany was successful in reducing 

inequality among students’ PISA test scores and simultaneously 

increasing average performance. While causality is hard to 

establish, many believe the gains were in large part achieved by providing 

school-based support and targeting the most disadvantaged 

students, oftentimes immigrants and the children of immigrants. This 

targeting of benefits is precisely in the spirit of redistributing to those 

most in need, those disadvantaged by being born in places and > 

Henry Siu 

is an associate professor in the 

Vancouver School of Economics at 

the University of British Columbia. 

His research focuses on issues 

related to labor and macroeconomics 

such as automation and the decline 

of middle-class jobs, recessions 

and jobless recoveries, and youth 

unemployment.


Photo: Vorname Name/Agentur


“The climate deficit the global 

community is running on a perpetual 

basis is simply stripping resources 

from our children and grandchildren 

for our own benefit.” 

circumstances lacking for opportunity. This principal of inclusiveness 

is also fundamental to providing fair educational opportunities at the 

university level. Initiatives such as the Erasmus programe of the European 

Union and the establishment of uniform tuition fees for EU 

students fosters equality of access to human capital investment and 

generates mobility across borders within a cohesive society. If not for 

social insurance motives, these objectives are valuable and worthy in 

their own right. 

Social insurance for current and future generations 

Finally, an integral part of an evolved intergenerational contract must 

include action on climate change. Though much of this discussion 

has centered on redistribution for insurance purposes from the lucky 

to unlucky, a more basic priority should be fairness across generations. 

Accumulating unfunded social security liabilities, coupled with 

political inaction is, quite simply, a transfer from future generations 

to current and past ones, without regard for need or disadvantage. In 

the same way, the climate deficit the global community is running on 

a perpetual basis is simply stripping resources from our children and 

grandchildren for our own benefit. This violates the basic proposition 

that the intergenerational contract should not be benefiting the welloff. 

As policy makers we have the tools to curb greenhouse gas emissions. 

At a minimum, greenhouse gas-emitting activities should be 

taxed. This provides incentives for reducing such harmful activities 

and developing more socially responsible energy sources. An even 

more equitable solution would be to redistribute these tax receipts to 

future generations, transferring resources in the right direction. 

Moving forward, our intergenerational contract should evolve to ensure 

transfers are made to those who need it most, including our 

seniors, our children and future generations who have and will face 

misfortune. Prioritizing those in need helps ensure the long-term sustainability 

of our social insurance programs and our societies.


> 



Photo: Sigrid Bjorbekkmo 

Pensions 

When I’m 

sixty-four 

Old-age pensions are an entitlement in many countries around the 

world. But aging populations make it more difficult to finance 

these systems. We look at solutions to the pension question in 

two very different countries: China and Switzerland. 

INTERVIEW BY GISELLE WEISS, freelance writer 

Yikai Wang 

is an assistant professor in the 

Department of Economics at the University 

of Oslo, specializing in quantitative 

macroeconomics and the Chinese 

economy. He received his PhD in Economics 

from the University of Zurich in 

2014. From 2011 to 2012, he was a 

visiting scholar at the Massachusetts 

Institute of Technology. 

Even in industrialized countries, 

guaranteeing pensions is no 

easy matter. China is a devel oping 

country with a huge and rapidly 

aging population. How is it addressing 

the issue of retirement income? 

Giselle Weiss: Do the Chinese think 

in terms of baby boomers and millennials 

and so forth? 

Yikai Wang Actually, my generation is 

known as the “after 1980s.” Because we 

were born after the market reform, we never 

lived in a planned economy. And we were 

the first generation to really be restricted by 

the one-child policy, which became quite 

tight after the 1980s. We had cousins to 

play with, not siblings. So we think a little 

differently from previous generations. 

In 2012, you and your colleagues wrote 

a paper on Chinese pension problems that 

got picked up by the “Economist” magazine. 

What was that about? 

Yikai Wang We were interested in 

two questions. First, the replacement rate 

for Chinese retirees – the percentage 

of pre-retirement income that is paid out as 

pension – is quite high. How sustainable 

is the current pension system? And, second, 

because Chinese incomes have been 

growing very fast, older generations are 

poorer than future generations will be. What 

amount of intergenerational transfer – i.e., 

using the contributions of younger workers to 

fund current retirees – will improve the 

welfare of the older generations without 

hurting future younger generations? 

Very-fast-growing income sounds like a 

good thing. 

Yikai Wang For the older generations, 

though, it isn’t necessarily. Take someone 

who entered the Chinese labor market in 

1970 and someone who entered it in 2000. 

During those 30 years, wages grew at 6% 

per year on average. Which means that a 

person who entered the market in 2000 can 

expect to earn six times as much as the 

person who entered the market in 1970. 

Moreover, traditionally, most older 

generations just put their money in a bank, 

and they had little to begin with. 

What percentage of the population 

in China can expect a pension? 

Yikai Wang Broadly speaking, only 

urban workers are covered by the pension 

system, and of those workers, only 60% 

participate. The system isn’t compulsory. 

There’s basically no pensions in the rural 

areas, which since the end of the planned 

economy in 1978 have officially been 

responsible for taking care of themselves. 

What do old people in the rural areas do? 

Yikai Wang They rely primarily on 

support from their children, who work in 

urban areas. We actually wrote a follow-up 

to our paper in which we hypothesized how 

a universal pension system that includes 

the rural areas might not be a major burden 

because worker income there is so low. 

What makes the pension 

situation in China so acute? 

Yikai Wang The Chinese population is 

aging very, very fast. For example, right 

now, the old-age dependency ratio – the ratio 

of old to young – is a bit more than 0.1. 

It will take China only 40 years, say until 

around 2055, for the old-age dependency 

ratio to increase to 0.5. That means one 

senior for every two working-age persons in 

China. And that’s if you compare the over- 

65 population with the under-65 population. 

A second factor is that there is a huge 

movement of young people to the cities. 

That slows down the aging problem in the 

urban areas, but it aggravates it in the countryside. 

By one measure that we used, 

there will be 1.6 seniors for each workingage 

person in rural China by 2050. 

If the government is worried about 

the sustainability of the pension system, 

wouldn’t it make more sense for the 

system to be mandatory? 

>


“Broadly speaking, only urban workers 

are covered by the pension system, 

and of those workers, only 60% participate.” 

Yikai Wang 

Yikai Wang To do that, you have to first 

be able to check and enforce contributions, 

which isn’t easy in developing countries with 

large populations. Moreover, China has 

many small firms and self-employed workers, 

which makes collecting pension contributions 

even harder. Second, the timing has 

to be right. For example, the US introduced 

social security after the Great Depression. 

Many European countries set up their 

systems after World War II. In the current 

climate in China, a law mandating pensions 

would be unlikely to pass. 

So how do you increase voluntary 

participation in the system? 

Yikai Wang One reason many private 

workers do not participate is because their 

employers don’t want to (workers contribute 

8% to the system, and employers 20%). 

Employers would rather pay workers extra 

than contribute to the pension system. 

Here, economic incentives might help, as 

would making the system a little more 

compulsory. Right now, the discussion is 

tending toward changing the form of the 

pension system itself. 

You and your colleagues have proposed 

a different recommendation for funding the 

pension system than the government has. 

Yikai Wang Yes. Because the government 

is focusing on the financial sustainability 

of the system, it wants to move to a 

system in which there is little intergenerational 

transfer and everyone relies on their 

own contributions. But we think that keeping 

an element of intergenerational transfer – 

similar to the current pay-as-you-go system 

in most continental European and Scandinavian 

countries – is important. This would 

ensure that the current old persons will 

receive a decent pension. 

And the sustainability issue? 

Yikai Wang It can be solved using other 

measures. For example, extending the 

retirement age, which at present is still 60 

for men and 50 for women. Or reducing the 

replacement rate for future generations, 

since they will be richer overall. 

Among Western industrialized countries, 

Switzerland stands out as a model of prosperity 

and innovation. But the challenges to the pension 

system that it faces are typical. 

Giselle Weiss: In 2012, BAK Basel projected in a report to the Swiss 

Federal Department of Home Affairs that the old-age dependency 

ratio in Switzerland would increase from 29% (at the time of 

the report) to 56% by 2060. What is the significance of that figure? 

Martin Eichler The old-age dependency ratio tells you how 

many working-age people are available to finance one retired 

person. This ratio will increase substantially over the next 20 or 30 

years: more retirees and fewer people to finance them than 

today. And that’s only the financial side. There are also political and 

societal consequences of the growing weight of pensioners. 

How does Switzerland’s old-age dependency ratio compare with 

those of other countries? 

Martin Eichler Switzerland is fairly typical of modern Western 

industrial economies. The number of retirees is projected to increase 

substantially in all these economies. Within Western Europe, 

Switzerland is actually slightly better positioned than most countries 

today – particularly due to immigration. And we expect that to 

continue in the future. 

How would you characterize the state of the Swiss pension system? 

Martin Eichler The Swiss system is based on three pillars 

for stability. Each pillar has advantages and disadvantages. The payas-you-go 

part of the system – the AHV – is vulnerable to unbalanced 

population developments. The second pillar (BVG), which is a 

capital-based system, is less vulnerable to these changes. However, 

it is susceptible to financial market fluctuations, which we are seeing 

at present. As the time horizon of a pension system is 60 years 

or more, you can see how having a mix of pillars is well suited to a 

range of eventualities.


What are the main challenges to 

the system? 

Martin Eichler Apart from the stress on 

the financial markets in the short term, the 

main challenge at the moment is a convergence 

of three different factors. The first 

is baby boomers, who are now approaching 

retirement. The burden they represent is 

temporary (although it will last for about 30 

years), but it’s substantial. And it’s particularly 

hard for the AHV system, the payas-you-go 

part. Initially, the baby boomers 

put more money into the system than they 

took out, which actually was a double-edged 

sword in the sense that it masked other 

challenges to the system. 

Such as …? 

Martin Eichler Despite Switzerland’s 

high level of immigration, we are facing a 

declining population. At the moment, the 

population is still rising, but at a fast dropping 

rate. Our birthrate is substantially 

below the 2.1 children needed to maintain 

the size of the population. Already in the 

medium term, all the projections point to a 

declining population. It may take 10 or 

15 more years, depending on migration, until 

we reach the tipping point. But it will certainly 

happen. To illustrate the problem: 

according to a back-of-the-envelope calculation, 

it would take about 100,000 additional 

net migrants every year of 20-year-old people 

to keep the old-age dependency ratio stable. 

That would be politically impossible, 

wouldn’t it? 

Martin Eichler Yes. It means more than 

doubling net migration every year. It’s also 

very difficult to attract that many people. 

Remember that other countries around us 

are also facing declining populations as well. 

In any event, it’s not a solution. Migration 

can help, but it’s not enough to solve the 

problem. 

And the third challenge? 

Martin Eichler Increasing life expectancy. 

Not only are we getting older, we’re 

also healthier and stronger. That’s great, 

but it puts pressure on the pension system 

in that pensions are paid out for longer. 

What role does the low-interest-rate 

environment play in the challenges to the 

pension system? 

Martin Eichler It’s difficult, of course, 

especially for the capital-based pillar. 

But we see that as a temporary effect. It 

might well last for another few years; 

however, we do expect the situation to 

normalize at some point. 

Martin Eichler 

is chief economist and member of the 

board of directors of BAK Basel 

Economics AG. He heads up BAK Basel’s 

analysis and forecasting, and consults 

both within Switzerland and abroad. 

He studied Economics at the University 

of Constance, Germany, and at the 

University of Western Ontario, Canada. 

“Particularly for millennials 

and other younger 

generations, the question 

is how long we wait to 

react. The longer we wait, 

the harder it will hit!” 

Martin Eichler 

So what is to be done? 

Martin Eichler Particularly for millennials 

and other younger generations, 

the question is how long we wait to react. 

The longer we wait, the harder it will hit! We 

do need migration to cover some of the 

stress in the system, and higher contributions 

to social security are inevitable. Furthermore, 

I believe that at some point we will have to 

increase the pension age in Switzerland. With 

a mix of actions the system can be saved 

if we – including the citizens, who will have to 

vote on it – want to save it. 

What impact do you expect the 

changing nature of work to have on 

the pension system? 

Martin Eichler With less stable kinds of 

employment, longer periods of education 

or self-employment for example, we probably 

need more flexibility, especially with 

the employer-backed second pillar. We need 

to ensure that different parts of a working 

life add up to a substantial pension without 

too many holes. But that doesn’t require 

a completely new system. I’m convinced that 

it can be achieved. 

Additional 

details 

on our map

GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —16


Robotics 

Cyborgs made 

for walking 

Dr. Yoshiyuki Sankai, the founder and CEO of Japanese robotics company CYBERDYNE, 

talked to Angus Muirhead, Senior Fund Manager for the Credit Suisse (Lux) Global Robotics Equity 

Fund, about robotics, their medical robot suit “HAL” and his vision of an automated future. 

INTERVIEW BY ANGUS MUIRHEAD, Credit Suisse 

Angus Muirhead: Where did your journey 

into robotics start? What first inspired you? 

Yoshiyuki Sankai In third grade, my fate 

was decided when my mother bought me 

the science fiction novel “I, ROBOT” by 

Isaac Asimov. From that point on I decided 

in my heart that I wanted to invent things 

that would bring people great happiness. 

In the novel, Asimov talks about three laws 

of robotics, the first of which made a great 

impression on me: “Robots must not hurt 

human beings.” So all through my childhood, 

I dreamed of science and robotics and began 

creating my own experiments. In my 

school graduation paper titled “ 夢 ” (“yume” = 

dream), I wrote: “When I grow up I want to 

be a scientist and I want to invent and build 

a robot in my lab.” 

Tell me a little bit about your medical-use 

robot “HAL” 

Yoshiyuki Sankai Well, HAL is the 

world’s first therapeutic robotic device to 

be covered by public health insurance. It is 

designed as a robot suit to be worn by 

people who are unable to move freely due 

to disease or aging, to help them to 

walk and assist in therapeutic treatment. Our 

technology enables the system to pick up 

the neural signals sent from the brain down 

to the lower limbs and to respond mechani- 

cally as the leg muscles should do. There 

are other use cases for HAL, but this 

medical use case is our most commercially 

advanced application. 

And what makes HAL different to similar 

systems being developed? 

Yoshiyuki Sankai HAL is unique in that 

it is the only robot in the world to be approved 

for therapeutic medical use. In other 

systems, when the exoskeleton moves, 

it simply pulls or carries the patient’s limbs 

with it, without direct interaction with the 

patients’ nervous system. In HAL’s case, 

the movement is initiated directly by signals 

from the human brain and the resulting motion 

is fed back to the brain via the nervous 

system. By reconnecting this continuous 

feedback loop, there is evidence to suggest 

that patients are starting to experience 

therapeutic benefit. 

So the HAL system is now approved in 

Japan and the EU? 

Yoshiyuki Sankai Yes. Already ten 

years ago, back in 2006, we started clinical 

research to prepare for the commercialization 

of the prototype HAL as a medical therapeutic 

device for the Japanese market. 

Then we leased HAL systems to a number 

of hospitals and clinics and, using the data 

gathered from these real-world patient tests, 

we received approval for use as a medical 

device in November 2015. Then, in September 

2016, the first commercial healthcare 

medical treatments using HAL finally started. 

In the process of getting HAL approved 

as a medical device in Japan and the EU, 

we formulated a number of rules for the 

definition and use of medical robots. 

We have now established a number of ISOapproved 

standards. 

Since you first introduced HAL almost a 

decade ago, the level of sophistication 

has increased tremendously. What 

technology changes in the last few years 

have enabled these rapid advances? 

Yoshiyuki Sankai In the first decade, 

the HAL system was a development project 

at the University of Tsukuba. Then, since 

2004 when we founded CYBERDYNE, 

we have taken HAL through an extremely 

advanced and innovative development 

process to arrive at the robotic therapeutic 

treatment device we have today. 

What are the key technology challenges you 

face today in developing robotics? 

Yoshiyuki Sankai There is a long way to 

go before the technology that might allow 

people and robots and digital data to function 

seamlessly together becomes accessible 

and applicable to more areas of our >


“The future will be shaped 

by what kind of technologies 

are developed.” 

Yoshiyuki Sankai 

Yoshiyuki Sankai 

is CEO and founder of robotics company 

CYBERDYNE Inc. He is Professor at the 

Institute of Systems and Engineering at 

Tsukuba University and visiting Professor 

of Baylor College of Medicine, Texas. 

He has won a number of awards including 

the World Technology Award and 

Entrepreneur of the Year Award Japan. 

daily lives. I think focusing on developing 

robots is the wrong starting point. The 

focal point should be to think about what 

problems we face and what we need to 

do to solve specific problems or provide a 

specific benefit. With this goal, I believe 

CYBERDYNE has already successfully 

pushed into an area of technology that no 

one else has really touched, and we feel 

compelled to follow the course further, even 

if it takes us into areas where we currently 

have little expertise. 

What do you imagine will be achievable in 

robotics in the future? 

Yoshiyuki Sankai CYBERDYNE will 

continue to focus on the use of robotics 

beyond traditional industrial robots, in areas 

such as lifestyle, healthcare, entertainment, 

education and communications. As well 

as the therapeutic uses, there are also other 

applications of the HAL technology, such 

as HAL used by able-bodied people in nursing 

homes and on construction sites or in 

logistics to enable them to lift heavy objects 

or to carry patients from their bed to the 

bathroom, for example. Today, you will also 

find some of our other robots equipped 

with artificial intelligence at Tokyo’s Haneda 

Airport being used for cleaning and transport 

and logistics. 

And how do you think society will benefit 

from the advances in robotics? 

Yoshiyuki Sankai Robots equipped with 

artificial intelligence could become hugely 

valuable to our society, as we are living 

longer, but at the same time are seeing a 

fairly low birthrate. For example, we might 

well have robots do our shopping. Furthermore, 

it’s also conceivable that there might 

be various other robots for the elderly or 

infirm to improve mobility, to help people 

to wash and bathe and to stay in touch with 

relatives and caregivers. In fact, a new 

concept which I am developing is to build a 

“Cybernic City” incorporating all these 

robotic technologies. With this goal in mind, 

we have acquired a large piece of land 

in Tsukuba City near CYBERDYNE’s headquarters 

and are cooperating and developing 

partnerships with a large number of 

companies and organizations. 

Several technologists have voiced concerns 

about the risks of developing powerful 

artificial intelligence. Do you think these 

concerns are warranted? 

Yoshiyuki Sankai In the future, it will be 

extremely important that we focus on the 

human perspective and the ethics of society. 

The future will be shaped by what kind of 

technologies are developed and how they 

are used, and that is why it’s important 

to design technology that offers benefits to 

society and with the vision of a better 

future in mind. 

Additional 

details 

on our map


What’s HAL? 

HAL (Hybrid Assistive Limb) is the world’s first cyborg-type robot which enables the fusion of “man” with “machine” and “information.” 

When a person wears HAL, the system assists, supports and even augments their physical movement, and over time may accelerate and repair a patient’s 

damaged cerebral nerves. Source: CYBERDYNE 

01 THINK 

02 SEND 

03 READ 

04 MOVE 

05 LEARN 

First of all, think 

“I want to walk!” 

When a person 

moves the body, he 

or she first thinks 

about the motions in 

his or her brain. 

By thinking “I want 

to walk,” the brain 

transmits necessary 

signals to muscles 

necessary for 

the motions through 

nerves. 

Receiving the signals, 

muscles move. 

In the healthy body, 

each muscle is able 

to receive signals 

destined from the 

brain to it and move 

as strongly and fast 

as intended. 

HAL reads signals. 

Signals sent to 

muscles by the brain 

leak on the skin 

surface as very faint 

signals, so called 

“bio-electric signals 

(BES).” HAL is able 

to read BESs by only 

attaching the originally 

developed 

detectors on the surface 

on the wearer’s 

skin. By consolidating 

various information, 

HAL recognizes 

what sorts of 

motions the wearer 

intends. 

HAL moves as the 

wearer intends. 

HAL, in accordance 

with the recognized 

motions, controls 

its power units. This 

function enables 

HAL to assist the 

wearer’s motions as 

he or she intends 

and exerts bigger 

power than he or she 

ordinarily exerts. 

The brain learns 

motion. The mechanism 

to move the 

human body does not 

end up with only moving 

muscles. The brain 

confirms how the body 

moved on what sort 

of signals. When HAL 

has appropriately assisted 

the motions 

of walking, the feeling 

“I could walk!” is fed 

back to the brain. 

By this means, the 

brain becomes able to 

learn the way to emit 

necessary signals 

for walking gradually. 

This leads to the 

important first step 

in walking of the 

physically challenged 

person without being 

assisted by HAL. The 

only robot that can 

provide appropriate 

solutions for motions 

to the brain is HAL. 

Illustration: CYBERDYNE, The Noun Project


Digital health 

Reshaping 

patient 

care by bits 

In most of the developed world and increasingly 

in emerging markets, healthcare costs are on 

a steep upward trajectory. Not only do societies 

spend more as they get wealthier, they also 

spend more as healthcare moves up on people’s 

priority list. In the quest to optimize patient 

outcomes and healthcare expenditure, digital 

health opportunities play a vital role. 

TEXT LORENZO BIASIO, Credit Suisse 

Digitization has become a staple of our lives and daily routines 

in areas such as news consumption or shopping and 

it is also making inroads into health management. With 

new tools at their disposal, people are increasingly assuming 

responsibility for their health and well-being as well as disease 

management. At the same time, insurance companies are eager to 

get patient data to price risk. Furthermore, care providers are innovating 

and using digital tools to drive better patient outcomes. 

Traditionally, the healthcare industry is slow to embrace change, 

but to us, this time feels different. With the emergence of remote patient 

monitoring solutions, telehealth offerings and the fact that health 

education and health management portals are gaining traction, digital 

health is visibly reshaping the current standard of care. 

Remote monitoring stands out 

When looking at the wide range of what digital health encompasses, 

remote monitoring strikes us as the area that provides the highest 

value added given its utility in managing chronic diseases. Considering 

that an estimated one-third of total US healthcare spending goes 

toward the management of chronic diseases, the savings potential 

that remote monitoring offers becomes evident. 

A case in point is the solution Vivify Health provides for patients 

with heart failure, a condition that costs the US healthcare system 

almost USD 40 billion annually. Almost half of this expenditure is attributable 

to inpatient stays, which are costly compared to daily per-patient 

costs of just several dollars for stable patients. Vivify’s solution 

comprises a tablet (incl. software), two diagnostic devices, plus a 

scale. These tools allow doctors and nurses to assess the patient 

continuously and detect alarming signs and worsening trends between 

regularly scheduled visits. Furthermore, they can even reduce the 

number of necessary inpatient visits – in Vivify’s pilot, from over >


three monthly visits to fewer than 0.4. Moreover, the tools reduced 

very costly emergency room visits by over 70%. 

Health advice traveling the distance 

Another digital health solution is to provide medical advice at a distance. 

In Switzerland, health insurers have long been employing insurance 

models that require patients to seek telephone assistance 

from an insurance-designated general practitioner. Under such a 

model, through the triage of patients by a healthcare professional, 

patients can be channeled to the appropriate care setting, eliminating 

redundancies in the system and driving savings for the insurer. 

Such ideas can be taken much further still. Doctor On Demand, 

a USA-based service, provides a showcase of what could become 

much more widespread in future. Using any device, the service allows 

patients to get counseling from a specialist for most medical and also 

some mental conditions. If we assume that such a service is applicable 

to about a third of all physician visits at a stated price point of 

USD 49 and, as has been reported, that the average person visits 

their physician about three times a year at a current all-in price per visit 

of USD 150, the theoretical savings amount to over USD 30 billion. 

As such services are rolled out in the emerging markets, healthcare 

provisioning can change profoundly. Immobile patients as well 

as remote areas should benefit dramatically from such offerings as 

virtual physician consultations become possible. 

Powerful innovation enables self-management 

Advances in information technology are also changing medical sensors, 

enabling them to shrink in size and become more versatile. One 

technology unthinkable without recent advancements in sensor technology 

stands out in terms of impact on patients’ quality of life: CGM, 

short for continuous glucose monitoring. With the use of extendedwear 

(multiple days) CGM sensors connected to a dedicated receiver 

or smartphone, diabetic patients can monitor their blood glucose levels 

continuously. The significant CGM benefit is that it allows patients 

to identify potentially dangerous episodes that they may miss with 

traditional one-off measurements using capillary-drawn blood. By involving 

a smart device in CGM, patient-specific alert levels as well as 

rules for automated notifications based on glucose readings can be 

preset (to parents, for instance). Given the magnitude of this innovation, 

it is no surprise to read that the technology is reported to have 

saved lives. If, as one major medical expenditure survey shows, slightly 

less than 20% of diabetes expenditure attributable to emergency 

room visits and inpatient stays – which could be, at least partially, 

avoided using CGM – the savings potential amounts to more than 

USD 10 billion. 

Looking ahead, we believe that it is only a matter of time until an 

artificial pancreas, that is, a CGM system connected to an insulin 

pump, will come to market. There are still some technological challenges 

and regulatory hurdles to be overcome, but we are steadily 

nearing the emergence of such an artificial pancreas, termed by many 

as the “holy grail of insulin therapy.” 

Venture funding of digital health companies 

In 2015, venture funding of digital health companies amounted to 

USD 4.5 billion, or 7% of total venture funding. Although 

deal volume was relatively flat, late-stage deals were up 23%. 

Source: Rock Health, Digital Health Funding: 2015 — Year in Review 

USD bn 

5 

4 

3 

2 

1 

0 

WebMD use on the rise 

WebMD user statistics show a steady increase since the inception of 

the service. Today, more than 200 million unique users visit the Web site 

every month, to access health, nutritional and wellness information. 

Source: WebMD 

Users in m 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

Average monthly 

unique users 

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

Health literacy is not universally positive 

With the advent of health information Web sites like WebMD and services 

such as 23andMe (a personal genomics company), people are 

increasingly given digital tools that promote health literacy. While we 

do believe that health literacy should be an aspiration of every modern 

society and, ideally, increasing health literacy should lead to >


To explore 

health issues in 

greater depth, 

see the foldout map. 

“Traditionally, the healthcare industry 

is slow to embrace change, but to us, this 

time feels different. With the emergence 

of new tools, digital health is visibly 

reshaping the current standard of care.” 

Lorenzo Biasio 

more informed conversations with physicians, our assessment of the 

current developments is mixed. Our conversations with physicians 

point to some undesirable developments: with the increasingly widespread 

availability of health information, it is not uncommon for patients 

to arrive at the doctor’s with a set idea about their diagnosis 

and even wishes for specific kinds of treatment. Such behavior may 

require lengthy explanations from doctors, but there are bigger risks 

such as possibly unnecessary diagnostic testing and potentially dangerous 

self-medication. 

This is not to say that the health information on offer is flawed. 

Offerings aimed at improving health literacy are useful – we simply 

believe they should be focused on the prophylactic setting, for instance 

giving wellness and nutritional tips. When it comes to more 

severe diseases, we believe that health information should be accessed 

with the guidance of a healthcare professional – a view supported 

by the fact that early 23andMe products were banned from 

the market by the US Food and Drug Administration, which found the 

information to be prone to misinterpretation. 

ingly stretched healthcare systems. When used properly, we are optimistic 

that digital health solutions can produce winners along the 

healthcare value chain – patients, physicians, caretakers, hospitals 

and insurance companies. However, in order to succeed, it will be 

paramount for digital solutions to be properly and carefully balanced 

with tangible and empathic expert advice from an actual physician. 

Digital health – a new era 

We do believe that we are at the dawn of a new era with regard to 

digital healthcare services. Digital health solutions undeniably create 

large efficiency gains and convenience advantages across the entire 

healthcare value chain. Thus, digital health solutions are key enablers 

to drive substantial system-wide savings that benefit today’s increas- 


Equity Analyst Healthcare 

+41 44 333 14 79 

lorenzo.biasio@credit-suisse.com


Connectivity 

The Internet – our 

friend and caretaker 

The Internet continues to expand. Data collection, management and analysis are growing 

exponentially. Many people fear this development, viewing it as an Orwellian risk. However, 

the Internet and the Internet of Things also offer ways to find solutions for a better world. 

BUILDINGS 

IT & 

NETWORKS 

SECURITY / 

PUBLIC SAFETY 

RETAIL 

ENERGY 

INDUSTRIAL 

CONSUMER 

& HOME 

HEALTHCARE 

& LIFE SCIENCE 

TRANS- 

PORTATION 

PORTATION 

Illustration: The Noun Project 

Digitization is spreading into our daily life 

The expanding Internet offers the capability to solve not only complex problems, it also can help us to make our world more healthy, efficient, 

mindful and secure. Source: Beecham Research Ltd.


The title “Ask Mom” is often used for 

how-to books that provide tips on 

how to treat a cut, how to prepare or 

store food or how to remove a stain 

from a shirt. In the past, such knowledge was 

passed on from generation to generation by 

word of mouth. Later on it was written down 

and printed in book form. In modern times, 

the same information can be accessed and 

read on mobile devices or personal computers. 

The technological progress achieved 

through digitization makes it easier than ever 

to save data and ensures that information is 

no longer lost. The expansion of the Internet 

to mobile devices and to things has led to a 

massive increase in data and digital communication. 

300 billion tweets have been sent 

since Twitter came into being, and every second, 

5,000 new ones are added. Whether 

one disseminates digital communications or 

censors or processes data, it is vital to identify 

the best way to read and manage such 

data. 

Creating a global conscience 

“‘Caring’ smart objects 

put people and their 

needs at the center of 

their services.” 

Uwe Neumann 

This technology has given rise to a ubiquitous, 

all-encompassing communications system 

that is self-sufficient and can also provide extensive 

benefits to others. Not only does it 

grant access to a wide range of knowledge, 

it also establishes a platform for creating a 

global conscience, as information, opinions 

and assessments from around the world become 

more transparent and accessible. The 

insights gained from social networks could 

increasingly contribute to a common awareness 

and acceptance of how to make the 

world a better place. Politicians and other decision-makers 

are well advised to employ the 

growing global bank of knowledge for the 

good of society and not let it morph into a 

kind of big-brother-is-watching-you society. 

As online activity is continuously monitored 

and measured, there is the inherent danger 

of users being monitored and punished for 

voicing their views and opinions, etc. At the 

same time, however, transparent near-time 

user feedback in response to, say, political 

events, driven by a regional, or even global, 

conscience, can also paint a more accurate 

picture of the mood in society and can help 

lead to change. A case in point – companies 

such as BrandsEye or MogIA, which used 

data from social media such as Google, Facebook 

and Twitter, successfully predicted the 

outcome of the US election, while traditional 

polls got the result wrong. 

Internet-connected devices look after you 

Apart from the Internet’s ability to “care” for 

users, there has also been strong growth in 

new markets that provide “caring” objects, i.e., 

smart objects that put people and their needs 

at the center of their services. If asked what 

a caretaker should provide, most people 

would probably say they should care for our 

physical health and mental well-being as well 

as our safety and security. Moreover, a caretaker 

should manage communication within 

the family. 

New devices such as Google Home and 

Google Assistant could one day become our 

new friend and caretaker who looks after the 

family. These devices are connected to the 

Internet, have a camera, an invisible microphone 

with intelligent speech recognition and 

loudspeakers. They can tell you where your 

keys are (provided they are also connected); 

they can answer children’s questions by accessing 

the Internet; and they can start playing 

your favorite morning music upon request. 

Other companies such as Amazon with its 

Echo device and Apple with its HomeKit 

products aim to provide similar services. They 

are vying to become a central hub within our 

homes to ensure our health, security and 

family communication. 

Internet of healthy things 

The supply of Internet-connected health devices 

is also on the rise. In 2015, Partners 

HealthCare announced a partnership with


Samsung Electronics to develop the next 

generation of personalized digital and mobile 

solutions for health and wellness. In 2016, 

Nestlé Institute and Samsung announced 

plans to pool their resources to build a connected 

health and lifestyle platform that will 

interact with everything from smart TVs to 

wearables to helping people make healthier 

choices. Several fashion firms launched socalled 

tech shirts in 2015, i.e., shirts that measure 

heart rates, breathing or live biometrics. 

Fitbit’s success with its activity and heart rate 

trackers is another example of a gadget that 

monitors our health. Research and Markets 

expects the wearable device market to 

grow from USD 23 billion in 2015 to USD 

173 billion by 2020. However, selling devices 

and apps is only a small piece of the connected 

health market. Collecting, analyzing 

and managing the data is where the true 

potential lies, helping to find better solutions 

for our healthcare market. 

Internet of mindful and security things 

“Digitization has 

helped create a 

global conscience.” 

Uwe Neumann 

With GPS-enabled devices such as the 

TrackR Bravo, finding lost keys or bags has 

never been easier. If the item is attached to 

your key or bag, you can easily locate it using 

an app on your phone. With a smart sleep 

mask, you can track your sleep using medical-grade 

sensors. The tracking enables you 

to improve your sleep habits. With a Vigo 

headset, you can track your alertness (for instance 

when driving long distances by car) 

and it can send an alarm if your alertness declines. 

When Alphabet (Google) acquired 

smart thermostat and smoke alarm maker 

Nest in 2014, it approached the ability to capitalize 

on the rising demand for home security 

the smart way. Nest also provides a Dropcam 

that helps to monitor movements in your 

home using an Internet connection and live 

streams via an app on your smartphone when 

you are away. Robots are becoming more intelligent, 

too, and can help to keep people in 

need of care at home longer by connecting 

them to a smart-home Internet caring hub. 

The smart-home market is expected to reach 

a value of USD 122 billion by 2022 and is 

estimated to grow by a compound annual 

growth rate of 14% between 2016 and 2022, 

according to MarketsandMarkets. “Smart 

home” encompasses everything from lighting 

and entertainment control to security and access 

control to smart kitchens as well as 

smart meters and smoke detectors. 

For some readers, some of these developments 

may invoke visions of George Orwell’s 

“1984.” People who oppose the idea of 

an interconnected world are typically concerned 

about protecting their privacy as well 

as the risk of misinformation and manipulation. 

However, society can also find ways to 

harness the technological progress for educational 

purposes and to bring people closer 

together. For example, young children are increasingly 

using programs such as YouTube 

to learn about cooking (and pretty much everything 

else). Or consider apps like SideChef, 

which provides step-by-step instructions on 

how to cook a meal. Such tools can help keep 

the family together at dinner time, as children 

will want to share what they bake or cook with 

the rest of the family. And parents can use 

devices such as a Wi-Fi-blocking pepper 

grinder to make sure their children cannot 

access their smartphones or iPads during 

dinner. Viewed from that perspective, there 

is indeed a lot to be gained from today’s connectivity. 

Uwe Neumann 

Research Analyst 

+41 44 334 56 45 

uwe.neumann@credit-suisse.com 

Additional details 

on our map




Internet solutions 

The dark side 

of digitization 

In the old PC-dominated IT world, you had a protected private environment that could 

be ringfenced with perimeter and infrastructure security, separating it from the outside 

world. In today’s globalized world, digitization and the younger generation’s IT consumption 

patterns represent a challenge to ensuring a safe cyber environment. 

TEXT ULRICH KAISER, Credit Suisse 

Back in the 1980s when the Internet 

was in its infancy, cybersecurity 

was not an issue. Since then, however, 

the number and sophistication 

of cyberattacks have increased. The topics 

making the headlines these days include 

the ransomware epidemic, the refocusing of 

malware from PCs/laptops to mobile devices, 

the deployment of billions of unprotected or 

little protected Internet of Things (IoT) devices 

or cyberattacks targeting businesses and 

governments. According to several sources, 

there are at least 70 million different pieces 

of malware in circulation worldwide. They are 

disseminated in particular by smartphones 

and other handhelds. Moreover, at least 70% 

of e-mails are spam. 

Compared with a few decades ago, our 

dependence on the Internet and other networks 

for critical services and information has 

grown tremendously. Particular growth has 

occurred in the mobile Internet-enabled new 

types of technology infrastructure such as 

power grids, cloud computing, industrial automation 

networks, intelligent transportation 

systems, e-government and electronic banking, 

which are becoming more and more interconnected. 

As failure in one technology can 

affect other technologies, greater convenience 

and efficiency increases vulnerability 

to cyberattacks and makes any defense 

against such attacks more difficult. 

There is a looming risk that cyber-attacks 

may cause the Internet to break down. In fact, 

if we do not do anything soon, we risk causing 

permanent damage to our economy. The 

incoming US president Donald Trump said during 

his campaign that cybersecurity would be 

“an immediate and top priority” once he comes 

to power. With an emphasis on improving vital 

infrastructure, we therefore expect to see an 

increase in federal spending on security, which 

should benefit cybersecurity companies such 

as Cisco Systems, Palo Alto Networks or 

Check Point Software. 

Cybersecurity then and now 

In the old IT world, you had a protected private 

environment that could be ringfenced with perimeter 

and infrastructure security, separating 

it from the outside world and trying to control 

what gets in and out. This approach is now 

reaching its limits. Firewalls stop most threats, 

typically more than 99%, but unfortunately not 

100%. The remaining less than 1% of threats 

that still come through appears negligible at 

first, but translates into the thousands, as the 

total number of threats amounts to millions. 

Bad news about cybersecurity is good 

news for the IT security industry. We expect 

spending on IT security to grow at a much 

faster pace than underlying IT spending, which 

means it will grab a bigger slice of the cake 

going forward. Industry researcher Gartner 

predicts that worldwide spending on information 

security products and services will reach 

USD 81.6 bn in 2016, an increase of 7.9% 

from the previous year. Currently, this represents 

only about 2.4% of global IT spending, 

which Gartner expects to reach USD 3.4 trn. 

Over the next five years, Gartner foresees an 

annual growth rate of about 8%, which appears 

a little light, in our view, given the growing 

challenges. 

Preferring prevention over planning 

Though many surveys conclude that spending 

for cybersecurity is among the top three priorities 

of chief technology officers (CTOs), 

one can argue that even higher spending is 

justified given the significance of cyberthreats. 

There is a constraint, however, namely 

the associated costs and sometimes even 

the willingness to spend money on cybersecurity. 

One reason not to spend more is the 

lack of a mid-term cybersecurity strategy. 

Many companies still adhere to a stop-andgo 

policy, which means less spending if there 

is no immediate threat or incident and then 

panick and invest if there is. This is especially 

true if an incident is widely published in the 

media, for instance the Sony attack in 2014 

and the attack on the US Office of Personnel 

Management in 2015. As soon as the security 

problem is fixed, however, spending is 

usually reduced again. 

Another reason for the spending restraint 

is that many CTOs tend to opt for preventive 

measures when planning their security strategies, 

a trend poised to continue in years to 

come. However, reality looks different, as preventive 

measures have proven weak in >


“Bad news about cybersecurity is actually 

good news for the IT security industry.” 

Ulrich Kaiser 

Companies are spending 

most for network security 

Security and vulnerability management, and 

network security are the fastest growing 

segments within IT security. Corporate endpoint, 

and Web security are getting disrupted by next 

generation solutions. Source: IDC, CS estimates 

in USD bn 

40000 

35000 

30000 

25000 

20000 

15000 

10000 

5000 

0 

2012 2017 

Network security 

Security and vulnerability 

Endpoint security 

Identity and access management 

Web security 

Messaging security 

Other 

blocking cyberattacks. As a result, many organizations 

have adopted the detection-and-response 

approach to strengthen their security. 

New trends in cybersecurity 

+53 

% 

+83 

% 

We expect security technologies such as security 

information and event management 

(SIEM) and secure Web gateways (SWG) to 

evolve. Organizations are likely to increasingly 

focus on detection and response, because 

taking a preventive approach has not been 

successful in blocking malicious attacks so 

far and probably will not be successful in the 

future. Thus, businesses should balance their 

spending and include both. 

We can imagine security spending to 

evolve to become more service-driven as businesses 

continue to struggle with an overall 

lack of cybersecurity talent in the industry. 

Managed detection and response (MDR) 

is growing as organizations are faced with 

having to use both technology and human 

expertise to pinpoint risks and improve the cyber 

environment. This is especially relevant in 

addressing insider threats and targeted advanced 

threats. 

Hackers wanted – high salary reward 

The purchase and implementation of new security 

technologies is vital to protect businesses, 

and so is the development of cybersecurity 

skills in employees, which are not 

reflected in the Gartner estimates and come 

as additional costs. These are justified by a 

shortage of skilled security professionals, 

which is both dangerous and expensive since 

it leaves businesses vulnerable to attack, resulting 

in reputational damage and data loss. 

The most highly specialized technical skills 

are the ones in greatest demand and claiming 

high salaries. Businesses are seeking professionals 

with expertise in software development, 

attack mitigation, intrusion detection, 

network monitoring and other areas of cybersecurity. 

They need not look far: convince 

hackers to change allegiance, vindicate them 

and use their skills to maintain a safe cyber 

environment. Hackers are motivated by a multitude 

of reasons, such as profit, protest or 

simply challenge. Another reason, and one 

that can be used for the good, is to evaluate 

system weaknesses to help formulate defenses 

against potential hackers. 

Ulrich Kaiser 


+41 44 334 56 49 

ulrich.kaiser@credit-suisse.com


Fintech 

The age of 

cryptofinance 

The invention of bitcoin in 2009 ushered in the age of 

cryptofinance and promised an end to the problems associated 

with physical cash. Although the hype around bitcoin and 

blockchain – the public ledger that records bitcoin transactions – 

is now receding, the next generation of cryptofinance technologies 

is already moving ahead and applying lessons learned. 

INTERVIEW BY CHRISTINE SCHMID, Credit Suisse 

Christine Schmid: Tell me a bit 

about Monetas. 

Johann Gevers The idea of Monetas 

comes out of my desire to do something that 

helps the world work better, not through 

politics but through technology. I thought 

long about what kind of technology would 

make things better. I came to the conclusion 

that the financial system is at the center 

of everything, and that it is too centralized, 

which creates dangerous risks and instability, 

and holds back social progress. We 

saw that during the 2008 financial crisis. 

Moreover, the problems associated with the 

crisis have not been solved. In fact, things 

have gotten worse. We have some measure 

of temporary stability, but the problems 

have gotten bigger. 

In what way? 

Johann Gevers One key aspect is that 

today’s financial system is too centralized: 

there’s too much power concentrated in too 

few hands. And that can lead to abuse of 

power or massive suffering if the centralized 

system fails. So at Monetas we are building 

technologies to help transition the financial 

system toward greater decentralization – 

the democratization of finance. Our solution 

belongs to the category of “cryptofinance” – 

the industry term for financial technologies 

that use encryption algorithms to ensure 

that financial transactions are private and 

secure. 

What exactly is your solution? 

Johann Gevers We’ve developed a technology 

that gives the user more control. 

It’s a contracting platform that gets around 

some of the disadvantages of existing 

cryptofinance technologies and allows you 

to complete transactions in a fraction of 

the time and extremely cheaply. This is especially 

important for retail transactions. 

Let’s backtrack a bit to the existing 

cryptofinance technologies. Most people 

still don’t know what they are. 

Johann Gevers The core invention in 

cryptofinance is true digital cash which – 

unlike physical cash or digital music – cannot 

be copied or counterfeited. This transition 

from traditional physical cash to modern 

digital cash brings tremendous efficiency 

gains. The Bank of England, for example, 

has calculated that switching from physical 

cash to digital cash will generate a sustained 

3% boost to GDP. That is massive, 

and the efficiency and productivity gains are 

even greater for developing countries. 

Where does blockchain fit into this scenario? 

Johann Gevers A blockchain is a distributed 

database – a public ledger for digital 

transactions. It’s a so-called consensus 

system. In other words, it’s a way for a lot 

of different people or, more specifically, 

a lot of different computers all over the 

world to confirm transactions by coming to 

a consensus about them. If you want to 

execute a transaction in a consensus system, 

all these computers have to vote and agree 

on it. That makes a consensus system 

resistant to political influence and corruption, 

as well as robust against technological 

errors and failure, which is a big advantage. 

For example? 

Johann Gevers Consensus systems 

such as blockchains are good for safely 

storing high-value assets and information. 

Commercial registers, which record business 

entities and real estate ownership, are 

one example. Secure electronic voting systems 

are another. 

And the disadvantages of blockchains? 

Johann Gevers The downside is that 

consensus systems are very expensive to 

maintain and to run. In the bitcoin blockchain, 

for example, the full cost of a transaction 

is about five dollars. That’s a lot 

of money. Moreover, let’s say you go to Starbucks 

or to your grocery store and want to 

buy something. When you’re at the checkout 

counter, you don’t want to wait ten 

minutes to several hours for a global network 

of computers to reach consensus before 

the transaction is approved. For retail transactions 

you need a system that’s efficient, 

fast and cheap – and that scales to millions 

of transactions per second. The bitcoin 

network can only handle a maximum of 

7 transactions per second. 

Which brings us back to 

contracting systems. 

Johann Gevers Right. Contracting platforms 

such as Monetas can execute 

transactions in milliseconds, at a cost of 

less than 1/10,000th of a cent, and 

can effortlessly handle the entire world’s 

transactions in real-time. This makes >


Photo: Thomas Eugster 

“If you are restricted to 

physical cash, you can only do 

face-to-face transactions.” 

Johann Gevers


them ideally suited for retail transactions. 

And by integrating contracting platforms 

with consensus systems, you can have the 

best of both worlds. You can securely store 

your assets in a consensus system, and 

efficiently trade those assets in a contracting 

system. 

How does the Monetas platform work? 

Johann Gevers In the Monetas system, 

only the transaction parties need to agree, 

then the transaction is completed. You don’t 

need the slow, expensive agreement of 

millions of unrelated parties, the way you do 

in consensus systems. The first application 

of the Monetas technology is a mobile 

payment system. Anybody in the world can 

download our software onto their mobile 

phone for free and do transactions with 

anybody else who’s got our software. Users 

load digital cash onto their mobile phone 

at an exchanger, such as a kiosk or ATM or 

bank, and can then pay conveniently from 

their mobile phone. The great thing about 

our platform is that it is open, not locked 

into any provider or device. So you can 

do transactions with anyone, regardless 

which mobile phone provider they use, 

or which country they’re in. You don’t even 

need a bank account. So our system is a 

great solution for the 80% of people in 

Africa who have no bank account. And our 

transactions are far cheaper than any 

other system on the market. In fact, they’re 

even cheaper (and more secure) than 

physical cash. Physical cash costs the 

economy about 1–2% of GDP in developed 

countries, and a stunning 5–7% of GDP in 

developing countries. Switching to digital 

cash will provide a tremendous boost to our 

economies. 

Has Monetas gone beyond the 

prototype stage? 

Johann Gevers We launched a successful 

pilot of our platform two months ago 

in South Africa. Our partners are very happy 

with the results and are now planning 

to roll out our platform countrywide to over 

1,000 locations, as well as to further 

countries in Africa. So this is a very exciting 

time for us. 

Looking down the road, who stands 

to benefit most from cryptofinance 

technologies? 

Johann Gevers Well, very clearly, consumers 

are going to benefit immensely. 

These technologies will enable user-friendly 

services that go far beyond what we have 

today. You’ll be able to make transactions 

“The idea of 

Monetas 

comes out 

of my desire to 

do something 

that helps 

the world work 

better, not 

through 

politics but 

through 

technology.” 

Johann Gevers 

Johann Gevers 

is founder and CEO of Monetas, founder 

of Crypto Valley, and founder and president 

of the Digital Finance Compliance 

Association. He is an entrepreneur with 

over 20 years’ experience in business, 

finance and technology, and has served 

as strategic advisor to companies across 

diverse industries, including awardwinning 

technology start-ups. Johann is 

a visionary thought leader in the fintech 

space and was recently rated as one 

of the Top 100 most influential finance 

leaders in Switzerland. 

and safely store your money without having 

to remember passwords and without having 

to carry around keys or electronic cards. 

And you’ll be able to do it all on your mobile 

phone, with better security than traditional 

banking (including cloud backups). 

By connecting billions of unbanked to the 

global economy, these technologies will 

enable everybody in the world to generate 

wealth and improve their quality of life far 

beyond what is possible today. 

Today people are excluded from the 

global economy. 

Johann Gevers Yes. Billions of people – 

more than half of the world’s adults – have 

little or no access to formal financial services, 

and do almost all their transactions 

with physical cash. If you are restricted to 

physical cash, you can only do face-toface 

transactions. That means you are part 

of a very small economic network, which 

severely limits your ability to create wealth. 

So poor people stay poor. One of the fundamental 

requirements for generating 

wealth and improving one’s quality of life is 

being part of a large economic network. 

Today, even in poor countries, virtually 

everyone has a mobile phone. Our mobile 

platform gives everyone with a mobile 

phone access to the world’s most advanced 

financial services, and thus dramatically 

boosts their ability to generate wealth. 

People will use their rising wealth to improve 

their healthcare, education and quality of 

life in general.


Putting 

a roof over 

your head 

Rapid urbanization in the developing economies and demographic changes in the 

advanced economies are two of the dominant trends the global economy is facing. 

Factors such as migration to the cities, population aging, increasing incomes and 

the growing middle class in the emerging economies will have an impact on how we 

live and what our housing requirements are. 

TEXT BY FABIAN WALTERT, Credit Suisse 

2 

1 

CO-HOUSING 

Living in an anonymous society 

comes with a loss of community spirit. 

Co-housing arrangements seek 

to bring back some of the benefits of 

small villages in an increasingly 

urbanized world. 

MULTIGENERATIONAL HOUSING 

Due to urbanization, increasing 

incomes and mobility, it has become 

rare that several generations 

of a family live under the same roof. 

Thus, the benefits of this arrangement 

are disappearing. One initiative 

to rebuild social networks similar 

to families is multigenerational 

housing. 

3 

MICRO-APARTMENTS 

Securing housing affordability 

and preventing segregation is seen 

as crucial for growing cities that 

grapple with rising land prices 

and growing land scarcity. A promising 

approach is to build small 

and affordable micro-apartments.


Population growth in the 21st century 

mainly affects cities that are 

successful in attracting people by 

offering them job opportunities, decent 

healthcare and affordable housing. Cities 

in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the 

Middle East are expected to grow at a higher 

pace, mainly driven by people seeking a better 

life and hoping to become part of the rising 

middle class. However, urbanization is not 

only a phenomenon of the emerging economies. 

Cities in the advanced economies are 

also growing, albeit at a slower pace. London, 

for example, is expected to reach a population 

of over 10 million by 2031, an increase 

of 15% compared to today. It is expected that 

by 2030, 41 such megacities will exist, up 

from 28 in 2015. Around 12 of them will be 

situated in emerging economies. The United 

Nations is even predicting the advent of the 

first so-called gigacity (more than 100 million 

residents) in China by 2020. This trend will 

take 6.3 billion people to global urban centers 

by 2050, an increase of 75% from today, with 

two out of three residents around the world 

living in urban areas by then. 

Efficiency and focus on affordability 

The strong flow of people to prosperous cities 

is a result of the economic benefits such 

cities offer. However, attracting more and 

more people is going to put pressure on infrastructure 

and land prices, further lifting 

prices of urban real estate and thus reducing 

its affordability. Furthermore, the stronger 

competition for space will increase urban 

density. One answer to that development is 

to reduce the size of apartments. This effect 

is already visible in certain megacities such 

as Tokyo, where apartments today are 14% 

smaller than a decade ago. Thus, the main 

challenge for residential developers will be to 

find out how they can use limited space more 

efficiently and in an affordable manner. 

New and different types of housing 

Another key challenge for nearly all countries 

will be the demographic shift that will fundamentally 

affect the demand structure for 

real estate. According to the United Nations, 

the share of people aged 60 or older will rise 

by 2.8% per annum from 2025 to 2030. 

While the developing economies will have the 

youngest population, they will also record the 

fastest pace of population aging. The growing 

urban middle class of the emerging economies 

will increase demand for housing both 

in terms of quantity and quality. Meanwhile, 

the aging baby boomer generation in the 

advanced economies will require the development 

of new housing alternatives. An increase 

in the share of older people will 

change not only the way communities organize 

services so that care is more accessible, 

but also the cultural view of aging to make 

sure that the older generation is integrated in 

the community. 

Shifting demographic trends will likely 

create a strong need for new and different 

types of housing. As the elderly tend to be 

healthier than in the past, many do not consider 

nursing homes an attractive alternative 

to their existing homes. At the same time, 

increasing mobility – a further megatrend – 

tends to increase the spatial distance among 

family members. Thus, senior citizens are 

likely to increasingly search for alternative 

housing that is designed to accommodate 

their changing needs as they grow older. 

Answers to the challenges 

These two megatrends – urbanization and demographic 

shift – will result in several challenges: 

scarcity and unaffordability of housing, 

lack of accessibility of services for families 

and the elderly and loss of communal 

spirit. The search for answers to these challenges 

is still going on. However, the real estate 

industry and a multitude of local citizens’ 

initiatives are suggesting possible routes in 

a variety of alternative housing projects that 

are emerging around the globe. Among the 

most promising of these approaches are: micro-apartments, 

multigenerational housing 

and co-housing. All of them address some of 

the challenges emerging on the global housing 

market and could serve as future housing 

solutions. 

Fabian Waltert 

Real Estate Analyst 

+41 44 333 25 57 

fabian.waltert@credit-suisse.com


1 

Photo: Jeremy M. Lang 

The Pacifica Cohousing community in Carrboro, North Carolina. Co-housing offers the benefits of small villages in an urbanized world. 

Residents inhabit private spaces but share goods and services within the community. 

Co-housing 

Originated in Denmark in the 1960s and then picked up by 

many regions all over the world, co-housing describes a 

communal way of living where people inhabit private spaces 

accompanied by shared facilities for the community. 

The management of these communities is not hierarchical. 

The inhabitants decide demo cratically by considering the 

desires and needs of all residents. Life in a co-housing 

community is characterized by different shared activities 

within the community (e. g. group care, shared meals, 

support in shopping, social interaction, etc.), where participation 

is desirable, but not mandatory. These communities 

are very heterogeneous in their purposes and objectives, 

and they can be found in urban, suburban and rural 

areas. For example, Older Women’s Co-Housing in Great 

Britain seeks to establish a community for women aged 

over 50, in what can be seen as a special form of multigenerational 

housing. Others, like Pacifica Cohousing in 

the USA, put more emphasis on creating communal 

living with a focus on sustainability. The main idea behind 

the co- housing movement is to find answers to the changing 

needs of people around the world rather than to 

provide a solution for the problems associated with the 

demographic shift. The main economic advantage of 

co-housing is the opportunity to share goods and services 

within the community. People may also enjoy the community 

spirit otherwise lost in today’s anonymous urban 

areas. Yet monetary participation and cooperation among 

participants is forced, which can lead to friction within 

the community. However, co-housing is likely to become 

increasingly relevant as a housing alternative, bringing 

back some of the benefits of small villages in an increasingly 

urbanized world.


Multigenerational housing 

As incomes and mobility increase, it has become rare in 

many countries for multiple generations to live under the 

same roof. Thus, the benefits of this traditional housing 

arrangement (such as free care for children and the 

elderly) are disappearing. In addition, the growing number 

of elderly increases public care costs. An initiative to rebuild 

the social network similar to families was taken 

in Germany with the so-called “Mehrgenerationenhäuser” 

(multigenerational houses). The idea behind such 

houses is to create an environment that accommodates 

the elderly, children and nurseries, where young and old 

can support each other. The “Lighthouse” in Berlin is 

one example of a multigenerational house where 29 adults 

aged from 26 to 70, 14 children between 2 and 13 years of 

age and several pets live together, creating a family of 

choice for many of them. They epitomize the very idea of 

the sharing economy, as the senior residents, for example, 

read books to the children and the teenagers train the 

elderly to use computers. Multigenerational living is not 

only a socializing project for the older generation. It also 

helps provide new housing options for open- minded 

younger people that are priced out of the regular housing 

market and are happy to find an affordable place to live. 

A more extended form of multigenerational housing can be 

found in intergenerational living projects, where nursing 

homes and nurseries exist under one roof. Such arrangements 

are expected to significantly reduce the cost of care. 

While multigenerational housing may be considered a 

niche model rather than the global solution to the housing 

problems associated with demographic change, it is a 

promising model for the future. 

2 

The Murundaka Cohousing Community in Melbourne, Australia, is an example of multigenerational housing. 

The idea is to bring together young and old in an environment where they can support each other, at affordable cost.


3 

The Nakagin Capsule Tower 

in Tokyo, Japan, was an 

early experiment in microapartments. 

Hardly larger 

than a big living room, these 

tiny dwellings offer a solution 

to the twin problems of 

sustainability and affordable 

housing in city centers. 

Photo: Manakin / Getty Images 

Micro-apartments 

Photo: Chris Grose 

Small, often sustainable and, most importantly, affordable. 

This is how micro-apartments or tiny houses can be described. 

The idea is to downsize apartments to 20 to 30 square meters, 

in some cases even less, and making access to affordable 

housing in city centers and near workplaces possible. One 

of the first and most radical buildings with micro-apartments 

was the Nakagin Capsule Tower built in Japan in the 1970s. 

It contains 140 stan dardized capsules of less than nine square 

meters each. Meanwhile, with cities growing exponentially 

and land becoming more scarce and expensive, the idea of 

micro-apartments is gaining relevance again. In New York City, 

for example, a project called Carmel Place was finished in 

2016. It is the first modern building in New York where the 

size of apartments is allowed to be smaller than defined by 

regulation, featuring 55 micro-apartments in a nine-story 

building. The apartments are furnished, every room is cleaned 

once a week and there are additional amenities offered to 

the tenants such as a gym. Critics argue that people will feel 

lonely and isolated in such apartments, that apartments tend 

to become smaller while rents stay the same and that such 

small living quarters may create the slums of the future by attracting 

low-income tenants. However, micro-apartments 

allow young people, professionals, service-industry workers 

and retirees to live in central, otherwise unaffordable locations 

and thus counter segregation trends. 



Photo: Bram Belloni 

Mid-level white-collar jobs are disappearing, says Randstad CEO Jacques van den Broek. The result is a very different job market.


Flexible working 

Labor in the 

new millennium 

Numerous factors that include automation and robotics, longer life expectancy, 

underfunded pension systems and younger generations who think differently are changing 

the supply and demand for jobs as we know them. 

INTERVIEW BY RETO HESS, Credit Suisse 

Reto Hess: Digitization – specifically 

information and communications technology 

(ICT) – is having an ever greater impact 

on our daily lives, including our working lives. 

How big a change are we looking at? 

Jacques van den Broek We recently 

published the 2016 edition of our “Flexibility 

@work report” on the future of work in the 

digital age, focusing specifically on the 

consequences we see nowadays of digitization. 

There are two trains of thought here: 

one, more fatalistic, is that about 40% 

of jobs are disappearing. But the second, 

espoused in a separate report put out 

by the OECD in May, maintains that 50% 

of jobs would change naturally in any event. 

What do you notice in terms of what your 

clients are asking for today? 

Jacques van den Broek People get fixed 

on an ideal profile, which tells you right 

away that they don’t know much about the 

labor market. For example, a client might 

wish to have a person in their mid-30s with 

relevant skills who has been successful 

at your main competitor but is looking for a 

new challenge in your company. It’s not 

going to happen. Increasingly we try to steer 

companies away from their ideal profiles 

in the direction of younger people, older 

people or maybe people from another country. 

Have you observed any shift in demand 

from knowledge-based jobs to more 

creative or socially oriented jobs as a result 

of increasing ICT and automation? 

Jacques van den Broek No. It’s a bit 

early. If you’re talking about artificial intelligence 

(AI), for example, the highest level 

of artificial intelligence that we see today in 

our sector has the intellect of a two-year- 

Jacques van den Broek 

is CEO and chairman of the Executive 

Board of Randstad Holding nv. He 

graduated in law at Tilburg University in 

the Netherlands and briefly held a 

management position at Vendex International 

before joining Randstad as a 

branch manager in 1988. He joined the 

Executive Board in 2004. 

old. So in 78% of cases, AI now recognizes 

a picture of a cat as being a cat. When it 

comes to selecting a personal profile – and 

certainly that of a knowledge worker – 

it will be quite a few years before technology 

can make that choice. AI first has to reach 

“technological singularity,” which is when 

machines surpass human intelligence. If this 

happens, scientists predict that cognitive 

professions could be improved and maybe 

partially substituted. 

That said, the report you mentioned at 

the beginning does state that progress in 

ICT is leading to job polarization, where 

there is demand for high-tech, high-paid 

jobs and low-tech, low-paid jobs, 

but the jobs in the middle are losing out. 

What is going on there? 

Jacques van den Broek You have nonroutine 

tasks at the top and low ends of 

the labor market. A gardener does a nonroutine 

task that cannot be automated. 

A nurse does non-routine tasks that can 

only partly be automated. What is interesting 

is that mid-level white-collar jobs, which 

previously were highly regarded, are very 

quickly disappearing. And that’s an issue, 

because most of the social systems >


“People become fixed on 

an ideal profile, which tells 

you right away that they 

don’t know much about the 

labor market.” 

Jacques van den Broek 

Jacques van den Broek If you’re talking 

ICT professionals, their main reason for doing 

a job is the attractiveness of the project. 

In addition, and especially if they’re young, 

they are increasingly reluctant to leave 

home. And these are jobs that can be performed 

remotely. So yes, the workforce 

of the future – in addition to being 18 to 68, 

will be partly remote and partly freelancers. 

Indeed, we think that between 30% and 

35% of the total workforce will have a job 

that is not fixed. 

In terms of generations, you have a 

programin the Netherlands that helps 

older employees. 

Jacques van den Broek You’re talking 

about +Power. Which is not necessarily 

to say that old is ideal. In the Netherlands, 

we are heavily advocating stepping away a 

bit from the bias of ideal profiles and instead 

look at what people bring to the marketplace. 

But it’s early days. It’s still a 

hard sell for us to get older people back into 

the workforce. 

Why is that? 

Jacques van den Broek Biases are one 

reason. Another is that owing to pay scales 

and pay models, over time people outprice 

themselves in the labor market. It’s also 

linked to demand. The last time we were 

really creating different profiles was in 2007, 

which is also the last time we saw serious 

economic growth in Europe. Ten years ago! 

Once growth returns, clients will lose their 

reluctance. Right now, people are thinking 

short term; but in the long term, look at 

the demographics. Clients need to be open 

to new profiles anyway. So do employees. 

When people lose their job, the first thing 

they do is look for the same job that just 

disappeared, which is always tough. 

Employers and employees have a joint rebuilt 

just after the Second World War – 

pensions, healthcare, education – hinge on 

a middle class. And that needs to change. 

We’re looking at a different labor market. 

What can be done to address the problem? 

Jacques van den Broek Companies 

need to do mid- to long-term planning to 

see how their workforce can change. Countries 

need to create proactive labor market 

policies. If, as a country, you create a STEM 

(science, technology, engineering and medicine) 

hub – a knowledge hub – like the 

Rust Belt in the USA or the Eindhoven area 

in the Netherlands, for every STEM job 

you attract, you get 2.5 to 4 low- to mid-level 

jobs surrounding this activity for all sorts 

of reasons. Canada, for example, attracts 

1% of its total workforce almost every year 

based on a very clear agenda. Europe has 

no proactive labor market policy. And therefore, 

the people who want to come here 

are not necessarily the people we need. 

How is your business model 

at Randstad evolving? 

Jacques van den Broek A few things 

are happening. First, labor markets are increasingly 

mismatched, both on a country 

level and internationally. There’s no real 

scarcity of people, but people live in the 

wrong places. So we see a role for us in allocating 

work around the globe. Of course, 

this needs to be facilitated by governments 

and accepted by clients. But eventually, 

there will be no choice. We also see a much 

more diverse workforce in terms of age – 

18 to 68, for example – and more made-tomeasure 

arrangements at work because 

not everybody will opt for a full-time job. So 

we see a role for us in creative workforce 

planning, too. 

Do you see much of a trend 

toward freelancing? 

sponsibility to safeguard employability. 

We start a conversation to redefine their 

competencies toward different jobs that are 

available in the labor market. 

What happens when you add millennials 

into the labor market mix? 

Jacques van den Broek You see slight 

differences. Millennials are concerned 

about a sense of purpose and work/life balance. 

They want to work for start-ups 

and small companies. As an employer, you 

have to think about how to attract this 

group. There is still quite a divide between 

what companies think are their unique 

selling propositions and what people are 

looking for in the workplace. We believe that 

adapting to the needs of the new generation 

will be key in attracting the right talent. 

As a candidate, is it an advantage 

for me to be on social networks? 

Jacques van den Broek Of course. If you 

are unknown, it’s impossible for us to find 

you. In the old days, when people came into 

my branch, I’d say to them, let’s stay in 

touch. Because if I have not found something 

after two weeks, then all the candidates 

will have come in. It works roughly the same 

in social media. If you want to send a very 

subtle sign that you’re looking for a job, 

change your profile picture on Facebook. 

We’ll know.


Young and 

car-free 

For many adults, driving is associated with freedom. In many industrialized countries, 

however, today’s young people are using cars less and less. We look at what caused 

this trend and whether it is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. 

100% 

Percentage of 

licensed drivers aged 

18–24 years 

87% 

Source: US Department of Transportation, 

Swiss Federal Statistical Office 

84% 

81% 

USA 

2014 

77% 

71% 

69% 

63% 

2010 

2005 

2000 

1994 

50% 

59% 

Photo: macida / Getty Images


A 

car used to be seen as a status 

symbol, associated with freedom 

and adulthood. This appears to no 

longer hold true. In recent years, 

there have been signs of diminishing interest 

in cars among young adults in industrialized 

countries such as the USA, Norway, the 

Netherlands, UK, Germany and Japan. This 

trend, which began in the 1990s, first manifested 

itself in fewer driver’s licenses among 

young adults compared to previous generations 

at the same age. In the USA, for instance, 

the percentage of licensed drivers 

aged 20 to 24 years declined from 87.2% in 

1994 to 76.7% 2014. In most countries, this 

decline was accompanied by a general decrease 

in car use, as evidenced in a lower 

number of daily car trips and daily miles traveled 

by car among young adults. While in 

some countries, for instance Germany, young 

adults are using alternative means of transport 

such as trains and bicycles, in the USA, 

travel demand among the young overall has 

decreased. 

The drivers of changes in mobility 

There are two fundamentally different theories 

to help explain these changing mobility patterns. 

The first is based on socioeconomic 

factors, such as length of education and the 

age of marriage, which have changed considerably 

in recent years. The significant rise in 

the economic return on education has resulted 

in higher school enrollment. This trend was 

additionally fueled by the recent recession. In 

the USA, college enrollment jumped significantly 

more than the secular uptrend, since 

people with a low level of education were encouraged 

to continue their education to increase 

their chances of finding employment. 

The proportion of 25- to 30-year-old Americans 

with college degrees increased by four 

percentage points between 1995 and 2009, 

whereas the employment rate of the same 

cohort decreased by nine percentage points. 

This pattern can also be observed in most 

OECD countries. Due to more years spent on 

education, the age when people enter the job 

market has increased, which implies lower or 

no income during the student years and delayed 

marriages and parenthood. If the reason 

for the decline in car use is lower income in 

younger years and postponed family formation, 

then young adults are likely to travel more 

frequently by car as they get older and settle 

down. This theory is summarized in a phrase 

coined by a Netherlands Institute for Transport 

Policy Analysis report on the changing 

mobility behavior of young adults, “not carless, 

but car-later.” 

Preferences reshape mobility needs 

The second theory suggests that today’s 

young adults have different attitudes and mobility 

preferences than previous generations. 

Hence, the decline in car use is also the result 

of generation-specific factors. This theory is 

supported by statistics on young adults in Germany, 

for instance, who despite car ownership 

use their cars less often. One possible reason 

for this change in attitudes is information and 

communication technology, which substitutes 

physical travel with virtual mobility. Much of 

the freedom car ownership grants, for example 

access to information and products, catching 

up with family and friends, is today made 

possible by smartphones, online shopping and 

social media. A further change of attitude, 

which is related to cars being seen as a status 

symbol, is the transition from ownership 

to sharing. Today the car is seen as a useful 

tool that can be borrowed when needed, similar 

to streaming music instead of buying a CD. 

This trend is confirmed by a global rise in car 

sharing. From 2006 to 2014, the number of 

members of car sharing networks globally increased 

from 346,610 to 4.8 million. In the 

USA alone, the car sharing market is forecast 

to reach 3.8 million members by 2020 (1.3 

million in 2014). 

Conclusions and implications 

Most research studies show that the decrease 

in car ownership is most likely caused by a 

combination of the above factors, but predominantly 

by socioeconomic ones. The social 

factors outlined earlier, such as the trend toward 

longer education and postponed family 

formation, in conjunction with a lower income, 

have created a situation in which young adults 

are less inclined to use or buy a car. However, 

once young adults get older, their interest in 

cars is likely to increase. The impact of virtual 

mobility and smartphones on mobility is 

probably not quite as important since these 

technologies became widely used after the 

use of cars began to diminish. While a shift 

away from car ownership to sharing could impact 

the auto industry as personal car sales 

decline, this effect could be partly offset by 

increased sales of shared vehicles. Indeed, a 

report by McKinsey on the perspective of the 

automotive industry concludes that a shift toward 

shared mobility could lead to lower 

growth in global car sales. However, global 

car sales are expected to continue to show 

positive growth of around 2% p.a. by 2030. 

Based on these arguments, the change in mobility 

behavior will likely pose a challenge, but 

not a severe threat to the auto industry. 

Julia Dumanskaya 


+41 44 333 92 83 

julia.dumanskaya@credit-suisse.com


Millennials 

drive 

sustainability 

Sustainability is a key concern for the millennials generation. 

Companies have to adapt processes and production practices to 

make their products sustainable and thus seize the opportunities 

this rapidly growing generation of consumers creates. 

The millennials generation (people 

born roughly between the 1980s 

and sometime in the early 2000s) is 

the most sustainability-conscious 

generation. Recent studies from Nielsen and 

Deloitte show that millennials are most willing 

to pay more for products and services seen 

as sustainable or coming from socially and 

environmentally responsible companies. As 

millennials are a rapidly growing consumer 

market, and an influential one, we look at how 

companies evolve to bring them on board, 

particularly how this concern about sustainability 

affects products and production in various 

sectors. 

Fishery shows the way 

Human rights violations in Asia’s fish, prawn 

and shrimp farms have attracted widespread 

media coverage. A major newspaper investigation 

in 2014 revealed that CP Foods, the 

world’s largest prawn farmer, had bought fish 

from Thai suppliers operating or buying from 

fishing boats manned by slaves. The fish ended 

up on the shelves of leading supermarket 

chains such as Walmart, Carrefour, Costco 

and Tesco, forcing companies to quickly react. 

Within a week, Carrefour decided to stop purchases 

from CP Foods, and CP Foods issued 

a statement condemning slavery and committing 

itself to behave responsibly under the 

monitoring of independent non-government 

organizations. 

The sustainable seafood movement that 

began in the 1990s highlighted the impact of 

overfishing or destructive fishing methods on 

the environment. Social marketing through 

ecolabel and awareness campaigns is helping 

consumers to make informed choices potentially 

contributing to the conservation of the 

environment. Ecolabeling consists of evaluating 

the production process with set environmental 

standards by independent third parties. 

If the process fulfills requirements, the producer 

or marketer can use the ecolabel in its 

marketing and the consumer knows that the 

product was produced sustainably. Producers 

can often obtain premium prices for these 

products. 

Sustainable supply chains are key 

For the seafood industry today, this means 

that companies have to guarantee sustainable 

seafood, i.e. only harvesting species of fish 

that are in abundant supply, caught using environmentally 

friendly methods and respecting 

human rights. 

Companies are also realizing that building 

a sustainable supply chain has the potential 

to bring new clients and success. Tetley Tea 

(Tata Global Beverages) is growing tea sustainably 

and its campaign where smallholder 

farmers and tea estate workers post items 

about their daily lives and work and communicate 

with customers has been a great success. 

Tata Global Beverages first identified 

the need to develop a sustainable supply chain 

following disruptions in availability and prices 

of its tea supply. It now seeks to certify an increasing 

part of its tea supply under the Rainforest 

Alliance certification, which meets environmental, 

social and economic standards. 

With more food needed to feed a growing 

population and ever-increasing environmental 

challenges ranging from water scarcity to herbicide 

resistance, the food and beverages industry 

is leading the way to help set standards 

for sustainable agriculture. Nestlé and Unilever 

are among them. Unilever reported faster 

growth for its brands with a sustainability purpose 

compared to the rest of the business, 

and these brands contributed nearly half of 

the firm’s total growth in 2015. Nestlé has set 

specific requirements for palm oil, paper and 

board, sugar, soy, cocoa, coffee, diary, fish, 

seafood, meat, poultry, eggs, vanilla and hazelnuts, 

and sources 43% of these commodities 

from sustainable sources in 2015. 

More transparency in the apparel industry 

After the tragic collapse of the Rana Plaza 

factory building in Bangladesh in April 2013, 

many global fashion companies reacted and 

signed the Bangladesh Accord with the Bangladeshi 

government and workers’ trade 

unions to make factories safe, and global 

brands agreed to monitor how the factories 

supplying their goods are run. 

The difficulty is that the fashion industry 

constantly moves its supply chain to new locations 

and suppliers use unapproved outsourcing. 

Recently, a BBC investigation revealed 

unethical practices in the Turkish textile 

industry, involving child workers. The companies 

involved claimed these practices were 

contrary to their code of conduct and that they 

happened in unapproved source factories. 

As with the food industry, raw materials 

such as cotton or processes such as dyeing 

can be performed in a sustainable way. Fair 

trade cotton labels appear on garments or are 

developed as lines of products.


To date, the industry still lacks transparency, 

but fair cotton standards and labels have 

emerged and companies have developed 

governance standards to foster sustainability. 

In the future, we are likely to see new brands 

emerge that will reinvent the business model, 

using recycled or recyclable materials, or better 

manufacturing standards. 

Reshaping the automotive industry 

If we apply sustainability to the automobile industry 

and the fight against climate change 

and pollution in this case, we can expect millennials 

to favor electric cars over diesel cars 

and shared cars over owned cars. 

The emission scandal involving Volkswagen 

in 2015 has changed the automotive industry. 

Traditional automakers are in private 

discussions about the end of diesel in ten 

years. Stricter emissions testing leaves no 

choice for the traditional carmakers but to engage 

in electric cars. Developments in technology 

companies such as Google or new entrants 

such as Tesla are pushing car companies 

to already act today. This year, the manufacturers 

have revealed ambitious electric 

auto development programs. Daimler raised 

its capex program at the start of the year and 

will develop premium electric cars, which is a 

segment dominated by Tesla at the moment. 

Continental, a supplier to German original 

equipment manufacturers (OEMs), also just 

announced a step-up in capex. Volkswagen 

has announced that, by 2025, 25% of its vehicles 

will be electric. BMW was among the 

first to launch electric vehicles. Companies 

have recognized the need to spend money now 

and in the years to come. 

Autonomous driving is another development. 

More and more features are being added 

to cars, from autonomous parking to semiautonomous 

driving. While legislation hurdles 

still have to be passed, we can envisage fully 

autonomous driving becoming a reality in the 

next decade or so. Given that millennials have 

already adopted sharing behaviors, autonomous 

driving will facilitate the development of 

the sharing model for cars. Again, traditional 

OEMs have recognized this development and 

are acquiring companies in the sharing car 

market to offer such services themselves. 

Growth through sustainability 

economy. We see spending diverted away 

from traditional retail products. The sportswear 

industry is benefiting strongly as sports 

items have become part of everyday wear in 

the search for health and wellness. Eating 

smart and from organic or local sources instead 

of eating food produced through chemically 

polluting-intensive agricultural practices 

or industrial processing has led to the development 

of specialty grocers such as Whole 

Foods or Sprouts Farmers Market. The traditional 

food retailers have also evolved to address 

this trend, and have captured a bigger 

share of the natural/organic industry in recent 

years. Smaller brands are appearing in the 

staples industry and gaining market share. In 

the healthcare industry, millennials are embracing 

alternative medicine rather than conventional 

medical treatments and prescription 

drugs. Natural remedies and alternative medicines 

feel safer and cleaner and are more in 

line with millennials’ values. 

Millennials are an influential and rapidly 

growing consumer market. Established industries 

must now adapt their business models if 

they want millennials on board. Companies 

must deliver good social and environmental 

performance and engage in sustainable practices 

or their future growth could be at risk. 

New companies are being created to embrace 

new opportunities. 

Julie Saussier 


+41 44 333 12 56 

julie.saussier-clement@credit-suisse.com 

“Sharing instead 

of consuming leads to 

the development of 

the sharing economy.” 


More generally, this search for sustainable 

behavior is pushing millennials to adopt new 

consumer habits, thus opening up new growth 

opportunities. Sharing instead of consuming 

is leading to the development of the sharing


FEEDING FUTURE GENERATIONS 

How weather affects agriculture and what IBM can do with precision weather forecasts to help farmers. Source: IBM 

INCREASING CROP YIELDS 

90% 

of all crop losses are due to weather. 

Weather-related crop damage could be 

reduced by 25% using predictive weather 

modeling and precision agriculture techniques. 

PRECISION AGRICULTURE 

IBM is using data to help farmers be more 

efficient in their operations and make more precise 

decisions about planting, growing, harvesting 

and transporting crops, leading to better price 

points and a stable supply chain. 

WEATHER MODELING 

DEEP THUNDER 

IBM’s Deep Thunder is a service that 

provides a hyperlocal forecast up to 

36 hours in advance with 90% accuracy. 

SENSORS 

GROWING 

70% 

of fresh water worldwide is 

used for agriculture purposes. 

If farmers know when and where 

it’s going to rain they can better 

schedule their irrigation and 

know when they should put down 

fertilizer, to avoid runoff.


Farmer 

CTOs 

Farmers are among the most prominent 

adopters of robotic technologies. New 

applications using the Internet of Things (IoT), 

Big Data and robotics may well revolutionize 

the agricultural sector in the next ten years. 

This could help to solve the current mismatch 

between rising demand for food and limited 

arable land capacity. 

TRANSPORTATION 

50% 

of food ready for harvest never 

reaches the consumers mouth. 

By understanding the effect of weather 

on transportation networks, companies 

can make better decisions on which 

routes will be the fastest to transport 

their food. 

THE IMPACT 

As farmers reduce waste 

and increase crop yields, 

consumers will feel the 

positive economic impact 

at the grocery store. 

In the past, a farmer was seen as someone who loves nature and 

leads a strenuous, rather solitary life with little connection to the 

outside world. Furthermore, farmers were often considered to be 

highly critical of progress. Today, however, automation and digitization 

are becoming increasingly important in farming – a vital and 

essential element to solve problems in the agricultural sector. From 

vertical farming, where fruits and vegetables are digitally monitored 

and grown in artificial greenhouses, to vast farmlands that are connected 

to the Internet using sensors, robots and Big Data solutions 

are used to reduce costs and improve crop yields. Furthermore, digital 

farming can also help to cultivate new areas of farmland. In future, 

therefore, farmers look set to become the chief technology officers 

(CTOs) of agriculture. 

Food availability constraints ask for new solutions 

Illustration: IBM, C3, The Noun Project 

The United Nations (UN) predicts that the global population will rise 

from 7.3 billion today to 9.7 billion in 2050. The UN Food and Agriculture 

Organization (FAO) predicts that this growth would require increasing 

overall food production by about 70%, as the growing middle class 

places increased demand on food products. Demand for livestock, 

dairy products and other commodities is highly correlated to higher 

income in the developing countries. There is a clear need to further 

improve the efficiency of farming existing arable land and thus increase 

output. However, arable land is concentrated in Oceania and the USA, 

creating a major mismatch with where the global population is. For 

example, food availability in China is increasingly constrained, and >


efficiency improvements alone cannot solve the problem. Cultivating 

new arable land is important as well. 

Robotics and drones for growers 

The increasing strain on food supply, the availability and cost of farm 

workers, the challenges and complexities of farm labor, shrinking 

farmlands, climate change and the growth of indoor farming all argue 

in favor of increasingly employing robots in agriculture. Recent progress 

in making processing power cheaper, combined with artificial 

intelligence and the increasing learning power of machines, enables 

a new kind of e-farming. 

While milking systems are already widely deployed, we believe the 

demand for driverless tractors or semiautonomous vehicles, synced 

vehicles and processing equipment as well as smart agriculture applications 

such as traceability or swarm robots for the harvest season 

could increase exponentially because of the expected momentum in 

innovation. For instance, drones can be used for observation (security) 

and to detect areas where crops are failing to grow. In the latter 

case, the drones would call collectively programmed swarm robots 

to protect or recover the affected areas. According to a report from 

Tractica (“Agricultural Robots,” July 2015), annual shipments of agricultural 

robots are likely to reach 992,000 worldwide by 2024, up 

from just 33,000 in 2015. Tractica forecasts that some of the largest 

application segments will include unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or 

drones) for agricultural purposes, soil management robots, material 

management robots, driverless tractors and dairy management robots. 

Agritechnology in Africa, a new growth area 

Africa is said to have a quarter of the world’s arable land, but 80% of 

it is underutilized or simply lies idle. Most of the remaining 20% is in 

the hands of small-scale peasant farmers that are unfamiliar with 

commercial farming to improve production. There are a multitude of 

projects in Africa that focus on improving crop yields and cultivating 

new farmland with the help of information technology. The bottleneck 

so far is access to the Internet in rural areas. However, research firm 

McKinsey estimates that Africa will triple its Internet penetration 

to over 50% – the equivalent of 600 million regular Internet users – 

by 2025. 

Projects such as IBM’s EZ Farm use Big Data and the IoT to provide 

farmers and water service providers with insights into current 

and predicted water and soil moisture levels via smartphone applications. 

As part of this project, farms are equipped with cheap water 

tanks, soil moisture and infrared light sensors to monitor the health 

of plants, resulting in higher yields and lower farming costs. Smartphone 

applications from other firms such as M-Farm, iCow, Farm- 

Drive, WeFarm or MbeguChoice offer access to education (such as 

feeding practices or disease control), provide better, drought-tolerant 

seed varieties and give financing and troubleshooting support. The 

investments for digital farming are increasingly coming from outside 

of Africa. For instance, Chinese companies have acquired farmland 

in Congo, Mozambique and Angola and are using IT to cultivate new 

farmland in these areas. 

Precision farming increases efficiency 

John Deere, a leader of high-tech machinery in the agriculture sector, 

is taking the IoT into the field and boosting efficiencies with the 

help of SAP’s Big Data solutions. Sensors on the John Deere equipment 

help farmers to manage their fleet and decrease downtime of 

their tractors and save fuel. The information is combined with historical 

and real-time weather data, soil conditions, crop features and 

many other kinds of data. The so-called precision farming hardware 

market (using displays, GPS, yield monitors and sensors) is expected 

to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11.7% between 2015 

and 2020 and reach USD 4.8 billion, according to research firm 

MarketsandMarkets. The potential benefits of software application in 

farming – such as higher yields, low input waste, reduced financial 

losses – could turn out to be very high. The FAO expects that precision 

farming could lift crop yields by 70% by 2050 and thus make a 

valuable contribution to feeding the world. 

Uwe Neumann 


+41 44 334 56 45 

uwe.neumann@credit-suisse.com

GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 — 51 

Authors 


Research Analyst......................................................... 

lorenzo.biasio@credit-suisse.com.................................. 

+41 44 333 14 79....................................................... 

Lorenzo Biasio is a research analyst in Global Equity 

and Credit Research at Credit Suisse, covering the 

healthcare sector. Prior to joining Credit Suisse in 2014, 

he was a management consultant in the pharma/ 

healthcare space. Lorenzo holds a Master’s degree in 

Biology from ETH Zurich, Switzerland. 

> Pages 10, 13, 16, 27, 33, 36–37, 41–43, 48–50, 52–53, 58 

Uwe Neumann 


uwe.neumann@credit-suisse.com................................. 

+41 44 334 56 45....................................................... 

Uwe Neumann is a senior research analyst in the Global 

Equity and Credit Research team at Credit Suisse 

Inter national Wealth Management, covering the telecom 

and technology sectors. He has 29 years of experience 

in the securities and banking business, holds a Master of 

Economics from the University of Constance, Germany, 

and is a CEFA Charterholder. > Page 03 

Julia Dumanskaya 


julia.dumanskaya@credit-suisse.com............................. 

+41 44 333 92 83....................................................... 

Julia Dumanskaya is a research analyst in Economic 

Research at Credit Suisse, working in the Fundamental 

Macroeconomics team. She joined Credit Suisse in 

2011 and has five years of experience as a financial and 

research analyst in the Foreign Exchange team as 

well as in the Economic Research team. Julia holds an 

MA in Economics and Business Administration from 

the University of Zurich, Switzerland. > Pages 44–45 



julie.saussier-clement@credit-suisse.com...................... 

+41 44 333 12 56....................................................... 

Julie Saussier is a senior research analyst in the Global 

Equity team, covering the consumer discretionary sector. 

She has 14 years of experience as a research analyst 

and joined Credit Suisse in 2015. She holds a Master’s 

degree in Business and Management from the University 

of Paris-Dauphine and a Master’s degree in Corporate 

Finance from the Emlyon Business School, France, and is 

a CFA Charterholder. > Pages 07, 11, 15, 22, 26, 30–32 

Reto Hess 


reto.hess@credit-suisse.com........................................ 

+41 44 334 56 24....................................................... 

Reto Hess is a senior research analyst at Credit Suisse 

International Wealth Management with 12 years of 

experience in equity research and investment management. 

He heads the Global Equity Research team and 

covers the European and US industrials sector. Further, 

Reto is a CFA and CAIA Charterholder and holds a Master 

of Science from the University of Zurich, Switzerland. 

> Pages 08–09, 12, 38–43, 59, 61 

Ulrich Kaiser 


ulrich.kaiser@credit-suisse.com.................................... 

+41 44 334 56 49....................................................... 

Ulrich Kaiser is a senior financial analyst of Credit Suisse in 

the International Wealth Management Division, covering 

the technology sector. He joined Credit Suisse in 1993 and 

has 28 years of experience in the securities and banking 

business. He received his Master of Economics from 

the University of Constance, Germany, and is a CEFA 

Charterholder. > Pages 17, 23, 44–47, 51, 60, 62 

Christine Schmid 

Head of Global Equity and Credit Research................... 

christine.schmid@credit-suisse.com.............................. 

+41 44 334 56 43....................................................... 

Christine Schmid is Head of Global Equit and Credit 

Research at Credit Suisse International Wealth 

Management. She has 23 years of experience and covers 

the financials sector. She holds an MA in Economics 

from the University of Zurich and is a CFA Charterholder. 

> Pages 14, 34–35 

Fabian Waltert 


fabian.waltert@credit-suisse.com.................................. 

+41 44 333 25 57....................................................... 

Fabian Waltert is a senior economist at Credit Suisse 

International Wealth Management. He covers Swiss 

real estate and construction and holds a PhD in 

Economics from the University of Zurich, Switzerland. 

> Pages 14, 34–35 

Angus Muirhead 

Senior Portfolio Manager.............................................. 

angus.muirhead@credit-suisse.com.............................. 

+41 44 332 32 59....................................................... 

Angus Muirhead is a senior portfolio manager in the 

Thematic Equity team at Credit Suisse Asset Management. 

He joined the team in September 2016 and 

has 19 years of experience as an analyst and portfolio 

manager investing in the technology and healthcare 

sectors. He is currently responsible for the CS (Lux) 

Global Robotics Equity Fund, together with Dr. Patrick 

Kolb. Angus has a BA degree from Durham University 

in Modern Japanese Language and Business Studies, 

and is a CFA Charterholder. > Pages 17–19

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16C032A_R

Imprint 

Credit Suisse AG, Investment Solutions & Products, 

P.O. Box 300, CH-8070 Zurich 

Publisher 

Loris Centola 

Editors 

Reto Hess, Uwe Neumann, Christine Schmid 

Editorial deadline 

22 December 2016 

Production management 

Iryna Hofer, Manuel Moser 

Concept 

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Paris-born Vincent Poinas is a journalist, 

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For the top themes and trends 

driving markets in the year ahead, see our 

Investment Outlook 2017 at 

credit-suisse.com/investmentoutlook

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