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Solutions for a better world Global Investor, 01/2017 Credit Suisse
Solutions for a better world
Global Investor, 01/2017
Credit Suisse
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Global Investor 1.17, January 2017<br />
Expert know-how for Credit Suisse investment clients<br />
INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS & PRODUCTS<br />
<strong>Change</strong><br />
Solutions for a better world<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai Asimov was right: how robots can help to ensure<br />
a better future. Fabian Waltert Looking for a housing solution?<br />
Think small. No, smaller. Uwe Neumann The advent of digital farming.<br />
Henry Siu Redistribution between generations binds society together.
Important information and disclosures are found in the Disclosure appendix<br />
CS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.<br />
As a result, investors should be aware that CS may have a conflict of interest that<br />
could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only<br />
a single factor in making their investment decision. For a discussion of the risks<br />
of investing in the securities mentioned in this report, please refer to<br />
the following Internet link: https://research.credit-suisse.com/riskdisclosure.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —03<br />
Responsible for coordinating<br />
the focus themes in this issue<br />
CHRISTINE SCHMID is Head of Global<br />
Equity & Credit Research at Credit<br />
Suisse International Wealth Management.<br />
She has 23 years of experience and<br />
covers the financials sector. She holds an<br />
MA in Economics from the University<br />
of Zurich and is a CFA Charterholder.<br />
RETO HESS is a senior research<br />
analyst at Credit Suisse International<br />
Wealth Management with 12 years<br />
of experience in equity research and<br />
investment management. He heads the<br />
Global Equity Research team and<br />
covers the European and US industrials<br />
sector. Further, Reto is a CFA and<br />
CAIA Charterholder and holds a Master of<br />
Science from the University of Zurich,<br />
Switzerland.<br />
Photo: Steve Vidler / Alamy Stock Foto; Illustration: Martin Mörck<br />
UWE NEUMANN is a senior research<br />
analyst in the Global Equity & Credit<br />
Research team at Credit Suisse International<br />
Wealth Management, covering<br />
the telecom and technology sectors.<br />
He has 29 years of experience in the<br />
securities and banking business, holds<br />
a Master of Economics from the University<br />
of Constance, Germany, and is a CEFA<br />
Charterholder.<br />
The majority of citizens in today’s Western democracies are concerned,<br />
and even fearful, about the effects of globalization, digitization<br />
and a rapidly aging society. A desire for deglobalization and multipolarity<br />
and a determination to “put one’s own country first” have<br />
come into sharp focus. Well-educated white-collar workers – the<br />
middle class – see themselves at risk of losing their job as digitization<br />
progresses. Moreover, aging populations in most countries are likely<br />
to place an immense burden on healthcare, social and pension<br />
systems in the future. Global central banks’ very accommodative monetary<br />
policy has already weakened social and pension systems, putting<br />
pressure on future expected income.<br />
The prosperity that has been achieved since the middle of the last<br />
century is built on a generational contract which, given today’s challenges,<br />
needs to be redefined. Education for the young is still funded<br />
by the older generations, but the required skill set for today’s job market<br />
and that of the future will force us to rethink our education system<br />
to better align it with the changed environment. Pension systems<br />
and social systems were built on assumptions of infinite economic<br />
growth, but global resources are finite. Thus, the new generational<br />
contract must be based on the premise of ensuring a sustainable<br />
economy.<br />
These changes open up business opportunities for companies and<br />
sectors alike, with the economy serving as a solution provider, and<br />
policy makers pushing for a framework that allows everyone to prosper.<br />
Consumers drive success through demand and spending.<br />
A number of sectors are poised to deliver pioneering solutions for<br />
the future. Healthcare is at the dawn of a wave of innovation as advances<br />
in digital means allow for more efficient and tailor-made treatments.<br />
Data produced and used for the good of society can further<br />
improve our lives. Mobility 2.0 is on the horizon, and blockchain technology<br />
is set to revolutionize contracts and trade platforms by establishing<br />
a new environment of trust.<br />
This issue of GI features our thoughts and expectations regarding<br />
these developments. I hope you enjoy the read!<br />
Christine Schmid, Head of Global Equity & Credit Research
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —05<br />
Contents<br />
Global Investor 1.17<br />
Collages in this issue<br />
Map<br />
The world today is in<br />
rapid flux. Technology,<br />
demographics and<br />
globalization keep people<br />
and jobs on the move.<br />
This ferment is giving rise<br />
to new ideas and ways<br />
of thinking about how we<br />
live and work.<br />
06<br />
Prosperity is a two-way street<br />
Finding ways to evolve and improve the<br />
intergenerational contract is key to ensuring<br />
a cohesive society, writes Henry Siu.<br />
13<br />
When I’m sixty-four<br />
Economists Yikai Wang and Martin Eichler<br />
reflect on issues affecting the<br />
pension systems in China and Switzerland,<br />
respectively.<br />
17<br />
Cyborgs made for walking<br />
Don’t just focus on building robots, says<br />
roboticist Yoshiyuki Sankai. Instead,<br />
think about the problems you want to solve.<br />
21<br />
Reshaping patient care by bits<br />
The healthcare industry has traditionally<br />
been slow to embrace digital health, writes<br />
Lorenzo Biasio. This time, it’s different.<br />
25<br />
The Internet –<br />
our friend and caretaker<br />
Don’t let visions of Orwellian dystopias<br />
put you off connectivity, argues Uwe<br />
Neumann. The Internet has a caring side.<br />
29<br />
The dark side of digitization<br />
Cyber risk is the price you pay for an open<br />
cyber society. It also spells opportunity<br />
for the IT security industry. Ulrich Kaiser<br />
explains.<br />
31<br />
The age of cryptofinance<br />
Democracy is finally coming to finance<br />
in the shape of digital cash, says<br />
Johann Gevers of Monetas, and it will<br />
boost the global economy.<br />
35<br />
Putting a roof over your head<br />
Forget about your home being a castle.<br />
Fabian Waltert takes a look at housing<br />
trends, and discovers that sharing is the<br />
name of the game.<br />
41<br />
Labor in the new millennium<br />
In today’s job market, the right employee<br />
may well not meet your ideal profile, says<br />
Randstad CEO Jacques van den Broek.<br />
44<br />
Young and car-free<br />
Driving is losing its cachet among<br />
young people in industrialized countries.<br />
Julia Dumanskaya examines the<br />
reasons why.<br />
46<br />
Millennials drive sustainability<br />
Sustainability is a key concern for<br />
millennials, writes Julie Saussier, and it’s<br />
leading companies to adapt production<br />
processes.<br />
48<br />
Farmer CTOs<br />
The arrival of digital agriculture is<br />
thrusting farmers into the role of chief<br />
technology officers. Uwe Neumann<br />
surveys a surprising new landscape.<br />
Disclaimer > Page 52<br />
The six illustrations by Vincent Poinas<br />
creatively evoke some of the issues<br />
at the heart of the current conflicts between<br />
generations, including sustainability,<br />
pensions, healthcare, privacy and robotics.<br />
For more on the artist, see p. 54.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —06<br />
Photo: Kamil Bialous<br />
According to economist Henry Siu, the cohesiveness of society depends on its willingness to distribute resources among generations.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —07<br />
Prosperity<br />
is a<br />
two-way<br />
street<br />
Given the dramatic changes that population aging, globalization and technological<br />
progress have brought to society, there is renewed discussion on how the<br />
intergenerational contract should evolve and improve. By doing so, we reaffirm our<br />
belief in a cohesive society and the value of taking care of those most in need.<br />
TEXT HENRY SIU<br />
n intergenerational contract is an agreement made by<br />
society to transfer resources between individuals who<br />
are at different stages of life. In almost all instances, this<br />
takes the form of transfers from those of working age,<br />
to senior citizens (who have left the workforce) and the young (who<br />
have not yet entered it). Intergenerational contracts need not be codified<br />
by law, and in most times and places in the history of humanity,<br />
they have been informal in nature. Perhaps the most obvious example<br />
we see today is the multigenerational household. The parents provide<br />
income, food, and shelter, as well as their time and care to their children<br />
and their own parents, the grandparents. Grandparents benefit from<br />
these transfers and, in turn, help in the care of the children, utilizing<br />
the time and accumulated wisdom they have at their disposal. The<br />
children in the household receive transfers with no cost to their present<br />
selves (except, maybe having to clean their rooms and take out<br />
the garbage). However, the implicit understanding – the contract – is<br />
that they will provide the same transfers to their parents and children<br />
when they become working-aged themselves.<br />
Of course, intergenerational contracts also take more explicit<br />
forms, codified broadly as social security systems, administered >
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —08<br />
by governments in most countries around the world. Perhaps the<br />
most prominent example is that of state-funded pension programs,<br />
providing transfers and benefits to the retirement-aged. In industrialized<br />
economies, these programs have become increasingly burdened<br />
due to falling birthrates, increased life expectancy, and, in some<br />
cases, poor budgeting and underfunding. For instance, in the United<br />
States, the most recent Social Security Administration Trustees Report<br />
indicates that the program ran a USD 6 trillion deficit in 2016; that’s<br />
almost USD 20,000 for every man, woman and child living in the USA.<br />
“Human capital<br />
is the skill and<br />
knowledge upon<br />
which working-aged<br />
earnings are based.”<br />
Forecasting into the future and accounting for the present value of<br />
all future benefits and taxes, the system is currently USD 32 trillion<br />
in deficit. While presently in less dire circumstances, Switzerland is<br />
engaged in its Retirement 2020 reform to their state pension system.<br />
This is in anticipation of the rise in their dependency ratio. Currently<br />
there are about 30 people aged 65 and over drawing from the pension<br />
system for every one hundred 20–64-year-olds contributing to<br />
it; but by 2060, this figure will nearly double to about 55 taking out<br />
for every 100 paying in.<br />
Equally – if not more – important in the intergenerational contract<br />
is the transfers made to the young via publicly funded education and<br />
healthcare. These matter because education and health investments<br />
are the means by which societies create human capital. Human capital<br />
is the skill and knowledge upon which working-aged earnings are<br />
based, and is perhaps the prime determinant of the size of a society’s<br />
economic pie and social well-being. In certain places, these systems<br />
are failing to provide enough investment for the young.<br />
Redefining the contract<br />
Against this backdrop, and given the dramatic changes that globalization<br />
and technological progress have brought about, there is renewed<br />
discussion on how the intergenerational contract should evolve,<br />
what should be changed, and how it can be improved to better suit<br />
the 21st century. But informed discussion requires a fundamental understanding<br />
of its place in society. What role does it serve to transfer<br />
resources to and from people at different points in their life?<br />
Fundamentally, the intergenerational contract is about redistribution<br />
between generations. It makes sense for society to codify and<br />
administer this redistribution given that we feel that those who are in<br />
need deserve to have more, and those that have more can do with a<br />
bit less. So how should we conceptualize the intergenerational contract,<br />
so that we can evaluate whether such a contract is desirable,<br />
fair and working for the greater good of society?<br />
A useful way to understand the contract is as a form of social insurance<br />
across generations. Other forms of social insurance, like social<br />
assistance and welfare programs, do not depend on one’s stage in<br />
life. The desirability of insurance that crosses generations becomes<br />
obvious when we realize that many aspects of our working lives are<br />
like a giant game of roulette, except that the odds are actually stacked<br />
in our favor. Most of us will be relatively lucky and do just fine: we’ll<br />
have meaningful careers that pay well and steady work with few, short<br />
spells of unemployment. This will allow us to enjoy a comfortable life<br />
in retirement. But a small number of us will be unlucky during our<br />
working years and suffer the consequences of disability, stints of<br />
long-term unemployment, the loss of a vocation or the obsolescence<br />
of skill that we spent decades learning and investing in. These sorts<br />
of events lead to difficulties in old age.<br />
Social insurance for the elderly<br />
This is precisely the sort of negative outcome that social security is<br />
meant to guard against. In fact, in many countries, this objective is<br />
stated directly in the name of the program. In both the United States<br />
and Switzerland, the social security program is called (or translated<br />
as) Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance; in Germany, it is<br />
called the State Pension Insurance. Insurance programs are those<br />
that we pay into in good times and claim benefits from, if and when<br />
we are hit by negative shocks.<br />
But in the past 50 or 60 years, social security has evolved from<br />
insurance programs to largely become publicly funded pension or retirement<br />
benefit plans that all are entitled to draw from. But none of<br />
us feel entitled to draw upon our auto insurance on days when we<br />
don’t get in a car accident, or to draw unemployment benefits when<br />
we are working. Given this, why should we all receive old-age security<br />
simply because we are past the age of eligibility, especially those<br />
of us who have had the fortune of successful careers working in wellpaying<br />
jobs? Retirement saving is equally well performed by ourselves<br />
on an individual basis; it is unclear why it should be done by transferring<br />
income from one generation to the next. Therefore, an important<br />
question to be addressed is whether government-sponsored, old-age<br />
social security should be reserved for, and thereby made more generous<br />
to, those truly in need.<br />
This is made especially pressing given the dramatic labor market<br />
changes the global economy has experienced in the past 30 years.<br />
With advances in robotics, information and communication technology,<br />
and computing power, automation has made obsolete the accumulated<br />
skills of a wide swath of the population nearing retirement<br />
age. Advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence threaten<br />
to erode the value of knowledge and skills in which an ever-increasing<br />
number of highly educated workers have invested. Prioritization<br />
of old-age insurance should be given to those who have experienced<br />
these outcomes during their working careers. And because of the inherent<br />
uncertainty of longevity, it should also benefit those that have<br />
been unlucky enough to live longer than expected when they made<br />
their retirement savings decisions.<br />
Social insurance for the young<br />
To the extent that the outcome of one’s working career and end of<br />
life is a gamble, it is swamped by a much bigger risk factor determining<br />
lifetime well-being: the lottery of birth. This is a concept that has<br />
been discussed at least since the time of the 18th century by philosopher<br />
Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and in our times by the philosopher
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —09<br />
John Rawls and philanthropist Warren Buffett. The idea of course is<br />
simple: prior to birth, we have no choice as to whether we are born<br />
with ability or disability, into a rich family or poor one, or into a society<br />
that values basic human rights or not. A lottery determines whether<br />
we enter life into a circumstance of ability and opportunity, so the<br />
foundational building blocks of success and fortune are determined<br />
by pure luck.<br />
Viewed this way, it is decidedly compelling that the intergenerational<br />
contract should transfer resources to the young in order to provide<br />
insurance against poor early-life outcomes. The most important<br />
way we can do this is through fair and effective publicly funded education.<br />
Formal education systems can never fully undo all of the disadvantages<br />
that may befall someone at birth. However, public education<br />
should do its best to redistribute to those in need and help to<br />
even the playing field at life’s outset. At the very least, it should not<br />
magnify the unequal outcomes of the birth lottery. But in some places<br />
around the world this is what happens. Perhaps an instructive<br />
example is the United States where public education funding is determined<br />
disproportionately by the local tax base: spending is higher<br />
in rich suburbs and much lower in rural and inner-city settings. This<br />
magnifies inequality. In a 2015 report issued by the Education Law<br />
Center, only four states out of 50 (Minnesota, Massachusetts, New<br />
Jersey and Delaware) received a rating “fair.”<br />
“Fundamentally,<br />
the intergenerational<br />
contract is about<br />
redistribution<br />
between generations.”<br />
Of course, the USA is not alone. Every three years, the OECD conducts<br />
the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA),<br />
a survey intended to evaluate education systems worldwide. The most<br />
recent information (as of this writing) is available for 2012. According<br />
to the PISA, in countries as diverse as Turkey, the United Kingdom<br />
and Austria, student-teacher ratios are tilted in favor of socioeconomically<br />
advantaged schools compared with disadvantaged schools.<br />
This is in contrast to places like Belgium and the Netherlands where<br />
the student-teacher ratio is used to mitigate socioeconomic disadvantage.<br />
In this respect, lessons can be drawn from Germany’s recent experience.<br />
Between 2003 and 2012, Germany was successful in reducing<br />
inequality among students’ PISA test scores and simultaneously<br />
increasing average performance. While causality is hard to<br />
establish, many believe the gains were in large part achieved by providing<br />
school-based support and targeting the most disadvantaged<br />
students, oftentimes immigrants and the children of immigrants. This<br />
targeting of benefits is precisely in the spirit of redistributing to those<br />
most in need, those disadvantaged by being born in places and ><br />
Henry Siu<br />
is an associate professor in the<br />
Vancouver School of Economics at<br />
the University of British Columbia.<br />
His research focuses on issues<br />
related to labor and macroeconomics<br />
such as automation and the decline<br />
of middle-class jobs, recessions<br />
and jobless recoveries, and youth<br />
unemployment.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —10<br />
Photo: Vorname Name/Agentur
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —11<br />
“The climate deficit the global<br />
community is running on a perpetual<br />
basis is simply stripping resources<br />
from our children and grandchildren<br />
for our own benefit.”<br />
circumstances lacking for opportunity. This principal of inclusiveness<br />
is also fundamental to providing fair educational opportunities at the<br />
university level. Initiatives such as the Erasmus programe of the European<br />
Union and the establishment of uniform tuition fees for EU<br />
students fosters equality of access to human capital investment and<br />
generates mobility across borders within a cohesive society. If not for<br />
social insurance motives, these objectives are valuable and worthy in<br />
their own right.<br />
Social insurance for current and future generations<br />
Finally, an integral part of an evolved intergenerational contract must<br />
include action on climate change. Though much of this discussion<br />
has centered on redistribution for insurance purposes from the lucky<br />
to unlucky, a more basic priority should be fairness across generations.<br />
Accumulating unfunded social security liabilities, coupled with<br />
political inaction is, quite simply, a transfer from future generations<br />
to current and past ones, without regard for need or disadvantage. In<br />
the same way, the climate deficit the global community is running on<br />
a perpetual basis is simply stripping resources from our children and<br />
grandchildren for our own benefit. This violates the basic proposition<br />
that the intergenerational contract should not be benefiting the welloff.<br />
As policy makers we have the tools to curb greenhouse gas emissions.<br />
At a minimum, greenhouse gas-emitting activities should be<br />
taxed. This provides incentives for reducing such harmful activities<br />
and developing more socially responsible energy sources. An even<br />
more equitable solution would be to redistribute these tax receipts to<br />
future generations, transferring resources in the right direction.<br />
Moving forward, our intergenerational contract should evolve to ensure<br />
transfers are made to those who need it most, including our<br />
seniors, our children and future generations who have and will face<br />
misfortune. Prioritizing those in need helps ensure the long-term sustainability<br />
of our social insurance programs and our societies.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —12<br />
><br />
Photo: Vorname Name/Agentur
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —13<br />
Photo: Sigrid Bjorbekkmo<br />
Pensions<br />
When I’m<br />
sixty-four<br />
Old-age pensions are an entitlement in many countries around the<br />
world. But aging populations make it more difficult to finance<br />
these systems. We look at solutions to the pension question in<br />
two very different countries: China and Switzerland.<br />
INTERVIEW BY GISELLE WEISS, freelance writer<br />
Yikai Wang<br />
is an assistant professor in the<br />
Department of Economics at the University<br />
of Oslo, specializing in quantitative<br />
macroeconomics and the Chinese<br />
economy. He received his PhD in Economics<br />
from the University of Zurich in<br />
2014. From 2011 to 2012, he was a<br />
visiting scholar at the Massachusetts<br />
Institute of Technology.<br />
Even in industrialized countries,<br />
guaranteeing pensions is no<br />
easy matter. China is a devel oping<br />
country with a huge and rapidly<br />
aging population. How is it addressing<br />
the issue of retirement income?<br />
Giselle Weiss: Do the Chinese think<br />
in terms of baby boomers and millennials<br />
and so forth?<br />
Yikai Wang Actually, my generation is<br />
known as the “after 1980s.” Because we<br />
were born after the market reform, we never<br />
lived in a planned economy. And we were<br />
the first generation to really be restricted by<br />
the one-child policy, which became quite<br />
tight after the 1980s. We had cousins to<br />
play with, not siblings. So we think a little<br />
differently from previous generations.<br />
In 2012, you and your colleagues wrote<br />
a paper on Chinese pension problems that<br />
got picked up by the “Economist” magazine.<br />
What was that about?<br />
Yikai Wang We were interested in<br />
two questions. First, the replacement rate<br />
for Chinese retirees – the percentage<br />
of pre-retirement income that is paid out as<br />
pension – is quite high. How sustainable<br />
is the current pension system? And, second,<br />
because Chinese incomes have been<br />
growing very fast, older generations are<br />
poorer than future generations will be. What<br />
amount of intergenerational transfer – i.e.,<br />
using the contributions of younger workers to<br />
fund current retirees – will improve the<br />
welfare of the older generations without<br />
hurting future younger generations?<br />
Very-fast-growing income sounds like a<br />
good thing.<br />
Yikai Wang For the older generations,<br />
though, it isn’t necessarily. Take someone<br />
who entered the Chinese labor market in<br />
1970 and someone who entered it in 2000.<br />
During those 30 years, wages grew at 6%<br />
per year on average. Which means that a<br />
person who entered the market in 2000 can<br />
expect to earn six times as much as the<br />
person who entered the market in 1970.<br />
Moreover, traditionally, most older<br />
generations just put their money in a bank,<br />
and they had little to begin with.<br />
What percentage of the population<br />
in China can expect a pension?<br />
Yikai Wang Broadly speaking, only<br />
urban workers are covered by the pension<br />
system, and of those workers, only 60%<br />
participate. The system isn’t compulsory.<br />
There’s basically no pensions in the rural<br />
areas, which since the end of the planned<br />
economy in 1978 have officially been<br />
responsible for taking care of themselves.<br />
What do old people in the rural areas do?<br />
Yikai Wang They rely primarily on<br />
support from their children, who work in<br />
urban areas. We actually wrote a follow-up<br />
to our paper in which we hypothesized how<br />
a universal pension system that includes<br />
the rural areas might not be a major burden<br />
because worker income there is so low.<br />
What makes the pension<br />
situation in China so acute?<br />
Yikai Wang The Chinese population is<br />
aging very, very fast. For example, right<br />
now, the old-age dependency ratio – the ratio<br />
of old to young – is a bit more than 0.1.<br />
It will take China only 40 years, say until<br />
around 2055, for the old-age dependency<br />
ratio to increase to 0.5. That means one<br />
senior for every two working-age persons in<br />
China. And that’s if you compare the over-<br />
65 population with the under-65 population.<br />
A second factor is that there is a huge<br />
movement of young people to the cities.<br />
That slows down the aging problem in the<br />
urban areas, but it aggravates it in the countryside.<br />
By one measure that we used,<br />
there will be 1.6 seniors for each workingage<br />
person in rural China by 2050.<br />
If the government is worried about<br />
the sustainability of the pension system,<br />
wouldn’t it make more sense for the<br />
system to be mandatory?<br />
>
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —14<br />
“Broadly speaking, only urban workers<br />
are covered by the pension system,<br />
and of those workers, only 60% participate.”<br />
Yikai Wang<br />
Yikai Wang To do that, you have to first<br />
be able to check and enforce contributions,<br />
which isn’t easy in developing countries with<br />
large populations. Moreover, China has<br />
many small firms and self-employed workers,<br />
which makes collecting pension contributions<br />
even harder. Second, the timing has<br />
to be right. For example, the US introduced<br />
social security after the Great Depression.<br />
Many European countries set up their<br />
systems after World War II. In the current<br />
climate in China, a law mandating pensions<br />
would be unlikely to pass.<br />
So how do you increase voluntary<br />
participation in the system?<br />
Yikai Wang One reason many private<br />
workers do not participate is because their<br />
employers don’t want to (workers contribute<br />
8% to the system, and employers 20%).<br />
Employers would rather pay workers extra<br />
than contribute to the pension system.<br />
Here, economic incentives might help, as<br />
would making the system a little more<br />
compulsory. Right now, the discussion is<br />
tending toward changing the form of the<br />
pension system itself.<br />
You and your colleagues have proposed<br />
a different recommendation for funding the<br />
pension system than the government has.<br />
Yikai Wang Yes. Because the government<br />
is focusing on the financial sustainability<br />
of the system, it wants to move to a<br />
system in which there is little intergenerational<br />
transfer and everyone relies on their<br />
own contributions. But we think that keeping<br />
an element of intergenerational transfer –<br />
similar to the current pay-as-you-go system<br />
in most continental European and Scandinavian<br />
countries – is important. This would<br />
ensure that the current old persons will<br />
receive a decent pension.<br />
And the sustainability issue?<br />
Yikai Wang It can be solved using other<br />
measures. For example, extending the<br />
retirement age, which at present is still 60<br />
for men and 50 for women. Or reducing the<br />
replacement rate for future generations,<br />
since they will be richer overall.<br />
Among Western industrialized countries,<br />
Switzerland stands out as a model of prosperity<br />
and innovation. But the challenges to the pension<br />
system that it faces are typical.<br />
Giselle Weiss: In 2012, BAK Basel projected in a report to the Swiss<br />
Federal Department of Home Affairs that the old-age dependency<br />
ratio in Switzerland would increase from 29% (at the time of<br />
the report) to 56% by 2060. What is the significance of that figure?<br />
Martin Eichler The old-age dependency ratio tells you how<br />
many working-age people are available to finance one retired<br />
person. This ratio will increase substantially over the next 20 or 30<br />
years: more retirees and fewer people to finance them than<br />
today. And that’s only the financial side. There are also political and<br />
societal consequences of the growing weight of pensioners.<br />
How does Switzerland’s old-age dependency ratio compare with<br />
those of other countries?<br />
Martin Eichler Switzerland is fairly typical of modern Western<br />
industrial economies. The number of retirees is projected to increase<br />
substantially in all these economies. Within Western Europe,<br />
Switzerland is actually slightly better positioned than most countries<br />
today – particularly due to immigration. And we expect that to<br />
continue in the future.<br />
How would you characterize the state of the Swiss pension system?<br />
Martin Eichler The Swiss system is based on three pillars<br />
for stability. Each pillar has advantages and disadvantages. The payas-you-go<br />
part of the system – the AHV – is vulnerable to unbalanced<br />
population developments. The second pillar (BVG), which is a<br />
capital-based system, is less vulnerable to these changes. However,<br />
it is susceptible to financial market fluctuations, which we are seeing<br />
at present. As the time horizon of a pension system is 60 years<br />
or more, you can see how having a mix of pillars is well suited to a<br />
range of eventualities.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —15<br />
What are the main challenges to<br />
the system?<br />
Martin Eichler Apart from the stress on<br />
the financial markets in the short term, the<br />
main challenge at the moment is a convergence<br />
of three different factors. The first<br />
is baby boomers, who are now approaching<br />
retirement. The burden they represent is<br />
temporary (although it will last for about 30<br />
years), but it’s substantial. And it’s particularly<br />
hard for the AHV system, the payas-you-go<br />
part. Initially, the baby boomers<br />
put more money into the system than they<br />
took out, which actually was a double-edged<br />
sword in the sense that it masked other<br />
challenges to the system.<br />
Such as …?<br />
Martin Eichler Despite Switzerland’s<br />
high level of immigration, we are facing a<br />
declining population. At the moment, the<br />
population is still rising, but at a fast dropping<br />
rate. Our birthrate is substantially<br />
below the 2.1 children needed to maintain<br />
the size of the population. Already in the<br />
medium term, all the projections point to a<br />
declining population. It may take 10 or<br />
15 more years, depending on migration, until<br />
we reach the tipping point. But it will certainly<br />
happen. To illustrate the problem:<br />
according to a back-of-the-envelope calculation,<br />
it would take about 100,000 additional<br />
net migrants every year of 20-year-old people<br />
to keep the old-age dependency ratio stable.<br />
That would be politically impossible,<br />
wouldn’t it?<br />
Martin Eichler Yes. It means more than<br />
doubling net migration every year. It’s also<br />
very difficult to attract that many people.<br />
Remember that other countries around us<br />
are also facing declining populations as well.<br />
In any event, it’s not a solution. Migration<br />
can help, but it’s not enough to solve the<br />
problem.<br />
And the third challenge?<br />
Martin Eichler Increasing life expectancy.<br />
Not only are we getting older, we’re<br />
also healthier and stronger. That’s great,<br />
but it puts pressure on the pension system<br />
in that pensions are paid out for longer.<br />
What role does the low-interest-rate<br />
environment play in the challenges to the<br />
pension system?<br />
Martin Eichler It’s difficult, of course,<br />
especially for the capital-based pillar.<br />
But we see that as a temporary effect. It<br />
might well last for another few years;<br />
however, we do expect the situation to<br />
normalize at some point.<br />
Martin Eichler<br />
is chief economist and member of the<br />
board of directors of BAK Basel<br />
Economics AG. He heads up BAK Basel’s<br />
analysis and forecasting, and consults<br />
both within Switzerland and abroad.<br />
He studied Economics at the University<br />
of Constance, Germany, and at the<br />
University of Western Ontario, Canada.<br />
“Particularly for millennials<br />
and other younger<br />
generations, the question<br />
is how long we wait to<br />
react. The longer we wait,<br />
the harder it will hit!”<br />
Martin Eichler<br />
So what is to be done?<br />
Martin Eichler Particularly for millennials<br />
and other younger generations,<br />
the question is how long we wait to react.<br />
The longer we wait, the harder it will hit! We<br />
do need migration to cover some of the<br />
stress in the system, and higher contributions<br />
to social security are inevitable. Furthermore,<br />
I believe that at some point we will have to<br />
increase the pension age in Switzerland. With<br />
a mix of actions the system can be saved<br />
if we – including the citizens, who will have to<br />
vote on it – want to save it.<br />
What impact do you expect the<br />
changing nature of work to have on<br />
the pension system?<br />
Martin Eichler With less stable kinds of<br />
employment, longer periods of education<br />
or self-employment for example, we probably<br />
need more flexibility, especially with<br />
the employer-backed second pillar. We need<br />
to ensure that different parts of a working<br />
life add up to a substantial pension without<br />
too many holes. But that doesn’t require<br />
a completely new system. I’m convinced that<br />
it can be achieved.<br />
Additional<br />
details<br />
on our map
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —16
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —17<br />
Robotics<br />
Cyborgs made<br />
for walking<br />
Dr. Yoshiyuki Sankai, the founder and CEO of Japanese robotics company CYBERDYNE,<br />
talked to Angus Muirhead, Senior Fund Manager for the Credit Suisse (Lux) Global Robotics Equity<br />
Fund, about robotics, their medical robot suit “HAL” and his vision of an automated future.<br />
INTERVIEW BY ANGUS MUIRHEAD, Credit Suisse<br />
Angus Muirhead: Where did your journey<br />
into robotics start? What first inspired you?<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai In third grade, my fate<br />
was decided when my mother bought me<br />
the science fiction novel “I, ROBOT” by<br />
Isaac Asimov. From that point on I decided<br />
in my heart that I wanted to invent things<br />
that would bring people great happiness.<br />
In the novel, Asimov talks about three laws<br />
of robotics, the first of which made a great<br />
impression on me: “Robots must not hurt<br />
human beings.” So all through my childhood,<br />
I dreamed of science and robotics and began<br />
creating my own experiments. In my<br />
school graduation paper titled “ 夢 ” (“yume” =<br />
dream), I wrote: “When I grow up I want to<br />
be a scientist and I want to invent and build<br />
a robot in my lab.”<br />
Tell me a little bit about your medical-use<br />
robot “HAL”<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai Well, HAL is the<br />
world’s first therapeutic robotic device to<br />
be covered by public health insurance. It is<br />
designed as a robot suit to be worn by<br />
people who are unable to move freely due<br />
to disease or aging, to help them to<br />
walk and assist in therapeutic treatment. Our<br />
technology enables the system to pick up<br />
the neural signals sent from the brain down<br />
to the lower limbs and to respond mechani-<br />
cally as the leg muscles should do. There<br />
are other use cases for HAL, but this<br />
medical use case is our most commercially<br />
advanced application.<br />
And what makes HAL different to similar<br />
systems being developed?<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai HAL is unique in that<br />
it is the only robot in the world to be approved<br />
for therapeutic medical use. In other<br />
systems, when the exoskeleton moves,<br />
it simply pulls or carries the patient’s limbs<br />
with it, without direct interaction with the<br />
patients’ nervous system. In HAL’s case,<br />
the movement is initiated directly by signals<br />
from the human brain and the resulting motion<br />
is fed back to the brain via the nervous<br />
system. By reconnecting this continuous<br />
feedback loop, there is evidence to suggest<br />
that patients are starting to experience<br />
therapeutic benefit.<br />
So the HAL system is now approved in<br />
Japan and the EU?<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai Yes. Already ten<br />
years ago, back in 2006, we started clinical<br />
research to prepare for the commercialization<br />
of the prototype HAL as a medical therapeutic<br />
device for the Japanese market.<br />
Then we leased HAL systems to a number<br />
of hospitals and clinics and, using the data<br />
gathered from these real-world patient tests,<br />
we received approval for use as a medical<br />
device in November 2015. Then, in September<br />
2016, the first commercial healthcare<br />
medical treatments using HAL finally started.<br />
In the process of getting HAL approved<br />
as a medical device in Japan and the EU,<br />
we formulated a number of rules for the<br />
definition and use of medical robots.<br />
We have now established a number of ISOapproved<br />
standards.<br />
Since you first introduced HAL almost a<br />
decade ago, the level of sophistication<br />
has increased tremendously. What<br />
technology changes in the last few years<br />
have enabled these rapid advances?<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai In the first decade,<br />
the HAL system was a development project<br />
at the University of Tsukuba. Then, since<br />
2004 when we founded CYBERDYNE,<br />
we have taken HAL through an extremely<br />
advanced and innovative development<br />
process to arrive at the robotic therapeutic<br />
treatment device we have today.<br />
What are the key technology challenges you<br />
face today in developing robotics?<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai There is a long way to<br />
go before the technology that might allow<br />
people and robots and digital data to function<br />
seamlessly together becomes accessible<br />
and applicable to more areas of our >
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —18<br />
“The future will be shaped<br />
by what kind of technologies<br />
are developed.”<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai<br />
is CEO and founder of robotics company<br />
CYBERDYNE Inc. He is Professor at the<br />
Institute of Systems and Engineering at<br />
Tsukuba University and visiting Professor<br />
of Baylor College of Medicine, Texas.<br />
He has won a number of awards including<br />
the World Technology Award and<br />
Entrepreneur of the Year Award Japan.<br />
daily lives. I think focusing on developing<br />
robots is the wrong starting point. The<br />
focal point should be to think about what<br />
problems we face and what we need to<br />
do to solve specific problems or provide a<br />
specific benefit. With this goal, I believe<br />
CYBERDYNE has already successfully<br />
pushed into an area of technology that no<br />
one else has really touched, and we feel<br />
compelled to follow the course further, even<br />
if it takes us into areas where we currently<br />
have little expertise.<br />
What do you imagine will be achievable in<br />
robotics in the future?<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai CYBERDYNE will<br />
continue to focus on the use of robotics<br />
beyond traditional industrial robots, in areas<br />
such as lifestyle, healthcare, entertainment,<br />
education and communications. As well<br />
as the therapeutic uses, there are also other<br />
applications of the HAL technology, such<br />
as HAL used by able-bodied people in nursing<br />
homes and on construction sites or in<br />
logistics to enable them to lift heavy objects<br />
or to carry patients from their bed to the<br />
bathroom, for example. Today, you will also<br />
find some of our other robots equipped<br />
with artificial intelligence at Tokyo’s Haneda<br />
Airport being used for cleaning and transport<br />
and logistics.<br />
And how do you think society will benefit<br />
from the advances in robotics?<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai Robots equipped with<br />
artificial intelligence could become hugely<br />
valuable to our society, as we are living<br />
longer, but at the same time are seeing a<br />
fairly low birthrate. For example, we might<br />
well have robots do our shopping. Furthermore,<br />
it’s also conceivable that there might<br />
be various other robots for the elderly or<br />
infirm to improve mobility, to help people<br />
to wash and bathe and to stay in touch with<br />
relatives and caregivers. In fact, a new<br />
concept which I am developing is to build a<br />
“Cybernic City” incorporating all these<br />
robotic technologies. With this goal in mind,<br />
we have acquired a large piece of land<br />
in Tsukuba City near CYBERDYNE’s headquarters<br />
and are cooperating and developing<br />
partnerships with a large number of<br />
companies and organizations.<br />
Several technologists have voiced concerns<br />
about the risks of developing powerful<br />
artificial intelligence. Do you think these<br />
concerns are warranted?<br />
Yoshiyuki Sankai In the future, it will be<br />
extremely important that we focus on the<br />
human perspective and the ethics of society.<br />
The future will be shaped by what kind of<br />
technologies are developed and how they<br />
are used, and that is why it’s important<br />
to design technology that offers benefits to<br />
society and with the vision of a better<br />
future in mind.<br />
Additional<br />
details<br />
on our map
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —19<br />
What’s HAL?<br />
HAL (Hybrid Assistive Limb) is the world’s first cyborg-type robot which enables the fusion of “man” with “machine” and “information.”<br />
When a person wears HAL, the system assists, supports and even augments their physical movement, and over time may accelerate and repair a patient’s<br />
damaged cerebral nerves. Source: CYBERDYNE<br />
01 THINK<br />
02 SEND<br />
03 READ<br />
04 MOVE<br />
05 LEARN<br />
First of all, think<br />
“I want to walk!”<br />
When a person<br />
moves the body, he<br />
or she first thinks<br />
about the motions in<br />
his or her brain.<br />
By thinking “I want<br />
to walk,” the brain<br />
transmits necessary<br />
signals to muscles<br />
necessary for<br />
the motions through<br />
nerves.<br />
Receiving the signals,<br />
muscles move.<br />
In the healthy body,<br />
each muscle is able<br />
to receive signals<br />
destined from the<br />
brain to it and move<br />
as strongly and fast<br />
as intended.<br />
HAL reads signals.<br />
Signals sent to<br />
muscles by the brain<br />
leak on the skin<br />
surface as very faint<br />
signals, so called<br />
“bio-electric signals<br />
(BES).” HAL is able<br />
to read BESs by only<br />
attaching the originally<br />
developed<br />
detectors on the surface<br />
on the wearer’s<br />
skin. By consolidating<br />
various information,<br />
HAL recognizes<br />
what sorts of<br />
motions the wearer<br />
intends.<br />
HAL moves as the<br />
wearer intends.<br />
HAL, in accordance<br />
with the recognized<br />
motions, controls<br />
its power units. This<br />
function enables<br />
HAL to assist the<br />
wearer’s motions as<br />
he or she intends<br />
and exerts bigger<br />
power than he or she<br />
ordinarily exerts.<br />
The brain learns<br />
motion. The mechanism<br />
to move the<br />
human body does not<br />
end up with only moving<br />
muscles. The brain<br />
confirms how the body<br />
moved on what sort<br />
of signals. When HAL<br />
has appropriately assisted<br />
the motions<br />
of walking, the feeling<br />
“I could walk!” is fed<br />
back to the brain.<br />
By this means, the<br />
brain becomes able to<br />
learn the way to emit<br />
necessary signals<br />
for walking gradually.<br />
This leads to the<br />
important first step<br />
in walking of the<br />
physically challenged<br />
person without being<br />
assisted by HAL. The<br />
only robot that can<br />
provide appropriate<br />
solutions for motions<br />
to the brain is HAL.<br />
Illustration: CYBERDYNE, The Noun Project
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —21<br />
Digital health<br />
Reshaping<br />
patient<br />
care by bits<br />
In most of the developed world and increasingly<br />
in emerging markets, healthcare costs are on<br />
a steep upward trajectory. Not only do societies<br />
spend more as they get wealthier, they also<br />
spend more as healthcare moves up on people’s<br />
priority list. In the quest to optimize patient<br />
outcomes and healthcare expenditure, digital<br />
health opportunities play a vital role.<br />
TEXT LORENZO BIASIO, Credit Suisse<br />
Digitization has become a staple of our lives and daily routines<br />
in areas such as news consumption or shopping and<br />
it is also making inroads into health management. With<br />
new tools at their disposal, people are increasingly assuming<br />
responsibility for their health and well-being as well as disease<br />
management. At the same time, insurance companies are eager to<br />
get patient data to price risk. Furthermore, care providers are innovating<br />
and using digital tools to drive better patient outcomes.<br />
Traditionally, the healthcare industry is slow to embrace change,<br />
but to us, this time feels different. With the emergence of remote patient<br />
monitoring solutions, telehealth offerings and the fact that health<br />
education and health management portals are gaining traction, digital<br />
health is visibly reshaping the current standard of care.<br />
Remote monitoring stands out<br />
When looking at the wide range of what digital health encompasses,<br />
remote monitoring strikes us as the area that provides the highest<br />
value added given its utility in managing chronic diseases. Considering<br />
that an estimated one-third of total US healthcare spending goes<br />
toward the management of chronic diseases, the savings potential<br />
that remote monitoring offers becomes evident.<br />
A case in point is the solution Vivify Health provides for patients<br />
with heart failure, a condition that costs the US healthcare system<br />
almost USD 40 billion annually. Almost half of this expenditure is attributable<br />
to inpatient stays, which are costly compared to daily per-patient<br />
costs of just several dollars for stable patients. Vivify’s solution<br />
comprises a tablet (incl. software), two diagnostic devices, plus a<br />
scale. These tools allow doctors and nurses to assess the patient<br />
continuously and detect alarming signs and worsening trends between<br />
regularly scheduled visits. Furthermore, they can even reduce the<br />
number of necessary inpatient visits – in Vivify’s pilot, from over >
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —22<br />
three monthly visits to fewer than 0.4. Moreover, the tools reduced<br />
very costly emergency room visits by over 70%.<br />
Health advice traveling the distance<br />
Another digital health solution is to provide medical advice at a distance.<br />
In Switzerland, health insurers have long been employing insurance<br />
models that require patients to seek telephone assistance<br />
from an insurance-designated general practitioner. Under such a<br />
model, through the triage of patients by a healthcare professional,<br />
patients can be channeled to the appropriate care setting, eliminating<br />
redundancies in the system and driving savings for the insurer.<br />
Such ideas can be taken much further still. Doctor On Demand,<br />
a USA-based service, provides a showcase of what could become<br />
much more widespread in future. Using any device, the service allows<br />
patients to get counseling from a specialist for most medical and also<br />
some mental conditions. If we assume that such a service is applicable<br />
to about a third of all physician visits at a stated price point of<br />
USD 49 and, as has been reported, that the average person visits<br />
their physician about three times a year at a current all-in price per visit<br />
of USD 150, the theoretical savings amount to over USD 30 billion.<br />
As such services are rolled out in the emerging markets, healthcare<br />
provisioning can change profoundly. Immobile patients as well<br />
as remote areas should benefit dramatically from such offerings as<br />
virtual physician consultations become possible.<br />
Powerful innovation enables self-management<br />
Advances in information technology are also changing medical sensors,<br />
enabling them to shrink in size and become more versatile. One<br />
technology unthinkable without recent advancements in sensor technology<br />
stands out in terms of impact on patients’ quality of life: CGM,<br />
short for continuous glucose monitoring. With the use of extendedwear<br />
(multiple days) CGM sensors connected to a dedicated receiver<br />
or smartphone, diabetic patients can monitor their blood glucose levels<br />
continuously. The significant CGM benefit is that it allows patients<br />
to identify potentially dangerous episodes that they may miss with<br />
traditional one-off measurements using capillary-drawn blood. By involving<br />
a smart device in CGM, patient-specific alert levels as well as<br />
rules for automated notifications based on glucose readings can be<br />
preset (to parents, for instance). Given the magnitude of this innovation,<br />
it is no surprise to read that the technology is reported to have<br />
saved lives. If, as one major medical expenditure survey shows, slightly<br />
less than 20% of diabetes expenditure attributable to emergency<br />
room visits and inpatient stays – which could be, at least partially,<br />
avoided using CGM – the savings potential amounts to more than<br />
USD 10 billion.<br />
Looking ahead, we believe that it is only a matter of time until an<br />
artificial pancreas, that is, a CGM system connected to an insulin<br />
pump, will come to market. There are still some technological challenges<br />
and regulatory hurdles to be overcome, but we are steadily<br />
nearing the emergence of such an artificial pancreas, termed by many<br />
as the “holy grail of insulin therapy.”<br />
Venture funding of digital health companies<br />
In 2015, venture funding of digital health companies amounted to<br />
USD 4.5 billion, or 7% of total venture funding. Although<br />
deal volume was relatively flat, late-stage deals were up 23%.<br />
Source: Rock Health, Digital Health Funding: 2015 — Year in Review<br />
USD bn<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
WebMD use on the rise<br />
WebMD user statistics show a steady increase since the inception of<br />
the service. Today, more than 200 million unique users visit the Web site<br />
every month, to access health, nutritional and wellness information.<br />
Source: WebMD<br />
Users in m<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
Average monthly<br />
unique users<br />
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
Health literacy is not universally positive<br />
With the advent of health information Web sites like WebMD and services<br />
such as 23andMe (a personal genomics company), people are<br />
increasingly given digital tools that promote health literacy. While we<br />
do believe that health literacy should be an aspiration of every modern<br />
society and, ideally, increasing health literacy should lead to >
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —24<br />
To explore<br />
health issues in<br />
greater depth,<br />
see the foldout map.<br />
“Traditionally, the healthcare industry<br />
is slow to embrace change, but to us, this<br />
time feels different. With the emergence<br />
of new tools, digital health is visibly<br />
reshaping the current standard of care.”<br />
Lorenzo Biasio<br />
more informed conversations with physicians, our assessment of the<br />
current developments is mixed. Our conversations with physicians<br />
point to some undesirable developments: with the increasingly widespread<br />
availability of health information, it is not uncommon for patients<br />
to arrive at the doctor’s with a set idea about their diagnosis<br />
and even wishes for specific kinds of treatment. Such behavior may<br />
require lengthy explanations from doctors, but there are bigger risks<br />
such as possibly unnecessary diagnostic testing and potentially dangerous<br />
self-medication.<br />
This is not to say that the health information on offer is flawed.<br />
Offerings aimed at improving health literacy are useful – we simply<br />
believe they should be focused on the prophylactic setting, for instance<br />
giving wellness and nutritional tips. When it comes to more<br />
severe diseases, we believe that health information should be accessed<br />
with the guidance of a healthcare professional – a view supported<br />
by the fact that early 23andMe products were banned from<br />
the market by the US Food and Drug Administration, which found the<br />
information to be prone to misinterpretation.<br />
ingly stretched healthcare systems. When used properly, we are optimistic<br />
that digital health solutions can produce winners along the<br />
healthcare value chain – patients, physicians, caretakers, hospitals<br />
and insurance companies. However, in order to succeed, it will be<br />
paramount for digital solutions to be properly and carefully balanced<br />
with tangible and empathic expert advice from an actual physician.<br />
Digital health – a new era<br />
We do believe that we are at the dawn of a new era with regard to<br />
digital healthcare services. Digital health solutions undeniably create<br />
large efficiency gains and convenience advantages across the entire<br />
healthcare value chain. Thus, digital health solutions are key enablers<br />
to drive substantial system-wide savings that benefit today’s increas-<br />
Lorenzo Biasio<br />
Equity Analyst Healthcare<br />
+41 44 333 14 79<br />
lorenzo.biasio@credit-suisse.com
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —25<br />
Connectivity<br />
The Internet – our<br />
friend and caretaker<br />
The Internet continues to expand. Data collection, management and analysis are growing<br />
exponentially. Many people fear this development, viewing it as an Orwellian risk. However,<br />
the Internet and the Internet of Things also offer ways to find solutions for a better world.<br />
BUILDINGS<br />
IT &<br />
NETWORKS<br />
SECURITY /<br />
PUBLIC SAFETY<br />
RETAIL<br />
ENERGY<br />
INDUSTRIAL<br />
CONSUMER<br />
& HOME<br />
HEALTHCARE<br />
& LIFE SCIENCE<br />
TRANS-<br />
PORTATION<br />
PORTATION<br />
Illustration: The Noun Project<br />
Digitization is spreading into our daily life<br />
The expanding Internet offers the capability to solve not only complex problems, it also can help us to make our world more healthy, efficient,<br />
mindful and secure. Source: Beecham Research Ltd.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —26<br />
The title “Ask Mom” is often used for<br />
how-to books that provide tips on<br />
how to treat a cut, how to prepare or<br />
store food or how to remove a stain<br />
from a shirt. In the past, such knowledge was<br />
passed on from generation to generation by<br />
word of mouth. Later on it was written down<br />
and printed in book form. In modern times,<br />
the same information can be accessed and<br />
read on mobile devices or personal computers.<br />
The technological progress achieved<br />
through digitization makes it easier than ever<br />
to save data and ensures that information is<br />
no longer lost. The expansion of the Internet<br />
to mobile devices and to things has led to a<br />
massive increase in data and digital communication.<br />
300 billion tweets have been sent<br />
since Twitter came into being, and every second,<br />
5,000 new ones are added. Whether<br />
one disseminates digital communications or<br />
censors or processes data, it is vital to identify<br />
the best way to read and manage such<br />
data.<br />
Creating a global conscience<br />
“‘Caring’ smart objects<br />
put people and their<br />
needs at the center of<br />
their services.”<br />
Uwe Neumann<br />
This technology has given rise to a ubiquitous,<br />
all-encompassing communications system<br />
that is self-sufficient and can also provide extensive<br />
benefits to others. Not only does it<br />
grant access to a wide range of knowledge,<br />
it also establishes a platform for creating a<br />
global conscience, as information, opinions<br />
and assessments from around the world become<br />
more transparent and accessible. The<br />
insights gained from social networks could<br />
increasingly contribute to a common awareness<br />
and acceptance of how to make the<br />
world a better place. Politicians and other decision-makers<br />
are well advised to employ the<br />
growing global bank of knowledge for the<br />
good of society and not let it morph into a<br />
kind of big-brother-is-watching-you society.<br />
As online activity is continuously monitored<br />
and measured, there is the inherent danger<br />
of users being monitored and punished for<br />
voicing their views and opinions, etc. At the<br />
same time, however, transparent near-time<br />
user feedback in response to, say, political<br />
events, driven by a regional, or even global,<br />
conscience, can also paint a more accurate<br />
picture of the mood in society and can help<br />
lead to change. A case in point – companies<br />
such as BrandsEye or MogIA, which used<br />
data from social media such as Google, Facebook<br />
and Twitter, successfully predicted the<br />
outcome of the US election, while traditional<br />
polls got the result wrong.<br />
Internet-connected devices look after you<br />
Apart from the Internet’s ability to “care” for<br />
users, there has also been strong growth in<br />
new markets that provide “caring” objects, i.e.,<br />
smart objects that put people and their needs<br />
at the center of their services. If asked what<br />
a caretaker should provide, most people<br />
would probably say they should care for our<br />
physical health and mental well-being as well<br />
as our safety and security. Moreover, a caretaker<br />
should manage communication within<br />
the family.<br />
New devices such as Google Home and<br />
Google Assistant could one day become our<br />
new friend and caretaker who looks after the<br />
family. These devices are connected to the<br />
Internet, have a camera, an invisible microphone<br />
with intelligent speech recognition and<br />
loudspeakers. They can tell you where your<br />
keys are (provided they are also connected);<br />
they can answer children’s questions by accessing<br />
the Internet; and they can start playing<br />
your favorite morning music upon request.<br />
Other companies such as Amazon with its<br />
Echo device and Apple with its HomeKit<br />
products aim to provide similar services. They<br />
are vying to become a central hub within our<br />
homes to ensure our health, security and<br />
family communication.<br />
Internet of healthy things<br />
The supply of Internet-connected health devices<br />
is also on the rise. In 2015, Partners<br />
HealthCare announced a partnership with
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —27<br />
Samsung Electronics to develop the next<br />
generation of personalized digital and mobile<br />
solutions for health and wellness. In 2016,<br />
Nestlé Institute and Samsung announced<br />
plans to pool their resources to build a connected<br />
health and lifestyle platform that will<br />
interact with everything from smart TVs to<br />
wearables to helping people make healthier<br />
choices. Several fashion firms launched socalled<br />
tech shirts in 2015, i.e., shirts that measure<br />
heart rates, breathing or live biometrics.<br />
Fitbit’s success with its activity and heart rate<br />
trackers is another example of a gadget that<br />
monitors our health. Research and Markets<br />
expects the wearable device market to<br />
grow from USD 23 billion in 2015 to USD<br />
173 billion by 2020. However, selling devices<br />
and apps is only a small piece of the connected<br />
health market. Collecting, analyzing<br />
and managing the data is where the true<br />
potential lies, helping to find better solutions<br />
for our healthcare market.<br />
Internet of mindful and security things<br />
“Digitization has<br />
helped create a<br />
global conscience.”<br />
Uwe Neumann<br />
With GPS-enabled devices such as the<br />
TrackR Bravo, finding lost keys or bags has<br />
never been easier. If the item is attached to<br />
your key or bag, you can easily locate it using<br />
an app on your phone. With a smart sleep<br />
mask, you can track your sleep using medical-grade<br />
sensors. The tracking enables you<br />
to improve your sleep habits. With a Vigo<br />
headset, you can track your alertness (for instance<br />
when driving long distances by car)<br />
and it can send an alarm if your alertness declines.<br />
When Alphabet (Google) acquired<br />
smart thermostat and smoke alarm maker<br />
Nest in 2014, it approached the ability to capitalize<br />
on the rising demand for home security<br />
the smart way. Nest also provides a Dropcam<br />
that helps to monitor movements in your<br />
home using an Internet connection and live<br />
streams via an app on your smartphone when<br />
you are away. Robots are becoming more intelligent,<br />
too, and can help to keep people in<br />
need of care at home longer by connecting<br />
them to a smart-home Internet caring hub.<br />
The smart-home market is expected to reach<br />
a value of USD 122 billion by 2022 and is<br />
estimated to grow by a compound annual<br />
growth rate of 14% between 2016 and 2022,<br />
according to MarketsandMarkets. “Smart<br />
home” encompasses everything from lighting<br />
and entertainment control to security and access<br />
control to smart kitchens as well as<br />
smart meters and smoke detectors.<br />
For some readers, some of these developments<br />
may invoke visions of George Orwell’s<br />
“1984.” People who oppose the idea of<br />
an interconnected world are typically concerned<br />
about protecting their privacy as well<br />
as the risk of misinformation and manipulation.<br />
However, society can also find ways to<br />
harness the technological progress for educational<br />
purposes and to bring people closer<br />
together. For example, young children are increasingly<br />
using programs such as YouTube<br />
to learn about cooking (and pretty much everything<br />
else). Or consider apps like SideChef,<br />
which provides step-by-step instructions on<br />
how to cook a meal. Such tools can help keep<br />
the family together at dinner time, as children<br />
will want to share what they bake or cook with<br />
the rest of the family. And parents can use<br />
devices such as a Wi-Fi-blocking pepper<br />
grinder to make sure their children cannot<br />
access their smartphones or iPads during<br />
dinner. Viewed from that perspective, there<br />
is indeed a lot to be gained from today’s connectivity.<br />
Uwe Neumann<br />
Research Analyst<br />
+41 44 334 56 45<br />
uwe.neumann@credit-suisse.com<br />
Additional details<br />
on our map
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —28<br />
Photo: Vorname Name/Agentur
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —29<br />
Internet solutions<br />
The dark side<br />
of digitization<br />
In the old PC-dominated IT world, you had a protected private environment that could<br />
be ringfenced with perimeter and infrastructure security, separating it from the outside<br />
world. In today’s globalized world, digitization and the younger generation’s IT consumption<br />
patterns represent a challenge to ensuring a safe cyber environment.<br />
TEXT ULRICH KAISER, Credit Suisse<br />
Back in the 1980s when the Internet<br />
was in its infancy, cybersecurity<br />
was not an issue. Since then, however,<br />
the number and sophistication<br />
of cyberattacks have increased. The topics<br />
making the headlines these days include<br />
the ransomware epidemic, the refocusing of<br />
malware from PCs/laptops to mobile devices,<br />
the deployment of billions of unprotected or<br />
little protected Internet of Things (IoT) devices<br />
or cyberattacks targeting businesses and<br />
governments. According to several sources,<br />
there are at least 70 million different pieces<br />
of malware in circulation worldwide. They are<br />
disseminated in particular by smartphones<br />
and other handhelds. Moreover, at least 70%<br />
of e-mails are spam.<br />
Compared with a few decades ago, our<br />
dependence on the Internet and other networks<br />
for critical services and information has<br />
grown tremendously. Particular growth has<br />
occurred in the mobile Internet-enabled new<br />
types of technology infrastructure such as<br />
power grids, cloud computing, industrial automation<br />
networks, intelligent transportation<br />
systems, e-government and electronic banking,<br />
which are becoming more and more interconnected.<br />
As failure in one technology can<br />
affect other technologies, greater convenience<br />
and efficiency increases vulnerability<br />
to cyberattacks and makes any defense<br />
against such attacks more difficult.<br />
There is a looming risk that cyber-attacks<br />
may cause the Internet to break down. In fact,<br />
if we do not do anything soon, we risk causing<br />
permanent damage to our economy. The<br />
incoming US president Donald Trump said during<br />
his campaign that cybersecurity would be<br />
“an immediate and top priority” once he comes<br />
to power. With an emphasis on improving vital<br />
infrastructure, we therefore expect to see an<br />
increase in federal spending on security, which<br />
should benefit cybersecurity companies such<br />
as Cisco Systems, Palo Alto Networks or<br />
Check Point Software.<br />
Cybersecurity then and now<br />
In the old IT world, you had a protected private<br />
environment that could be ringfenced with perimeter<br />
and infrastructure security, separating<br />
it from the outside world and trying to control<br />
what gets in and out. This approach is now<br />
reaching its limits. Firewalls stop most threats,<br />
typically more than 99%, but unfortunately not<br />
100%. The remaining less than 1% of threats<br />
that still come through appears negligible at<br />
first, but translates into the thousands, as the<br />
total number of threats amounts to millions.<br />
Bad news about cybersecurity is good<br />
news for the IT security industry. We expect<br />
spending on IT security to grow at a much<br />
faster pace than underlying IT spending, which<br />
means it will grab a bigger slice of the cake<br />
going forward. Industry researcher Gartner<br />
predicts that worldwide spending on information<br />
security products and services will reach<br />
USD 81.6 bn in 2016, an increase of 7.9%<br />
from the previous year. Currently, this represents<br />
only about 2.4% of global IT spending,<br />
which Gartner expects to reach USD 3.4 trn.<br />
Over the next five years, Gartner foresees an<br />
annual growth rate of about 8%, which appears<br />
a little light, in our view, given the growing<br />
challenges.<br />
Preferring prevention over planning<br />
Though many surveys conclude that spending<br />
for cybersecurity is among the top three priorities<br />
of chief technology officers (CTOs),<br />
one can argue that even higher spending is<br />
justified given the significance of cyberthreats.<br />
There is a constraint, however, namely<br />
the associated costs and sometimes even<br />
the willingness to spend money on cybersecurity.<br />
One reason not to spend more is the<br />
lack of a mid-term cybersecurity strategy.<br />
Many companies still adhere to a stop-andgo<br />
policy, which means less spending if there<br />
is no immediate threat or incident and then<br />
panick and invest if there is. This is especially<br />
true if an incident is widely published in the<br />
media, for instance the Sony attack in 2014<br />
and the attack on the US Office of Personnel<br />
Management in 2015. As soon as the security<br />
problem is fixed, however, spending is<br />
usually reduced again.<br />
Another reason for the spending restraint<br />
is that many CTOs tend to opt for preventive<br />
measures when planning their security strategies,<br />
a trend poised to continue in years to<br />
come. However, reality looks different, as preventive<br />
measures have proven weak in >
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —30<br />
“Bad news about cybersecurity is actually<br />
good news for the IT security industry.”<br />
Ulrich Kaiser<br />
Companies are spending<br />
most for network security<br />
Security and vulnerability management, and<br />
network security are the fastest growing<br />
segments within IT security. Corporate endpoint,<br />
and Web security are getting disrupted by next<br />
generation solutions. Source: IDC, CS estimates<br />
in USD bn<br />
40000<br />
35000<br />
30000<br />
25000<br />
20000<br />
15000<br />
10000<br />
5000<br />
0<br />
2012 2017<br />
Network security<br />
Security and vulnerability<br />
Endpoint security<br />
Identity and access management<br />
Web security<br />
Messaging security<br />
Other<br />
blocking cyberattacks. As a result, many organizations<br />
have adopted the detection-and-response<br />
approach to strengthen their security.<br />
New trends in cybersecurity<br />
+53<br />
%<br />
+83<br />
%<br />
We expect security technologies such as security<br />
information and event management<br />
(SIEM) and secure Web gateways (SWG) to<br />
evolve. Organizations are likely to increasingly<br />
focus on detection and response, because<br />
taking a preventive approach has not been<br />
successful in blocking malicious attacks so<br />
far and probably will not be successful in the<br />
future. Thus, businesses should balance their<br />
spending and include both.<br />
We can imagine security spending to<br />
evolve to become more service-driven as businesses<br />
continue to struggle with an overall<br />
lack of cybersecurity talent in the industry.<br />
Managed detection and response (MDR)<br />
is growing as organizations are faced with<br />
having to use both technology and human<br />
expertise to pinpoint risks and improve the cyber<br />
environment. This is especially relevant in<br />
addressing insider threats and targeted advanced<br />
threats.<br />
Hackers wanted – high salary reward<br />
The purchase and implementation of new security<br />
technologies is vital to protect businesses,<br />
and so is the development of cybersecurity<br />
skills in employees, which are not<br />
reflected in the Gartner estimates and come<br />
as additional costs. These are justified by a<br />
shortage of skilled security professionals,<br />
which is both dangerous and expensive since<br />
it leaves businesses vulnerable to attack, resulting<br />
in reputational damage and data loss.<br />
The most highly specialized technical skills<br />
are the ones in greatest demand and claiming<br />
high salaries. Businesses are seeking professionals<br />
with expertise in software development,<br />
attack mitigation, intrusion detection,<br />
network monitoring and other areas of cybersecurity.<br />
They need not look far: convince<br />
hackers to change allegiance, vindicate them<br />
and use their skills to maintain a safe cyber<br />
environment. Hackers are motivated by a multitude<br />
of reasons, such as profit, protest or<br />
simply challenge. Another reason, and one<br />
that can be used for the good, is to evaluate<br />
system weaknesses to help formulate defenses<br />
against potential hackers.<br />
Ulrich Kaiser<br />
Research Analyst<br />
+41 44 334 56 49<br />
ulrich.kaiser@credit-suisse.com
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —31<br />
Fintech<br />
The age of<br />
cryptofinance<br />
The invention of bitcoin in 2009 ushered in the age of<br />
cryptofinance and promised an end to the problems associated<br />
with physical cash. Although the hype around bitcoin and<br />
blockchain – the public ledger that records bitcoin transactions –<br />
is now receding, the next generation of cryptofinance technologies<br />
is already moving ahead and applying lessons learned.<br />
INTERVIEW BY CHRISTINE SCHMID, Credit Suisse<br />
Christine Schmid: Tell me a bit<br />
about Monetas.<br />
Johann Gevers The idea of Monetas<br />
comes out of my desire to do something that<br />
helps the world work better, not through<br />
politics but through technology. I thought<br />
long about what kind of technology would<br />
make things better. I came to the conclusion<br />
that the financial system is at the center<br />
of everything, and that it is too centralized,<br />
which creates dangerous risks and instability,<br />
and holds back social progress. We<br />
saw that during the 2008 financial crisis.<br />
Moreover, the problems associated with the<br />
crisis have not been solved. In fact, things<br />
have gotten worse. We have some measure<br />
of temporary stability, but the problems<br />
have gotten bigger.<br />
In what way?<br />
Johann Gevers One key aspect is that<br />
today’s financial system is too centralized:<br />
there’s too much power concentrated in too<br />
few hands. And that can lead to abuse of<br />
power or massive suffering if the centralized<br />
system fails. So at Monetas we are building<br />
technologies to help transition the financial<br />
system toward greater decentralization –<br />
the democratization of finance. Our solution<br />
belongs to the category of “cryptofinance” –<br />
the industry term for financial technologies<br />
that use encryption algorithms to ensure<br />
that financial transactions are private and<br />
secure.<br />
What exactly is your solution?<br />
Johann Gevers We’ve developed a technology<br />
that gives the user more control.<br />
It’s a contracting platform that gets around<br />
some of the disadvantages of existing<br />
cryptofinance technologies and allows you<br />
to complete transactions in a fraction of<br />
the time and extremely cheaply. This is especially<br />
important for retail transactions.<br />
Let’s backtrack a bit to the existing<br />
cryptofinance technologies. Most people<br />
still don’t know what they are.<br />
Johann Gevers The core invention in<br />
cryptofinance is true digital cash which –<br />
unlike physical cash or digital music – cannot<br />
be copied or counterfeited. This transition<br />
from traditional physical cash to modern<br />
digital cash brings tremendous efficiency<br />
gains. The Bank of England, for example,<br />
has calculated that switching from physical<br />
cash to digital cash will generate a sustained<br />
3% boost to GDP. That is massive,<br />
and the efficiency and productivity gains are<br />
even greater for developing countries.<br />
Where does blockchain fit into this scenario?<br />
Johann Gevers A blockchain is a distributed<br />
database – a public ledger for digital<br />
transactions. It’s a so-called consensus<br />
system. In other words, it’s a way for a lot<br />
of different people or, more specifically,<br />
a lot of different computers all over the<br />
world to confirm transactions by coming to<br />
a consensus about them. If you want to<br />
execute a transaction in a consensus system,<br />
all these computers have to vote and agree<br />
on it. That makes a consensus system<br />
resistant to political influence and corruption,<br />
as well as robust against technological<br />
errors and failure, which is a big advantage.<br />
For example?<br />
Johann Gevers Consensus systems<br />
such as blockchains are good for safely<br />
storing high-value assets and information.<br />
Commercial registers, which record business<br />
entities and real estate ownership, are<br />
one example. Secure electronic voting systems<br />
are another.<br />
And the disadvantages of blockchains?<br />
Johann Gevers The downside is that<br />
consensus systems are very expensive to<br />
maintain and to run. In the bitcoin blockchain,<br />
for example, the full cost of a transaction<br />
is about five dollars. That’s a lot<br />
of money. Moreover, let’s say you go to Starbucks<br />
or to your grocery store and want to<br />
buy something. When you’re at the checkout<br />
counter, you don’t want to wait ten<br />
minutes to several hours for a global network<br />
of computers to reach consensus before<br />
the transaction is approved. For retail transactions<br />
you need a system that’s efficient,<br />
fast and cheap – and that scales to millions<br />
of transactions per second. The bitcoin<br />
network can only handle a maximum of<br />
7 transactions per second.<br />
Which brings us back to<br />
contracting systems.<br />
Johann Gevers Right. Contracting platforms<br />
such as Monetas can execute<br />
transactions in milliseconds, at a cost of<br />
less than 1/10,000th of a cent, and<br />
can effortlessly handle the entire world’s<br />
transactions in real-time. This makes >
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —32<br />
Photo: Thomas Eugster<br />
“If you are restricted to<br />
physical cash, you can only do<br />
face-to-face transactions.”<br />
Johann Gevers
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —33<br />
them ideally suited for retail transactions.<br />
And by integrating contracting platforms<br />
with consensus systems, you can have the<br />
best of both worlds. You can securely store<br />
your assets in a consensus system, and<br />
efficiently trade those assets in a contracting<br />
system.<br />
How does the Monetas platform work?<br />
Johann Gevers In the Monetas system,<br />
only the transaction parties need to agree,<br />
then the transaction is completed. You don’t<br />
need the slow, expensive agreement of<br />
millions of unrelated parties, the way you do<br />
in consensus systems. The first application<br />
of the Monetas technology is a mobile<br />
payment system. Anybody in the world can<br />
download our software onto their mobile<br />
phone for free and do transactions with<br />
anybody else who’s got our software. Users<br />
load digital cash onto their mobile phone<br />
at an exchanger, such as a kiosk or ATM or<br />
bank, and can then pay conveniently from<br />
their mobile phone. The great thing about<br />
our platform is that it is open, not locked<br />
into any provider or device. So you can<br />
do transactions with anyone, regardless<br />
which mobile phone provider they use,<br />
or which country they’re in. You don’t even<br />
need a bank account. So our system is a<br />
great solution for the 80% of people in<br />
Africa who have no bank account. And our<br />
transactions are far cheaper than any<br />
other system on the market. In fact, they’re<br />
even cheaper (and more secure) than<br />
physical cash. Physical cash costs the<br />
economy about 1–2% of GDP in developed<br />
countries, and a stunning 5–7% of GDP in<br />
developing countries. Switching to digital<br />
cash will provide a tremendous boost to our<br />
economies.<br />
Has Monetas gone beyond the<br />
prototype stage?<br />
Johann Gevers We launched a successful<br />
pilot of our platform two months ago<br />
in South Africa. Our partners are very happy<br />
with the results and are now planning<br />
to roll out our platform countrywide to over<br />
1,000 locations, as well as to further<br />
countries in Africa. So this is a very exciting<br />
time for us.<br />
Looking down the road, who stands<br />
to benefit most from cryptofinance<br />
technologies?<br />
Johann Gevers Well, very clearly, consumers<br />
are going to benefit immensely.<br />
These technologies will enable user-friendly<br />
services that go far beyond what we have<br />
today. You’ll be able to make transactions<br />
“The idea of<br />
Monetas<br />
comes out<br />
of my desire to<br />
do something<br />
that helps<br />
the world work<br />
better, not<br />
through<br />
politics but<br />
through<br />
technology.”<br />
Johann Gevers<br />
Johann Gevers<br />
is founder and CEO of Monetas, founder<br />
of Crypto Valley, and founder and president<br />
of the Digital Finance Compliance<br />
Association. He is an entrepreneur with<br />
over 20 years’ experience in business,<br />
finance and technology, and has served<br />
as strategic advisor to companies across<br />
diverse industries, including awardwinning<br />
technology start-ups. Johann is<br />
a visionary thought leader in the fintech<br />
space and was recently rated as one<br />
of the Top 100 most influential finance<br />
leaders in Switzerland.<br />
and safely store your money without having<br />
to remember passwords and without having<br />
to carry around keys or electronic cards.<br />
And you’ll be able to do it all on your mobile<br />
phone, with better security than traditional<br />
banking (including cloud backups).<br />
By connecting billions of unbanked to the<br />
global economy, these technologies will<br />
enable everybody in the world to generate<br />
wealth and improve their quality of life far<br />
beyond what is possible today.<br />
Today people are excluded from the<br />
global economy.<br />
Johann Gevers Yes. Billions of people –<br />
more than half of the world’s adults – have<br />
little or no access to formal financial services,<br />
and do almost all their transactions<br />
with physical cash. If you are restricted to<br />
physical cash, you can only do face-toface<br />
transactions. That means you are part<br />
of a very small economic network, which<br />
severely limits your ability to create wealth.<br />
So poor people stay poor. One of the fundamental<br />
requirements for generating<br />
wealth and improving one’s quality of life is<br />
being part of a large economic network.<br />
Today, even in poor countries, virtually<br />
everyone has a mobile phone. Our mobile<br />
platform gives everyone with a mobile<br />
phone access to the world’s most advanced<br />
financial services, and thus dramatically<br />
boosts their ability to generate wealth.<br />
People will use their rising wealth to improve<br />
their healthcare, education and quality of<br />
life in general.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —35<br />
Putting<br />
a roof over<br />
your head<br />
Rapid urbanization in the developing economies and demographic changes in the<br />
advanced economies are two of the dominant trends the global economy is facing.<br />
Factors such as migration to the cities, population aging, increasing incomes and<br />
the growing middle class in the emerging economies will have an impact on how we<br />
live and what our housing requirements are.<br />
TEXT BY FABIAN WALTERT, Credit Suisse<br />
2<br />
1<br />
CO-HOUSING<br />
Living in an anonymous society<br />
comes with a loss of community spirit.<br />
Co-housing arrangements seek<br />
to bring back some of the benefits of<br />
small villages in an increasingly<br />
urbanized world.<br />
MULTIGENERATIONAL HOUSING<br />
Due to urbanization, increasing<br />
incomes and mobility, it has become<br />
rare that several generations<br />
of a family live under the same roof.<br />
Thus, the benefits of this arrangement<br />
are disappearing. One initiative<br />
to rebuild social networks similar<br />
to families is multigenerational<br />
housing.<br />
3<br />
MICRO-APARTMENTS<br />
Securing housing affordability<br />
and preventing segregation is seen<br />
as crucial for growing cities that<br />
grapple with rising land prices<br />
and growing land scarcity. A promising<br />
approach is to build small<br />
and affordable micro-apartments.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —36<br />
Population growth in the 21st century<br />
mainly affects cities that are<br />
successful in attracting people by<br />
offering them job opportunities, decent<br />
healthcare and affordable housing. Cities<br />
in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the<br />
Middle East are expected to grow at a higher<br />
pace, mainly driven by people seeking a better<br />
life and hoping to become part of the rising<br />
middle class. However, urbanization is not<br />
only a phenomenon of the emerging economies.<br />
Cities in the advanced economies are<br />
also growing, albeit at a slower pace. London,<br />
for example, is expected to reach a population<br />
of over 10 million by 2031, an increase<br />
of 15% compared to today. It is expected that<br />
by 2030, 41 such megacities will exist, up<br />
from 28 in 2015. Around 12 of them will be<br />
situated in emerging economies. The United<br />
Nations is even predicting the advent of the<br />
first so-called gigacity (more than 100 million<br />
residents) in China by 2020. This trend will<br />
take 6.3 billion people to global urban centers<br />
by 2050, an increase of 75% from today, with<br />
two out of three residents around the world<br />
living in urban areas by then.<br />
Efficiency and focus on affordability<br />
The strong flow of people to prosperous cities<br />
is a result of the economic benefits such<br />
cities offer. However, attracting more and<br />
more people is going to put pressure on infrastructure<br />
and land prices, further lifting<br />
prices of urban real estate and thus reducing<br />
its affordability. Furthermore, the stronger<br />
competition for space will increase urban<br />
density. One answer to that development is<br />
to reduce the size of apartments. This effect<br />
is already visible in certain megacities such<br />
as Tokyo, where apartments today are 14%<br />
smaller than a decade ago. Thus, the main<br />
challenge for residential developers will be to<br />
find out how they can use limited space more<br />
efficiently and in an affordable manner.<br />
New and different types of housing<br />
Another key challenge for nearly all countries<br />
will be the demographic shift that will fundamentally<br />
affect the demand structure for<br />
real estate. According to the United Nations,<br />
the share of people aged 60 or older will rise<br />
by 2.8% per annum from 2025 to 2030.<br />
While the developing economies will have the<br />
youngest population, they will also record the<br />
fastest pace of population aging. The growing<br />
urban middle class of the emerging economies<br />
will increase demand for housing both<br />
in terms of quantity and quality. Meanwhile,<br />
the aging baby boomer generation in the<br />
advanced economies will require the development<br />
of new housing alternatives. An increase<br />
in the share of older people will<br />
change not only the way communities organize<br />
services so that care is more accessible,<br />
but also the cultural view of aging to make<br />
sure that the older generation is integrated in<br />
the community.<br />
Shifting demographic trends will likely<br />
create a strong need for new and different<br />
types of housing. As the elderly tend to be<br />
healthier than in the past, many do not consider<br />
nursing homes an attractive alternative<br />
to their existing homes. At the same time,<br />
increasing mobility – a further megatrend –<br />
tends to increase the spatial distance among<br />
family members. Thus, senior citizens are<br />
likely to increasingly search for alternative<br />
housing that is designed to accommodate<br />
their changing needs as they grow older.<br />
Answers to the challenges<br />
These two megatrends – urbanization and demographic<br />
shift – will result in several challenges:<br />
scarcity and unaffordability of housing,<br />
lack of accessibility of services for families<br />
and the elderly and loss of communal<br />
spirit. The search for answers to these challenges<br />
is still going on. However, the real estate<br />
industry and a multitude of local citizens’<br />
initiatives are suggesting possible routes in<br />
a variety of alternative housing projects that<br />
are emerging around the globe. Among the<br />
most promising of these approaches are: micro-apartments,<br />
multigenerational housing<br />
and co-housing. All of them address some of<br />
the challenges emerging on the global housing<br />
market and could serve as future housing<br />
solutions.<br />
Fabian Waltert<br />
Real Estate Analyst<br />
+41 44 333 25 57<br />
fabian.waltert@credit-suisse.com
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —37<br />
1<br />
Photo: Jeremy M. Lang<br />
The Pacifica Cohousing community in Carrboro, North Carolina. Co-housing offers the benefits of small villages in an urbanized world.<br />
Residents inhabit private spaces but share goods and services within the community.<br />
Co-housing<br />
Originated in Denmark in the 1960s and then picked up by<br />
many regions all over the world, co-housing describes a<br />
communal way of living where people inhabit private spaces<br />
accompanied by shared facilities for the community.<br />
The management of these communities is not hierarchical.<br />
The inhabitants decide demo cratically by considering the<br />
desires and needs of all residents. Life in a co-housing<br />
community is characterized by different shared activities<br />
within the community (e. g. group care, shared meals,<br />
support in shopping, social interaction, etc.), where participation<br />
is desirable, but not mandatory. These communities<br />
are very heterogeneous in their purposes and objectives,<br />
and they can be found in urban, suburban and rural<br />
areas. For example, Older Women’s Co-Housing in Great<br />
Britain seeks to establish a community for women aged<br />
over 50, in what can be seen as a special form of multigenerational<br />
housing. Others, like Pacifica Cohousing in<br />
the USA, put more emphasis on creating communal<br />
living with a focus on sustainability. The main idea behind<br />
the co- housing movement is to find answers to the changing<br />
needs of people around the world rather than to<br />
provide a solution for the problems associated with the<br />
demographic shift. The main economic advantage of<br />
co-housing is the opportunity to share goods and services<br />
within the community. People may also enjoy the community<br />
spirit otherwise lost in today’s anonymous urban<br />
areas. Yet monetary participation and cooperation among<br />
participants is forced, which can lead to friction within<br />
the community. However, co-housing is likely to become<br />
increasingly relevant as a housing alternative, bringing<br />
back some of the benefits of small villages in an increasingly<br />
urbanized world.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —38<br />
Multigenerational housing<br />
As incomes and mobility increase, it has become rare in<br />
many countries for multiple generations to live under the<br />
same roof. Thus, the benefits of this traditional housing<br />
arrangement (such as free care for children and the<br />
elderly) are disappearing. In addition, the growing number<br />
of elderly increases public care costs. An initiative to rebuild<br />
the social network similar to families was taken<br />
in Germany with the so-called “Mehrgenerationenhäuser”<br />
(multigenerational houses). The idea behind such<br />
houses is to create an environment that accommodates<br />
the elderly, children and nurseries, where young and old<br />
can support each other. The “Lighthouse” in Berlin is<br />
one example of a multigenerational house where 29 adults<br />
aged from 26 to 70, 14 children between 2 and 13 years of<br />
age and several pets live together, creating a family of<br />
choice for many of them. They epitomize the very idea of<br />
the sharing economy, as the senior residents, for example,<br />
read books to the children and the teenagers train the<br />
elderly to use computers. Multigenerational living is not<br />
only a socializing project for the older generation. It also<br />
helps provide new housing options for open- minded<br />
younger people that are priced out of the regular housing<br />
market and are happy to find an affordable place to live.<br />
A more extended form of multigenerational housing can be<br />
found in intergenerational living projects, where nursing<br />
homes and nurseries exist under one roof. Such arrangements<br />
are expected to significantly reduce the cost of care.<br />
While multigenerational housing may be considered a<br />
niche model rather than the global solution to the housing<br />
problems associated with demographic change, it is a<br />
promising model for the future.<br />
2<br />
The Murundaka Cohousing Community in Melbourne, Australia, is an example of multigenerational housing.<br />
The idea is to bring together young and old in an environment where they can support each other, at affordable cost.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —39<br />
3<br />
The Nakagin Capsule Tower<br />
in Tokyo, Japan, was an<br />
early experiment in microapartments.<br />
Hardly larger<br />
than a big living room, these<br />
tiny dwellings offer a solution<br />
to the twin problems of<br />
sustainability and affordable<br />
housing in city centers.<br />
Photo: Manakin / Getty Images<br />
Micro-apartments<br />
Photo: Chris Grose<br />
Small, often sustainable and, most importantly, affordable.<br />
This is how micro-apartments or tiny houses can be described.<br />
The idea is to downsize apartments to 20 to 30 square meters,<br />
in some cases even less, and making access to affordable<br />
housing in city centers and near workplaces possible. One<br />
of the first and most radical buildings with micro-apartments<br />
was the Nakagin Capsule Tower built in Japan in the 1970s.<br />
It contains 140 stan dardized capsules of less than nine square<br />
meters each. Meanwhile, with cities growing exponentially<br />
and land becoming more scarce and expensive, the idea of<br />
micro-apartments is gaining relevance again. In New York City,<br />
for example, a project called Carmel Place was finished in<br />
2016. It is the first modern building in New York where the<br />
size of apartments is allowed to be smaller than defined by<br />
regulation, featuring 55 micro-apartments in a nine-story<br />
building. The apartments are furnished, every room is cleaned<br />
once a week and there are additional amenities offered to<br />
the tenants such as a gym. Critics argue that people will feel<br />
lonely and isolated in such apartments, that apartments tend<br />
to become smaller while rents stay the same and that such<br />
small living quarters may create the slums of the future by attracting<br />
low-income tenants. However, micro-apartments<br />
allow young people, professionals, service-industry workers<br />
and retirees to live in central, otherwise unaffordable locations<br />
and thus counter segregation trends.<br />
Photo: Vorname Name/Agentur
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —40<br />
Photo: Bram Belloni<br />
Mid-level white-collar jobs are disappearing, says Randstad CEO Jacques van den Broek. The result is a very different job market.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —41<br />
Flexible working<br />
Labor in the<br />
new millennium<br />
Numerous factors that include automation and robotics, longer life expectancy,<br />
underfunded pension systems and younger generations who think differently are changing<br />
the supply and demand for jobs as we know them.<br />
INTERVIEW BY RETO HESS, Credit Suisse<br />
Reto Hess: Digitization – specifically<br />
information and communications technology<br />
(ICT) – is having an ever greater impact<br />
on our daily lives, including our working lives.<br />
How big a change are we looking at?<br />
Jacques van den Broek We recently<br />
published the 2016 edition of our “Flexibility<br />
@work report” on the future of work in the<br />
digital age, focusing specifically on the<br />
consequences we see nowadays of digitization.<br />
There are two trains of thought here:<br />
one, more fatalistic, is that about 40%<br />
of jobs are disappearing. But the second,<br />
espoused in a separate report put out<br />
by the OECD in May, maintains that 50%<br />
of jobs would change naturally in any event.<br />
What do you notice in terms of what your<br />
clients are asking for today?<br />
Jacques van den Broek People get fixed<br />
on an ideal profile, which tells you right<br />
away that they don’t know much about the<br />
labor market. For example, a client might<br />
wish to have a person in their mid-30s with<br />
relevant skills who has been successful<br />
at your main competitor but is looking for a<br />
new challenge in your company. It’s not<br />
going to happen. Increasingly we try to steer<br />
companies away from their ideal profiles<br />
in the direction of younger people, older<br />
people or maybe people from another country.<br />
Have you observed any shift in demand<br />
from knowledge-based jobs to more<br />
creative or socially oriented jobs as a result<br />
of increasing ICT and automation?<br />
Jacques van den Broek No. It’s a bit<br />
early. If you’re talking about artificial intelligence<br />
(AI), for example, the highest level<br />
of artificial intelligence that we see today in<br />
our sector has the intellect of a two-year-<br />
Jacques van den Broek<br />
is CEO and chairman of the Executive<br />
Board of Randstad Holding nv. He<br />
graduated in law at Tilburg University in<br />
the Netherlands and briefly held a<br />
management position at Vendex International<br />
before joining Randstad as a<br />
branch manager in 1988. He joined the<br />
Executive Board in 2004.<br />
old. So in 78% of cases, AI now recognizes<br />
a picture of a cat as being a cat. When it<br />
comes to selecting a personal profile – and<br />
certainly that of a knowledge worker –<br />
it will be quite a few years before technology<br />
can make that choice. AI first has to reach<br />
“technological singularity,” which is when<br />
machines surpass human intelligence. If this<br />
happens, scientists predict that cognitive<br />
professions could be improved and maybe<br />
partially substituted.<br />
That said, the report you mentioned at<br />
the beginning does state that progress in<br />
ICT is leading to job polarization, where<br />
there is demand for high-tech, high-paid<br />
jobs and low-tech, low-paid jobs,<br />
but the jobs in the middle are losing out.<br />
What is going on there?<br />
Jacques van den Broek You have nonroutine<br />
tasks at the top and low ends of<br />
the labor market. A gardener does a nonroutine<br />
task that cannot be automated.<br />
A nurse does non-routine tasks that can<br />
only partly be automated. What is interesting<br />
is that mid-level white-collar jobs, which<br />
previously were highly regarded, are very<br />
quickly disappearing. And that’s an issue,<br />
because most of the social systems >
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —42<br />
“People become fixed on<br />
an ideal profile, which tells<br />
you right away that they<br />
don’t know much about the<br />
labor market.”<br />
Jacques van den Broek<br />
Jacques van den Broek If you’re talking<br />
ICT professionals, their main reason for doing<br />
a job is the attractiveness of the project.<br />
In addition, and especially if they’re young,<br />
they are increasingly reluctant to leave<br />
home. And these are jobs that can be performed<br />
remotely. So yes, the workforce<br />
of the future – in addition to being 18 to 68,<br />
will be partly remote and partly freelancers.<br />
Indeed, we think that between 30% and<br />
35% of the total workforce will have a job<br />
that is not fixed.<br />
In terms of generations, you have a<br />
programin the Netherlands that helps<br />
older employees.<br />
Jacques van den Broek You’re talking<br />
about +Power. Which is not necessarily<br />
to say that old is ideal. In the Netherlands,<br />
we are heavily advocating stepping away a<br />
bit from the bias of ideal profiles and instead<br />
look at what people bring to the marketplace.<br />
But it’s early days. It’s still a<br />
hard sell for us to get older people back into<br />
the workforce.<br />
Why is that?<br />
Jacques van den Broek Biases are one<br />
reason. Another is that owing to pay scales<br />
and pay models, over time people outprice<br />
themselves in the labor market. It’s also<br />
linked to demand. The last time we were<br />
really creating different profiles was in 2007,<br />
which is also the last time we saw serious<br />
economic growth in Europe. Ten years ago!<br />
Once growth returns, clients will lose their<br />
reluctance. Right now, people are thinking<br />
short term; but in the long term, look at<br />
the demographics. Clients need to be open<br />
to new profiles anyway. So do employees.<br />
When people lose their job, the first thing<br />
they do is look for the same job that just<br />
disappeared, which is always tough.<br />
Employers and employees have a joint rebuilt<br />
just after the Second World War –<br />
pensions, healthcare, education – hinge on<br />
a middle class. And that needs to change.<br />
We’re looking at a different labor market.<br />
What can be done to address the problem?<br />
Jacques van den Broek Companies<br />
need to do mid- to long-term planning to<br />
see how their workforce can change. Countries<br />
need to create proactive labor market<br />
policies. If, as a country, you create a STEM<br />
(science, technology, engineering and medicine)<br />
hub – a knowledge hub – like the<br />
Rust Belt in the USA or the Eindhoven area<br />
in the Netherlands, for every STEM job<br />
you attract, you get 2.5 to 4 low- to mid-level<br />
jobs surrounding this activity for all sorts<br />
of reasons. Canada, for example, attracts<br />
1% of its total workforce almost every year<br />
based on a very clear agenda. Europe has<br />
no proactive labor market policy. And therefore,<br />
the people who want to come here<br />
are not necessarily the people we need.<br />
How is your business model<br />
at Randstad evolving?<br />
Jacques van den Broek A few things<br />
are happening. First, labor markets are increasingly<br />
mismatched, both on a country<br />
level and internationally. There’s no real<br />
scarcity of people, but people live in the<br />
wrong places. So we see a role for us in allocating<br />
work around the globe. Of course,<br />
this needs to be facilitated by governments<br />
and accepted by clients. But eventually,<br />
there will be no choice. We also see a much<br />
more diverse workforce in terms of age –<br />
18 to 68, for example – and more made-tomeasure<br />
arrangements at work because<br />
not everybody will opt for a full-time job. So<br />
we see a role for us in creative workforce<br />
planning, too.<br />
Do you see much of a trend<br />
toward freelancing?<br />
sponsibility to safeguard employability.<br />
We start a conversation to redefine their<br />
competencies toward different jobs that are<br />
available in the labor market.<br />
What happens when you add millennials<br />
into the labor market mix?<br />
Jacques van den Broek You see slight<br />
differences. Millennials are concerned<br />
about a sense of purpose and work/life balance.<br />
They want to work for start-ups<br />
and small companies. As an employer, you<br />
have to think about how to attract this<br />
group. There is still quite a divide between<br />
what companies think are their unique<br />
selling propositions and what people are<br />
looking for in the workplace. We believe that<br />
adapting to the needs of the new generation<br />
will be key in attracting the right talent.<br />
As a candidate, is it an advantage<br />
for me to be on social networks?<br />
Jacques van den Broek Of course. If you<br />
are unknown, it’s impossible for us to find<br />
you. In the old days, when people came into<br />
my branch, I’d say to them, let’s stay in<br />
touch. Because if I have not found something<br />
after two weeks, then all the candidates<br />
will have come in. It works roughly the same<br />
in social media. If you want to send a very<br />
subtle sign that you’re looking for a job,<br />
change your profile picture on Facebook.<br />
We’ll know.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —44<br />
Young and<br />
car-free<br />
For many adults, driving is associated with freedom. In many industrialized countries,<br />
however, today’s young people are using cars less and less. We look at what caused<br />
this trend and whether it is a temporary or permanent phenomenon.<br />
100%<br />
Percentage of<br />
licensed drivers aged<br />
18–24 years<br />
87%<br />
Source: US Department of Transportation,<br />
Swiss Federal Statistical Office<br />
84%<br />
81%<br />
USA<br />
2014<br />
77%<br />
71%<br />
69%<br />
63%<br />
2010<br />
2005<br />
2000<br />
1994<br />
50%<br />
59%<br />
Photo: macida / Getty Images
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —45<br />
A<br />
car used to be seen as a status<br />
symbol, associated with freedom<br />
and adulthood. This appears to no<br />
longer hold true. In recent years,<br />
there have been signs of diminishing interest<br />
in cars among young adults in industrialized<br />
countries such as the USA, Norway, the<br />
Netherlands, UK, Germany and Japan. This<br />
trend, which began in the 1990s, first manifested<br />
itself in fewer driver’s licenses among<br />
young adults compared to previous generations<br />
at the same age. In the USA, for instance,<br />
the percentage of licensed drivers<br />
aged 20 to 24 years declined from 87.2% in<br />
1994 to 76.7% 2014. In most countries, this<br />
decline was accompanied by a general decrease<br />
in car use, as evidenced in a lower<br />
number of daily car trips and daily miles traveled<br />
by car among young adults. While in<br />
some countries, for instance Germany, young<br />
adults are using alternative means of transport<br />
such as trains and bicycles, in the USA,<br />
travel demand among the young overall has<br />
decreased.<br />
The drivers of changes in mobility<br />
There are two fundamentally different theories<br />
to help explain these changing mobility patterns.<br />
The first is based on socioeconomic<br />
factors, such as length of education and the<br />
age of marriage, which have changed considerably<br />
in recent years. The significant rise in<br />
the economic return on education has resulted<br />
in higher school enrollment. This trend was<br />
additionally fueled by the recent recession. In<br />
the USA, college enrollment jumped significantly<br />
more than the secular uptrend, since<br />
people with a low level of education were encouraged<br />
to continue their education to increase<br />
their chances of finding employment.<br />
The proportion of 25- to 30-year-old Americans<br />
with college degrees increased by four<br />
percentage points between 1995 and 2009,<br />
whereas the employment rate of the same<br />
cohort decreased by nine percentage points.<br />
This pattern can also be observed in most<br />
OECD countries. Due to more years spent on<br />
education, the age when people enter the job<br />
market has increased, which implies lower or<br />
no income during the student years and delayed<br />
marriages and parenthood. If the reason<br />
for the decline in car use is lower income in<br />
younger years and postponed family formation,<br />
then young adults are likely to travel more<br />
frequently by car as they get older and settle<br />
down. This theory is summarized in a phrase<br />
coined by a Netherlands Institute for Transport<br />
Policy Analysis report on the changing<br />
mobility behavior of young adults, “not carless,<br />
but car-later.”<br />
Preferences reshape mobility needs<br />
The second theory suggests that today’s<br />
young adults have different attitudes and mobility<br />
preferences than previous generations.<br />
Hence, the decline in car use is also the result<br />
of generation-specific factors. This theory is<br />
supported by statistics on young adults in Germany,<br />
for instance, who despite car ownership<br />
use their cars less often. One possible reason<br />
for this change in attitudes is information and<br />
communication technology, which substitutes<br />
physical travel with virtual mobility. Much of<br />
the freedom car ownership grants, for example<br />
access to information and products, catching<br />
up with family and friends, is today made<br />
possible by smartphones, online shopping and<br />
social media. A further change of attitude,<br />
which is related to cars being seen as a status<br />
symbol, is the transition from ownership<br />
to sharing. Today the car is seen as a useful<br />
tool that can be borrowed when needed, similar<br />
to streaming music instead of buying a CD.<br />
This trend is confirmed by a global rise in car<br />
sharing. From 2006 to 2014, the number of<br />
members of car sharing networks globally increased<br />
from 346,610 to 4.8 million. In the<br />
USA alone, the car sharing market is forecast<br />
to reach 3.8 million members by 2020 (1.3<br />
million in 2014).<br />
Conclusions and implications<br />
Most research studies show that the decrease<br />
in car ownership is most likely caused by a<br />
combination of the above factors, but predominantly<br />
by socioeconomic ones. The social<br />
factors outlined earlier, such as the trend toward<br />
longer education and postponed family<br />
formation, in conjunction with a lower income,<br />
have created a situation in which young adults<br />
are less inclined to use or buy a car. However,<br />
once young adults get older, their interest in<br />
cars is likely to increase. The impact of virtual<br />
mobility and smartphones on mobility is<br />
probably not quite as important since these<br />
technologies became widely used after the<br />
use of cars began to diminish. While a shift<br />
away from car ownership to sharing could impact<br />
the auto industry as personal car sales<br />
decline, this effect could be partly offset by<br />
increased sales of shared vehicles. Indeed, a<br />
report by McKinsey on the perspective of the<br />
automotive industry concludes that a shift toward<br />
shared mobility could lead to lower<br />
growth in global car sales. However, global<br />
car sales are expected to continue to show<br />
positive growth of around 2% p.a. by 2030.<br />
Based on these arguments, the change in mobility<br />
behavior will likely pose a challenge, but<br />
not a severe threat to the auto industry.<br />
Julia Dumanskaya<br />
Research Analyst<br />
+41 44 333 92 83<br />
julia.dumanskaya@credit-suisse.com
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —46<br />
Millennials<br />
drive<br />
sustainability<br />
Sustainability is a key concern for the millennials generation.<br />
Companies have to adapt processes and production practices to<br />
make their products sustainable and thus seize the opportunities<br />
this rapidly growing generation of consumers creates.<br />
The millennials generation (people<br />
born roughly between the 1980s<br />
and sometime in the early 2000s) is<br />
the most sustainability-conscious<br />
generation. Recent studies from Nielsen and<br />
Deloitte show that millennials are most willing<br />
to pay more for products and services seen<br />
as sustainable or coming from socially and<br />
environmentally responsible companies. As<br />
millennials are a rapidly growing consumer<br />
market, and an influential one, we look at how<br />
companies evolve to bring them on board,<br />
particularly how this concern about sustainability<br />
affects products and production in various<br />
sectors.<br />
Fishery shows the way<br />
Human rights violations in Asia’s fish, prawn<br />
and shrimp farms have attracted widespread<br />
media coverage. A major newspaper investigation<br />
in 2014 revealed that CP Foods, the<br />
world’s largest prawn farmer, had bought fish<br />
from Thai suppliers operating or buying from<br />
fishing boats manned by slaves. The fish ended<br />
up on the shelves of leading supermarket<br />
chains such as Walmart, Carrefour, Costco<br />
and Tesco, forcing companies to quickly react.<br />
Within a week, Carrefour decided to stop purchases<br />
from CP Foods, and CP Foods issued<br />
a statement condemning slavery and committing<br />
itself to behave responsibly under the<br />
monitoring of independent non-government<br />
organizations.<br />
The sustainable seafood movement that<br />
began in the 1990s highlighted the impact of<br />
overfishing or destructive fishing methods on<br />
the environment. Social marketing through<br />
ecolabel and awareness campaigns is helping<br />
consumers to make informed choices potentially<br />
contributing to the conservation of the<br />
environment. Ecolabeling consists of evaluating<br />
the production process with set environmental<br />
standards by independent third parties.<br />
If the process fulfills requirements, the producer<br />
or marketer can use the ecolabel in its<br />
marketing and the consumer knows that the<br />
product was produced sustainably. Producers<br />
can often obtain premium prices for these<br />
products.<br />
Sustainable supply chains are key<br />
For the seafood industry today, this means<br />
that companies have to guarantee sustainable<br />
seafood, i.e. only harvesting species of fish<br />
that are in abundant supply, caught using environmentally<br />
friendly methods and respecting<br />
human rights.<br />
Companies are also realizing that building<br />
a sustainable supply chain has the potential<br />
to bring new clients and success. Tetley Tea<br />
(Tata Global Beverages) is growing tea sustainably<br />
and its campaign where smallholder<br />
farmers and tea estate workers post items<br />
about their daily lives and work and communicate<br />
with customers has been a great success.<br />
Tata Global Beverages first identified<br />
the need to develop a sustainable supply chain<br />
following disruptions in availability and prices<br />
of its tea supply. It now seeks to certify an increasing<br />
part of its tea supply under the Rainforest<br />
Alliance certification, which meets environmental,<br />
social and economic standards.<br />
With more food needed to feed a growing<br />
population and ever-increasing environmental<br />
challenges ranging from water scarcity to herbicide<br />
resistance, the food and beverages industry<br />
is leading the way to help set standards<br />
for sustainable agriculture. Nestlé and Unilever<br />
are among them. Unilever reported faster<br />
growth for its brands with a sustainability purpose<br />
compared to the rest of the business,<br />
and these brands contributed nearly half of<br />
the firm’s total growth in 2015. Nestlé has set<br />
specific requirements for palm oil, paper and<br />
board, sugar, soy, cocoa, coffee, diary, fish,<br />
seafood, meat, poultry, eggs, vanilla and hazelnuts,<br />
and sources 43% of these commodities<br />
from sustainable sources in 2015.<br />
More transparency in the apparel industry<br />
After the tragic collapse of the Rana Plaza<br />
factory building in Bangladesh in April 2013,<br />
many global fashion companies reacted and<br />
signed the Bangladesh Accord with the Bangladeshi<br />
government and workers’ trade<br />
unions to make factories safe, and global<br />
brands agreed to monitor how the factories<br />
supplying their goods are run.<br />
The difficulty is that the fashion industry<br />
constantly moves its supply chain to new locations<br />
and suppliers use unapproved outsourcing.<br />
Recently, a BBC investigation revealed<br />
unethical practices in the Turkish textile<br />
industry, involving child workers. The companies<br />
involved claimed these practices were<br />
contrary to their code of conduct and that they<br />
happened in unapproved source factories.<br />
As with the food industry, raw materials<br />
such as cotton or processes such as dyeing<br />
can be performed in a sustainable way. Fair<br />
trade cotton labels appear on garments or are<br />
developed as lines of products.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —47<br />
To date, the industry still lacks transparency,<br />
but fair cotton standards and labels have<br />
emerged and companies have developed<br />
governance standards to foster sustainability.<br />
In the future, we are likely to see new brands<br />
emerge that will reinvent the business model,<br />
using recycled or recyclable materials, or better<br />
manufacturing standards.<br />
Reshaping the automotive industry<br />
If we apply sustainability to the automobile industry<br />
and the fight against climate change<br />
and pollution in this case, we can expect millennials<br />
to favor electric cars over diesel cars<br />
and shared cars over owned cars.<br />
The emission scandal involving Volkswagen<br />
in 2015 has changed the automotive industry.<br />
Traditional automakers are in private<br />
discussions about the end of diesel in ten<br />
years. Stricter emissions testing leaves no<br />
choice for the traditional carmakers but to engage<br />
in electric cars. Developments in technology<br />
companies such as Google or new entrants<br />
such as Tesla are pushing car companies<br />
to already act today. This year, the manufacturers<br />
have revealed ambitious electric<br />
auto development programs. Daimler raised<br />
its capex program at the start of the year and<br />
will develop premium electric cars, which is a<br />
segment dominated by Tesla at the moment.<br />
Continental, a supplier to German original<br />
equipment manufacturers (OEMs), also just<br />
announced a step-up in capex. Volkswagen<br />
has announced that, by 2025, 25% of its vehicles<br />
will be electric. BMW was among the<br />
first to launch electric vehicles. Companies<br />
have recognized the need to spend money now<br />
and in the years to come.<br />
Autonomous driving is another development.<br />
More and more features are being added<br />
to cars, from autonomous parking to semiautonomous<br />
driving. While legislation hurdles<br />
still have to be passed, we can envisage fully<br />
autonomous driving becoming a reality in the<br />
next decade or so. Given that millennials have<br />
already adopted sharing behaviors, autonomous<br />
driving will facilitate the development of<br />
the sharing model for cars. Again, traditional<br />
OEMs have recognized this development and<br />
are acquiring companies in the sharing car<br />
market to offer such services themselves.<br />
Growth through sustainability<br />
economy. We see spending diverted away<br />
from traditional retail products. The sportswear<br />
industry is benefiting strongly as sports<br />
items have become part of everyday wear in<br />
the search for health and wellness. Eating<br />
smart and from organic or local sources instead<br />
of eating food produced through chemically<br />
polluting-intensive agricultural practices<br />
or industrial processing has led to the development<br />
of specialty grocers such as Whole<br />
Foods or Sprouts Farmers Market. The traditional<br />
food retailers have also evolved to address<br />
this trend, and have captured a bigger<br />
share of the natural/organic industry in recent<br />
years. Smaller brands are appearing in the<br />
staples industry and gaining market share. In<br />
the healthcare industry, millennials are embracing<br />
alternative medicine rather than conventional<br />
medical treatments and prescription<br />
drugs. Natural remedies and alternative medicines<br />
feel safer and cleaner and are more in<br />
line with millennials’ values.<br />
Millennials are an influential and rapidly<br />
growing consumer market. Established industries<br />
must now adapt their business models if<br />
they want millennials on board. Companies<br />
must deliver good social and environmental<br />
performance and engage in sustainable practices<br />
or their future growth could be at risk.<br />
New companies are being created to embrace<br />
new opportunities.<br />
Julie Saussier<br />
Research Analyst<br />
+41 44 333 12 56<br />
julie.saussier-clement@credit-suisse.com<br />
“Sharing instead<br />
of consuming leads to<br />
the development of<br />
the sharing economy.”<br />
Julie Saussier<br />
More generally, this search for sustainable<br />
behavior is pushing millennials to adopt new<br />
consumer habits, thus opening up new growth<br />
opportunities. Sharing instead of consuming<br />
is leading to the development of the sharing
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —48<br />
FEEDING FUTURE GENERATIONS<br />
How weather affects agriculture and what IBM can do with precision weather forecasts to help farmers. Source: IBM<br />
INCREASING CROP YIELDS<br />
90%<br />
of all crop losses are due to weather.<br />
Weather-related crop damage could be<br />
reduced by 25% using predictive weather<br />
modeling and precision agriculture techniques.<br />
PRECISION AGRICULTURE<br />
IBM is using data to help farmers be more<br />
efficient in their operations and make more precise<br />
decisions about planting, growing, harvesting<br />
and transporting crops, leading to better price<br />
points and a stable supply chain.<br />
WEATHER MODELING<br />
DEEP THUNDER<br />
IBM’s Deep Thunder is a service that<br />
provides a hyperlocal forecast up to<br />
36 hours in advance with 90% accuracy.<br />
SENSORS<br />
GROWING<br />
70%<br />
of fresh water worldwide is<br />
used for agriculture purposes.<br />
If farmers know when and where<br />
it’s going to rain they can better<br />
schedule their irrigation and<br />
know when they should put down<br />
fertilizer, to avoid runoff.
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —49<br />
Farmer<br />
CTOs<br />
Farmers are among the most prominent<br />
adopters of robotic technologies. New<br />
applications using the Internet of Things (IoT),<br />
Big Data and robotics may well revolutionize<br />
the agricultural sector in the next ten years.<br />
This could help to solve the current mismatch<br />
between rising demand for food and limited<br />
arable land capacity.<br />
TRANSPORTATION<br />
50%<br />
of food ready for harvest never<br />
reaches the consumers mouth.<br />
By understanding the effect of weather<br />
on transportation networks, companies<br />
can make better decisions on which<br />
routes will be the fastest to transport<br />
their food.<br />
THE IMPACT<br />
As farmers reduce waste<br />
and increase crop yields,<br />
consumers will feel the<br />
positive economic impact<br />
at the grocery store.<br />
In the past, a farmer was seen as someone who loves nature and<br />
leads a strenuous, rather solitary life with little connection to the<br />
outside world. Furthermore, farmers were often considered to be<br />
highly critical of progress. Today, however, automation and digitization<br />
are becoming increasingly important in farming – a vital and<br />
essential element to solve problems in the agricultural sector. From<br />
vertical farming, where fruits and vegetables are digitally monitored<br />
and grown in artificial greenhouses, to vast farmlands that are connected<br />
to the Internet using sensors, robots and Big Data solutions<br />
are used to reduce costs and improve crop yields. Furthermore, digital<br />
farming can also help to cultivate new areas of farmland. In future,<br />
therefore, farmers look set to become the chief technology officers<br />
(CTOs) of agriculture.<br />
Food availability constraints ask for new solutions<br />
Illustration: IBM, C3, The Noun Project<br />
The United Nations (UN) predicts that the global population will rise<br />
from 7.3 billion today to 9.7 billion in 2050. The UN Food and Agriculture<br />
Organization (FAO) predicts that this growth would require increasing<br />
overall food production by about 70%, as the growing middle class<br />
places increased demand on food products. Demand for livestock,<br />
dairy products and other commodities is highly correlated to higher<br />
income in the developing countries. There is a clear need to further<br />
improve the efficiency of farming existing arable land and thus increase<br />
output. However, arable land is concentrated in Oceania and the USA,<br />
creating a major mismatch with where the global population is. For<br />
example, food availability in China is increasingly constrained, and >
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 —50<br />
efficiency improvements alone cannot solve the problem. Cultivating<br />
new arable land is important as well.<br />
Robotics and drones for growers<br />
The increasing strain on food supply, the availability and cost of farm<br />
workers, the challenges and complexities of farm labor, shrinking<br />
farmlands, climate change and the growth of indoor farming all argue<br />
in favor of increasingly employing robots in agriculture. Recent progress<br />
in making processing power cheaper, combined with artificial<br />
intelligence and the increasing learning power of machines, enables<br />
a new kind of e-farming.<br />
While milking systems are already widely deployed, we believe the<br />
demand for driverless tractors or semiautonomous vehicles, synced<br />
vehicles and processing equipment as well as smart agriculture applications<br />
such as traceability or swarm robots for the harvest season<br />
could increase exponentially because of the expected momentum in<br />
innovation. For instance, drones can be used for observation (security)<br />
and to detect areas where crops are failing to grow. In the latter<br />
case, the drones would call collectively programmed swarm robots<br />
to protect or recover the affected areas. According to a report from<br />
Tractica (“Agricultural Robots,” July 2015), annual shipments of agricultural<br />
robots are likely to reach 992,000 worldwide by 2024, up<br />
from just 33,000 in 2015. Tractica forecasts that some of the largest<br />
application segments will include unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or<br />
drones) for agricultural purposes, soil management robots, material<br />
management robots, driverless tractors and dairy management robots.<br />
Agritechnology in Africa, a new growth area<br />
Africa is said to have a quarter of the world’s arable land, but 80% of<br />
it is underutilized or simply lies idle. Most of the remaining 20% is in<br />
the hands of small-scale peasant farmers that are unfamiliar with<br />
commercial farming to improve production. There are a multitude of<br />
projects in Africa that focus on improving crop yields and cultivating<br />
new farmland with the help of information technology. The bottleneck<br />
so far is access to the Internet in rural areas. However, research firm<br />
McKinsey estimates that Africa will triple its Internet penetration<br />
to over 50% – the equivalent of 600 million regular Internet users –<br />
by 2025.<br />
Projects such as IBM’s EZ Farm use Big Data and the IoT to provide<br />
farmers and water service providers with insights into current<br />
and predicted water and soil moisture levels via smartphone applications.<br />
As part of this project, farms are equipped with cheap water<br />
tanks, soil moisture and infrared light sensors to monitor the health<br />
of plants, resulting in higher yields and lower farming costs. Smartphone<br />
applications from other firms such as M-Farm, iCow, Farm-<br />
Drive, WeFarm or MbeguChoice offer access to education (such as<br />
feeding practices or disease control), provide better, drought-tolerant<br />
seed varieties and give financing and troubleshooting support. The<br />
investments for digital farming are increasingly coming from outside<br />
of Africa. For instance, Chinese companies have acquired farmland<br />
in Congo, Mozambique and Angola and are using IT to cultivate new<br />
farmland in these areas.<br />
Precision farming increases efficiency<br />
John Deere, a leader of high-tech machinery in the agriculture sector,<br />
is taking the IoT into the field and boosting efficiencies with the<br />
help of SAP’s Big Data solutions. Sensors on the John Deere equipment<br />
help farmers to manage their fleet and decrease downtime of<br />
their tractors and save fuel. The information is combined with historical<br />
and real-time weather data, soil conditions, crop features and<br />
many other kinds of data. The so-called precision farming hardware<br />
market (using displays, GPS, yield monitors and sensors) is expected<br />
to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11.7% between 2015<br />
and 2020 and reach USD 4.8 billion, according to research firm<br />
MarketsandMarkets. The potential benefits of software application in<br />
farming – such as higher yields, low input waste, reduced financial<br />
losses – could turn out to be very high. The FAO expects that precision<br />
farming could lift crop yields by 70% by 2050 and thus make a<br />
valuable contribution to feeding the world.<br />
Uwe Neumann<br />
Research Analyst<br />
+41 44 334 56 45<br />
uwe.neumann@credit-suisse.com
GLOBAL INVESTOR 1.17 — 51<br />
Authors<br />
Lorenzo Biasio<br />
Research Analyst.........................................................<br />
lorenzo.biasio@credit-suisse.com..................................<br />
+41 44 333 14 79.......................................................<br />
Lorenzo Biasio is a research analyst in Global Equity<br />
and Credit Research at Credit Suisse, covering the<br />
healthcare sector. Prior to joining Credit Suisse in 2014,<br />
he was a management consultant in the pharma/<br />
healthcare space. Lorenzo holds a Master’s degree in<br />
Biology from ETH Zurich, Switzerland.<br />
> Pages 10, 13, 16, 27, 33, 36–37, 41–43, 48–50, 52–53, 58<br />
Uwe Neumann<br />
Research Analyst.........................................................<br />
uwe.neumann@credit-suisse.com.................................<br />
+41 44 334 56 45.......................................................<br />
Uwe Neumann is a senior research analyst in the Global<br />
Equity and Credit Research team at Credit Suisse<br />
Inter national Wealth Management, covering the telecom<br />
and technology sectors. He has 29 years of experience<br />
in the securities and banking business, holds a Master of<br />
Economics from the University of Constance, Germany,<br />
and is a CEFA Charterholder. > Page 03<br />
Julia Dumanskaya<br />
Research Analyst.........................................................<br />
julia.dumanskaya@credit-suisse.com.............................<br />
+41 44 333 92 83.......................................................<br />
Julia Dumanskaya is a research analyst in Economic<br />
Research at Credit Suisse, working in the Fundamental<br />
Macroeconomics team. She joined Credit Suisse in<br />
2011 and has five years of experience as a financial and<br />
research analyst in the Foreign Exchange team as<br />
well as in the Economic Research team. Julia holds an<br />
MA in Economics and Business Administration from<br />
the University of Zurich, Switzerland. > Pages 44–45<br />
Julie Saussier<br />
Research Analyst.........................................................<br />
julie.saussier-clement@credit-suisse.com......................<br />
+41 44 333 12 56.......................................................<br />
Julie Saussier is a senior research analyst in the Global<br />
Equity team, covering the consumer discretionary sector.<br />
She has 14 years of experience as a research analyst<br />
and joined Credit Suisse in 2015. She holds a Master’s<br />
degree in Business and Management from the University<br />
of Paris-Dauphine and a Master’s degree in Corporate<br />
Finance from the Emlyon Business School, France, and is<br />
a CFA Charterholder. > Pages 07, 11, 15, 22, 26, 30–32<br />
Reto Hess<br />
Research Analyst.........................................................<br />
reto.hess@credit-suisse.com........................................<br />
+41 44 334 56 24.......................................................<br />
Reto Hess is a senior research analyst at Credit Suisse<br />
International Wealth Management with 12 years of<br />
experience in equity research and investment management.<br />
He heads the Global Equity Research team and<br />
covers the European and US industrials sector. Further,<br />
Reto is a CFA and CAIA Charterholder and holds a Master<br />
of Science from the University of Zurich, Switzerland.<br />
> Pages 08–09, 12, 38–43, 59, 61<br />
Ulrich Kaiser<br />
Research Analyst.........................................................<br />
ulrich.kaiser@credit-suisse.com....................................<br />
+41 44 334 56 49.......................................................<br />
Ulrich Kaiser is a senior financial analyst of Credit Suisse in<br />
the International Wealth Management Division, covering<br />
the technology sector. He joined Credit Suisse in 1993 and<br />
has 28 years of experience in the securities and banking<br />
business. He received his Master of Economics from<br />
the University of Constance, Germany, and is a CEFA<br />
Charterholder. > Pages 17, 23, 44–47, 51, 60, 62<br />
Christine Schmid<br />
Head of Global Equity and Credit Research...................<br />
christine.schmid@credit-suisse.com..............................<br />
+41 44 334 56 43.......................................................<br />
Christine Schmid is Head of Global Equit and Credit<br />
Research at Credit Suisse International Wealth<br />
Management. She has 23 years of experience and covers<br />
the financials sector. She holds an MA in Economics<br />
from the University of Zurich and is a CFA Charterholder.<br />
> Pages 14, 34–35<br />
Fabian Waltert<br />
Research Analyst.........................................................<br />
fabian.waltert@credit-suisse.com..................................<br />
+41 44 333 25 57.......................................................<br />
Fabian Waltert is a senior economist at Credit Suisse<br />
International Wealth Management. He covers Swiss<br />
real estate and construction and holds a PhD in<br />
Economics from the University of Zurich, Switzerland.<br />
> Pages 14, 34–35<br />
Angus Muirhead<br />
Senior Portfolio Manager..............................................<br />
angus.muirhead@credit-suisse.com..............................<br />
+41 44 332 32 59.......................................................<br />
Angus Muirhead is a senior portfolio manager in the<br />
Thematic Equity team at Credit Suisse Asset Management.<br />
He joined the team in September 2016 and<br />
has 19 years of experience as an analyst and portfolio<br />
manager investing in the technology and healthcare<br />
sectors. He is currently responsible for the CS (Lux)<br />
Global Robotics Equity Fund, together with Dr. Patrick<br />
Kolb. Angus has a BA degree from Durham University<br />
in Modern Japanese Language and Business Studies,<br />
and is a CFA Charterholder. > Pages 17–19
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