e_Paper, Thursday, August 17, 2017

14
THURSDAY, AUGUST 17, 2017
DT
Opinion
A radical proposition to
de-escalate North Korea
Stepping away from inflammatory rhetoric. This is the concluding part of yesterday’s op-ed
Time to take action from the South?
REUTERS
This diplomatic conundrum has
the potential to be resolved with a
mutually assured draw-down. In
this scenario, Washington would
commit to a phased reduction in
troops along the DMZ, following
North Korea’s commitment to
phase out its nuclear weapons
program.
This phased and scheduled
draw-down would continue until
both sides are mutually assured
in one another’s fulfillment of
pledges.
Any draw-down would occur
with reassurances to US allies
in the region that its security
commitment to the region remains
unchanged. Additionally, North
Korea must feel secure that its
territorial integrity will remain
intact from any potential (however
unlikely) South Korean bid to
unify the peninsula with its vastly
superior military.
This effort should not be
read as appeasement, nor an
abandonment of its interests
in the region. To the contrary,
today’s capabilities are very
different than what they were in
willingness on the part of South
Koreans to depart previous
hawkish stances towards the
North, in favour of direct bilateral
talks. This is backed by polls that
show strong support (80% in
favour) towards the resumption
of talks for de-nuclearisation and
eventual reconciliation.
In an acknowledgment of these
realities, the US can begin to shift
its role from one of protector to
mediator.
It can remain the guarantor of
security and stability for its allies,
but from a reasonable distance.
This move would phase the US out
of the direct line of conflict, and
into the role of mediator at the
peace table.
There are three goals that can
be accomplished through this shift
in policy: 1) Reduce US tensions
with the North, 2) Support
opportunities for mediated
reconciliation between the North
and South, and 3) Remove the US
from the line of fire both along the
DMZ, and the homeland.
Considered together, these
policies aim to achieve an
• Samier Mansur
Since so much of what Kim
is after is dependent on
improved relations with
the US, there is leverage to
negotiate a meaningful peace with
North Korea. In this context, the
following four steps offer a path to
help alleviate the current tensions,
and set a trajectory for an eventual
reconciliation in the peninsula.
Reduce threat perceptions
The nuclear age is not the time to
engage in armed brinksmanship.
Each provocation brings with
it the very real possibility of
miscalculation. The graveyard of
history is replete full with wars
that began under such faulty
premises.
In the current scenario, North
Korea is like a caged beast that
feels provoked (warranted or not)
to the point that it has lashed
out in increasingly alarming
ways. Threats and repeated
demonstrations of force have not
worked for over half a century
with this regime.
To reduce the current threat
perception, it becomes necessary
to demonstrate restraint through
control of rhetoric and actions
that can be perceived as a threat
to the regime. These include
public statements made by US
officials and perhaps even a
reconsideration of this month’s
joint military exercises between
the US and South Korea (that are
said to have included decapitation
strike drills in the past), at least
until the ongoing tensions are
reduced.
Open bilateral talks
When Vice President Mike Pence
visited South Korea earlier this
year and warned the North that
the “era of strategic patience is
over” -- it missed the point that
strategic patience combined
with bilateral dialogue has, in
fact, helped the US secure peaceful
outcomes with nuclear rivals in
the past.
When Stalin’s Soviet Union
and Mao’s China pursued a path
of nuclear confrontation with the
US, the US adopted a policy of
restraint, and engaged in highlevel,
bilateral talks until mutual
agreements were reached.
The US secured a big win at
the UN Security Council this
month, which demonstrates its
continued ability to lead the global
community on the issue. If this
is coupled with a joint US-China
approach towards Pyongyang, it
The US has the opportunity to demonstrate responsible leadership once
again by being the example of restraint, stability, and calm it hopes to
achieve in the peninsula
would send a strong message that
its physical security and economic
potential are directly tied to its
commitment to regional peace.
Strategic patience combined
with skillful diplomacy has
worked for the US in the past and
can be leveraged in this current
situation just as effectively.
De-militarisation for denuclearisation
It’s worth asking the question:
To what extent are US interests
served with the continuation of its
military presence along the DMZ
for the past 64 years? Is it worth
the possibility of a nuclear war?
To complicate matters, the
current situation is reminiscent
of the chicken and egg scenario:
North Korea will not let up its
nuclear weapons program so long
as it feels threatened by the US,
while the US refuses to budge until
North Korea gives up its nuclear
program.
1950s: If North Korea violates the
agreement (which it has often
done in the past), or worse, takes
action against the South, the US
can, and should be in a position
to intervene locally with swift
precision.
Secretary of Defense Mattis’
recent statement warning against
any action that would threaten the
US or its allies is the appropriate
tone to convey in this regard.
Re-conceptualise and reconcile
Perhaps it’s time to take a step
back and reconsider the US’
broader role in the region.
Currently the US is caught
between an ally and a bad place.
To add complexity, there is some
sentiment among the Southern
ally that US military presence
along the DMZ comprises
prospects for an inter-Korea
reconciliation process.
The recent election of President
Moon Jae-in demonstrated a
immediate reduction of tension
and a long-term possibility of
peace. Fortunately, despite
the concerning rhetoric of the
past week, there are no visible
indications that a war is imminent.
There would be two telltale
signs of this: 1) The mass
evacuation of American citizens
and dependents along the DMZ;
and 2) a build-up of US military
presence in the region.
That said, the first step towards
peace is to step away from the
inflammatory rhetoric. The US has
the opportunity to demonstrate
responsible leadership once again
by being the example of restraint,
stability, and calm it hopes to
achieve in the peninsula.•
Samier Mansur is a writer, thinker, and
entrepreneur who is driven by ideas
and technologies that make this world
a happier, and more peaceful place.
This article first appeared on Huffington
Post.