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12-02-2018

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BUSINESS A.M. FEBRUARY, MONDAY <strong>12</strong> - SUNDAY 18, <strong>2018</strong><br />

FINANCE & INVESTMENT<br />

13<br />

Equities market loses 3.4% w-o-w on<br />

the back of sell-offs across sectors<br />

L-R: Remi Babalola, former minister of state for finance; Lateef Feyisitan of Alternative Capital Partners, and Obinna Ekwonwa, chief<br />

executive officer, Weco Systems International Limited, at the 15th CVL Leadership Symposium in Lagos<br />

Bank ratings volatility likely to subside in <strong>2018</strong><br />

as positive outlook outweighs negative - Fitch<br />

Steve Omanufeme<br />

Fitch Ratings has said the<br />

share of bank ratings with<br />

stable outlooks is at its highest<br />

level in recent years, suggesting<br />

that bank ratings will be less volatile<br />

in <strong>2018</strong>.<br />

It said the pace of rating changes slowed<br />

significantly in 2H17, and the numbers of<br />

upgrades and downgrades were almost<br />

equal. This is evident in its recent ratings<br />

of Nigerian banks as it affirmed First City<br />

Monument Bank Limited’s (FCMB) Long-<br />

Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B-’<br />

with a stable outlook<br />

This is ditto for Union, Wema and<br />

Sterling banks, which had stable outlooks.<br />

However FBN Holdings Plc. (FBNH) and<br />

First Bank of Nigeria Ltd (FBN) had negative<br />

outlooks. It affirmed First Bank’s Viability<br />

Ratings (VR) at ‘b-’ and the Support<br />

Ratings at ‘5’. The Long-Term National Ratings<br />

have been affirmed at ‘BB+(nga)’.<br />

Though negative outlooks still marginally<br />

outweighed positive outlooks at<br />

end-2017, it said the balance shifted as the<br />

share of positive outlooks almost doubled<br />

over the course of the year., adding that it<br />

was mainly due to revisions in Europe.<br />

The foremost rating agency noted<br />

the share of negative outlooks declined<br />

slightly, as outlooks tended to be stable<br />

following rating downgrades.<br />

“Outlooks are on balance positive in<br />

Europe but negative in the Middle East,<br />

Africa and emerging markets in the<br />

Americas.<br />

“We changed 65 bank Issuer Default<br />

Ratings in 2H17, down from a record<br />

high of 92 in 1H17. Downgrades were<br />

almost matched by upgrades - the first<br />

time since 1H14 that downgrades have<br />

not been significantly ahead,” it said.<br />

Regional rating trends were seen diverged,<br />

with developed markets showing<br />

a more positive dynamic than emerging<br />

markets and that upgrades were concentrated<br />

in Europe, where the economic<br />

recovery is improving banks’ operating environments,<br />

while most downgrades were<br />

in emerging markets, mainly in the Middle<br />

East, Africa and the Americas, mostly<br />

driven by sovereign downgrades.<br />

“Almost half of all bank-rating changes<br />

in 2H17 were driven by sovereign rating actions,<br />

which triggered 23 downgrades and<br />

six upgrades. Most of the sovereign-driven<br />

rating actions reflected revisions of our<br />

views on sovereign ability to provide support,<br />

notably in Qatar (nine downgrades),”<br />

it stressed.<br />

Business a.m<br />

THE BEARISH<br />

TREND that began<br />

in the previous<br />

week was sustained<br />

this week as the benchmark<br />

index further slid 3.4<br />

percent week on week (W-o-W)<br />

to settle at 43,<strong>12</strong>7.92 points<br />

while YTD return moderated<br />

to <strong>12</strong>.8 percent.<br />

Accordingly, market capitalisation<br />

lost N541.9 billion in<br />

value to settle at N15.4 trillion.<br />

Sell-offs were recorded across<br />

small to large cap stocks with<br />

losses in DANGCEM, FBNH<br />

and GUARANTY as the major<br />

drags to performance.<br />

However, activity level was<br />

mixed as average volume rose<br />

35.4 percent<br />

to 885.1 million<br />

units<br />

while average<br />

value<br />

fell 13.8 percent<br />

to N4.9<br />

billion. The<br />

top traded<br />

stocks by<br />

volume were<br />

STERLING<br />

(1.8bn),<br />

S K Y E<br />

(282.m) and LASACO (266.9m)<br />

while STERLING (N3.9bn),<br />

ZENITH (N2.2bn) and GUAR-<br />

ANTY (N1.7bn) were the top<br />

traded stocks by value.<br />

The NSEASI started the<br />

week on a negative note and<br />

this was sustained till the end<br />

of the week. On Monday, the<br />

ASI shed 45bps on account of<br />

losses in market bellwethers<br />

- DANGCEM, UBA and FBNH -<br />

and further weakened 87bps on<br />

Tuesday following sell-offs in<br />

banking stocks, especially ZE-<br />

NITH, FBNH and GUARANTY.<br />

On Wednesday, the benchmark<br />

index shaved 77bps<br />

on the back of profit taking<br />

in DANGCEM, NIGERIAN<br />

BREWERIES and STANBIC<br />

while price depreciation in<br />

Consumer and Banking sector<br />

counters dragged the ASI<br />

49bps lower on Thursday. The<br />

market closed the week in the<br />

red, falling 34bps on Friday;<br />

hence a decline of 3.4 percent<br />

was recorded W-o-W.<br />

Performance across sectors<br />

was bearish as all indices<br />

closed in the red. The industrial<br />

goods index led laggards,<br />

down 3.5 percent on account<br />

of losses in CCNN (-6.9%) and<br />

DANGCEM (-4.1%). Following<br />

closely was the banking index,<br />

which shed 3.4 percent due to<br />

sell pressure on SKYE (-25.2%)<br />

and WEMA (-14.0%).<br />

Similarly, the consumer<br />

goods index fell 2.6 percent<br />

on account of profit taking in<br />

NESTLE (-5.9%) and NIGERI-<br />

AN BREWERIES (-5.3%), while<br />

the oil & gas and insurance<br />

indices were dragged 1.3 percent<br />

and 0.7 percent lower by<br />

price depreciation in MOBIL<br />

(-7.6%) and WAPIC (-14.7%)<br />

respectively.<br />

Investor sentiment as measured<br />

by market breadth (advance/decline<br />

ratio), weakened<br />

significantly to 0.3x from 1.2x<br />

recorded the previous week as<br />

22 stocks advanced relative to 63<br />

stocks that declined.<br />

The best performing stocks<br />

for the week were LINKASSURE<br />

(+25.0%), CAVERTON (+21.0)<br />

and PRESTIGE (+16.7%) while<br />

HMARKINS (-27.1%) SKYE<br />

(-25.2%) and UNIC (-21.7%) led<br />

decliners. Although the market<br />

closed the week negative, the<br />

analysts say, “we expect to see<br />

a rebound as a result of bargain<br />

hunting by investors as well as<br />

positive expectations for the full<br />

year earnings season.”<br />

Naira stable across windows despite drop in oil prices<br />

Remilekun Davies &<br />

Ademola Badmus<br />

Nigeria’s foreign<br />

exchange<br />

market, which<br />

plays host to various<br />

kinds of players, each<br />

contributing to the challenge<br />

in the multiplicity of rates<br />

and the ever-widening gulf<br />

between the official and the<br />

unofficial rates, produced a<br />

relatively stable naira at the<br />

official and parallel windows<br />

last week, business a.m. currency<br />

monitoring across<br />

markets shows.<br />

In line with historical<br />

trend, at the start of the week,<br />

the CBN injected US$100.0<br />

million via the wholesale<br />

SMIS intervention window<br />

into the system in order to<br />

maintain stability across all<br />

segments of the foreign exchange<br />

market.<br />

Accordingly marginal<br />

movements were recorded<br />

at various segments of the<br />

market during the week despite<br />

drop in oil prices.<br />

FX rate at the interbank<br />

market weakened N1.47 during<br />

the week from N332.90/<br />

US$1.00 last week to settle at<br />

N334.37/US$1.00 on Friday.<br />

Similarly, the CBN’s FX rate<br />

opened the week at N305.80/<br />

US$1.00, depreciated 5 kobo<br />

to N305.85/US$1.00 by midweek<br />

and traded flat till the<br />

end of the week.<br />

However, at the I & E FX<br />

window, the naira traded<br />

at N360.36/US$1.00 at the<br />

start of the week, which was<br />

a 14 kobo depreciation from<br />

the previous Friday’s close of<br />

N360.<strong>12</strong>/US$1.00. This rate<br />

was sustained till Wednesday<br />

but reversed on Thursday<br />

with the naira appreciating<br />

by 27 kobo to N360.09/<br />

US$1.00. This rate was maintained<br />

on Friday, presenting<br />

a three kobo appreciation<br />

week on week.<br />

At the parallel market, an<br />

unauthorized window, but<br />

plays a prominent role in<br />

access to forex, there were<br />

some variations in the price<br />

at which the naira exchange<br />

for the dollar.<br />

In all, the naira traded<br />

flat at N363.00/US$1.00 all<br />

through the week across<br />

various areas in Lagos, the<br />

commercial capital of Nigeria,<br />

visited by business a.m.<br />

reporters who monitored<br />

the market<br />

Activity level in the I &E<br />

window weakened relative<br />

to the previous Thursday as<br />

total volume of transactions<br />

fell 32.4 percent week on<br />

week to US$716.6 million<br />

from US$1.1 billion recorded<br />

the prior week.<br />

At the FMDQ OTC futures<br />

market, the total value of<br />

open contracts of the naira<br />

settled OTC futures closed<br />

the week at US$3,320.75<br />

million (08/<strong>02</strong>/<strong>2018</strong>),<br />

US$34.0 million higher than<br />

US$3,286.86 million in the<br />

prior week. The APR <strong>2018</strong><br />

instrument was the most<br />

subscribed with a total value<br />

of US$657.9 million while the<br />

JAN 2019 contract was the<br />

least subscribed with total<br />

value of US$10.0 million.<br />

Analysts say despite decline<br />

in crude oil prices during<br />

the week, they maintain a<br />

positive outlook on the CBN’s<br />

ability to sustain its intervention<br />

in order to maintain<br />

stability in the FX market.<br />

“Furthermore, we anticipate<br />

a Eurobond issuance in<br />

the first quarter of the year<br />

and we believe this could<br />

further buoy the size of Nigeria’s<br />

external reserves in<br />

the near term,” said analysts<br />

at Afrinvest.

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