#39_1-8

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No.39 JUNE 21, 2018
TOPIC OF THE DAY
WWW.DAY.KIEV.UA
By Alla DUBROVYK-ROKHOVA, The Day
The Trans-Anatolian Natural
Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which
will transport gas from
Azerbaijan to Turkey and then
to Europe, was opened at a
ceremony in the Turkish province of
Eskisehir.
“Today is an historic day. The
TANAP project is an outcome of multilateral
cooperation as well as of political
will. It is especially gratifying
that we are launching it ahead of
schedule. It will be Europe’s largest
gas pipeline. We are planning to make
the first delivery of gas through this
pipeline to Greece in June 2019,”
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
said, commenting on the opening
of TANAP.
In addition to Erdogan, President
Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine,
President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan,
President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia,
leader of the Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus Mustafa Akinci,
energy ministers of several countries,
and top executives of energy
companies, also attended the ceremony.
Incidentally, Maros Sefcovic,
Vice President of the Commission for
the Energy Union, was conspicuous
for his absence, although TANAP is
part of the Southern Gas Corridor
whose main objective is to strengthen
the European Union’s energy security
and reduce dependence on gas
supplies from Russia.
“It is energy security, also for
our state, as well as competitiveness
and diversification of gas supplies
to Ukraine,” President Poroshenko
tweeted. He emphasized that Ukraine
hopes to receive TANAP gas through
Bulgaria and Romania.
It will be recalled that Azerbaijan
and Turkey made a deal to build this
gas pipeline in June 2012, after which
Ukraine expressed a desire to take
part in the construction, but Azerbaijan
announced soon after that it
was not interested in this.
The Day spoke with Mykhailo
HONCHAR, president of the Strategy
XXI Center for Global Studies,
about TANAP’s prospects and role in
the energy security of Ukraine.
“Although ‘a red ribbon was cut’
yesterday in the Turkish province of
Eskisehir, the prospects of this natural
gas supply corridor are rather
bleak and remote.
“The point is there is a marked difference
between the concept and the
present-day shape of TANAP and the
Southern Gas Corridor as a whole.
“Firstly, it will be impossible to
reach the rated capacity immediately.
Moreover, the current negotiations
show that TANAP can ensure gas
supplies to Turkey only. Europe is out
of the question so far, for this requires
the construction of the Trans-Adriatic
Gas Pipeline, on which Azerbaijanis
are working now. But it will carry
Azerbaijani gas to southern Italy.
“The total rated capacity of
TANAP is 31 billion cubic meters of
natural gas. They are going to start
building its first stage with a capacity
of 16 billion cubic meters, with
6 billion going to the Turkish market
and 10 billion to southern Italy, but –
let me say it again – after 2020, when
the Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline is
built.
“Besides, the Azerbaijani State-
Run Oil Company, the main project
implementer, aims to supply about one
billion cubic meters of natural gas to
Bulgaria.”
What is the place of Ukraine in
these plans?
“We are not present at this stage.
And not only we.”
Then what was the subject of
Poroshenko-Aliyev negotiations?
“A bomb went off in
Brussels,butnobody
noticed it”
Mykhailo HONCHAR on why he thinks that
the prospects of the Southern Gas Corridor, which is intended
to strengthen the European Union’s energy security, are bleak
“They discussed prospects. Remote
prospects. Ideally, if things go
as planned, Ukraine will use this corridor
of Azerbaijani gas supplies after
2025 – on condition that Azerbaijan
increases gas production. It is
another important moment.”
No less important is the Russian
factor – to be more exact, the Kremlin’s
opposition to non-Gazprom gas
pipelines. To what extent is it likely
that Russia may hinder carrying out
the Southern Gas Corridor project?
“The total supplies of Azerbaijani
gas to southern Italy will be a
meager – by the European market’s
yardstick – 10 billion cubic meters.
This pales in comparison with the
450 billion cubic meters the European
market consumes annually. But while
TANAP is still in its infancy, Russia
is already saying there should be
Russian gas from the Turkish stream
in the Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline in
accordance with the EU’s Third Energy
Package. What is the Jesuitical
essence of Russia’s move? It torpedoes
the Third Energy Package by all
means, but in this case it is trying to
push its gas into the Azerbaijani gas
pipeline, taking advantage of the European
law.
“And I am not sure at all that the
10 billion cubic meters of natural
gas, which are supposed to reach
southern Italy, will be of Azerbaijani
origin from the Shah Deniz gas field.
Most likely, Russia will pressure
Azerbaijan, and there will be a 50-50
ratio in the pipeline.
“Russia is doing its best to minimize
the supplies of non-Russian gas
to the European Union. It is being assisted
in this matter by such countries
as Germany, Austria, and
France, which, ‘for some reason,’
pay no attention to non-Russian gas
supplies. Take, for example, Azerbaijani
gas. They knew it would come!
They even drew up the Nabucco project
for this purpose on the initiative
of an Austrian company. But, ‘for
some reason,’ Nabucco ‘died,’ giving
way to a Turkish project. But, ‘for
some reason’ again, neither the Austrians
nor the Germans are saying, as
our President Poroshenko is, that
they would be glad to receive Azerbaijani
gas. They are not saying that
it is necessary to build a system of
convectors or even a new pipeline, as
part of the TANAP project, so that
this gas could run not to the ‘blind alley’
called southern Italy, an agrarian
region without any major industrial
consumption, but to Baumgarten
in the center of Europe [Baumgarten
has one of Europe’s three
largest gas distribution centers and
is an international gas trade hub. –
Ed.]. In this way, this gas could also
reach Germany. But both the Germans
and the Austrians remain tightlipped
about this option.”
In other words, you are saying
TANAP could be an alternative to
Nord Stream 2?
“Quite right, although it would be
more exact to say: the Southern Gas
Corridor, which is a project and a top
priority of the European Union, is an
alternative to both the Turkish Stream
and Nord Stream 2, while TANAP is
its basic part – 31 billion cubic meters.
“The total capacity of the Southern
Gas Corridor is 60 billion cubic meters.
But it will only be worthwhile to
reflect on the possibility of this when
the project of transporting Turkmenian
gas across the Caspian Sea
gathers momentum.
“This is part of the original idea.
The Turks also want TANAP to transport
Turkmenian gas.
“But Russia strongly opposes
this, and Azerbaijan is not exactly interested,
frankly speaking, in having
a rival in the shape of Turkmenian
gas. The reason is clear: Turkmenistan
is the world’s fourth
largest depository of natural gas after
Iran, Russia, and Qatar.”
What did you mean when you
said “for some reason” three times,
when explaining why the leading EU
countries do not support the gas
pipeline projects initiated by the EU?
“Gazprom has managed to corrupt
the European Commission. The
ample proof of this is discontinuation
of the inquiry into Gazprom’s abuses
on the European market, which
was launched in 2011. We know that
Gazprom came through unscathed on
May 25.
“I said as far back as 2015: a bomb
went off in Brussels, but nobody noticed
it. This abortive inquiry caused
a scandal.
“It is a victory of Russian gas
corruption in Brussels and of corruption
in the capitals of major EU
member states which have miraculously
forgotten about European priorities,
including Nabucco which has
Photo by Mykola LAZARENKO
“ANKARA AND BAKU ARE WRITING THE ENERGY HISTORY OF THE 21st CENTURY,” AZERBAIJAN’S PRESIDENT ILHAM
ALIYEV SAID AT THE TANAP OPENING CEREMONY IN TURKEY
even been officially closed, but enthuse
over the Russian-backed South
Stream and Nord Stream 2. Hungary
is actively examining the possibility
of supporting the second stage of the
Turkish Gas Pipeline. The same applies
to Bulgaria, whose president
and premier suddenly paid official visits
to Moscow in the course of one
week to meet Putin. Following this,
Putin condescendingly told the Bulgarians
that the second stage of the
Turkish Gas Pipeline will be called
Bulgarian Gas Pipeline.
“In principle, there is nothing
strange about Bulgaria, for, out of all
the EU countries, it may be called the
one most affected by post-Soviet corruption.
Unfortunately, it has not
yet pulled out of that quagmire.
“Hungary is also, in principle,
a phenomenon of post-Soviet corruption.
“But the countries that are trying
to teach us how to live – Germany,
Austria, and France, – three
refined countries of Western Europe,
are forgetting their European
priorities. Well, if you love Russian
gas streams so much, why don’t you
recall the option of supplying Turkmenian
gas to Europe through Russia,
using the Ukrainian gas transportation
system? I think the only
answer is corruption.”
As you regard gas and its supply
routes as a geopolitical security factor
rather than an economic category
(a marketable product), I cannot
help asking you about your personal
opinion of Angela Merkel’s position
on the impossibility of Russia’s
reinstatement in the G8 elite
club. Why does Germany behave so
contradictorily: the “green light” to
Nord Stream 2 and the “red light” to
Putin in the G8?
“The answer will sound rude and
perhaps even vulgar. Germany was
paid for supporting Nord Stream 2 but
not for Russia’s reinstatement in the
G8. As the Americans say, ‘it’s nothing
personal, just business.’
“I don’t mean the chancellor personally.
But we know very well that
in such countries as Germany the position
of the topmost leader is of
paramount importance, even though,
on the whole, the policy of Germany
is the sum of the influences of various
actors. Those who are now running
the show there are oriented to
Russia in terms of not only business,
but also political relations.
“We are going to see Russia activate
behind-the-scenes contacts with
G7 leaders in order to gain support not
only from Italy and the US for the return
of Putin to the negotiating table.
“The Kremlin needs support from
European heavyweights in this matter.
Bu it is either France or Germany,
or, still better, both of them. That’s
why the Russians activate their
Moscow-Paris and Moscow-Berlin
lines. The arguments are predictable:
‘You in Berlin and Paris have always
favored dialog, even in the difficult
times of the Cold War, and dialog is
the format of the Group of Eight.’
“Frankly speaking, G7 decisions
are absolutely ‘impotent.’ We already
felt it last year, when a communique
on increasing sanctions against Russia
was announced. So what? Only the
US and the UK expanded the list of
sanctions. What is more, Britain did
so only after the Skripals were poisoned.
The rest of the countries were,
on the contrary, speaking of easing the
sanctions in spite of what Russia was
doing. Putin deserves being brought
to the Hague-based International
Criminal Court for war crimes and
crimes against humanity for the 2016
Aleppo bombing alone.
“I am sure the Russians will be
mocking at the G7. For Putin said
clearly: we did not quit, we were not
let in.”