Nordic power market - Fortum
Nordic power market - Fortum
Nordic power market - Fortum
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- a leading energy company<br />
in the <strong>Nordic</strong> area<br />
Presentation for investors<br />
May 2006
Disclaimer<br />
This presentation does not constitute an invitation to<br />
underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or<br />
dispose of any <strong>Fortum</strong> shares.<br />
Past performance is no guide to future performance,<br />
and persons needing advice should consult an<br />
independent financial adviser.<br />
2
• <strong>Fortum</strong> today<br />
• <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
• Russia<br />
• Financials / outlook<br />
• Supplementary material<br />
3
<strong>Fortum</strong>'s strategy<br />
4<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong> focuses on the <strong>Nordic</strong> and Baltic Rim<br />
<strong>market</strong>s as a platform for profitable growth<br />
Become the leading<br />
<strong>power</strong> and heat<br />
company<br />
Become the<br />
energy supplier<br />
of choice<br />
Benchmark business performance
Towards an open European <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
1990's 2000 - 2010 -<br />
EU Directive: Market liberalisation, i.e.,<br />
free choice of supplier<br />
EU Commission Integration of national<br />
<strong>power</strong> strategy: <strong>market</strong>s through regional<br />
<strong>market</strong>s into one European<br />
<strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
5<br />
• Market-based development<br />
• Increased competition<br />
• Increased efficiency
A leading <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> and heat company<br />
Nr 1 Nr 2<br />
6<br />
Distribution<br />
Power<br />
generation<br />
Heat Electricity sales
Presence in focus <strong>market</strong> areas<br />
<strong>Nordic</strong><br />
Generation 51.2 TWh<br />
Electricity sales 58.2 TWh<br />
Distribution cust. 1.4 mill.<br />
Electricity cust. 1.2 mill.<br />
Heat sales 19.4 TWh<br />
7<br />
Poland<br />
Heat sales 3.9 TWh<br />
Electricity sales 20 GWh<br />
NW Russia<br />
(in associated companies)<br />
Generation ~6 TWh<br />
Heat production ~10 TWh<br />
Baltic countries<br />
Heat sales 1.2 TWh<br />
Distribution cust. 22,000
Operations throughout the entire <strong>power</strong> and heat<br />
energy chain<br />
Generation<br />
Portfolio Mgmt<br />
& Trading<br />
Service<br />
Heat / Värme<br />
Distribution<br />
Markets<br />
8<br />
• One of Europe’s most efficient generators with an approx. 14%<br />
<strong>market</strong> share of <strong>Nordic</strong> consumption<br />
• Best-in-class physical and financial <strong>market</strong> operations<br />
• Efficient operation and maintenance services for<br />
industry and energy companies<br />
• <strong>Nordic</strong> leader in district heating with strong industrial cooperation<br />
and a developing presence in the Baltics and<br />
Poland<br />
• Leading <strong>Nordic</strong> distribution company with 1.4 million<br />
customers in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Estonia<br />
• Wide product offering for 1.2 million business and private<br />
electricity sales customers
Power and heat production in <strong>Fortum</strong><br />
<strong>Fortum</strong>’s <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> generation<br />
Other 2%<br />
Peat 1%<br />
Biomass 2%<br />
Coal 3%<br />
9<br />
Hydro <strong>power</strong> 42%<br />
Nuclear <strong>power</strong> 50%<br />
51.2 TWh in 2005<br />
Total generation capacity 11,136 MW<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong>’s <strong>Nordic</strong> heat production<br />
Biomass<br />
fuels 24%<br />
Other 11%<br />
Waste 6%<br />
Peat 7%<br />
Coal 17%<br />
Heat<br />
pumps,<br />
electricity<br />
16%<br />
Oil 10%<br />
Natural gas 9%<br />
20.6 TWh in 2005<br />
Total production capacity 8,252 MW
Strong dividend growth<br />
Dividend per share<br />
EUR<br />
0.13<br />
1998<br />
Total ~ 2,750 MEUR<br />
0.18 0.23 0.26<br />
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004<br />
10<br />
0.31 0.42<br />
0.58<br />
1.12<br />
0.58 0.54<br />
2005*<br />
* 0.58 from continuing operations<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong>'s aim is to pay a<br />
dividend corresponding to<br />
an average payout ratio of<br />
50% to 60%
Excellent share performance<br />
Share price<br />
Index<br />
500<br />
450<br />
400<br />
350<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
11<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong><br />
Dow Jones 600<br />
0<br />
1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06<br />
Market value<br />
EUR billion<br />
3.4<br />
31 Dec<br />
2000<br />
4.0<br />
31 Dec<br />
2001<br />
5.3<br />
31 Dec<br />
2002<br />
6.9<br />
31 Dec<br />
2003<br />
11.8<br />
31 Dec<br />
2004<br />
13.1<br />
31 Mar<br />
2005<br />
-3.3<br />
Neste Oil<br />
as<br />
dividends<br />
17.9<br />
3 May<br />
2006
• <strong>Fortum</strong> today<br />
• <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
• Russia<br />
• Financials / outlook<br />
• Supplementary material<br />
12
The wholesale <strong>market</strong> is liquid and <strong>Nordic</strong>,<br />
but retail <strong>market</strong>s are local<br />
Supply wholesale price Demand<br />
Generation<br />
13<br />
<strong>Nordic</strong><br />
wholesale<br />
<strong>market</strong><br />
(Nordpool)<br />
Industry<br />
Retail<br />
Supply<br />
Local<br />
retail<br />
<strong>market</strong>s<br />
retail price<br />
Retail<br />
customers<br />
Demand
Still a highly fragmented <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
others<br />
Helsinki<br />
BKK<br />
E-CO Energi<br />
Norsk Hydro<br />
PVO<br />
Dong Energy<br />
Generation<br />
395 TWh<br />
> 350 companies<br />
29%<br />
E.ON<br />
2005 figures; the effects of the structural changes in Denmark have been taken into account.<br />
14<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong><br />
Statkraft<br />
Vattenfall<br />
others<br />
Distribution<br />
14 million customers<br />
>500 companies<br />
51%<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong><br />
Vattenfall<br />
E.ON<br />
Dong Energy<br />
Hafslund<br />
Helsinki<br />
SEAS-NVE<br />
BKK Statkraft<br />
Göteborg<br />
others<br />
53%<br />
Retail<br />
14 million customers<br />
~450 companies<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong><br />
E.ON<br />
Dong Energy<br />
Vattenfall<br />
Hafslund<br />
Plusenergi<br />
SEAS-NVE<br />
Helsinki<br />
Fjordkraft<br />
Östkraft
New capacity will be needed<br />
Demand and capacity development in<br />
the <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
TWh<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
2000 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020<br />
Existing/remaining capacity<br />
Committed new capacity<br />
15<br />
• Electricity demand is expected to<br />
increase around 55 TWh by 2020<br />
• Committed plans of new capacity<br />
approx. 20 TWh<br />
• Additionally:<br />
– effect increases in Swedish<br />
nuclear may bring up to 8 TWh<br />
more capacity<br />
– possible closures of current<br />
capacity may take away up to<br />
10 TWh by 2020
New capacity will require an EUR 35+ price<br />
EUR/MWh<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
-94 -96 -98 -00 -02 -04 -06 -08<br />
Source: Nord Pool, <strong>Fortum</strong><br />
16<br />
Futures<br />
May 2, 2006<br />
EUR/MWh<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
Fuel costs, excl. CO 2 costs<br />
Fixed costs<br />
( variation)<br />
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind<br />
Source: NEA & IEA "Projected Cost of Generating Electricity", 2005 update (average of<br />
European projects); Elforsk: "El från nya anläggningar", 2003.
Spot history and forwards in Europe<br />
Yearly moving average spot price Forwards<br />
EUR/MWh<br />
EUR/MWh<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
Source: Reuters, OMEL<br />
17<br />
May 2, 2006<br />
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />
UK<br />
German<br />
Nord Pool<br />
Dutch<br />
Spanish
<strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>market</strong> becoming more integrated into<br />
Europe<br />
• In 2005, Nord Pool introduced a<br />
spot <strong>market</strong> area "KONTEK" to<br />
facilitate <strong>market</strong> coupling on the<br />
Kontek cable<br />
• NorNed (Norway - The Netherlands)<br />
by 2008<br />
• Estlink (Estonia - Finland) by 2007<br />
• Nordel priority projects enhance<br />
<strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong> integration<br />
18<br />
Present<br />
Under construction<br />
Planned<br />
Discussed 800<br />
1500<br />
+200<br />
+100<br />
50<br />
60<br />
500<br />
+ 200<br />
550<br />
100<br />
350 1300<br />
1040 2050<br />
+800<br />
1000<br />
630<br />
900<br />
(490)<br />
900<br />
600<br />
+90<br />
1600<br />
1200 300<br />
700 1200600<br />
1000<br />
+300<br />
600<br />
600<br />
600<br />
1000<br />
600<br />
2200<br />
550<br />
200<br />
3800<br />
1000<br />
2500<br />
125<br />
1700<br />
3500<br />
2750 1500<br />
1600<br />
1000<br />
70
Fuel and CO 2 allowance prices<br />
USD / bbl<br />
USD / t<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
Source: , ; <strong>market</strong> prices May 3, 2006 ; 2006-2008 future quotations<br />
19<br />
Oil price<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
Coal price<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
2008<br />
GBP / therm<br />
EUR / tCO 2<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
Gas price (UK)<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
CO 2 price<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
eservoir content (TWh)<br />
120<br />
100<br />
<strong>Nordic</strong> water reservoirs<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
Source: Nord Pool<br />
20<br />
2000 2005 2006 reference level<br />
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53<br />
week
• <strong>Fortum</strong> today<br />
• <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
• Russia<br />
• Financials / outlook<br />
• Supplementary material<br />
21
The large Russian <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong> is undergoing<br />
major change<br />
• A major need for new<br />
capacity<br />
• Big potential for<br />
efficiency improvement<br />
Source: IEA<br />
22<br />
TWh<br />
2000<br />
1500<br />
1000<br />
500<br />
0<br />
> 4,000<br />
Power generation 2003<br />
US<br />
China<br />
Japan<br />
Russia<br />
India<br />
Germany<br />
Canada<br />
France<br />
UK<br />
<strong>Nordic</strong><br />
Brasil
Development of Russian <strong>power</strong> industry –<br />
a <strong>Nordic</strong>/Western analogy<br />
Unbundling of businesses<br />
by type of activity<br />
Market liberalisation in<br />
competitive businesses<br />
23<br />
Competitive<br />
businesses:<br />
Regulated<br />
monopolies:<br />
• Generation<br />
•Sales<br />
• Transmission<br />
• Distribution<br />
Pricing model reform – from tariff<br />
regulation to competitive pricing
Key steps in the reform<br />
• "Power industry law" approved<br />
• Restructuring of regional energos (P&H companies)<br />
• Formation of new companies<br />
• Establishment of Russian <strong>power</strong> exchange (ATS)<br />
• Launch of the free-trade sector of the wholesale <strong>market</strong><br />
• Introduction of vested bilateral contracts for a transitional<br />
period to replace the regulated sector of the wholesale <strong>market</strong><br />
• Launch of balancing <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
• Competitive <strong>market</strong> of ancillary services and generating capacity<br />
• Gradual liberalisation of the retail <strong>market</strong><br />
24
Reform impacts industry structure<br />
RAO UES restructuring<br />
Regulated monopolies<br />
25<br />
Competitive businesses<br />
State-controlled companies<br />
Privatised companies<br />
Share<br />
of private 0%<br />
ownership<br />
Prices of fuel and electricity in Russia<br />
are currently low<br />
Nuclear<br />
16%<br />
150 TWh<br />
Hydro<br />
17%<br />
156 TWh<br />
Russian <strong>power</strong> generation<br />
914 TWh in 2003<br />
Source: IEA, RAO UES<br />
Average prices Jan - Oct 2005<br />
26<br />
Oil 3%<br />
Coal 19% 172 TWh<br />
Gas 45%<br />
407 TWh<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
Electricity price and typical<br />
marginal costs for gas-fired <strong>power</strong> plant<br />
Electricity price<br />
CO2 cost<br />
Gas cost<br />
Russia Germany<br />
• Price liberalisation of gas is important in setting the electricity price in Russia<br />
• So far, the implicit price cap set by the tariff in the regulated sector has<br />
prevented free price formation in the free-trade sector of the wholesale <strong>market</strong>
<strong>Fortum</strong> has a long experience of successful cooperation<br />
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000<br />
Construction of hydro <strong>power</strong><br />
plants in Kola area<br />
27<br />
Loviisa NPP construction<br />
Electricity import<br />
Nuclear fuel import<br />
Construction of North-West<br />
CHP in St Petersburg<br />
Lenenergo shareholding<br />
Automation & information system<br />
deliveries to thermal <strong>power</strong> plants<br />
Permanent presence in Moscow/St Petersburg<br />
Safety improvements<br />
for nuclear <strong>power</strong> plants
<strong>Fortum</strong>'s strong foothold in NW Russia today<br />
originates from stake in Lenenergo<br />
28<br />
• Largest utility in northwest Russia<br />
• 9 thermal and 6 hydro plants<br />
• Power generation<br />
– capacity ~3,240 MW<br />
– production ~13.4 TWh/a<br />
• Heat generation<br />
– capacity ~13,900 MW<br />
– production ~25.2 TWh/a<br />
• Personnel ~12,500<br />
• <strong>Fortum</strong>'s share of the company<br />
about one third
Kolenergo – northwest Russian <strong>power</strong> company<br />
Key figures of Kolenergo<br />
Hydro <strong>power</strong> generation<br />
Hydro <strong>power</strong> capacity<br />
Share of TGC-1's hydro capacity<br />
Thermal <strong>power</strong> generation<br />
Thermal <strong>power</strong> capacity<br />
Heat sales<br />
Electricity sales<br />
Distribution volume<br />
Number of customers<br />
Key financials in 2004<br />
Net sales<br />
Total assets<br />
Interest-bearing debt<br />
Number of employees<br />
3,330<br />
Ownership of Kolenergo:<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong> 24.8%, RAO UES 49.2% and others 26.0%<br />
Exchange rate EUR/RUB 25.11.2005<br />
*) Owned by Federal Grid Company<br />
29<br />
TWh/a<br />
MW<br />
TWh/a<br />
MW<br />
TWh/a<br />
TWh/a<br />
TWh/a<br />
MEUR<br />
MEUR<br />
MEUR<br />
6.5<br />
1,593<br />
55%<br />
1<br />
335<br />
4<br />
11<br />
11<br />
200,000<br />
248<br />
404<br />
15<br />
Unbundled companies<br />
with the same shareholding<br />
structure as Kolenergo<br />
Kola<br />
Power Generation<br />
Companies<br />
Kola Distribution<br />
Company<br />
Kola Backbone<br />
Networks Company<br />
Electricity<br />
Sale Company<br />
Companies are planned to<br />
be merged with territorial or<br />
interregional companies<br />
Territorial Generating<br />
Company TGC-1<br />
Interregional<br />
Distribution<br />
Company<br />
Interregional<br />
Transmission<br />
Company *)<br />
Electricity sales<br />
company
TGC-1 operating as of 1 October 2005<br />
Installed<br />
capacity MW<br />
Norway<br />
28,300<br />
Denmark<br />
12,700<br />
30<br />
Sweden<br />
33,600<br />
Finland<br />
16,500<br />
Territorial Generating Company TGC-1<br />
• Production capacity ~ 5,750 MW,<br />
of which hydro 2,874 MW<br />
• Third largest territorial generation<br />
company in Russia<br />
• Started operation on 1 October 2005<br />
based on a leasing model<br />
• Transfer of assets into TGC-1's ownership<br />
targeted at the beginning of 2007<br />
• <strong>Fortum</strong>'s calculated share ~26% *)<br />
• <strong>Fortum</strong> has 3 members of 11 in total<br />
on TGC-1's Board of Directors<br />
*) Direct owners of TGC-1 are initially Lenenergo 63%,<br />
Kolenergo 25%, Karelenergo 12%
• <strong>Fortum</strong> today<br />
• <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
• Russia<br />
• Financials / outlook<br />
• Supplementary material<br />
31
A good start to the year<br />
• EUR 486 (393) million comparable operating profit from continuing<br />
operations, up by 24%<br />
• All segments excluding Markets improved their performance<br />
• From continuing operations<br />
– earnings per share EUR 0.39 (0.28), up by 39%<br />
– net cash from operating activities EUR 303 (62) million<br />
• Agreements to acquire E.ON Finland shares from the city of<br />
Espoo and E.ON <strong>Nordic</strong><br />
Comparison: I/2005 financial results<br />
32
Development of prices<br />
• 75% increase in Nord Pool system area price to 45.4<br />
EUR/MWh in Q1/2006<br />
• <strong>Fortum</strong> Power Generation's achieved <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong><br />
price increased by 17% to 37.1 EUR/MWh in<br />
Q1/2006<br />
• Increase in CO 2 price to 22-27 EUR/tonne in Q1<br />
33
Comparable operating profit<br />
MEUR I/2006 I/2005 2005 LTM<br />
Power Generation 293 224 854 923<br />
Heat 126 107 253 272<br />
Distribution 81 66 244 259<br />
Markets 0 7 30 23<br />
Other -14 -11 -47 -50<br />
Comparable operating profit 486 393 1 334 1 427<br />
Non-recurring items 0 6 30 24<br />
Other items effecting comparability -14 7 -17 -38<br />
OP from continuing operations 472 406 1 347 1 413<br />
34
Income statement<br />
MEUR I/2006 I/2005 2005 LTM<br />
Sales 1 343 1 133 3 877 4 087<br />
Expenses -871 -727 -2 530 -2 674<br />
Operating profit 472 406 1 347 1 413<br />
Share of profit of associates and joint ventures 35 15 55 75<br />
Financial expenses, net -15 -35 -135 -115<br />
Profit before taxes 492 386 1 267 1 373<br />
Income tax expense -120 -116 -331 -335<br />
Profit for the period from continuing operations 372 270 936 1 038<br />
Profit for the period from discontinued operations 0 84 474 390<br />
Net profit for the period 372 354 1 410 1 428<br />
Of which minority interest 26 25 52 53<br />
EPS, Total <strong>Fortum</strong> Group (EUR) 0.39 0.38 1.55 1.56<br />
EPS, continuing operations (EUR) 0.39 0.28 1.01 1.12<br />
EPS, discontinued operations (EUR) - 0.10 0.54 0.44<br />
35
Cash flow statement<br />
MEUR I/2006 I/2005 2005<br />
Operating profit before depreciations, continuing operations 570 509 1 754<br />
Non-cash flow items and divesting activities 24 -14 15<br />
Financial items and taxes -110 -205 -405<br />
Funds from operations, continuing operations (FFO) 484 290 1 364<br />
Change in working capital -181 -228 -93<br />
Net cash from operating activities, continuing operations 303 62 1 271<br />
Net cash from operating activities, discontinued operations - 152 133<br />
Total cash from operating activities 303 214 1 404<br />
Capital expenditures -71 -49 -346<br />
Other investing activities -59 4 -52<br />
Investing activities, discontinued operations - -137 1 155<br />
Cash flow before financing activities 173 32 2 161<br />
36
Balance sheet<br />
MEUR Mar 31 Dec 31<br />
2006 2005<br />
Non-current assets 13 106 13 075<br />
Current assets 1 595 2 055<br />
ASSETS 14 701 15 130<br />
Total equity 6 498 7 411<br />
of which minority interest 231 260<br />
Interest-bearing liabilities 4 107 3 946<br />
Non-interest bearing liabilities 4 096 3 773<br />
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 14 701 15 130<br />
Equity per share (EUR) 7.11 8.17<br />
Net debt, (MEUR) 3 900 3 158<br />
37
€/MWh<br />
52<br />
50<br />
48<br />
46<br />
44<br />
42<br />
40<br />
38<br />
36<br />
34<br />
32<br />
30<br />
28<br />
26<br />
24<br />
Nord Pool year forwards<br />
Q1<br />
38<br />
Year 05<br />
Year 06 Year 07 Year 08 Year 09<br />
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2<br />
2004 2005 2006<br />
May 3, 2006
Hedging of Power Generation's <strong>Nordic</strong> sales<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong> has hedged Power Generation's <strong>Nordic</strong> sales volume at<br />
the beginning of April 2006:<br />
4-12 / 2006<br />
Calendar year<br />
2007<br />
39<br />
Hedge ratio Hedge price<br />
~ 80 % ~ EUR 33 per MWh<br />
~ 55 % ~ EUR 37 per MWh
<strong>Fortum</strong> well positioned for 2006 and 2007<br />
• A strong start to the year<br />
• Continued focus on the <strong>Nordic</strong> and Baltic Rim countries<br />
• Competitive corporate structure, costs and production portfolio<br />
• Strong financial position and cash flow<br />
40<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong> has the foundations for good performance
• <strong>Fortum</strong> today<br />
• <strong>Nordic</strong> <strong>power</strong> <strong>market</strong><br />
• Russia<br />
• Financials / outlook<br />
• Supplementary material<br />
41
<strong>Fortum</strong> - a listed company<br />
• Leading <strong>power</strong> and heat company in <strong>Nordic</strong><br />
• Founded and listed at the Helsinki Stock Exchange 1998<br />
• More than 50,000 shareholders<br />
• Among the most traded shares in Helsinki stock exchange<br />
30 April 2006<br />
42<br />
Finnish State 51.2%<br />
Households 5.0% Financial and insurance<br />
institutions 2.2%<br />
Other Finnish<br />
investors 7.2%<br />
International<br />
investors 34.4%
Current <strong>Fortum</strong> Group financial targets<br />
43<br />
• ROE >12%<br />
• ROCE >12%<br />
• Net debt / EBITDA 3.0 - 3.5<br />
• Normal CAPEX
Credit ratings<br />
• Moody's long-term rating A2 (stable outlook)<br />
• Standard & Poor's long-term rating A- (stable outlook)<br />
"Due to the cash outflows, which in 2006 total €2.23 billion, <strong>Fortum</strong>’s debt is<br />
expected to increase significantly and credit measures are likely to weaken as a<br />
result, thereby markedly reducing rating headroom. Nevertheless, given the<br />
company's very strong financial results in 2005 that led to a low adjusted debtto-total-capital<br />
ratio of 33% at year-end, we expect credit metrics to remain in<br />
line with our previously indicated ratio targets."<br />
Standard & Poor's<br />
44
Funding sources and maturity profile<br />
• Funding and treasury risk<br />
management centralised to<br />
Group Treasury<br />
• Transparent loan portfolio<br />
• Access to all relevant debt<br />
<strong>market</strong>s<br />
45<br />
Interest bearing loans at the end of March 2006<br />
Average interest rate disclosed at the end of 2005 for the<br />
year 2005 was 4%.<br />
828<br />
355<br />
580<br />
Total 4,107 MEUR<br />
41<br />
542<br />
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012<br />
Bonds Bank loans Other long-term debt Short-term debt<br />
81<br />
33<br />
1,506<br />
2013+
Total equity<br />
MEUR Mar 31 Dec 31 Change<br />
2006 2005<br />
Share capital 2 997 2 976 21<br />
Share premium 72 70 2<br />
Other restricted funds 2 2 0<br />
Fair value and other reserves 1) -378 -117 -261<br />
Retained earnings 2) 3 574 4 220 -646<br />
Minority 231 260 -29<br />
Total equity 6 498 7 411 -913<br />
1) Major part is attributable to fair values of electricity derivatives hedging future cash flows.<br />
Effect is calculated net of deferred taxes. Amounts in equity will be recognised in income<br />
statement when the hedged item e.g., forecasted sale will affect profit and loss.<br />
2) Dividends paid amounted to MEUR 987. Net profit for the period MEUR 346.<br />
46
Heat key figures<br />
EUR million 2005 2004<br />
Net sales 1,063 1,025<br />
Comparable operating profit 253 207<br />
Employees<br />
Production plants<br />
2,385 2,146<br />
CHP plants 23<br />
heat plants and stations abt 700<br />
<strong>Fortum</strong>'s heat and steam sales, TWh, 2005<br />
** including Wroclaw and PEC Plock (acq.2005)<br />
47<br />
0.1<br />
Nr 1<br />
9.5<br />
··<br />
·<br />
· · ·<br />
· · ··· ·<br />
· · ·· · · ·<br />
·<br />
·· ·<br />
1.1<br />
(3.9**)<br />
·· ·<br />
·· ·· ··· · ·· ·<br />
Distribution<br />
Heat<br />
·<br />
· ·<br />
· ·<br />
· · · ··<br />
·<br />
·<br />
· ·<br />
· · ···<br />
··<br />
· ·<br />
·<br />
··<br />
· ··<br />
· ·· · ··<br />
·<br />
· · ·<br />
9.8<br />
·<br />
· ·· ·<br />
· 1. 2<br />
-<br />
· 0.03<br />
·· ·<br />
·<br />
-
Polish <strong>power</strong> and heat <strong>market</strong>s<br />
• Population 38 million<br />
• GDP growth around 4.5% in 2004<br />
• Total electricity consumption 130-140<br />
TWh/a<br />
• Polish generation approx. 150 TWh/a<br />
• Number of electricity customers around<br />
15.6 million<br />
• 8 distribution companies<br />
• Energy sector privatisation ongoing in<br />
generation, district heating and distribution<br />
• Size of the heating <strong>market</strong>s around 165<br />
TWh/a<br />
Source: EIU, Eurelectric/Eurprog; 2004 or 2003 estimates, <strong>Fortum</strong><br />
48<br />
Operations of <strong>Fortum</strong> Heat in Poland<br />
Płock<br />
Existing operations of <strong>Fortum</strong> Heat<br />
Wrocław Płock
Baltic countries' <strong>power</strong> and heat <strong>market</strong>s<br />
• Population 1.3 million (Estonia), 2.3 million<br />
(Latvia) and 3.4 million (Lithuania)<br />
• GDP growth 6.0% (Estonia), 5.5% (Latvia),<br />
6.5% (Lithuania)<br />
• Total electricity consumption; Estonia and<br />
Latvia 6-7 TWh/a, Lithuania 10 TWh/a<br />
• Total generation; Estonia 9-10 TWh/a, Latvia<br />
4-5 TWh/a, Lithuania 18 TWh/a<br />
• Three larger distribution companies in<br />
Estonia, one in Latvia, two in Lithuania<br />
• Privatisation not active in generation or<br />
distribution, privatisation of district heating<br />
started in 2000<br />
• Size of the heating <strong>market</strong>s around 30 TWh/a<br />
Source: EIU, Eurelectric/Eurprog; 2004 or 2003 estimates<br />
49
Distribution regulation differ country by country<br />
Status<br />
Regulation<br />
principle<br />
Allowed return<br />
50<br />
Finland<br />
New model for<br />
period 2005 - 2007<br />
Rate of return,<br />
ex-post regulation<br />
Maximum allowed rate of<br />
return based on actual<br />
defined cost data<br />
Sweden Norway<br />
New regulatory model is<br />
being applied to 2003 and<br />
2004 tariffs<br />
Yardstick, ex-post regulation,<br />
with benchmarking based on<br />
hypothetical efficient company<br />
Actual operation vs.<br />
fictious network parameters<br />
defines return<br />
Regulation authority has supervised<br />
41 areas for 2003 and 55 areas for<br />
2004 due to claimed overpricing. All<br />
companies that have received a<br />
decision to reimburse customers<br />
have appealed to court.<br />
The regulator has proposed a<br />
model for the next 5-year<br />
period starting in 2007.<br />
Revenue cap, ex-ante<br />
regulation<br />
Maximum annual income limit<br />
based on historical or defined<br />
cost data