Fuels & Lubricants Magazine

FUELS CORNER
The Impact of Electrification
There’s new commentary and analysis on electrification
in the 2018 Outlook. Exxon notes that there are approximately
2 million EVs in the global fleet, or about 0.2%
of the total, and acknowledges the car ban phenomena.
“Recently, some car manufacturers and governments
have announced plans to limit future vehicle sales to
those with an electric motor, including hybrids, plug-in
hybrids and battery electric vehicles.”
The company expects that the EV fleet will see strong
growth driven by decreasing battery costs, and increasing
model availability and continued support from
government policies. This is shown in the figure below.
However, future battery costs and government policies
are uncertain, Exxon notes, pointing out the “wide range
of perspectives on future electric vehicle growth, with
third-party estimates for 2040 ranging from a factor of
three higher and lower than the Outlook.”
Electric vehicles grow rapidly
Worldwide electric vehicle fleet – millon cars
The company expects that
the EV fleet will see strong
growth driven by decreasing
battery costs, and increasing
model availability and
continued support from
government policies.
Source: ExxonMobil, 2018
ExxonMobile Outlook: http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/energy-outlook/a-view-to-2040
About the Author
Tammy Klein provides market and
policy intelligence with unique
insight and analysis drawn from her
global network in the fuels industry
through the consulting services she
provides and the membershipbased
Future Fuels Outlook service.
She is an expert on conventional,
biofuels and alternative fuels market
and policy issues.
She is formerly Senior Vice
President for Stratas Advisors/Hart
Energy and in that capacity was
responsible for overseeing all aspects
of its fuels and transport-related research,
products, services, staff and
consultancy. Prior to that she was
the Executive Director of the Global
Biofuels Center, a service of Hart
Energy she co-created, that tracks,
monitors and analyzes biofuels market,
policy and technology developments
in more than 70 countries.
Tammy continues to serve as an
advisor to many companies, governments
and NGOs on transportation
fuels issues. She has advised the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC), International
Petroleum Industry Environmental
Conservation Association (IPIECA),
Energy Management Authority
(EMA) of Singapore and Natural
Resources Defense Council (NRDC)
and the International Energy Agency
(IEA), among others.
To learn more about Tammy
please visit:
http://futurefuelstrategies.com
Fuels&Lubricants No. 2 JUNE 2018 37