Drought and Water Scarcity: addressing
current and future challenges
20 th -21 st March 2019
Pembroke College, University of Oxford
Pembroke Square, off St. Aldgates Street, Oxford, OX1 1DW
Delegate Pack
Useful Information
Venue
Pembroke College is our venue for the whole event: the conference, accommodation, and the conference dinner.
It is located in the city centre, on Pembroke Square which leads off from St. Aldates Street, Oxford, OX1 1DW. You enter via the
Porter’s Lodge. The conference takes place in the Rokos Quad: ask the porter for directions, or follow the signs.
For those who have booked B&B accommodation within Pembroke College as part of your registration package note that your
room key will be available from the Porter’s Lodge from 2pm. There is a room in which to store luggage if needed: please ask the
porters for directions. Check out is 9am.
Registration and refreshments are available from 9.15am by the Pichette Auditorium on each day. The conference takes place over
three floors in the same building. A lift is available.
There is no dedicated poster viewing session so we encourage everyone to take the opportunity during the breaks, lunch and
drinks reception to have a look at the posters.
Travel Advice
Click here for printable maps, directions and information
about public transport.
Arriving by train – The college is 15 minutes walk from the
train station (Park End Street, OX1 1HS)
Arriving by coach/bus – The Oxford Tube and the X90 run
frequently from central London to Oxford. The Oxford Tube
stops on St. Aldates street, very close to the College. From
Heathrow, the Airline coach runs directly to Oxford. From
London Stansted, National Express coaches run to Oxford
via Luton Airport. All coach services terminate at Gloucester
Green Bus Station (George St, OX1 2BX). The college is 10
minutes walk away.
Arriving by car – There is no parking available at the college
so if arriving by car, please use one of the city’s Park & Ride
schemes.
Taxis – Are located at the railway station and the Gloucester
Green Bus Station (George St, OX1 2BX). Here are some
local firms: “001 Taxis” 01865 240000, “Go Green Taxis”
01865 922222.
Food & Drink
Please bring your water bottle and re-usable cup to help
minimise waste! This is because crockery cannot be taken
into the auditorium and paper cups will be issued instead. As
these cannot be recycled, a reusable cup is best if you have
one. Refreshments will be served at registration and during
breaks. Lunch is cafeteria style, in the College’s dining hall. All
dietary requests have been noted. If you are unsure if
something is suitable, the catering staff will be happy to advise.
Everyone is invited to the drinks reception on Wednesday
20 th March. For those who have booked, the Conference
Dinner will be held at 7.15pm on Wednesday 20 th March:
please note that only those who included a ticket for the
dinner as part of their registration package are able to attend.
Medical Advice
Non-emergency help – If you need non-emergency medical
attention, ring the NHS helpline 111 from a UK phone. If you
do not have a UK phone, you can call from the Porter’s
Lodge. Speak to the Porters if you need first aid, or need to
go to hospital but not in an ambulance. They will be happy to
help. The number for the Porter’s Lodge is 01865 276444,
If you need urgent medical attention, call the UK
emergency number: 999. Please also tell the Porter’s
Lodge so they can help you and guide the emergency
services. The nearest Accident & Emergency Unit (A&E) is at
the John Radcliffe Hospital, Headley Way, Headington,
Oxford, OX3 9DU.
Contents
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Useful Information
Welcome
UK Drought & Water Scarcity Programme
Water-saving media campaign competition
Audio Anecdotes – historic droughts from a human/social perspective
Programme
Session Chairs
Speakers
Posters
Drought & Water Scarcity Projects
Drought Risk and You (DRY)
Historic Droughts
IMPETUS
MaRIUS
ENDOWS
Links to About Drought Datasets
Delegates
Thank You
Welcome
Welcome to the About Drought Conference 2019 and thank
you to all the delegates, speakers and presenters in
attendance. More than 100 people representing a very broad
range of interests and expertise join us to connect with this
truly interdisciplinary research initiative, the RCUK Drought &
Water Scarcity Programme.
In this e-delegate pack you will find information
which illustrates the diverse, interdisciplinary and
cross-sectoral content of About Drought and gives
a valuable insight into drought and water scarcity.
We would like to thank all our speakers and
facilitators who are sharing their expertise and all
the delegates for your questions, comments and
opinions which will feed into the direction of the
programme, its outputs and future workshops,
events and engagement activities.
Have you viewed the About Drought
Showcase video?
The About Drought video documentary features
interviews with members of the programme and a
wide range of stakeholders. Please watch it by
clicking here and share it with your colleagues.
You can view About Drought videos on YouTube
and listen to our fascinating podcasts of memories
of UK droughts on SoundCloud. If you would like
to feature any of these resources on your website
or at an event, please contact the project office by
emailing info@AboutDrought.info
UK Drought & Water
Scarcity Programme
Droughts and water scarcity jointly pose a substantial threat to the environment, agriculture, infrastructure,
society and culture in the UK, yet our ability to characterise and predict their occurrence, duration and
intensity, as well as minimise their impacts, has often been inadequate.
The UK Droughts & Water Scarcity research programme is a five-year interdisciplinary, £12 million+
NERC programme in collaboration with ESRC, EPSRC, BBSRC and AHRC. It is supporting improved
decision-making in relation to droughts and water scarcity by providing research that identifies, predicts and
responds to the inter-relationships between their multiple drivers and impacts.
The programme’s research is UK-focused, and contributes to NERC’s natural hazards and climate system
strategic science themes.
The final project, ENDOWS, (known as About
Drought) engages with stakeholders, practitioners
and the public to involve them in the UK Drought
and Water Scarcity programme and to disseminate
information about the findings, outputs and datasets
from the programme that everyone can use.
SHOWCASE VIDEO
You can find highlights from the About Drought
Showcase by following this link:
bit.ly/AboutDroughtHighlights
Competition
Through our ENDOWS programme, students from
the School of Communication Design at Falmouth
University have been working with Dr Rebecca
Pearce and Dr Cui Su, to shake up the way we talk
about drought and water saving.
Challenged to create a media campaign to raise
awareness of water scarcity, drought or a watersaving
product, the results have spanned both social
media and traditional media platforms, embraced the
humorous side of water-saving, and drawn in a new,
younger audience with different attitudes to
consumption and waste.
See below for some of the campaign highlights.
We’ve chosen to feature three of the campaigns at
the conference. Visit the 1 st floor where Dannie &
Max, Chiara & David, and Alex & Jacob will be
delighted to talk you through their campaign ideas.
Choose a song from the three-minute shower
playlist, find your secret water hero identity or make
a water-saving pledge. Check out the new visuals for
a responsible water use traffic light system weather
app extension.
We are particularly keen to hear from any delegates
who would like to roll-out the campaigns regionally
or nationally.
Chiara and David Dannie and Max Watson and Cox
Judge for yourself – view the campaigns and meet the students behind them on the
1 st floor in the Pembroke Allen & Overy Room
Audio Anecdotes
“A lot of the
heather moorland
was destroyed.
Lots of animals,
sadly, lost their
lives.”
What’s it like to
listen for a living?
Rebecca Pearce
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
University of Exeter
Between October 2014 and October 2017, Dr Rebecca Pearce travelled
across Britain, tracing the impacts of historic droughts as they are recalled
by people living in a diverse range of communities.
Now you can join Rebecca in that experience by listening to a selection of
extended interview highlights from the Historic Droughts project’s oral
history collection, through our special conference sound installation of audio
anecdotes.
Pick up a set of headphones at our listening post in the foyer at any time
over the two-day conference and choose from three different channels.
Close your eyes and immerse yourself in the conversation, from horticulture
to heatwaves and hydrology to heath fires. Sense the sweat, smoke and
sunburn, imagine the colour contrast of carefully tended golf courses set
against parched fields and moorlands.
Learn something about the power of memory work, narratives and
storytelling, through these three unique pieces.
“… the [firefighter] leggings that we used to wear back in the 70s were
made of plastic and the helmets, believe it or not, were made out of
hardboard … you wouldn’t believe that they would make leggings out of
plastic but they were yellow plastic and they used to melt very easily.”
Western Morning News 2 nd October 1976
Western Morning News 9 th September 1976
Western Morning News 9 th September 1976
Listen to the About Drought Audio Anecdotes at the Listening Post in the foyer and
meet Rebecca Pearce who conducted the interviews
Wednesday 20 th March
Programme
09.15
10.00
11.30
11.50
13.00
13.50
15.20
15.40
16.45
16.50
17.10
19.15
Registration – Foyer outside The Pichette Auditorium
Tea & Coffee
Plenary Session (The Pichette Auditorium)
Welcome & notices: Helen Gavin (University of Oxford)
Chair: Jamie Hannaford (CEH)
Welcome to the ENDOWS Programme
Guest Speaker: Henny van Lanen (Wageningen University)
The 2018 NW European Drought: warnings from an extreme event
Len Shaffrey (Reading University)
Has climate change increased the chance of events like the 1976 North West European
drought occurring?
Guest Speaker: Rob Wilby (Loughborough University)
Challenging the mantra of wetter winters, drier summers in the UK
Break - Foyer
Plenary Session (The Pichette Auditorium)
Chair: Len Shaffrey (Reading University)
Introduction
Guest Speaker: Massimiliano Pasqui (CNR)
A customisable drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting service to support different users’
needs
Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma (University of Bristol)
Novel metric for water stress from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)
satellite mission
Pico pitches from poster presenters
Lunch – The Hall
Parallel Sessions (see following page)
Room 1: Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium (Main auditorium)
Room 2: Drought Impacts – Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor)
Break - Foyer
Parallel Sessions continued
Sessions come back together in The Pichette Auditorium
Closing Words
Jamie Hannaford (CEH)
Drinks Reception – Foyer • ALL WELCOME
Conference Dinner – The Hall
Please be seated by 19.15 as service will start promptly at 19.30. Only delegates who
have booked places in advance can be accommodated at the dinner.
Wednesday 20 th March
Afternoon Programme
Room 1 - Pichette Auditorium: Climatology and Hydrology
13.50
14.00
14.20
14.40
15.00
15.20
15.40
15.45
16.05
16.25
16.45
Len Shaffrey (Reading University)
Introduction
Jamie Hannaford (on behalf of Katie Smith) (CEH)
Reconstructing historic flow data to inform management of future hydrological extremes
Lucy Barker (CEH)
How severe were historic hydrological droughts in the UK? Insights from a systematic characterisation and
ranking of events back to 1891
John Bloomfield (BGS)
Characterising the effects of major episodes of drought on groundwater at national to continental scale
Matt Fry (CEH)
The Historic Droughts Inventory: an accessible archive of past drought impact information for the UK
from diverse documentary sources
Break - Foyer
Jamie Hannaford (CEH)
Introduction
Elizabeth Brock (Met Office) & Katharine Smart (Anglian Water)
What does stochastic rainfall generation and Bayesian extreme value analysis mean for Water
Resource Planning
Christopher Nankervis (Weather Logistics Ltd)
Use of Copernicus seasonal climate forecast model data to improve the accuracy of long-term forecasts:
the UK Summer Rainfall Insights project
Ragab Ragab (CEH)
Study of drought risk in different UK catchments under future climate and land use changes
Sessions come back together in The Pichette Room (main auditorium)
Room 2 - The Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor): Drought Impacts
13.50
14.00
14.20
14.40
15.00
15.20
15.40
15.45
16.05
16.25
16.45
Ian Holman (Cranfield University)
Introduction
Tom King (Lancaster University)
The effect of the hot dry conditions of 2018 on natural ecosystems: findings from Wytham Woods,
Oxfordshire
Jill Thompson (on behalf of Sarah Ayling) (CEH)
Impact of reduced rainfall on the growth and development of plants in British semi-natural grassland:
a rainfall manipulation study
Daniela Anghileri (University of Southampton)
Strengthening research capabilities for addressing water and food security challenges in sub-Saharan Africa
Stephen McGuire (SEPA)
Assessing the impacts of water scarcity in North East Scotland through the summer of 2018
Break
Nevil Quinn (UWE)
Introduction
Frederick Otu-Larbi (Lancaster University)
Modelling the effects of drought stress on photosynthesis and latent heat fluxes
Susan Davies (University of Edinburgh)
Effective risk management against threat of drought impacts on the Scottish timber industry
Peter Kettlewell (Harper Adams University)
Mitigating drought impact on crop yield by applying film-forming polymers
Sessions come back together in The Pichette Auditorium (main auditorium)
Thursday 21 st March
Programme
09.15
10.00
11.35
11.55
13.10
14.00
15.30
15.50
16.55
17.00
Registration – Foyer outside The Pichette Auditorium
Tea & Coffee
Plenary Session (The Pichette Auditorium)
Welcome & notices: Helen Gavin (University of Oxford)
Chair: Nevil Quinn (UWE)
Introduction
Guest Speaker: Kerstin Stahl (University of Freiburg)
Customising drought indices to improve drought impact monitoring and prediction
Guest Speaker: Mike Morecroft (Natural England)
Drought impacts on the natural environment and lessons for climate change adaptation
Guest Speaker: Ian Holman (Cranfield University)
Taking lessons from the 2018 drought forward into increased drought resilience in the
agricultural sector
Break - Foyer
Plenary Session
Chair: Lindsey McEwen (UWE)
Introduction
Guest Speaker: Anne van Loon (Birmingham University)
Feedbacks between drought and society
Guest Speaker: Fiona Lobley (Environment Agency)
The UK 2018 dry weather situation: looking ahead to 2019
Pico pitches from poster presenters
Lunch – The Hall
Parallel Sessions (see following page)
Room 1: Drought Planning & Management – Pichette Auditorium (main auditorium)
Room 2: Drought Impacts, Communities, Risk Perception & Communication – Harold
Lee Room (2 nd floor)
Break – The Foyer
Parallel Sessions continued
Room 1: Drought Planning & Management
Room 2: Drought Impacts
Sessions come back together in The Pichette Auditorium
Closing Words
Ian Holman (Cranfield University)
Thursday 21 st March
Afternoon Programme
Room 1 - Pichette Auditorium: Drought Planning & Management
14.00
14.10
14.30
14.50
15.10
15.30
15.50
15.55
16.15
16.35
16.55
Jamie Hannaford (CEH)
Introduction
Lindsey McEwen (UWE)
Integrating science and narratives: a new interdisciplinary approach to develop drought mitigation
strategies
Granville Davies & Miranda Foster (Yorkshire Water)
Water resources in Yorkshire, UK in 2018: drought management, perception and communication
Amanda Fencl (on behalf of Ruth Langridge ) (University of California)
Groundwater management in planning for drought: experience from California, USA
Mark Smith (Hydro-Logic Services Ltd)
Recent trends in water resources planning and management
Break
Lindsey McEwen (UWE)
Introduction
Sevilay Topcu (Cukurova University)
Implementing Drought Management in Turkey: an institutional pathology
Amanda Fencl (University of California)
Interconnections between Research on Groundwater, Drought and Climate Change
Caroline King (TBI) & Daniel Tsegai (GeoData Institute)
A review of methods for drought impact and vulnerability assessment
Sessions come back together in The Pichette Room (main auditorium)
Room 2 - The Harold Lee Room: Drought Impacts/Communities,
Risk Perception & Communication
14.00
14.10
14.30
14.50
15.10
15.30
15.50
15.55
16.15
16.35
16.55
Rebecca Pearce (Exeter University)
Introduction
Kevin Grecksch (University of Oxford)
Achieving water efficiency through social norms in the public sector
Ruth Larbey (UWE)
Engaging consumers around water scarcity and water-saving
Sandra Santos (Wageningen University)
Improving institutional frameworks integrating local initiatives from communities exposed to drought and
water scarcity in Ecuador
Antonia Liguori (Loughborough University)
Learning around ‘storying water’ to build an evidence base to support better decision-making in UK drought
risk management
Break
Ian Holman (Cranfield University)
Introduction
Paul Whitehead (University of Oxford)
Impacts of climate change on water quality affecting upland and lowland rivers, wetlands and delta systems
Cedric Laize (CEH)
Relationship between a drought-orientated streamflow index and a series of riverine biological indicators
Jaeyoung Lee (University of Oxford)
Water quality modelling in the Severn-Thames river systems and the impact of a water transfer in drought
Sessions come back together in The Pichette Room (main auditorium)
Session Chairs
Helen Gavin
Oxford University
Environmental
scientist with the
Environmental Change
Institute & MaRIUS
Project Manager
Nevil Quinn
Associate Professor in
Applied Hydrology at
University of the West
of England (UWE)
About Drought
Science Coordinator
Jamie Hannaford
Principal Hydrologist
at Centre for Ecology
& Hydrology (CEH)
PI on About Drought
& Lead PI on Historic
Droughts
Lindsey McEwen
Professor in
Environmental
Management at UWE
& Lead PI Project DRY
Len Shaffrey
Senior Scientist at the
National Centre for
Atmospheric Science
(NCAS) & Professor
of Climate Science
University of Reading
PI on IMPETUS
Rebecca Pearce
Research Fellow,
University of Exeter
About Drought Social
Science Coordinator
Ian Holman
Professor of
Integrated Land &
Water Management
Cranfield University &
Agricultural lead on
Historic Droughts
Speakers
Day 1: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium
Jamie Hannaford CEH
Welcome to the ENDOWS Programme
The Drought and Water Scarcity (DWS) Programme is a major interdisciplinary research programme funded by
NERC, ESRC, EPSRC, BBRC and AHRC. The Programme commenced in 2014 and ends in 2019 and is now in the final
phase, a knowledge exchange project called ENDOWS (Engaging Diverse stakeholders and publics with outputs from
the Drought and Water Scarcity Programme). This presentation will illustrate how ENDOWS is working with a very
diverse stakeholder community to exploit the datasets, models and methodologies developed within the DWS
programme to develop tools and guidance for improved drought management. ENDOWS is structured into various
sectoral workstreams (water supply; agriculture; environment; business; communities). A key focus of this presentation
will be on how ENDOWS is developing methodologies for long-term drought and water resources planning (e.g. the
development of national, consistent ‘Drought Libraries’ and national-scale hydrological and water supply system
models) to support the current drive towards more integrated regional- and national-scale water resources planning.
The talk also illustrates how ENDOWS is enhancing operational drought management through improved monitoring
and early warning of drought, and how this is being co-developed with stakeholders during the ongoing dry weather in
2018. Various other sectoral applications will then be highlighted through examples. Finally, the talk will discuss the
innovative approaches being developed to ensure the vast amount of data being generated by the programme are
readily accessible to the community.
Henny van Lanen Wageningen University & Research
The 2018 NW European Drought: warnings from an extreme event
Last year Europe was hit again by a severe drought, particularly north-western countries suffered. It became apparent
to a wider public that droughts and associated water shortages are not solely preserved for the Mediterranean.
Moreover, drought projections increased concerns. A high pressure system above Scandinavia kept depressions
causing rain at distance and dry and warm air masses were transported to NW Europe. This weather circulation type
is not uncommon for the region, but in 2018 it appeared to be very persistent and lasted several months. Several
temperature records were broken, the climatological water deficit exceeded the driest on record in some countries,
and significantly affected the water system. Not surprisingly, a wide range of impacts was reported. Drought, as a
natural hazard cannot be prevented. However, people are challenged to minimize socio-economic and environmental
impacts. An analysis of management of the 2018 drought learnt that not everything was in order everywhere. It was
found that monitoring of hydrological variables is not targeted to drought, but in NW European countries it is biased
towards floods. Usually the monitoring puts more emphasis on surface water than groundwater. Impact minimization
also requires seasonal hydrological drought forecasting. Use of these forecasts is largely underdeveloped by lots of
practitioners. Monitoring and forecast data are hard to obtain, which is meant to avoid panic among the public.
Interaction between social and more conventional media helped to expose these data. Development of drought
management plans is a rather slow process that takes years, which cannot be speeded up to cope with an emerging
drought. Findings from the 2018 drought should warn policy-makers and water managers to increase preparedness
and (i) to take existing scientific knowledge more quickly on board (e.g. seasonal forecasting), (ii) to target monitoring
more to drought, (iii) to equally balance between surface water and groundwater, and (iv) to make data better
accessible. We also learnt that the academic community should progress on: (i) drought impact forecasting rather than
only hazard forecasting, (ii) including drought in a multi-hazard setting, and to improve knowledge on droughtgenerating
processes and modelling.
Len Shaffrey NCAS, University of Reading
Has climate change increased the chance of events like the 1976 North West European drought
occurring?
The 1976 NW European summertime drought was preceded by a sustained dry spell through the winter and spring of
1975 and 1976. The summer of 1976 was characterised by a continuation of the dry spell combined with an extreme
heatwave. The combination of heat and lack of water had numerous impacts across many sectors including public
health, agriculture and water resource management. Understanding how climate change might be impacting on the
frequency or severity of extreme events is a question of interest to water resource managers, regulators and the
general public. In this study, climate model experiments have been performed to assess whether climate change is
increasing the probability that events like the 1976 North West European might occur again. These experiments
suggest that increased anthropogenic forcing since the 1970s has dramatically increased the probability of
summertime heat waves. However, climate change has also decreased the probability of an extended winter and
spring dry spell preceding a summertime drought. The combined effect of climate change on temperatures and rainfall
is that an event such as the 1976 North West European drought is substantially more likely in the present-day climate
compared to the 1970s.
Rob Wilby Loughborough
Challenging the mantra of wetter winters, drier summers in the UK
My talk will draw upon a recent re-examination of the widely adopted EWP series, and constituent records, led by
Conor Murphy at Maynooth. I will also refer to other work that I have done on evaluating rare droughts from historic
records, as part of the approach now implemented by UK water companies in their drought resilience planning.
Speakers
Day 1: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium continued
Massimiliano Pasqui CNR (Italian National Research Council)
A customizable drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting service to support different users’
needs
Massimiliano Pasqui is a climate scientist whose main interests are numerical modelling in support of weather
forecasts, climate data analysis, seasonal forecast predictability and climate change impacts. He participates in a
number of national and international projects in these fields. He is the author of numerous scientific papers on
international journals/books on atmospheric science and climate change mechanisms and impacts in the
Mediterranean basin and Africa. In the last decade he has been engaged as a contract professor in meteorology,
numerical modelling and climatology courses at several Italian universities.
Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma University of Bristol
Novel metric for water stress from the Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite
mission
The GRACE satellite mission recorded time-variability in Earth’s gravity for more than a decade, which can be directly
related to changes in water stored near the surface of the Earth. GRACE maps of water mass change are available at
monthly time scale and have been used to validate hydrology models, close regional water budgets, estimate
groundwater changes and map water stress. Usually the GRACE time series is decomposed into a linear trend and a
periodic signal and then the magnitude of the trend is used to infer the severity of water mass in a region. In this
study we show that such an approach is misleading because catchment scale hydrology also contains inter-annual
signals with decadal frequencies that are also recorded by GRACE. Since the quality-controlled GRACE record is only
about 13 years long, the long wavelength inter-annual signal cannot be co-estimated and will contaminate estimates of
linear trend. Furthermore, the inter-annual behaviour of each catchment is different and, therefore, a catchment
should not be evaluated against other catchments but with respect to its natural variability. Therefore, to quantify
water-stress comprehensively, we propose a novel metric for water stress that uses GRACE trend and inter-annual
variability from a calibrated 62-years-long hydrology model time series. We obtain a global water stress map that
differs markedly from previous GRACE assessments. We find that more than 1.5 billion people in 39 river catchments
are facing severe water stress and this number will rise by 50% in 2025 if current trends continue.
Day 1: Parallel Session 1 Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium
Jamie Hannaford presenting for Katie Smith CEH
Reconstructing historic flow data to inform management
Hydrological models can provide estimates of streamflow pre- and post- observations, which enable greater
understanding of past hydrological behaviour and potential futures. We outline a new multi-objective calibration
method which was derived and tested for 303 catchments in the UK. The calibrations were used to reconstruct river
flows back to 1891 to provide a much longer view of past hydrological variability given the brevity of most UK river
flow records which commenced post-1960. This work provides an exemplar framework for calibrating catchment
models for use in multiple applications. The ~125 year spatially and temporally consistent reconstructed flow dataset
derived for this study will also allow comprehensive quantitative assessments of past UK drought events, as well as
long-term analyses of hydrological variability that have not been previously possible. This will allow water resource
managers to better plan for extreme events, and build more resilient systems for the future.
Lucy Barker CEH
How severe were historic hydrological droughts in the UK? Insights from a systematic
characterisation and ranking of events back to 1891
The relative shortness of river flow records in the UK means that it is not possible to characterise hydrological
droughts prior to the 1960s in many places across the country. We know from individual long river flow records,
regional flow reconstructions and qualitative data that severe hydrological droughts occurred in the late 19th and
early 20th Century; but until recently it hasn’t been possible to identify and characterise these droughts across the
UK. New daily river flow reconstructions for 303 catchments across the UK, dating back to 1891 have enabled
national scale, drought identification and characterisation. For 108 near-natural catchments across the UK, using the
Standardised Streamflow Index for accumulation periods of 3 and 12 months, hydrological drought events over
~125 years from 1891 to 2015 have been systematically identified, characterised and ranked. Extracted events were
ranked according to four characteristics: duration, accumulated deficit, mean deficit and maximum intensity in order
to assess how the events compare when different aspects of severity were considered. These results provide an
unprecedented view of drought severity in the UK, shedding light on those events outside of the observed period
(e.g. the early 1920s) and that are poorly documented in qualitative sources (for example the droughts of the 1940s).
This extended understanding of past droughts is crucial to inform the planning and management of future events,
aiding the development of scenarios outside the range of those seen in observed data and providing benchmarks
against which to compare current and future events.
Speakers
Day 1: Parallel Session 1 Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium continued
Dr John Bloomfield British Geological Survey
Characterising effects of major episodes of drought on groundwater at national to continental
scale
Major droughts have profound social, economic and environmental impacts. For example, the most recent major
drought in the UK from 2010 to 2012 was the driest 18 months for over 100 years. The two dry winters caused
record low groundwater levels, and, as a consequence, seven water companies in England had to impose temporary
use bans, colloquially known as ‘hosepipe bans’, on ~20 million people in spring of 2012 with the environment and
farming sector significantly adversely effected. The effects of drought on groundwater yields are monitored and
modelled by water companies at the individual borehole to water company scale. However, major episodes of
drought, such as the 2010-12 event, have large spatial footprints and there is potentially significant benefit to be gained
from an improved and more coherent understanding of groundwater drought status and impacts at the national to
continental scale. We describe approaches to the standardisation of groundwater level hydrographs to enable analysis
of groundwater level response to major episodes of drought at the national to continental scale. This is first illustrated
with data from the Chalk aquifer of the UK. We then present some initial results from the Groundwater Drought
Initiative (GDI), a new pan-European research collaboration. The GDI is producing the first continental scale synthesis
of groundwater level data from across Europe with the aim of assessing spatio-temporal changes in groundwater
drought status from 1960 to the present and the impacts of groundwater drought at the European scale. Finally, we
consider some of the challenges particular to analysis and understanding of groundwater droughts and their impacts at
the national to continental scale.
Matt Fry CEH
The Historic Droughts Inventory: an accessible archive of past drought impact information for the
UK from diverse documentary sources (Matt Fry, Nuria Bachiller-Jareno, Carmen Dayrell, Helen
Baker, Delores Rey Vicario, Bettina Lange, Rebecca Pearce, Lucy Barker, Steve Turner, Simon
Parry, Jamie Hannaford)
Documentary sources can provide a wealth of information on the occurrence, severity and impact of past droughts.
Sources including religious texts, financial records, newspapers, administrative accounts and early meteorological
commentaries have been used to demonstrate the reconstructions of past drought, providing evidence of spatiotemporal
variability in drought during periods with little or no climatological records (Brazdil et al). The content of
documentary sources can also provide information on the contemporary impacts of drought that is not available from
meteorological or hydrological records and can therefore be used to corroborate existing information on drought
severity and provide a basis for understanding the evolution of resilience to drought in human systems across
different sectors. The Historic Droughts Inventory is a collation of instances of reporting on UK drought from diverse
sources including legislative records (Hansard), agricultural press (Farmers Weekly, Farmers Guardian), contemporary
drought reports, personal histories and historic newspapers from 1800 to 2015. The Inventory has been created
through a variety of methods appropriate to the volume and focus of the original sources, based on manual curation
of drought-related articles (for the legislative texts and agricultural media) to automated processing (historic
newspapers and online bulletins). The resulting information has been consistently formatted to enable comparison
between these “sectors”, following that of the existing European Drought Impact Report Inventory (Stahl et al),
allowing for comparison with other databases of recent drought impacts. Geospatial information has been extracted
from impact texts where possible to locate the impact and allow for comparison with spatial extents of droughts in
the hydro-meteorological records. More than 50,000 drought impacts have been collated and the datasets archived in
publicly accessible research archives. An online tool has been created to enable the Inventory to be searched by date,
location, or search term (e.g. “Barley”, “Reservoir”), allowing the temporal and spatial occurrence of drought from
the viewpoint of impacts to be visualised. This tool has potential for use for educational purposes as well as by
drought researchers and historians.
Speakers
Day 1: Parallel Session 1 Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium continued
Elizabeth Brock Met Office & Katharine Smart Anglian Water
What does stochastic rainfall generation and Bayesian extreme value analysis mean for Water
Resource Planning
For the Water Resources Management Plan 2019 (WRMP19), Anglian Water assessed the return period of historical
and stochastic droughts with particular reference to ‘severe’ or 1 in 200 year return period events. This required reanalysis
of historical events using up-to-date extreme value techniques, as well as the development and analysis of
stochastically-generated droughts which were different in nature and severity to historical references. This talk
discusses the Met Office’s role as a leader in weather and climate science, with advanced expertise in statistical
analysis of extreme events such as multi-year drought, in providing supporting information to Anglian Water for their
WRMP19 which addresses current and future risk of water scarcity in their catchment areas. This includes: An
evaluation of a stochastic rainfall dataset using a spatially and temporally coherent generator1 in the context of
drought planning and an outline of further statistical methods that were applied to the generator configuration
regarding application of an atmospheric climate pressure index; Discussion of the difficulties associated with evaluation
of return levels for multi-year drought events and introduction of the prototype Bayesian extreme value analysis
method it has used in order to overcome these challenges; Potential further developments of the Bayesian Extreme
Value analysis technique and other statistical analysis techniques available to drought planners to assess drought in the
context of a changing climate will be discussed; A final word on methods applied to the rainfall generator dataset so
that Anglian Water could evaluate the potential risk associated with future climate change using UKCP09 and how
this might differ given the more recent outputs of the UKCP18 project. 1. Serinaldi, F. and Kilsby, C.G., 2012. A
modular class of multisite monthly rainfall generators for water resources management and impact studies. Journal of
Hydrology 464-465, p. 528-540
Dr Christopher Nankervis Weather Logistics Ltd
Use of Copernicus seasonal climate forecast model data to improve the accuracy of long-term
forecasts: the UK Summer Rainfall Insights project
Summer rainfall variability is the most common cause of agricultural losses, accounting for production losses of up to
30%. Salads and field vegetables are especially prone to dry summers with demand on water resources. Combined
with high temperatures that stunt crop growth, summer droughts can wreak havoc for the supply of fresh produce to
our supermarkets. With access to Copernicus seasonal climate forecast model data, we now have the ability to
improve the accuracy of long-term forecasts by combining open source model data with field- level climate and
historical daily data records. This stands to revolutionise the way that farmers operate to better optimise their crop
production through actionable decisions. With more accurate long-term forecasts large-scale growers can better
select sites based on soil moisture availability, delay sowing, select drought tolerant crops or better plan their water
resources. The result is a future of farming less vulnerable to the seasonal weather variability, higher yields and
sustainable produce for British supermarkets. Our European Space Agency-funded project, UK Summer Rainfall
Insights (UKSRI), aims to develop a new summer rainfall forecasting service for release in summer 2019. This will
provide daily rainfall analytics at the field-level, providing early information about upcoming droughts in the UK.
Ragab Ragab CEH
Study of the drought risk in different UK catchments under future climate and land use changes.
Ragab, Ragab; Afzal, Muhammad1; Blake, James1 and Kaelin, Alexandra.1
This study aimed at investigating the impact of climate and land-use changes on drought severity for different
catchments across the UK from North to South and from West to East namely, Eden, Don, Frome, Bevills Leam,
Pang, Ebbw and Fowey. A physically based distributed catchment-scale model (DiCaSM) was applied. The catchment
area of the studied catchments varied from over 150 km2 to over 300 km2. In all studied catchments the severity of
the historic droughts was most obvious in the 1970s, as well as those of the late 1980s, the 1990s, 2003 and 2012.
The severity of the drought varied from one catchment to another, mainly due to the geographical location of the
catchment, seasonal variability of the rainfall, prevailing temperature and land use practices. The DiCaSM model was
calibrated using the measured stream flow. For most of the studied catchments the Nash- Sutcliffe efficiency factor
(NSE), as an indicator of goodness of fit, gave a value of above 0.9 during the model calibration period, and a NSE
value above 0.80 over the entire study period (approx.1961-2012) during the validation process. The uncertainty
analysis supported the good model performance result as the measured streamflow fell within the model envelope of
5 and 95% likelihood-weighted quantiles with acceptable containment ratio (CR).
[Continued overleaf]
Speakers
Day 1: Parallel Session 1 Climatology and Hydrology – Pichette Auditorium continued
[Ragab continued from previous page]
For the future time periods (the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s), under UKCP09 low, medium and high emission scenarios,
annual river flow decreased up to 10% with significant variation between the seasons. For instance, summer stream
flow under high emission scenarios for the South-East catchments decreased by 50% by the end of century whereas in
the North the decrease was slightly below 30%. Although climate models projected an increase in winter
precipitation, this increase was outbalanced by the increase in evapotranspiration. Overall, in all studied catchments
water losses by evapotranspiration significantly increased leading to an increase in soil moisture deficit and a decrease
in the streamflow and groundwater recharge. Modelling results revealed that under the climate change projections,
soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration would increase under medium and high emission scenarios; also the
frequency and severity of the drought would be higher. The impacts of the land use changes on water resources, such
as stream flow and ground water, had less severe impact than the impact of climate change. However, for sustainable
food production, there is a need to replace highly water- consuming crops with drought tolerant crops in order to
produce adequate yield and minimize the impact of climate change. These findings could help in planning water
resources, devise better water management and provide important information for decision makers, water managers,
policy makers and stakeholders, as well as in mitigating the climate change impact on water resources availability.
Day 1: Parallel Session 2 Drought Impacts – The Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor)
Kirsti Ashworth Lancaster University
The effects of the hot, dry conditions of 2018 on natural ecosystems: findings from Wytham
Woods, Oxfordshire
On 22nd June, 2018, the UK Met Office officially declared a heatwave across the British Isles. Hot, dry conditions
persisted in southern England until 8th August with temperatures amongst the highest recorded and many areas
experiencing ~60 consecutive “dry days”. While the impacts of these conditions on agricultural productivity were
widely reported, less attention was given to the effects on natural ecosystems. Here we report the findings of a
measurement campaign in Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire, during the 2018 growth season (May-Oct). Oxford
University’s long-term ecological research site at Wytham Woods is a mixed deciduous woodland, dominated by
native UK tree species, particularly oak, beech and hazel. Measurements were made at multiple heights from a 15m
high walk-up platform in a closed-canopy old-growth area. Concentrations of CO2 and the plant volatile isoprene
were measured continuously at 0.53 (ground-level), 7.3 (understorey), 13.2 (mid-crown) and 15.3m (top of canopy)
above ground. These were supplemented with occasional leaf gas exchange and volatile sampling via a LiCor-6400.
These samples were subsequently analysed in the laboratory by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS).
Key meteorological variables (air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), relative humidity and
windspeed) were also recorded. Satellite retrievals of normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and
photochemical reflectance index (PRI) were used as an indicator of ecosystem health. Overall we found that volatile
emissions tracked photosynthesis early in the season, increasing substantially as temperatures rose. As the drought
intensified, photosynthesis and isoprene emissions abruptly dropped, indicating the woodland had reached a threshold
of water availability. Following this, isoprene emissions became decoupled from gas exchange and by August had
virtually ceased. Both NDVI and PRI showed the same time series, with a marked drop coinciding with the
“shutdown” observed on the ground. While canopy-scale photosynthesis recovered quickly to pre-drought levels on
re-wetting, isoprene emissions did not resume suggesting depletion of carbon stores within the trees. Our results are
consistent with the hypothesis that isoprene protects plants from oxidative stress associated with high temperature
but they additionally indicate a tipping point beyond which plants no longer invest in isoprene synthesis, thereby
potentially exacerbating temperature effects during prolonged heatwaves.
Jill Thompson CEH
Impact of reduced rainfall on the growth and development of plants in British semi-natural
grassland: a rainfall manipulation study
As part of the Drought Risk and You project (DRY project) a field experiment was set up on two locations within
each of three river catchments; the Bristol Frome, Sheffield Don and Fife Eden. Metal frames were used to support
clear Perspex gutters that were arranged so as to intercept approximately 50% of incident rainfall. Similar frames but
with roofs that allowed all rainfall to pass through allowed us to assess any effects of the frames and roofs, while plots
without frames and roofs were untreated controls. The experiment ran for three years from October 2015 to
October 2018. Automatic weather stations were used to record weather conditions, especially rainfall and soil
moisture within the experimental plots. Plant growth and development was monitored by biomass sampling, recording
species composition and % cover and measurement of the height of selected species. Preliminary examination of the
data from the Frome catchment suggests that where the sward has a rich species composition it was able to tolerate
reduced water supply over the three year period, and there were subtle differences in the response of different
species at the sites.
Speakers
Day 1: Parallel Session 2 Drought Impacts – The Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor) continued
Daniela Anghileri University of Southampton
Strengthening research capabilities for addressing water and food security challenges in
sub-Saharan Africa
Most of the communities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism for
their livelihoods and, as such, they are very vulnerable to weather and hydrological variability. Droughts are indeed
amongst the main causes of fatalities and economic losses in SSA. To effectively address water and food security
challenges, it is necessary to understand the complex interactions between the available water resources, including
both blue and green water; the resilience and coping strategies of the local communities to water scarcity and the
large scale impact of national and regional policies on food availability and access. The project “Building research
capacity for sustainable water and food security in drylands of sub-Saharan Africa” (BRECcIA) is a collaborative
research programme which aims at advancing knowledge of food and water security in three SSA countries: Ghana,
Kenya and Malawi. The project is funded under the Research Councils of United Kingdom (RCUK) Global Challenges
Research Fund (GCRF) programme call for growing research capability to meet the challenges faced by developing
countries (GROW). BRECcIA comprises 6 universities located in 4 countries (UK, Malawi, Kenya and Ghana), and
partnerships with 8 international organisations to carry out impactful and high- quality research aiming at positive
changes in policy and practice for sustainable water and food security. This contribution presents the BRECcIA
project, the methodological framework to address water and food security based on the co-production of the
research questions and activities among the different institutions involved in the project and a series of different
stakeholders (from local communities to policy makers), its expected outcomes and impacts, and some preliminary
results on water resources and drought assessment in the three SSA countries.
Stephen McGuire The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)
Assessing the impacts of water scarcity in North East Scotland through the summer of 2018. R.
Gosling*, S. McGuire*, I. Milne* and M. Wann* * Scottish Environment Protection Agency,
Graesser House, Fodderty Way DINGWALL IV15 9XB
The summer of 2018 saw the most prolonged water scarcity event in North East Scotland for decades. Coming off
the back of two consecutive dry winters, low summer rainfall accompanied by higher than average temperatures led
to widespread impacts across the region. The River Spey was at or below a very low flow level (Q95) for 76 days in a
row, the longest such period in its 66-year record. Furthermore, the period of soil moisture deficit across the region
stretched from mid-April to mid-November, a full month longer than in the hot, dry summer of 1976. This paper
presents some of the record-breaking statistics of the 2018 event and reports on the evidence of both ecological and
socio-economic impacts that resulted from it. These impacts ranged from severe wetted river habitat shrinkage to
high water temperatures and fish deaths, and from the cessation of whisky production to crop failure and private
water supply issues. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency has a key role to play in reporting water scarcity
information, coordinating the collection of evidence and liaising with water users where action needs to be taken to
protect the water resource and water environment and maintain supplies for as long as possible. These actions are
set out in Scotland’s National Water Scarcity plan and this paper will look at the implementation of this plan in its first
major test since its adoption.
Frederick Otu-Larbi Lancaster University
Modelling the effects of drought stress on photosynthesis and latent heat fluxes. Frederick Otu-
Larbi (1), Adriano Conte (2), Kirsti Ashworth(1), Oliver Wild(1), Silvano Fares(2) (1) Lancaster
University, United Kingdom (2) Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Italy
Water availability is an important factor in plant processes such as photosynthesis, transpiration and carbon
assimilation. Plants exposed to drought stress show diminished growth and productivity. However, ecosystems that
are routinely subjected to drought stress have developed adaptations to minimise the impacts of low water
availability. Mediterranean climates are characterised by high temperatures and prolonged droughts during the
vegetative season, making them ideal for studies that focus on modelling the impact of water deficit on plant
physiological processes. We incorporate an empirical formulation to account for water stress into three methods of
estimating plant physiological processes within a one-dimensional canopy-exchange model (FORest Canopy-
Atmosphere Transfer; FORCAsT): the empirical Jarvis-type model (JV) and the semi-empirical approaches developed
by Ball-Woodrow-Berry (BWB) and Medlyn (MD). We tested our models with data from two forest sites with
Mediterranean climates where continuous measurements of plant physiological parameters such as latent heat (LE)
fluxes and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) have been ongoing for several years: a Holm oak forest located inside
the Presidential Estate of Castelporziano (CPZ), Rome, Italy and a Ponderosa pine forest at Blodgett, on the
California Sierra Mountains, USA. We evaluate the ability of each model formulation to estimate latent heat fluxes and
gross primary productivity (GPP) at each of these sites, first without and then with the impact of soil moisture deficit..
Our results show that for both sites, the inclusion of the effects of low soil water availability in the summer improves
model estimates of LE and GPP. This agrees with previous findings from laboratory experiments and modelling studies
and highlights the need to incorporate drought stress effects in land surface models.
Speakers
Day 1: Parallel Session 2 Drought Impacts – The Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor) continued
Susan Davies University of Edinburgh
Effective risk management against the threat of drought impacts on the Scottish timber industry
This requires the provision of quantified information on the probabilities and consequences of drought in a form that
supports policy and strategic decisions on the choice of tree species that provide the greatest resilience against
this threat. Our innovative approach derives location-specific risk versus return comparisons of 20 commercial timber
species in Scotland by quantifying the impact of drought risk under a high emission climate change scenario, to
potential return modelled as change in volume of timber production. Sitka is the main timber species in Scotland
accounting for over half of current commercial plantations. We assess whether the yield potential of Sitka spruce is
likely to be sufficiently high to cover its relatively high susceptibility to drought compared to rival species over the
next rotation, and whether its dominance is likely to continue into subsequent rotations in regions predicted to
experience high water deficits. We identify whether there are viable alternatives to Sitka during the next rotation
with a higher drought tolerance defined as within a threshold of 90% of Sitka’s yield. Since diversification increases
resilience against other risks (such as pest and diseases), our analysis provides strategic regionally coherent
information on suitable alternatives to Sitka that increase resilience. Such a risk management strategy would help
protect commercial softwood timber volume production in an industry worth almost £1billion per year to the
Scottish economy. The modelling approach outlined could easily be used to assess alternative timber species in other
regions where comparable data is available.
Peter Kettlewell Harper Adams University
Mitigating drought impact on crop yield by applying film-forming polymers
Irrigation is used to mitigate or eliminate drought impacts on only about 20% of the world’s crop area. Most of the
crop area is thus dependent on rain and more-prone to short-term drought impacts. Members of the Drought
Mitigation Group at Harper Adams University are researching a potential mitigation method, applying film-forming
polymers, for drought impacts in rain-fed cropping. This method can, however, be detrimental to plant growth and for
many years has only been used on ornamental plants, where growth and yield is less important than in crop plants.
The novelty in our research is to time the application just before the most drought-sensitive stage of crop plant
development, when detrimental effects on growth are more than offset by reduced water stress. We have shown
benefits in common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), with as much as a 42%
improvement in crop yield in one experiment on droughted wheat. Current research is investigating the mechanism
of this technique, in order to define more-clearly the circumstances which can reliably lead to mitigation of drought
impacts on crop yield in rain-fed agriculture.
Speakers
Day 2: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium
Kerstin Stahl University of Freiburg
Customising drought indices to improve drought impact monitoring and prediction
Drought risk management, including monitoring and early warning, still relies primarily on drought indicators selected
or combined from hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, and in fewer cases on modelled soil moisture,
observed or modelled streamflow, or remotely sensed vegetation health. To guide the selection and give more
meaning for drought management decisions, a number of studies have investigated empirically the linkage between
these indices and records of drought impact occurrence. These studies have been inspired by the damage function
approach employed in risk assessments of other natural hazards. Based on studies in Europe and the USA this
contribution illustrates challenges and potentials of validating the suitability of indices with impact information,
customizing thresholds for warnings and finding impact-indicator link functions that may be suitable for a prediction of
the probability of impact occurrence. Impact information was derived from large archives of text-based, coded impact
reports, such as the European Drought Impact report Inventory and the US Drought Impact Reporter and links and
link functions were analysed at various spatial scales for various subsets of impact types and drought events. The
identified challenges include the rapid decrease of data when subsetting for specific impact sectors or smaller spatial
areas, the choice of the link model, and a variety of potential dynamic changes to the underlying conditions between
and even during drought events. Based on the assessment, recommendations for a successful and applicable link model
include in particular a careful pre-processing of index and impact data and more systematic impact data collection in
the future.
Mike Morecroft Natural England
Drought impacts on the natural environment and lessons for climate change adaptation
The Earth’s climate has changed as a result of greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change, even if emissions
are successfully and quickly reduced. Adaptation to climate change is therefore essential and an increasingly
recognised priority in environmental management and policy. An increased risk of drought, especially during hot, dry
summers is one of the key aspects of climate change that we need to adapt to in the UK. Over the last few decades
there have been a number of periods of drought and we can look at how these affected the natural environment to
get a better understanding of the threats we face. This shows that drought affects a wide range of ecosystems and
species. Amongst species some are adversely affected but others can benefit. The risks are greatest when a dry
summer follows a dry winter as soil water and flow in rivers is already low at the start of the summer. The Impacts
are however modified by soil type, catchment and management. The indirect effects of drought, such as increased
abstraction and, as graphically shown in the summer of 2018, increased wildfire risk, can be just as important at the
drought itself. Looking to the future, there are a range of potential adaptation measures including: wetland
restoration, reducing abstraction, better control of water levels in protected sites and diversification of tree species to
decrease risks to woodland. Climate change adaptation can’t be a stand-alone activity, it needs to be thoroughly
integrated into the way organisations operate and I will illustrate this from our work in Natural England.
Ian Holman Cranfield University
Taking lessons from the 2018 drought forward into increased drought resilience in the agricultural
sector
The 2018 drought had widespread and varied consequences for all parts of the agricultural sector in the UK. This
presentation looking back at 2018 will cover four main components. Firstly, the unusual meteorological characteristics
of 2018 that proved so challenging for UK agriculture will be described. Secondly, a quantitative analysis of the wide
range of impacts of the 2018 drought on the livestock, rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems will be described,
based on reporting within specialist sector publications, identifying both negative and positive impacts of the drought.
Thirdly, the range of short-term coping and longer term strategic reported responses to the drought will be
described. Finally, building on the preceding analyses and recent interviews with farmers, the presentation will reflect
on three lessons from the 2018 drought and how they might be taken forward to support increased drought resilience
in the agricultural sector: (1) the need for improved strategic planning at all levels and scales, from farm to catchment
to supply chain; (2) the need to enable best use of licenced water during drought through improved forecasting,
monitoring and evidence-based decision making; and (3) the need to enable the continuing de-synchronisation of
irrigation demand and irrigation abstraction through investment in winter storage.
Speakers
Day 2: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium
Anne van Loon Birmingham University
Feedbacks between drought and society
An important aspect of sustainable management of future droughts is reducing vulnerability and increasing
preparedness and resilience. However, little is known about drought vulnerability and resilience and how these change
over time. The main obstacles are a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. In this presentation, I
show examples of research that aimed to distinguish and visualise (changes in) vulnerability. For communities,
preparation to future droughts is challenging as it can be hard to envisage future drought and possible impacts.
Barriers exist in the exchange of experience and knowledge between groups within a community or between
community and government actors. We combined narrative techniques and hydrological model scenarios to reveal
people’s vulnerabilities to drought and explore routes to future resilience. This approach allowed participants to use
their imagination of future drought events and exchange ideas for drought preparation between different
intergenerational groups and professional occupations. The narratives were a useful tool in conversations with
government representatives about including community vulnerability in drought management. For society, it is
important to be aware of unintended consequences of management measures that focus on reducing the hazard.
Building reservoirs for water supply can possibly lead to counterintuitive dynamics that should be considered: supply–
demand cycles and reservoir effects. The former describe instances where increasing water supply enables higher
water demand, which can offset the initial benefits of reservoirs. Reservoir effects include cases where over-reliance
increases vulnerability, and therefore increases the potential damage caused by droughts. These examples show that
increasing our understanding of the drivers and effects of drought vulnerability is crucial: we need to know more about
the feedbacks between drought and society to develop sustainable management of future drought events.
Fiona Lobley Environment Agency
2018 dry weather and its impacts; looking ahead to 2019
In 2018 the UK started with drought conditions in Kent then, after a wet spring, came the hot, dry summer
bringing drought to the North West. The incident spread westwards across the country. Over that period the
Environment Agency and others invested significant time and resource into managing and responding to the event.
The EA responded to five times the normal number of environmental incidents, granted drought permits to water
companies and applied for a drought order to protect the environment. The incident is not over. Many parts of
the country have seen improvements in reservoir storage but concerns remain for groundwater levels and filling
farmers’ reservoirs. Overall January and February 2019 have had below average rainfall, especially in central and
eastern of England. This has meant a delay to the recharge of groundwater stores and we are now faced with low
groundwater levels stretching from Berkshire through to Norfolk heading into the spring. Farmers are very
nervous about the risk of drought in 2019 and, for most, below average rainfall will reduce production and
increase costs. Even with typical rainfall, we could see environmental impacts in 2019 due to a lag in response from
the dry weather in 2018. There is also a potential for cumulative environmental impacts if we were to experience
another dry summer this year. Without higher than average rainfall over the coming months we could experience
significant impacts on the environment, navigation and the agricultural sector.
Speakers
Day 2: Parallel Session 1 Drought Planning & Management – The Pichette Auditorium
Lindsey McEwen UWE & DRY
Integrating science and narratives: a new interdisciplinary approach to develop drought mitigation
strategies
Drought - a diffuse, slowly progressing and pervasive hazard - is a complex ‘high stakes’ risk that is increasing in the
Anthropocene. As a natural phenomenon, drought can happen anywhere at any time, while also socially constructed
through overuse of water supplies. Issues exist in using specialist science as the dominant evidence- base in: framing of
drought risk communication as “knowledge deficit”; managing drought risk; and mitigating actual droughts. This
presentation explores how, and by what processes, scientific and narrative evidence on drought risk and drought
mitigation might be brought together to support better decision-making for UK drought risk management (DRM) and
more widely. It provides a methodological review of critical points of connection between science and narrative
within the interdisciplinary DRY project (Drought Risk and You), exploring issues that we have had to address in
developing our methodology to innovatively “bridge the knowledge gap”. This paper appraises the decisions in
bringing narrative and science iteratively into the same space as DRY’s “engaged”, participatory methodology has
played out, set against opportunities and barriers for drought risk communication and the nature of “narratives”. We
explore potential for science-narrative interaction in terms of “past”, “present” and “future” drawing across
exemplars from different methodological concerns: conceiving narrative as data and data as narrative; working with
science as stimuli for narratives (and vice versa); interdisciplinary and inter-professional systems thinking; exploring
roles of visualisation in risk and complexity; co-developing “bite- sized drought science”; scenario-ing to bring
narrative and science together in iterative engagements; co- developing local catchment-based drought impact indices;
and co-designing DRY’s “Utility” that draws on science and narrative to support better multi-stakeholder decisionmaking.
This requires cognisance of different ways “evidence” could be used in DRM, building up from individual
household level to non-statutory and statutory organisational decision-makers.
Miranda Foster & Granville Davies Yorkshire Water
Water resources in Yorkshire, UK in 2018: drought management, perception and communication
2018 was an interesting year for water resources management in Yorkshire. Although we are considered to be one of
the most resilient regions in the country when it comes to drought, the severity of the hot and dry weather
experienced from May to August 2018 (in particular), led to a rapid decline in our regional reservoir stocks. At times,
the downward curve of reservoir levels mirrored that from the last significant drought experienced in the region, that
of 1995/96. Despite the significant water resources challenge that the dry weather and at times high demands caused
us, we did not hit formal triggers in our drought plan for either implementing Temporary Use Bans (TUBs) or
requiring drought permits. This was, in part, reflective of the major investment that we made after the 1995/96
drought, leading to the creation of our regional grid system which allows us to move significant quantities of water
around our region. Although we did not hit our formal triggers, by early autumn – and after a very dry October – we
made the decision to submit a number of applications for drought permits. These were intended to help our reservoir
stocks recover over the winter period, by reducing reservoir compensation flows and allowing us to continue to
abstract water from key rivers. This paper will explore lessons learned from the 2018 drought in Yorkshire. In
particular, we will look at issues that we will consider when updating our drought plan to enhance our resilience in
the future. We will review the drought from beginning to end, considering how decisions were made at each stage,
what influenced those decisions and how we worked with the Environment Agency during this challenging time. This
will include looking at the information gathering process and use of common data sources – such as CEH’s online
drought portal – to create evidence to support applications for drought permits. Further, the paper will explore
issues around perception and communication in periods of drought. We will consider how our communications
campaign evolved through the year and how we communicated with key external stakeholders and with our own
colleagues.
Amanda Fencl University of California, Davis presenting for Ruth
Langridge University of California, Santa Cruz
Groundwater management in planning for drought: experience from California, USA
Groundwater is a critical water supply source during drought when it compensates for reduced surface water
supplies. At the same time, there is less groundwater recharge. The result in California is that groundwater levels and
storage have decreased over time and many groundwater basins are both degraded and depleted. Declines are
primarily focused during droughts with recovery at other times. Climate change will exacerbate these declines with
projections for higher temperatures and extreme droughts by the end of the 21st century. This will alter the natural
recharge of groundwater including decreased inflow from runoff, increased evaporative losses, and warmer and
shorter winter seasons. These changes will exacerbate already existing groundwater overdraft in many groundwater
basins. Moreover, many areas in the state rely heavily on imported surface water from the Central Valley Project and
State Water Project for groundwater recharge and consumptive use, and this water is projected to be less reliable
and more expensive in the future.
[Continued overleaf]
Speakers
Day 2: Parallel Session 1 Drought Planning & Management – The Pichette Auditorium continued
[Amanda Fencl continued from previous page]
This paper explores how groundwater management agencies in California are planning for drought, and new
approaches currently being used that show promise for addressing the more extreme droughts projected under
climate change. First, the paper provides a review of the research on drought and groundwater management in the
state including strategies currently used to address drought. Second, case studies illustrate newer and varied
approaches being used to reduce drought impacts. Highlighted are the different strategies used by groundwater
managers to increase storage that can then be used for drought reserves to reduce vulnerability to the extreme
droughts projected under climate change. Two additional case studies discuss the limits of a drought reserve strategy
and indicate that more is needed to address the range of basin conditions and varied needs of communities reliant on
groundwater. The different approaches presented in this paper to increase groundwater storage specifically for use
during drought are important first steps to proactively manage groundwater to adapt to the higher temperatures and
future extreme droughts projected under climate change.
Mark Smith Hydro-Logic Services (International) Ltd
Recent trends in water resources planning and management
Droughts have potentially huge consequences for the economy, society and the environment. Yet, in being relatively
low frequency and ‘chronic events’ (rather than being short and sharp episodes like floods), they are typically ‘back of
mind’ for many customers and the public until the consequences come to the fore. The Water Resources
Management Plan (WRMP) and Drought Plan processes have served both the industry and society well to date.
However, as we increasingly plan for a more uncertain and volatile future, the process of decision-making and
engagement on risk has the potential to be increasingly challenging also. This presentation reflects on recent trends in
water resources planning and management, and the rising importance of planning processes in reflecting the
‘consequences’ of relevance and interest to customers and stakeholders. In many cases, these can draw on existing
tools and methods to maximise their value in application. The development of new approaches, including linking to
concepts such as natural capital, has the potential to more effectively explore the balance between cost (to intervene)
and avoidance of consequences. Additionally, it potentially enables better dialogue with customers and the wider
population. This paper will also reflect on the challenges and pitfalls of engaging on low frequency events that seem set
to become more frequent, and will address the question as to how communication of risk in future might serve to
help the industry collectively tackle future challenges of drought and water scarcity.
Sevilay Topcu Cukurova University
Implementing Drought Management in Turkey: an institutional pathology
Located in a semi-arid zone, Turkey is highly and increasingly prone to extreme drought events. Turkey has signed the
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in 1994, ratified in early 1998. The first road map
and national action plan in accordance with the convention was prepared by the Turkish Ministry of Environment and
Forestry in March 2005. In 2011, a special unit, the Directorate of Combating Desertification was established under
the (then) Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs to prepare and implement long-term policies and national action
programmes. This first national action plan however failed to meet the performance criteria in terms of
implementation, monitoring and assessment of the planned actions by 2013. Hence this plan was updated in
partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organisation, financed by the Global Environment Fund, to align Turkey’s
National Action Plan with UNCCD’s 10-Year Strategy and reporting process in 2014. On paper, Turkey’s
management plans to combat drought and desertification are impressive. Their implementation however leaves much
to be desired. Despite droughts being slow-onset, and therefore often predictable (disaster) events, droughts are
subject to crisis management rather than disaster risk management, comprising all stages in the Disaster Risk Cycle.
This contribution highlights a key reason for this poor implementation: the dysfunctional dynamic institutional
landscape in Turkey for drought management. Drought management is distributed over a wide range of institutions,
governed by a plethora of laws and regulations. There are also gaps in the existing water legislation as a whole, and
current laws do not clearly assign authority and responsibility for water-related matters. Sufficient data and an
efficient monitoring system for drought and desertification are lacking. Inter- institutional and inter-sectoral data
sharing, monitoring and traceability has not been fully established. Lack of data and analysis is the primary obstacle for
institutions to develop the appropriate strategies and policies. Additionally, the responsible institutions and even intrainstitutional
directorates are poorly coordinated amongst themselves. The institutions may compete over
responsibilities and resources. Moreover, the relevant water, agriculture, food, forestry and health ministries and
relevant central and local institutions are reorganised every few years, impairing institutional learning and memory in
the drought domain. Accordingly, official evaluations show low levels of motivation and dedication in the involved
public officers due to incessant and unpredictable reshuffles.
Speakers
Day 2: Parallel Session 1 Drought Planning & Management – The Pichette Auditorium continued
Caroline King The Borders Institute & GeoData Institute co-authored with
Daniel Tsegai Programme Officer, UNCCD Secretariat
A review of methods for drought impact and vulnerability assessment
Droughts emergencies are occurring with increasing frequency and magnitude globally. Their economic and social
impacts are underestimated, particularly in the marginal dry areas of developing countries. Where drought risk
assessment and management are inadequate, drought menaces exacerbate threats to global security and well- being.
In the framework of a UN-Water Initiative on ‘’Capacity Development to support National Drought Management
Policies’’ (NDMP), the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (UNCCD) and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
have initiated a review of approaches and methods for drought impact and vulnerability assessment. This review
explores the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches, tools and methods for assessing drought impact and
vulnerability at the national, local and global levels. Such assessments should be integrated across sectors, scales and
timeframes, and should include particular consideration of the most vulnerable groups. They should reveal adaptation
capabilities, priority actions to enhance them and the economic case for these actions. Findings suggest that many
published assessments fall short in their consideration of the longer-term impacts and vulnerabilities associated with
hydrologic and socio-economic drought. These impacts and vulnerabilities are man-made via urban development and
land and water management patterns. They are therefore largely preventable or manageable. Recommendations focus
on the opportunity for improved international knowledge exchange and capacity building in developing countries to
enhance drought impact and vulnerability assessment. International processes such as the IPCC are playing a critical
role in building capacities for the assessment of loss and damage associated with meteorological and agricultural
droughts. However, the national Parties to the UNCCD and its Drought Initiative could do more to focus the
attention of sovereign scientific processes on pre-emptive assessments of the man-made hydrologic and socioeconomic
vulnerabilities to drought. This should enable better informed actions at all levels to stop preventable
drought crises from exacerbating threats to the global economy and security.
Speakers
Day 2: Parallel Session 2 Drought Impacts/Communities, Risk Perception & Communication –
Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor)
Kevin Grecksch University of Oxford, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies
Achieving water efficiency through social norms in the public sector
Water efficiency is a cornerstone of water resources management and public water supply. Yet typical water
efficiency campaigns in England and Wales are aimed at private domestic customers and private businesses. In
addition, existing water efficiency campaigns focus on two key drivers of water-saving behaviour - technological
devices and financial incentives - but leave unexplored the potential of social norms to create behavioural
commitments to water-saving. In our research we focus on community standards held by a group of water users in
relation to efficient water use, with such norms formed and applied, in settings with a public character, e.g. in the
work place, educational or NHS institutions. The public sector is interesting for a variety of reasons. The UK public
sector employs more than five million people, it is a diverse workforce and it is this workforce that spends a large
amount of their time in offices or workshops using water for toilets, washing, cleaning or in the office kitchen. The
majority of English and Welsh water companies do include, for example, schools in their water efficiency campaigns
but in the context of either providing audits or technological devices to save water or educational campaigns aimed at
children. Our research focuses on the ‘missing link’ of social norms, i.e. informal understandings that guide and govern
our behaviour in society. We start from the idea that social norms may play a significant role in making technological
devices and economic incentives work for water efficient behaviour. Our research is based on an extensive academic
and grey literature review that included topics such as water efficiency, water behaviour, the use of behaviour change
methods, social norms and resources efficiency strategies in the public and private sector, for instance energy saving
initiatives. The grey literature included documents by WaterWise, Ofwat, Defra, EA and other regulatory bodies. We
conclude that water-saving behaviour is influenced not just by individual decisions, but social and psychological drivers
such as social norms, values, group behaviour and external factors: culture, family behaviour, infrastructure and
regulations. This is reflected in current theoretical approaches, which we reflect upon. How behaviour change is
framed and communicated is another important factor in order to change behaviour and we will discuss tools such as
water-saving competitions to increase water-saving behaviour, for example between schools or departments. Thus,
reference group thinking, for example by people sharing a working space, can be a motivational factor in its own to
save water. The presentation will also discuss our main output, a Primer document aimed at water companies,
regulators and policy makers (Defra, EA, NRW, Ofwat) and water-related NGOs and industry bodies, such as
WaterWise, Friends of the Earth, WWF, Water UK or UKWIR.
Ruth Larbey UWE
Engaging consumers around water scarcity and water saving
Public water companies in the UK operate within a fine balance – tasked with keeping the taps on, they also have a
keen understanding of the actual extent and sustainability of the UK’s water resources – and with that comes a
responsibility and a drive to communicate these factors to the public. This spoken presentation will feed back the
results of research into water company practices to engage consumers around water scarcity and water saving.
Gathered via interviews with UK water companies’ communications teams, it will profile some of the latest and most
innovative trends and practices, in order to contribute to a multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary conversation about
how to develop the UK’s water resilience.
Sandra Santos Wageningen University
Improving institutional frameworks integrating local initiatives from communities exposed to
drought and water scarcity in Ecuador
In recent years Ecuador has been particularly susceptible to climate variability and extreme events. In the
transboundary Mira River Basin (MRB) in the North of Ecuador drought and water scarcity are serious hazards. As a
case study, a water project in the Imbabura province, which is in the MRB, was studied to explore various aspects of
how to improve existing institutional frameworks integrating local initiatives from communities exposed to these
phenomena. The data collected was based on local experiences and historical data to better understand rainfall
variability at the local scale. It is also proposed to use the basin water management plan for the water management
authority SENAGUA to support decision-making.
The information shows poor involvement from the community-based organizations (irrigation boards), indirectly
triggering conflicts, e.g. when there is not enough water; when the agreements on collaboration between local
politicians and the communities are unsustainable; or when tension arises between water users over water rights and
claims. As a result, some scenarios were generated by improper management resulting in political considerations
rather than social concerns, leading to several projects to meet the demand for water within an area. This basin, with
a relative high risk to drought, shows: a scaling up on all water scarcity issues and in all their problem dimensions; that
the evaluations that have been carried out on the effectiveness of this project could not fulfil their objective; that all
the institutional elements required to bridge water policies with the needs of the population are not well known. This
research is the first basin overview of the relevant sources concerned drought and water scarcity.
Speakers
Day 2: Parallel Session 2 Drought Impacts/Communities, Risk Perception & Communication –
Harold Lee Room (2 nd floor) continued
Antonia Liguori Loughborough University
Learning around ‘storying water’ to build an evidence base to support better decision-making in UK
drought risk management
While the ‘narrative turn’ is well-cited in the social sciences, and storytelling approaches are embedded in arts and
humanities (A&H) practices, this paper reflects on learning around ‘storying water’ gained within the interdisciplinary
DRY (Drought Risk and You) project. Over four years, DRY has worked to expose and incorporate ‘the hidden
story’ – in terms of both type of risk (diffuse, pervasive) and ‘less heard’ voices (different publics, sectors,
knowledges), to build an evidence base to support better decision-making in UK drought risk management. This has
been underpinned by meaningful co-production and participatory research approaches. DRY has worked across seven
UK case-study river catchments, along hydro-meteorological and other gradients, exploring how storytelling might
help reframe (indeed commence, in some cases) different drought discourses. This presentation reflects critically on
challenges and opportunities in developing context-driven storytelling approaches, the different research evidence
they garnered (e.g. on drought myths; cultural water behaviours; systemic thinking; science-narrative interactions) and
the knowledges they can unearth for those in research, policy and practice. Whilst DRY faced opportunities and
challenges in adapting well-established storytelling methods, our processes built in iterative opportunities to reflect
collectively on, and confront, what can be understood as ‘storytelling’. This involved adopting and re-adapting multiple
narrative approaches, with the awareness and willingness to take risks and receive unexpected responses. Our
processes aimed to advance knowledge on how drought - past, present and future - impacts different communities in
nuanced ways, and importantly, their potential agency in adaptation. Alongside, statutory resilience organisations are
now developing ‘communication’ campaigns that require better understandings of ‘storying methods’ in exploring
people’s wider water relations.
Prof Paul Whitehead University of Oxford
Impacts of climate change on water quality affecting upland and lowland rivers, wetlands and delta systems
There are likely to be significant impacts of climate change on water quality affecting upland and lowland rivers as well
as wetlands and delta systems. Changing precipitation, temperature and flow regimes will alter catchment dynamics
flushing increased loads of diffuse pollutants into rivers. Such changes will also alter dilution downstream, enhancing
the concentrations of point source pollutants in dry flow periods. Changing temperatures and residence times will
alter chemical kinetics speeding up organic decay processes, which will affect oxygen regimes and thereby ecology.
These impacts could be serious and demand alter management and control strategies to ensure water scarcity is not
additionally limited by water quality issues.
Cedric Laize CEH
The relationship between a drought-orientated streamflow index and a series of riverine biological indicators
Relationships between a drought-oriented streamflow index and a series of riverine biological indicators have been
investigated at c80 sites in England and Wales in order to assess: (i) the impact of drought conditions on river
ecosystems; (ii) whether the streamflow index could be used successfully as an early-warning indicator of drought
impact on river ecosystems. Results show some significant, albeit limited, response to drought conditions as well as
antecedent conditions (eg flow indicator 6 months before, 12 months before). Overall, when flow conditions are
drier, biological indicators decrease. Decrease magnitude varies greatly and at some sites, the actual ecological impact
is limited. There are some significant but limited patterns of the biological indicator response slope to flow in terms of
catchment characteristics.
Jaeyoung Lee University of Oxford
Water quality modelling in the Severn-Thames river systems and assessment of the impact of a water
transfer in drought
Water quantity and quality are often dealt with as separate issues. Water resources management plans aim to ensure
a secure water supply over some future planning horizon, whilst setting aside sufficient water to allow a healthy
aquatic environment in rivers. However, the health of the aquatic environment is also profoundly influenced by water
quality and in a changed climate. Changes in water quality will vary dynamically and spatially and a process-based
modelling approach is required to understand the complexity of interactions, especially during drought periods. A key
water resource issue for the future in the UK is the supply of water to London over the next 50 years. Whilst a new
infrastructure is being considered an alternative plan is to transfer water from the Severn to the River Thames.
Possible issues include the risk of supply and impacts of the transferred water on the Thames and water supply. The
aim of this modelling study has been to assess water quality variables including dissolved organic carbon, nitrogen and
phosphorus in the Thames and Severn and the impacts of water transfers from in drought or low flow years. The
Integrated Catchments Model (INCA) models have been set up for both the Severn and the Thames and the model
calibrated against observed flow and quality data for the purpose of study. A set of hypothetical water transfers have
then been considered. The impacts of the water transfers are fairly minimal under normal flow conditions. However,
during drought years a rise in the Thames is likely to occur. Although the model results do not show an imminent
issue, future drought conditions and climate change might stress the system towards a more problematic situation.
Posters
Peter Cook, Emily Black & Anne Verhoef University of Reading
Variations in the West African Monsoon from reanalysis and model results
Rainfall in West Africa is strongly seasonal and since at present many people have no other water for irrigation it is
important to understand the variations in the monsoon. Large interannual and decadal variations in the amount of
rainfall are seen in ERA-Interim reanalysis, and in the results from the Met Office Unified Model (GA3) ensemble of
high resolution atmosphere-only model runs with the JULES land-surface scheme and OSTIA sea-surface temperatures
(UPSCALE). This work is part of BRAVE2, "building understanding of climate variability into planning of groundwater
supplies from low storage aquifers in Africa (second phase)", funded under the NERC/DFID/ESRG Unlocking the
Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro) program.
John Bloomfield & Matthew Ascott British Geological Survey
Understanding the impact of climate change on borehole yields from fractured aquifers
This is essential for future water resources planning and management. Although the impact of changes in hydraulic
conductivity with depth (VKD) on groundwater levels is well established, the relative significance of climate change and
VKD on borehole yield estimates is poorly understood. We hypothesize that VKD exerts a significant additional
control on borehole yields under climate change which has not been considered in yield assessments to date. We
developed a radial groundwater flow model of an idealised pumping borehole in the fractured Chalk aquifer of southeast
England, and applied 11 VKD profiles based on a simple conceptual representation of variability in hydraulic
conductivity with depth in the Chalk. For each VKD profile, we applied 20 climate scenarios and six constant pumping
rates for the period 1962 – 2014. We then estimated borehole yields based on the derived lowest pumping water
levels during key drought years (e.g. 1976). We show that VKD is more significant than changes in climate in
controlling lowest pumping groundwater levels. Hydraulic conductivity is as significant a control as climate on borehole
yields, although responses are highly non-linear associated with pumping water level-pumping rate curves intersecting
key yield constraints (e.g. pump intake depth, major inflow horizons). It is recommended that variations in hydraulic
conductivity with depth are taken into consideration in future assessments of borehole yields under climate change.
The approach presented is generic and can be applied across different aquifers where vertical heterogeneity is present.
Catherine Grasham University of Oxford
A transdisciplinary approach to understanding drought risks in the Awash River basin,
Ethiopia
The Awash River basin in Ethiopia is of high economic importance in the country, with productive activities
contributing around 30 percent to national GDP. Population growth, urbanisation, irrigation expansion and emerging
industries are putting pressure on the quality and quantity of available water resources. Drought and flood events are
endemic and their management is critical for mitigating water risks and achieving sustainable development. This
research paper offers a transdisciplinary approach to a more holistic understanding of drought risks. Previous research
has used global, regional and basin scale hydro-climatic models to inform decision-making around optimum investments
for drought management. However, these analyses have often overlooked the varying benefits to different water users
(domestic, irrigated agriculture, rainfed agriculture, industry, livestock). This research co-produces knowledge across
disciplines using basin scale climate hazard mapping, water resources modelling and risk perspectives from interviews
and discussions with different water users at the woreda (district) level. We find that risk is not homogenous and
consists of social, economic and cultural dimensions. The adaptive capacity of water users is influenced by water
source, access to water technologies and position in the basin. Water users utilising groundwater were found to be
more resilient and industries with sophisticated water pumping technologies experienced less impact on production
during a drought year. Attempts to mitigate risks upstream were exacerbating negative impacts on downstream
groups. We have found that a transdisciplinary research design allows drought risk thresholds to be developed for
different water users, which is necessary to support equitable water management outcomes. Our findings are
particularly relevant for decisions makers concerned with ensuring that investments to mitigate drought risks benefit
the poor.
Posters
Emma Cross, Emma Neachell & Tom Entwistle Environment Agency
The 2018 heatwave; responding to and managing the impacts on people and the
environment in Thames Area
June and July 2018 saw exceptional temperatures across Thames Area – in common with most of the UK. These hot
and dry conditions extended into early August, and resulted in the summer being the joint warmest on record for the
UK. The Environment Agency’s (EA) role is to monitor, report and act to reduce the impact of such periods of
prolonged dry weather on people and the environment. We manage and coordinate our response to prolonged dry
weather and its impacts through the Thames Area Drought Plan. As the heatwave escalated in June, Thames Area
received an increase in reported environmental incidents relating to dry weather. In response to this, the drought
team, made up of multi-disciplinary specialists was convened. The drought team decided that sufficient indicators in the
Drought Plan had been met to progress to a prolonged dry weather incident. Thames Area continued to respond to
environmental incidents related to exceptional temperatures throughout July and into August. There were numerous
reported incidents of blue-green algal blooms in rivers and lakes and associated reports of fish in distress. Some
resulted in emergency fish rescues. To help farmers (and other abstractors), a more flexible approach to water
abstraction was adopted. Whilst the heatwave largely dissipated in August, dry conditions in the preceding months
meant that the River Thames Waterways team experienced operational challenges balancing the needs of navigation,
public water supply and the environment. Dry weather related impacts were focused around the Upper Thames,
where the Oxford Watercourses Low Flow Operating Procedure was put in place to protect watercourses around
Oxford. Although Thames Area only received 47% Long Term Average (LTA) rainfall between May and October,
November saw 123% of the LTA rainfall. In spite of this, month-end soil moisture deficits remained above average
resulting in negligible recharge to groundwater. This in combination with hydrological projections, meant that the focus
switched to planning for continued dry weather. The EA is currently using reasonable worst case scenarios from
monthly hydrological projections to assess the water situation for the end of winter and early spring.
Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Rob Hope, Daniel Olago & Simon
Dadson University of Reading
Finding sustainable water futures in the Turkwel River basin, Kenya under climate change
and variability
Climate uncertainty, land use, demographic, and political changes increasingly present defining challenges to water
resources planning worldwide. The challenges are most acute in low-resource contexts with limited data,
unpredictable rainfall, and unmet water needs for the vulnerable and poor. Here a novel decision-scaling approach was
applied to model hydro-climatic risks in the Turkwel River basin, Kenya, where frequent droughts and rapidly growing
water demand cause high level of water scarcity. A climate response surface was constructed by combining a water
resource system model, historical climate data, and a range of water demand scenarios. Results show that climate
variability and increased water demand are each important drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Increases in water
demand due to expanded irrigation exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource
supply requirements. In all cases considered, irrigation expansion has negative implications for domestic supply
requirements in the rapidly growing Lodwar town and environmental flows. The climate response surface offers a
visual and flexible tool for decision-makers to understand the ways in which the water resource system responds to
climate variability and development scenarios. Policy decisions to accelerate water-dependent development and
poverty reduction in arid and semi-arid lands that are characterised by rapid demographic, political and economic
change in the short- to medium term have to promote low-regrets approaches that incorporate longer-term climate
uncertainty.
Ayilobeni Kikon National Institute of Technology Karnataka
Application of Optimized Machine Learning Technique in Drought Forecasting Using SPI
Drought indices are crucial for addressing its disruptive consequences that include creating havoc on the economy,
agriculture, health, and environment, among others, leading to other cascading vulnerabilities. Therefore, drought
forecasting or analysis becomes very essential in assessing the future drought events and risk assessment in any region.
In this study, precipitation data from 1964-2013 is used for assessing drought in Jodhpur district of Rajasthan, India. A
hybrid model of Genetic Algorithm-Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (GA-ANFIS), Particle Swarm Optimization
- Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (PSO-ANFIS) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) has
been developed to forecast the drought using 6-SPI, 9-SPI and 12-SPI. The performance analysis of the different models
of GA-ANFIS, PSO-ANFIS, and GRNN for 6-SPI, 9-SPI, and 12-SPI were compared. By comparing all the three models
with different input combination, the results show that GRNN gave the best performance result having an R2 value of
0.93 for 6-SPI, 0.95 for 9-SPI, and 0.96 for 12-SPI. In this regard, GRNN mark itself as a tool to perform prediction and
comparisons of performance, making it reliable owing to its ability to converge the underlying function of the data with
the availability of few samples.
Posters
Nikos Mastrantonas, Simon Parry & Jamie Hannaford CEH
Luke Harrington University of Oxford
Drought Libraries for enhanced resilience in long term water resource planning in the UK
Long-term planning of water resources has been a key requirement of the providers of water supplies, and this is
extremely important nowadays. In the UK, the water companies are required to produce management plans on a fiveyear
cycle, ensuring consideration has been given for both present and future demands and constraints. Moreover,
there is a need to test water supply systems against the ‘worst historical’ drought event and consider those ‘beyond
historical’ that might occur in future. However there is no agreed methodology for determining the worst historical
event, and each water company may use different datasets to reach an answer. Given this lack of consistency, there is
interest in rationalising the approach to answer questions relating to drought affecting multiple neighbouring water
companies and around the feasibility of large-scale water transfers.
This need is addressed by the UK Droughts & Water Scarcity Programme, which supports improved decision-making
and communication in relation to droughts and water scarcity for a range of sectors. Capitalising on new improved
national-scale data for extensive historical and future timeframes, consistently derived ‘drought libraries’ are
developed.
These drought libraries are sets of events across a range of severities, durations and spatial domains, facilitating the
exploration of questions around the temporal and spatial coherence of drought. Due to the extended historic period
(to 1862), the libraries provide the opportunity to characterise recent events in their wider historical context.
Moreover, information about possible future droughts, with climate model projections up to 2099, can inform
stakeholders on the expected severity of future events. This study demonstrates the applicability of the drought
libraries through case study catchments in southern England. The results show the severity of a specific historical
drought event varying notably across different rainfall accumulation periods, showing that reference events should be
carefully selected. Moreover, the future projections indicate that the drought hazard will be intensified in this part of
the UK. The application of nationally consistent drought libraries in assessments of resilience to past, present and
future droughts will maximise the benefit in managing the UK’s national water resources, and begin to address some of
the critical questions around how to reconcile the often competing demands from society, economy and environment.
Wiza Mphande Harper Adams University
Elucidating Drought Mitigation with Antitranspirants in Spring Wheat
Drought stress has a negative effect on crop yield performance. If drought occurs during reproductive development,
application of antitranspirants improves grain yield in wheat as was shown by Kettlewell et al. (2010). However, the
mechanism by which this is achieved has not been established. The possible explanation could be the negative effect of
ABA on pollen development, as drought triggers increased biosynthesis of this phytohormone (Lee and Luan 2012). In
2018, a field experiment was conducted in the Flatt Nook Field at Harper Adams University (52°46′N, 2°25′W),
Shropshire, UK. Drought stress conditions were simulated using polythene tunnels erected over experimental plots.
Application of Vapor Gard, a film antitranspirant, to spring wheat at three growth stages, GS33, GS45 and GS51,
reduced the endogenous concentration of abscisic acid in flag leaves and improved grain yield. These results suggest
that drought amelioration by antitranspirants is related to reduced biosynthesis or increased catabolism of abscisic
acid. This research has potential to enhance knowledge about drought signalling and designing genetic techniques for
drought tolerance in crop breeding research. Further work is required to determine the effect of Vapor Gard on the
relationship between abscisic acid and pollen and ovary development.
Hattie Roberts, Kirsti Ashworth & Ian Dodd Lancaster University
Felicity Hayes CEH
Brassica napus. L (oilseed rape; canola) is the third most important oilseed crop worldwide, and the most valuable in
Europe, with its products used for food, fodder and fuel. B. napus is considered a thirsty crop, with drought and high
temperatures decreasing seed size and pod number, hence yield . There is increasing concern over its productivity and
continued economic viability as “Mediterranean” conditions spread northwards through Europe. Here we report on
the growth rate, leaf gas exchange and morphology of a spring cultivar of B. napus (cv. Click), grown indoors in semicontrolled
environment growth chambers, and subjected to three different water regimes. Three watering regimes
were implemented 1) well-watered (WW) plants, which were re-watered with 100% of evapotranspiration lost daily;
2) deficit irrigation (DI) wherein plants were watered at 50% evapotranspiration volume daily; 3) drought and rewatering
(DRW) irrigation wherein plants were watered at 50% cumulative evapotranspiration volume every five days.
We also collected samples of plant volatiles emitted from the leaves. These volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are
synthesised and released in response to abiotic stresses such as drought and are thought to protect plant metabolism
and functioning under oxidative stress. We investigated whether these volatiles help maintain productivity during the
application of stress or promote rapid recovery of functioning and growth on removal of the stress, i.e. on rewatering.
Final above-ground masses and leaf area of the both deficit irrigation and plants exposed drought and rewatering
were significantly smaller than well-watered plants, with photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance also
significantly higher in well-watered than deficit irrigation and drought-exposed plants. The emission of certain volatiles
was correlated with water availability.
Posters
Sevilay Topcu Cukurova University
Strategic Comparison of Past and Future Droughts in Turkey
Turkey is strongly and increasingly exposed to drought. Historically, serious droughts occurred as in 1804 and 1876
causing the loss of agricultural production and livestock as well as the migration of affected farmers. Drought-related
famines and diseases in 1876 claimed an estimated 200,000 lives. More recently, serious drought events occurred in
1928, 1973, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1998-2001, 2007, 2008, 2013 and 2017. The present study analyses i) the spatial and
temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, ii) to predict the potential intensity, frequency and duration of
droughts for the future (2070-2100) iii) to compare the past and future drought occurrences with a view to developing
appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. We used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to assess drought
characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 51 stations (representative
of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service. The future rainfall
series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM4) for IPCC’s SRES-A2 scenario
conditions. To determine the likely changes between reference and future periods, the projected future rainfall series
was compared with the average rainfall amount derived from the reference period in SPI calculations. Finally, maps
were drawn to determine the changes in spatial patterns of droughts. The study results showed that drought
conditions are diverse in Turkey, and increasing trends for intensity, frequency and duration were detected. At
regional scale, the Eastern part of Marmara, Black Sea Region and northern and eastern parts of the East Anatolia
Regions are characterized by wetter conditions. Particularly severe drought conditions are expected in the Western
Mediterranean and Aegean Regions, although other regions of the country will also likely be confronted with more
frequent, intense and long lasting droughts. Most rain-fed and irrigated areas and surface water resources are located
in the drought-vulnerable regions of the country. Industrial, touristic, urban and other water uses will also be affected
by the worsened conditions in Turkey. Results of this and similar studies have been integrated into the national
drought strategy and action plans to combat desertification and drought in Turkey.
Harry West, Nevil Quinn, Michael Horswell & Paul White UWE
Examining spatial variations in the utility of SPI as a 3-month-ahead environmental drought
indicator
Droughts are a common meteorological phenomenon and a significant natural hazard. Despite this we lack a common
understanding of the definition of a drought event and a detailed understanding of drought onset and termination. In
its simplest form however a drought can be defined as a deficit of rainfall relative to normal conditions. This rainfall
deficit will eventually propagate through the hydrological system into terrestrial water storage and streamflow. Using
the latest available hydro-meteorological datasets from the UK Droughts & Water Scarcity Programme, this paper
aims to examine the relationship between rainfall deficit (quantified by the standardised precipitation index for a range
of accumulation periods ranging from 1 to 12 months) and environmental drought (quantified by the standardised
streamflow index) in 303 catchments across Great Britain. Through this we identify the rainfall deficit accumulation
periods that are associated with the more severe environmental droughts, and in doing so identify the role of local
catchment characteristics (quantified by the base flow index) in moderating drought frequency and severity. By
developing a spatial understanding of the relationship between rainfall deficit accumulation and environmental drought,
we identify and map the variation in critical SPI accumulation thresholds for estimating environmental drought risk
over the forthcoming 1 to 3 months. The intention is that this will provide water resource managers with a simple tool
to aid effective decision making in drought event management.
Jie Xiang, Martin Hare, Ivan Grove & Peter Kettlewell
Harper Adams University
Understanding mitigation of drought damage to rapeseed from spraying film
antitranspirants
Considering predicted impacts of climate change, the expansion of rapeseed in the major producing countries in
temperate regions, where it is well-adapted, has been reinforcing the need for future tolerance to abiotic stresses such
as water deficit. A number of studies have shown that drought has been exacerbated by climate change with multiple
effects on agriculture, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) has become the third
most important oilseed crop around the world for edible oil, fodder and biofuel production after soybean (Glycine
max L.) and palm oil (Elaeis guineensis L.). It is more sensitive to water stress compared to other crops such as wheat
and barley, especially at its critical reproductive stages. There is increasing evidence that film antitranspirants can
improve the yield of crops subjected to drought compared to unsprayed treatments. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by
which antitranspirants can mitigate against yield loss are not clear. Therefore, a series of experiments will investigate
the underlying mechanism by which film antitranspirants increase the yield of rapeseed under drought conditions,
especially the stomatal functions. Additionally, the data will be related to the mathematical models of gas exchange
from the stomata to exploit the role of film antitranspirants on the regulation of gaseous exchange in rapeseed.
The Projects
Find out more about the
Drought & Water Scarcity
projects
DWS
Projects
dryproject.co.uk
Drought and water shortage can severely affect
us all through impacts on the environment,
agriculture, infrastructure, society and culture.
We started the interdisciplinary DRY project in
April 2014, with the ultimate aim of developing
an easy-to-use, evidence-based resource, to
support decision making for management of
drought risk in the UK for a range of end-users.
The DRY project spanned seven catchments
within England, Wales and Scotland to reflect
different hydrological, socio-economic,
environmental and cultural gradients in the UK.
Unlike many other investigations which focus
solely on mathematical modelling of drought
risk and a single sector, the DRY project has
taken a unique approach, bringing together
different aspects of drought science and multistakeholder
storytelling to better understand
.
drought risks, the trade-offs among different
management options and the tipping points that
determine their outcomes.
A key part of DRY’s research was to bring
together different types of data to build a
comprehensive picture of how drought risk will
affect a range of different UK regions at
catchment and local scales. To achieve this goal,
DRY incorporated a two-way process for
gathering and sharing local drought knowledge.
Stories about water resources and drought
were stimulated through memories of historical
drought events, discussions around drought
images, citizen science and imagining the
possible outcomes of drought which arise from
the hydrological drought models iteratively
developed in the team. The stories themselves
then provided contexts that fed into our
mathematical hydrological drought models
through which we explored scenarios of what
might happen in potential future droughts.
Outputs from our research include the DRY
project Utility, a resource to support decisionmaking
which incorporates the DRY’s
searchable Story Bank; the DRY Story Map; and
DRY Guidance on its approach alongside papers
in wide-ranging journals across disciplines.
The project leader is Professor Lindsey
McEwen, from UWE Bristol.
@Project_DRY
DWS
Projects
historicdroughts.ceh.ac.uk
Historic Droughts aims to develop a crossdisciplinary
understanding of past drought
episodes that have affected the UK, with a view
to developing improved tools for managing
droughts in future.
Drought and water scarcity are significant
threats to livelihoods and wellbeing in many
countries, including the UK. Parts of the country
are already water-stressed and are facing a wide
range of pressures, including an expanding
population and intensifying exploitation of
increasingly limited water resources. In addition,
many regions may become significantly drier in
future due to environmental changes, all of
which implies major challenges to water
resource management. However, droughts are
not simply natural hazards. There are also a
range of socio-economic and regulatory factors
that may influence the course of droughts, such
as water consumption practices and abstraction
licensing regimes. Consequently, if drought and
water scarcity are to be better managed, there
is a need for a more detailed understanding of
the links between physical (i.e. meteorological,
hydrological) and social and economic systems
during droughts.
With this research gap in mind, the Historic
Droughts project has been developing an
interdisciplinary understanding of drought from
a range of perspectives. Based on an analysis of
information from a wide range of sectors
(hydrometeorological, environmental, agricultural,
regulatory, social and cultural), the
project has characterised and quantified the
history of drought and water scarcity since the
late 19th century.
The project has developed the first systematic
account (the UK Drought Inventory) of past
droughts in the UK. The Inventory is the basis of
a novel joint hydrometeorological and socioeconomic
analysis that is leading to a ‘systemsbased’
understanding of drought – i.e. an
understanding of the multiple and interconnected
drivers of drought, the impacts of
drought and the feedbacks between them.
We expect this systems-based understanding to
improve decision-making for future drought
management and planning, and to facilitate more
informed and effective public discourse related
to drought.
The project leader is Jamie Hannaford at the
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH).
@HistDroughtsUK
DWS
Projects
aboutdrought.info
IMPETUS brings together scientists from the
meteorological, land surface, surface water and
groundwater communities and social scientists
from the water demand and forecast usability
communities.
The project involves internationally-leading
scientists and social scientists from three NERC
Research Centres (the National Centre for
Atmospheric Science (NCAS), the British
Geological Survey (BGS) and the Centre for
Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), four leading
universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and
Southampton), the Met Office and the European
Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF).
IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK
drought on monthly to decadal timescales, by
improving meteorological, hydrological and
water demand forecasts and how they are
combined to produce drought forecasts. This
will be done in conjunction with stakeholders to
ensure that drought forecasts are relevant for
decision making.
The project leader is Professor Len Shaffrey
at University of Reading.
@AboutDrought
DWS
Projects
mariusdroughtproject.org
The span of the MaRIUS project is large and
covers physical and social science topics
including: drought governance; drought options
and management; community responses and
environmental competency.
MaRIUS has developed new methodologies,
datasets and models for the analysis of drought
and water scarcity impacts on river flow, water
quality, ecology, farming, the economy, and how
these combine to affect people.
It includes climatic aspects of drought and the
derivation of a synthetic ‘drought event library’;
hydrological responses both on a catchment and
national scale; effects on water quality including
nutrient concentration in rivers and algal
concentrations in reservoirs, and effect of land
use change; the ramifications on water
resources on the Thames catchment and also
nationally. It includes the impact of drought and
water scarcity on terrestrial and aquatic
ecosystems; agriculture and farming; the
economy; and on electricity production.
Some researchers in MaRIUS are using scenario
modelling and case studies across a number of
scales to understand both the drought impacts
at a local level as well as the institutional
decision-making by governments and water
companies.
The modelling work uses climatically rigorous
drought scenarios and their impacts on water
quality, agriculture, biodiversity and economic
losses.
In addition to computer modelling, social
science and stakeholder engagement are a key
part of the project, helping us to understand the
role of the community, institutions, regulators
and markets in drought management.
The project leader is Professor Jim Hall at
the Environmental Change Institute,
University of Oxford.
@AboutDrought
DWS
Projects
ENDOWS
aboutdrought.info
Engaging diverse stakeholders and publics with
outputs from the Drought and Water Scarcity
Programme. ENDOWS brings together the
successful stakeholder engagement elements of
the four Drought and Water Scarcity (DWS)
projects to further develop and promote
understanding of the key messages from the
programme. Building on the activities of DRY,
IMPETUS, MaRIUS and Historic Drought,
ENDOWS is funded by the Research Councils
to inform adaptation and management decisions
before, during and after drought events, using
the new data and findings of the DWS
programme.
ENDOWS has brought these activities together
under the banner ‘About Drought’ an accessible
programme of informed engagement with
regulators, industry, business, policy-makers,
communities and sector organisations.
Knowledge Exchange is a key function of About
Drought, facilitating effective networking
between the research community and
stakeholder communities; encouraging the
building of reliable contacts and stimulating new
working relationships and accelerating the
speed at which the outputs of the DWS
programme are being implemented to support
evidence-based decisions in drought planning
and management.
Thus far, the project has enabled interaction on
and transfer of scientific knowledge and outputs
in the form of resources, information, and/or
tools to water companies, the Environmental
Agency, allotment groups, farmers associations,
and so on. Some of these outputs are being
presented at the About Drought Conference
2019.
The About Drought website is being developed
as an authoritative source of expertise, and as a
publicly available platform for informed
comment and opinion. The About Drought
Twitter account @AboutDrought highlights
drought-related news and opinions from the UK
and around the world.
@AboutDrought
Datasets
The NERC UK Drought and Water Scarcity Programme has released a large number of datasets,
together with interfaces for accessing and visualising data over the web and guidance for use of the
data. For more information on these datasets, please email Matt Fry (mfry@ceh.ac.uk).
Find this information online by clicking here
Historic hydro-
Meteorological
data
• Enhanced historic rain gauge data, and updated 1km rainfall grids back to
the 1860s [Met Office].
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/ukcp/download-data
• Historic catchment average daily rainfall series for selected
catchments, 1861-2015 [Met Office / CEH]
• Historic gridded Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), monthly and
daily 5km grids, 1891-2015, based on temperatures [CEH]
https://doi.org/10.5285/17b9c4f7-1c30-4b6f-b2fe-f7780159939c
• Historic Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), 5km grid +
catchments, 1862-2015 [CEH]
https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/233090b2-1d14-4eb9-9f9c-
3923ea2350ff
• Historic reconstructions of daily river flow for 303 UK catchments
(1891-2015) [CEH] https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f710bed1-e564-
47bf-b82c-4c2a2fe2810e
• Reconstructed/modelled historic monthly gridded river flow and soil
moisture for the UK from the Grid-to-Grid model, 1km grid, 1891-2015
[CEH] https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f52f012d-9f2e-42cc-b628-
9cdea4fa3ba0
• Reconstructed historic groundwater level series for 54 boreholes,
1891-2015 [BGS] https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/ccfded8f-c8dc-4a24-8338-
5af94dbfcc16
• Historic Standardised Groundwater level Index (SGI) for 54 UK
boreholes reconstructed groundwater level time series (1891-2015) [BGS]
https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/d92c91ec-2f96-4ab2-8549-
37d520dbd5fc
Near real-time
droughtrelated
metrics
The following drought-related metrics have been focussed on within the
Drought and Water Scarcity programme, and could become accessible in
near-real time should this be a requirement from users:
• Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), 5km grid + catchments,
monthly [CEH] – already available via the CEH Drought Portal
• Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), selected gauging stations,
monthly [CEH]
• Standardised Groundwater Level Index (SGI), selected boreholes,
monthly [BGS]
• Hydro-ecological drought metrics, under development within the
projects [CEH]
Datasets
Climate change
projection data
Probabilistic time series based on the Weather at Home (W@H) event set
(100 ensemble members for each time slice) for a baseline period (1974-
2004) and two future periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) under the
RCP8.5 high emission scenario.
• Full gridded climate outputs including PET, daily / monthly on ~25km
grid (University of Oxford)
http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/0cea8d7aca57427fae92241348ae9b03
• (Dependent on user requirements) Catchment average rainfall,
temperature and PET for gauged catchments
• Daily river flow series at gauged catchments: Grid-to-Grid [CEH],
Dynamic TopModel [University of Bristol]
https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/5f3c1a02-d5c4-4faa-9353-
e8b68ce2ace2
• Gridded monthly flows and soil moisture from Grid-to-Grid, 1km
grid [CEH] https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/3b90962e-6fc8-4251-
853e-b9683e37f790
• (Dependent on user requirements) Summary grids and maps of this
data, e.g. change factors for future time periods for key statistics
(annual/monthly/seasonal flows, etc.)
• Daily grids of hydrological variables (runoff, soil moisture, etc.) under
UKCP09 climate projections for seven representative catchments across
the UK for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, 2080s), with 100
realisations, modelled with Di-CHASM [CEH]
New Social and Socio-economic datasets
The multi-disciplinary UK Drought and Water Scarcity research programme is also producing a wide range
of data outputs from research activities in many disciplines. Some of these outputs are listed below, and
others will be added as they are produced and identified from the component projects.
Cross-sectoral
inventory of
past droughts
References to past droughts from a variety of sectors, integrated into a
consistent format to capture spatial and temporal reporting of drought:
• References to droughts in the agricultural media. 2000+ entries referring to
drought within UK agricultural media between 1975 and 2012, including
information on farm classification.
• References to droughts in legislation. 500+ entries referring to drought
within UK legislation between 1976 and 2012, from Hansard debates and
other government publications.
• References to droughts in newspapers. Thousands of spatially located
entries referring to drought within local and national newspapers from
1800 to 2014.
• References to droughts in oral histories. 1000 entries referring to drought
from dozens of drought-focussed oral histories from across the UK, from
water industry experts and members of the public.
Database of reservoir construction: a dataset of reservoir construction, with
capacity information, from 1800 to 2000.
Download About Drought
Briefing Notes & Leaflets
Briefing notes:
How to plan and manage water resources for
public water supply: future directions
Leaflets:
Which farming areas of England and Wales are
most at risk from economic losses due to
drought?
Economic impacts of regulatory drought
management on irrigated agriculture
Drought Monitoring & Forecasting
Securing a fair share of water: a strategy for
agriculture and horticulture
D-Risk: helping irrigators manage drought risk
Using your phone to scan a QR code
Crop response to a changing climate
If you already have a QR app on your phone, simply
hold the screen over the code(s) to be taken to the
document(s). You can download a scanner from
your app store.
You can also access the document(s) using the
hyperlinks.
Delegates
First Name Last Name Organisation
Muhammad Afzal CEH
Daniela Anghileri University of Southampton
Danielle Ashby University of Falmouth
Lucy Barker CEH
Pat Barrett Environmental Protection Agency
Peter Baur Shared Water
Pam Berry University of Oxford
John Bloomfield British Geological Survey
Bentje Brauns British Geological Survey
James Brindley Environment Agency
Elizabeth Brock Met Office
Frans Carel Persendt Aberystwyth University
Tim Collins Natural England
Keith Colquhoun Thames Water
Peter Cook NCAS Climate
Stanley Cook SJC Water Consulting Ltd
Séverine Cornillon British Geological Survey
Alexander Cox University of Falmouth
Vicky Crichton Environment Agency
Emma
Cross
Jo Cullen Welsh Water
Vittoria Danino Anglian Water
Granville Davies Yorkshire Water
Susan Davies University of Edinburgh
Richard Davies Environment Agency
Suraje Dessai UK Research & Innovation
Mieke de Wit NERC
Barnaby Dobson University of Oxford
Tracey Dunford Natural Resources Wales
Delegates (cont)
First Name Last Name Organisation
Mason Durant HR Wallingford
Vicky Durbridge NERC
Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma University of Bristol
Tom Entwistle Environment Agency
David Fanner University of Falmouth
Amanda Fencl UC Davis
Miranda Foster Yorkshire Water
Matt Fry CEH
David Garcia-Leon Ca' Foscari University of Venice
Ugo Gasparino RWE npower
Daniela
Gatto-Ronchieri
Helen Gavin Oxford University
Vasileios Giannakopoulos Lancaster University
Richard Gosling SEPA
Alastair Graham Geoger
Catherine Grasham Oxford University
Kevin Grecksch University of Oxford
Ivan Grove Harper Adams University
Eliakim Hamunyela Aberystwyth University
Jamie Hannaford CEH
Richard Hill Environment Agency
Feyera Hirpa University of Oxford
Ian Holman Cranfield University
Anneka Johnson-Marshall Affinity Water
Sunil Kansakar Environment Agency
Ilias Karapanos Affinity Water Ltd
Alison Kay CEH
Delegates (cont)
First Name Last Name Organisation
Ruth Kelman NERC
Peter Kettlewell Harper Adams University
Ayilobeni
Kikon
National Institute Of Technology
Karnataka
Tom King Lancaster University
Caroline
King-Okumu
Cedric Laize CEH
NERC Centre for Ecology and
Hydrology
Bettina Lange University of Oxford
Ruth Larbey UWE
Stefan Le Roy SLR GeoHydro Solutions Ltd
Jaeyoung Lee University of Oxford
Antonia Liguori Loughborough University Arts
Fiona Lobley Environment Agency
Dave MacLeod University of Oxford
Willem Maetens Flanders Environment Agency
Ramona Magno IBIMET-CNR
Mark Manning SDS
Helene Margue The Royal Society
Nikolaos Mastrantonas CEH
Christine McCulloch University of Oxford
Lindsey McEwen UWE
Stephen McGuire SEPA
Rachel Merrix Environment Agency
Stephen
Middleton
Ben Miller ESRC
Ian Milne SEPA
Mike Morecroft CEH
Wiza Mphande Harper Adams University
Delegates (cont)
First Name Last Name Organisation
Gillian
Murphy
Jennifer Murphy Environment Agency
Christopher Nankervis Weather Logistics Ltd
Emma Neachell Environment Agency
Tom Nurick Environment Agency
Fred Otu-Larbi Lancaster University
Affie Panayiotou Affinity Water
Massimiliano Pasqui Institute of Biometeorology
Rebecca Pearce University of Exeter
Kathryn Pharr University of Oxford
Ben Piper Independent
Lizzie Quarmby Environment Agency
Nevil Quinn UWE & Natural England
Ragab Ragab CEH
Duncan W Reed DWRconsult
Gwyn Rees CEH
Hattie Roberts Lancaster University
Leandro
Rocchi
National Research Council -
Institute of Biometeorology
Ali Rudd NERC - CEH Wallingford
Cathleen Ryan Canal & River Trust
Gloria Salmoral Cranfield University
Sandra Santos Valencia Wageningen University
Sunita Sarkar CEH
Len Shaffrey Reading University
Nicky Shale UWE
Jie Shi Environment Agency
Max Simmonds University of Falmouth
Delegates (cont)
First Name Last Name Organisation
Louise
Slater
Katharine Smart Anglian Water Services Ltd
Mark Smith Hydro-Logic Services
Roxanna Snooke South West Water
Kerstin Stahl University of Freiburg
Sally Stevens IEA
Rachel
Stubbington
Samuel Sutanto Wageningen University
Tim Sykes Environment Agency
Maliko Tanguy CEH
Jill Thompson CEH
Sevilay Topcu Cukurova University
Jacqueline Turner South West Water
Steve Turner CEH
Henny van Lanen Wageningen University
Anne van Loon Birmingham University
Lucy Vilarkin Bristol City Council
John Waddingham Environment Agency
Michael Wann SEPA
Jacob Watson University of Falmouth
Doris Wendt University of Birmingham
Harry West UWE
Nik Whalley South West Water
Kevin Wheeler University of Oxford
Pamela White Environment Agency
Paul Whitehead Oxford University
Rob Wilby Loughborogh University
Elizabeth Wilson Oxford Brookes University
Victoria Williams Environment Agency
Tim Woollings University of Oxford
Jie Xiang Harper Adams University
Hong Yang University of Reading
Linnet Zohrabian University of Oxford
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About Drought Conference
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