DelegatePack_DroughtConference_20-21March2019

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Session Chairs Helen Gavin Oxford University Environmental scientist with the Environmental Change Institute & MaRIUS Project Manager Nevil Quinn Associate Professor in Applied Hydrology at University of the West of England (UWE) About Drought Science Coordinator Jamie Hannaford Principal Hydrologist at Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) PI on About Drought & Lead PI on Historic Droughts Lindsey McEwen Professor in Environmental Management at UWE & Lead PI Project DRY Len Shaffrey Senior Scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) & Professor of Climate Science University of Reading PI on IMPETUS Rebecca Pearce Research Fellow, University of Exeter About Drought Social Science Coordinator Ian Holman Professor of Integrated Land & Water Management Cranfield University & Agricultural lead on Historic Droughts
Speakers Day 1: Plenary – The Pichette Auditorium Jamie Hannaford CEH Welcome to the ENDOWS Programme The Drought and Water Scarcity (DWS) Programme is a major interdisciplinary research programme funded by NERC, ESRC, EPSRC, BBRC and AHRC. The Programme commenced in 2014 and ends in 2019 and is now in the final phase, a knowledge exchange project called ENDOWS (Engaging Diverse stakeholders and publics with outputs from the Drought and Water Scarcity Programme). This presentation will illustrate how ENDOWS is working with a very diverse stakeholder community to exploit the datasets, models and methodologies developed within the DWS programme to develop tools and guidance for improved drought management. ENDOWS is structured into various sectoral workstreams (water supply; agriculture; environment; business; communities). A key focus of this presentation will be on how ENDOWS is developing methodologies for long-term drought and water resources planning (e.g. the development of national, consistent ‘Drought Libraries’ and national-scale hydrological and water supply system models) to support the current drive towards more integrated regional- and national-scale water resources planning. The talk also illustrates how ENDOWS is enhancing operational drought management through improved monitoring and early warning of drought, and how this is being co-developed with stakeholders during the ongoing dry weather in 2018. Various other sectoral applications will then be highlighted through examples. Finally, the talk will discuss the innovative approaches being developed to ensure the vast amount of data being generated by the programme are readily accessible to the community. Henny van Lanen Wageningen University & Research The 2018 NW European Drought: warnings from an extreme event Last year Europe was hit again by a severe drought, particularly north-western countries suffered. It became apparent to a wider public that droughts and associated water shortages are not solely preserved for the Mediterranean. Moreover, drought projections increased concerns. A high pressure system above Scandinavia kept depressions causing rain at distance and dry and warm air masses were transported to NW Europe. This weather circulation type is not uncommon for the region, but in 2018 it appeared to be very persistent and lasted several months. Several temperature records were broken, the climatological water deficit exceeded the driest on record in some countries, and significantly affected the water system. Not surprisingly, a wide range of impacts was reported. Drought, as a natural hazard cannot be prevented. However, people are challenged to minimize socio-economic and environmental impacts. An analysis of management of the 2018 drought learnt that not everything was in order everywhere. It was found that monitoring of hydrological variables is not targeted to drought, but in NW European countries it is biased towards floods. Usually the monitoring puts more emphasis on surface water than groundwater. Impact minimization also requires seasonal hydrological drought forecasting. Use of these forecasts is largely underdeveloped by lots of practitioners. Monitoring and forecast data are hard to obtain, which is meant to avoid panic among the public. Interaction between social and more conventional media helped to expose these data. Development of drought management plans is a rather slow process that takes years, which cannot be speeded up to cope with an emerging drought. Findings from the 2018 drought should warn policy-makers and water managers to increase preparedness and (i) to take existing scientific knowledge more quickly on board (e.g. seasonal forecasting), (ii) to target monitoring more to drought, (iii) to equally balance between surface water and groundwater, and (iv) to make data better accessible. We also learnt that the academic community should progress on: (i) drought impact forecasting rather than only hazard forecasting, (ii) including drought in a multi-hazard setting, and to improve knowledge on droughtgenerating processes and modelling. Len Shaffrey NCAS, University of Reading Has climate change increased the chance of events like the 1976 North West European drought occurring? The 1976 NW European summertime drought was preceded by a sustained dry spell through the winter and spring of 1975 and 1976. The summer of 1976 was characterised by a continuation of the dry spell combined with an extreme heatwave. The combination of heat and lack of water had numerous impacts across many sectors including public health, agriculture and water resource management. Understanding how climate change might be impacting on the frequency or severity of extreme events is a question of interest to water resource managers, regulators and the general public. In this study, climate model experiments have been performed to assess whether climate change is increasing the probability that events like the 1976 North West European might occur again. These experiments suggest that increased anthropogenic forcing since the 1970s has dramatically increased the probability of summertime heat waves. However, climate change has also decreased the probability of an extended winter and spring dry spell preceding a summertime drought. The combined effect of climate change on temperatures and rainfall is that an event such as the 1976 North West European drought is substantially more likely in the present-day climate compared to the 1970s. Rob Wilby Loughborough Challenging the mantra of wetter winters, drier summers in the UK My talk will draw upon a recent re-examination of the widely adopted EWP series, and constituent records, led by Conor Murphy at Maynooth. I will also refer to other work that I have done on evaluating rare droughts from historic records, as part of the approach now implemented by UK water companies in their drought resilience planning.
Page 1 and 2: Drought and Water Scarcity: address
Page 3 and 4: Contents 2 4 5 6 7 8 12 13 27 32 33
Page 5 and 6: UK Drought & Water Scarcity Program
Page 7 and 8: Audio Anecdotes “A lot of the hea
Page 9 and 10: Wednesday 20 th March Afternoon Pro
Page 11: Thursday 21 st March Afternoon Prog
Page 15 and 16: Speakers Day 1: Parallel Session 1
Page 21 and 22: Speakers Day 2: Plenary - The Piche
Page 28 and 29: Posters Peter Cook, Emily Black & A
Page 30 and 31: Posters Nikos Mastrantonas, Simon P
Page 32 and 33: The Projects Find out more about th
Page 34 and 35: DWS Projects historicdroughts.ceh.a
Page 36 and 37: DWS Projects mariusdroughtproject.o
Page 38 and 39: Datasets The NERC UK Drought and Wa
Page 40 and 41: Download About Drought Briefing Not
Page 42 and 43: Delegates (cont) First Name Last Na
Page 44 and 45: Delegates (cont) First Name Last Na
Page 46: Thank you for attending the About D

DelegatePack_DroughtConference_20-21March2019

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?