DelegatePack_DroughtConference_20-21March2019

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Posters Peter Cook, Emily Black & Anne Verhoef University of Reading Variations in the West African Monsoon from reanalysis and model results Rainfall in West Africa is strongly seasonal and since at present many people have no other water for irrigation it is important to understand the variations in the monsoon. Large interannual and decadal variations in the amount of rainfall are seen in ERA-Interim reanalysis, and in the results from the Met Office Unified Model (GA3) ensemble of high resolution atmosphere-only model runs with the JULES land-surface scheme and OSTIA sea-surface temperatures (UPSCALE). This work is part of BRAVE2, "building understanding of climate variability into planning of groundwater supplies from low storage aquifers in Africa (second phase)", funded under the NERC/DFID/ESRG Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro) program. John Bloomfield & Matthew Ascott British Geological Survey Understanding the impact of climate change on borehole yields from fractured aquifers This is essential for future water resources planning and management. Although the impact of changes in hydraulic conductivity with depth (VKD) on groundwater levels is well established, the relative significance of climate change and VKD on borehole yield estimates is poorly understood. We hypothesize that VKD exerts a significant additional control on borehole yields under climate change which has not been considered in yield assessments to date. We developed a radial groundwater flow model of an idealised pumping borehole in the fractured Chalk aquifer of southeast England, and applied 11 VKD profiles based on a simple conceptual representation of variability in hydraulic conductivity with depth in the Chalk. For each VKD profile, we applied 20 climate scenarios and six constant pumping rates for the period 1962 – 2014. We then estimated borehole yields based on the derived lowest pumping water levels during key drought years (e.g. 1976). We show that VKD is more significant than changes in climate in controlling lowest pumping groundwater levels. Hydraulic conductivity is as significant a control as climate on borehole yields, although responses are highly non-linear associated with pumping water level-pumping rate curves intersecting key yield constraints (e.g. pump intake depth, major inflow horizons). It is recommended that variations in hydraulic conductivity with depth are taken into consideration in future assessments of borehole yields under climate change. The approach presented is generic and can be applied across different aquifers where vertical heterogeneity is present. Catherine Grasham University of Oxford A transdisciplinary approach to understanding drought risks in the Awash River basin, Ethiopia The Awash River basin in Ethiopia is of high economic importance in the country, with productive activities contributing around 30 percent to national GDP. Population growth, urbanisation, irrigation expansion and emerging industries are putting pressure on the quality and quantity of available water resources. Drought and flood events are endemic and their management is critical for mitigating water risks and achieving sustainable development. This research paper offers a transdisciplinary approach to a more holistic understanding of drought risks. Previous research has used global, regional and basin scale hydro-climatic models to inform decision-making around optimum investments for drought management. However, these analyses have often overlooked the varying benefits to different water users (domestic, irrigated agriculture, rainfed agriculture, industry, livestock). This research co-produces knowledge across disciplines using basin scale climate hazard mapping, water resources modelling and risk perspectives from interviews and discussions with different water users at the woreda (district) level. We find that risk is not homogenous and consists of social, economic and cultural dimensions. The adaptive capacity of water users is influenced by water source, access to water technologies and position in the basin. Water users utilising groundwater were found to be more resilient and industries with sophisticated water pumping technologies experienced less impact on production during a drought year. Attempts to mitigate risks upstream were exacerbating negative impacts on downstream groups. We have found that a transdisciplinary research design allows drought risk thresholds to be developed for different water users, which is necessary to support equitable water management outcomes. Our findings are particularly relevant for decisions makers concerned with ensuring that investments to mitigate drought risks benefit the poor.
Posters Emma Cross, Emma Neachell & Tom Entwistle Environment Agency The 2018 heatwave; responding to and managing the impacts on people and the environment in Thames Area June and July 2018 saw exceptional temperatures across Thames Area – in common with most of the UK. These hot and dry conditions extended into early August, and resulted in the summer being the joint warmest on record for the UK. The Environment Agency’s (EA) role is to monitor, report and act to reduce the impact of such periods of prolonged dry weather on people and the environment. We manage and coordinate our response to prolonged dry weather and its impacts through the Thames Area Drought Plan. As the heatwave escalated in June, Thames Area received an increase in reported environmental incidents relating to dry weather. In response to this, the drought team, made up of multi-disciplinary specialists was convened. The drought team decided that sufficient indicators in the Drought Plan had been met to progress to a prolonged dry weather incident. Thames Area continued to respond to environmental incidents related to exceptional temperatures throughout July and into August. There were numerous reported incidents of blue-green algal blooms in rivers and lakes and associated reports of fish in distress. Some resulted in emergency fish rescues. To help farmers (and other abstractors), a more flexible approach to water abstraction was adopted. Whilst the heatwave largely dissipated in August, dry conditions in the preceding months meant that the River Thames Waterways team experienced operational challenges balancing the needs of navigation, public water supply and the environment. Dry weather related impacts were focused around the Upper Thames, where the Oxford Watercourses Low Flow Operating Procedure was put in place to protect watercourses around Oxford. Although Thames Area only received 47% Long Term Average (LTA) rainfall between May and October, November saw 123% of the LTA rainfall. In spite of this, month-end soil moisture deficits remained above average resulting in negligible recharge to groundwater. This in combination with hydrological projections, meant that the focus switched to planning for continued dry weather. The EA is currently using reasonable worst case scenarios from monthly hydrological projections to assess the water situation for the end of winter and early spring. Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Rob Hope, Daniel Olago & Simon Dadson University of Reading Finding sustainable water futures in the Turkwel River basin, Kenya under climate change and variability Climate uncertainty, land use, demographic, and political changes increasingly present defining challenges to water resources planning worldwide. The challenges are most acute in low-resource contexts with limited data, unpredictable rainfall, and unmet water needs for the vulnerable and poor. Here a novel decision-scaling approach was applied to model hydro-climatic risks in the Turkwel River basin, Kenya, where frequent droughts and rapidly growing water demand cause high level of water scarcity. A climate response surface was constructed by combining a water resource system model, historical climate data, and a range of water demand scenarios. Results show that climate variability and increased water demand are each important drivers of water scarcity in the basin. Increases in water demand due to expanded irrigation exert the strongest influence on the ability of the system to meet water resource supply requirements. In all cases considered, irrigation expansion has negative implications for domestic supply requirements in the rapidly growing Lodwar town and environmental flows. The climate response surface offers a visual and flexible tool for decision-makers to understand the ways in which the water resource system responds to climate variability and development scenarios. Policy decisions to accelerate water-dependent development and poverty reduction in arid and semi-arid lands that are characterised by rapid demographic, political and economic change in the short- to medium term have to promote low-regrets approaches that incorporate longer-term climate uncertainty. Ayilobeni Kikon National Institute of Technology Karnataka Application of Optimized Machine Learning Technique in Drought Forecasting Using SPI Drought indices are crucial for addressing its disruptive consequences that include creating havoc on the economy, agriculture, health, and environment, among others, leading to other cascading vulnerabilities. Therefore, drought forecasting or analysis becomes very essential in assessing the future drought events and risk assessment in any region. In this study, precipitation data from 1964-2013 is used for assessing drought in Jodhpur district of Rajasthan, India. A hybrid model of Genetic Algorithm-Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (GA-ANFIS), Particle Swarm Optimization - Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (PSO-ANFIS) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) has been developed to forecast the drought using 6-SPI, 9-SPI and 12-SPI. The performance analysis of the different models of GA-ANFIS, PSO-ANFIS, and GRNN for 6-SPI, 9-SPI, and 12-SPI were compared. By comparing all the three models with different input combination, the results show that GRNN gave the best performance result having an R2 value of 0.93 for 6-SPI, 0.95 for 9-SPI, and 0.96 for 12-SPI. In this regard, GRNN mark itself as a tool to perform prediction and comparisons of performance, making it reliable owing to its ability to converge the underlying function of the data with the availability of few samples.
Page 1 and 2: Drought and Water Scarcity: address
Page 3 and 4: Contents 2 4 5 6 7 8 12 13 27 32 33
Page 5 and 6: UK Drought & Water Scarcity Program
Page 7 and 8: Audio Anecdotes “A lot of the hea
Page 9 and 10: Wednesday 20 th March Afternoon Pro
Page 11 and 12: Thursday 21 st March Afternoon Prog
Page 13 and 14: Speakers Day 1: Plenary - The Piche
Page 15 and 16: Speakers Day 1: Parallel Session 1
Page 21 and 22: Speakers Day 2: Plenary - The Piche
Page 30 and 31: Posters Nikos Mastrantonas, Simon P
Page 32 and 33: The Projects Find out more about th
Page 34 and 35: DWS Projects historicdroughts.ceh.a
Page 36 and 37: DWS Projects mariusdroughtproject.o
Page 38 and 39: Datasets The NERC UK Drought and Wa
Page 40 and 41: Download About Drought Briefing Not
Page 42 and 43: Delegates (cont) First Name Last Na
Page 44 and 45: Delegates (cont) First Name Last Na
Page 46: Thank you for attending the About D

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