About Drought Handbook: Outputs & Impacts

Credit: United Utilities
THE DWS
PROJECTS
IMPETUS
IMPETUS brought together
scientists from the meteorological,
land surface, surface water and
groundwater communities and
social scientists from the water
demand and forecast usability
communities. The aim of the project
was to improve the forecasting
of UK drought on monthly to
decadal timescales, by improving
meteorological, hydrological and
water demand forecasts and how
they are combined to produce
drought forecasts. This was done in
conjunction with stakeholders to
ensure that drought forecasts are
relevant for decision making.
Skilful forecasting of dry and
drought conditions is critical to
water resource management
and agriculture both in the UK
and globally. A central activity
in IMPETUS was engaging with
stakeholders in the agricultural
and public water supply sectors
to understand their needs for
drought forecast information. A
key result for the public water
supply sector is that understanding
the regulatory context for UK
drought management is essential
for improving the uptake of
drought forecasts. Similarly, the
uptake of forecast information in
the agricultural sector is highly
dependent on forecast skill and the
communication of forecasts in a
relevant and timely manner.
In addition to stakeholder
engagement, IMPETUS has
made advances in the science
of drought forecasting. Working
with stakeholders in the Met
Office and the European Centre
for Medium-range Weather
Forecasting (ECMWF), IMPETUS
has increased our understanding of
the atmospheric and hydrological
conditions that lead to the onset,
maintenance and cessation of
drought events. In addition, IMPETUS
researchers have co-developed new
methods to produce skilful regional
forecasts of UK winter rainfall one
season ahead. These results have
been shared with the Met Office
and ECMWF through a continuing
series of workshops reviewing UK
and European seasonal forecasts.
In addition, IMPETUS has supported
the development of the Ensemble
Streamflow Prediction system,
which has contributed to improved
stream flow forecasts within the
monthly Hydrological Outlook (for
more on the Outlook see page 26).
During the 2017-2018 drought,
researchers from the project
24
provided advice on what we might
expect in 2019-2020. IMPETUS
researchers were also engaged with
the media during the dry spell, which
resulted in numerous newspaper
articles and media briefings to
inform the interested public.
Working with stakeholders from
the water industry, IMPETUS has
also improved our understanding
of domestic water demand in the
UK. One key result was to highlight
the need for improved data on
water usage to constrain models of
domestic water demand.
The project has involved
internationally-leading scientists
and social scientists from three
NERC Research Centres (the
National Centre for Atmospheric
Science (NCAS), the British
Geological Survey (BGS) and the
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
(CEH), four leading universities
(Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and
Southampton), the Met Office and
the ECMWF.
Len Shaffrey