Indian Newslink Digital Issue - April 1 2020

14
APRIL 1, 2020
Communitylink
Longevity worldwide is the scary part of Covid-19
Adam Kleczkowski and
Rowland Raymond Kao
The COVID-19 pandemic has
already caused several thousand
deaths, widespread health
problems, massive anxiety and
economic losses.
Most people are concerned with
what happens day by day as we wait for
control measures to work.
But we should also be concerned
about whether or not we will be living
with the virus for a long time. Will we
be able to eradicate COVID-19, as we did
with Sars? Or will we need to learn to
live with it like we do with the common
cold? We have been experiencing
epidemics and pandemics for centuries,
so there are lessons we can draw from
these examples.
The virus in the long run
To understand what happens to the
virus in the long term, we need to look
at how large epidemics work, starting
with “patient zero.”
If there is significant human-to-human
transmission, the virus begins
to spread, causing a fast increase in
the number of cases (illustrated in the
figure below). At the same time, those
who overcome the disease and develop
resistance are henceforth immune, at
least for a while.
The people who are newly infected
will increasingly have contact with
these immune people, rather than
Italy records high Covid-19 deaths; Coffins at the Ponte San Pietro Hospital in
Bergamo, Lombardy IPA Backgrid)
with those who have not yet had the
disease. This process effectively protects
the susceptible population and causes
the initial fast growth to slow and
eventually stop.
The level of immunity
The level of herd immunity needed
to stop the spread depends on both the
number of contacts an average person
has and how infectious the disease
is. If highly contagious, this can be as
much as 95%. This protection can be
achieved by a combination of reducing
infectiousness through immunity, either
natural or acquired, or vaccination, or
by reducing transmission.
Quarantine and mass restrictions
on travel have proved effective, as
shown in China, where the number of
COVID-19 infections outside of Hubei
province, where it started, have been
few.
What happens next depends on the
disease characteristics and human
actions.
The 1918 flu virus did not persist
after the early 1920s probably because
enough people became immune to
it. However, many pathogens are
difficult to eradicate globally, although
local success is possible. For example,
foot-and-mouth disease, which affects
sheep and livestock, survives in many
countries.
The outbreak in the UK in 2001 was
reduced to local islands of infection by
an animal movement ban and then
eradicated by massive culling.
But it took a long time and high costs
to finally bring it to an end (figure
below). Like many countries, the UK
now has strict rules of animal imports,
aimed at stopping the disease from
arriving again.
Vaccine for coronavirus
It is possible that we will eradicate
National MP marks 550th Anniversary of
Guru Nanak in Parliament
Rahul Chopra
COVID-19 in selected countries or
regions, but not necessarily worldwide.
Although there are hopes that a vaccine
will be successful within the next year,
this is not certain. If it happens, very
stringent travel checks may need to be
imposed for at least a substantial time –
such a restriction, added on to concerns
of the impact of air travel on climate
change, may mean that the tourism
industry may never recover.
Some diseases prove impossible to
eradicate even in the long term and
will persist following the first outbreak
(figure below).
Diseases originating in Europe and
Africa were brought to North America
for the first time in the late 1400s and
early 1500s. Encountering a population
with little immunity, smallpox and other
diseases spread rapidly causing the
collapse of indigenous communities.
Subsequent outbreaks were lower,
but smallpox and measles persisted
until the 20th century.
Seasonal ailments
In temperate climates, seasonal
influenza spreads rapidly through
winter but mostly dies out in summer,
only to come back the following year.
In between outbreaks, the flu virus
survives in Asia from where it emerges
every year.
Large measles epidemics, before
vaccines were available, occurred
every two or three years, interspersed
with small outbreaks (figure below).
The recurring pattern was caused by
people being born all the time without
vaccine protection.
Next winter, when children went
back to school, there were enough
susceptible ones to create a large
outbreak. With mass vaccination of
children, this influx was slowed down
enough to create herd immunity and
almost eradicate the disease.
However, measles is returning
because vaccination levels are falling
below the herd-immunity threshold.
The future of Covid-19
So what is the future of COVID-2019?
While we cannot be sure, mathematical
models help us explore scenarios and
identify potential outcomes, building on
our experience of past outbreaks.
The governments are hoping that a
combination of social distancing, border
closures, isolation of cases, testing
and increasing immunity in the population
will slow down the spread of the
coronavirus and will hopefully open up
successful eradication strategies.
Yet, past experiences suggest that
we may need to learn to live with the
coronavirus for years to come.
Adam Kleczkowski is Professor of
Mathematics and Statistics. University
of Strathclyde based in Glasgow,
Scotland; Rowland Raymond Kao
is Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of
Veterinary Epidemiology and Data
Science at the University of Edinburgh,
Scotland. The above article
and charts have been published
under Creative Commons Licence.
The life and teachings of
Guru Nanak, the founder of
Sikhism were the theme of a
documentary film shown in
Parliament on March 11, 2020.
National Party Member of
Parliament Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi
facilitated the event which was
attended by Head of Chancery and
Second Secretary at Indian High
Commission in Wellington Doss
Jayakumar, National MPs Melissa
Lee and Paulo Garcia, Honorary
Consul of India in Auckland Bhav
Dhillon and community leaders.
A Special Stamp was released on
the occasion.
Guru Nanak’s teachings are valid
today as they were more than 500
years ago. His emphasis on embracing
diversity, welcoming others and
practicing selfless service are timely
as New Zealand and New Zealanders
were marking first anniversary
of the Christchurch massacre of
March 15, 2019.
Youngest Religion
Sikhism, the youngest and the
fifth largest religion in the world, is
made up of selfless volunteers who
obey the teachings of their Guru
and are always ready to help.
Guru Nanak was a visionary, he
spoke of equal rights for women at
a time when this notion didn’t come
to mind of many others.
His words were “Sau kyun manda
aakhiye jit jamme rajan” (How
can we talk negative of women of
our society, when they give birth to
us?’).
Another teaching of Guru Nanak
was on ecology. He constantly
advocated the need to plant trees
and care for our flora and fauna.
Once again this teaching was ahead
of his times.
About Guru Nanak
To an estimated 25 million Sikhs
around the world, Guru Nanak Dev
is one of the greatest leaders who
believed in oneness of mankind
and in the inherent goodness of the
individual.
To millions of people of other
faiths, Guru Nanak Dev is a leader
whose teachings have relevance in
their daily lives as well; teachings
that have transcended time, space
Some of the guests at the screening of the documentary on Guru Nanak in Parliament on
March 11, 2020
and vicissitudes of mankind.
To tens of thousands of
people who even question
the existence of God, Guru
Nanak Dev is a teacher par
excellence and a leader who
led by example.
Such is the greatness of the
spiritual leader that Guru
Nanak Dev is mentioned and
followed with respect even by
people who have embraced
Hinduism, Islam, Christianity
and other faiths.
The 550th birth anniversary
of the Great Guru is still
being celebrated all over the
world.
It is often said that the
wisdom to lead people on
the righteous path comes to
those who have gone through
the various stages of life,
including marriage.
Gautama, who attained
enlightenment to give the
world the great religion of
Buddhism and Guru Nanak
Dev who established Sikhism
as a way of life, were just two
brilliant examples of that
dictum.
The Early Years
Born into a simple Hindu
family (on April 15, 1469), the
founder of the Sikh religion
showed signs of uniqueness
even in his early years.
His father Mehta Kalian
Das was an accountant in
the employment of the local
Muslim authorities.
From an early age, Guru
Nanak made friends with
both Hindu and Muslim children
and was keen to learn
and practice the meaning of
life.
At the age of six, he was
sent to the village schoolteacher
to learn Hindi and
mathematics. He then learnt
Muslim literature, Persian
and Arabic.
He was an unusually gifted
child who learned quickly
and often questioned his
teachers.
His parents conducted the
‘thread ceremony’ when he
attained 13 years of age.
But he refused to wear the
sacred thread.
He said: “Let mercy be
the cotton, contentment the
thread, continence the knot
and truth the twist. O priest!
If you have such a thread, do
give it to me. It’ll not wear
out, nor get soiled, nor burnt,
nor lost. Says Nanak, “blessed
are those who go about
wearing such a thread.”
As a young man herding
the family cattle, Guru Nanak
was known to spend long
hours absorbed in meditation
and in religious discussions
with Muslim and Hindu holy
men who lived in the forests
surrounding Talwandi, a
village in Western Punjab
where he was born.
He would work during
the days, but early in the
mornings and late at nights,
he would meditate and sing
hymns accompanied by
Mardana on the rabab (a
string instrument).
Rahul Chopra is an experienced
Communications and
Stakeholder Engagement
Strategist employed by New
Zealand Parliament and MP
Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi in
his Manukau East Electorate
Office in Auckland
Om Sai in East Auckland (left) and SS Market in Sandringham retail exclusive items
Indian Supermarkets, superettes
are essential services
Venkat Raman
There has never been a doubt that
supermarkets and superettes owned,
operated and managed by people of
Indian origin are considered Essential
Services.
There was considerable confusion this
morning and this report from Indian Newslink
should clarify and set rumours and doubts to
rest.
The government has clarified that ethnic
supermarkets are classified under Essential
Services.
It is apparent that the same principle of
essential services applies to all ethnic supermarkets,
superettes and similar retail stores.
It stands to reason that if dairies, a majority
of which are owned by people of Indian origin
are categorised under essential services, so
should supermarkets and superettes.
Importance of ethnic supermarkets
Ethnic supermarkets import, distribute and
retail a wide range of products that are special
to the communities they serve and these
products are essential ingredients in their
daily diet.
However, all these retail outlets should
follow strict social distancing policy, follow
‘one-in, one-out’ or any other policy applicable
to them and ensure that customers and
those at the cash counter also maintain the
prescribed distance.
This Reporter went around a number of
places including pharmacies, superettes and
supermarkets and noted that these safety
precautions are strictly being observed.
Compliance pleasing
This Reporter also noted that the owners
and workers at these outlets wore face
masks and hand gloves and offered EFTPOS
machines covered, replaced after each
transaction.
All supermarkets, superettes and dairies
must follow all other regulations in force,
including no sales policy related to cooked
food and provisions contained in the Essential
Services list.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has
continuously emphasised against panic buying
assuring that there is plenty of items available
in the country.
Importers of Indian food and household
items have told Indian Newslink that they are
also well-stocked and that retailers should not
hike the prices of essential commodities.
However a word of caution: The situation
can evolve and regulations may change.
Please visit the following website for
updates:
www.covid19.govt.nz/government-actions/
covid-19-alert-level/essential-businesses/
Warning to wrongdoers
We understand that a few Indian grocery
and spice traders have raised the price of
some times.
Readers are requested to please
advise us with proof by email to venkat@
indiannewslink.co.nz so that we can alert the
concerned authorities, including the Police
who are monitoring these outlets.
Our Special Request
Please take care of yourself and those
around you.
Please adopt the Indian traditional style of
folded hands (‘Namaste’) instead of shaking
hands to greet people.
Our country’s safety and good health rests
on our hands.
Together, we can and will come out of
this health crisis stronger and better as New
Zealanders.