And the winners remain China and India

The BECH Index 2020 – Corona version
The IMF predictions
The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the agenda for most businesses in all countries and it is
uncertain what the world will look like on the other side.
This whitepaper is based on the IMF national accounting data and estimates for the period 2014 to
2021 included in the April version of their World Economic Outlook 2 .
The IMF expects a short but
deep contraction on the global
economy in 2020. However, as
you look through the estimates
for the various countries, you will
notice an uneven spread. The
bottom line is that the long-term
trend predicted in my previous
whitepapers have been accelerated.
Industrial demand is moving
east, and the Corona crisis will
leave China and India stronger
than before.
“Because the economic fallout
is acute in specific sectors,
policymakers will need to implement
substantial targeted fiscal,
monetary, and financial market
measures to support affected
households and businesses
domestically. Internationally,
strong multilateral cooperation
is essential to overcome the effects
of the pandemic, including
help for financially constrained
countries facing twin health and
funding shocks, and for channelling
aid to countries with weak
health care systems.”
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2
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
5
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