And the winners remain China and India

The BECH Index 2020 – Corona version
The Corona crisis and the recession
No crisis lasts forever. May that give you some hope and peace of mind.
There is a world on the other side, and it will offer new opportunities if you read it right. However,
before reaching the other side you have to survive the passage. And “reading it right” requires that
you have time to think, prepare and test.
How long will the Corona-restrictions last?
I’m no epidemiologist, but according to the experts, most countries are beyond the point where
you can contain the virus and make it go away. The strategy we are pursuing in Northern Europe is
aimed at having us follow the blue curve. Many of us will get the virus, but not all of us will get it at
the same time and, hopefully, we can spare most of those for whom the consequences may be fatal.
Pursuing the blue strategy, the spread of Covid-19 will be controllable 4-6 weeks after you have
effectively shut down society. The longer you wait and the softer you do it, the longer it takes to
recover and the higher the price you pay in terms of casualties and short falls in the economy.
Based on my research for this article, I expect most of Northern Europe to follow the same paths
while Southern Europe, the UK and the USA will see different developments.
Northern Europe will re-start again by the beginning of May. By then there will still be restrictions, but
the economy will gradually open up. However, nothing will return to normal for a while. International
travel will remain restricted, people will still be restrained from gathering in large crowds, congestions
throughout rush-hours must be avoided, remote working and virtual meetings will continue and the
elderly and people with pre-conditions will have to stay at home.
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