The Trumpet Newspaper Issue 517 (April 22 - May 5 2020)

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Page8 TheTrumpet APRIL 22 - MAY 5 2020 Economy After COVID-19, what will Africa look like in 2030 and 2063? By Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka The COVID-19 pandemic, one of the world’s most significant events, has resulted in cessation of economic activities that will lead to a significant decline in GDP, an unprecedented social disruption, and the loss of millions of jobs. According to estimates by the African Development Bank, the contraction of the region’s economies will cost Sub-Saharan Africa between $35 billion and $100 billion due to an output decline and a steep fall in commodity prices, especially the crash of oil prices. More fundamentally, the pandemic has brutally exposed the hollowness of African economies on two fronts: the fragility and weakness of Africa’s health and pharmaceutical sectors and the lack of industrial capabilities. The two are complementary. This is because Africa is almost 100 percent dependent on imports for the supply of medicines. According to a recent McKinsey (2019) study, China and India supply 70 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s demand for medicine, worth $14 billion. China’s and India’s markets are worth $120 billion and $33 billion respectively. Consider a hypothetic situation where both India and China are unable or unwilling to supply the African market? Africa surely faces a health hazard. The root of Africa’s underdeveloped industrial and health sectors can be encapsulated in three ways. First, some African policy makers simply think that poor countries do not need to industrialise. This group believes the “no-industrial policy” advocates who engage in rhetoric that does not fit the facts. The histories of both Western societies, and contemporary lessons from East Asia, run contrary to that stance. Clearly, governments have an important role to play in the nature and direction of industrialisation. Progressive governments throughout history understand that the faster the rate of growth in manufacturing, the faster the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). From the Economist magazine five years ago: “BY MAKING things and selling them to foreigners, China has transformed itself - and the world economy with it. In 1990, it produced less than 3% of global manufacturing output by value; its share now is nearly a quarter. China produces about 80% of the world’s air-conditioners, 70% of its mobile phones and 60% of its shoes. Today, China is the world’s leader in manufacturing and produces almost half of the world’s steel.” The keyword is “making”. Two, rich countries therefore became rich by manufacturing and exporting to others, including high-quality goods and services. Poor African countries remain poor because they continue to produce raw materials for rich countries. For example, 70% of global trade in agriculture is in semi-processed and processed products. Africa is largely absent in this market while the region remains an exporter of raw materials to Asia and the West. Lastly, African countries are repeatedly told that they cannot compete based on scale economy, and as well, price and quality competitiveness because China will outcompete them. For this reason, they should jettison the idea of local production of drugs, food and the most basic things. The question is: How did Vietnam, with a population of 95 million, emerge from a brutal 20-year war and lift more than 45 million people out of poverty between 2002 and 2018 and develop a manufacturing base that spans textiles, agriculture, furniture, plastics, paper, tourism and telecommunications? It has emerged as a manufacturing powerhouse, becoming the world’s third-largest exporter of textiles and garments (after China and Bangladesh). Vietnam currently exports over 10 million tonnes of rice, coming third after India and China. How is it that Bangladesh, a country far poorer than many African countries, is able to manufacture 97% of all its drugs demand, yet it is next door to India, a powerhouse of drug manufacturing? The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed Africa. African leaders need to look in the mirror and ask where this continent will be in 2030 and 2063. Africa must adopt progressive industrial policies that create inclusive, prosperous and sustainable societies. What then should be done? A three-pronged approached is urgently needed. First, Africa needs a strong regional coordination mechanism to consolidate small uncompetitive firms operating in small atomistic market structures. With a consumer base of 1.3 billion and $3.3 trillion market under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the continent has no choice but to bring together its fragmented markets. Second, Africa needs to build better institutions, strengthen weak ones and introduce the ones missing. No better wakeup call is required than the present pandemic. Third, one important institution that has been abruptly disrupted is the supply chain for medicines and food, for example. Logistics for transporting capital and consumer goods across the region need predictable structures. Building or strengthening supply chains involve fostering and providing regulations for long-term agreements and competences that leverage both private and public institutional challenges such as customs regulations. Finally, Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) such as the African Development Bank are mandated to, and are currently, trying to fill the gaps left by private financial institutions. There is an opportunity to Africa to rethink and reengineer its future. The Africa of tomorrow must look inwards for its solutions. - whether in feeding its own people, build industrial powerhouses led by African champions. The African Development Bank stands ready to help target and push for deeper economic transformation. Africa needs to execute structurally transformative projects that generate positive externalities and social returns. Keep our eyes on the days after. * Professor Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, is the Senior Special Adviser on Industrialization to the President of the African Development Bank. He is a fellow of the Nigerian Academy of Engineering and Professorial Fellow, United Nations University. His recent book is “Resurgent Africa: Structural Transformation and Sustainable Development”, UK: Anthem Press, 2020. Libya - Caught between bullets, bombs and now COVID-19 Continued from Page 7< ICRC’s operational response in Libya to conflict: • ICRC continues to provide food and household items to internally displaced people, residents and returnees. In March, these efforts reached more than 8,200 people. • ICRC's water and sanitation teams have been working with local water authorities to increase access to clean water in dozens of areas affected by the conflict. It is also working to improve sanitation by supporting sewage-processing facilities. • It is also providing medical supplies to hospitals and primary health care facilities across Libya, including insulin and other medicines to diabetes centres. ICRC teams are also delivering trauma medical supplies and body bags to health workers on the frontline. ICRC’s operational response in Libya to COVID-19: • The ICRC is giving cash to health care facilities to help them buy equipment and medical consumables such as masks, soap and disinfectants. Three hospitals will also receive generators, so they can keep working through power cuts. • It has delivered hygiene items to 3,200 detainees living in two places of detention and is working with authorities on measures to be taken to prevent COVID-19, and manage suspected cases inside prisons. • It is working with the Libyan Red Crescent and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to share information about how COVID-19 can be prevented in communities across the country. • Teams are also providing hygiene materials and chlorine to displaced families in 17 collective centres. Staff in the centres are also being trained in how to carry out disinfection to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in shared living spaces • It is also working with authorities to develop a plan for how bodies of those who die from COVID-19 will be managed safely and with dignity. This also includes equipment support such as body bags.
Children APRIL 22 - MAY 5 2020 TheTrumpet Helping children cope with Covid-19 bereavement Page9 As the Conoravirus death toll continues to rise, more and more youngsters are having to cope with the loss of a loved one. Former primary school teacher - Catherine Lynch of education resources and lesson plan experts - PlanBee has step-by-step advice for parents. The daily announcement that yet again hundreds of loved ones have died from Covid-19 continues to shock us – as it should. But for young children, most of whom are stuck at home without the distraction of school and socialising with friends, talk of death can be extremely disturbing and overwhelming. As the number of victims continues to rise – and with age identified as one of the key risk factors – those lost may include grandparents, elderly neighbours, or relatives of their friends. And increasingly, as the virus takes hold, children are mourning parents, uncles and aunts. And for those whose parents and loved ones are key workers in, for example, the NHS, supermarkets or transport, there may be special worries that their relatives are particularly vulnerable. If a relative or friend does succumb to the virus, here is some advice as to how best to discuss it with your child, who may be feeling bewildered as well as extremely sad. The challenge is to be honest and truthful while making your dialogue ageappropriate and reassuring. Don’t shy away from difficult information Talking about illness and bereavement are incredibly challenging conversations to have. It can be tempting to try and shield children from difficult information, but they are likely to overhear conversations and pick up on adults’ emotions. This makes it highly likely they will become frightened and confused about the unknown. Where possible, be honest with children in an ageappropriate way. Tell them if a relative is unwell Talk to them about what is happening and tell them if someone they know is unwell. Answer their questions as best you can. Talk about how you are feeling, if you are able to. Don’t be shocked or worried if your child doesn’t seem to engage with the conversation. Follow their lead, give them time to process the news and be ready to talk to them when they approach you. Use direct language Talk to your child in simple, direct language to explain when someone dies. Avoid comparing dying with falling to sleep. This can make children incredibly anxious about going to sleep themselves. Also avoid euphemisms like ‘we have lost…’. This can be confusing for children. You may want to read a picture book about bereavement together. Stories are excellent for sharing difficult concepts with children in an accessible way. They give people the language to discuss this type of event. You may find a child will request a book about bereavement rather than directly ask to discuss it. Books can seem much less threatening than having a deep and meaningful conversation. Anger is OK as well as sadness Acknowledge all feelings after a bereavement. This includes, but is not limited to, sadness, loss, anger, worry, relief, guilt, happiness, numbness. Feeling any of these emotions is normal; none of them makes someone a bad person. Most people experience a mixture. Adults are suffering, too Expect everyone in your household (this includes adults) to have times where everything feels overwhelming. For children, this may present in more challenging behaviour as they struggle to regulate their emotions. They may also start acting as if they are much younger than they are, seeking lots of cuddles, wanting to be spoon fed at mealtimes, demanding they are given something unrealistically expensive, and being completely devastated when something small doesn’t work out as they hoped. Accept their feelings of anger While it can feel frustrating when your child loses the plot over their brick tower falling down, remember that they are processing a lot of complicated emotions. It is much easier to express anger and upset over something specific and tangible than to explain feelings around something as big and sometimes abstract as the death of a loved one. If they are seeking much more attention than usual it may feel smothering, especially while our support networks are so different from usual. Arrange video calls with friends and family and don’t feel guilty about extra cuddles on the sofa. Try to engage your support network as best you can remotely and be kind to yourself. Remember your loved one Share memories of the person who has died. This is especially important at the moment when only a small number of family members are permitted to attend wakes and funerals. You may want to plan a memorial service for when restrictions have been lifted. This is an opportunity for separated families to work together and may provide a useful thing to focus on. Say your own goodbye Holding your own, personal ritual as a household is a lovely, gentle way to say goodbye. You could all share a memory of the person. Encourage your child to draw pictures or write messages to put in a memory box; think about what is most fitting for you and your family. Possibly most importantly look after yourself. Don’t be hard on yourself. You will probably feel a wide range of emotions and regulating your own emotions while holding your child’s is incredibly difficult. Give yourself time to process the loss. Visit Winston’s Wish or Child Bereavement UK to access more support for children and families. * Catherine Lynch is a former primary school teacher and now a member of the senior team at lesson plan and education resources experts - PlanBee.
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The Trumpet Newspaper Issue 517 (April 22 - May 5 2020)

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