YSM Issue 86.3

DEMOGRAPHY
the start of the Holocene, the pre-industrial
era, 280 parts per million (ppm) of CO 2
existed in the atmosphere. As of 2012, this
number has spiked to 395 ppm of CO 2
. This
massive increase is primarily due to the combustion
of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and
gas, which are used to power automobiles,
electrical plants, and other utilities. Recent
trends in land use have also contributed to
global climate change, as half of the world’s
original forests have been cleared, thereby
eliminating one of the largest carbon sinks
on the planet.
Professor Wyman, however, is most concerned
about an even more fundamental
resource. “The first thing to give out will be
the aquifers,” he states while expressing his
great concern regarding freshwater scarcity.
As rivers become increasingly polluted, and as
more groundwater is drawn up from aquifers
to meet the demands of an expanding population,
water reserves are bound to eventually
“
run dry. Chennai, a city in the south of India,
has already experienced a number of “water
outages” in the summer months, during
which the local government was forced to
bring in water from surrounding Indian states
to provide for their citizens.
Hope for Ecological Recovery
It is clear that our detrimental behaviors
need to be stopped, but the greater question
is: can we reverse the damage already done?
A meta-analysis by Professor Oswald
Schmitz of the Yale School of Forestry &
Environmental Studies looked at the ability
of ecological systems to recover from human
disturbances and suggested some hope. Contrary
to long-standing perceptions, Professor
Schmitz found that ecosystems “can recover
fairly quickly, in terms of half of a full human
generation.”
According to Schmitz, it ultimately boils
down to human will. A prime example is the
2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The
incredible amount of publicity surrounding
this event pushed it to the forefront of the
It is clear that our detrimental behaviors
need to be stopped, but the greater question
is: can we reverse the damage already done?
IMAGE COURTESY OF ROBERT WYMAN
When a decline in birth rate lags behind a decline in death
rate, the population experiences a sudden burst in growth.
The rate of this growth is determined by the gap between the
birth rate and the death rate.
”
public’s attention. The general public ended
up contributing a great deal of funds to the
clean-up. “In 20-30 years, things can recover
pretty quickly,” he stated. “The reason
things don’t recover is
that people abandon
them. If we actively
put our mind to it, we
can fix the damages.”
This finding provides
some hope
for the reversal of
ecological damage
that has already
been inflicted. Further
investigation is
required to ascertain
whether this ecological
principle can be
applied to issues such
as water scarcity and
air pollution, which
may not be as selfcorrecting.
Schmitz
does, however, point
out that for the first
Shenzhen, a city in China’s Guangdong
province, has a population of over 10
million. Air pollution often negatively
impacts visibility, causing buildings in
the distance to appear hazy.
time in history, humans are shifting their
populations from rural areas to cities. In
some countries such as the United States
and China, the urban population exceeds the
rural population. As more people aggregate
into cities, there is a large amount of ongoing
research to determine how to effectively
carry out sustainable city development and
growth. By taking advantage of the clustering
of people in concentrated areas, resource use
may be reduced. The building of sustainable
cities may thus be able to reduce our negative
impacts on the environment moving forward.
Consumption and Population Growth
PHOTO BY SOPHIE JANASKIE
There is more to the story here than sheer
population growth. As the global economy
continues to develop, people are coming to
expect higher standards of living that are
often more resource-intensive. Thus economic,
cultural, and consumption-related
factors must also be considered in order to
properly contextualize these environmental
concerns.
As societies across the world become
increasingly globalized and economies continue
to develop, it is anticipated that everyone’s
ability to consume is going to increase.
One argument is that it is not the number of
people, but rather their level of consumption
24 Yale Scientific Magazine | April 2013
www.yalescientific.org