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News Johnson’s green agenda will melt appeal of ICE cars in a decade Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ambitious plans to ban the sale of all petrol and diesel-engined cars by 2030 has been greeted by the motoring world with a mixture of cautious support, practical concerns and genuine anger. In a surprise announcement on November 17, Johnson – a long-time advocate of environmental reforms – said sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) powered cars would end in fewer than 10 years, creating a narrow window during which car manufacturers and the electric car charging network could adjust their plans. The proposal puts the UK second behind only Norway in terms of electrifying its car parc; the Scandinavian country has previously announced that it would ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2025. The UK Government has set deadlines for sales of ICE cars before: Theresa May’s Government originally proposed ending sales by 2040, and this date was reduced to 2035 shortly afterwards. But bringing an end to sales this decade was described by the AA as “incredibly ambitious”, and industry commentators were queuing up to question the wisdom of making such a bold move. Motoring lobby groups were also concerned that the environmental plans came as news leaked out that Chancellor Rishi Sunak was considering plans to introduce road charging in the UK as he faced a gaping hole in the country’s finances usually filled by fuel duty and motoring taxes. A Government spokesman admitted that “if the UK switches to electric vehicles, the total lost to the Treasury comes in at around £40billion a year, in terms of lost VAT, fuel duty and VED. The Chancellor has to claw that cash back somehow.” Road charging has been proposed before: the Labour Government looked at introducing it in 2007 before dropping the idea amid strong public opposition. Under the Government’s latest plans to reduce the UK’s carbon emissions and comply with its treaty obligations under the Paris Accord of 2015, the focus will be on all cars to be switch to electric power as quickly as possible – though it denied that existing ICE vehicles could be banned from the road in the 2030s; there is, a spokesman for the Prime Minister said, “no plans to curb car use, nor second-hand sales of older vehicles.” However, stopping sales of new ICE vehicles in under 10 years will be a very hard act to pull off, Professor Peter Wells, director of the Centre for Automotive Industry Research at Cardiff University, said. “I’m not sure the UK industry will be ready to deliver enough electric vehicles by that point. “The chief bottleneck so far is on battery supply. That is being solved across Europe but we’re a bit behind the pace here in the UK. “There’s also a concern on the retail side, too. Repairing and maintaining these cars requires new skills and I’m not sure there will be enough people trained up. “It’s a nice vision but I think there has to be concern about whether it can be realisable by the industry.” RAC Foundation director Steve Gooding said setting a date is “the easy part; what happens in the lead up to this cliff edge? How do we create a genuinely affordable mass market in electric cars between now and 2030?” Currently, fewer than one per cent of the UK’s 33 million cars are plug-in all-electric vehicles – though that figure will increase slowly, as pure batteryelectric new cars took a 5.5 per cent share of the new car market in the first ten months of the year. In addition, a number of car manufacturers have announced plans to completely electrify their vehicle ranges by the middle of this decade.”It’s likely that electric car sales will take between 10-15 per cent per annum within the next two years,” commented a spokesman for the SMMT. But even if the public does decide to buy electric, there is growing concern that the UK’s charging network isn’t big enough to supply the increased demand. Jim Holder, editorial director of What Car?, suggested that, among a number of concerns, access to public charging points appeared to be an obstacle that needed clearing. Capacity “needs to be increased by 10 or even 20 times” to cope with the increased demand, he said. To achieve this, he thought the Government would need to do more than offer £1.3billion for increasing the number of charge points. “We will need grants for homeowners, businesses and local authorities to install chargepoints.” However, the opening of Britain’s first forecourt only for electric vehicles could be an example of the future. The station, in Braintree, Essex, is the first of a 18 NEWSLINK n DECEMBER 2020
For all the latest news, see www.msagb.com £1billion nationwide network of 100 electric forecourts planned over the next five years (more on page 20). According to Department for Transport figures, there were 19,487 public charging devices available as of September 30 this year, up seven per cent on the figure from three months earlier. More than 1,200 charging devices for public use were installed in the UK between July and September. However, motorists who cannot park on a drive at home will be concerned over how they can recharge – though new products are coming on stream that suggest alternative charging points could become more readily available in a few years (for news on one of these, see page 36). Businesses are also being encouraged to install more charging points in office car parks, and councils to do the same in its public car parks, which can also be used while people are at work or out shopping. However, those who do not have access to charging points at home, or at work, face paying more to charge. The reaction to the plans from elsewhere within the atuto world was decidedly mixed. The Alliance of British Drivers condemned the plan as flying in the face of the free market, saying the charging infrastructure was not close to being ready. Nigel Humphries of the ABD questioned whether enough electric vehicles will be in production to meet demand by 2030, suggesting the costs will be so high that only the ‘wealthy’ will be able to drive. The Government was, he said, “pursuing the wrong agenda. If you’ve got to the point that you need to ban something then that shows you’ve got no confidence in the alternative. There’s something Stalinist about it.” “Where’s the free market in all of this that the so-called Conservative Party is meant to be protecting? It’s also far, far too early and does not give the motor industry much time to prepare.” He added that “the motor industry has demonstrated that markets are far better at improving environmental outcomes than Government mandates: in response to price signals and customer demand, the engine technologies of today are far less polluting and far more efficient than those of yesteryear. “Where governments have intervened, they have often got it wrong; the diesel scandal being the most notable example,” Humphries added. “It is hard to think of a more inefficient and less liberal approach to reducing carbon emissions. This is yet another regressive, anti-motorist policy.” Nicholas Lyes of the RAC warned that many motorists would be nervous about the switch to electric cars, given their limited driving range, while Honda Europe’s senior vice-president Ian Howells said that the ban would “restrict consumer choice”. “An approach that relies only on expensive electric cars risks turning driving into a privilege only afforded to the wealthy, while pricing those who most need it out of personal mobility,” he said. Mark Littlewood, director of the ‘‘ I’m not sure the UK motor industry will be able to deliver enough electric vehicles by 2030 ... it’s a nice vision but I think there has to be a concern over whether it is realisable... ‘‘ Institute of Economic Affairs think-tank, said the plans “rely on the false assumption that the state is best placed to pick winners when it comes to technology and the future of energy. “The measures announced largely rely on heavy-handed prohibitions – such as the ban on sales of petrol and diesel cars – rather than price incentives,” he said. However, David Krajicek, CEO, JATO Dynamics, pointed out that the automotive industry has been preparing to transition into electrics for some time, and given that “we have seen many governments in Europe legislate against diesel cars in recent times, and that traditional petrol cars emit higher levels of CO 2 on average, this move by Johnson should come as little surprise. “Over the last decade, the focus for all automotive players has been clear: actively work to offset the potential negative economic consequences of banning vehicles with internal combustion engines. In fact, the increasing adoption of alternative fuelled vehicles seen across Europe is showing manufacturers the benefits arising from their electrification strategies. “This is an ambitious timeline and with many manufacturers not yet seeing a a return on their investment, the new policies will require considerable backing from the state.” EVs: Where do ADIs fit in? If all new vehicles are electric, what does that mean for ADIs? For a start, such bold plans will force all instructors to ditch the clutch and gearstick – unless electric vehicles suddenly stop being automatic-only transmission, which is unlikely. If you work for a large francise where new cars are de rigeur, it is likely you’ll lose manual fairly quickly, and while a steady stream of good quality secondhand non-electrics could be in ready supply for 10-15 years post ‘E-Day’, why would pupils willingly sign up to learn to drive one when they know they are unlikely to ever put their gear-changing skills into practice once they pass their test? The expense of new electric cars is also a concern, though it must be stressed that cost savings are expecting to bring the price tag of EVs down sharply in the next five years. Batteries constitute around 35 per cent of the cost of a new electric vehicle at present, but it is anticipated this will fall to less than 25 per cent by 2025. That should bring EVs into a price point similar to their petrol counterparts. And the good news? Maintenance and servicing should be cheaper – and filling up with £6 a gallon petrol to do 35 miles will be a thing of the past. Think more about £8.50 to charge a 60kWh battery capable to a 200-mile range; on a 20,000-mile year, that’s a saving of around £2,500. www.msagb.com 19
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