2011 Arizona State Rail Plan - Arizona Department of Transportation

Arizona State Rail Plan
2050 Passenger Demand Forecasts
Passenger rail forecasts were developed for both intercity
rail service and commuter rail service on the following
segments:
• Intercity rail
– Phoenix–Tucson
– Phoenix–Yuma
– Tucson–Nogales
– Phoenix– Flagstaff–Winslow
– Phoenix–Los Angeles
– Phoenix–San Diego
– Phoenix–Las Vegas
• Commuter rail
– Metropolitan Phoenix
(Maricopa Association of
Governments [MAG] region,
with possible Pinal County
extension)
– Metropolitan Tucson (Pima
Association of Governments
[PAG] region)
– Metropolitan Flagstaff
Based on demand
forecasts, the
Phoenix-Los Angeles
and Phoenix-Tucson
corridors offer the
highest ridership
potential
Intercity Passenger Rail
2050 Intercity Rail Passenger Estimates
One of the key determinants of ridership is the population
served by a rail corridor. For this study, the potential
market was defined by population within 25 miles of
potential rail stations along a corridor. Past experience in
providing ridership and revenue support to Amtrak and
in completing other intercity rail studies has shown this
to be a good measure of market size, and thus a predictor
of rail ridership potential.
Table 3 - Summary of Population Served by Potential Rail Passenger
Corridors in 2050
Route
2008 Population
(in thousands)
2050 Population (in thousands)
Low Baseline High
Phoenix-Tucson 4,661 9,010 10,087 11,186
Phoenix-Yuma 3,658 6,341 7,102 7,879
Tucson-Nogales 874 1,585 1,775 1,969
Phoenix-Flagstaff-
Winslow
3,950 7,160 8,018 8,893
Phoenix-Los Angeles 16,374 22,775 27,621 32,582
Phoenix-San Diego 6,152 9,835 11,407 13,014
Phoenix-Las Vegas 5,598 10,758 12,503 14,299
Source: ADOT Statewide Rail Framework Study, 2010
Comparable Intercity Rail Passenger Corridors
In order to confirm ridership estimates for corridors
without existing forecasts, it is helpful to compare similar
corridors and consider ridership, corridor population,
corridor length, and service frequency associated with
existing rail passenger corridors.
Table 4 provides a summary of the comparable corridors.
The corridors represent a wide range of length, service
frequency, population served, and regions of the country.
14 Arizona State Rail Plan
March 2011