2011 Arizona State Rail Plan - Arizona Department of Transportation

Arizona State Rail Plan
Based on the analysis, the Phoenix–Los Angeles corridor
offers the highest potential ridership, as it serves the
largest population of all the corridors. While the Phoenix–
San Diego estimates may appear low, they represent the
additional incremental ridership over the Phoenix–Yuma
corridor, which is part of the Phoenix-San Diego route.
Taking both estimates into account brings the Phoenix–
Yuma-San Diego potential annual ridership to between
750,000 and 1.4 million.
The ridership estimates in Table 5 represent the impact
of the corridors individually. If service were implemented
in more than one of these corridors, with connections
between them, there would be potential for higher
system-wide ridership.
Commuter Rail
Three potential commuter rail corridors were identified:
Metro Phoenix, Metro Tucson, and Metro Flagstaff.
Ridership forecasts are available for all these services
except Flagstaff. This section provides a high-level
overview of the service characteristics assumed, where
available, for each system. Outside Phoenix few detailed
studies have been conducted.
• Metropolitan Phoenix Commuter Rail
– Source: 2010 MAG Commuter Rail System
Study
– Corridors: Four potential corridors: BNSF
Grand Avenue Line, UPRR Tempe/West
Chandler Branch, UPRR Southeast Mainline
and UPRR Yuma West Line
– 2030 Service Assumptions: 30-minute peak
headway, 60-minute off-peak headway
• Metropolitan Tucson Commuter Rail
– Source: 2007 Arizona Public Transportation
Program Response to Executive Order
#2007-02 (#2008-02)
– Corridors: None specified
– 2030 Service Assumptions: 15+ one-way
trips per day
• Metropolitan Flagstaff Commuter Rail
– Source: ADOT Statewide Rail Framework
Study, 2010
– Corridors: Williams–Flagstaff-Winslow
– 2030 Service Assumptions: 10-15 one-way
trips per day
Comparable Commuter Rail Corridors
As in the intercity corridor analysis described above, a
high-level analysis approach was developed to provide
order-of-magnitude estimate of commuter rail ridership
in the three corridors. The approach provides estimates
for Flagstaff and Tucson. The method considers the
relationship between daily ridership and central business
district employment. Since the analysis was applied to
cities with relatively low employment compared to other
cities with commuter rail service, only cities with a central
business district employment of less than 100,000 were
initially considered, as Table 6 shows.
Table 6 - Summary Selected Commuter Rail Corridors
City Daily Ridership
Central
Business District
Employment
Flagstaff N/A 6,300
Tucson N/A 9,700
Phoenix N/A 26,800
Albuquerque 2,500 40,000
Salt Lake City 5,800 42,900
San Diego 27,604 61,800
Dallas/Fort Worth 10,500 79,900
Miami/Fort
Lauderdale
14,800 98,000
Sources: APTA Commuter Rail Public Transportation Ridership Report
(March 2009), Demographia U.S. Central Business Districts, 2000
Data on Employment and Transit Work Trips (June 2006), Flagstaff
central business district employment estimated from 2000 Census
Transportation Planning Package.
Phoenix, Tucson, and Flagstaff’s central business district
employment are lower than in any of the comparison
cities, so the two smallest cities, Albuquerque and Salt
16 Arizona State Rail Plan
March 2011