Energy Crossroads: Exploring North Carolina’s Two Energy Futures
North Carolina’s Clean Energy Plan, a proposal put together by the Department of Environmental Quality at the behest of Governor Roy Cooper, calls for a 70-percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from electricity by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050. Duke Energy has submitted Integrated Resource Plans that include pathways to the Clean Energy Plan targets. Duke Energy’s Portfolio D most resembles the Clean Energy Plan, deploying wind, solar, and battery storage on an unprecedented scale. This report assesses North Carolina’s existing electricity portfolio, analyzes the changes proposed by Duke Energy’s Portfolio D, and compares that scenario to alternatives that utilize nuclear energy and natural gas to achieve emissions reduction rather than the Clean Energy Plan’s preferred wind, solar, and battery storage.
North Carolina’s Clean Energy Plan, a proposal put together by the Department of Environmental Quality at the behest of Governor Roy Cooper, calls for a 70-percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from electricity by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050. Duke Energy has submitted Integrated Resource Plans that include pathways to the Clean Energy Plan targets. Duke Energy’s Portfolio D most resembles the Clean Energy Plan, deploying wind, solar, and battery storage on an unprecedented scale.
This report assesses North Carolina’s existing electricity portfolio, analyzes the changes proposed by Duke Energy’s Portfolio D, and compares that scenario to alternatives that utilize nuclear energy and natural gas to achieve emissions reduction rather than the Clean Energy Plan’s preferred wind, solar, and battery storage.
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Natural Gas Scenario
In both natural gas scenarios, renewable energy additions listed in Duke
Energy’s Portfolio D were excluded and only 6,400 MW of natural gas
additions were included. All 6,400 MW of capacity additions were combined-cycle.
The same capacity retirements were made in both scenarios
as was made in Scenario D for North Carolina and Duke Energy,
equating to a net capacity increase of 4,249.7 MW in the North Carolina
scenario and 5,129.5 MW in the Duke Energy scenario.
EIA Nuclear Scenario
In both EIA reference case nuclear scenarios, 5,000 MW of new nuclear
capacity are modeled in the place of renewable energy additions listed
in Portfolio D. These additions come in the form of three 1,000 MW facilities
and one 2,000 MW facility beginning in 2025. In addition, 1,500
MW of combined-cycle natural gas additions are included in this scenario.
The amount of nuclear capacity was determined by reaching similar
carbon-free percentages as Portfolio D. The same capacity retirements
were made in both scenarios as was made in Portfolio D for North Carolina
and Duke Energy, equating to a net capacity increase of 4,149.7
MW in the North Carolina scenario and 5,029.5 MW in the Duke Energy
scenario.
APR1400 Scenario
In both APR1400 scenarios, 5,600 MW of APR1400 nuclear capacity are
modeled in the place of renewable energy additions listed in Portfolio D.
These additions come in the form of four 1,400 MW facilities beginning
in 2025. In addition, one 900 MW combined-cycle facility is included. The
amount of nuclear capacity was based on reaching a similar carbon-free
percentage as Scenario D. The same capacity retirements were made in
both scenarios as was made in Scenario D for North Carolina and Duke
Energy, equating to a net capacity increase of 4,149.7 MW in the North
Carolina scenario and 5,029.5 MW in the Duke Energy scenario.
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