Energy Crossroads: Exploring North Carolina’s Two Energy Futures

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56 ENERGY CROSSROADSPortfolio D Scenario Emissions by Year50METRIC TONS (MILLIONS)40302010020202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048204920502051SOURCE: CENTER OF THE AMERICAN EXPERIMENTPortfolio D ConclusionPortfolio D, which most reflects Governor Cooper and DEQ’s Clean EnergyPlan, would be a terrible bargain for the state of North Carolina. Theplan would reduce carbon dioxide emissions as intended, but it wouldcome at an unreasonable cost, as demonstrated by the Center’s modeling.Natural Gas ScenarioThe first alternative scenario is one in which new natural gas capacity isadded instead of wind, solar, and battery storage as in the Portfolio DScenario.
JOHN LOCKE FOUNDATION57In the Natural Gas Scenario modeling, 6,400 MW of natural gas is addedto the capacity mix instead of the renewable energy additions listed inDuke Energy’s IRPs. All 6,400 MW of capacity additions are combinedcycle. In the Natural Gas Scenario, the same capacity retirements aremade as in the IRPs. This results in a net capacity increase of about 4,250MW for the state.This scenario presents extraordinary savings for North Carolina relative tothe Portfolio D Scenario. Whereas the Portfolio D Scenario would driveup operating costs to more than $1.5 billion above baseline annually, theNatural Gas Scenario reduces annual operating expenses to $500 millionbelow baseline from the early-2030s to the end of the model period andreduces costs overall, even when incorporating property tax expenses,transmission and upgrade expenses, and Duke Energy returns.Costs to CustomersAs a result, ratepayers will see smaller increases in their bills in the NaturalGas Scenario than in the Portfolio D Scenario.In the Natural Gas Scenario, residential customers will see their rates increaseby a fraction of a cent through the first decade, peaking at about0.15 cents per kWh above baseline in 2032. Rates will then fall on a similarlyminute scale, decreasing back to parity with baseline rates by theearly-2040s, and continuing to fall until residential rates are about 0.15cents per kWh below baseline in 2051.Commercial customers will see their rate follow the same trajectory,peaking at about 0.12 cents per kWh above baseline in 2032, then fallingto about 0.12 below baseline in 2051.The experience will be much the same for industrial customers. Rateswill rise to just shy of 0.1 cents per kWh above baseline, then fall steadilyto almost 0.1 cents per kWh below baseline in 2051.Averaged over the entire model period to 2051, in the Natural Gas Scenarioresidential customers will see annual costs of just $1.38 above
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Jordan McGillisENERGY CROSSROADSEXP
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© 2021 John Locke Foundation4800 S
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The Nuclear Opportunity............
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2 ENERGY CROSSROADSThe report finds
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106 ENERGY CROSSROADSout by the Pri
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110 ENERGY CROSSROADSNorth Carolina
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124 ENERGY CROSSROADSnearly 50 perc
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130 ENERGY CROSSROADSMAYA REAGANNor
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132 ENERGY CROSSROADSThe IRPs indic
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138 ENERGY CROSSROADSThe Clean Ener
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142 ENERGY CROSSROADSFinancial Life
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144 ENERGY CROSSROADSCombustion-Tur
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146 ENERGY CROSSROADSEndnotes1 U.S.
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148 ENERGY CROSSROADS22 Kamen Nikol
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150 ENERGY CROSSROADS45 World Nucle
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152 ENERGY CROSSROADS39, February 2
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154 ENERGY CROSSROADSour uranium co
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156 ENERGY CROSSROADS109 Jeff St. J
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158 ENERGY CROSSROADS132 U.S. Energ
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About the AuthorJordan McGillis is
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4800 Six Forks Rd., #220Raleigh, NC
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Energy Crossroads: Exploring North Carolina’s Two Energy Futures

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