Learning Statistics with R - A tutorial for psychology students and other beginners, 2018a

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100 m. 0 2 4 Snow’s cholera map of London Oxford St #2 Oxford St #1 Gt Marlborough Crown Chapel Broad St So Soho Dean St Warwick Briddle St Vigo St Coventry St Figure 6.1: A stylised redrawing of John Snow’s original cholera map. Each small dot represents the location of a cholera case, and each large circle shows the location of a well. As the plot makes clear, the cholera outbreak is centred very closely on the Broad St pump. This image uses the data from the HistData package (Friendly, 2011), and was drawn using minor alterations to the commands provided in the help files. Note that Snow’s original hand drawn map used different symbols and labels, but you get the idea. ....................................................................................................... graph and how to draw them, as well as showing the basics of how to customise these plots. I’ll then talk in more detail about R graphics, discussing some of those complicated and boring issues. In a future version of this book, I intend to finish this chapter off by talking about what makes a good or a bad graph, but I haven’t yet had the time to write that section. 6.1 An overview of R graphics Reduced to its simplest form, you can think of an R graphic as being much like a painting. You start out with an empty canvas. Every time you use a graphics function, it paints some new things onto your canvas. Later on, you can paint more things over the top if you want; but just like painting, you can’t “undo” your strokes. If you make a mistake, you have to throw away your painting and start over. Fortunately, this is way more easy to do when using R than it is when painting a picture in real life: you - 158 -
delete the plot and then type a new set of commands. 3 This way of thinking about drawing graphs is referred to as the painter’s model. So far, this probably doesn’t sound particularly complicated, and for the vast majority of graphs you’ll want to draw it’s exactly as simple as it sounds. Much like painting in real life, the headaches usually start when we dig into details. To see why, I’ll expand this “painting metaphor” a bit further just to show you the basics of what’s going on under the hood, but before I do I want to stress that you really don’t need to understand all these complexities in order to draw graphs. I’d been using R for years before I even realised that most of these issues existed! However, I don’t want you to go through the same pain I went through every time I inadvertently discovered one of these things, so here’s a quick overview. Firstly, if you want to paint a picture, you need to paint it on something. In real life, you can paint on lots of different things. Painting onto canvas isn’t the same as painting onto paper, and neither one is the same as painting on a wall. In R, the thing that you paint your graphic onto is called a device. For most applications that we’ll look at in this book, this “device” will be a window on your computer. If you’re using Windows as your operating system, then the name for this device is windows; onaMac it’s called quartz because that’s the name of the software that the Mac OS uses to draw pretty pictures; and on Linux/Unix, you’re probably using X11. On the other hand, if you’re using Rstudio (regardless of which operating system you’re on), there’s a separate device called RStudioGD that forces R to paint inside the “plots” panel in Rstudio. However, from the computers perspective there’s nothing terribly special about drawing pictures on screen: and so R is quite happy to paint pictures directly into a file. R can paint several different types of image files: jpeg, png, pdf, postscript, tiff and bmp files are all among the options that you have available to you. For the most part, these different devices all behave the same way, so you don’t really need to know much about the differences between them when learning how to draw pictures. But, just like real life painting, sometimes the specifics do matter. Unless stated otherwise, you can assume that I’m drawing a picture on screen, using the appropriate device (i.e., windows, quartz, X11 or RStudioGD). One the rare occasions where these behave differently from one another, I’ll try to point it out in the text. Secondly, when you paint a picture you need to paint it with something. Maybe you want to do an oil painting, but maybe you want to use watercolour. And, generally speaking, you pretty much have to pick one or the other. The analog to this in R is a “graphics system”. A graphics system defines a collection of very low-level graphics commands about what to draw and where to draw it. Something that surprises most new R users is the discovery that R actually has two completely independent graphics systems, known as traditional graphics (in the graphics package) and grid graphics (in the grid package). 4 Not surprisingly, the traditional graphics system is the older of the two: in fact, it’s actually older than R since it has it’s origins in S, the system from which R is descended. Grid graphics are newer, and in some respects more powerful, so may of the more recent, fancier graphical tools in R make use of grid graphics. However, grid graphics are somewhat more complicated beasts, so most people start out by learning the traditional graphics system. Nevertheless, as long as you don’t want to use any low-level commands yourself, then you don’t really need to care about whether you’re using traditional graphics or grid graphics. However, the moment you do want to tweak your figure by using some low-level commands you do need to care. Because these two different systems are pretty much incompatible with each other, there’s a pretty big divide in R graphics universe. Unless stated otherwise, you can assume that everything I’m saying pertains to traditional graphics. Thirdly, a painting is usually done in a particular style. Maybe it’s a still life, maybe it’s an impressionist piece, or maybe you’re trying to annoy me by pretending that cubism is a legitimate artistic style. Regardless, each artistic style imposes some overarching aesthetic and perhaps even constraints on what 3 Or, since you can always use the up and down keys to scroll through your recent command history, you can just pull up your most recent commands and edit them to fix your mistake. It becomes even easier once you start using scripts (Section 8.1), since all you have to do is edit your script and then run it again. 4 Of course, even that is a slightly misleading description, since some R graphics tools make use of external graphical rendering systems like OpenGL (e.g., the rgl package). I absolutely will not be talking about OpenGL or the like in this book, but as it happens there is one graph in this book that relies on them: Figure 15.4. - 159 -
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Learning statistics with R: A tutor
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This book is published under a Crea
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Preface Table of Contents I Backgro
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8.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . .
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VI Endings, alternatives and prospe
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February 16, 2015 Preface to Versio
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and density is discussed. A detaile
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1. Why do we learn statistics? “T
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And finally, an invalid argument wi
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Admission rate (both genders) 0 20
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experiment, and they don’t get an
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2. A brief introduction to research
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different ways: the length of time
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that when I ask 100 people how they
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Table 2.1: The relationship between
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2.3 Assessing the reliability of a
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2.5.1 Experimental research The key
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things “inside” the study. Let
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they lack face validity, you’ll f
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that age is growing at an incredibl
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then it can be a big problem. 2.7.7
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2.7.10 Placebo effects The placebo
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it doesn’t, which one do you thin
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Part II. An introduction to R - 35
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go out into the real world. It’s
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download Rstudio. To understand why
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Most of this text is pretty uninter
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citation() To cite R in publication
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Table 3.1: Basic arithmetic operati
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Division / and Multiplication *, th
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sales * royalty [1] 2450 As far as
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x to the power of 0.5”. Personall
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As you can see, specifying the argu
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Figure 3.3: If you’ve typed the n
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sales.by.month sales.by.month [1]
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profit / days.per.month [1] 0.00000
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not true of R. R is not infinitely
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Table 3.3: Some more logical operat
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In other words, any.sales.this.mont
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and gotten exactly the same result.
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Figure 3.6: The options window in R
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print( keeper ) [1] 8.539539 So, fr
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to import an SPSS data file into R,
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The output here is telling you that
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Figure 4.3: The Rstudio dialog box
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Figure 4.5: The Rstudio “Environm
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this should be obvious already. But
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Figure 4.6: The “file panel” is
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from this file into my workspace. T
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2 February 28 100 high 3 March 31 2
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Figure 4.9: The Rstudio window for
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4.6.1 Special values The first thin
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x y x * y Error in x * y : non-nu
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4.7.1 Introducing factors Suppose,
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factors in 7.11.2, but for now you
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An alternative method is to use the
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4.11 Generic functions There’s on
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load (base) R Documentation The R D
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Page 127 and 128: 5. Descriptive statistics Any time
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Page 131 and 132: mean( afl.margins[1:5] ) [1] 36.6 A
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Page 135 and 136: Next, let’s calculate means and m
Page 137 and 138: 5.2 Measures of variability The sta
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Page 143 and 144: Mean − SD Mean Mean + SD Figure 5
Page 145 and 146: Negative Skew No Skew Positive Skew
Page 147 and 148: Platykurtic ("too flat") Mesokurtic
Page 149 and 150: e useful, let’s try this for a ne
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Page 155 and 156: Frequency 0 5 10 15 20 Frequency 0
Page 157 and 158: My grumpiness 40 50 60 70 80 90 4 6
Page 159 and 160: following extract illustrates the b
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Page 163 and 164: Okay, so let’s have a look at our
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Page 167 and 168: 5 6.68 9.75 NA 5 6 5.99 5.04 72 6 B
Page 169 and 170: • Measures of variability. In con
Page 171: 6. Drawing graphs Above all else sh
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Page 177 and 178: high-level functions all rely on th
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Page 183 and 184: Figure 6.8: Altering the scale and
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Page 187 and 188: 6.3.1 Visual style of your histogra
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Page 195 and 196: 6.5.3 Drawing multiple boxplots One
Page 197 and 198: Winning Margin 0 50 100 150 1987 19
Page 199 and 200: The second way do to it is to use a
Page 201 and 202: cor( x = parenthood ) # calculate c
Page 203 and 204: 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 Adelaide Fitz
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Page 207 and 208: This takes the “active” figure
Page 209 and 210: 7. Pragmatic matters The garden of
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Page 213 and 214: speaker ee onk oo pip makka-pakka 0
Page 215 and 216: 2 7 3 3 1 3 3 -1 1 -1 BLAH BLAH BLA
Page 217 and 218: seen it before. In any case, those
Page 219 and 220: Table 7.2: Two more arithmetic oper
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But suppose, on the other hand, tha
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is select several different variabl
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column number. So, if we want to pi
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case.2 upsy-daisy pip 2 case.4 makk
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Note that R will only allow you to
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7.6.2 Sorting a factor You can also
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Two other methods that I want to br
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At this point you should have two q
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(alcohol, caffeine or no drug). Bec
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3 3 female 4.6 643 7.4 226 7.3 412
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discuss melt() and cast() in a fair
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paste( hw, ng, sep = ".", collapse
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Table 7.3: The ordering of various
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Table 7.4: Standard escape characte
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sub( pattern = "a", replacement = "
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Figure 7.1: The booksales2.csv data
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note that if you don’t have the R
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etween the two. However, there are
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a third variable to the cross-tabs
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today print(today) # display the d
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encode numbers in binary, 29 0.1 is
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environment. And so when you type i
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8. Basic programming Machine dreams
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for ages, you figure out some reall
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Figure 8.2: A screenshot showing th
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8.1.5 Differences between scripts a
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to the second value in vector; and
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crunching, we tell R (on line 21) t
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What this does is create a function
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hundreds of other things besides. H
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Part IV. Statistical theory - 269 -
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me: I guess I don’t see that. Sur
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discussion of probability theory is
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In this case 11 of these 20 coin fl
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frequentists do this sometimes. And
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Probability of event 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.
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proceed to roll all 20 dice, what
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(a) Probability 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
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In other words, there is a 76.9% ch
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Probability Density 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
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Shaded Area = 68.3% Shaded Area = 9
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Probability Density 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
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• The χ 2 distribution is anothe
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work rather than rchisq() - the obs
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10.1.1 Defining a population A samp
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Figure 10.2: Biased sampling withou
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a stratified sampling technique you
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10.2 The law of large numbers In th
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Table 10.1: Ten replications of the
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Sample Size = 1 Sample Size = 2 Sam
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Sample Size = 1 Sample Size = 2 0.0
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efer to them. For instance, if true
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Average Sample Mean 96 98 100 102 1
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10.5 Estimating a confidence interv
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sense idea of what it means to say
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Average Attendance 0 10000 30000 19
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Here’s how to plot the means and
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Let’s suppose that this glorious
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Dan’s research hypothesis: “ESP
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the type I error rate. As Blackston
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Critical Regions for a Two−Sided
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Critical Region for a One−Sided T
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one based on Neyman’s approach to
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alternative hypothesis is a near ce
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Sampling Distribution for X if θ=.
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Table 11.2: A crude guide to unders
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ureaucratic process. It’s not par
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(binomial test was non significant)
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12. Categorical data analysis Now t
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observations that fall within the i
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it is when it predicts too many (wh
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df = 3 df = 4 df = 5 0 2 4 6 8 10 V
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That’s why I told R to use the up
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clubs 35 40 0.2 diamonds 51 60 0.3
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only one of many (albeit one of the
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That’s more or less what we’re
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Well, since these probabilities hav
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Chapek 9 has an unfortunate tendenc
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12.5 Assumptions of the test(s) All
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To get the test of independence, al
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This is a bit more output than we g
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subj.1 : 1 no :70 no :90 subj.10 :
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13. Comparing two means In the prev
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40 50 60 70 80 90 Grades Figure 13.
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Two Sided Test One Sided Test −1.
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lower.area print( lower.area ) [1]
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df = 2 df = 10 −4 −2 0 2 4 valu
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than I’ve done here. For instance
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Anastasia’s students Bernadette
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null hypothesis μ alternative hypo
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ut once again I’m going to start
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for the difference “(mean 1) minu
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null hypothesis μ alternative hypo
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13.5.1 The data The data set that w
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ciMean( x = chico$improvement ) 2.5
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Paired samples t-test Variables: gr
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Grouping variable: ID variable: tim
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In a one-sided confidence interval,
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are different tests. Secondly, I wa
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Table 13.1: A (very) rough guide to
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ut you no longer believe that the c
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Frequency 0 5 10 15 20 Normally Dis
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Sampling distribution of W (for nor
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We then count up the number of chec
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• A paired samples t-test is used
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14. Comparing several means (one-wa
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Mood Gain 0.5 1.0 1.5 placebo anxif
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This formula looks pretty much iden
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is true, then you’d expect all th
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mean square, MS w , can be viewed a
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3 placebo 0.1 0.45 -0.350 0.1225 4
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is choose an α level (i.e., accept
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names( my.anova ) [1] "coefficients
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etaSquared( x = my.anova ) eta.sq e
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One thing that bugs me slightly abo
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If we compare these three p-values
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• Homogeneity of variance. Notice
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Secondly, I did mention that it’s
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Frequency 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sample Qu
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Looking at this table, notice that
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• Post hoc analysis and correctio
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15. Linear regression The goal in t
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The Best Fitting Regression Line No
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• data. The data frame containing
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Figure 15.4: A 3D visualisation of
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Wonderful. A big number that doesn
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If our regression model has K predi
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You can see why this is handy, sinc
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what it is. The test for the signif
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Fortunately, confidence intervals f
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• Uncorrelated predictors. The id
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Outlier Outcome Predictor Figure 15
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Outcome High influence Predictor Fi
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Cook’s distance 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.
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Standardized residuals −2 −1 0
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78 Residuals vs Fitted Residuals
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In a lot of cases, the solution to
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Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01
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15.10.1 Backward elimination Okay,
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+ day 1 1.55760 1837.2 297.08 + bab
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etween those two SS values as a sum
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16. Factorial ANOVA Over the course
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At this point we have 12 different
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drug 2 3.45 1.727 18.6 8.6e-05 ***
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means can be organised into the sam
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attributable to the “ANOVA model
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Only Factor A has an effect Only Fa
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The effect of CBT (difference betwe
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Now, if you go back to the formulas
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Here’s what I mean. Again, let’
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Speaking of interaction effects, he
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16.4 Assumption checking As with on
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16.5.1 The F test comparing two mod
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the degrees of freedom here is 15.
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tfm.2 grade attend reading 1 90 yes
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line, we obtain the following: Ŷ 7
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Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|
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that contains the same data as clin
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What about the case when there does
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R comes with a variety of functions
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enlightening read. There are a lot
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16.8 Post hoc tests Time to switch
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diff lwr upr p adj anxifree:no.ther
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1 yes none 3.700 2 no none 5.550 3
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Analysis of Variance Table Response
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III tests (which are simple) before
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sugar 2.13 2 4.0446 0.045426 * milk
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even simpler. The main effect of su
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However, when we do the same thing
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Part VI. Endings, alternatives and
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first I want to work through a simp
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This is a very useful table, so it
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P pd|hqP phq P ph|dq “ P pdq And
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Bayesian approach relative to the o
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hardly unusual: in my experience, m
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Cumulative Probability of Type I Er
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are wrong. Worse yet, because we do
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library( BayesFactor ) # ...because
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make sense to people who already un
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-------------- [1] Non-indep. (a=1)
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Before moving on, it’s worth high
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17.6.2 The Bayesian version Okay, s
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[2] day : 0.2724027 ˘0% [3] baby.s
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therapy 0.4672 1 8.5816 0.01262 * d
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command that I use when I want to g
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- 586 -
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• Other types of correlations. In
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measurements mean that independence
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the list that I’ve given above is
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So if you were forced to guess my w
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to be able to do more than ANOVA, m
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Fisher, R. A. (1922a). On the inter
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