Learning Statistics with R - A tutorial for psychology students and other beginners, 2018a

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at an annual interest rate of 5%. The mortgage is a 30 year loan, so they need to pay it off within 360 months total. Our happy couple decide to set their monthly mortgage payment at $1600 per month. Will they pay off the loan in time or not? Only time will tell. 3 Or, alternatively, we could simulate the whole process and get R to tell us. The script to run this is a fair bit more complicated. mortgage.R 1 # set up 2 month
crunching, we tell R (on line 21) to issue the couple with a very terse monthly statement, which just indicates how many months they’ve been paying the loan and how much money they still owe the bank. Which is rather rude of us really. I’ve grown attached to this couple and I really feel they deserve better than that. But, that’s banks for you. In any case, the key thing here is the tension between the increase in balance online16andthedecrease on line 17. As long as the decrease is bigger, then the balance will eventually drop to zero and the loop will eventually terminate. If not, the loop will continue forever! This is actually very bad programming on my part: I really should have included something to force R to stop if this goes on too long. However, I haven’t shown you how to evaluate “if” statements yet, so we’ll just have to hope that the author of the book has rigged the example so that the code actually runs. Hm. I wonder what the odds of that are? Anyway, assuming that the loop does eventually terminate, there’s one last line of code (line 26) that prints out the total amount of money that the couple handed over to the bank over the lifetime of the loan. Now that I’ve explained everything in the script in tedious detail, let’s run it and see what happens: > source( "mortgage.R" ) month 1 : balance 299622 month 2 : balance 299243 month 3 : balance 298862 month 4 : balance 298480 month 5 : balance 298096 BLAH BLAH BLAH month 352 : balance 4806 month 353 : balance 3226 month 354 : balance 1639 month 355 : balance 46 month 356 : balance -1554 total payments made 569600 So our nice young couple have paid off their $300,000 loan in just 4 months shy of the 30 year term of their loan, at a bargain basement price of $568,046 (since 569600 - 1554 = 568046). A happy ending! 8.3 Conditional statements A second kind of flow control that programming languages provide is the ability to evaluate conditional statements. Unlike loops, which can repeat over and over again, a conditional statement only executes once, but it can switch between different possible commands depending on a condition that is specified by the programmer. The power of these commands is that they allow the program itself to make choices, and in particular, to make different choices depending on the context in which the program is run. The most prominent of example of a conditional statement is the if statement, and the accompanying else statement. The basic format of an if statement in R is as follows: if ( CONDITION ) { STATEMENT1 STATEMENT2 ETC } And the execution of the statement is pretty straightforward. If the condition is true, then R will execute the statements contained in the curly braces. If the condition is false, then it dose not. If you want to, you can extend the if statement to include an else statement as well, leading to the following syntax: - 263 -
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Learning statistics with R: A tutor
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This book is published under a Crea
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Preface Table of Contents I Backgro
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8.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . .
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VI Endings, alternatives and prospe
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February 16, 2015 Preface to Versio
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and density is discussed. A detaile
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1. Why do we learn statistics? “T
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And finally, an invalid argument wi
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Admission rate (both genders) 0 20
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experiment, and they don’t get an
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2. A brief introduction to research
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different ways: the length of time
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that when I ask 100 people how they
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Table 2.1: The relationship between
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2.3 Assessing the reliability of a
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2.5.1 Experimental research The key
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things “inside” the study. Let
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they lack face validity, you’ll f
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that age is growing at an incredibl
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then it can be a big problem. 2.7.7
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2.7.10 Placebo effects The placebo
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it doesn’t, which one do you thin
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Part II. An introduction to R - 35
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go out into the real world. It’s
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download Rstudio. To understand why
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Most of this text is pretty uninter
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citation() To cite R in publication
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Table 3.1: Basic arithmetic operati
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Division / and Multiplication *, th
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sales * royalty [1] 2450 As far as
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x to the power of 0.5”. Personall
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As you can see, specifying the argu
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Figure 3.3: If you’ve typed the n
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sales.by.month sales.by.month [1]
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profit / days.per.month [1] 0.00000
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not true of R. R is not infinitely
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Table 3.3: Some more logical operat
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In other words, any.sales.this.mont
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and gotten exactly the same result.
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Figure 3.6: The options window in R
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- 72 -
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print( keeper ) [1] 8.539539 So, fr
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to import an SPSS data file into R,
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The output here is telling you that
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Figure 4.3: The Rstudio dialog box
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Figure 4.5: The Rstudio “Environm
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this should be obvious already. But
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Figure 4.6: The “file panel” is
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from this file into my workspace. T
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2 February 28 100 high 3 March 31 2
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Figure 4.9: The Rstudio window for
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4.6.1 Special values The first thin
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x y x * y Error in x * y : non-nu
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4.7.1 Introducing factors Suppose,
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factors in 7.11.2, but for now you
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An alternative method is to use the
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4.11 Generic functions There’s on
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load (base) R Documentation The R D
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Warning Saved R objects are binary
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- 110 -
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5. Descriptive statistics Any time
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mean of these observations is just:
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mean( afl.margins[1:5] ) [1] 36.6 A
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the median rises only to $62,500. I
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Next, let’s calculate means and m
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5.2 Measures of variability The sta
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English: which game value deviation
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and you get the same... no, wait...
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Mean − SD Mean Mean + SD Figure 5
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Negative Skew No Skew Positive Skew
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Platykurtic ("too flat") Mesokurtic
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e useful, let’s try this for a ne
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argument specifies the grouping var
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grumpiness score. 13 If the mean is
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Frequency 0 5 10 15 20 Frequency 0
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My grumpiness 40 50 60 70 80 90 4 6
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following extract illustrates the b
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Y1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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Okay, so let’s have a look at our
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pay 0.760 0.720 . 0.137 . 0.196 . d
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5 6.68 9.75 NA 5 6 5.99 5.04 72 6 B
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• Measures of variability. In con
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6. Drawing graphs Above all else sh
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delete the plot and then type a new
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Fibonacci 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
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high-level functions all rely on th
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type = ’p’ type = ’o’ type
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Fibonacci 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
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Figure 6.8: Altering the scale and
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y the height of the leftmost bar in
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6.3.1 Visual style of your histogra
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (a) (b) Figur
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Winning Margi
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Winning Ma
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6.5.3 Drawing multiple boxplots One
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Winning Margin 0 50 100 150 1987 19
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The second way do to it is to use a
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cor( x = parenthood ) # calculate c
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0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 Adelaide Fitz
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value for mar is c(5.1, 4.1, 4.1, 2
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This takes the “active” figure
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7. Pragmatic matters The garden of
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in the command above I didn’t nam
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speaker ee onk oo pip makka-pakka 0
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2 7 3 3 1 3 3 -1 1 -1 BLAH BLAH BLA
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seen it before. In any case, those
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Table 7.2: Two more arithmetic oper
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fact R does provide a function for
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But suppose, on the other hand, tha
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Page 231 and 232: Note that R will only allow you to
Page 233 and 234: 7.6.2 Sorting a factor You can also
Page 235 and 236: Two other methods that I want to br
Page 237 and 238: At this point you should have two q
Page 239 and 240: (alcohol, caffeine or no drug). Bec
Page 241 and 242: 3 3 female 4.6 643 7.4 226 7.3 412
Page 243 and 244: discuss melt() and cast() in a fair
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Page 247 and 248: Table 7.3: The ordering of various
Page 249 and 250: Table 7.4: Standard escape characte
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Page 253 and 254: Figure 7.1: The booksales2.csv data
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Page 257 and 258: etween the two. However, there are
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Page 265 and 266: environment. And so when you type i
Page 267 and 268: 8. Basic programming Machine dreams
Page 269 and 270: for ages, you figure out some reall
Page 271 and 272: Figure 8.2: A screenshot showing th
Page 273 and 274: 8.1.5 Differences between scripts a
Page 275: to the second value in vector; and
Page 279 and 280: What this does is create a function
Page 281 and 282: hundreds of other things besides. H
Page 283: Part IV. Statistical theory - 269 -
Page 286 and 287: me: I guess I don’t see that. Sur
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Page 290 and 291: discussion of probability theory is
Page 292 and 293: In this case 11 of these 20 coin fl
Page 294 and 295: frequentists do this sometimes. And
Page 296 and 297: Probability of event 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.
Page 298 and 299: proceed to roll all 20 dice, what
Page 300 and 301: (a) Probability 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
Page 302 and 303: In other words, there is a 76.9% ch
Page 304 and 305: Probability Density 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Page 306 and 307: Shaded Area = 68.3% Shaded Area = 9
Page 308 and 309: Probability Density 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Page 310 and 311: • The χ 2 distribution is anothe
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Page 316 and 317: 10.1.1 Defining a population A samp
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Page 322 and 323: 10.2 The law of large numbers In th
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Sample Size = 1 Sample Size = 2 Sam
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Sample Size = 1 Sample Size = 2 0.0
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efer to them. For instance, if true
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Average Sample Mean 96 98 100 102 1
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10.5 Estimating a confidence interv
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sense idea of what it means to say
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Average Attendance 0 10000 30000 19
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Here’s how to plot the means and
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Let’s suppose that this glorious
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Dan’s research hypothesis: “ESP
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the type I error rate. As Blackston
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Critical Regions for a Two−Sided
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Critical Region for a One−Sided T
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one based on Neyman’s approach to
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alternative hypothesis is a near ce
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Sampling Distribution for X if θ=.
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Table 11.2: A crude guide to unders
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ureaucratic process. It’s not par
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(binomial test was non significant)
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12. Categorical data analysis Now t
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observations that fall within the i
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it is when it predicts too many (wh
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df = 3 df = 4 df = 5 0 2 4 6 8 10 V
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That’s why I told R to use the up
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clubs 35 40 0.2 diamonds 51 60 0.3
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only one of many (albeit one of the
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That’s more or less what we’re
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Well, since these probabilities hav
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Chapek 9 has an unfortunate tendenc
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12.5 Assumptions of the test(s) All
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To get the test of independence, al
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This is a bit more output than we g
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subj.1 : 1 no :70 no :90 subj.10 :
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13. Comparing two means In the prev
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40 50 60 70 80 90 Grades Figure 13.
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Two Sided Test One Sided Test −1.
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lower.area print( lower.area ) [1]
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df = 2 df = 10 −4 −2 0 2 4 valu
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than I’ve done here. For instance
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Anastasia’s students Bernadette
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null hypothesis μ alternative hypo
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ut once again I’m going to start
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for the difference “(mean 1) minu
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null hypothesis μ alternative hypo
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13.5.1 The data The data set that w
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ciMean( x = chico$improvement ) 2.5
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Paired samples t-test Variables: gr
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Grouping variable: ID variable: tim
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In a one-sided confidence interval,
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are different tests. Secondly, I wa
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Table 13.1: A (very) rough guide to
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ut you no longer believe that the c
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Frequency 0 5 10 15 20 Normally Dis
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Sampling distribution of W (for nor
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We then count up the number of chec
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• A paired samples t-test is used
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14. Comparing several means (one-wa
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Mood Gain 0.5 1.0 1.5 placebo anxif
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This formula looks pretty much iden
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is true, then you’d expect all th
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mean square, MS w , can be viewed a
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3 placebo 0.1 0.45 -0.350 0.1225 4
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is choose an α level (i.e., accept
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names( my.anova ) [1] "coefficients
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etaSquared( x = my.anova ) eta.sq e
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One thing that bugs me slightly abo
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If we compare these three p-values
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• Homogeneity of variance. Notice
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Secondly, I did mention that it’s
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Frequency 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sample Qu
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Looking at this table, notice that
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• Post hoc analysis and correctio
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15. Linear regression The goal in t
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The Best Fitting Regression Line No
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• data. The data frame containing
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Figure 15.4: A 3D visualisation of
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Wonderful. A big number that doesn
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If our regression model has K predi
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You can see why this is handy, sinc
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what it is. The test for the signif
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Fortunately, confidence intervals f
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• Uncorrelated predictors. The id
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Outlier Outcome Predictor Figure 15
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Outcome High influence Predictor Fi
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Cook’s distance 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.
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Standardized residuals −2 −1 0
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78 Residuals vs Fitted Residuals
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In a lot of cases, the solution to
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Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01
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15.10.1 Backward elimination Okay,
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+ day 1 1.55760 1837.2 297.08 + bab
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etween those two SS values as a sum
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16. Factorial ANOVA Over the course
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At this point we have 12 different
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drug 2 3.45 1.727 18.6 8.6e-05 ***
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means can be organised into the sam
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attributable to the “ANOVA model
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Only Factor A has an effect Only Fa
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The effect of CBT (difference betwe
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Now, if you go back to the formulas
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Here’s what I mean. Again, let’
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Speaking of interaction effects, he
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16.4 Assumption checking As with on
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16.5.1 The F test comparing two mod
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the degrees of freedom here is 15.
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tfm.2 grade attend reading 1 90 yes
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line, we obtain the following: Ŷ 7
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Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|
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that contains the same data as clin
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What about the case when there does
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R comes with a variety of functions
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enlightening read. There are a lot
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16.8 Post hoc tests Time to switch
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diff lwr upr p adj anxifree:no.ther
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1 yes none 3.700 2 no none 5.550 3
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Analysis of Variance Table Response
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III tests (which are simple) before
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sugar 2.13 2 4.0446 0.045426 * milk
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even simpler. The main effect of su
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However, when we do the same thing
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Part VI. Endings, alternatives and
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first I want to work through a simp
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This is a very useful table, so it
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P pd|hqP phq P ph|dq “ P pdq And
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Bayesian approach relative to the o
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hardly unusual: in my experience, m
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Cumulative Probability of Type I Er
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are wrong. Worse yet, because we do
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library( BayesFactor ) # ...because
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make sense to people who already un
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-------------- [1] Non-indep. (a=1)
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Before moving on, it’s worth high
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17.6.2 The Bayesian version Okay, s
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[2] day : 0.2724027 ˘0% [3] baby.s
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therapy 0.4672 1 8.5816 0.01262 * d
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command that I use when I want to g
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- 586 -
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• Other types of correlations. In
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measurements mean that independence
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the list that I’ve given above is
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So if you were forced to guess my w
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to be able to do more than ANOVA, m
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Fisher, R. A. (1922a). On the inter
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