Learning Statistics with R - A tutorial for psychology students and other beginners, 2018a

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null hypothesis σ=?? μ=μ 0 alternative hypothesis σ=?? μ≠μ 0 value of X value of X Figure 13.4: Graphical illustration of the null and alternative hypotheses assumed by the (two sided) one sample t-test. Note the similarity to the z-test (Figure 13.2). The null hypothesis is that the population mean μ is equal to some specified value μ 0 ,andthealternativehypothesisisthatitisnot. Likethez-test, we assume that the data are normally distributed; but we do not assume that the population standard deviation σ is known in advance. ....................................................................................................... entertaining the hypothesis that they don’t have the same mean, then why should I believe that they absolutely have the same standard deviation? In view of this, I should really stop assuming that I know thetruevalueofσ. This violates the assumptions of my z-test, so in one sense I’m back to square one. However, it’s not like I’m completely bereft of options. After all, I’ve still got my raw data, and those raw data give me an estimate of the population standard deviation: > sd( grades ) [1] 9.520615 In other words, while I can’t say that I know that σ “ 9.5, I can say that ˆσ “ 9.52. Okay, cool. The obvious thing that you might think to do is run a z-test, but using the estimated standard deviation of 9.52 instead of relying on my assumption that the true standard deviation is 9.5. So, we could just type this new number into R and out would come the answer. And you probably wouldn’t be surprised to hear that this would still give us a significant result. This approach is close, but it’s not quite correct. Because we are now relying on an estimate of the population standard deviation, we need to make some adjustment for the fact that we have some uncertainty about what the true population standard deviation actually is. Maybe our data are just a fluke . . . maybe the true population standard deviation is 11, for instance. But if that were actually true, and we ran the z-test assuming σ “ 11, then the result would end up being non-significant. That’s a problem, and it’s one we’re going to have to address. 13.2.1 Introducing the t-test This ambiguity is annoying, and it was resolved in 1908 by a guy called William Sealy Gosset (Student, 1908), who was working as a chemist for the Guinness brewery at the time (see J. F. Box, 1987). Because Guinness took a dim view of its employees publishing statistical analysis (apparently they felt it was a trade secret), he published the work under the pseudonym “A Student”, and to this day, the full name of the t-test is actually Student’s t-test. The key thing that Gosset figured out is how we should - 386 -
df = 2 df = 10 −4 −2 0 2 4 value of t−statistic −4 −2 0 2 4 value of t−statistic Figure 13.5: The t distribution with 2 degrees of freedom (left) and 10 degrees of freedom (right), with a standard normal distribution (i.e., mean 0 and std dev 1) plotted as dotted lines for comparison purposes. Notice that the t distribution has heavier tails (higher kurtosis) than the normal distribution; this effect is quite exaggerated when the degrees of freedom are very small, but negligible for larger values. In other words, for large df the t distribution is essentially identical to a normal distribution. ....................................................................................................... accommodate the fact that we aren’t completely sure what the true standard deviation is. 4 The answer is that it subtly changes the sampling distribution. In the t-test, our test statistic (now called a t-statistic) is calculated in exactly the same way I mentioned above. If our null hypothesis is that the true mean is μ, but our sample has mean ¯X and our estimate of the population standard deviation is ˆσ, then our t statistic is: t “ ¯X ´ μ ˆσ{ ? N The only thing that has changed in the equation is that instead of using the known true value σ, we use the estimate ˆσ. And if this estimate has been constructed from N observations, then the sampling distribution turns into a t-distribution with N ´ 1 degrees of freedom (df). The t distribution is very similar to the normal distribution, but has “heavier” tails, as discussed earlier in Section 9.6 and illustrated in Figure 13.5. Notice, though, that as df gets larger, the t-distribution starts to look identical to the standard normal distribution. This is as it should be: if you have a sample size of N “ 70, 000, 000 then your “estimate” of the standard deviation would be pretty much perfect, right? So, you should expect that for large N, thet-test would behave exactly the same way as a z-test. And that’s exactly what happens! 13.2.2 Doing the test in R As you might expect, the mechanics of the t-test are almost identical to the mechanics of the z-test. So there’s not much point in going through the tedious exercise of showing you how to do the calculations using low level commands: it’s pretty much identical to the calculations that we did earlier, except that we use the estimated standard deviation (i.e., something like se.est
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Learning statistics with R: A tutor
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This book is published under a Crea
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Preface Table of Contents I Backgro
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8.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . .
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VI Endings, alternatives and prospe
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February 16, 2015 Preface to Versio
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and density is discussed. A detaile
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1. Why do we learn statistics? “T
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And finally, an invalid argument wi
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Admission rate (both genders) 0 20
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experiment, and they don’t get an
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2. A brief introduction to research
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different ways: the length of time
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that when I ask 100 people how they
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Table 2.1: The relationship between
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2.3 Assessing the reliability of a
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2.5.1 Experimental research The key
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things “inside” the study. Let
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they lack face validity, you’ll f
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that age is growing at an incredibl
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then it can be a big problem. 2.7.7
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2.7.10 Placebo effects The placebo
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it doesn’t, which one do you thin
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Part II. An introduction to R - 35
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go out into the real world. It’s
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download Rstudio. To understand why
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Most of this text is pretty uninter
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citation() To cite R in publication
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Table 3.1: Basic arithmetic operati
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Division / and Multiplication *, th
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sales * royalty [1] 2450 As far as
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x to the power of 0.5”. Personall
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As you can see, specifying the argu
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Figure 3.3: If you’ve typed the n
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sales.by.month sales.by.month [1]
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profit / days.per.month [1] 0.00000
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not true of R. R is not infinitely
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Table 3.3: Some more logical operat
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In other words, any.sales.this.mont
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and gotten exactly the same result.
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Figure 3.6: The options window in R
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print( keeper ) [1] 8.539539 So, fr
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to import an SPSS data file into R,
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The output here is telling you that
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Figure 4.3: The Rstudio dialog box
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Figure 4.5: The Rstudio “Environm
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this should be obvious already. But
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Figure 4.6: The “file panel” is
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from this file into my workspace. T
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2 February 28 100 high 3 March 31 2
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Figure 4.9: The Rstudio window for
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4.6.1 Special values The first thin
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x y x * y Error in x * y : non-nu
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4.7.1 Introducing factors Suppose,
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factors in 7.11.2, but for now you
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An alternative method is to use the
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4.11 Generic functions There’s on
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load (base) R Documentation The R D
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Warning Saved R objects are binary
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5. Descriptive statistics Any time
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mean of these observations is just:
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mean( afl.margins[1:5] ) [1] 36.6 A
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the median rises only to $62,500. I
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Next, let’s calculate means and m
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5.2 Measures of variability The sta
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English: which game value deviation
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and you get the same... no, wait...
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Mean − SD Mean Mean + SD Figure 5
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Negative Skew No Skew Positive Skew
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Platykurtic ("too flat") Mesokurtic
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e useful, let’s try this for a ne
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argument specifies the grouping var
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grumpiness score. 13 If the mean is
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Frequency 0 5 10 15 20 Frequency 0
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My grumpiness 40 50 60 70 80 90 4 6
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following extract illustrates the b
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Y1 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
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Okay, so let’s have a look at our
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pay 0.760 0.720 . 0.137 . 0.196 . d
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5 6.68 9.75 NA 5 6 5.99 5.04 72 6 B
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• Measures of variability. In con
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6. Drawing graphs Above all else sh
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delete the plot and then type a new
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Fibonacci 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
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high-level functions all rely on th
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type = ’p’ type = ’o’ type
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Fibonacci 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
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Figure 6.8: Altering the scale and
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y the height of the leftmost bar in
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6.3.1 Visual style of your histogra
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (a) (b) Figur
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Winning Margi
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Winning Ma
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6.5.3 Drawing multiple boxplots One
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Winning Margin 0 50 100 150 1987 19
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The second way do to it is to use a
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cor( x = parenthood ) # calculate c
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0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 Adelaide Fitz
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value for mar is c(5.1, 4.1, 4.1, 2
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This takes the “active” figure
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7. Pragmatic matters The garden of
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in the command above I didn’t nam
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speaker ee onk oo pip makka-pakka 0
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2 7 3 3 1 3 3 -1 1 -1 BLAH BLAH BLA
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seen it before. In any case, those
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Table 7.2: Two more arithmetic oper
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fact R does provide a function for
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But suppose, on the other hand, tha
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is select several different variabl
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column number. So, if we want to pi
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case.2 upsy-daisy pip 2 case.4 makk
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Note that R will only allow you to
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7.6.2 Sorting a factor You can also
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Two other methods that I want to br
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At this point you should have two q
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(alcohol, caffeine or no drug). Bec
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3 3 female 4.6 643 7.4 226 7.3 412
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discuss melt() and cast() in a fair
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paste( hw, ng, sep = ".", collapse
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Table 7.3: The ordering of various
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Table 7.4: Standard escape characte
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sub( pattern = "a", replacement = "
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Figure 7.1: The booksales2.csv data
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note that if you don’t have the R
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etween the two. However, there are
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a third variable to the cross-tabs
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today print(today) # display the d
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encode numbers in binary, 29 0.1 is
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environment. And so when you type i
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8. Basic programming Machine dreams
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for ages, you figure out some reall
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Figure 8.2: A screenshot showing th
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8.1.5 Differences between scripts a
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to the second value in vector; and
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crunching, we tell R (on line 21) t
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What this does is create a function
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hundreds of other things besides. H
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Part IV. Statistical theory - 269 -
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me: I guess I don’t see that. Sur
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discussion of probability theory is
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In this case 11 of these 20 coin fl
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frequentists do this sometimes. And
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Probability of event 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.
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proceed to roll all 20 dice, what
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(a) Probability 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15
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In other words, there is a 76.9% ch
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Probability Density 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
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Shaded Area = 68.3% Shaded Area = 9
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Probability Density 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
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• The χ 2 distribution is anothe
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work rather than rchisq() - the obs
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10.1.1 Defining a population A samp
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Figure 10.2: Biased sampling withou
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a stratified sampling technique you
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10.2 The law of large numbers In th
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Table 10.1: Ten replications of the
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Sample Size = 1 Sample Size = 2 Sam
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Sample Size = 1 Sample Size = 2 0.0
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efer to them. For instance, if true
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Average Sample Mean 96 98 100 102 1
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10.5 Estimating a confidence interv
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sense idea of what it means to say
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Average Attendance 0 10000 30000 19
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Here’s how to plot the means and
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Let’s suppose that this glorious
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Dan’s research hypothesis: “ESP
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the type I error rate. As Blackston
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Critical Regions for a Two−Sided
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Page 393 and 394: 13. Comparing two means In the prev
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Page 397 and 398: Two Sided Test One Sided Test −1.
Page 399: lower.area print( lower.area ) [1]
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is choose an α level (i.e., accept
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names( my.anova ) [1] "coefficients
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etaSquared( x = my.anova ) eta.sq e
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One thing that bugs me slightly abo
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If we compare these three p-values
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• Homogeneity of variance. Notice
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Secondly, I did mention that it’s
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Frequency 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sample Qu
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Looking at this table, notice that
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• Post hoc analysis and correctio
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15. Linear regression The goal in t
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The Best Fitting Regression Line No
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• data. The data frame containing
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Figure 15.4: A 3D visualisation of
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Wonderful. A big number that doesn
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If our regression model has K predi
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You can see why this is handy, sinc
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what it is. The test for the signif
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Fortunately, confidence intervals f
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• Uncorrelated predictors. The id
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Outlier Outcome Predictor Figure 15
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Outcome High influence Predictor Fi
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Cook’s distance 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.
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Standardized residuals −2 −1 0
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78 Residuals vs Fitted Residuals
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In a lot of cases, the solution to
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Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01
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15.10.1 Backward elimination Okay,
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+ day 1 1.55760 1837.2 297.08 + bab
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etween those two SS values as a sum
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16. Factorial ANOVA Over the course
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At this point we have 12 different
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drug 2 3.45 1.727 18.6 8.6e-05 ***
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means can be organised into the sam
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attributable to the “ANOVA model
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Only Factor A has an effect Only Fa
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The effect of CBT (difference betwe
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Now, if you go back to the formulas
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Here’s what I mean. Again, let’
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Speaking of interaction effects, he
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16.4 Assumption checking As with on
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16.5.1 The F test comparing two mod
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the degrees of freedom here is 15.
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tfm.2 grade attend reading 1 90 yes
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line, we obtain the following: Ŷ 7
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Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|
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that contains the same data as clin
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What about the case when there does
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R comes with a variety of functions
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enlightening read. There are a lot
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16.8 Post hoc tests Time to switch
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diff lwr upr p adj anxifree:no.ther
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1 yes none 3.700 2 no none 5.550 3
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Analysis of Variance Table Response
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III tests (which are simple) before
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sugar 2.13 2 4.0446 0.045426 * milk
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even simpler. The main effect of su
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However, when we do the same thing
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Part VI. Endings, alternatives and
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first I want to work through a simp
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This is a very useful table, so it
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P pd|hqP phq P ph|dq “ P pdq And
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Bayesian approach relative to the o
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hardly unusual: in my experience, m
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Cumulative Probability of Type I Er
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are wrong. Worse yet, because we do
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library( BayesFactor ) # ...because
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make sense to people who already un
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-------------- [1] Non-indep. (a=1)
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Before moving on, it’s worth high
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17.6.2 The Bayesian version Okay, s
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[2] day : 0.2724027 ˘0% [3] baby.s
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therapy 0.4672 1 8.5816 0.01262 * d
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command that I use when I want to g
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- 586 -
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• Other types of correlations. In
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measurements mean that independence
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the list that I’ve given above is
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So if you were forced to guess my w
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to be able to do more than ANOVA, m
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Fisher, R. A. (1922a). On the inter
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