Lies, Damned Lies, or Statistics- How to Tell the Truth with Statistics, 2017a

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130 INDEX causation, 46 center of a histogram, dataset, or distribution, 15 Central Limit Theorem, CLT, 110–114, 121 classes, in a histogram, 12 Clemens, Samuel [Mark Twain], ix CLT, Central Limit Theorem, 110–114, 121 coin biased, 64 fair, 64, 69, 70, 117 complement, E c , 56–58, 60 conditional probability, P (A | B), 67, 123 confidence interval, 110, 111 confidence interval for μ X with confidence level L, 115, 116 confidence level, 115, 116 confirmation bias, 120 confounded, 102, 103 continuous random variable, 69, 90 control group, 100, 102 CORREL, correlation coefficient in spreadsheets, 41 correlation coefficient, r, 36 correlation is not causation but it sure is a hint, 46 countably infinite, 69 critical value, z ∗ L , 115 data, not the plural of anecdote, 52 dataset, 7 default significance level, 120 definition, in mathematics, 2 democracy, 96 density function, for a continuous random variable, 74, 77, 112 dependent variable, 33 deterministic, 34 direction of a linear association, 35 disaggregation of experimental results, 105 discrete random variable, 69 disjoint events, 57, 59, 62, 63 Disraeli, Benjamin, ix distribution, 15, 70, 73, 112 do no harm, 104 double-blind experiment, 101 Empirical Rule, 83 empty set, ∅,56 epidemiology, 117 equiprobable, 65 ethics, experimental, 91, 104 even number, definition, 2 event, 55, 57–63 Excel [Microsoft], 41, 83, 113, 121–123 expectation, 72 expected value, 72 experiment, 99, 102, 103 experimental design, 52, 91 experimental ethics, 52, 91 experimental group, 100, 102 experimental treatment, 99 explanatory variable, 33 extrapolation, 47 failure to reject H 0 , 118, 119, 123 fair coin, 64, 69, 70, 117 fair, in general, 65 fake news, ix false positive, 124 finite probability models, 63 first quartile, 22 first,donoharm,104 five-number summary, 27 free will, 104 frequency, 7 relative, 7 frequentist approach to probability, 53, 123 Gallup polling organization, 96 Gauss, Carl Friedrich, 78 Gaussian distribution, 78 genetics, 117 “given,” the known event in conditional probability, 67 Great Recession, 20 Hippocrates of Kos, 104 Hippocratic Oath, 104, 105 histogram, 12, 13, 32 relative frequency, 14 How to Lie with Statistics, ix Huff, Darrell, ix Hygieia, 104
INDEX 131 hypothesis, 124 alternative, H a , 118–123 null, H 0 , 118–121, 123, 124 hypothesis test, 110, 111, 117, 121–123 imperfect knowledge, 66 income distribution, 20 independent events, 65, 67, 112, 117, 124 independent variable, 33 individual in a statistical study, 5 inferential statistics, 110 informed consent, 105 insensitive to outliers, 20, 23, 25, 26 Insert Trend Line, display LSRL in spreadsheet scatterplots, 42 Institutional Review Board, IRB, 106 inter-quartile range, IQR,23,25 interpolation, 43 intersection, ∩, 56,57,60,61 IRB, Institutional Review Board, 106 Kernler, Dan, 83 Law of Large Numbers, 94 leaf, in stemplot, 11 least squares regression line, LSRL, 40 left-skewed histogram, dataset, or distribution, 21 LibreOffice Calc, 41, 42, 47, 83, 113, 121–123 lies, ix lies, damned, ix linear association, 35 lower half data, 22 LSRL, least squares regression line, 40 lurking variable, 102, 103 margin of error, 116 mean, 18–21, 25, 31, 112, 122 population, 18, 93–95, 110–112, 114–116, 118, 120–122 sample, 18, 19, 23, 40, 93–95, 112–116, 118, 120–124 media, 28 median, 18, 20, 21, 23, 25, 27, 31, 124 Microsoft Excel, 41, 83, 113, 121–123 mode, 17, 19, 23, 31 MS Excel, 41, 83, 113, 121–123 multi-variable statistics, 2 multimodal histogram, dataset, or distribution, 15 mutually exclusive events, 57 negative linear association, 35 news, fake, ix non-deterministic, 34 NORM.DIST, the cumulative Normal distribution in spreadsheets, 83, 113, 121–123 Normal distribution with mean μ X and standard deviation σ X , 77, 112 normalcdf, the cumulative Normal distribution on a TI-8x calculator, 82, 121, 122 Normally distributed with mean μ X and standard deviation σ X , N(μ X ,σ X ), 78, 112, 114, 115 not, for an event, 56 null hypothesis, H 0 , 118–121, 123, 124 objectivity, 52 observational studies, 103 observational study, 99, 102 one-tailed test, 122 one-variable statistics, 2 or, for events, 56 outcome of an experiment, 55 outlier, 20, 25, 26, 28 bivariate, 45 p-value of a hypothesis test, 118, 119, 123 Panacea, 104 parameter, population, 93–95, 110, 122, 124 personally identifiable information, PII, 105 photon, 54 pie chart, 9 pig, yellow, 17 PII, personally identifiable information, 105 placebo, 100 Placebo Effect, 100, 104 placebo-controlled experiment, 101 population mean, μ X , 18, 93–95, 110–112, 114, 118, 120–122 population of a statistical study, 5, 93, 112, 122, 124 population parameter, 93–95, 110, 122, 124 population proportion, 93–95 population size, N,6
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Lies, Damned Lies, or Statistics: H
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Contents Release Notes Preface iii
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CONTENTS vii 5.3.2. Informed Consen
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x PREFACE of this book to help you
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The first instinct of the scientist
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CHAPTER 1 One-Variable Statistics:
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1.2. VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF DATA,
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1.4. NUMERICAL DESCRIPTIONS OF DATA
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EXERCISES 31 EXERCISE 1.5. Twenty s
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CHAPTER 2 Bi-variate Statistics: Ba
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2.2. SCATTERPLOTS 35 2.2. Scatterpl
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2.3. CORRELATION 37 Many electronic
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CHAPTER 3 Linear Regression Quick r
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3.1. THE LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION L
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3.2. APPLICATIONS AND INTERPRETATIO
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3.3. CAUTIONS 45 3.3. Cautions 3.3.
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3.3. CAUTIONS 47 3.3.3. Extrapolati
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EXERCISES 49 Exercises EXERCISE 3.1
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It is something of an aphorism amon
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54 4. PROBABILITY THEORY the flippi
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56 4. PROBABILITY THEORY There is o
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58 4. PROBABILITY THEORY Sometimes,
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60 4. PROBABILITY THEORY Venn diagr
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62 4. PROBABILITY THEORY A ∩ B, w
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64 4. PROBABILITY THEORY The final
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66 4. PROBABILITY THEORY 4.2. Condi
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68 4. PROBABILITY THEORY nor are {1
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70 4. PROBABILITY THEORY In fact, l
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72 4. PROBABILITY THEORY FACT 4.3.8
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74 4. PROBABILITY THEORY addition,
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76 4. PROBABILITY THEORY FACT 4.3.1
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78 4. PROBABILITY THEORY If X is a
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