The Intelligence Review | volume 5 | issue 9 |
This volume is the product of a transatlantic collaboration between the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) and the European Intelligence Academy (EIA), a network of intelligence studies scholars, specialists and students, who are dedicated to promoting collaboration between Europe and the United States in intelligence scholarship and research. As always, the contents of this latest volume of The Intelligence Review are both timely and insightful. Joshua Altman focuses on the relationship between Scandinavia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance. Jacob Vaughan discusses the future of the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. Hannah Clegg examines the current state of relations between Israel and the Palestinians. Conrad Kodjanian analyzes the evolution and launch prospects of the Chinese digital Yuan. Jake Viator outlines the threats posed to regional stability by the Kata'ib Hezbollah militia in Iran. Ana Maria Lankford discusses the current state of relations between the White House and the United States Intelligence Community. And Jared Gott provides an update on French counter-terrorism efforts in Africa.
This volume is the product of a transatlantic collaboration between the Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (CIB) and the European Intelligence Academy (EIA), a network of intelligence studies scholars, specialists and students, who are dedicated to promoting collaboration between Europe and the United States in intelligence scholarship and research. As always, the contents of this latest volume of The Intelligence Review are both timely and insightful. Joshua Altman focuses on the relationship between Scandinavia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance. Jacob Vaughan discusses the future of the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. Hannah Clegg examines the current state of relations between Israel and the Palestinians. Conrad Kodjanian analyzes the evolution and launch prospects of the Chinese digital Yuan. Jake Viator outlines the threats posed to regional stability by the Kata'ib Hezbollah militia in Iran. Ana Maria Lankford discusses the current state of relations between the White House and the United States Intelligence Community. And Jared Gott provides an update on French counter-terrorism efforts in Africa.
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The Future of the Presidency of Jair
Bolsonaro in Brazil
Jacob Vaughan
Brazil’s current president, Jair Bolsonaro is a polarizing figure,
both within the country and on the international stage. To analyze
his level of job security, we primarily consider his chances of
reelection in 2022 based on domestic popularity and support
from his voter base. The primary drivers of approval for
President Bolsonaro include the state of the Brazilian economy,
the welfare of average citizens, and the perception of Bolsonaro’s
efficacy in making Brazil stronger both domestically and
internationally. Bolsonaro’s constituency is influenced more by
domestic politics, which gives them greater significance in
regards to Bolsonaro’s job security. However, other factors are
also considered, such as the possibility of impeachment or
forceful removal by a coup. At the current state of these variables,
we assess with low confidence Bolsonaro has solidified his job
security until the 2022 election. We assess with high confidence
Bolsonaro will not be reelected in 2022.
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