CMI Annual Report 2021

Bridging the Gap Between CCS Ambition and Reality
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: CHRIS GREIG
At a Glance
Most integrated assessment and other macro-scale energy
system models find that widespread carbon capture and
storage (CCS) at very large scales is crucial to achieve
ambitious CO 2
reduction goals. However, these models assume
that abundant low-cost geological storage is available to meet
all needs. This research presents the contrasting view that
storage capacity uncertainty could seriously hamper the pace
and scale of CCS deployment, especially in developing Asian
economies. This storage capacity uncertainty leads to
“chicken-or-egg” challenges that deter investment. The
implications for emissions reduction goals and the role that
CCS should play in a net-zero future warrant more attention.
Research Highlight
Integrated assessment and other macro-scale energy systems
optimization models (IAMs) for exploring decarbonization
pathways are influential in shaping international, national,
and subnational energy and climate policy. Most such models
indicate very large-scale deployment of CCS in all major
emitting nations. For example, in IAM scenarios which limit
warming to 1.5 °C, median CCS deployment reaches 11Gt CO 2
/y
by 2050 and around 13-23Gt CO 2
/y of CCS by 2100 (Huppmann
et al., 2018). At a national scale, Princeton’s Net-Zero America
study featured at least 1 Gt/y of CCS across all but one scenario
that expressly precluded CO 2
storage (Larson et al., 2021).
Notwithstanding these modeling insights, there remains
disagreement among academics, policymakers, and other
stakeholders about the need for CCS.
In 2021, the researchers reviewed a range of decarbonization
scenarios and assigned the value of CCS in time-bound netzero
pathways to three levels: threshold value (without CCS,
net-zero outcomes are likely to be implausible at a global scale);
commercial value (where minimizing cost is a central goal of a
net-zero transition); and option value (maintaining a credible
CCS option mitigates the risk of other, for example, renewable
heavy pathways, from faltering) (Greig and Uden, 2021). This
value of CCS is driven by its versatility — providing firm
low-carbon power, industrial decarbonization, low-carbon
hydrogen production, and generating negative emissions via
engineered removals.
Carbon Mitigation Initiative Twenty-first Year Report 2021 18