CMI Annual Report 2021

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The research is also examining the ongoing failure to deliver on these modeled scenarios and increasing calls to improve the feasibility of modeled pathways. CCS is just one example where real-world deployment has fallen short of the ambition in modeled scenarios. In 2021, with Postdoctoral Researcher Joe Lane, the research challenged the prevailing supposition behind most IAMs, namely, that CCS capacity can be expanded rapidly to circa gigatonne-per-year levels by mid-century, in most major emitting regions. This supposition assumes that CO 2 storage capacity is ubiquitous, especially in deep saline formations. This modeling perspective derives from discounted static estimates of subsurface spore volume. Investments in CCS, on the other hand, require confidence in accessible, dynamic (injection rate-based) capacity estimates. The latter is much more uncertain and heterogeneous within and across regions. Reducing these uncertainties requires serious site-based investment in characterization, exploration, and appraisal. The researchers posited a conundrum for CCS (Lane et al., 2021) that creates a gap between ambitions and reality: despite the crucial value offered by CCS, its rate of expansion is constrained by a lack of investment confidence due to chickenor-egg type challenges that are founded in uncertainties around storage capacity coupled with the threat of technology substitutes. The chicken-or-egg investment challenge is reflected in Figure 2.1. Failure to address this conundrum presents a risk to CCS deployment levels implied in net-zero targets, especially in fast-growing Asian economies with limited oil and gas production history. Figure 2.2 highlights the gap between historical oil and gas production and one International Energy Agency (IEA) scenario (IEA, 2017) for CCS in India and China. Figure 2.1. Stylized representation of the CCS investment decision and asset development sequence illustrating the potential for chicken-or-egg challenges that might deter investment and constrain the rate of expansion (Lane et al., 2021). 19 Carbon Mitigation Initiative Twenty-first Year Report 2021
Figure 2.2. Comparison of historical oil and gas production data to critique the relative prospects of meeting the regional CCS targets implied in the 2 °C scenario of the IEA’s 2017 Energy Technology Perspectives (IEA, 2017; Lane et al., 2021). The researchers are also working with collaborators at Imperial College London to evaluate the impact of regional CCS constraints on 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios using the TIAM- Grantham IAM, a version of ETSAP-TIAM (Loulou and Labriet, 2008). This research considers the effects of constraining annual CO 2 storage rates to the maximum historical annual oil and gas extraction rates in each region. The research suggests a need to rethink the allocation of CCS as a mitigation option across electricity, fuels, industrial, and negative emissions, with a significant shift in the optimal resource mix to 2050 (Grant et al., submitted 2021). Looking forward, opportunities for further research include: 1. methods to develop plausible regional assessments of dynamic CO 2 storage capacity; and 2. methods to inform the execution feasibility of modeled CCS scenarios based on: • reverse-engineering the asset delivery sequence across CO 2 storage, CO 2 pipelines and CO 2 capture facilities to meet those targets; and then • reverse engineering the investment decision sequence implied by this asset delivery sequence. Such research could help identify policy and critical infrastructure investments necessary to bridge the gap between CCS ambition and reality. Carbon Mitigation Initiative Twenty-first Year Report 2021 20
Page 1 and 2: Annual Report 2021
Page 3 and 4: Contents INTRODUCTION 1 RESEARCH -
Page 5 and 6: The Carbon Mitigation Initiative (C
Page 7 and 8: Annual Meeting For the second conse
Page 9 and 10: Erin Mayfield (left), a postdoctora
Page 11 and 12: Research - At a Glance Toward Accel
Page 13 and 14: Modeling Large-Scale CO 2 Injection
Page 15 and 16: Diverging Fate of Oceanic Oxygen Mi
Page 17 and 18: Louisiana is an attractive initial
Page 19 and 20: Office of the Governor of Louisiana
Page 21: Bridging the Gap Between CCS Ambiti
Page 25 and 26: REPEAT Project Provides Real-time L
Page 27 and 28: and the public. The REPEAT Project
Page 29 and 30: Figure 4.1. Magnitude of different
Page 31 and 32: Soil Uptake and Methane Feedback of
Page 33 and 34: industrial level because most of cu
Page 35 and 36: more methanogenic (Figure 6.1a, Wil
Page 37 and 38: Modeling Large-Scale CO 2 Injection
Page 39 and 40: The most sensitive parameter in the
Page 41 and 42: Improving Forecasts of How Biodiver
Page 43 and 44: The Efficiency of Enhanced Weatheri
Page 45 and 46: Figure 9.2a-b. Map of ACCE (a) and
Page 47 and 48: full sunlight but die quickly in sh
Page 49 and 50: Future Fires Compromise Amazon Fore
Page 51 and 52: Figure 11.1. Emergence of alternati
Page 53 and 54: For the first time, the researchers
Page 55 and 56: Understanding Tropical Cyclone Freq
Page 57 and 58: estimates over the 20 th century al
Page 59 and 60: Calcium (Ca)-Based Solid Sorbents f
Page 61 and 62: This Year’s Publications Allen, M
Page 63 and 64: Larson, E., C. Greig, J. Jenkins, E
Page 65 and 66: Wang, C., B.J. Soden, W. Yang, and
Page 67 and 68: The cover and text pages of this re

CMI Annual Report 2021

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