Credit Management November 2022

International Trade
Monthly round-up of the latest stories
in global trade by Andrea Kirkby.
Changing demographics -
more babies needed
ACCORDING to Australian website
quillette.com, the world is facing slowing
population growth and demographic
decline. In fact, total world population
growth last year was the smallest in half
a century and the global population is
expected to peak sometime later this
century. And by 2050, it’s reckoned that
some 61 countries will see population
declines to the point that the UN thinks
that by 2100 the population will be about
a billion below today’s level – and it’ll be
greyer. To make the point the site states
that in 1970 the median world age was 21.5
years. By 2020, it was 30.9, but by 2100 it
will be 41.9.
As to where the greatest changes are,
Europe’s birth-rate is now below the 2.1
rate required to replace the population; the
birth rate in England and Wales has hit a
record low and a fifth of all British women
are childless by mid-life; and fertility has
dropped “precipitously” in China, Taiwan,
South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore.
And in Japan, population growth has been
declining since the 1960s.
This is a problem for societies and
businesses alike. On the one hand there’s
a looming pension crisis where the
populations won’t have saved as much
as they ought – a problem exacerbated
by the current economic crisis, and there
will be fewer working and paying into the
system at a time when more are taking
money out of the system.
But for firms, demand for goods and
services is going to change and they need
to plan ahead by watching the trends. In
broad brush terms, if you can be first to
market with an appropriate product or
service for the new demographic, you’ll
gain first mover advantage.
GO GO VIETNAM
HOW ironic is it that a former foe of the
capitalist US, communist Vietnam, is
doing rather well economically, reports
credit insurer Atradius.
It noted that the Communist Party of
Vietnam (CPV) remains firmly in power,
despite some public discontent over the
lack of personal freedom, government
corruption and land seizures by the
administration. But it appears that
effective measures against the spread
of Coronavirus increased the legitimacy
of the Government.
Corruption is still a problem
which the CPV seems determined to
fight and disputes with China over the
South China Sea are serious issues to
deal with. However, the economy is
doing OK.
It saw annual growth rates around
7.0 percent between 2012 and 2019, a
slowdown to 2.9 percent in 2020 and
to 2.6 percent in 2021 because of the
pandemic. But it was one of the few
economies that managed to avoid an
economic contraction in 2020.
Atradius reckons that in 2022 the
economy will grow by 7.7 percent and
private consumption should grow by
7.2 percent. There may be a small
denting of these numbers
as economies elsewhere
struggle and so require
less. But nevertheless,
Vietnam should be on any
exporter’s to visit list –
especially if they’re
involved in agriculture,
consumer goods,
electronics/ICT,
machines and
engineering, and
transportation
and logistics.
Government backs Middlesbrough boat builders
FAMILY-owned shipbuilder, Parkol
Marine Engineering, has launched
a new vessel, Green Isle, which on
completion will sail to the west coast of
Ireland from Middlesbrough, marking
its expansion across the country.
The boat is the second to be built as
a result of a new £3m Bond support
package from UK Export Finance
(UKEF). And the contract is the second
exporting win for the business,
with the first contract secured in
2020 for a 27-meter fishing trawler
commissioned by Irish fishing
company D&N Kirwan.
UKEF’s Bond Support deal helped
Parkol and NatWest to provide security
for the buyer’s stage payments in the
form of advance payment guarantees.
Sally Atkinson, director of Parkol
Marine Engineering said: “Exporting
has opened up new opportunities
for our business. Thanks to UKEF’s
support, we’ve unlocked another
major contract and expanded our
business in Ireland by delivering a
high-quality vessel. We’re looking
forward to continuing to capitalise on
our exporting potential and reach new
markets.”
Brave | Curious | Resilient / www.cicm.com / November 2022 / PAGE 32