Interim Report Q3 2012 - Deutsche Post DHL

Future organisation
No material changes to the organisation
No material changes to the Group’s organisational structure are planned for the
fourth quarter of 2012.
Future economic parameters
Uncertainties impact global economic trend
The European sovereign debt crisis continues to create risks for the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global GDP growth will be 3.3 % in
2012, provided that the crisis is gradually contained and that taxes in the United States
are not increased drastically. Growth of 3.6 % is expected in 2013. Global trade is predicted
to increase by 3.2 % in 2012 and 4.5 % in 2013.
In China, growth in 2012 will be considerably weaker than in the past as a result of
lower demand for exports (IMF: 7.8 %). In 2013, growth is forecast to increase slightly
(IMF: 8.2 %). The outlook for the Japanese economy is rather moderate. Foreign trade
is not expected to have a positive impact on growth. Furthermore, it is likely that any
impulses from reconstruction after the earthquake will have levelled off. However,
because of the positive performance in the first half of the year, Japan is projected to
record solid GDP growth in 2012 (IMF: 2.2 %; Postbank Research: 2.7 %). This is expected
to weaken considerably in 2013 (IMF: 1.2 %, Postbank Research: 1.6 %).
In the United States, the economy is projected to experience continued but moderate
growth. Investments in machinery and equipment are likely to increase alongside
investments in construction. Private consumption will grow slowly but steadily. Foreign
trade is not expected to have an impact, whilst public spending is likely to slow
growth for the time being. GDP growth in 2012 is projected to be moderate (IMF: 2.2 %,
Postbank Research: 2.3 %). The outlook for 2013 remains unclear (IMF: 2.1 %; Postbank
Research: 2.5 %).
The euro zone is showing no signs of economic recovery. The need for fiscal consolidation
in particular is likely to put the brakes on the economy. Private consumption is
expected to remain weak; gross fixed capital formation is anticipated to further decrease.
Although foreign trade will presumably continue to prop up the economy, it will not
prevent GDP from declining this year (ECB: –0.4 %; Postbank Research: –0.2 %). In 2013,
the economy in the Economic and Monetary Union is projected to recover slightly (ECB:
0.5 %; Postbank Research: 0.9 %).
The economic environment in Germany has successively worsened. Impulses provided
by foreign trade are likely to recede perceptibly. In addition, the sovereign debt
crisis in the EMU is keeping companies from making investments. Private consumption
may prove to be a pillar of growth. German GDP in 2012 is likely to perform considerably
better than that of the euro zone as a whole (economic research institutes: 0.8 %;
Postbank Research: 1.0 %). The economy is projected to recover slightly in 2013, however
GDP growth will only be minimally higher than this year (economic research institutes:
1.0 %; Postbank Research: 1.2 %).
24 Deutsche Post DHL Interim Report January to September 2012