ECOWAS and Conflict Prevention in West Africa - Center on ...

2
NYU
CIC
1.1. Introduction
west <strong>Africa</strong>’s relative stability follow<strong>in</strong>g a period of violent
<strong>and</strong> protracted conflicts <strong>in</strong> the 1990s is under <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g
attack from a range of exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> emerg<strong>in</strong>g threats. The
emergence or <strong>in</strong> some cases re-emergence of certa<strong>in</strong>
trends, namely armed sub-state groups, small arms
flows <strong>and</strong> the narcotics trade could erode the stability
that the region currently enjoys. Despite progress <strong>in</strong>
consolidat<strong>in</strong>g democracy over the past two decades,
a series of recent military coups has raised questions
about the state of the democratic structures that are
currently <strong>in</strong> place. More generally, much of the region
is still wait<strong>in</strong>g for a ‘democratic dividend’: despite the
return to civilian rule <strong>and</strong> hold<strong>in</strong>g of periodic elections,
the social <strong>and</strong> economic well be<strong>in</strong>g of the vast majority
of people <strong>in</strong> the sub-region rema<strong>in</strong> dire. The near
simultaneous assass<strong>in</strong>ation’s of President Joao Bernado
vieira of Gu<strong>in</strong>ea Bissau <strong>and</strong> the country’s Chief of staff,
General Tagme Na waie <strong>in</strong> 2008 was a glar<strong>in</strong>g rem<strong>in</strong>der of
west <strong>Africa</strong>’s troubled past. Although a military takeover
<strong>in</strong> Gu<strong>in</strong>ea (Conakry) was foreseen if <strong>and</strong> when the oft
expected death of its long-term leader happened, the
occurrence of a coup d’etat <strong>in</strong> December 2008, aga<strong>in</strong>st
the <strong>in</strong>ept <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>competent regime follow<strong>in</strong>g the death of
President Lansana Conté, was nonetheless an unsettl<strong>in</strong>g
development.
There is no doubt that the re-emergence of coup d’etats
is a manifestation of the weaknesses of the democratic
systems that have been established; highlight<strong>in</strong>g the
need to ensure that democracy transcends the hold<strong>in</strong>g
of periodic elections. At the heart of the problem is
the grow<strong>in</strong>g abuse of power by civilian authorities.
For <strong>in</strong>stance, the issue of term limits has proved to be
contentious as several civilians Heads of state have
attempted to change their national constitutions to
prolong their stay <strong>in</strong> power often <strong>in</strong> defiance of public
op<strong>in</strong>ion. Recent attempts by Niger’s President, Mamadu
T<strong>and</strong>ja to change the country’s constitution to allow him
a third term is a glar<strong>in</strong>g manifestation of this troubl<strong>in</strong>g
pattern. 1
Meanwhile, the emergence of al-Qaeda affiliated
groups, primarily <strong>in</strong> the sahel constitutes a new form of
transnational threat with wider global consequences.
the activities of groups such as al-Qaeda <strong>in</strong> the
Maghreb pose serious security threats to countries
<strong>in</strong> the sahel <strong>and</strong> beyond. organized crime is also runn<strong>in</strong>g
rampant <strong>in</strong> the region. outsiders f<strong>in</strong>d it hard to dist<strong>in</strong>guish
between crim<strong>in</strong>al groups that are engaged <strong>in</strong> smuggl<strong>in</strong>g
contrab<strong>and</strong> items <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g hard drugs, groups with
terrorist l<strong>in</strong>ks <strong>and</strong> those with a political agenda.
Establish<strong>in</strong>g the differences between these groups is one of
the hardest challenges confront<strong>in</strong>g national, regional <strong>and</strong>
<strong>in</strong>ternational actors <strong>in</strong> their efforts to combat the multiple
threats to stability <strong>in</strong> west <strong>Africa</strong>.
These developments, com<strong>in</strong>g aga<strong>in</strong>st the backdrop of the
current global economic <strong>and</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial crisis has placed
tremendous pressure on national governments as they
struggle to cope with the dire effects of the crises <strong>and</strong>
respond<strong>in</strong>g to these threats. The challenges are compounded
by the shift<strong>in</strong>g priorities of donor countries, some of whom
have been forced to scale back their assistance due to
the impact of the f<strong>in</strong>ancial meltdown on their national
budgets.
it is aga<strong>in</strong>st this backdrop that this paper addresses three
critical transnational challenges, referred to as the “triple
threats” confront<strong>in</strong>g west <strong>Africa</strong>: governance, drug traffick<strong>in</strong>g
<strong>and</strong> small arms <strong>and</strong> light weapons (SALW). the comb<strong>in</strong>ed
effect of these threats could underm<strong>in</strong>e the security <strong>and</strong>
stability of the entire sub-region. The paper argues that
underst<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g the broad dynamics <strong>and</strong> impacts of poor
governance, the proliferation of sALw <strong>and</strong> drug traffick<strong>in</strong>g
is critical to ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g regional stability as a whole.
while the failure of governance <strong>in</strong> some countries
constitutes a threat to national <strong>and</strong> sub-regional stability,
the proliferation of illicit sALw cont<strong>in</strong>ues to <strong>in</strong>crease the
propensity for societal <strong>in</strong>security. However it is the grow<strong>in</strong>g
use of the sub-region as a transit po<strong>in</strong>t by Lat<strong>in</strong> American
drug cartels that poses the most serious threat to national
<strong>and</strong> regional security.
Meanwhile, the effectiveness <strong>and</strong> neutrality of national
security services, specifically the police, military <strong>and</strong>
gendarmeries rema<strong>in</strong>s a substantial challenge, especially <strong>in</strong>
countries where they are highly politicized. Their neutrality
as defenders of the constitutional order, for example dur<strong>in</strong>g
contested elections cannot be guaranteed. while these issues
are played out at the national level, they are for the most
part transnational as evidenced by the lack of effective law
enforcement <strong>in</strong> Ghana, Nigeria, Togo, Coté d’ivoire among
others <strong>and</strong> therefore require a sub-regional response.
ECowAs <strong>and</strong> <strong>Conflict</strong> <strong>Prevention</strong> <strong>in</strong> west <strong>Africa</strong>: Confront<strong>in</strong>g the Triple Threats