New Council members brush off Chamber of Commerce - Columbia ...

housing market still dragging economy
Post-recession, the positives are once again outnumbering the negatives in Jeff MacLellan’s
annual report on the Columbia area’s economy.
On the plus side in 2010: There’s strong population growth, continued college enrollment
increases, an upturn in retail sales, a bit of a building rebound, a drop in unemployment
from above to below 6 percent, relatively low cost of living, property values holding
steady and extremely low interest rates.
The population spike from the census-estimated 102,324 in 2009 to the census-verified
108,500 in 2010 must have been caused by an underestimate, MacLellan said. A net increase
of 6,176 people, or 6 percent, is more than three times the typical annual rate during the past
few decades. But there’s no doubt that the 28 percent jump in population since 2000 is good
news for the local economy.
On the minus side: The number of jobs dropped for the third straight year, foreclosures
hit a record high, the number of houses sold dipped, the value of commercial building
dropped to the lowest of the decade and the number of business licenses fell.
Although there was a slight increase in home-building permits, “real estate is still in the
dumper,” he said. (Last year at this time, MacLellan predicted that “any recovery in the
housing market is likely to be prolonged.”)
MacLellan, the semi-retired former chairman and CEO of Landmark, said there are also
a few intangibles that are having both positive and negative impacts on the local business
climate.
The plus: Openings of the IBM Service Center and Linen King and the production expansion
at 3M “has provided a psychological boost to the business community,” MacLellan said
during an interview in his office.
The minus: There’s uncertainty caused by the national deficit problem and a drop in
consumer confidence. “People know we can’t keep spending at this pace,” MacLellan said.
“The math doesn’t work.” With the uncertainty, business operators and consumers “are less
likely to make commitments.”
Then there’s what might be called the potential plus: Regional Economic Development
Inc. has an extraordinary large list of pending deals, such as companies interested in locating
a data center here, which could create significant numbers of jobs and tax revenue, according
to MacLellan, who’s a former REDI chairman and has been on the board for about eight
years now.
“REDI is seeing more activity than it ever has,” he said.
MacLellan has been charting the local economic indicators for nearly a quarter century
now. Here are highlights of his latest compilation, put in perspective:
Boone County’s Top employers in 2010
The economic downturn had a delayed impact
on some public sectors, which held steady during
the actual recession but had to reduce employment
last year because of funding cuts. The public
school system shed 12 percent of its workforce, and
the state jobs based here fell about 7 percent. The
county and the Post Office also had cutbacks.
As pointed out last year in the CBT chart, the
strength of higher education and health care
helped minimize the local impact of the recession.
After years of steady losses, manufacturing jobs
rose in 2010 at Hubbell, Schneider and Frito Lay/
Quaker and are expected to rise significantly at 3M
this year.
The numbers collected by REDI don’t reflect
the new jobs at the IBM Service Center, which is
expected to jump into the top 30 next year.
Companies with job growth greater than 10
percent in the past year included Columbia College
and VA Mortgage Center, and the biggest gainer
was Joe Machens, which joined the list this year
because the dealerships were consolidated. v
Dropouts in 2010: Columbia Daily Tribune,
Missouri Employers Mutual
Additions in 2010: CenturyLink, Joe Machens
Dealerships
* Includes MU, Extension and System
employees.
** Excludes MU | n/l Not Listed
*** ABC has added 48 employees since the
survey
Source: Regional Economic Development Inc. Full-time, benefited
employees. Numbers provided by individual companies, government
personnel offices\ and Harris Online Directory (Watlow)
Households/Individuals Per House
2007....................40,856 ....................2.32
2008....................40,233 ....................2.38
2009....................42,143 ....................2.43
2010....................43,722 ....................2.48
(MacLellan said the rise in individuals
per household might be a result of the
economic downturn and “difficult job
market,” as more young adults live at
home while working. “We’ll see what
happens when the economy improves.”)
MU Enrollment
1997................................................22,500
2010................................................32,415
(There have been gains of 1,691, 1,553
and 1,101 in the past three years.)
Retail Sales
2007....................................$1.88 million
2008....................................$1.84 million
2009....................................$1.92 million
2010....................................$1.97 million
Labor Force (jobs in market)
2007................................................93,041
2008................................................92,747
2009................................................92,533
2010................................................92,484
Foreclosures
2008.....................................................307
2009.....................................................298
2010.....................................................347
EMPLOYER EMPLOYEES 1 YR CHANGE ’09 RANK 5-YR CHANGE
1. University of Missouri* 8,630 +85 1 +988
2. University Hospital & Clinics 4,279 +40 2 +727
3. Columbia Public Schools 2,140 -288 3 +110
4. Boone Hospital Center 1,647 -5 4 +313
5. City of Columbia 1,286 +1 5 +97
6. U.S. Dep. of Veterans Affairs 1,250 Same 7 +334
7. Shelter Insurance Companies 1,171 +76 9 +152
8. MBS Textbook Exchange 1,084 -185 6 +149
9. State Farm Insurance Cos. 1,043 -61 8 -36
10 Hubbell Power Systems Inc. 680 +90 11 -120
11. Joe Machens Dealerships 613 +45 ** n/l
12. State of Missouri ** 557 -54 10 +104
13. Kraft Foods Columbia 522 +19 12 -78
14. Columbia College 490 +67 13 +165
15. Boyce & Bynum Pathology Labs 369 -8 15 n/l
16. Boone County Government 365 -12 14 +8
17. ABC Laboratories Inc.*** 348 +18 17 n/l
18. U.S. Postal Service 341 -21 16 n/l
19. Columbia Insurance Group 324 +3 18 +50
20. Schneider Electric: Square D 300 +49 22 -1
21. MidwayUSA 294 +10 20 n/l
22. Boone County National Bank 275 +23 19 +10
23. Watlow Inc. 270 Same 21 -30
24. U.S. Dept of Agriculture 258 +11 24 n/l
25. MFA Inc. 250 Same 23 +9
26. VA Mortgage Center 249 +29 27 n/l
27. Frito-Lay/Quaker 240 +10 25 n/l
28. CenturyLink 230 +xx xx +16
29. Woodhaven 220 +7 28 n/l
Business Licenses
2007..........................4,982
2008..........................5,008
2009......................... 4,933
2010 .........................4,859
Houses Sold
2005......................... 2,900
2006..........................2,301
2007..........................2,079
2008..........................1,715
2009..........................1,688
2010..........................1,634
Building Permits
Total Value
2007.............$214 million
2008.............$144 million
2009.............$168 million
2010.............$128 million
Commercial Permits
Total Value
2008............$86.4 million
2009............. $111 million
2010............$58.6 million
Boone County Property
Total Market Value
2007............. $6.10 billion
2008............. $6.80 billion
2009............. $6.83 billion
2010............. $6.87 billion
30. 3M 210 -1 29 -366
13 April 16, 2011 Columbia Business Times | ColumbiaBusinessTimes.com