227/08 Social challanges s the basis for foresight - Gaia
227/08 Social challanges s the basis for foresight - Gaia
227/08 Social challanges s the basis for foresight - Gaia
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<strong>Social</strong> challenges as<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>basis</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
Cooperative project between<br />
NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)<br />
Tekes Review<br />
<strong>227</strong>/20<strong>08</strong>
<strong>Social</strong> challenges as<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>basis</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
Cooperative project between<br />
NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)<br />
Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan (Eds.)<br />
Themes<br />
Media and ICT in everyday life<br />
Marko Turpeinen, HIIT/KTH<br />
Health in aging society<br />
Raimo Sepponen, TKK<br />
Towards energy and material efficient society<br />
Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva<br />
Tekes Review <strong>227</strong>/20<strong>08</strong><br />
Helsinki 20<strong>08</strong>
Tekes, <strong>the</strong> Finnish Funding Agency <strong>for</strong> Technology and Innovation<br />
Tekes is <strong>the</strong> main public funding organisation <strong>for</strong> research and development<br />
(R&D) in Finland. Tekes funds industrial projects as well as projects<br />
in research organisations, and especially promotes innovative, risk-intensive<br />
projects. Tekes offers partners from abroad a gateway to <strong>the</strong> key<br />
technology players in Finland.<br />
Tekes programmes – Tekes´ choices <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> greatest impact of<br />
R&D funding<br />
Tekes uses programmes to allocate its financing, networking and expert<br />
services to areas that are important <strong>for</strong> business and society.<br />
Programmes are launched in areas of application and technology that<br />
are in line with <strong>the</strong> focus areas in Tekes’ strategy. Tekes allocates about<br />
half <strong>the</strong> financing granted to companies, universities and research institutes<br />
through <strong>the</strong> programmes. Tekes programmes have been contributing<br />
to changes in <strong>the</strong> Finnish innovation environment <strong>for</strong> twenty years.<br />
Copyright Tekes 20<strong>08</strong>. All rights reserved.<br />
This publication includes materials protected under copyright law, <strong>the</strong><br />
copyright <strong>for</strong> which is held by Tekes or a third party. The materials<br />
appearing in publications may not be used <strong>for</strong> commercial purposes. The<br />
contents of publications are <strong>the</strong> opinion of <strong>the</strong> writers and do not represent<br />
<strong>the</strong> official position of Tekes. Tekes bears no responsibility <strong>for</strong> any possible<br />
damages arising from <strong>the</strong>ir use. The original source must be mentioned<br />
when quoting from <strong>the</strong> materials.<br />
ISSN 1239-758X<br />
ISBN 978-952-457-404-4<br />
Cover picture: Digital Archive Japan Inc.<br />
Cover: Oddball Graphics Oy<br />
Page layout: DTPage Oy
Foreword<br />
The Tekes-Japan <strong>for</strong>esight 2007 project was a joint pilot project between <strong>the</strong><br />
Finnish Funding Agency <strong>for</strong> Technology and Innovation (Tekes) and <strong>the</strong> Japanese<br />
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (Nistep). The processes<br />
in each country were similar although conducted separately. This report<br />
presents <strong>the</strong> Finnish <strong>for</strong>esight process and results.<br />
The previously selected societal challenges <strong>for</strong>med <strong>the</strong> starting point of <strong>the</strong> project.<br />
The main objective of <strong>the</strong> Finnish <strong>for</strong>esight process was to identify development<br />
and innovation needs and potentials related to <strong>the</strong> selected societal <strong>the</strong>mes.<br />
The search <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> needs and potentials were linked to <strong>the</strong> Finnish society and to<br />
global business opportunities.<br />
Tekes invited 35 Finnish experts from various research and business sectors to<br />
create a view of <strong>the</strong> future <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> selected <strong>the</strong>mes. The work was largely carried<br />
out in panel-meetings. The chairmen of <strong>the</strong> panels – Jouko Kinnunen, Raimo<br />
Sepponen and Marko Turpeinen – reported on <strong>the</strong> panel <strong>the</strong>mes.<br />
Tekes would like to thank <strong>the</strong> panel members <strong>for</strong> giving <strong>the</strong>ir considerable<br />
knowledge, competence and experience to <strong>the</strong> benefit of this project. Without<br />
your remarkable input this process would not have been possible. Our special<br />
gratitude is expressed to <strong>the</strong> chairmen of <strong>the</strong> panels <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir thorough and competent<br />
work in reporting all ideas and findings.<br />
<strong>Gaia</strong> Consulting acted as <strong>the</strong> process facilitator, who planned <strong>the</strong> panel meeting<br />
techniques in detail and supported and facilitated <strong>the</strong> work, and also reported <strong>the</strong><br />
results of <strong>the</strong> panel meetings. <strong>Gaia</strong>’s Dr. Mikko Syrjänen and Dr. Mari Hjelt provided<br />
excellent process management to <strong>the</strong> project.<br />
Tekes wishes to express its sincere thanks to <strong>the</strong> process consultant team <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
very professional, profound and excellent work. Their work linked and combined<br />
<strong>the</strong> knowledge and expertise of individual panel members to build a common<br />
vision <strong>for</strong> future. The entire process and <strong>the</strong> methods used were both inspiring<br />
and creative.<br />
The results of this <strong>for</strong>esight project have already been used in Tekes’s own strategic<br />
focus area work. This report will make <strong>the</strong>m available to o<strong>the</strong>r organisations.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong>re are still some challenges left <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> future, such as comparing <strong>the</strong><br />
Japanese and Finnish results, this project has been an exciting and evolving experience.<br />
Thank you all <strong>for</strong> your valuable contribution!<br />
Tekes, <strong>the</strong> Finnish Funding Agency <strong>for</strong> Technology and Innovation
Table of contents<br />
Foreword<br />
1 Background and goals. ...................................1<br />
2 Process and methods ....................................3<br />
2.1 Overview of work process and methods ....................3<br />
2.2 Panel process .......................................6<br />
2.3 Mini-Delphi survey. ...................................8<br />
2.4 Methodological reflections ..............................8<br />
3 Media and ICT in everyday life. ............................10<br />
3.1 Introduction .......................................10<br />
3.2 Scenarios <strong>for</strong> 2030 ..................................13<br />
3.3 Vision <strong>for</strong> 2020 .....................................18<br />
3.4 Roadmap .........................................22<br />
3.5 Conclusions and recommendations ......................29<br />
4 Health in aging society ..................................32<br />
4.1 Introduction .......................................32<br />
4.2 Scenarios <strong>for</strong> 2030 ..................................40<br />
4.3 Vision <strong>for</strong> 2030 .....................................45<br />
4.4 Roadmap .........................................47<br />
4.5 Conclusions .......................................49<br />
5 Towards energy and material efficient society .................51<br />
5.1 Introduction .......................................51<br />
5.2 The <strong>for</strong>eseen changes in <strong>the</strong> operational environment .........52<br />
5.3 Setting of a vision and strategic goals and identification of<br />
<strong>the</strong> actions needed to achieve <strong>the</strong> goals ...................55<br />
5.4 Roadmap to society based on energy and material efficiency. ...62<br />
5.5 Conclusions and recommendations ......................64<br />
6 Delphi survey ..........................................67<br />
6.1 Survey <strong>the</strong>mes and respondents ........................67<br />
6.2 Media and ICT .....................................68<br />
6.3 Health ...........................................73<br />
6.4 Energy and material efficiency ..........................77<br />
6.5 Comparison of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>mes. ............................82<br />
7 Cross-<strong>the</strong>matic innovation potential ........................83<br />
7.1 Background and structure .............................83<br />
7.2 Cross-<strong>the</strong>matic challenges and issues ....................83<br />
7.3 Identified innovation potential. ..........................86<br />
Appendix A Full Delphi survey results. ..........................89<br />
Tekes Reviews in English ..................................128
1 Background and goals<br />
Eija Ahola, Tekes<br />
In spring 2007 Tekes (The Finnish Funding<br />
Agency <strong>for</strong> Technology and Innovation) and<br />
NISTEP (<strong>the</strong> National Institute of Science and<br />
Technology Policy of Japan) decided to undertake<br />
a joint <strong>for</strong>esight pilot project.<br />
The project had several goals. NISTEP wanted to<br />
develop and pilot new methodologies <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
next national technology <strong>for</strong>esight survey. International<br />
cooperation in <strong>for</strong>esight was important<br />
<strong>for</strong> both parties. Tekes wanted to deepen and<br />
widen <strong>for</strong>esight <strong>for</strong> some <strong>the</strong>mes already identified<br />
in its own strategic focus area process and<br />
this project provided a good plat<strong>for</strong>m.<br />
The <strong>for</strong>mulation of Tekes strategy focus areas has<br />
developed to a common <strong>for</strong>esight process. Participants<br />
include stakeholders such as Finnish companies,<br />
research institutes and public organisations<br />
that toge<strong>the</strong>r create a view of <strong>the</strong> strategic choices<br />
<strong>for</strong> Finland. Tekes is also cooperating in <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
issues with o<strong>the</strong>r Finnish innovation policy actors.<br />
As an example, Tekes and <strong>the</strong> Academy of Finland<br />
conducted a joint <strong>for</strong>esight project – FinnSight<br />
2015. Networking both multi- and cross-disciplines<br />
and using panel-type discussions are essential features<br />
of Tekes’s overall approach to <strong>for</strong>esight.<br />
NISTEP has a long tradition in technology <strong>for</strong>esight.<br />
They conducted <strong>the</strong>ir 8 th technology <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
survey in 2003–2004, and are now planning<br />
<strong>the</strong> 9 th . NISTEP has actively developed <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
process and methods used. On <strong>the</strong> 8 th round<br />
<strong>the</strong>y widened <strong>the</strong>ir scope from technology to also<br />
include socio-economic analysis. NISTEP also<br />
conduct research and analysis on trends in science<br />
and technology. The science and technology<br />
perspective and Delphi-surveys <strong>for</strong>m essential<br />
parts of NISTEP’s approach to <strong>for</strong>esight.<br />
The process was initiated jointly by Tekes and<br />
Nistep and implemented independently in Finland<br />
and Japan. The work process was based on similar<br />
principles and methodology in both countries but<br />
practical implementation in details varied – and<br />
methods were also developed during <strong>the</strong> project.<br />
The common challenge was to create <strong>the</strong> process<br />
that is based on identified societal challenges and<br />
creates a concrete road-map <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> future. Ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
challenge was to combine two basically different<br />
approaches used in <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight process:<br />
Delphi survey and panel-based <strong>for</strong>esight.<br />
The selected societal challenges <strong>for</strong>med <strong>the</strong> starting<br />
point of <strong>the</strong> project. The selected <strong>the</strong>mes varied<br />
somewhat between Finland and Japan. The<br />
differences in <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>me descriptions reflect differences<br />
in <strong>the</strong> Japanese and Finnish societies,<br />
social systems and business organisations.<br />
The Finnish <strong>the</strong>mes were based in questions related<br />
to<br />
changing media and ICT in everyday life<br />
health and wellbeing in aging society<br />
society based on energy and material<br />
efficiency.<br />
The main purpose of <strong>the</strong> process was to identify<br />
development and innovation needs and potentials<br />
related to <strong>the</strong> selected societal <strong>the</strong>mes. Essential<br />
part of <strong>the</strong> process was also to look <strong>for</strong> innovation<br />
potential across and between <strong>the</strong> selected <strong>the</strong>mes.<br />
The needs and potentials were linked to both<br />
Finnish society and global business opportunities.<br />
At <strong>the</strong> same time as <strong>the</strong> Tekes-Japan <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
project, an ongoing strategy process in<br />
Tekes aimed to identify future priority areas of its<br />
operations. The results of <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight project<br />
support <strong>the</strong> selection of focus areas at Tekes. The<br />
1
Tekes-Japan <strong>for</strong>esight 2007 project also contributes<br />
to <strong>the</strong> development of <strong>for</strong>esight practices and<br />
co-operation between Tekes and o<strong>the</strong>r organizations.<br />
Tekes invited <strong>the</strong> chairmen and 10–15 panel<br />
members <strong>for</strong> each panel to participate in <strong>the</strong><br />
work. Each panel included researchers as well as<br />
business people with visions <strong>for</strong> future and wide<br />
perspective of <strong>the</strong>ir own sectors and society. <strong>Gaia</strong><br />
Consulting Ltd served as <strong>the</strong> process consultant<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> project in Finland. Details of <strong>the</strong> pilot project<br />
were planned and discussed in advance and<br />
throughout <strong>the</strong> process toge<strong>the</strong>r with <strong>the</strong> process<br />
consultants, Tekes and <strong>the</strong> chairmen. <strong>Gaia</strong> Consulting<br />
Ltd acted as a process facilitator, who<br />
planned <strong>the</strong> panel meeting techniques in detail<br />
and supported and facilitated <strong>the</strong> work.<br />
2<br />
From Tekes perspective this project included several<br />
challenges leading to an experimental and<br />
creative <strong>for</strong>esight process. Societal future challenges<br />
as <strong>the</strong> starting point is new at Tekes. Combining<br />
Delphi survey to panel and workshop<br />
based <strong>for</strong>esight process was also a new initiative.<br />
International, simultaneously and independently<br />
conducted collaborative <strong>for</strong>esight was a new way<br />
to try to get some comparative results and deeper<br />
understanding of <strong>for</strong>esight results. This process<br />
will still continue. Methods developed <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
process to facilitate discussion in panel meetings<br />
were creative and productive, and supported both<br />
future and strategic thinking and reporting of results.<br />
These features of <strong>the</strong> process provided a<br />
good learning plat<strong>for</strong>m of <strong>for</strong>esight methodologies<br />
<strong>for</strong> all participants.
2 Process and methods<br />
Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan,<br />
<strong>Gaia</strong> Consulting Ltd<br />
2.1 Overview of work process<br />
and methods<br />
This Chapter introduces <strong>the</strong> overall work process<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Tekes-Japan <strong>for</strong>esight project and <strong>the</strong><br />
methods used. The structure of <strong>the</strong> report is as follows.<br />
The work methods used are examined below<br />
both from <strong>the</strong> point of view of <strong>the</strong>ory and<br />
practical implementation. Chapter 2.2 presents<br />
<strong>the</strong> panel process and aims and accomplishments<br />
of each panel meeting. As a part of <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
project, a Delphi type survey was conducted.<br />
This is briefly presented in Chapter 2.3. As a conclusion<br />
of <strong>the</strong> overall process, chapter 2.4 reflects<br />
<strong>the</strong> methodologies used and assesses <strong>the</strong> pilot<br />
project.<br />
The work was based on a number of <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
methods. These methods are presented in this<br />
Input from<br />
scenarion work<br />
at Tekes<br />
Societal needs,<br />
challenges and goals<br />
Scenario<br />
work<br />
Vision<br />
Road-map<br />
work<br />
chapter first from a <strong>the</strong>oretical point of view and<br />
<strong>the</strong>n explained how each method was implemented<br />
in <strong>the</strong> Tekes-Japan <strong>for</strong>esight 2007 project.<br />
The main methods were expert panels and<br />
Delphi type survey. In addition, <strong>the</strong> expert panels<br />
were supported by scenario methods, roadmap<br />
work and various facilitation methods. The work<br />
methods and <strong>the</strong>ir links to <strong>the</strong> overall process are<br />
presented in figure 2.1.<br />
Expert panels<br />
The expert panel method is <strong>the</strong> most frequently<br />
used <strong>for</strong>esight method in to elicit expert knowledge.<br />
The panels are typically groups of 12-20 individuals<br />
who are given 3-18 months to deliberate<br />
upon <strong>the</strong> future of a given topic. Expert panels<br />
are based on in-depth and meaningful interaction<br />
and networking between different scientific dis-<br />
Innovations<br />
meeting<br />
<strong>the</strong> needs<br />
and challenges<br />
Delphi<br />
survey<br />
Prioritised strategic goals and identified<br />
policies and o<strong>the</strong>r actions needed <strong>for</strong><br />
achieving <strong>the</strong> vision and objectives<br />
Figure 2.1. Overview of <strong>the</strong> process<br />
Japanese Delphi<br />
as a starting<br />
point<br />
Technological<br />
and o<strong>the</strong>r solutions<br />
and <strong>the</strong>ir timing<br />
3
ciplines and areas of expertise. The panel method<br />
complements o<strong>the</strong>r methods used in <strong>for</strong>esight. 1<br />
Expert panels in <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight project were divided<br />
into three <strong>the</strong>mes:<br />
Healthcare and wellbeing<br />
Energy and material efficiency and<br />
Consumers and media.<br />
Each <strong>the</strong>me consisted of working groups consisting<br />
of 10-15 experts. The panels were a focal<br />
point of <strong>the</strong> process. Panel members collected<br />
and analyzed in<strong>for</strong>mation utilizing various methods<br />
to produce recommendations <strong>for</strong> Tekes. The<br />
aim of <strong>the</strong> expert panels was to identify societal<br />
challenges as well as knowledge and innovation<br />
needs and possibilities related to <strong>the</strong>m. The process<br />
was supported and facilitated by a process<br />
consult.<br />
Scenario work<br />
The scenario method is one of <strong>the</strong> main concepts<br />
and most widely used methods in <strong>for</strong>esight. In<br />
<strong>for</strong>esight language a scenario usually refers to<br />
different “stories” illustrating various aspects of<br />
possible futures. Hence scenarios are not predictions<br />
about <strong>the</strong> (most probable) future or <strong>the</strong> most<br />
preferred future. To be effective, a scenario must<br />
be plausible, consistent and offer insights into <strong>the</strong><br />
future. Plausibility in this context means that <strong>the</strong><br />
scenario might conceivably happen. The logics in<br />
a scenario must be internally consistent and <strong>the</strong><br />
scenario should also provide relevant insights <strong>for</strong><br />
decisions. Scenarios help in anticipating <strong>the</strong> context<br />
in which <strong>the</strong> decision makers have to act in<br />
<strong>the</strong> future. 2<br />
4<br />
In <strong>the</strong> Finnish process <strong>the</strong> scenarios were used as<br />
descriptions of <strong>the</strong> future world and environment<br />
where decision will be made 3 . Each panel developed<br />
2-3 scenarios at <strong>the</strong> beginning of <strong>the</strong> process<br />
and <strong>the</strong>se served as a <strong>basis</strong> <strong>for</strong> identifying future<br />
possibilities, needs and challenges.<br />
The <strong>basis</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> scenario work in <strong>the</strong> Tekes-Japan<br />
<strong>for</strong>esight project was <strong>the</strong> scenario work<br />
previously carried out by Tekes as a part of <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
strategy work. These helped in identifying <strong>the</strong><br />
basic trends and drivers, and <strong>the</strong> panelists were<br />
asked to identify significant events and trends<br />
from <strong>the</strong> point of view of <strong>the</strong>ir own <strong>the</strong>me be<strong>for</strong>e<br />
and during <strong>the</strong> first panel meeting. The<br />
<strong>the</strong>me specific scenarios were built to <strong>the</strong> year<br />
2030, except in energy and material efficiency<br />
panel, which choose <strong>the</strong> perspective period of<br />
2050.<br />
Technology road-maps and<br />
backcasting<br />
Roadmaps include visions and projections of future<br />
possible technological developments, products<br />
or environments. They map political or<br />
socio-economic goals back to <strong>the</strong> present S&T<br />
policies through various technological paths.<br />
Usually, roadmapping is a normative tool, i.e. <strong>the</strong><br />
desired future state is pre-determined. It includes<br />
graphical representations in which “nodes”<br />
(states of <strong>the</strong> art in S&T development) are connected<br />
by “links” (causal or temporal relations)<br />
showing <strong>the</strong> nature, rate and direction of potential<br />
S&T developments. 4<br />
1 http://<strong>for</strong>learn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_expert-panel.htm<br />
2 http://<strong>for</strong>learn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_scenario.htm<br />
3 Note that Nistep uses <strong>the</strong> concept scenario to refer to <strong>the</strong> desired future path that <strong>the</strong> technological development<br />
supports. Thus <strong>the</strong> Nistep scenario is closer to <strong>the</strong> vision as defined in <strong>the</strong> Finnish process.<br />
4 http://<strong>for</strong>learn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_roadmapping.htm
In <strong>the</strong> Tekes-Japan <strong>for</strong>esight project roadmapping<br />
covered also societal development (organizations,<br />
legislation, standards etc.) and innovations<br />
from a large perspective, not referring only to<br />
technology. Thus, <strong>the</strong> roadmap method used here<br />
was of a combination of technology roadmaps<br />
and backcasting. 5<br />
The <strong>basis</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> roadmaps was a vision/goal<br />
statement, which was set to each <strong>the</strong>me <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
year 2030/2050. The innovation roadmap outlined<br />
needed actions and technology steps to<br />
achieve <strong>the</strong> vision/goal statement from <strong>the</strong> present<br />
situation to 2030/2050.<br />
Delphi method<br />
Delphi method is an expert survey, which is implemented<br />
in two or more ‘rounds’ in which, in<br />
<strong>the</strong> later rounds of <strong>the</strong> survey <strong>the</strong> results of <strong>the</strong><br />
previous round are given as feedback. Delphi surveys<br />
are not intended to produce statistical results<br />
that would correspond to <strong>the</strong> view a wider public.<br />
The outcomes ra<strong>the</strong>r represent <strong>the</strong> view of a particular<br />
group of experts. The Delphi method is not<br />
used to create consensus but to test if <strong>the</strong>re is already<br />
consensus about <strong>the</strong> future developments.<br />
It reduces tacit and complex knowledge to a single<br />
statement that <strong>the</strong> respondents judge. In <strong>the</strong><br />
most common <strong>for</strong>m, <strong>the</strong> opinions sought concern<br />
particular developments and <strong>the</strong>ir probability,<br />
timing or significance. 6<br />
In <strong>the</strong> Tekes-Japan <strong>for</strong>esight project <strong>the</strong> aim of <strong>the</strong><br />
mini-Delphi survey was to produce a timeline of<br />
possible solutions created by technology and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
innovations. The earlier Japanese Delphi studies<br />
were used as a starting point in <strong>for</strong>mulating <strong>the</strong><br />
statements 7 and <strong>the</strong>y were finalized with <strong>the</strong> help<br />
from <strong>the</strong> panel members. The main part of <strong>the</strong> sur-<br />
vey consisted of statements including technological<br />
or o<strong>the</strong>r solutions and its social application or<br />
impact. For each statement, respondents were requested<br />
to express <strong>the</strong>ir opinion on <strong>the</strong> timing of<br />
both <strong>the</strong> technical realization and social application<br />
of <strong>the</strong> solutions. In addition to <strong>the</strong> timing of individual<br />
statements, more general questions were<br />
asked concerning <strong>the</strong> respondents’ expertise, <strong>the</strong><br />
relevance of <strong>the</strong> areas covered in <strong>the</strong> survey to Finland<br />
as well as <strong>the</strong> need <strong>for</strong> public policy measures<br />
in promoting <strong>the</strong> solutions and <strong>the</strong>ir application.<br />
Due to a tight schedule <strong>the</strong>re was only one round of<br />
<strong>the</strong> Delphi survey. The mini Delphi survey provided<br />
supporting in<strong>for</strong>mation to <strong>the</strong> process. Results<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Delphi-survey were reported to <strong>the</strong><br />
panel members during <strong>the</strong> work process.<br />
Distribution of work and organization<br />
Each <strong>the</strong>me had four panel meetings (workshops).<br />
The facilitator of each <strong>the</strong>me prepared <strong>the</strong><br />
background material and Delphi-survey. The facilitators<br />
also led <strong>the</strong> discussions and took notes<br />
from each panel meeting. All practical issues<br />
were prepared in cooperation between Tekes and<br />
<strong>Gaia</strong> Consulting Ltd.<br />
The chairmen of <strong>the</strong> panels were responsible <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> context of <strong>the</strong> panels but be<strong>for</strong>e each panel<br />
meeting <strong>the</strong> facilitator and chairman went<br />
through <strong>the</strong> structure of each panel meeting. The<br />
chairmen had also <strong>the</strong> main reporting responsibility<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> panel reports.<br />
A project steering group led by Tekes was responsible<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> implementation of <strong>the</strong> process. The<br />
steering group kept contact to Japan and internally<br />
with strategy process of Tekes. Tekes and<br />
Nistep shared material, results and experiences<br />
during <strong>the</strong> process.<br />
5 Backcasting is a method to develop normative scenarios and explore <strong>the</strong>ir feasibility and implications. It can be<br />
characterised as a social learning process and <strong>the</strong> long term perspective makes it possible to let go of <strong>the</strong> present way<br />
of meeting certain specific social needs. More in<strong>for</strong>mation: http://<strong>for</strong>learn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_backcasting.htm<br />
6 http://<strong>for</strong>learn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_delphi.htm<br />
7 The statements were as such: ”Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special glasses and<br />
feeling fatigue in homes” and “Passive solar energy is used largely in housing”.<br />
5
2.2 Panel process<br />
The panel process was implemented in four separate<br />
panel meetings 8 , which were arranged in autumn<br />
2007. Three of <strong>the</strong> meetings had a duration<br />
four hours and one panel meeting was an all-day<br />
meeting, which lasted seven hours. The <strong>the</strong>mes of<br />
<strong>the</strong> panel meetings are listed below. The role of<br />
<strong>the</strong> panel meeting in <strong>the</strong> overall process is illustrated<br />
in Figure 2.2.<br />
Panel meeting 1: Process kick-off, identification<br />
of trends and drivers and creating views of<br />
possible futures (September)<br />
Panel meeting 2: Identification of needs, challenges,<br />
possibilities and strategic options on<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>basis</strong> of possible futures (October)<br />
Panel meeting 3: Setting <strong>the</strong> vision and strategic<br />
goals, and identifying <strong>the</strong> actions needed<br />
<strong>for</strong> achieving <strong>the</strong> goals. (November).<br />
Panel meeting 4: Specifying <strong>the</strong> actions and<br />
<strong>the</strong> roadmap (December)<br />
6<br />
Panel work<br />
Each panel meeting was complemented by background<br />
material and panel members were given<br />
assignments between <strong>the</strong> panel meetings. The<br />
first panel meeting included a joint kick-off with<br />
all three panels and this was followed by specific<br />
sessions <strong>for</strong> each panel separately.<br />
Panel meeting 1: Process kick-off,<br />
identification of trends and drivers and<br />
creating views of possible futures<br />
In <strong>the</strong> first panel meeting, <strong>the</strong> preliminary <strong>the</strong>me<br />
of <strong>the</strong> panel was presented by Tekes, and <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>me was discussed and refined by <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
members. Additionally, an overall description of<br />
<strong>the</strong> process and general background trends and<br />
scenarios were presented. Panel members were<br />
asked to identify major drivers and trends related<br />
to <strong>the</strong>ir panel <strong>the</strong>me be<strong>for</strong>e <strong>the</strong> first meeting.<br />
These were discussed and complemented during<br />
<strong>the</strong> meeting. The main task of <strong>the</strong> meeting was to<br />
identify key trends and draft interesting scenarios<br />
Input from<br />
scenarion work<br />
at Tekes<br />
Innovations<br />
Meeting 1: Kick-off and <strong>the</strong>matic<br />
meeting<br />
scenarios Japanese<br />
<strong>the</strong> needs<br />
Delphi as a<br />
Scenario and challenges<br />
starting point<br />
work<br />
Meeting 2: Challenges, needs and strategic options<br />
Delphi<br />
Technological<br />
Societal needs,<br />
survey<br />
and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
challenges and<br />
solutions and<br />
goals<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir timing<br />
Meeting 3: Vision, strategic Vision goals and essential milestones<br />
Road-map<br />
Meeting 4: Completing <strong>the</strong> innovation<br />
work<br />
road-map and suggestions <strong>for</strong> action plan<br />
Prioritised strategic goals and identified<br />
policies and o<strong>the</strong>r actions needed <strong>for</strong><br />
achieving <strong>the</strong> vision and objectives<br />
Figure 2.2. Panel meetings as a part of <strong>the</strong> process<br />
8 Note: In <strong>the</strong> Finnish process <strong>the</strong> word ‘workshop’ was used as synonym <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> panel meetings.<br />
This use or terminology differs slightly from <strong>the</strong> Japanese process.<br />
05-2007 dm # 293 628
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>me. Panel members also specified <strong>the</strong><br />
target year <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight process according to<br />
what was a relevant perspective period from <strong>the</strong><br />
point of view of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>me.<br />
Panel meeting 2: Identification of needs,<br />
challenges, possibilities and strategic<br />
options on <strong>the</strong> <strong>basis</strong> of possible futures<br />
The preliminary scenarios drafted in <strong>the</strong> first panel<br />
meeting were <strong>the</strong> main focus point <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> second<br />
panel meeting. The pre-meeting assignments covered<br />
each produced scenario. Panel members were<br />
asked to describe how <strong>the</strong> everyday life of an example<br />
family “Suominen” would look in each scenario<br />
and what new needs, challenges and opportunities<br />
each scenarios bring. Panel members were<br />
also asked to identify what technologies or innovations<br />
could be needed or utilized in meeting <strong>the</strong><br />
needs, challenges or opportunities.<br />
Each scenario was discussed in <strong>the</strong> panel meeting<br />
and developed fur<strong>the</strong>r. Some preliminary scenarios<br />
were excluded at this point as a result of group<br />
discussion. Panel members were asked to identify<br />
needs, opportunities and challenges and to<br />
group <strong>the</strong>m <strong>for</strong> each scenario. These were presented<br />
to <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r groups. Finally, <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
members generated ideas <strong>for</strong> possible strategic<br />
options <strong>for</strong> Finland. These ideas were not drafted<br />
per scenario but panel members had ra<strong>the</strong>r an opportunity<br />
to identify freely Finland’s possibilities<br />
by <strong>the</strong> target year chosen.<br />
Panel meeting 3: Setting <strong>the</strong> vision and<br />
strategic goals, and identifying <strong>the</strong><br />
actions needed <strong>for</strong> achieving <strong>the</strong> goals<br />
Notes from <strong>the</strong> previous panel meeting and preliminary<br />
results from <strong>the</strong> mini-delphi –survey<br />
were <strong>the</strong> background material <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> third panel<br />
meeting. Panel members were assigned in advance<br />
with a task to write down a vision/goal<br />
statement <strong>for</strong> Finland <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> year 2030/2050 and<br />
to identify major solutions or changes needed to<br />
be introduced and implemented in order to<br />
achieve this goal. Panel members were also assigned<br />
to identify <strong>the</strong> level of knowledge and<br />
skills related to <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>me in Finland as well as areas<br />
in which Finland is doing well and areas in<br />
which Finland is dragging behind. Chairmen held<br />
a presentation of <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>the</strong>me and summarized <strong>the</strong><br />
results <strong>the</strong> process had achieved so far. The presentation<br />
was followed by a joint discussion of<br />
possible issues that have been missed in <strong>the</strong> discussions<br />
so far.<br />
The first task <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> whole day panel meeting<br />
was to <strong>for</strong>mulate a 1-2 sentence vision/goal statement<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> panel. The second task was to analyze<br />
<strong>the</strong> present state through historical events.<br />
Panel members were requested to mark on<br />
timelines personal issues, societal events and<br />
events relevant to <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>me. The third main task<br />
was to identify major solution areas and <strong>the</strong>mes<br />
to achieve <strong>the</strong> vision/goal statement. These were<br />
selected as a focus point <strong>for</strong> draft roadmap analysis,<br />
which were produced in groups.<br />
Panel meeting 4: Specifying <strong>the</strong> actions<br />
and <strong>the</strong> roadmap<br />
Notes from <strong>the</strong> previous panel meeting and results<br />
from <strong>the</strong> mini-delphi survey were background<br />
material <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> fourth and final meeting.<br />
Pre-meeting assignments involved identifying<br />
areas missing from <strong>the</strong> draft roadmaps and common<br />
<strong>the</strong>mes in <strong>the</strong> roadmaps. The <strong>the</strong>mes were<br />
discussed in <strong>the</strong> meeting jointly and <strong>the</strong>y were<br />
complemented where necessary.<br />
The main focus area of <strong>the</strong> panel meeting was to<br />
develop <strong>the</strong> roadmaps fur<strong>the</strong>r and to identify actions<br />
that are necessary <strong>for</strong> completing <strong>the</strong> goals.<br />
Panel members were first divided into groups that<br />
added missing issues and <strong>for</strong>mulated a specific<br />
goal/target <strong>for</strong> each roadmap concerned. Panel<br />
members were also asked to identify critical decisions<br />
or events that lead to or can prevent achieving<br />
<strong>the</strong> goal. The completed roadmaps were<br />
cross-checked with o<strong>the</strong>r panel members who had<br />
an opportunity to comment and suggest missing<br />
decisions or events <strong>for</strong> each roadmap. Additionally<br />
panel members identified areas of actions<br />
that were common <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> roadmaps. In <strong>the</strong> end<br />
7
discussions panel members were able to give feedback<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> whole <strong>for</strong>esight process and give suggestions<br />
and pinpoint focal areas <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
chairman <strong>for</strong> reporting.<br />
Cross-<strong>the</strong>matic workshop<br />
During <strong>the</strong> panel process it was recognized that<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>matic panels worked with several closely<br />
linked issues. After completing <strong>the</strong> panel workshops,<br />
<strong>the</strong> chairmen of <strong>the</strong> panels met and decided<br />
that an additional workshop <strong>for</strong> examining<br />
cross-cutting issues would be a useful addition to<br />
<strong>the</strong> process. A half day workshop with <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
chairmen and Tekes representatives was thus organized.<br />
Cross-cutting issues are presented separately<br />
in Chapter 7.<br />
2.3 Mini-Delphi survey<br />
The latest Japanese Delphi survey 9 served as a<br />
starting point in developing a suitable survey <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Finnish <strong>for</strong>esight process. The statements of<br />
<strong>the</strong> Japanese Delphi served as a starting point and<br />
potentially interesting statements were selected<br />
from <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>matically broad survey by <strong>the</strong> facilitator<br />
and <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>matic experts at Tekes. This initial<br />
list was analysed, less interesting statements were<br />
dropped and additional statements were added.<br />
The draft list of statements was sent <strong>for</strong> comments<br />
to <strong>the</strong> panel members after which <strong>the</strong> facilitator<br />
and Tekes experts finalized <strong>the</strong> survey.<br />
The survey was implemented in only one round.<br />
This differs from normal Delphi method in which<br />
<strong>the</strong> results of <strong>the</strong> previous round are given as<br />
feedback. The survey was implemented as a web<br />
survey. The survey request was sent to <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
members and to <strong>the</strong> email mailing lists of selected<br />
Tekes technology programmes. In total 130 persons<br />
responded. Each <strong>the</strong>matic area had 33-39<br />
statements and in addition some general questions.<br />
The respondents answered <strong>the</strong> statements<br />
of only one of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>matic areas although <strong>the</strong>y<br />
also had <strong>the</strong> option to answer <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs.<br />
9 http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/ftx/eng/rep097e/idx097e.html<br />
8<br />
The results of <strong>the</strong> Delphi survey are presented in<br />
Chapter 6.<br />
2.4 Methodological reflections<br />
The Tekes Japan <strong>for</strong>esight process also served as<br />
a <strong>for</strong>esight method test bed. It combined <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
approach with Delphi type survey, which has not<br />
been a common practice in <strong>for</strong>esight.<br />
The project can be overall regarded as successful.<br />
For many panel members, <strong>the</strong> process was a valuable<br />
learning experience and <strong>the</strong> process created<br />
mutual understanding among panel members.<br />
For <strong>the</strong> chairmen responsible <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> reporting,<br />
<strong>the</strong> views of <strong>the</strong> panel members and all panel<br />
meetings produced a lot of written material. Additionally,<br />
at <strong>the</strong> end of <strong>the</strong> process chairmen<br />
<strong>the</strong>mselves wanted to have an additional meeting<br />
<strong>for</strong> cross-<strong>the</strong>matic discussions.<br />
The expert panel work received especially additional<br />
value by being facilitated by an independent<br />
facilitator, which differs from <strong>the</strong> handbook<br />
panel work method. The methodology and work<br />
methods used proved to be successful in producing<br />
new ideas. However tight schedule created<br />
challenges <strong>for</strong> this as most of <strong>the</strong> time had to be<br />
used <strong>for</strong> communicating existing knowledge.<br />
When considering aspects to develop similar<br />
types of projects, one aspect is <strong>the</strong> background<br />
knowledge of <strong>the</strong> panel members. The Tekes Japan<br />
process did not include a literature review<br />
part and hence <strong>the</strong> process relied heavily on <strong>the</strong><br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation and expertise each panelist brought<br />
into <strong>the</strong> process. If more time and resources<br />
would have been allocated to produce background<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation, this could have been brought<br />
to <strong>the</strong> panel meetings as background material. A<br />
literature review in <strong>the</strong> beginning and a stronger<br />
contextual support throughout <strong>the</strong> process could<br />
ensure that no relevant aspects are ignored.
Ano<strong>the</strong>r important area is <strong>the</strong> support <strong>for</strong> commitment<br />
and <strong>the</strong> group dynamics. This requires<br />
first of all that <strong>the</strong>re is adequate number of people<br />
in each panel to secure sufficient participation (at<br />
least 7–8 people) in each meeting. The initial<br />
group that is invited should hence be even up to<br />
15 people, depending on <strong>the</strong> level of commitment.<br />
Concerning <strong>the</strong> commitment, enough time<br />
should be allocated to <strong>the</strong> first panel meeting in<br />
order to allow panel members to become better<br />
acquainted with each o<strong>the</strong>r and to commit <strong>the</strong>m to<br />
<strong>the</strong> process.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> Finnish process <strong>the</strong> utilization of <strong>the</strong><br />
mini-Delphi survey turned out to be challenging.<br />
In Japan, <strong>the</strong>re is a consistent tradition of<br />
Delphi-surveys, but <strong>the</strong> Finnish survey was not<br />
sufficiently integrated into <strong>the</strong> process. The panel<br />
members should have had a more active role in<br />
<strong>for</strong>mulating <strong>the</strong> Delphi statements and <strong>the</strong> areas<br />
in <strong>the</strong> Delphi survey should have been selected<br />
only when <strong>the</strong> main solutions <strong>for</strong> each <strong>the</strong>me had<br />
been identified in panel meeting 3. In this way <strong>the</strong><br />
Delphi work would have better supported <strong>the</strong><br />
roadmap work.<br />
During <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight process a cross-comparison<br />
between <strong>the</strong>mes could be valuable. In this case<br />
such a comparison was done between panel<br />
chairmen only during <strong>the</strong> report writing phase.<br />
This meeting aimed at identifying links between<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>mes and recommendations. However, this<br />
could have been a planned procedure from <strong>the</strong> beginning<br />
so that it would have supported <strong>the</strong> work<br />
in <strong>the</strong> panels. Hence sufficient resources should<br />
be allocated to this kind of comparison in case <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>matic areas have linkages like in this case.<br />
Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, a comparison also between Japanese<br />
and Finnish results could have produced<br />
new insights. In general, more co-operation with<br />
<strong>the</strong> Japanese would have been productive.<br />
Finally, it is important to keep in mind that this<br />
kind of <strong>for</strong>esight project is an individual-centered<br />
process. The results of <strong>the</strong> process can be potentially<br />
dominated by <strong>the</strong> chairman or individual<br />
panel members, and this should be taken into notice<br />
when assessing <strong>the</strong> results and utilizing <strong>the</strong>m.<br />
Particularly, this is a challenge when <strong>the</strong> results are<br />
intended to be used in <strong>the</strong> actual strategic policy<br />
making to decide on R&D funding allocation. Far<br />
reaching and important decisions cannot be based<br />
on <strong>the</strong> opinions of few individuals given in <strong>the</strong><br />
context where <strong>the</strong> participants <strong>the</strong>mselves perhaps<br />
do not realize <strong>the</strong> intended use of <strong>the</strong> results. On<br />
<strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, <strong>the</strong> surprise elements and capability<br />
of <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight process to create new ideas suffer<br />
if <strong>the</strong> process is focused only on <strong>the</strong> consensus<br />
opinions validated with a large group of individuals.<br />
In planning <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight one should pay attention<br />
in using methods which en<strong>for</strong>ce panel members<br />
to participate equally so that also <strong>the</strong> more silent<br />
ones get <strong>the</strong>ir voice through and which also<br />
vary and <strong>for</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> participants to look at issues<br />
from various different points of view. Last but not<br />
least, it should be kept in mind that <strong>for</strong>esight is intended<br />
to support <strong>the</strong> strategic decision making but<br />
not to replace it.<br />
9
3 Media and ICT in everyday life<br />
Professor Marko Turpeinen<br />
Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan<br />
Helsinki Institute <strong>for</strong> In<strong>for</strong>mation Technology<br />
Panel chairman<br />
Marko Turpeinen,<br />
Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan and<br />
Helsinki Institute <strong>for</strong> In<strong>for</strong>mation Technology<br />
Panel members<br />
Timo Argillander, Digital Media Finland Oy<br />
Kari Hjelt, Nokia Research Center<br />
Helene Juhola, The Federation of<br />
<strong>the</strong> Finnish Media Industry<br />
Oskar Korkman, Vectia Foresight<br />
Göte Nyman, University of Helsinki<br />
Petteri Repo, Nordic Consumer Research Centre<br />
Risto Setälä, Tekes<br />
Pirjo Tiainen, MTV MEDIA<br />
Janne Viemerö, Tekes<br />
3.1 Introduction<br />
Media takes an ever-growing share of our everyday<br />
life. The media landscape is also rapidly<br />
changing, mainly due to technical innovations<br />
and to <strong>the</strong> accelerating adoption of new technology<br />
by <strong>the</strong> consumer market. The latest examples<br />
are <strong>the</strong> vast expansion of Internet-based media<br />
and mobile technologies over <strong>the</strong> past 20 years.<br />
In parallel, <strong>the</strong> media industry has grown in volume<br />
and importance in <strong>the</strong> global economy. As<br />
new media technologies are created, <strong>the</strong>y challenge<br />
and change <strong>the</strong> traditional mass media industries,<br />
which need to adapt <strong>the</strong>ir strategies to<br />
retain and extend <strong>the</strong>ir markets. Also, <strong>the</strong> use of<br />
media communication in industries and activities<br />
that lie outside <strong>the</strong> media industry proper is rapidly<br />
expanding. Finally, <strong>the</strong> public sector is making<br />
tremendous investments in applying modern<br />
media technology to effectively provide mediated<br />
services to citizens.<br />
The title of this work refers to convergence,<br />
which is frequently used to denote <strong>the</strong> ongoing<br />
10<br />
restructuring of media industry as well as to describe<br />
<strong>the</strong> developments in media <strong>for</strong>ms, distribution,<br />
and consumption. The original “media convergence”<br />
term from mid-1980s by Nicholas<br />
Negroponte predicted that broadcasting, print<br />
and computer industry would converge into a<br />
much larger media industry. In <strong>the</strong> 1990s, this<br />
trans<strong>for</strong>med into convergence between media,<br />
telecommunications, and computer industries.<br />
On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, we have seen technological<br />
variability explode, and <strong>the</strong> amount of media offerings<br />
increase rapidly. In many ways <strong>the</strong> consumer<br />
is facing a diverging landscape of media<br />
content, distribution channels and digital devices<br />
to choose from, and <strong>the</strong> rate of this change is accelerating.<br />
Our task in this <strong>for</strong>esight work was to first <strong>for</strong>mulate<br />
future scenarios of media use, primarily in<br />
Finland. Based on <strong>the</strong>se scenarios we defined a<br />
vision <strong>for</strong> Finland’s media and communication<br />
sector, and sketched roadmaps to complete that<br />
vision. We decided to approach our work through<br />
two different timeframes: year 2030 in defining<br />
future scenarios, and 2020 in specifying Finland’s<br />
vision and roadmaps.<br />
It is <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e a humbling task to consider <strong>the</strong> scenarios<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> next 20 years of consumer media<br />
use, as it is likely that new changes of scale similar<br />
to <strong>the</strong> breakthroughs of <strong>the</strong> Internet and mobile<br />
communications have already started, but<br />
<strong>the</strong>y are not yet identifiable. Equally, it is likely<br />
that new developments totally un<strong>for</strong>eseen today<br />
will emerge.<br />
To put <strong>the</strong> task of our group work in context, we<br />
did an exercise placing different media and communication<br />
uses and technologies of <strong>the</strong> past 30<br />
years on a timeline. The result (Figure 3.1) shows<br />
that <strong>the</strong>re has been a tremendous leap in technology<br />
and change in media use during this time in
Figure 3.1. Timeline of evolution of media use and related technology<br />
Finland. Sector barriers have broken down, and<br />
we have moved from a monoculture to a very diverse<br />
cultural <strong>basis</strong> supported by media industry<br />
that is growing rapidly in complexity. The overall<br />
wealth in Finnish society has grown and people<br />
have invested in media, communication and new<br />
technology.<br />
In everyday consumption, <strong>the</strong> biggest change has<br />
been <strong>the</strong> willingness of consumers to invest in<br />
telecommunication services, whereas traditional<br />
media products have shown more modest growth.<br />
Finland has become a country of 5 million people<br />
with more than 6 million active mobile phone accounts.<br />
Internet access has become quite ubiquitous<br />
in Finland with drastic growth in broadband<br />
use, and willingness to invest in PC and networking<br />
infrastructure in households.<br />
The explosion of mobile and Internet communications<br />
is reflected in <strong>the</strong> current industrial sectors<br />
in Finland. ICT sector has become <strong>the</strong> flagship<br />
of Finnish industry, led by Nokia, and supported<br />
by a large ecosystem of local companies<br />
<strong>for</strong>ming <strong>the</strong> Nokia cluster.<br />
Finland has also been at <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>efront in exploring<br />
new <strong>for</strong>ms of mobile-enabled everyday services,<br />
but <strong>the</strong>se initiatives are yet to make a significant<br />
breakthrough in terms of usage and business success.<br />
On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, despite having had a<br />
leading role in Internet penetration and specific<br />
areas such as Internet banking, Finland is not anymore<br />
a leading developer of new everyday services<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> Internet. Paradoxically, this position<br />
was lost during <strong>the</strong> first half of <strong>the</strong> 2000s despite<br />
<strong>the</strong> rapid growth of Internet use. This happened<br />
because of bloated expectations and investments<br />
of <strong>the</strong> “millennium tech hype” were succeeded by<br />
a nearly total innovation and development freeze<br />
in most Finnish media and telecommunications<br />
companies. There has also been only few successful<br />
start-up companies, and many of <strong>the</strong>m<br />
have been sold to international owners in an early<br />
stage of business growth.<br />
Looking at this development through <strong>the</strong> lenses<br />
of <strong>the</strong> traditional media industry, a different picture<br />
emerges. In <strong>the</strong> mindset of media corporations,<br />
<strong>the</strong> net has only recently evolved into being<br />
one of <strong>the</strong> three large media alongside with print<br />
and television, moving ahead of books, magazines,<br />
radio, and games, and to be taken seriously.<br />
Different media compete of people’s attention,<br />
which has now started to shift towards <strong>the</strong> net.<br />
And where people go, media advertising follows.<br />
However, <strong>the</strong> full picture of media usage in people’s<br />
everyday life includes all previous media,<br />
and <strong>the</strong>y are being re<strong>for</strong>med as synergies are<br />
found between <strong>the</strong> new and <strong>the</strong> old. Growth of <strong>the</strong><br />
Internet does not mean <strong>the</strong> death of o<strong>the</strong>r media.<br />
Looking closer at different types of media, following<br />
observations can be made:<br />
Print. Maybe <strong>the</strong> media that has most often<br />
been considered (by some) to be on <strong>the</strong> brink of<br />
extinction is <strong>the</strong> print media. Despite gloomy<br />
predictions, print media has shown its strength<br />
and resilience in <strong>the</strong> time of rapid digitalization.<br />
Paper is still unrivalled as a medium <strong>for</strong><br />
concentrated reading. However, <strong>the</strong>re are signs<br />
in <strong>the</strong> market that <strong>the</strong> changes in media use and<br />
11
12<br />
shifts in advertising spending are posing large<br />
challenges to <strong>the</strong> traditional print industry.<br />
Print executives are especially concerned<br />
about <strong>the</strong> shrinking consumption of print products<br />
by <strong>the</strong> younger generations. This shift is<br />
probably most visible in <strong>the</strong> newspaper market<br />
in US, but also many o<strong>the</strong>r large markets have<br />
been in decline. This has resulted in newspaper<br />
companies increasing <strong>the</strong>ir investments in<br />
cross media products and web sites to recover<br />
some of <strong>the</strong> lost marketshare advertising market,<br />
and especially in classified ads. Book and<br />
magazine publishing as not been as much affected<br />
yet by <strong>the</strong> growth of <strong>the</strong> electronic media.<br />
There are also wider implications of <strong>the</strong>se<br />
changing patterns of media use, as manifested<br />
by <strong>the</strong> growing downsizing pressures in <strong>the</strong><br />
Finnish <strong>for</strong>est industry.<br />
Television. Television is <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r mass media<br />
giant that has changed tremendously <strong>the</strong> everyday<br />
life and consumption patterns of people in<br />
<strong>the</strong> last 50 years. Finnish broadcasting industry<br />
has gone though several major changes in <strong>the</strong><br />
recent years. The infrastructure has been digitalized,<br />
consumers have changed <strong>the</strong>ir home<br />
equipment to comply with digital standards,<br />
and commercial television companies have<br />
made significant investments in new pay-TV<br />
channels to make a shift from advertising<br />
based revenues to direct consumer subscriptions.<br />
We are also witnessing a rapid expansion<br />
of transfer of video contents on <strong>the</strong> Internet.<br />
One driver <strong>for</strong> this growth is <strong>the</strong> desire to deliver<br />
high quality video-on-demand over <strong>the</strong><br />
Internet. Equally, <strong>the</strong>re has been a vast expansion<br />
of use of short-clip-<strong>for</strong>matted video from<br />
sites like YouTube, which has grown into <strong>the</strong><br />
world’s third most accessed Web site in just<br />
two years. P2P distribution of video has expanded<br />
from marginal activity into a phenomenon<br />
that threatens <strong>the</strong> existing business models<br />
of broadcast television and DVD sales. Simultaneously,<br />
<strong>the</strong>re are significant differences between<br />
age groups in <strong>the</strong> consumption behavior.<br />
Broadcast TV watching in Finland shows a<br />
distinct generation gap between <strong>the</strong> people<br />
over and under 45 years. The older people are<br />
<strong>the</strong> more <strong>the</strong>y follow <strong>the</strong> broadcast media and<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir amount of TV watching minutes has been<br />
growing in <strong>the</strong> past 10 years. The situation is<br />
<strong>the</strong> opposite <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> generations below 45<br />
where <strong>the</strong> trend is slowly downwards. As this<br />
behavioral gap is widening, it may be reasonable<br />
to assume that traditional broadcast TV<br />
watching has already peaked in Finland. Since<br />
<strong>the</strong> largest consumer groups of current broadcasting<br />
television are over 45-year olds, it is vital<br />
to understand how <strong>the</strong> older consumer segments<br />
will behave in <strong>the</strong> future<br />
Games. Gaming branch has grown rapidly to<br />
be one of <strong>the</strong> largest sectors of media industry.<br />
As an example, <strong>the</strong> most popular massively-multiplayer<br />
online game is called Word<br />
of Warcraft (i.e. WoW), which is operated by<br />
US-based Blizzard and owned by French media<br />
conglomerate Vivendi. It has 10 million active<br />
subscribers globally spending 20 hours/<br />
week on average playing <strong>the</strong> game, and paying<br />
approximately 12 euros/month to play <strong>the</strong><br />
game. This would result in 1,5 billion euros of<br />
subscription revenue in 20<strong>08</strong>, which probably<br />
makes WoW <strong>the</strong> most profitable media product<br />
of our time. This rapidly growing online<br />
gaming sector has resulted from a merger between<br />
technically capable infrastructure, social<br />
media use, and creative content production.<br />
Programming and software have a key<br />
role to play in <strong>the</strong> development of a modern entertainment<br />
media. This means also that <strong>the</strong><br />
media sector has increasing need <strong>for</strong> people<br />
who are skilled software architects, designers<br />
and engineers. Game industry is a prime example<br />
of this convergence.<br />
<strong>Social</strong> media. There has been a vast “social<br />
media gap” that new Internet uses have filled<br />
bit by bit. The growth of <strong>the</strong> social media use is<br />
rapidly rising, and social media services have<br />
become <strong>the</strong> most popular <strong>for</strong>ms of web media<br />
alongside with in<strong>for</strong>mation search. There is<br />
also a strong overlap between social media use<br />
and new <strong>for</strong>ms of video sharing and gaming. It<br />
can also be assumed that we have seen only <strong>the</strong><br />
beginning of this change as we move away<br />
from <strong>the</strong> dichotomy of personal media and<br />
one-to-one communications versus mass media.<br />
There are thousands of shades of grey in<br />
between and <strong>the</strong>y interact in very complex<br />
ways. It is no longer meaningful to talk about<br />
<strong>the</strong> clearly defined virtual world or cyberspace<br />
as something different and separated from <strong>the</strong>
“real world”. We are seeing many phenomena<br />
of how <strong>the</strong>se two are intertwined. There is also<br />
a growing need <strong>for</strong> “individualistic social behavior”.<br />
We choose <strong>the</strong> social networks and <strong>the</strong><br />
connections in more individualistic terms, but<br />
<strong>the</strong> goals of <strong>the</strong> collective may be quite altruistic<br />
and truly collective.<br />
Many recent global societal changes have been<br />
triggered by novel media and communication<br />
technologies that are fueling <strong>the</strong> change towards<br />
a network society. The network-based media industry<br />
is global and multi-faceted as innovative<br />
entrepreneurs are developing new types of content<br />
and services. Traditional computer industry<br />
companies have shifted <strong>the</strong>ir attention from hardware<br />
and software applications to digital media<br />
and mediated services, as demonstrated by global<br />
giants such as Microsoft, Apple, SonyEricsson,<br />
Nokia, Google and Yahoo. There is general belief<br />
that media technology is one of <strong>the</strong> biggest global<br />
growth drivers (similarly to software industry in<br />
80s and 90s) within <strong>the</strong> next decades, and <strong>the</strong>re<br />
are several media technology areas of excellence<br />
in Finland: mobile technology and applications,<br />
digital television, paper products, social media<br />
services, games, human-computer interaction,<br />
knowledge in publishing industry, content management,<br />
and semantic web.<br />
It seems that Finland is ideally positioned strategically<br />
in shaping <strong>the</strong>se future developments because<br />
of <strong>the</strong> existing strong foothold in <strong>the</strong> underlying<br />
media and communications technology.<br />
This report examines how to reach this potential<br />
starting with future scenarios that define <strong>the</strong><br />
framework <strong>for</strong> discussion.<br />
3.2 Scenarios <strong>for</strong> 2030<br />
To better understand and analyze possible future<br />
potential we have used <strong>the</strong> method of scenario development,<br />
which has <strong>the</strong> goal of painting pictures<br />
of possible futures that can fur<strong>the</strong>r be used<br />
as a tool <strong>for</strong> analysis and discussion.<br />
The main dimensions <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> future scenarios<br />
were decided to be non-technical, as we assumed<br />
that <strong>the</strong> rapid development in media and commu-<br />
nications technology is expected as default. Technology<br />
changes are on <strong>the</strong> roadmap and <strong>the</strong>y are<br />
crucial <strong>for</strong> future development. However, it is<br />
hard to predict which are <strong>the</strong> core technical areas<br />
where media technology is likely to develop<br />
most. The dimensions under study are more reflecting<br />
<strong>the</strong> relationship of this change to o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
factors involving our everyday media use.<br />
The two areas that were selected <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> analysis<br />
were <strong>the</strong> media behavior of people and <strong>the</strong>ir values<br />
and attitudes, which were fur<strong>the</strong>r refined into<br />
two dimensions to characterize and differentiate<br />
<strong>the</strong> possible future scenarios. These dimensions<br />
were named as 1) change in everyday life, and 2)<br />
agency in media use.<br />
When considering media use in everyday life it is<br />
sometimes difficult to say how much change has<br />
actually happened, and how much of this change<br />
has resulted due to <strong>the</strong> media. Although <strong>the</strong><br />
growth of <strong>the</strong> Internet and mobile technology in<br />
past 10 years has been phenomenal, <strong>the</strong> question<br />
is whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>y have filled old needs or created totally<br />
new behaviors.<br />
By selecting <strong>the</strong> second dimension of agency, we<br />
ask <strong>the</strong> question of whose role it is to provide and<br />
package <strong>the</strong> media that people find in <strong>the</strong>ir everyday<br />
use. Who is in <strong>the</strong> steering wheel: <strong>the</strong> professional<br />
producer or <strong>the</strong> consumer? The realistic<br />
answer is that it will be a mixture of both, but<br />
what makes this interesting is that people’s behavior<br />
and expectations are currently changing.<br />
The resulting media consumption scenarios were<br />
named as follows (Figure 3.2):<br />
1. Better everyday media: The role of <strong>the</strong> media<br />
and communication continues to be to assist<br />
people in <strong>the</strong>ir everyday tasks. The technology<br />
naturally evolves, but our everyday practices<br />
remain approximately unchanged; people<br />
work, learn, interact and entertain <strong>the</strong>mselves<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> same purposes and roughly through <strong>the</strong><br />
same means as be<strong>for</strong>e. The role of media is<br />
both to provide <strong>the</strong> agenda and pace <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
day, but also to allow people <strong>the</strong> flexibility to<br />
choose, to experiment and to be active.<br />
2. Web 5.0: The social media becomes <strong>the</strong> dominant<br />
mode of media use in everyday life. This<br />
13
means also that everyday practices of people<br />
are changing and this is both enabled by technology,<br />
but also taking place due to different<br />
socio-economic processes that drive this<br />
changing media use. The agency is very much<br />
on <strong>the</strong> side of <strong>the</strong> user of media technology.<br />
The user is behind <strong>the</strong> driving wheel, making<br />
selections on what, why, where and when. The<br />
role of professional content creators, especially<br />
journalism, is not necessarily diminishing,<br />
but is moving towards a role of facilitator<br />
of dialogue <strong>for</strong> various parties involved in<br />
on-going dialogue and constantly evolving<br />
media script.<br />
3. Human 2.0: The role of media is to augment<br />
humans in <strong>the</strong>ir daily tasks, especially in making<br />
seamless context-specific decisions <strong>for</strong><br />
our benefit, choosing to filter <strong>the</strong> most relevant<br />
pieces of in<strong>for</strong>mation to us anytime, and by<br />
providing new tools <strong>for</strong> more efficient learning<br />
and knowledge creation. Media’s role is to<br />
help us to carry our daily tasks better, and to<br />
provide us new skills and entertainment experiences<br />
that has not been previously possible.<br />
People have high trust on media service producers<br />
to provide us with <strong>the</strong> right thing at <strong>the</strong><br />
right time. The control is to a large degree on<br />
<strong>the</strong> side media, consisting of both professional<br />
media producers offering material <strong>for</strong> individualized<br />
packaging as well as smart software<br />
systems that make <strong>the</strong> choices on our behalf<br />
and assist us.<br />
14<br />
Stable<br />
everyday life<br />
1. Better<br />
everyday media<br />
Strong agency,<br />
individual control<br />
Weak agency,<br />
media as<br />
<strong>the</strong> agent<br />
2. Web 5.0<br />
3. Human 2.0<br />
Figure 3.2. Three scenarios of <strong>the</strong> media future<br />
Changing<br />
everyday life<br />
In <strong>the</strong> following sections we introduce and discuss<br />
<strong>the</strong>se scenarios in more detail.<br />
Scenario 1: “Better everyday media”<br />
The scenario is based on <strong>the</strong> idea that everyday<br />
life changes relatively slowly, and that our everyday<br />
routines are not so different in 2030 from today.<br />
The home is <strong>the</strong> point where “batteries are<br />
being reloaded” and it continues to act as <strong>the</strong> focus<br />
point around which our lives revolve. Media<br />
finds its role in different everyday contexts, between<br />
which <strong>the</strong>re are quite clear boundaries<br />
(home, work, leisure time, public spaces).<br />
There are no (or only very few) technological<br />
changes or breakthroughs that would be so radical<br />
that <strong>the</strong>y change our everyday routines in a<br />
significant way. There are no drastic changes in<br />
practices and <strong>the</strong> role of media (and media technology)<br />
as <strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation filter, agenda setter,<br />
pacemaker, and packager.<br />
On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r dimension of our analysis, i.e.<br />
agency, this scenario balances in <strong>the</strong> middle<br />
ground. In many ways this can also be continuation<br />
from <strong>the</strong> current situation where we have already<br />
moved many steps toward media use,<br />
which is much more controlled by <strong>the</strong> consumer.<br />
One important change is that media use becomes<br />
more real-time, partly enabled by mobile broadband<br />
Internet. The ubiquitous accessibility (any-
thing, anywhere media) becomes finally a reality.<br />
Most popular uses of Internet - search engines,<br />
messaging, social media, electronic commerce,<br />
banking and payments, entertainment - have migrated<br />
to mobile devices. Mobile TV is also a progression<br />
on this trend having mainly <strong>the</strong> same<br />
media content, but with new devices and new usage<br />
contexts.<br />
The richness and multitude of different family<br />
structures will continue to grow. Despite this,<br />
family entertainment at home is in central role<br />
and is reflected in home electronics, building<br />
styles and decoration. The home electronics<br />
equipment often includes a multitude of devices<br />
<strong>for</strong> different entertainment, and non-entertainment<br />
purposes. For <strong>the</strong> evenings, <strong>the</strong> family ga<strong>the</strong>rs<br />
in front of <strong>the</strong> latest craze: 3DTV.<br />
One continuation along this path is that digital<br />
and electronic media become a seamless part of<br />
our everyday life. Media can be tailored much<br />
better than today based on own interests and<br />
needs. Active media use and participation in<br />
community activities is more relevant. In many<br />
ways this can be considered relevant to <strong>the</strong> ideas<br />
of ubiquitous or ambient intelligence where <strong>the</strong><br />
goal of new technology is to make life easier but<br />
also to disappear, to go out of <strong>the</strong> way, so that people<br />
can go on living <strong>the</strong>ir lives in a more pleasant<br />
and effective way.<br />
However, as <strong>the</strong> technological infrastructure<br />
grows more complex, <strong>the</strong>re will be a growing need<br />
to be able to ef<strong>for</strong>tlessly control <strong>the</strong> home media<br />
environment <strong>for</strong> entertainment. The underlying<br />
technology infrastructure will be drastically simplified<br />
reversing <strong>the</strong> current trend of growing complexity<br />
at home. No wonder people find this complexity<br />
too overwhelming and demand seamless<br />
interconnectivity and simplicity. This growth can<br />
currently be seen, <strong>for</strong> example, by considering <strong>the</strong><br />
modern digital photo infrastructure consisting of<br />
several digital cameras, mobile phones, transfer<br />
cables, wireless connections, PC, TV, media<br />
boxes, removable hard disks, backups, scanners,<br />
printers, drivers, various desktop software, available<br />
network services, etc.<br />
Print media has also evolved to be smarter and to<br />
better meet <strong>the</strong> everyday needs of people. There<br />
will be new systems <strong>for</strong> producing and printing<br />
high-quality print publications at home, or in <strong>the</strong><br />
neighborhood. The frequency of physical delivery<br />
times of newspapers to homes is increased<br />
and become more flexible, i.e. people can have<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir morning paper, afternoon paper, evening paper,<br />
or a customized family paper according to<br />
need. There is also a significant growth in family-centric<br />
self-published content.<br />
New media and in<strong>for</strong>mation technology is ef<strong>for</strong>tless,<br />
seamless, not requiring plenty of attention<br />
(such like paper is today). One of <strong>the</strong> most important<br />
technical steps <strong>for</strong>ward has been made in <strong>the</strong><br />
area of observing human behavior and adapting<br />
to it. 10<br />
Home environments will also become smarter<br />
than <strong>the</strong>y are now. They can notice who is <strong>the</strong>re<br />
and where o<strong>the</strong>r people are. In general, <strong>the</strong> use of<br />
location tracking in<strong>for</strong>mation everywhere grows.<br />
This naturally raises plenty of privacy concerns,<br />
but also new technical solutions <strong>for</strong> privacy management<br />
and pseudonymous services have made<br />
<strong>the</strong>se issues less of a topic <strong>for</strong> burning discussion.<br />
People are very concerned about security, including<br />
both data security and physical security. This<br />
continues to be a booming industry trying to alleviate<br />
<strong>the</strong> risks of <strong>the</strong> vulnerabilities of our digital<br />
and physical life situations. Unique identification<br />
of people has been solved, and we have persistent<br />
“ID-auras” in everyday use that are <strong>the</strong> representation<br />
of our electronic identities.<br />
Technology makes possible real-time communication,<br />
coordination and control in different life<br />
contexts and between <strong>the</strong>m. ICT and media supports<br />
better control of balance between working<br />
tasks and own time. Email will not be as important<br />
as it is now <strong>for</strong> everyday electronic commu-<br />
10 We may be approaching <strong>the</strong> Starfire vision by Sun Microsystems (1993,<br />
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKJNxgZyVo0) , which had <strong>the</strong> emphasis on natural interaction,<br />
seamless transfer of media between different devices, and ubiquitous media capture.<br />
15
nication, as new uses of social media have made<br />
email obsolete <strong>for</strong> most user groups.<br />
Mass transit grows in importance and provides<br />
flexible movement between home and leisure<br />
time. The organisation of work is done in a<br />
smarter way. The productivity at work grows.<br />
People appreciate <strong>the</strong> newly available tools <strong>for</strong><br />
self-memory retrieval and coordination of activities.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong>re will be growing use of media<br />
and communication services in work contexts,<br />
<strong>the</strong>re are limits on what is practical and what people<br />
actually prefer given a choice. Bread has to be<br />
baked in bakery - <strong>the</strong>re will not be distance work<br />
<strong>for</strong> everyone.<br />
New everyday services include: life coordination,<br />
home monitoring and remote control, virtual<br />
presence. We will have more and more demand<br />
<strong>for</strong> individual on demand digital media<br />
space that is used <strong>for</strong> active community participation<br />
and entertainment. One of <strong>the</strong> most important<br />
uses <strong>for</strong> home media services and gadgets are<br />
new uses in support of individual well-being and<br />
health monitoring. This is especially targeted <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> aging population.<br />
There will be novel content genre innovations,<br />
such as reality TV was in <strong>the</strong> 2000s, which increasingly<br />
exploit <strong>the</strong> benefits of novel interactive<br />
and participatory channels. Media offerings<br />
will be more diverse content-wise and easier to<br />
discover. Knowledge representation and management<br />
is essential fueling new <strong>for</strong>ms of applications.<br />
In any case, <strong>the</strong> diversity of media contents and<br />
device base continues to grow.<br />
Scenario 2: “Web 5.0”<br />
This scenario assumes that <strong>the</strong> development that<br />
started in with Web 2.0 will reach <strong>the</strong> whole society<br />
in <strong>the</strong> western world and increasingly in <strong>the</strong><br />
developing countries. The media activity of consumers<br />
will grow significantly, <strong>the</strong> evolving social<br />
media practices become <strong>the</strong> dominant mode<br />
of media use in our everyday life, and our everyday<br />
practices are changing as a result. The agency<br />
16<br />
of media use is primarily on <strong>the</strong> side of <strong>the</strong> user of<br />
media technology.<br />
Everyday life and behavior has changed in many<br />
ways. Extreme self-service culture in Finnish society<br />
is visible everywhere and is also partially<br />
behind <strong>the</strong> new media uses. Media supports<br />
self-service concepts in <strong>the</strong> society, and on <strong>the</strong><br />
o<strong>the</strong>r hand <strong>the</strong> growing field of robotics and home<br />
automation is converging with media technology.<br />
The traditional mass media <strong>for</strong>ms of channel-driven<br />
content packaging and delivery, and<br />
synchronous media consumption, have been<br />
questioned and largely abandoned by <strong>the</strong> media<br />
consumers. This means that <strong>the</strong>re is a need <strong>for</strong><br />
more active role on <strong>the</strong> behalf of people to coordinate<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir own media use, but <strong>the</strong>y are willing to<br />
carry on <strong>the</strong>se novel media chores in everyday<br />
life. As a result people are active in choosing and<br />
creating media content. Media is not “consumed”,<br />
people “are in it”, “use it”, and “do it”.<br />
Mass media era has trans<strong>for</strong>med into <strong>the</strong> participative<br />
media era, where <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ms of participation<br />
and different shared virtual environments<br />
have evolved significantly. People participate in<br />
individualistic communities meaning that people<br />
choose <strong>the</strong>mselves which communities <strong>the</strong>y want<br />
to be associated with. This results in pressures to<br />
redefine <strong>the</strong> functions of national and local media<br />
actors.<br />
People have developed <strong>the</strong>ir identities in a rich<br />
<strong>for</strong>m on <strong>the</strong> net. The importance of avatars as a reflection<br />
of ones identity grows significantly.<br />
Electronic services and virtual spaces are a meaningful<br />
continuation to <strong>the</strong> physical everyday life,<br />
and digital production and participation is easy in<br />
<strong>the</strong>se network environments. Print products are<br />
primarily used to make tangible documentation<br />
of our everyday social lives online and offline.<br />
People do not have <strong>the</strong> will nor energy to always<br />
be active media users, but more control does not<br />
mean constantly active role. People can spend<br />
time with passive entertainment, but <strong>the</strong>y make<br />
<strong>the</strong> selections <strong>the</strong>mselves. <strong>Social</strong> <strong>for</strong>ms of media<br />
use offer also possibilities to follow <strong>the</strong> activities<br />
more passively, as a visitor or a lurker.
Asynchronous and self-selected media use has<br />
meant that people use more media than be<strong>for</strong>e.<br />
However, <strong>the</strong>y want to be in control of selecting<br />
<strong>the</strong> pace of consumption and participation. Mobile<br />
Internet is ubiquitous, and often used <strong>for</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
search, reaching and discovering media content.<br />
The media time is spent mostly with computers<br />
and media devices are always with <strong>the</strong> user.<br />
An important concept that has resulted of <strong>the</strong>se<br />
changes is that we have moved towards ad-hoc life<br />
management. Daily life as considered as a continuously<br />
evolving and flexible process, where daily<br />
decisions are made at <strong>the</strong> individual, group and<br />
community level, supported by media technologies.<br />
The traditional means of communication are<br />
supported with interleaving digital dialogues that<br />
last from morning to late evening. This is not considered<br />
to be stressful. Everyday tasks of scheduling<br />
and calendar-based life are replaced largely by<br />
new practices, as people move to much more flexible<br />
and place-independent meeting styles. This<br />
also means that <strong>the</strong>re will be radical re-thinking of<br />
how people organize <strong>the</strong>ir time as <strong>the</strong> “daily<br />
agenda” rolls <strong>for</strong>ward. This bears resemblance<br />
with <strong>the</strong> agrarian society as work and leisure integrate<br />
in <strong>the</strong> daily life.<br />
Everyday practices are becoming more mediated,<br />
which significantly changes <strong>the</strong> use of time, consumer<br />
behavior and public sector services. Also<br />
environmental awareness has changed <strong>the</strong> everyday<br />
practices, <strong>for</strong> example promoting <strong>the</strong> use of<br />
virtual meetings instead of traveling. The workplace<br />
has become partly virtual and this is a common<br />
practice in most professions. Working<br />
groups typically organize <strong>the</strong>ir meetings in virtual<br />
meeting rooms.<br />
Large part of <strong>the</strong> services is available electronically<br />
and through virtual meetings. For example,<br />
seeing a doctor starts always with a virtual visit,<br />
and <strong>the</strong>n, depending on <strong>the</strong> case, guidance can<br />
happen on <strong>the</strong> net or face-to-face with a doctor.<br />
Peer support groups have more and more importance<br />
in everyday life of people: help, knowledge,<br />
and expertise comes from <strong>the</strong> peer groups, which<br />
means that <strong>the</strong> need <strong>for</strong> media experts in transferring<br />
knowledge and expertise diminishes.<br />
On <strong>the</strong> way to <strong>the</strong> work, people can do a quick<br />
“daily health check” in <strong>the</strong> car, and participate in<br />
<strong>the</strong> community challenge on who can “be <strong>the</strong><br />
most ecological driver of <strong>the</strong> day”. Technology<br />
needs to be easy to use, measuring well-being<br />
(physical and psychological) indicators and <strong>the</strong><br />
progress of highly personalized training programs.<br />
Traveling and nearby nature trekking will be replaced<br />
partly by syn<strong>the</strong>tic digital experiences.<br />
Game playing and “virtual traveling” will get significantly<br />
closer to each o<strong>the</strong>r. If it is raining outside,<br />
<strong>the</strong> fa<strong>the</strong>r can decide to go jogging on a syn<strong>the</strong>tic<br />
but realistic track with <strong>the</strong> dog. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
hand, this increasing virtualization means that<br />
real experiences will grow in perceived value.<br />
The news presented are personalized, based on<br />
individual’s own activity traces on <strong>the</strong> net, <strong>the</strong> importance<br />
score of stories is always calculated individually<br />
and but also using <strong>the</strong> social connections<br />
as part of <strong>the</strong> algorithm to calculate <strong>the</strong> customized<br />
score.<br />
There is plenty of room <strong>for</strong> novel media content innovations<br />
that take advantage of <strong>the</strong> power of collective<br />
intelligence, peer production and open innovations.<br />
The role of professional content creators,<br />
especially journalism, is not necessarily diminishing,<br />
but is moving towards a role of facilitator of dialogue<br />
<strong>for</strong> various parties involved in on-going dialogue<br />
and constantly evolving media script.<br />
Scenario 3: “Human 2.0”<br />
We become more dependent on electronic in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
but <strong>the</strong> amount of in<strong>for</strong>mation and means<br />
of communications that are accessible have exploded<br />
far beyond <strong>the</strong> normal capacity and capabilities<br />
of humans. In<strong>for</strong>mation overload is aggravated<br />
significantly, and we need new solutions to<br />
manage <strong>the</strong> constantly growing flood of in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
communication and media content. People<br />
need significantly better everyday practices and<br />
tools to do <strong>the</strong> prioritization. To control <strong>the</strong> individualized<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation flows people trust electronic<br />
services and media companies to make <strong>the</strong><br />
right choices, and to provide <strong>the</strong> best media <strong>for</strong> a<br />
given situation.<br />
17
The role of media and new technology is to augment<br />
human skills in our daily tasks, especially in<br />
making seamless context-specific decisions <strong>for</strong><br />
our benefit, choosing to filter <strong>the</strong> most relevant<br />
pieces of in<strong>for</strong>mation to us anytime, and by providing<br />
new tools <strong>for</strong> more efficient learning and<br />
knowledge creation. Media is used as <strong>the</strong> all-covering<br />
personal memory and learning enhancer.<br />
<strong>Social</strong> <strong>for</strong>ms of media activity is integrated with<br />
<strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r types of <strong>the</strong> flows mediated by <strong>the</strong>se<br />
augmentation services. People alternate <strong>the</strong>ir media<br />
use between digital media, paper media and<br />
virtual worlds. All of <strong>the</strong>se are highly personal<br />
and tailored <strong>for</strong> individual media use.<br />
New <strong>for</strong>ms of structured metadata and encoded<br />
ontologies have led to novel interactive knowledge<br />
services. Using semantics is possible in various<br />
different contents, services, processing, and distribution.<br />
Overall, <strong>the</strong> understanding of how to encode<br />
and use semantics and machine understandable<br />
representation of common sense has grown<br />
significantly in media products and services.<br />
There is fierce competition in <strong>the</strong> market on who<br />
can provide <strong>the</strong> best semantic assistants <strong>for</strong> people,<br />
which are similar to <strong>the</strong> earlier visions of automated<br />
intelligent agents 11 but combined with<br />
human skills of professional media producers.<br />
People have <strong>the</strong>ir personal services provided by a<br />
ubiquitous servant that is always within reach.<br />
New <strong>for</strong>ms of communications are <strong>for</strong>med as<br />
people are in dialogue with <strong>the</strong>ir assistants. When<br />
everyone has his own virtual agent, <strong>the</strong> media<br />
content is aggregated in a personal way.<br />
Trusted agent service seeks constantly <strong>the</strong> sources<br />
<strong>for</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation and advertisements that <strong>the</strong> person<br />
needs. There is very little unwanted in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
but <strong>the</strong> assistant can provide enough of serendipity<br />
to keep things interesting. Following news and<br />
topical <strong>the</strong>mes is significantly easier with personalized<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation filters. In <strong>the</strong> morning people<br />
receive <strong>the</strong>ir semantic <strong>for</strong>ecast of <strong>the</strong> day: what<br />
are <strong>the</strong> possibilities <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> individual in entertainment,<br />
work, everyday life, based on what <strong>the</strong> person<br />
has indicated as willing to receive.<br />
18<br />
Semantic assistant can act as an authorized representative<br />
in some cases when <strong>the</strong> user is not available<br />
<strong>for</strong> dialogue. The agent is also responsible<br />
on how <strong>the</strong> visibility of personal in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
should be dealt with outsiders, trusted parties,<br />
family, friends, including in<strong>for</strong>mation about<br />
when <strong>the</strong> persona is available, where he is, with<br />
whom, calendar in<strong>for</strong>mation, etc. This digital<br />
identity has a central role in everyday services.<br />
For example, health services can be profiled<br />
better from <strong>the</strong> point of view of personal needs.<br />
Technological development is rapid providing us<br />
with new <strong>for</strong>ms of user interfaces, end devices,<br />
and display technologies. The emphasis is on <strong>the</strong><br />
ease of uses of <strong>the</strong> technology. Natural speech<br />
and gesture interfaces are in commonplace use in<br />
human-computer interaction.<br />
The systems will evolve in <strong>the</strong> direction of better<br />
use of <strong>the</strong> emotional dimension in communications,<br />
including <strong>the</strong> social context, which is also<br />
observed by <strong>the</strong> assistant. This means that our<br />
communications systems become much better in<br />
understanding and conveying emotions, insights,<br />
and knowledge between people, resulting in <strong>the</strong><br />
knowledge sharing personal radar. Significant<br />
steps have been taken in computer-assisted human-centered<br />
communication, where meanings<br />
and human emotions are made more visible and<br />
directly transferable with new technical means.<br />
3.3 Vision <strong>for</strong> 2020<br />
Media and communication industry is growing<br />
and converging with <strong>the</strong> ICT industry, and <strong>the</strong><br />
role of ICT and media in our everyday lives will<br />
increase. Home entertainment, ubiquitous in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
technology and continuous net presence<br />
open up new opportunities <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> media industry.<br />
At <strong>the</strong> same time, media companies face tremendous<br />
challenges to keep <strong>the</strong>ir traditional position.<br />
Mass media that is targeted to assumed segments of<br />
largely homogeneous mass audience is facing new<br />
competition from different <strong>for</strong>ms of 1) narrowcast<br />
11 Apple Knowledge Navigator video (1987, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGYFEI6uLy0) predicts an intuitive<br />
tabletop PC, a world with intelligent systems and personal media “agents” that serve us in our daily tasks.
media: watchers, readers, listeners are moving<br />
into new channels and audiences are fragmenting<br />
into segments that may become unreachable by<br />
traditional means, and 2) prosumer media, which<br />
is created by users and amateur producers complementing<br />
professionally created media.<br />
Because of <strong>the</strong>se new challenges, media industry<br />
that limits itself to a narrow view of media will<br />
cover only a small part of <strong>the</strong> overall media industry<br />
field. Especially, it leaves outside <strong>the</strong> “medial”<br />
viewpoint on communication in our everyday<br />
life: ICT-based communication services, digital<br />
services, and in<strong>for</strong>mation intensive work. In<br />
all of <strong>the</strong>se areas people produce, consume and<br />
distribute “media”, which has not traditionally<br />
been considered to be within <strong>the</strong> field of media industry.<br />
However, this has been recognized as a<br />
major new opportunity <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> ICT industry.<br />
The importance of multinational giants in media<br />
content and digital services is growing, and <strong>the</strong><br />
production is increasingly global using digital<br />
channels <strong>for</strong> distribution. This opens up many<br />
questions <strong>for</strong> a small nation such as Finland. The<br />
local media markets have been protected partially<br />
because of <strong>the</strong> small market size, long distance<br />
and esoteric language. Where will <strong>the</strong> media content<br />
be created in <strong>the</strong> future? What is <strong>the</strong> role of<br />
Finnish media companies in this new situation?<br />
Finnish vision <strong>for</strong> 2020<br />
To be internationally competitive, we need to be<br />
able to make selections on where we want to develop<br />
our competence and where it is realistic to<br />
reach global impact. Based on our analysis we<br />
have <strong>for</strong>mulated <strong>the</strong> following vision <strong>for</strong> Finnish<br />
media and communication sector <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> year<br />
2020.<br />
Finland is a proactive and daring flagship<br />
of <strong>the</strong> changing media environment <strong>for</strong><br />
learning, well-being and entertainment.<br />
Figure 3.3 shows how this vision is <strong>for</strong>med. It<br />
uses three larger drivers as a background, which<br />
are 1) rapid development of technology, 2) media<br />
as an enabler in societal and business practices,<br />
and 3) changing role of users and bigger<br />
consumer power.<br />
Figure 3.3. Vision and goals <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> Finnish converging media and<br />
communications sector in <strong>the</strong> year 2020<br />
19
The vision takes its <strong>basis</strong> from <strong>the</strong> current status<br />
of technically capable Finland, with high level of<br />
competence in key media technology areas: open<br />
media plat<strong>for</strong>ms, mobile internet, and combinations<br />
of print and electronic media. These technical<br />
possibilities can be considered to be a solid<br />
<strong>basis</strong> <strong>for</strong> building new user-centered media services.<br />
The next step is to set our ambition level higher.<br />
We need to experiment with novel service concepts<br />
broadly, evaluate <strong>the</strong>m in large-scale international<br />
trials, and use co-development and open<br />
innovation methods to build thriving laboratories<br />
<strong>for</strong> service generation. This should be complemented<br />
with clever business models that will<br />
work locally as well as in large target markets.<br />
It is important to note that this vision is quite technology-neutral,<br />
and emphasizes instead three<br />
possible breakthrough areas <strong>for</strong> media content<br />
and services: learning, well-being and entertainment.<br />
The choice of <strong>the</strong>se three domains will be<br />
motivated later in this text.<br />
This main vision includes also several sub-goals<br />
that are relevant to reach <strong>the</strong> proposed vision:<br />
Finland has a broad base of successful media<br />
industry including content production, media<br />
delivery and end devices.<br />
Finnish media sector is uniquely focused, profitable<br />
and internationally recognized dynamic<br />
global actor.<br />
Finland is a model country in development and<br />
use of human-centric and multi-cultural media<br />
and communications services.<br />
Finland values knowledge, and, above all, it resides<br />
in human networks and in <strong>the</strong>ir embedded<br />
social capital. Media’s role broadens from<br />
journalistically produced content to a very<br />
large <strong>basis</strong> of interactive – dialogue-like –<br />
knowledge, in<strong>for</strong>mation and entertainment.<br />
Finnish companies are leading players in this<br />
growing area.<br />
Finland has provided a fruitful grounds and<br />
possibilities <strong>for</strong> new types of services that<br />
build on user creativity and human-centricity.<br />
The product innovations are on demand, competitive<br />
and contribute positively to <strong>the</strong> sustainable<br />
global development.<br />
20<br />
There is a continuing need to secure <strong>the</strong> Finns<br />
with multi-faceted and high quality media and<br />
communication services, which will satisfy<br />
<strong>the</strong> ever-changing needs of work and leisure<br />
time.<br />
Finland is internationally recognized as an innovation<br />
centre <strong>for</strong> media and communications<br />
domain, and leading country within EU<br />
in <strong>the</strong> selected areas of learning, well-being<br />
and entertainment.<br />
Where is Finland coming behind o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
countries?<br />
Leadership internationally. According to <strong>the</strong><br />
Delphi survey conducted as part of this <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
work, Finland does not currently have a leadership<br />
position in media technology, media industry<br />
or technologies <strong>for</strong> human communications<br />
(Figure 3.4).<br />
This result can be seen as slightly surprising and<br />
might reflect <strong>the</strong> nature of <strong>the</strong> questions in <strong>the</strong><br />
Delphi study. It is clear that <strong>the</strong> Nokia-led mobile<br />
communications cluster in Finland is at <strong>the</strong> top<br />
class locally, and is building technology <strong>for</strong> human<br />
communications. However, Nokia has only<br />
recently made important strategic moves to becoming<br />
more a media and service provider and<br />
not only a mobile device manufacturer. Ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />
way to interpret <strong>the</strong>se results is that <strong>the</strong>y are reflecting<br />
<strong>the</strong> competitive edge that Finland has in<br />
this sector “besides Nokia”.<br />
Business models <strong>for</strong> new services. It is obviously<br />
important to understand what mechanisms are<br />
driving <strong>the</strong> creation of sustainable business models<br />
<strong>for</strong> new services. In many ways one of <strong>the</strong> reason<br />
of <strong>the</strong> slowing down of investments in this<br />
sector in <strong>the</strong> early 2000s was <strong>the</strong> critical attitude<br />
towards any new development which does not<br />
base itself from <strong>the</strong> start on some easily graspable<br />
business logic. However, many recent media innovations<br />
have been created without a clear business<br />
model in mind. One lesson to learn from an<br />
example like <strong>the</strong> phenomenal growth of Google is<br />
that innovation may lead to global excellence,<br />
which may lead to attractive user base, which<br />
again may lead to <strong>the</strong> emergence of a working<br />
business model. Sometimes <strong>the</strong> “big things” are
Area 1: Media technology <strong>for</strong> different use contexts<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in<br />
<strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 2,6)<br />
(18.1) Leading<br />
2,2% 1<br />
(18.2) Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
53,3% 24<br />
(18.3) Agerage<br />
33,3% 15<br />
(18.4) Somewhat behind<br />
4,4% 2<br />
(18.5) Behind<br />
6,7% 3<br />
(18.6) Do not know<br />
0% 0<br />
Area 2: Media convergence and media industry<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in<br />
<strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 2,8)<br />
(30.1) Leading<br />
(30.2) Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
(30.3) Agerage<br />
(30.4) Somewhat behind<br />
(30.5) Behind<br />
(30.6) Do not know<br />
not based on any traditional business model<br />
(Linux, WWW, Apache, Wikipedia,). Here we<br />
need better understanding of “open and free”, and<br />
incentives behind <strong>the</strong>se ef<strong>for</strong>ts. It has been shown<br />
many times that progress and innovation can happen<br />
without any drive <strong>for</strong> profits, or that profitable<br />
business can emerge as a side effect after<br />
<strong>the</strong>re has been enough interest and enthusiasm to<br />
provide a free and open infrastructure. We see<br />
this phenomenon over and over again in open<br />
source and open content projects, but do not fully<br />
understand <strong>the</strong> value creation mechanisms.<br />
2,2%<br />
40%<br />
42,2%<br />
4,4%<br />
8,9%<br />
2,2%<br />
Area 3: Technologies to support human communication<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in<br />
<strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3)<br />
(46.1) Leading<br />
(46.2) Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
(46.3) Agerage<br />
(46.4) Somewhat behind<br />
(46.5) Behind<br />
(46.6) Do not know<br />
Figure 3.4. Results of <strong>the</strong> Delphi survey on Finland’s international leadership<br />
2,2%<br />
26,1%<br />
54,3%<br />
10,9%<br />
4,3%<br />
2,2%<br />
1<br />
18<br />
19<br />
2<br />
4<br />
1<br />
1<br />
12<br />
25<br />
5<br />
2<br />
1<br />
Access to capital and entrepreneurial spirit. International<br />
marketing and sales has been traditionally<br />
a weak point <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> Finnish growth industries.<br />
There has been significant improvements<br />
in this area, but Finns could be still be<br />
better in selling <strong>the</strong> ideas and commercializing<br />
<strong>the</strong>m globally. Having access to capital to fund<br />
new promising ideas continues to be a bottleneck<br />
in Finland. Also, people are often unwilling to<br />
take <strong>the</strong> role of <strong>the</strong> entrepreneur, which is often<br />
explained by cultural factors and lack of incentives<br />
due to high taxation.<br />
21
Comparing Finland with Japan<br />
Japan has been <strong>the</strong> dominant actor in home electronics<br />
and cameras. Finland has not had a strong<br />
position as a dominant home electronics manufacturer.<br />
However, because of <strong>the</strong> dominant role<br />
of Nokia, it has been successful in keeping <strong>the</strong> position<br />
of global leader in mobile telephony. The<br />
integration of cameras into phones has also made<br />
Nokia <strong>the</strong> world’s largest camera manufacturer in<br />
terms of camera units sold.<br />
Japan is at <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>efront globally in developing<br />
new ubiquitous services <strong>for</strong> everyday use. It has<br />
shown way in such areas as mobile internet use<br />
and mobile payment solutions. Finland has also<br />
been at <strong>the</strong> cutting edge in experimenting new<br />
<strong>for</strong>ms of services over <strong>the</strong> year, but <strong>the</strong> systemic<br />
approach in launching services <strong>for</strong> large-scale<br />
use and exploiting <strong>the</strong> available plat<strong>for</strong>ms to<br />
build new globally unique business has not yet<br />
materialized in a big scale. This may change,<br />
however, partially due to strong emphasis placed<br />
by Nokia in novel mobile media services.<br />
Japanese popular culture has been becoming more<br />
and more visible globally in <strong>the</strong> recent years, especially<br />
through manga, anime, films, and also some<br />
distinctly Japanese computer games. Finnish culture,<br />
on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, is globally quite unknown.<br />
One can even claim that <strong>the</strong>re are no major globally<br />
leading cultural product genres coming from<br />
Finland at <strong>the</strong> moment, as <strong>the</strong> successes in o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
digitized cultural products are relatively rare and<br />
isolated.<br />
Japan is <strong>the</strong> leading actor globally in traditional<br />
computer games: it provides both <strong>the</strong> best dedicated<br />
game devices (Sony and Nintendo), and<br />
leads <strong>the</strong> way globally in defining <strong>the</strong> gaming<br />
culture. The latest global success story of Wii<br />
gaming console has made Nintendo <strong>the</strong> third<br />
largest company in Japan after Toyota and<br />
Mitsubishi by market capitalization. 12 Finland<br />
does not have a major position in global gaming<br />
industry. Finnish game companies have been<br />
successful with individual game titles by high<br />
quality studios like Remedy, mobile game de-<br />
22<br />
velopment, and social gaming services that mix<br />
casual gaming with participative media (Habbo<br />
Hotel). However, <strong>the</strong> gaming industry in Finland<br />
is still in its infancy.<br />
What are <strong>the</strong> central national initiatives<br />
now?<br />
This is a partial list of on-going ef<strong>for</strong>ts in Finland<br />
related to <strong>the</strong> vision:<br />
Newly <strong>for</strong>med Ministry of Employment and<br />
<strong>the</strong> Economy<br />
Tekes on-going programs: VERSO, VAMOS,<br />
Ubicom, TILA<br />
Nokia’s strategic shift into becoming a significant<br />
internet service company<br />
Industry R&D<br />
Active participation in EU research<br />
programmes<br />
E-government services<br />
Dimes<br />
Forum Virium<br />
ICT SHOK, Tivit, and Flexible Services SRA<br />
Forest cluster SHOK<br />
Various Living Labs initiatives<br />
(Finnlab Oulu/Turku, Helsinki Area)<br />
Finnish game industry cluster<br />
Innoprint - innovative printing industry<br />
Helsinki Innovation University<br />
3.4 Roadmap<br />
This chapter introduces seven identified solution<br />
areas to reach <strong>the</strong> vision of <strong>the</strong> previous chapter,<br />
and <strong>the</strong>n specifies a more detailed roadmap <strong>for</strong><br />
three of <strong>the</strong>se. The solution areas can be characterized<br />
as follows:<br />
1. Open media plat<strong>for</strong>ms. Open plat<strong>for</strong>ms<br />
should be supported so that we have an advantage<br />
in building <strong>the</strong> new services more flexibly;<br />
open models are supporting professional<br />
content creation and can benefit from different<br />
<strong>for</strong>ms of “collective intelligence” of people.<br />
2. Mobile Internet. The new possibilities of<br />
ubiquitous media are in many ways related to<br />
<strong>the</strong> possibilities of future mobile internet devel-<br />
12 Financial Times, Jan 4 20<strong>08</strong> (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b748f350-baeb-11dc-9fbc-0000779fd2ac.html)
opment. This future ubimedia plat<strong>for</strong>m consists<br />
of many new business enablers, such as:<br />
– Ubiquitous in<strong>for</strong>mation flows: we can turn<br />
any in<strong>for</strong>mation source to a data flow that is<br />
available anywhere.<br />
– Positioning of people and things: cheap indoor<br />
and outdoor positioning technologies<br />
<strong>for</strong> new media services that are dependent<br />
on context in<strong>for</strong>mation, such as location<br />
sensitive advertising.<br />
– Sensors everywhere: using sensors at home,<br />
at work in our surroundings to make smarter<br />
systems, help ICT solutions to recognize <strong>the</strong><br />
state of <strong>the</strong> environment and adapt to it, and<br />
increase human awareness of effects of our<br />
own everyday behavior.<br />
– Displays everywhere: we can expect <strong>the</strong><br />
growth in various types of electronic display<br />
technologies, and we are rapidly moving<br />
from approximately 10 digital displays<br />
to 100 displays per household; how will this<br />
change our media behavior?<br />
– Ubiquitous data security: reliability of in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
data security and trustworthy infrastructure<br />
become more important over<br />
time, and Finland can be well-positioned to<br />
be competitive in this market.<br />
Nokia wants to more open and concentrating<br />
on <strong>the</strong> Internet and new services. Nokia’s business<br />
activity is currently bigger than <strong>the</strong> music<br />
business or camera business globally, and<br />
<strong>the</strong>se industries could be directed by Nokia, if<br />
<strong>the</strong>y so wish. Finland should make sure that<br />
<strong>the</strong>re exists a new R&D and business cluster<br />
around <strong>the</strong> evolving Nokia. By building a<br />
strong mobile services cluster around Nokia,<br />
Finland can leapfrog from <strong>the</strong> current status of<br />
mediocrity in internet services onto one of <strong>the</strong><br />
major global developers.<br />
3. Culture and entertainment. Can we make<br />
something of a major scale with Finnish culture?<br />
This is not so much about exporting<br />
Finnish cultural products, but to export services<br />
that are rooted in <strong>the</strong> Finnish culture and<br />
have global reach and demand. The ways of<br />
operation are becoming more based on networks,<br />
new partnerships, growing economies;<br />
international collaboration in <strong>the</strong> different axis<br />
of cultural exchange. Many of <strong>the</strong> most important<br />
game developers of Europe are in Nordic<br />
countries, and <strong>the</strong> hope is that we can come up<br />
with novel mixtures with global partnerships.<br />
How about Nintendo Kalevala?<br />
4. Learning. Understanding that democratic access<br />
to in<strong>for</strong>mation and learning has been one<br />
of Finland’s keys to success. By raising <strong>the</strong><br />
knowledge level of <strong>the</strong> whole nation has allowed<br />
to find resources <strong>for</strong> demanding tasks<br />
that has risen <strong>the</strong> country at <strong>the</strong> top international<br />
level, <strong>for</strong> example in telecommunications.<br />
General media skills are at a high level in<br />
Finland, and this needs to be retained, but we<br />
should also be able to trans<strong>for</strong>m <strong>the</strong>se into internationally<br />
important products. Instead of<br />
mechanistic in<strong>for</strong>mation ga<strong>the</strong>ring we need<br />
people who are highly skilled in in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
refining, knowledge creation and exploitation.<br />
We are moving from one-way teaching from<br />
pupils to learners towards community-centric<br />
learning. New <strong>for</strong>ms of community-centric<br />
learning, using new technologies are needed to<br />
support discovery, insight creation and interpretation<br />
will replace <strong>the</strong> existing learning<br />
practices.<br />
5. Well-being and sustainable living. ICT and<br />
media tools are both a problem and a potential<br />
solution. ICT may decrease <strong>the</strong> everyday mobility<br />
thus reducing <strong>the</strong> normal physical activity<br />
level. Then again, <strong>the</strong>re is a big opportunity<br />
to develop new solutions and services that motivate<br />
people to stay in shape (e.g., life span<br />
monitoring of health). Environmental <strong>the</strong>me is<br />
rising from various directions and IT and media<br />
has an important role to play in sustainable<br />
development. Sustainable development puts<br />
pressure on supporting new <strong>for</strong>ms of behavior<br />
related to consumption, mobility and tourism,<br />
which all have links to uses of media technology<br />
and new services. All in all, Finland could<br />
be a model country <strong>for</strong> sustainable living and<br />
<strong>the</strong> usage of IT.<br />
6. Print 2.0. Publishing, print communication<br />
and ICT combined with new products and services<br />
is a unique combination globally, and<br />
fundamental <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> Finnish industrial structure.<br />
There is a need to redefine <strong>the</strong> role of<br />
print products in <strong>the</strong> future landscape of media<br />
use, as media, ICT and paper industry have a<br />
joint future.<br />
23
7. User-centered media. Media’s role will develop<br />
based on observed everyday life of people.<br />
New media breakthroughs come through<br />
projects that involve users from an early stage.<br />
This requires constant measuring, modeling<br />
and development in product design resulting<br />
in continuing perfection of services, media<br />
and design.<br />
In addition we considered <strong>the</strong> following as supporting<br />
solution areas: 1) IPR-<strong>basis</strong>: new business<br />
models make new kinds of IPR-practices; we need<br />
to re-organize <strong>the</strong> IPR status quo in a radically different<br />
way, and 2) innovation environment; increase<br />
R&D funding to <strong>the</strong> development communities;<br />
increase risk funding; experimentation and<br />
risk-taking aside entrepreneurship; user communities<br />
should join <strong>the</strong> development processes.<br />
In our analysis we chose three of <strong>the</strong>se solution<br />
areas <strong>for</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r analysis: user-centered media,<br />
open media plat<strong>for</strong>ms, and print 2.0. This was<br />
more due to <strong>the</strong> interests of panel participants<br />
than due to <strong>the</strong>m being relatively <strong>the</strong> most important<br />
solutions.<br />
User-centered media<br />
Integrating “consumer-driven” and “interactive”<br />
to modes of thinking and measurement tools of <strong>the</strong><br />
media industry is important. This underlines how<br />
far <strong>the</strong> traditional media business has moved from<br />
providing a service <strong>for</strong> individual people (based on<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir individual needs) as well as having a real dialogue<br />
between <strong>the</strong> media professionals and <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
customers. Many media products are created with<br />
<strong>the</strong> advertisers in mind, and <strong>the</strong> tools <strong>for</strong> audience<br />
clustering, such as attitude/values based RISC<br />
analysis, are becoming outdated. There is a new<br />
set of skills that <strong>the</strong> traditional media industry<br />
needs to learn on how to understand what <strong>the</strong> customers<br />
need, and it looks like that it is o<strong>the</strong>r new<br />
players that are taking that role and doing it instead<br />
A key characteristic of <strong>the</strong> Internet era is that media<br />
is becoming more a service than a packaged<br />
product. This has to be reflected in how <strong>the</strong> business<br />
is conducted. Mobile is becoming as powerful<br />
as PC technology and <strong>the</strong> two might largely<br />
merge by <strong>the</strong> year 2020.<br />
24<br />
It seems that <strong>the</strong> advertising business model is rising<br />
in prominence and will be even more important<br />
than be<strong>for</strong>e. However, <strong>the</strong>re is very strong<br />
business drive towards customized and contextdependent<br />
advertising (just watch what Google is<br />
doing). The old models of segmenting, targeting<br />
and measuring audiences do not apply as such.<br />
People in <strong>the</strong> industry (professional media and advertising)<br />
talk about fragmentation as a problem,<br />
when in fact it is just as well could be considered as<br />
better customer service.<br />
Behaviorial analysis necessitates rich means to<br />
observe, analyze and utilize human behavior.<br />
Better understanding of media user experience is<br />
important, and human-centric and multi-disciplinary<br />
media research is needed <strong>for</strong> this purpose.<br />
Collecting dynamically and in real time in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
about <strong>the</strong> use of products and services is a<br />
key skill <strong>for</strong> human-centric development. This results<br />
in making constant changes and revisions in<br />
<strong>the</strong> services, thus shortening <strong>the</strong> development cycles<br />
drastically. Swarm behavior is different than<br />
uses of current social media, and we can provide<br />
new <strong>for</strong>ms of following how <strong>the</strong> flocks behave<br />
and move vis-a-vis each o<strong>the</strong>r. Here new mobile<br />
Internet tools are <strong>the</strong> key enabler.<br />
There needs to be ways to measure success and<br />
excellence of user interfaces better. Conceptualizing<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>Social</strong> UI may become a critical new<br />
business enabler. People need better tools to control<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir presence in different social circles.<br />
Prosumer UIs are also different that consumer<br />
UIs, and understanding this difference is critical.<br />
Finally, here is a list of o<strong>the</strong>r conditions relevant<br />
<strong>for</strong> human-centric development:<br />
Local content in local language is not disappearing,<br />
and this is not so much connected to<br />
<strong>the</strong> changes in journalism and journalistic content.<br />
However, <strong>the</strong> segment that wants to experience<br />
big media in <strong>the</strong> original language is<br />
growing.<br />
Self-service society is a global phenomena, and<br />
Finland becoming <strong>the</strong> #1 in ICT-enabled self<br />
service concepts.
Figure 3.5. User-centered media roadmap<br />
Generational differences means that seniors<br />
and young people have changing practices in<br />
communications.<br />
Elegant design is based on high skills in <strong>the</strong><br />
media and service design, where <strong>the</strong>re is vast<br />
potential in Finland, which we have not yet<br />
been able to exploit in esign of media content<br />
and services.<br />
Interface is <strong>the</strong> key. We need to get away from<br />
<strong>the</strong> mechanistic user interface. Technology<br />
and media becomes anthropomorphized when<br />
we add humanistic understanding to technology.<br />
Measuring humans (physiological signals,<br />
simplistic design) becomes more relevant,<br />
as well as building systems that react to<br />
human emotions.<br />
Device is <strong>the</strong> challenge: Agent or assistant technology<br />
is adjusting to <strong>the</strong> user and resulting in<br />
<strong>the</strong> need <strong>for</strong> effective direct and indirect control<br />
mechanisms on media devices. Best assistants<br />
makes a good and systematic analysis of <strong>the</strong><br />
world <strong>for</strong> us, and understand human language.<br />
Open media plat<strong>for</strong>ms<br />
Open development and innovation models are fast<br />
spreading in different areas of digital industry. Media<br />
industry is striving toward media products and<br />
services, where <strong>the</strong> traditional <strong>for</strong>ms of production<br />
are joined with production and distribution structures<br />
typical to Internet (e.g. open source software).<br />
Also, <strong>the</strong> technical <strong>basis</strong> of media industry<br />
is shifting from standard-centricity to “open solution”-centricity,<br />
where on-going big wave is open<br />
plat<strong>for</strong>ms <strong>for</strong> media content management and distribution,<br />
as well as open interfaces between web<br />
services, and resulting service mashups. Equally<br />
strongly, we see this same trend clearly in virtual<br />
environments and online games.<br />
Big ICT actors are promoting open environments,<br />
and Linux is an example of a vast global<br />
success story in this area. Finnish hackers have<br />
been major initiators of this and o<strong>the</strong>r software<br />
initiatives that have grown into significant global<br />
scale. Sometimes <strong>the</strong>se projects bring nice na-<br />
25
tional PR, which of course helps our small country,<br />
but may not bring so much business benefits.<br />
Openness has proven to be an effective means to<br />
create new services, and in general openness belief<br />
is currently strong. This is largely based on<br />
<strong>the</strong> idea that <strong>the</strong> actor who is able to develop <strong>the</strong><br />
open and central hubs <strong>for</strong> activity will understand<br />
be<strong>for</strong>e o<strong>the</strong>rs what <strong>the</strong> business model is that will<br />
support <strong>the</strong> emerging activity in <strong>the</strong> long run.<br />
This model has worked especially well <strong>for</strong><br />
Google (but not so well <strong>for</strong> some o<strong>the</strong>rs). The meter<br />
<strong>for</strong> success should be whe<strong>the</strong>r Finland has<br />
been able to create significant amount of new<br />
business growth based on <strong>the</strong> open initiatives, or<br />
gained o<strong>the</strong>r measurable indirect benefits, such<br />
as significantly raising <strong>the</strong> local knowledge level.<br />
This latter may be a suitable criteria to assess <strong>the</strong><br />
importance of Linux on Finland.<br />
Open models of knowledge creation and innovation<br />
take time as <strong>the</strong>re a strong cultural shift that needs to<br />
26<br />
Figure 3.6. Detailed roadmap of <strong>the</strong> open media plat<strong>for</strong>ms<br />
take place. User participation demands some <strong>for</strong>m<br />
of openness from <strong>the</strong> actors anyway, and Finnish attitudes<br />
are positively inclined towards openness.<br />
However, <strong>the</strong>re is a global level business risk, as international<br />
actors don’t necessarily reciprocate with<br />
Finnish openness. We are still in <strong>the</strong> middle of <strong>the</strong><br />
first generation in this shift.<br />
Open plat<strong>for</strong>m can be a relevant component to<br />
make <strong>the</strong> cultural goal of our vision possible. This<br />
has been successfully applied in games business<br />
where <strong>the</strong> success of many game developers lies<br />
in giving <strong>the</strong> user community enough tools and<br />
flexibility to tailor <strong>the</strong> original products and come<br />
up with derived or totally new ideas. Professional<br />
media production can <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e benefit significantly<br />
from user innovations. This can be observed,<br />
<strong>for</strong> example, in <strong>the</strong> international success<br />
story of Sulake’s Habbo Hotel, where <strong>the</strong> interesting<br />
part of <strong>the</strong> service is user-driven innovation<br />
using simple rooms and virtual furniture as<br />
building blocks <strong>for</strong> new mini-service innovations<br />
inside <strong>the</strong> virtual environment.
There needs to be core actors that are located in<br />
Finland, but we also need to be open to all local<br />
and international actors. In <strong>the</strong> ICT sector at<br />
large, <strong>the</strong>re is already a multitude of companies<br />
that are building <strong>the</strong>ir business on <strong>the</strong> open source<br />
model, but doing integration and services. The<br />
same applies to digital media content.<br />
Open innovation models works particularly well<br />
<strong>for</strong> new media content and services <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> benefit<br />
of <strong>the</strong> public sector. There are many large-scale<br />
ef<strong>for</strong>ts that have <strong>the</strong> goal of creating major assets<br />
of media available. Some of <strong>the</strong>se collaborative<br />
peer produced media products are generated by<br />
active user communities, such as Wikipedia. The<br />
underlying content production plat<strong>for</strong>m, Wiki, is<br />
an open user interface innovation as such.<br />
Open business models can become an integral<br />
part of media company strategy and actions.<br />
However, it must be acknowledged that <strong>the</strong> business<br />
models and benefits of fully open IPR model<br />
are still quite foggy. New models may be needed,<br />
Figure 3.7. Print 2.0 roadmap<br />
and <strong>the</strong> example of dual-licensing from open<br />
source software may also be relevant here.<br />
Print 2.0<br />
Print media is not disappearing, although <strong>for</strong>est<br />
sector is facing important long-term challenges in<br />
keeping <strong>the</strong> position it has today on <strong>the</strong> media<br />
market. There is a need to rethink what paper-based<br />
products are good <strong>for</strong> in <strong>the</strong> future, and<br />
most likely <strong>the</strong>y will develop and to get new features<br />
in <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
In many ways paper is still superior to electronic<br />
equivalents. However, new paper-like displays<br />
are being developed. These are typically called<br />
e-paper displays. Printed electronics make paper<br />
into a possible technical plat<strong>for</strong>m <strong>for</strong> logic circuits<br />
and embedded electronic displays. There<br />
are several competing technology alternatives in<br />
this space. It is still unclear what is <strong>the</strong> role of<br />
Finnish companies will be in this development.<br />
So far this has concentrated on embedded sensors<br />
27
and remote identification of smart fibre-based<br />
packaging using RFID tags. However, <strong>the</strong>re is<br />
still little that indicate that traditional paper companies,<br />
such as UPM, would like to become a significant<br />
manufacturer of ubiquitous paper-like<br />
electronic displays.<br />
ICT & Forest industry: cross-sector<br />
collaboration<br />
Finland has world leading expertise in ICT sector<br />
and <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>est sector, and media and communications<br />
sector overlaps to a large degree with both.<br />
It is of great national importance <strong>for</strong> Finland how<br />
<strong>the</strong>se three sectors could succeed in working<br />
closer toge<strong>the</strong>r to develop new solutions and new<br />
products. However, it can argued that not too<br />
much has been achieved in this industrial<br />
multi-sector collaboration. This is also mirrored<br />
in <strong>the</strong> recently established national strategic<br />
R&D cluster structure (SHOKs), where <strong>the</strong> current<br />
crisp division into “<strong>for</strong>est cluster” and “ICT<br />
cluster” provides little incentives <strong>for</strong> cross-cluster<br />
collaboration.<br />
Most initiatives to do this collaboration concretely<br />
have been based on ideas <strong>for</strong> new technical<br />
innovations, such as functionality that allows<br />
novel combinations of fibre-based products and<br />
electronic media. This has been termed as “hybrid<br />
media”. However, despite several years of<br />
research, this concept has not gained any significant<br />
momentum internationally. So far, only few<br />
new truly hybrid media companies have emerged<br />
in Finland. Rapidly growing area of printed electronics<br />
and novel paper-like displays is not particularly<br />
strong in Finland commercially despite <strong>the</strong><br />
R&D ef<strong>for</strong>t taken.<br />
Combining social digital media with print<br />
The paper products, such as printed newsletters<br />
<strong>for</strong> associations, are still highly valuable and effective<br />
<strong>for</strong>m of social media. What has changed is<br />
that <strong>the</strong>y have become easier to produce due to<br />
expansion of desktop publishing and <strong>the</strong>y can be<br />
more interactive and reflect <strong>the</strong> opinions of <strong>the</strong><br />
28<br />
members better due to increasing use of electronic<br />
media.<br />
When new innovations are considered on <strong>the</strong> web<br />
and <strong>the</strong> Internet, <strong>the</strong> paper is almost always neglected<br />
as a possible media. The problem is that<br />
paper is seen as old and uninteresting technology.<br />
There are also only few web-based tools and services<br />
<strong>for</strong> people to re-invent paper products <strong>the</strong>mselves.<br />
A lesson learned from <strong>the</strong> ICT sector is to be open<br />
and facilitate innovation among <strong>the</strong> end users. To<br />
achieve this <strong>the</strong> pulp and paper industry must take<br />
an active role in enabling regular people to be creative<br />
with paper, especially using digital tools and<br />
online collaboration. New business models <strong>for</strong><br />
small-scale publishing allow <strong>for</strong> different <strong>for</strong>ms<br />
of publishing 13 . The point is that <strong>the</strong> new innovative<br />
uses <strong>for</strong> paper could start from better use digital<br />
tools and online collaboration, which has<br />
been witnessed to work on <strong>the</strong> all-digital media<br />
use, and closer interaction with <strong>the</strong> users and getting<br />
inspiration from <strong>the</strong> everyday changes in<br />
people’s lives.<br />
User-centric print products<br />
Paper industry has traditionally done relatively little<br />
user-centric R&D and could learn from <strong>the</strong><br />
methods now commonplace in ICT, such as such<br />
as human-centric design and user-generated content.<br />
This could help in defining how media use in<br />
everyday life is changing and exploring innovatively<br />
new uses <strong>for</strong> paper.<br />
The pulp and paper business may be interested to<br />
come up with new innovative consumer products<br />
and services. Paper industry should also accept<br />
new design and business perspectives. It may be<br />
useful to compare <strong>the</strong> situation of some hardware<br />
and software giants (Intel, Microsoft, Nokia) and<br />
paper industry. The ICT industry is adapted to understanding<br />
<strong>the</strong> everyday life context of <strong>the</strong>ir new<br />
products and is willing to invest major amounts of<br />
funding to use <strong>the</strong>ir own R&D <strong>for</strong> creation of new<br />
markets <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> IT core products, such as micro-<br />
13 This is nicely demonstrated by an innovative online service called Lulu.com, which has shown that self-publishing of<br />
books can be fun, easy, and af<strong>for</strong>dable.
processors, operating systems and telecommunications<br />
hardware.<br />
It should be <strong>the</strong> role of <strong>the</strong> paper industry to show<br />
both consumers and businesses that paper is often<br />
far superior to digital alternatives. However, <strong>the</strong><br />
situation is changing and <strong>the</strong> pressures to cut<br />
costs to keep in line with <strong>the</strong> sinking markets and<br />
diminishing profits often means that little is left<br />
aside <strong>for</strong> truly novel thinking.<br />
3.5 Conclusions and<br />
recommendations<br />
The key driving <strong>for</strong>ce behind <strong>the</strong> changes in <strong>the</strong><br />
media industry is <strong>the</strong> rapid development of ICT,<br />
which has given users more power to control <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
media use and brought digital media production<br />
and distribution within <strong>the</strong> reach of everyone.<br />
Mobile devices that can be also used <strong>for</strong> instant<br />
capture of reasonably high quality media accelerate<br />
this trend. The challenges are growing, and<br />
<strong>the</strong> importance of this area is rising to a new scale<br />
Why?<br />
Drivers<br />
and<br />
trends<br />
What?<br />
Central<br />
solutions<br />
How?<br />
– skills<br />
– practices<br />
– co-operation<br />
<strong>for</strong> Finland enabling new societal and business<br />
practices and <strong>for</strong>ming a large converging media<br />
cluster.<br />
Figure 3.8 summarizes <strong>the</strong> work at a higher level,<br />
identifying <strong>the</strong> main drivers, solutions and central<br />
actions to reach <strong>the</strong> identified vision and identified<br />
goals. Our proposed vision is largely based<br />
on building excellence in new <strong>for</strong>ms of media<br />
content and services, but many of <strong>the</strong> solutions<br />
and key enablers are less directly media content<br />
related.<br />
The proposed initiatives needed to reach <strong>the</strong><br />
goals are as follows:<br />
Media cluster development: It is important to<br />
recognize that <strong>the</strong> Finnish media cluster<br />
should be tightened, and it should have a stronger<br />
supporting R&D network and international<br />
contacts behind it. Media cluster should be<br />
closely connected to nearby clusters. There are<br />
unique skills in Finland but <strong>the</strong>y are spread too<br />
thin. New ways of functioning and collaboration<br />
are needed, and this necessitates global<br />
Consumers, media and digital convergence<br />
Changing role of user<br />
and bigger consumer<br />
power<br />
User centered media<br />
Understanding of user driven<br />
media development and<br />
business models<br />
Investment in<br />
R&D and education<br />
Print 2.0 Mobile internet<br />
Media cluster<br />
development<br />
Media as enabler in<br />
new societal and<br />
business practices<br />
Rapid development of<br />
ICT technolgy<br />
Learning Wellbeing Culture<br />
Good innovation<br />
environment<br />
Co-operation between<br />
different authorities<br />
and public agencies<br />
Figure 3.8. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach <strong>the</strong> goals<br />
Open media<br />
plat<strong>for</strong>ms<br />
IPR rules enabling<br />
new business<br />
29
30<br />
networks and internationally visible flagship<br />
actors. We have also a good technological level<br />
to start innovating on, but new investments<br />
need to be made in strategically chosen content<br />
and service domains. Our proposal is that<br />
learning, well-being and entertainment hold<br />
<strong>the</strong> biggest promise as areas <strong>for</strong> content and<br />
media services. For example, gaming industry<br />
has been identified as a potential growth sector<br />
in Finland and this is a good start. Finland is<br />
well-positioned in games business due to a<br />
strong mix of programming skills, hacker culture<br />
and digital design. With adequate support<br />
<strong>for</strong> development and access to capital this sector<br />
could develop into <strong>the</strong> cultural powerhouse<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Finnish content industry. Being one of<br />
<strong>the</strong> top five game media countries globally, and<br />
a leader in some of <strong>the</strong> fastest growing sectors<br />
of games and syn<strong>the</strong>tic worlds, should be chosen<br />
as a national goal.<br />
Understanding of user-driven media development<br />
and business models: We need experimental<br />
settings <strong>for</strong> constant experimentation,<br />
and citizens and prospective users should<br />
embrace <strong>the</strong>se national and local initiatives<br />
and participate actively. There are many living<br />
labs initiatives currently being run and prepared,<br />
but it is important that <strong>the</strong>se are truly<br />
reaching <strong>the</strong> everyday lives of people, or ra<strong>the</strong>r<br />
that <strong>the</strong>y are even welcomed as an integral part<br />
of it. One solution is to think of this concept of<br />
living labs from a non-media and IT-centric<br />
viewpoint. There are also some important<br />
user-initiated innovation events and plat<strong>for</strong>ms,<br />
such as <strong>the</strong> “Assembly”-grass roots<br />
level event <strong>for</strong> gamers. The Finnish media<br />
business actors should be leading in <strong>the</strong> world<br />
in promoting open user innovation, and also<br />
understanding its commercial potential and<br />
connected business models. Media is also increasingly<br />
a means <strong>for</strong> self-reflection and pursuing<br />
personal goals. This makes it more understandable,<br />
why so many amateurs are willing<br />
to participate in <strong>the</strong> media production. Finland<br />
should take a leading role in creating<br />
do-it-yourself media tools and plat<strong>for</strong>ms to<br />
fur<strong>the</strong>r fuel this change.<br />
Investment in R&D and education: There is<br />
a need to increase R&D funding in <strong>the</strong> media<br />
cluster. It has typically utilized new technology<br />
only when it has matured long enough, and<br />
“cutting edge” and “permanent beta” are quite<br />
strange modes of operation <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> traditional<br />
media industry, where high reliability and<br />
journalistic integrity are <strong>the</strong> key values.<br />
Change will result from a combination of attitude<br />
shift in established companies towards<br />
R&D, new clusters of start-ups, targeted research<br />
programs and expertise networks, and<br />
better quality universities. There is a need to<br />
significantly improve <strong>the</strong> quality and scope of<br />
interactive digital media research and education<br />
in Finland, and quality has to be at <strong>the</strong> top<br />
international level. We need multi-disciplinary<br />
education from various domains related to <strong>the</strong><br />
media field, and concerns especially <strong>the</strong> humanistic<br />
and societal areas. The journalism education<br />
should be developed, but <strong>the</strong>re should<br />
also be more emphasis on media service innovation<br />
and media management. The new “Innovation<br />
University” can have a key role,<br />
bringing toge<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> viewpoints of technology,<br />
business and human-centered design<br />
skills.<br />
Good innovation environment: New positive<br />
business thinking is required: we need concrete<br />
initiatives to help <strong>for</strong>ming of new businesses<br />
and encouraging risk-taking that is targeted<br />
<strong>for</strong> international success. This necessitates<br />
new initiatives <strong>for</strong> higher education and<br />
venturing. We need to build a culture that tolerates<br />
failure in business ventures. More business<br />
expertise is required. From interesting<br />
and potential areas of content <strong>the</strong>re is too long<br />
way to products, markets and business. This<br />
could be a good challenge <strong>for</strong> SITRA, and <strong>the</strong>y<br />
should be involved more in planning. There<br />
needs to be new types of business connected to<br />
campuses and <strong>the</strong>ir vicinity, where new generations<br />
of media use will be incubated and new<br />
<strong>for</strong>ms of knowledge creation is to flourish. The<br />
sector would benefit from professorships,<br />
which are partly in <strong>the</strong> university and partly in<br />
companies.
IPR rules enabling new business: IPR is central<br />
to media business, but it can act locally ei<strong>the</strong>r<br />
as a hindrance or as an enabler. IPR legislation<br />
needs to be internationally reconsidered,<br />
<strong>for</strong> example to better support open innovation<br />
practices in media. How much would different<br />
IPR rules change things? Legislation regarding<br />
owner and consumer rights to media is also far<br />
from perfect. The unwanted or uncontrolled<br />
usage of <strong>the</strong> P2P file sharing has been <strong>the</strong> reason<br />
<strong>for</strong> fierce opposition from <strong>the</strong> part of <strong>the</strong><br />
content owners. However, to consumers P2P<br />
presents a new relatively easy-to-use channel<br />
to search and find content without leaving<br />
home, and many are neglecting <strong>the</strong> IPR laws<br />
because of this convenience and availability of<br />
media.<br />
Co-operation between different authorities<br />
and funding agencies: We need to make conscious<br />
choices on where to put <strong>the</strong> emphasis,<br />
and government officials should share <strong>the</strong><br />
common vision. New tools and funding structures<br />
might be necessary, and <strong>the</strong> ICT SHOK<br />
could be important <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> future of media.<br />
However, current plans include only a small<br />
fragment that is concentrating on media, and<br />
this will not be large enough. We should also<br />
promote <strong>the</strong> capabilities and new media literacy<br />
of Finnish citizens at large (LVM, OPM).<br />
31
4 Health in aging society<br />
Raimo Sepponen,<br />
Helsinki University of Technology<br />
Panel chairman<br />
Raimo Sepponen,<br />
Helsinki University of Technology<br />
Panel members<br />
Timo Ekroos, ISAK<br />
Jarmo Eskelinen, Forum Virium<br />
Pentti Itkonen,<br />
Ministry of <strong>Social</strong> Affairs and Health<br />
Pekka Kahri, Tekes<br />
Pirkko Karjalainen, Central Union <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Welfare of <strong>the</strong> Aged<br />
Mauno Konttinen,<br />
Stakes – National Research and<br />
Development Centre <strong>for</strong> Welfare and Health<br />
Samuli Saarni,<br />
National Public Health Institute in Finland<br />
Niilo Saranummi, Tekes<br />
Hilkka Tervaskari, Finnish Wellbeing Center Oy<br />
Erkki Vauramo,<br />
Helsinki University of Technology / HEMA<br />
32<br />
4.1 Introduction<br />
Aging of <strong>the</strong> Finnish population<br />
The aging of population is a challenge facing developed<br />
and some developing nations. Finland is<br />
one of <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>erunners in getting old. The challenge<br />
culminates just in <strong>the</strong> period which is targeted<br />
in this <strong>for</strong>esight report (Figure 4.1). During<br />
this <strong>for</strong>esight period <strong>the</strong> number of people living<br />
on a pension is high mostly due to <strong>the</strong> “baby<br />
boom” after <strong>the</strong> Second World War. The size of<br />
<strong>the</strong> aged population compared to <strong>the</strong> size of <strong>the</strong><br />
population of people in active work during <strong>the</strong> period<br />
2025 -2030 will be higher in Finland than in<br />
any o<strong>the</strong>r EU country.<br />
This development will lead to increased spending<br />
on both health and social care. The expected<br />
Figure 4.1. The age distribution of <strong>the</strong> Finnish population in years 1910–2040.<br />
Source: Pekka Parkkinen
1950<br />
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040<br />
Lapset 0–19-vuotiaat<br />
Lähteet: Tilastokeskus (2004) ja Tilastokeskuksen väestötilastot vuodesta 1950 lähtien<br />
length of life in 2050 is predicted to be about 3,5<br />
years longer than today. Hence, <strong>the</strong> oldest age<br />
group will be <strong>the</strong> fastest growing part of <strong>the</strong> population<br />
(Figure 4.2).<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
Työikäiset (20–60-v.)<br />
65–74-vuotiaat<br />
75–84-vuotiaat<br />
85–110-vuotiaat<br />
0<br />
Eläkeläiset 65–110-v.<br />
0<br />
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040<br />
Figure 4.2. The subgroups of <strong>the</strong> aged segment of population 1950–2040.<br />
Source: Pekka Parkkinen<br />
Lähde: Sosiaali- ja terveysministeriöstä (Veli Laine) saatu data<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
The use of health and social care services and<br />
needs of support will increase when a person gets<br />
older (Figure 4.3). There<strong>for</strong>e, <strong>the</strong> aging itself is<br />
not only determinant of <strong>the</strong> increased costs but<br />
also <strong>the</strong> health status of aging population.<br />
0<br />
0<br />
0–4 10–14 20–24 30–34 40–44 50–54 60–64 70–74 70–84 90–94 100–<br />
Figure 4.3a. Average personal health care costs of municipalities in 1000 by age groups.<br />
Source: Pekka Parkkinen<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
33
The increase of mental and physical disabilities is<br />
inevitable as <strong>the</strong> population is aging (Figure 4.4).<br />
There are, however, possibilities still to influence<br />
<strong>the</strong> pace of this process.<br />
During <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight period <strong>the</strong>re are only limited<br />
capabilities to change <strong>the</strong> costs of health care delivery<br />
<strong>for</strong> people with diagnosed chronic illnesses.<br />
There are also limited possibilities to develop new<br />
measures of preventive health care. However, by<br />
utilizing <strong>the</strong> knowledge that already exists, improving<br />
organisation and fully exploiting <strong>the</strong> tech-<br />
34<br />
15 %<br />
10 %<br />
6 %<br />
3 %<br />
1 %<br />
11 %<br />
43 %<br />
8 %<br />
3 %<br />
0 – 6<br />
7 – 16<br />
17 – 19<br />
20 – 64<br />
65 – 74<br />
75 – 84<br />
85 – 89<br />
90 – 94<br />
95 –<br />
Figure 4.3b. The division of health care costs by <strong>the</strong> age groups.<br />
Source: Erkki Vauramo<br />
nology we have, we may be able to avoid <strong>the</strong> resource<br />
crisis that faces us in <strong>the</strong> future. In <strong>the</strong><br />
course of doing so, we may even introduce new<br />
product and service concepts into society.<br />
We need methods and practices to identify individuals<br />
at <strong>the</strong> highest risk <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> major chronic<br />
diseases-a<strong>the</strong>rosclerosis, heart failure, cancer, diabetes,<br />
alcohol-related diseases and neurodegenerative<br />
and psychiatric disorders – those<br />
things that account <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> bulk of heath care expenditures<br />
(Figure 4.5 and 4.6).<br />
Figure 4.4. Disability in different age groups. Source: U.S. Census Bureau<br />
Report on Americans with Disabilities: 1994-95, P70-61 (August 1997)
Figure 4.5. Probability to suffer at some stage of life from cancer.<br />
Source: Cancer Society of Finland<br />
The prevalence of <strong>the</strong> chronic illnesses increases<br />
by age. There will be many individuals<br />
suffering from more than one of <strong>the</strong> above mentioned<br />
pathological conditions and <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e,<br />
require continuous medical care from several<br />
specialists.<br />
The current health care system is nei<strong>the</strong>r flexible<br />
nor well adapted to <strong>the</strong> changing patient profile. It<br />
is divided into different disciplines that seek to<br />
target <strong>the</strong> curing of diseases and injuries. In future<br />
<strong>the</strong>re will be more and more patients with a number<br />
of incurable degenerative diseases, which are<br />
sometimes combined with traumas. The goal of<br />
<strong>the</strong> care may not always be a complete cure of <strong>the</strong><br />
pathology. Instead <strong>the</strong> treatment may be targeting<br />
to make <strong>the</strong> quality of life as high as possible during<br />
<strong>the</strong> remaining few years of life.<br />
35
The field of health care is ra<strong>the</strong>r conservative and<br />
<strong>the</strong> process of implementing changes occurs<br />
slowly. There are responsibilities which must be<br />
redefined and revenues that must be redirected.<br />
Both <strong>the</strong>se issues make <strong>the</strong> system slow to change<br />
without strong initiatives from <strong>the</strong> government.<br />
New models of preventive health care delivery<br />
are needed. Such models should serve <strong>the</strong> dual<br />
goals of improving outcomes while controlling<br />
costs. The quality of <strong>the</strong> services must be defined.<br />
One must establish proper quantitative and qualitative<br />
measures to determine if a specific change<br />
actually leads to <strong>the</strong> desired improvement.<br />
The responsibility of each individual of his or her<br />
health must be emphasized more than has been<br />
done so in <strong>the</strong> past. It has been suggested that <strong>the</strong><br />
poor cost - benefit per<strong>for</strong>mance of USA health care<br />
is partially due to <strong>the</strong> bad lifestyle choices of people.<br />
Low levels of physical activity, combined with a<br />
high caloric and fatty diet are proving to be behind<br />
<strong>the</strong> chronic conditions mentioned above. Being<br />
overweight with increased intra- and extra-abdominal<br />
fat can lead to metabolic disorders and adult<br />
type of diabetes. Many scientifically sound studies<br />
published recently support this.<br />
36<br />
MILJ EUROA<br />
1 800<br />
Kustannusennusteet<br />
1600<br />
eksponentiaalinen ennuste<br />
asiantuntija arvioihin perustuva<br />
1400<br />
regressioennuste<br />
1 200<br />
1 000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
20<strong>08</strong><br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
Figure 4.6. Prediction of <strong>the</strong> cancer related health care costs.<br />
Source: Cancer Society of Finland<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
Policymakers also should focus on ways to reduce<br />
cancer, heart disease and lung disease. Stepped-up<br />
ef<strong>for</strong>ts to reduce tobacco use, control blood pressure,<br />
reduce cholesterol and regulate blood sugar<br />
are required. (Dr. Christopher Murray, head of <strong>the</strong><br />
Institute <strong>for</strong> Health Metrics and Evaluation at <strong>the</strong><br />
University of Washington)<br />
The lifestyle of Finnish population is following<br />
that of <strong>the</strong> USA. The importance of diet, weight<br />
control and proper physical exercise has been<br />
demonstrated in a number of well controlled<br />
studies. The difficult question is how to change<br />
<strong>the</strong> life style of <strong>the</strong> majority of <strong>the</strong> population.<br />
There has been one success story about 30 years<br />
ago: <strong>the</strong> North Karelia project. Today we are in<br />
need of a similar success story – but <strong>the</strong> circumstances<br />
are far more challenging. Finland is not<br />
anymore such a homogenous nation it once was<br />
and <strong>the</strong>re are strong factors, which are opposing<br />
any positive changes in <strong>the</strong> lifestyle of <strong>the</strong> population.<br />
The challenge should be faced by addressing<br />
<strong>the</strong> whole health continuum, which is depicted<br />
in Figure 4.7.
CARE of<br />
ILLNESS<br />
SELF<br />
CARE<br />
Home care &<br />
Independent<br />
living<br />
Active Health<br />
“Worried Well”<br />
Fitness<br />
PRO-<br />
ACTIVE<br />
Development of <strong>the</strong> Finnish economy<br />
The social and health care institutions in Finland are<br />
mainly funded through direct taxation of <strong>the</strong> population.<br />
Even now when <strong>the</strong> relationship between<br />
working population and people living on pension is<br />
favourable <strong>the</strong> taxation level remains high. The<br />
well-being of Finland is also very dependent on <strong>the</strong><br />
volume of exported goods. Because Finnish economy<br />
needs an increasing amount of imported raw<br />
materials and energy, it is necessary also to have<br />
strong exports. In <strong>the</strong> long run, <strong>the</strong> trade balance<br />
should be positive. The world economy is changing<br />
due to globalisation and <strong>the</strong>re will be tough competition<br />
between nations to secure investments. Finland<br />
is a relatively small market and is not such an<br />
attractive target <strong>for</strong> <strong>for</strong>eign investors when compared<br />
to many o<strong>the</strong>r places in both Europe and<br />
Asia. During this <strong>for</strong>esight period, however, <strong>the</strong><br />
Baltic countries and especially Russia are developing<br />
rapidly. Finland seems ra<strong>the</strong>r well positioned<br />
to enter <strong>the</strong>se neighbouring markets. Un<strong>for</strong>tunately,<br />
this potential has not yet been fully realized<br />
and Finland is being left behind both Sweden<br />
and Germany in exploring one of <strong>the</strong> fastest growing<br />
markets in <strong>the</strong> world.<br />
Continuum of health and illness<br />
Ageing Independently<br />
Ambient Assisted Living Disease<br />
Wellness<br />
management<br />
Elevated<br />
risk factors<br />
Figure 4.7. The health continuum concept.<br />
Management<br />
Chronic<br />
disease<br />
Rehabilitation<br />
Acute Care<br />
Acute<br />
illness<br />
(episode)<br />
RE-<br />
ACTIVE<br />
As we are now aware that <strong>the</strong> costs of <strong>the</strong> maintaining<br />
<strong>the</strong> welfare state in Finland will increase<br />
steadily, both productivity and volume of exports<br />
must increase correspondingly. There are at least<br />
two serious threats, which may make <strong>the</strong>se goals<br />
difficult to reach: There will be shortages in <strong>the</strong><br />
labour <strong>for</strong>ce and <strong>the</strong> terms of trade are getting<br />
lower due to <strong>the</strong> increasing costs of energy and<br />
raw materials (Figure 4.8). Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore <strong>the</strong><br />
added value typically associated with Finnish<br />
products is getting lower. It may be noted that <strong>the</strong><br />
terms of trade of Denmark and Sweden have not<br />
decreased since 1995. This indicates that <strong>the</strong> innovation<br />
process and characteristics of industry<br />
in those countries are superior compared those of<br />
Finland.<br />
The export of high technology products was 30 %<br />
from total value of export in year 2000. This share<br />
had fallen to about 25 % by 2005. This development<br />
leads to <strong>the</strong> awkward situation that highly<br />
educated Finland imports expensive products but<br />
only exports low cost products. It is clear that low<br />
cost products will be manufactured in countries<br />
where <strong>the</strong> costs are much lower than in developed<br />
37
EU countries. The competition will seriously affect<br />
<strong>the</strong> volume of <strong>the</strong> Finnish manufacturing industry.<br />
It has been predicted that after five years <strong>the</strong> public<br />
sector will absorb all <strong>the</strong> work <strong>for</strong>ce which<br />
will enter <strong>the</strong> labour market. Of course, this is not<br />
feasible in practice but it is a clear indication of<br />
<strong>the</strong> need of radical changes in <strong>the</strong> production of<br />
services. Hopefully <strong>the</strong> PARAS-re<strong>for</strong>m of municipalities<br />
will produce <strong>the</strong> expected results. The<br />
reduction of <strong>the</strong> total labour <strong>for</strong>ce of Finland will<br />
be about 200 000 during next 25 years. Partly this<br />
reduction may be compensated by better organisation<br />
of work using new methods and techniques.<br />
Finland will also inveigle workers from<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r countries. However, <strong>the</strong>re will be a great<br />
need of new labour <strong>for</strong>ce in neighbouring countries<br />
and not insignificantly in economically rising<br />
Russia.<br />
The current (not explicitly stated) strategy is to<br />
produce more <strong>the</strong> same but with a higher efficiency.<br />
When this factor is combined with <strong>the</strong><br />
drastically shrinking pool of available labour, <strong>the</strong><br />
unhappy outcome is obvious. There is an urgent<br />
need to invigorate <strong>the</strong> birth of new innovative<br />
growth companies.<br />
38<br />
106<br />
104<br />
102<br />
100<br />
98<br />
96<br />
94<br />
92<br />
90<br />
88<br />
86<br />
84<br />
82<br />
80<br />
78<br />
Vientihinnat/tuontihinnat (1995=100)<br />
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
Figure 4.8. Development of terms of trade of Finland. Source: Tilastokeskus<br />
The investments in R&D after <strong>the</strong> IT bubble have<br />
been ra<strong>the</strong>r modest. The major industrial sectors<br />
of Finland are investing inadequate resources in<br />
R&D. (In order to get <strong>the</strong> true picture of <strong>the</strong> situation<br />
<strong>the</strong> R&D investments of Nokia should be<br />
considered separately). The introduction of new<br />
products will take generally more than five years,<br />
often as long as 10 – 15 years. There<strong>for</strong>e, <strong>the</strong> low<br />
level of R&D investments will have a significant<br />
negative impact on <strong>the</strong> economy during this <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
period.<br />
The net investments in Finland are ra<strong>the</strong>r modest<br />
and only partly directed to <strong>the</strong> industry (Figure<br />
4.9). When this is combined with <strong>the</strong> low domestic<br />
investment level, <strong>the</strong> economy is not capable<br />
of supporting any development of Finland’s competitive<br />
export industry. The low investment level<br />
is reflected in <strong>the</strong> decrease in <strong>the</strong> number of<br />
growth companies (Figure 4.10).<br />
The increased growth of <strong>the</strong> service sector has<br />
been noticeably fast and this has also reduced <strong>the</strong><br />
interest to invest in manufacturing industry.<br />
There is a general belief among economists and<br />
business analysts that <strong>the</strong> future industrial products<br />
will be manufactured in countries where <strong>the</strong><br />
labour and raw material costs are lowest. When<br />
this trend is weighted against <strong>the</strong> high level of
Milj. euroa<br />
9 000<br />
8 000<br />
7 000<br />
6 000<br />
5 000<br />
4 000<br />
3 000<br />
2 000<br />
1 000<br />
0<br />
8 549<br />
2 941<br />
taxation and <strong>the</strong> kind of support policy it can be<br />
easily predicted that <strong>the</strong> developed EU countries<br />
and especially Finland will all be losers in this<br />
game. There is, however, still an export growth in<br />
<strong>the</strong> industrial sectors where good design, high<br />
quality and technological ingenuity remain as <strong>the</strong><br />
competitive edge. By investing in research, development<br />
and in <strong>the</strong> innovation process Finland<br />
may partly avoid stagnation destined <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
2 418<br />
3 158<br />
2 059<br />
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006<br />
Figure 4.9. The net investments in Finland. Source: The Bank of Finland<br />
Amount<br />
180<br />
160<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
162<br />
Fast Growing Companies in Finland<br />
89<br />
92<br />
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004<br />
Figure 4.10. Growth companies in Finland. Source: Sorvisto+ Balance Consulting &<br />
Kauppalehti, 2005<br />
85<br />
economy. Un<strong>for</strong>tunately, this has still not been realized<br />
by <strong>the</strong> government and it will take <strong>the</strong> hard<br />
lessons of a severe economical crisis be<strong>for</strong>e<br />
something will really begin to happen to strike at<br />
<strong>the</strong> root causes of <strong>the</strong> problem.<br />
It seems that Finland must take care of <strong>the</strong> aging<br />
population with significantly smaller resources<br />
than has been previously assumed. However,<br />
44<br />
39
<strong>the</strong>re could be an upside to all this doom and<br />
gloom: Due to <strong>the</strong> drastically shrinking resources,<br />
<strong>the</strong> organisations, obliged to provide <strong>the</strong><br />
required services must truly start to innovate.<br />
This will require a quality control and supportive<br />
legislation. Without <strong>the</strong>se measures, <strong>the</strong> quality<br />
of services will be low and <strong>the</strong> living conditions<br />
of <strong>the</strong> poorest segment of old people will be miserable.<br />
4.2 Scenarios <strong>for</strong> 2030<br />
During <strong>the</strong> panel work <strong>the</strong> main drivers <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
scenarios were selected: individualism vs. collectivism<br />
and economic crisis vs. economic growth.<br />
Figure 4.11 shows <strong>the</strong> positioning of <strong>the</strong> scenarios.<br />
The positions are based on <strong>the</strong> conclusions of<br />
<strong>the</strong> panel discussions.<br />
The development of economy and <strong>the</strong> values of<br />
<strong>the</strong> society are major characteristics to <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>tical<br />
scenarios. The drivers are strongly coupled,<br />
in this respect <strong>the</strong> orthogonal presentation<br />
may be misleading. The development of <strong>the</strong><br />
economy affects <strong>the</strong> behaviour of people who are<br />
part of it. A robust economy may lead toward individualism,<br />
while a poor economical environment<br />
may trigger a spirit of individualism which<br />
40<br />
Individualism<br />
Collectivism<br />
borders on anarchy. It was assumed <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> discussions<br />
that <strong>the</strong> political and environmental development<br />
occurs without any substantial crisis<br />
or o<strong>the</strong>r un<strong>for</strong>eseen dramatic changes.<br />
Scenario 1<br />
It may be assumed that <strong>the</strong>re are severe environmental<br />
problems in many Asian countries due to<br />
<strong>the</strong> uncontrolled exploitation and pollution of <strong>the</strong><br />
natural environment. These countries are no longer<br />
attractive <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> high tech industry. The slowdown<br />
of <strong>the</strong> economy has brought up some political<br />
problems.<br />
Globalisation and immigration are visible also in<br />
<strong>the</strong> devaluation of nationalism. The industry of<br />
EU is protected against competition from countries<br />
with low labour, social and environmental<br />
costs by a strong wall of directives.<br />
The development of economy has been positive,<br />
and <strong>the</strong>re is enough money to support an adequate<br />
level of social and health care. In addition a relatively<br />
large number of aged people are capable of<br />
buying additional services. There is a significant<br />
difference in both <strong>the</strong> quality and quantity of services<br />
<strong>for</strong> a wealthy population compared to what<br />
Scenario 1<br />
Economical crisis Economical growth<br />
Scenario 2<br />
Figure 4.11. Positioning of <strong>the</strong> selected Scenarios.
is available in practice <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> majority of aged<br />
people. The polarisation of <strong>the</strong> society is significant<br />
and fur<strong>the</strong>r increasing. There are also a relatively<br />
large number of elderly people from Asian<br />
countries and from Russia living in Finland. This<br />
is because <strong>the</strong>re is a good political stability. Finland<br />
is a safe living environment and <strong>the</strong> nature<br />
remains relatively unpolluted. The differences<br />
between regions of Finland are steadily growing.<br />
As <strong>the</strong> laws of economy seem to determine <strong>the</strong><br />
development of society, confidence in <strong>the</strong> political<br />
system is decreasing.<br />
International companies provide <strong>the</strong> majority of<br />
<strong>the</strong> services. However, <strong>the</strong>re are a number of<br />
smaller companies targeting focused customer<br />
groups. Migrant workers are a significant part of<br />
labour <strong>for</strong>ce in <strong>the</strong> social and health care sectors.<br />
The quality of services is high due to <strong>the</strong> competition.<br />
There is also a strong legislation to en<strong>for</strong>ce<br />
<strong>the</strong> high quality of services. Independence is considered<br />
vital <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> quality of life.<br />
There are plenty of opportunities <strong>for</strong> elderly people<br />
to have a full or part time work. Many are actually<br />
continuing <strong>the</strong>ir career several years after<br />
<strong>the</strong> official retirement age. This fur<strong>the</strong>r enhances<br />
<strong>the</strong> Finnish economy.<br />
People are trying to remain living in <strong>the</strong>ir own<br />
homes as long as <strong>the</strong>y possibly can. This is partly<br />
a result of <strong>the</strong> excessively high costs of institutional<br />
care and partly because <strong>the</strong>re are proper<br />
services available. The fear of security threats, ei<strong>the</strong>r<br />
true or imagined, makes homes as protected<br />
zones from <strong>the</strong> outside world. The need <strong>for</strong> a social<br />
life stimulates a generation of various ad-hoc<br />
social groups and brea<strong>the</strong>s new life into various<br />
interest groups.<br />
Finland has successfully exploited <strong>the</strong> rise of<br />
both Russia and Baltic countries. Wealthy St. Petersburg<br />
region is a strong market <strong>for</strong> Finnish<br />
products and services. There is a large active Russian<br />
population, which are living shorter or longer<br />
periods in Finland. A good infrastructure of<br />
broad-band communication and fast train connections<br />
between cities including St. Petersburg<br />
allow people to be working nearly everywhere.<br />
This reduces <strong>the</strong> problems related to <strong>the</strong> reduction<br />
of <strong>the</strong> labour <strong>for</strong>ce and <strong>the</strong> society can successfully<br />
respond to <strong>the</strong> challenge of <strong>the</strong> aging<br />
population.<br />
Scenario 2<br />
A serious crisis of economy will reduce <strong>the</strong> funding<br />
available <strong>for</strong> social and health care. Only a<br />
small group of wealthy people are capable to buy<br />
services and <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e <strong>the</strong>re are not a large number<br />
of service providers. Municipal services are<br />
barely adequate. Some variations of <strong>the</strong> almshouse<br />
concept are adopted. The prioritisation is<br />
strong. There<strong>for</strong>e people try to cope by <strong>the</strong>mselves<br />
or by getting some support from neighbours<br />
and relatives. Some type of co-operative organisations<br />
will be introduced. Old and young<br />
people are living toge<strong>the</strong>r to facilitate <strong>the</strong> possibility<br />
to provide <strong>the</strong> necessary help and care. People<br />
have returned to <strong>the</strong> barter economy to support<br />
daily living. Individualism is slowly replaced<br />
with collectivism. The feeling of isolation<br />
and loneliness will <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e be a smaller problem<br />
than in <strong>the</strong> Scenario 1.<br />
Many must work after <strong>the</strong> official retirement age.<br />
Usually <strong>the</strong> work will be done in <strong>the</strong> grey labour<br />
market. Because people will have less money<br />
<strong>the</strong>y will eat less and maybe healthier food. People<br />
will do more physical work. This may reduce<br />
<strong>the</strong> risks of degenerative diseases like diabetes,<br />
a<strong>the</strong>rosclerosis and dementia. The consumption<br />
of drugs will be reduced and people try to cope<br />
with minor health problems by <strong>the</strong>mselves.<br />
Internet health services will be popular. Distributed<br />
diagnosis and home healthcare (D2H2) will<br />
be introduced by several international companies.<br />
Some low cost instrumentation will be used<br />
at homes and low grade health centres. The life<br />
quality of <strong>the</strong> major part of aged people is not<br />
very high. Support networks of relatives and<br />
friends will be necessary.<br />
41
The challenges and opportunities of<br />
<strong>the</strong> Scenario 1<br />
The life style in <strong>the</strong> society of <strong>the</strong> Scenario 1 is<br />
quite dynamic. Small and middle sized enterprises<br />
provide services, which are tailored to <strong>the</strong><br />
needs of <strong>the</strong>ir customers. Because <strong>the</strong> prices of<br />
energy and raw materials are high and getting<br />
even higher, <strong>the</strong> products are well designed and<br />
durable. It may be that <strong>the</strong> present shopping malls<br />
are replaced with local virtual shops. Selected<br />
products are delivered directly to homes. This development<br />
has actually been started. Online web<br />
based shops have been taking a greater share of<br />
<strong>the</strong> market away from speciality shops selling<br />
home appliances and electronics. Even drugs are<br />
delivered through mail after a prescription has<br />
been provided. The pressures of international<br />
competition will drive down <strong>the</strong> prices of<br />
pharmaceuticals and <strong>the</strong> Finnish pharmacy concept<br />
may disappear altoge<strong>the</strong>r.<br />
The opportunity <strong>for</strong> Finnish companies is to establish<br />
a lean chain of logistics to deliver products<br />
to customers in Finland and, <strong>for</strong> example, in Russia.<br />
The delivery of daily consumer goods will be<br />
important especially <strong>for</strong> aged people.<br />
The level of immigration has been strong and <strong>the</strong><br />
Finnish society has moved towards a multicultural<br />
and multilingual society, where <strong>the</strong> values<br />
might not been same <strong>for</strong> all. This will generate <strong>the</strong><br />
need to learn o<strong>the</strong>r languages in addition to Finnish,<br />
Swedish and English. The Russian language<br />
will be more and more important.<br />
Because <strong>the</strong>re is an increase of heterogeneity in <strong>the</strong><br />
society <strong>the</strong>re will be an increasing need to improve<br />
security or feeling of security. There<strong>for</strong>e new sophisticated<br />
methods to monitor environment and<br />
personal well being will be introduced. The services<br />
in this field will be delivered by private companies<br />
except in case of major emergencies when<br />
public services will take <strong>the</strong> responsibility.<br />
The need <strong>for</strong> physical and mental activation will<br />
lead to a development of new social interactions,<br />
which are ei<strong>the</strong>r web-based and/or involving dedicated<br />
technology.<br />
42<br />
People will be more and more conscious about<br />
<strong>the</strong> value of pollution free environment. Natural<br />
and health food will gain more and more popularity.<br />
People are willing to pay ra<strong>the</strong>r well if <strong>the</strong>y<br />
are assured that <strong>the</strong> food is produced without pesticides<br />
and even without genetic manipulation.<br />
This is despite that fact that genetic manipulation<br />
has been shown on occasions to be an effective<br />
way of combating pests.<br />
In cities people are using compact cars with low<br />
fuel consumption. Hybrid motors will replace<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r motor types. Because travelling will be<br />
more and more expensive local adventure and<br />
amusement services will be more and more popular.<br />
High definition digital 3D- movie <strong>the</strong>atres<br />
with kinetic auditoriums will offer experiences<br />
which are comparable to true adventures.<br />
Health care processes are changing fast from conventional<br />
institution and discipline centred organisations<br />
towards distributed service organisations.<br />
A long term contact to a personal doctor or nurse<br />
will be <strong>the</strong> key to more sophisticated services. It<br />
will be more and more common to buy some extra<br />
insurance to safeguard against cases of personal<br />
catastrophe. For example, private cancer hospitals<br />
may sell guaranteed care at defined level against<br />
an annual fee. This fee is increasing progressively<br />
as <strong>the</strong> customer gets older.<br />
The challenges and opportunities of<br />
<strong>the</strong> Scenario 2<br />
The Scenario 2 is full of challenges. There is a<br />
lack of money to provide <strong>the</strong> services. In addition<br />
<strong>the</strong>re is not a proper work <strong>for</strong>ce available to be<br />
hired by social and health care organisations.<br />
There are only a few private companies to offer<br />
high level services <strong>for</strong> elderly. There<strong>for</strong>e families<br />
and relatives are <strong>for</strong>ming co-operative organisations<br />
to take care those who need care and help.<br />
There will be some large groups offering <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
services based on an exchange or barter economy.<br />
The communication inside <strong>the</strong> group will take<br />
place through Internet. The important issue is that<br />
money is not moved. In this way taxation is<br />
avoided and also a generation of extra income is
lost, which could reduce social security benefits.<br />
Because <strong>the</strong> national economy is suffering from<br />
chronic stagnation <strong>the</strong> unemployment rate is high<br />
and <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e <strong>the</strong>se service networks are operating<br />
quite effectively.<br />
Some technological advances are taken into<br />
widespread use. Cars with very small fuel consumption<br />
are popular. Hybrid motors are too expensive<br />
but advances in diesel engines make it<br />
possible to produce environment friendly cars at<br />
much lower costs. These are manufacture in large<br />
numbers in China and India.<br />
Institutional care is squeezed to a minimum volume.<br />
There are available low cost self test diagnostic<br />
kits based on biochips. Internet based MD<br />
services and pharmacy business are blooming.<br />
There are Internet sites giving guidance how to<br />
care minor and even some ra<strong>the</strong>r major health<br />
problems. It may be that <strong>the</strong>se sites give some<br />
hints how to per<strong>for</strong>m euthanasia, <strong>for</strong> example, by<br />
using helium gas, which is mainly used to fill balloons.<br />
Despite <strong>the</strong> depressing environment, <strong>the</strong> increasing<br />
social life makes life seem ra<strong>the</strong>r good. The<br />
number of practical and sensible inventions is increasing.<br />
People are finding again <strong>the</strong> fundamen-<br />
Horror<br />
Scenario<br />
Economical crisis<br />
Scenario 2<br />
Individualism<br />
Collectivism<br />
tal values of living. However, <strong>the</strong> consumption of<br />
alcohol and prevalence of related diseases is constantly<br />
increasing. Due to <strong>the</strong> problems in <strong>the</strong> society<br />
violence will be a significant cause of death<br />
<strong>for</strong> aged people.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r scenarios<br />
The previously discussed two scenarios are not<br />
<strong>the</strong> only alternatives. If <strong>the</strong> development of <strong>the</strong><br />
society goes towards individualism or ra<strong>the</strong>r egoism<br />
and <strong>the</strong> economic crisis is deep, <strong>the</strong>n we<br />
reach <strong>the</strong> worst scenario: <strong>the</strong> Horror Scenario. On<br />
<strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, if we make right decisions and <strong>the</strong><br />
development in o<strong>the</strong>r parts of <strong>the</strong> world is favourable,<br />
<strong>the</strong>n we reach <strong>the</strong> positive scenario:<br />
“Finnworld”. The positioning of <strong>the</strong>se two scenarios<br />
is shown below in Figure 4.12.<br />
Costs of health care increase fast. For example<br />
<strong>the</strong> diagnosis of cancer becomes more and more<br />
accurate but assumes a use of costly imaging<br />
studies with specific markers. The use of positron<br />
emission tomography combined with X-ray CT<br />
and MRI has demonstrated to be very sensitive<br />
and to have a high specificity. When <strong>the</strong> cancer is<br />
detected <strong>the</strong> effective tailored treatment is very<br />
costly. It is obvious that <strong>the</strong> society must make<br />
Scenario 1<br />
Economical growth<br />
“Finnworld”<br />
Figure 4.12. Positioning of <strong>the</strong> Horror scenario and <strong>the</strong> positive<br />
“Finnworld” scenario.<br />
43
decision who will and who will not receive <strong>the</strong> diagnosis<br />
and treatment. Will people over 70 be eligible<br />
to receive this type treatment or will <strong>the</strong>y receive<br />
only palliative treatment?<br />
If <strong>the</strong> development of economy is weaker than expected<br />
and <strong>the</strong> society will be more divided in two<br />
main groups, <strong>the</strong> rich and <strong>the</strong> poor, people will be<br />
more egoistic. The characteristics of <strong>the</strong> society<br />
will correspond to those of <strong>the</strong> Horror Scenario.<br />
In this scenario <strong>the</strong> Finnish society loses young,<br />
educated people to o<strong>the</strong>r countries and <strong>the</strong> declining<br />
economy can only very poorly support <strong>the</strong> aging<br />
population.<br />
The “Finnworld” scenario assumes that many developments<br />
which are going on now have been<br />
changed. Despite <strong>the</strong> inevitable increase of costs<br />
of work, energy and raw materials Finland has<br />
made strong investments in research and development.<br />
The trade with rising neighbouring<br />
countries is growing fast and <strong>the</strong>re is a strong collaboration<br />
in technological development. The<br />
public and private organisations have a good cooperation<br />
in providing services. The income dif-<br />
44<br />
ferences are reasonable but still motivate people<br />
to work. The indicators of <strong>the</strong> operations of <strong>the</strong><br />
society are qualitative and not just quantitative.<br />
This enables <strong>the</strong> public sector to buy services in a<br />
cost effective manner without compromising<br />
quality. Immigration has been strong enough to<br />
provide <strong>the</strong> necessary labour <strong>for</strong>ce. Finland is<br />
known to exploit technological advances in cost<br />
effective way producing high quality services.<br />
For a product or service to be successful, <strong>the</strong><br />
added value must be demonstrated to many interest<br />
groups as well as to <strong>the</strong> target customer (Figure<br />
4.13). Accordingly well controlled field studies<br />
are to be conducted in Finland and in <strong>the</strong> major<br />
export countries. For companies with a good reputation<br />
it is easy to find opinion leaders and get<br />
<strong>the</strong>m to speak in favour of <strong>the</strong> products. The necessary<br />
resources are available also <strong>for</strong> smaller<br />
companies because new funding sources have<br />
been established to support this type of ef<strong>for</strong>ts.<br />
The Finnish system <strong>for</strong> social and health care are<br />
copied in several countries and this enables Finnish<br />
companies to market <strong>the</strong>ir products and services<br />
worldwide.<br />
Figure 4.13. The many faces of <strong>the</strong> customer. The added value <strong>for</strong><br />
each interest group must be demonstrated in <strong>the</strong> pilot studies.
4.3 Vision <strong>for</strong> 2030<br />
The vision <strong>for</strong> 2030 is described in <strong>the</strong> following<br />
statements:<br />
There are internationally successful niche<br />
based businesses which exploit effectively <strong>the</strong><br />
concept of a health continuum<br />
Health continuum concept is exploited optimally<br />
giving a high additional value to <strong>the</strong> society<br />
The Finnish models <strong>for</strong> providing care to <strong>the</strong><br />
aging population have been successfully converted<br />
to products and services which are used<br />
worldwide<br />
The selected ways to operate are true win-win<br />
solutions that benefit all parties of social and<br />
health care<br />
The technological advances are fully exploited to<br />
reduce <strong>the</strong> amount of routine work in health and<br />
social care. The level of safety and human touch<br />
make Finland an attractive country <strong>for</strong> people to<br />
settle in. People from different countries are coming<br />
to spend shorter or longer periods and enjoy<br />
Support <strong>for</strong> new<br />
practices<br />
Solutions<br />
Base<br />
The Finnish society has made true strategic<br />
decisions and corresponding operations.<br />
A number of win-win opportunities have<br />
been created <strong>for</strong> private and public sectors<br />
A commonly accepted vision<br />
has been created and a<br />
national well being strategy<br />
with corresponding resource<br />
allocation has been introduced<br />
<strong>the</strong> high quality of services. The production of<br />
health is <strong>the</strong> focus of both private and public organisations.<br />
The unspoiled nature enables Finland<br />
to produce health food products, which are<br />
exported worldwide.<br />
The development of new technology takes place<br />
in pilot environments to ensure that <strong>the</strong> customer<br />
requirements are taken into account already at <strong>the</strong><br />
beginning of a development project. The goals<br />
and vision are shown in Figure 4.14.<br />
The Finnish technology <strong>for</strong> health care is focused<br />
on sophisticated IT- and material solutions. With<br />
<strong>the</strong>se products and services an aged person may<br />
manage <strong>the</strong>ir own daily life. The number of people<br />
in institutional care is ra<strong>the</strong>r small. These places<br />
are replaced with senior houses with customer<br />
specific enhanced care. The homes include already<br />
considerable amount of invisible technology<br />
to support daily life and <strong>the</strong> systems may be<br />
adapted according to <strong>the</strong> needs of <strong>the</strong> customer.<br />
The advanced measurement systems may monitor<br />
some important parameters of <strong>the</strong> human body and<br />
Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare <strong>for</strong> aging society<br />
– Vision and goals<br />
New cost and<br />
resource/effective<br />
solutions are needed<br />
The Finnish services, products and<br />
practices are successfully turned into<br />
products, which are successful around<br />
<strong>the</strong> world.<br />
Lack of proper labor<br />
<strong>for</strong>ce<br />
Economic crisis or<br />
change in values<br />
International issue of aging<br />
population<br />
Health continuum – The<br />
Finnish social and health care<br />
is based on synergistic approach<br />
to improve <strong>the</strong> quality of life<br />
with optimal use of resources.<br />
The continuous<br />
development work is<br />
introducing internationally<br />
niche business concepts.<br />
Time 2030<br />
Figure 4.14. Vision and goals of health in aging society<br />
45
give indication of future or immediate needs of<br />
help. The goal is to prevent accidents, <strong>for</strong> example,<br />
falls and adjust <strong>the</strong> medical treatment <strong>for</strong> maximal<br />
benefit. The transducers are contactless and <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e<br />
are not any burden to <strong>the</strong> user.<br />
Robot technology is by 2030 used in many places<br />
to help people in such routine operations as cleaning<br />
and <strong>the</strong> preparation of meals. Robots may<br />
also function as a communication device if an accident<br />
is detected. They can also survey <strong>the</strong> environment<br />
and in that way increase safety. This<br />
technology will also find a large market in those<br />
countries where <strong>the</strong> environment is not so safe.<br />
Logistics <strong>for</strong> delivery of <strong>the</strong> food and o<strong>the</strong>r goods<br />
is operating effectively and is actually decreasing<br />
<strong>the</strong> costs of life. There are only a few large shopping<br />
malls. These serve also as some places <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> social life of people.<br />
Immigration has enhanced <strong>the</strong> culture life and <strong>the</strong><br />
high definition television system makes it possible<br />
to enjoy events such as <strong>the</strong>atre shows, concerts and<br />
operas from <strong>the</strong> com<strong>for</strong>t of a person’s home.<br />
It is important that new solutions <strong>for</strong> social and<br />
health care are implemented in practice. Novel<br />
types of alarm systems are necessary. The current<br />
mobile alarm units which require active operation<br />
from <strong>the</strong> user will be replaced by ubiquitous sensors.<br />
These are supported with sophisticated software<br />
packages to analyze <strong>the</strong> conditions observed.<br />
The necessary functions are automated so <strong>the</strong>y do<br />
not need any active participation from <strong>the</strong> users.<br />
Video monitoring will be used only in special<br />
cases. People are ra<strong>the</strong>r sensitive to <strong>the</strong> privacy issues.<br />
Video calls through Internet will, however,<br />
be used extensively. The system may open a<br />
video call automatically if an alarm situation is<br />
detected,<br />
Different types of fall detectors will be important,<br />
but even more important will be detectors <strong>for</strong> a<br />
tendency to fall. In a Finnish study, published recently<br />
in <strong>the</strong> British Medical Journal concluded<br />
that <strong>the</strong> prevention of falls is more cost effective<br />
than treatment of osteoporosis with current medication.<br />
46<br />
Special protective garments will be available. Sophisticated<br />
hip protectors are needed. This requires<br />
considerable product development because<br />
<strong>the</strong> present day protectors are clumsy and<br />
inconvenient to put on and use.<br />
Movement detectors and e.g. bed detectors to<br />
monitor <strong>the</strong> activity of a person will be common.<br />
The detectors may send an alarm if a person<br />
leaves <strong>the</strong> bed during night time. It may also be<br />
used to turn on and off lights. Movement detectors<br />
may guard doorways. The monitoring of<br />
more extreme cases of dementia will require <strong>the</strong><br />
use of a greater number of <strong>the</strong>se types of sensors.<br />
These systems may also be used <strong>for</strong> burglar<br />
alarms.<br />
Special smoke, fire and cooker alarms will be integrated<br />
in home appliances.<br />
Many of <strong>the</strong>se features are already integrated in<br />
new “smart” homes. These are not intended<br />
solely <strong>for</strong> elderly people. Because <strong>the</strong>ir functions<br />
are easy to change, <strong>the</strong>y may be fitted to <strong>the</strong> needs<br />
of <strong>the</strong> customers.<br />
The assistive technology may be retrofitted to individually<br />
tailored homes. The unobtrusive sensors<br />
collect lifestyle pattern data. This data may<br />
be used to evaluate <strong>the</strong> health status of <strong>the</strong> customer.<br />
Additionally it provides <strong>the</strong> <strong>basis</strong> of smart<br />
control and alarm system. The conclusions of a<br />
study made in EU related to <strong>the</strong> future adoption of<br />
different technologies are shown in Figure 4.15.<br />
There are people who may not welcome <strong>the</strong> technological<br />
advances. The privacy and human<br />
touch issues are important. Partially <strong>the</strong>se problems<br />
may be solved with a good product design.<br />
There is an encouraging history of Finnish design<br />
so this may be an important strength of <strong>the</strong> Finnish<br />
industry. It should be noted that <strong>the</strong> design<br />
should not indicate <strong>the</strong> weaknesses of <strong>the</strong> user.<br />
Additionally <strong>the</strong> operation of <strong>the</strong> systems should<br />
be intuitive and not add any load on <strong>the</strong> memory<br />
and cognitive capabilities of <strong>the</strong> users. The systems<br />
must also tolerate some misuse and adapt to<br />
<strong>the</strong> capabilities of <strong>the</strong> user. These kind of adaptive<br />
systems reduce considerably <strong>the</strong> workload of service<br />
organisations.
0<br />
One important problem is how to keep a proper<br />
level of hygiene in <strong>the</strong> living environment and <strong>the</strong><br />
person already slightly demented and/or suffering<br />
from some physical incapability. The cleaning<br />
of homes and washing of people requires a<br />
large amount of physical work. A proper design<br />
of bathrooms is important. Standard bathtubs are<br />
generally not usable without additional features.<br />
Showers are suitable <strong>for</strong> people who are capable<br />
to move by <strong>the</strong>mselves but when additional help<br />
is needed <strong>the</strong>se are no longer practical.<br />
Routine cleaning at homes may be partially done<br />
with robots. Air cleaners reduce amounts of dust<br />
and even microbes and <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e, reduce also<br />
some cleaning work. In any case, <strong>the</strong> problems<br />
related to hygiene are still unsolved and innovative<br />
solutions are urgently needed.<br />
Even though <strong>the</strong> amount of work<strong>for</strong>ce is decreasing<br />
<strong>the</strong> need of human contact will never<br />
decrease. There is only a limited capability of<br />
technological solutions to help in this respect.<br />
The ef<strong>for</strong>ts should be invested in a reduction of<br />
routine bureaucratic and physical work in order<br />
to free vital resources to provide a proper level of<br />
personal care.<br />
Home care decision makers’ opinion on future trends in care sector<br />
% of decision makers stating “likely to be common within five to ten years”<br />
(weighted according to market share)<br />
46<br />
46<br />
49<br />
64<br />
74<br />
78<br />
93<br />
20 40 60 80 100<br />
Older people contact healthcare<br />
provider via picture-based services<br />
Passive alarm sestems in <strong>the</strong> clients<br />
home will automatically alert <strong>the</strong> care provider<br />
Vital sata of client will be remotely<br />
monitoret<br />
Mobile staff transmit data on <strong>the</strong> spot with<br />
portable computer<br />
Shared electronis care records will become<br />
accessible by authorised parties<br />
People in need of care will be members<br />
of on-line self groups<br />
Internet will be an important means of<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation on health an care issues<br />
© SeniorWatch<br />
Figure 4.15. Conclusions regarding to <strong>the</strong> future adoption of technologies in health care.<br />
Source: Seniorwatch<br />
4.4 Roadmap<br />
The use of technology in health and social care in<br />
Finland is not as effective as it should be. ICT has<br />
increased <strong>the</strong> productivity in industry and in<br />
some services like banking considerably. Regrettably,<br />
this has not been happening in public services.<br />
There are many projects going on and a<br />
considerable amount of money and ef<strong>for</strong>t has<br />
been invested in poorly managed operations.<br />
The poor organisation and tight budget of <strong>the</strong><br />
public social and health care sectors do not permit<br />
well managed pilot studies. Even project based<br />
extra funding does not help because <strong>the</strong>re are not<br />
people capable of investing sufficient time and ef<strong>for</strong>t<br />
in piloting. In addition to this, practical tests<br />
of a new radical idea also assume changes in <strong>the</strong><br />
practises of <strong>the</strong> organisation. This requires some<br />
extra resources available within <strong>the</strong> organisation.<br />
It is well known that <strong>the</strong>se resources do not exist.<br />
The silent (tacit) in<strong>for</strong>mation of <strong>the</strong> organisation<br />
cannot be extracted and apply in <strong>the</strong> improvements<br />
of <strong>the</strong> ideas and new products. The results<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Delphi questionnaire indicated that <strong>the</strong> specialists<br />
rate Finland to be at <strong>the</strong> average level in<br />
use of <strong>the</strong> advanced technology and at <strong>the</strong> level of<br />
47
health services. This is because <strong>the</strong>re are not<br />
proper resources, motivation and management to<br />
adopt new practices and products.<br />
Be<strong>for</strong>e any significant progress can be expected<br />
<strong>the</strong> present situation must be analysed.<br />
The obvious weaknesses must be openly recognised<br />
and <strong>the</strong> necessary strategic choices must<br />
be made. An understanding of <strong>the</strong> operation of<br />
<strong>the</strong> health care system is still at a very low level.<br />
Now <strong>the</strong> change due to <strong>the</strong> aging will take place<br />
within <strong>the</strong> next 10 years. That is fast compared<br />
to <strong>the</strong> time constants involved in <strong>the</strong> system.<br />
The institutional public health care will react<br />
slowly so <strong>the</strong> fastest and probably <strong>the</strong> most cost<br />
effective operations can be made outside <strong>the</strong> institutions.<br />
The health continuum concept includes<br />
<strong>the</strong> tight relationship between <strong>the</strong> operations<br />
to support a healthy life style and <strong>the</strong> costs<br />
of institutional health care. The institutional care<br />
will be replaced by home care and special senior<br />
housing with tailored services. This trend is visible<br />
<strong>for</strong> example in <strong>the</strong> USA as shown in Figure<br />
4.16.<br />
Preventive operations will be more and more important.<br />
This situation generates some good business<br />
opportunities: Health food manufacturers,<br />
48<br />
fitness clubs, home care monitors, ubiquitous<br />
systems, peer group organizers and various<br />
co-operatives may find new concepts which may<br />
be marketed internationally.<br />
One important pioneer enterprise is already going<br />
on in Finland. This is <strong>the</strong> senior house “Loppukiri”,<br />
where <strong>the</strong> inhabitants by <strong>the</strong>mselves take<br />
care of all <strong>the</strong> necessary daily tasks. The workload<br />
is divided according to <strong>the</strong> ability of each individual.<br />
Help from outsiders is used only in such<br />
tasks which exceeds <strong>the</strong> capabilities of <strong>the</strong> inhabitants.<br />
The funding of <strong>the</strong> research and development<br />
projects should depend on how well <strong>the</strong>y can<br />
expect to support <strong>the</strong> health continuum concept.<br />
The scientific <strong>basis</strong> of projects should be<br />
sound and <strong>the</strong> research is more related on implementation<br />
and demonstration of cost effectiveness.<br />
The problem has been recognised and some operations<br />
have already been started. One new approach<br />
which has been raised some positive expectations<br />
is <strong>the</strong> initiative to collect strategic<br />
groups around selected segments of <strong>the</strong> Finnish<br />
industry. The concept is still vague and <strong>the</strong> coop-<br />
Figure 4.16. Development in Washington, USA. State-supported nursing home beds<br />
have not kept pace with <strong>the</strong> growth of <strong>the</strong> population aged 85 and above. However,<br />
increasingly <strong>the</strong> elderly population is being served by in-home and community-based<br />
programs. Source: Access Washington
Figure 4.17. The roadmap <strong>for</strong> preparation <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> challenges of <strong>the</strong> aging society<br />
eration between <strong>the</strong> groups is not well managed.<br />
The worst case scenario is that a new organisation<br />
level has been created to fur<strong>the</strong>r make <strong>the</strong><br />
funding of research and development more fragmented<br />
and uncoordinated. There is an unchallenged<br />
belief in <strong>the</strong> ability of named organizations<br />
and committees to create new innovations<br />
from nothing. How we can get rid of this devastating<br />
belief of <strong>the</strong> superior capabilities of organisations?<br />
The funding of R&D must be increased<br />
considerably and it should be addressing<br />
new ideas which change <strong>the</strong> established<br />
ways of operating. The present way to support<br />
<strong>the</strong> projects only if <strong>the</strong>y are accepted by <strong>the</strong> established<br />
companies will not lead to <strong>the</strong> positive<br />
goal that is desired.<br />
There are some necessary operations to be<br />
made to respond to <strong>the</strong> future challenges. These<br />
are summarized as a roadmap shown in Figure<br />
4.17.<br />
4.5 Conclusions<br />
Finland has a risk to fall into both an economical<br />
as well as a demographical trap. The current innovation<br />
mechanisms are ineffective and clumsy.<br />
The population is aging rapidly and <strong>the</strong> leaders<br />
hesitate. The situation demands that real actions<br />
are started immediately. O<strong>the</strong>rwise <strong>the</strong> future capability<br />
to take care <strong>for</strong> aged people and to prosper<br />
from a health economy will no longer exist in<br />
Finland’s bleak future.<br />
The health continuum should be adopted – <strong>the</strong><br />
operations of preventive health care are fast to<br />
take into practice and very cost effective.<br />
The present status of <strong>the</strong> situation must be analyzed<br />
and <strong>the</strong> decisions should be made to turn<br />
<strong>the</strong> recognized threats into opportunities. An<br />
overarching plan to exploit <strong>the</strong> opportunities<br />
must be made.<br />
49
The funding of research and development must<br />
be increased and targeted to development of solutions<br />
to <strong>the</strong>se impending problems. The public<br />
organisations must have resources to pilot <strong>the</strong>se<br />
new solutions and <strong>the</strong> employees should have<br />
strong motivation to contribute <strong>the</strong> development.<br />
The health and social care sector has <strong>the</strong> potential<br />
to be one of <strong>the</strong> future growth businesses of Finnish<br />
service and manufacturing industry. The<br />
products integrate IT, design and application<br />
knowledge. The necessary components already<br />
exist <strong>for</strong> Finland’s future greatness – we should<br />
not strangle creativity in its infancy by putting it<br />
in a straitjacket.<br />
50<br />
References<br />
Pekka Parkkinen: Väestön ikääntymisen vaikutukset<br />
kuntatalouteen, VATT tutkimuksia 136, 20<strong>08</strong><br />
Suvi Mäklin, Pekka Rissanen:Syöpien aiheuttamat<br />
kustannukset, Suomen syöpäjärjestöjen julkaisuja<br />
no. 67, 2006<br />
Eero Pukkala, Risto Sankila, Matti Rautalahti: Syöpä<br />
Suomessa 2006, Suomen Syöpäyhdistysten jukaisuja<br />
no. 71, 2006
5 Towards energy and material efficient society<br />
Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva Oy and<br />
Irmeli Mikkonen, Motiva Oy<br />
Panel chairman<br />
Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva Oy<br />
Panel members<br />
Reetta Anderson, YTV Waste Management<br />
Erja Heino, <strong>the</strong> Finnish Association <strong>for</strong><br />
Nature Conservation<br />
Mikael Hildén, Finnish Environment Institute<br />
Helka Julkunen, WWF<br />
Pentti Lahtinen, Ramboll Finland Oy<br />
Tarja Laine, Uusimaa Regional Environment<br />
Centre<br />
Irmeli Mikkonen, Motiva Oy<br />
Jussi Mykkänen, Vaisala Oyj<br />
Aleksi Neuvonen, Demos Helsinki<br />
Raija Pikku-Pyhältö, Tekes<br />
Jyri Seppälä, SYKE<br />
Eero Siitonen, Inesco Oy<br />
Risto Talja, Metso Paper Oyj<br />
Harri Turpeinen, Neste Oil Oyj<br />
5.1 Introduction<br />
The focus of <strong>the</strong> work in <strong>the</strong> Society based on energy<br />
and material efficiency panel was on meticulous<br />
and economical use of resources. Those include<br />
<strong>the</strong> management of environmental impacts<br />
during <strong>the</strong> product’s value chain, and <strong>the</strong> competitive<br />
edge achieved as <strong>the</strong> global regulation becomes<br />
more strict, and that of <strong>the</strong> changes in <strong>the</strong><br />
supply and prices of energy and resources. Important<br />
aspects to be included are also societal aspects<br />
in use and reuse of materials and energy:<br />
lifestyles, cultural issues, motivation, costs and<br />
global aspects. The society based on energy and<br />
material efficiency is also strongly linked to understanding<br />
of ecosystems, environmental management<br />
and infrastructure, energy production,<br />
energy and material efficiency as well as industrial<br />
structure, logistics and mobility, and intelligent<br />
technology solutions.<br />
Global situation, difference in resources, poverty<br />
and economical development and <strong>the</strong>ir impact<br />
were widely discussed. The global trends have<br />
become quite local also and affect individual regions<br />
and countries differently. Finland’s standpoint<br />
and role in global environment became <strong>the</strong><br />
leading issue and <strong>the</strong> work was done from that respect.<br />
Finland’s dependency as an exporter on <strong>the</strong><br />
global economy and market supports <strong>the</strong> global<br />
aspect and on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand <strong>the</strong> global viewpoint<br />
supports Finland’s angle towards export markets.<br />
The target was set to envisage Finland as society<br />
and Finland’s competitiveness on global market.<br />
How Finland will manage in <strong>the</strong> economic competition?<br />
Finland’s economy is largely based on<br />
process industry products on global market. On<br />
<strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand Finland has limited natural resources,<br />
relatively clean nature and <strong>the</strong> country is<br />
sparsely populated with no large metropolises.<br />
Increasingly available IC-technology, novel business<br />
concepts and new materials, but also mobility<br />
requirements, increasing demand but also insufficiency<br />
of energy sources and <strong>the</strong> threats<br />
caused by <strong>the</strong> climate change are key aspects<br />
from <strong>the</strong> Finnish perspective, too.<br />
Certain aspects, less important from <strong>the</strong> Finnish<br />
perspective, like water resources, clean water and<br />
global land use, were left out.<br />
It was agreed that <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight goal needs to be<br />
far enough in terms of time as in energy field <strong>the</strong><br />
infrastructure is very slow to change and investments<br />
are commonly made <strong>for</strong> about 50 years, <strong>the</strong><br />
planning and decisions <strong>for</strong> 20 years ahead are being<br />
made now. The time-span <strong>for</strong> trends and drivers<br />
was set to 2050, and <strong>for</strong> specific measures <strong>the</strong><br />
goal was set to 2020.<br />
The panel working on this issue had members<br />
from versatile sectors of society. They come from<br />
51
process and energy industry, research institutes,<br />
regional planning, waste management organisations,<br />
companies and NGOs. All <strong>the</strong> panellists are<br />
experts in <strong>the</strong>ir field working on energy, environmental<br />
and material issues.<br />
There are several sources of in<strong>for</strong>mation to obtain<br />
studies and report on <strong>the</strong> issue, but in this work<br />
none of those were used as reference materials.<br />
Ra<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>the</strong> work is based on <strong>the</strong> panellists’ experience<br />
and expertise, which, coming from people<br />
of different sectors in different roles, complemented<br />
to <strong>the</strong> discussion and results of <strong>the</strong> work.<br />
5.2 The <strong>for</strong>eseen changes in<br />
<strong>the</strong> operational environment<br />
The most important phenomena in <strong>the</strong> background<br />
scenario are global economy increase;<br />
Finland’s economy increase and ability to adapt;<br />
and global integration and cooperation versus<br />
isolation and economic and political blocks.<br />
Identification of key trends and<br />
drivers<br />
The overall key driver is climate change. How<br />
much, how soon and in what extent will <strong>the</strong> climate<br />
change affect is still uncertain. The panel<br />
was quite unanimous that <strong>the</strong> role of climate<br />
change will be significant but <strong>the</strong> severity and impacts<br />
are not known yet.<br />
The most important individual drivers coming up<br />
in <strong>the</strong> process are <strong>the</strong> use, insufficiency and price<br />
of energy and natural resources. Those are regarded<br />
as one driver due to <strong>the</strong>ir interdependency.<br />
However, <strong>the</strong> severity of insufficiency remains<br />
uncertain.<br />
Regulation is a significant driver, but it has not<br />
achieved global commitment; on global level it is<br />
still non-existing. Future development and direction<br />
of global commitment on regulation are still<br />
uncertain.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r drivers, though still uncertain, are<br />
Political decision making and leadership<br />
(legislation, regulations)<br />
52<br />
Consumption behaviour and attitudes of both<br />
companies and consumers Link between economic<br />
development and consumption<br />
Global superpowers and <strong>the</strong>ir competition.<br />
In general people’s attitudes are pro environment<br />
but don’t often enough lead to environmentally<br />
sound consumption behaviour, which makes<br />
<strong>the</strong>m a bigger uncertainty ra<strong>the</strong>r than a positive<br />
driver.<br />
Future scenarios<br />
The panelists discussed in groups possible futures<br />
and strategic options and came up with <strong>the</strong><br />
following three scenario options <strong>for</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r process:<br />
1. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources<br />
along with political decision making favouring<br />
sustainable development<br />
2. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources<br />
along with sustainable consumption behaviour<br />
3. Political decision making favouring sustainable<br />
development along with sustainable consumption<br />
behaviour.<br />
In more detailed scrutiny of <strong>the</strong> scenarios <strong>the</strong> second<br />
option turned out to be too <strong>the</strong>oretical and unlikely,<br />
although interesting option driven by <strong>the</strong><br />
citizens. As it included several important points<br />
of interest and was merged with <strong>the</strong> option 3. The<br />
two scenario options chosen <strong>for</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r processing<br />
are:<br />
A. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources<br />
along with political decision making favouring<br />
sustainable development<br />
B. Political decision making favouring sustainable<br />
development along with sustainable consumption<br />
behaviour<br />
The future in <strong>the</strong> two scenario options was reflected<br />
to <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>eseen future world in 2050, how<br />
to get <strong>the</strong>re and how Finland would fit in that<br />
world. Both options predict that in <strong>the</strong> 2050 world<br />
material and energy recycling is common and<br />
valued. Prices of energy and raw materials will<br />
increase also.
In <strong>the</strong> scenario A <strong>the</strong>re will be a global crisis<br />
which leads to political pressure and to strong<br />
economical regulation and institutional control.<br />
General attitudes and capacity building favour<br />
life-cycle consciousness of products and services<br />
Also nationalism will increase and <strong>the</strong> social responsibility<br />
of companies regresses. Finland as a<br />
small nation is quick in decision making and becomes<br />
a model country of sustainable development.<br />
Companies adapt to existing situation and<br />
serenity in <strong>the</strong> society prevails.<br />
Sustainability favouring politics in scenario B<br />
leads to improved infrastructure; dense living environment,<br />
efficient public transport and good<br />
IT-infrastructure. Also education towards sustainability<br />
is favoured. The sustainability thinking<br />
is a result of a catastrophe (e.g. natural disaster).<br />
That brings along substantial increase in energy<br />
and environment awareness, and global decision<br />
making in that respect.<br />
Finland’s position in this option is similar to <strong>the</strong><br />
one of option A. The infrastructure becomes<br />
more centralised, <strong>the</strong>re’s consensus in <strong>the</strong> society,<br />
and more immigrants are welcomed to Finland.<br />
Finland exports high quality material and<br />
energy efficiency and IT solutions.<br />
Different paths lead to similar needs<br />
Political threats in <strong>the</strong> society lead to increasingly<br />
important roles of preparedness <strong>for</strong> crisis and security<br />
of supply. Dependency on global politics<br />
and balance affects all countries but has <strong>the</strong> most<br />
serious impacts on <strong>the</strong> less developed ones.<br />
Natural disasters, catastrophes have less impact<br />
on all societies and will not necessarily lead to social<br />
crisis. Floods, exceptionally dry seasons, and<br />
notable changes in temperatures and seasons are<br />
commonly referred as impacts of climate change.<br />
The attitudes and thinking of <strong>the</strong> future becomes<br />
more and more pro environment among people<br />
and thus also affects to political decision making<br />
on national but also on global level.<br />
Both a severe global crisis bringing along harsh<br />
regulation and strict institutional control in <strong>the</strong><br />
society, and disasters leading to sustainable deci-<br />
sion making will tackle <strong>the</strong> problems of insufficiency<br />
of material resources and energy.<br />
Insufficiency of resources leads to price increases<br />
and failures in deliveries of e.g. metals, and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
raw materials <strong>for</strong> industry. Water and food deliveries<br />
affect people directly. Whilst <strong>the</strong> everyday<br />
life of <strong>the</strong> people is affected directly or indirectly<br />
by <strong>the</strong> lack of resources or deliveries, <strong>the</strong> local<br />
community becomes more important. Both in society<br />
and in single families <strong>the</strong> insufficiency of<br />
resources is evident which leads to regulation of<br />
e.g. energy use and better or stronger control.<br />
When <strong>the</strong> society through a compulsion becomes<br />
more authoritative and increases public ownership<br />
and regulation <strong>the</strong> slowdown of economic<br />
development is evident <strong>for</strong> a while. The knowhow<br />
and capacity building will take a new turn as<br />
high-level administrative capacity and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
skills are in demand.<br />
Sustainable values in society rule out excess consumption<br />
and focus will be on life’s necessities.<br />
Life becomes poorer in materials but recycling,<br />
renovation and reuse compensate. Life becomes<br />
also local. Local isolated communities might,<br />
however, also bring along racism. Simultaneously<br />
<strong>the</strong> reuse-repair society needs craftsmen<br />
as professionals but also as entrepreneurs.<br />
Travelling and commuting will decrease as <strong>the</strong><br />
communities become denser and need <strong>for</strong> travelling<br />
is compensated by virtual services. Also<br />
working life changes, working at home increases<br />
and new, small businesses are established.<br />
Sustainable politics and consumption behaviour<br />
through evident threat of climate change requires<br />
a dense society in terms of infrastructure and efficient<br />
services. Regulation and control increase<br />
and e.g. strict building codes create new <strong>for</strong>ms <strong>for</strong><br />
communities. Intelligent building systems enable<br />
several options <strong>for</strong> use, better services and new<br />
working methods.<br />
Transport and commuting change as public transport<br />
and non-motorised commuting become<br />
more attractive, telecommuting increases and logistics<br />
improve. Modal shift from road to rail<br />
53
changes <strong>the</strong> need <strong>for</strong> private cars and changes <strong>the</strong><br />
travelling behaviour towards more local travel..<br />
Service sector brings along more working opportunities<br />
as do <strong>the</strong> IT solutions and services. Local<br />
services <strong>for</strong> food production are also in increase.<br />
Needs, challenges and opportunities<br />
There are, however, several needs, uncertainties<br />
and challenges that <strong>the</strong> society, in this case Finland,<br />
will face through <strong>the</strong> change. The economy<br />
might be in turmoil as <strong>the</strong> administration becomes<br />
more bureaucratic and more expensive.<br />
Centralised control in <strong>the</strong> society brings along<br />
many needs and challenges.<br />
Many of <strong>the</strong> challenges can also be turned into<br />
opportunities. Stronger administration and control<br />
need skilled personnel and capacity building<br />
needs to be increased. At <strong>the</strong> same time employment<br />
in administration improves but maintaining<br />
heavy institutional control is expensive. Whilst<br />
<strong>the</strong> central administration is strong people need<br />
local unity and regional and local communities<br />
become more valuable.<br />
Revenue generation strategy faces new opportunities<br />
as rural areas need local services. State regulations<br />
on dense, concentrated urban infrastructure<br />
and transport prevail, but on local level <strong>the</strong> communities<br />
become important bodies. Bringing all public<br />
services to local level calls <strong>for</strong> investments.<br />
The values in <strong>the</strong> society streng<strong>the</strong>n equal treatment<br />
of all, liberality and equity. The government<br />
steering is strong and faces visionary challenges.<br />
As <strong>the</strong> society is quite isolated it must solve <strong>the</strong><br />
problem how to treat <strong>the</strong> immigrants and deal<br />
with <strong>the</strong>ir adaptation to <strong>the</strong> society. Understanding<br />
of <strong>the</strong> multicultural society and learning<br />
through virtual experiences challenge <strong>the</strong> nation.<br />
The economy faces new challenges to meet <strong>the</strong><br />
new society’s needs, and traditional industrial<br />
products and services might not be in demand any<br />
more. Finland’s economy has been based on process<br />
and heavy metal industry, which might be in<br />
54<br />
danger if raw materials and energy prices go up<br />
and deliveries fail. The industry needs to develop<br />
more efficient energy and material solutions. Recycling,<br />
renovation and reuse of products become<br />
more attractive options. Investments in development<br />
of new materials and material and energy<br />
efficiency solutions will accumulate to novel designs<br />
and services <strong>for</strong> export market. Finland becomes<br />
a front runner in planning of material and<br />
energy efficient, sustainable and repairable and<br />
easily serviced products on global markets.<br />
At <strong>the</strong> same time <strong>the</strong> IC technology will have a<br />
larger foothold in <strong>the</strong> society but <strong>the</strong> technology<br />
needs to be developed to <strong>the</strong> desired level. New,<br />
advanced IC technology will facilitate <strong>the</strong><br />
operability of <strong>the</strong> society <strong>for</strong> telecommuting, communication<br />
and services. On a family level <strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
technology takes a lead over people’s<br />
choices and virtual experience products are in demand.<br />
The in<strong>for</strong>mation technology needs labour<br />
as well and expertise and new skills call <strong>for</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r<br />
training and capacity building. Finland has an opportunity,<br />
and a need, to develop novel technology<br />
concepts and services <strong>for</strong> global market.<br />
Energy production and energy use need to be<br />
more local, which challenges energy supply and<br />
production methods. There is need <strong>for</strong> new energy<br />
solutions and fuels to compensate <strong>the</strong> conventional<br />
ones. Energy production will be largely<br />
based on micro-generation using waste and renewable<br />
sources.<br />
Probable shortage of energy might lead to restricted<br />
use of heating and electricity use in buildings. That<br />
challenges <strong>the</strong> industry to develop new more efficient<br />
energy products, low-energy systems and energy<br />
and material efficient design and planning. Potential<br />
lower room temperatures challenge also e.g.<br />
clothing design and manufacturing - can <strong>the</strong> lower<br />
room temperatures be compensated with intelligent<br />
clothing materials and solutions? Cold climate<br />
technology faces opportunities in developing new<br />
solutions <strong>for</strong> increasing demand.<br />
In densely structured communities buildings are<br />
high tech and intelligent. The building codes are<br />
strict and call <strong>for</strong> detailed reporting. Dense infra-
structure will <strong>for</strong>ce to build higher buildings. Energy<br />
efficient and intelligent building solutions<br />
will facilitate use of new building materials as<br />
well as multiple purposes <strong>for</strong> buildings. Intelligent<br />
buildings provide opportunities <strong>for</strong> telecommuting.<br />
Work has become more in<strong>for</strong>mation concentrated,<br />
and telecommuting is popular and supported.<br />
Transport of goods and peoples’commuting<br />
and <strong>the</strong>ir increasing needs will change <strong>the</strong><br />
transport infrastructure. That results in decreased<br />
use of private cars, increased popularity of public<br />
transport, non-motorised transport and car-sharing<br />
and leasing. Public transport has to offer new<br />
mobility options, also <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> disabled ones.<br />
Modal shift from road to rail is evident as rail<br />
transport presents a more ecologically efficient<br />
and economical option. Logistics systems and<br />
services development require large investments<br />
and inputs in logistics management and training.<br />
As infrastructure will be more dense and concentrated,<br />
it might lead to isolated areas elsewhere as<br />
services and work places move in centres. On <strong>the</strong><br />
o<strong>the</strong>r hand that allows new opportunities to new<br />
service businesses and entrepreneurs.<br />
Food supply will face new challenges as deliveries<br />
might fail and <strong>the</strong> society calls <strong>for</strong> local food<br />
production. Also, fresh and clean water reserves<br />
might be in danger. Will peoples shopping and<br />
eating habits change? Increased local food production<br />
becomes necessary. Ecologically produced<br />
products are in demand, because <strong>the</strong> importance<br />
to cut CO 2 emissions in food production<br />
and distribution are in favour. Vast variety of related<br />
local services, e.g. home delivery, catering,<br />
restaurant take-out, will be developed and improved<br />
to meet <strong>the</strong> new demands.<br />
The new dense, community based, IT concentrated<br />
society allows people more free time. The<br />
sustainable choices don’t allow much travelling<br />
and on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand <strong>the</strong> work is static lacking<br />
physical ef<strong>for</strong>ts. In <strong>the</strong>ir free time people favour<br />
local travelling, camping and hiking. Virtual hobbies<br />
and intelligent IC technology present new<br />
opportunities <strong>for</strong> people.<br />
5.3 Setting of a vision and<br />
strategic goals and<br />
identification of<br />
<strong>the</strong> actions needed to<br />
achieve <strong>the</strong> goals<br />
The scenario work brought up several opportunities<br />
<strong>for</strong> Finland to learn and take advantage of <strong>the</strong><br />
possible changes, <strong>the</strong> unique location of <strong>the</strong><br />
country, natural resources and climate, and <strong>the</strong><br />
highly educated population to be competent on<br />
global markets. There was common understanding<br />
that Finland’s strengths are in energy and material<br />
efficiency products and services; renewable<br />
energy, especially bioenergy solutions; IT solutions<br />
and services; and highly educated people.<br />
The vision <strong>for</strong> 2050 was commonly agreed on<br />
those principles:<br />
Innovative Finland interprets to environmental<br />
sustainability, people’s welfare and economical<br />
success. The key elements of that are top level energy<br />
and material efficient solutions and services.<br />
In Finland <strong>the</strong>re are internationally leading<br />
professionals and export companies in <strong>the</strong>se<br />
sectors.<br />
To achieve <strong>the</strong> vision of 2050 Finland, some definitions<br />
and pre-requisitions must be taken into<br />
consideration:<br />
Attitudes must change towards energy and<br />
environmental sustainability<br />
Green-house gas and climate change challenges<br />
must be taken seriously in all levels<br />
Environmental competence throughout all<br />
sectors must be improved<br />
Economical aspects of sustainability are<br />
important <strong>for</strong> maintaining competitiveness<br />
Being a <strong>for</strong>e-runner on chosen sectors is essential<br />
Directives and regulation must support <strong>the</strong><br />
development<br />
Finnish society is globally competent in<br />
sustainable use of resources.<br />
55
Roadmaps to achieve <strong>the</strong> goals<br />
The panel discussed <strong>the</strong> strategic goals and alternative<br />
solutions and actions to achieve <strong>the</strong> goals<br />
set in <strong>the</strong> vision. Altoge<strong>the</strong>r eight main solutions<br />
were identified of which five were chosen <strong>for</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r<br />
process. Those all are based on Finland’s opportunities<br />
and strengths. They have impact to <strong>the</strong><br />
whole society while <strong>the</strong>y also include specific solutions<br />
<strong>for</strong> Finland’s future competence and economical<br />
competiveness on global markets.<br />
Spatial planning, housing and<br />
transport<br />
The spatial planning aims at dense and mixed urban<br />
structure with well functioning rail transport.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> urban communities distances to work, services<br />
and recreational areas are close to home.<br />
Finland will be globally competent in producing<br />
public transport solutions and products, and<br />
low-energy, material and energy efficient products<br />
and services.<br />
To achieve <strong>the</strong>se goals, set <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> year 2020, Finland<br />
needs to invest in research, development and<br />
innovation (R&D&I) activities, education and<br />
56<br />
Support <strong>for</strong> new<br />
practices<br />
Solutions<br />
Societal <strong>basis</strong><br />
Energy and material efficiency – Vision and goals<br />
Demand <strong>for</strong> systematic<br />
innovations and new<br />
practices<br />
Understanding of <strong>the</strong><br />
sustainable use of energy<br />
and materials<br />
Models <strong>for</strong> regulating<br />
and measuring energy<br />
and material efficiency<br />
over <strong>the</strong> life cycle<br />
New practices <strong>for</strong> energy and<br />
material efficiency in communities<br />
and society<br />
Energy and material<br />
efficiency solutions <strong>for</strong><br />
current activities<br />
Crisis or<br />
change in attitudes<br />
Demand <strong>for</strong> energy and<br />
material efficient solutions<br />
Higher energy and raw<br />
material prices<br />
Innovative Finland<br />
interprets to environmental<br />
sustainability, people’s welfare<br />
and economical success.<br />
The key elements of that are top<br />
level energy and material efficient<br />
solutions and services. In<br />
Finland <strong>the</strong>re are internationally<br />
leading professionals and<br />
export companies in <strong>the</strong>se<br />
sectors.<br />
TIME 2050<br />
Figure 5.1. Vision <strong>for</strong> Finland in 2050<br />
capacity building in <strong>the</strong> sectors and provide appropriate<br />
and sufficient regulation and support<br />
mechanisms. The main trends and drivers to<br />
achieve <strong>the</strong> goals include aging population,<br />
changing <strong>basis</strong> of wellbeing and happiness but<br />
also <strong>the</strong> current urban structure toge<strong>the</strong>r with<br />
need to reduce energy consumption and decrease<br />
of CO 2 emissions. Novel ICT solutions also present<br />
good opportunities <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> change.<br />
The central solutions presented in <strong>the</strong> table above<br />
can be supported by developing energy and material<br />
efficiency indicators and monitoring and<br />
life-cycle systems <strong>for</strong> spatial planning and land<br />
use. Legislation and specific regulations towards<br />
energy and material efficient buildings and components<br />
must be improved. Public transport services<br />
must be improved and one option <strong>for</strong> that<br />
direction is to develop sustainable pricing systems<br />
in mobility and transport sector.<br />
There are also challenges and barriers to achieve<br />
<strong>the</strong> goals. Living in a dense urban environment<br />
might become too expensive. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand<br />
<strong>the</strong> standard of living might increase to <strong>the</strong> level<br />
where excess consumption and wasteful lifestyle<br />
become common on sustainability’s expense.
Why?<br />
Drivers<br />
and<br />
trends<br />
What?<br />
Central<br />
solutions<br />
How?<br />
– skills<br />
– practices<br />
– co-operation<br />
Changing <strong>basis</strong> of<br />
wellbeing and<br />
happiness<br />
Renovation of existing<br />
houses and areas<br />
Finnish lifestyle might not remain unchanged<br />
where private car use is excessive and families<br />
have single-family houses and summer houses.<br />
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised<br />
in Figure 5.2.<br />
Energy and material efficiency of<br />
industrial production<br />
In <strong>the</strong> year 2020 Finland will be a top exporter of<br />
energy and material efficient products and services.<br />
There will be internationally leading Finnish<br />
manufacturers and exporters on <strong>the</strong> global market<br />
in certain sectors: <strong>for</strong>est and metal industry, alternative<br />
transport fuels, water purification technology<br />
and IC technology. Some areas of chemical<br />
industry could also be Finland’s strengths. Finland’s<br />
strength is based on long experience and<br />
know-how in energy intensive process and metal<br />
industry which facilitates new business areas in<br />
smart processes and management of material and<br />
energy flows.<br />
Spatial planning, housing and transport<br />
ICT solutions and<br />
telepresence <strong>for</strong> work<br />
Energy and material efficiency<br />
indicators and life cycle models<br />
<strong>for</strong> urban spatial planning<br />
R&D&I and<br />
investments in<br />
public transport<br />
Pressure to minimi<br />
energy consumptio<br />
and CO emissions (and<br />
2<br />
hence pressure on<br />
current low density<br />
urban structures)<br />
Smart low energy homes<br />
(also <strong>for</strong> export)<br />
Tax incentives and<br />
regulation <strong>for</strong><br />
housing and transport<br />
Aging<br />
R&D&I activities <strong>for</strong><br />
developing energy and<br />
material efficient housing<br />
Energy and material efficient services<br />
e.g. retailing, waste management,<br />
car sharing etc.<br />
Public transport systems<br />
Use of waste energy<br />
e.g. from waste water<br />
ICT solutions<br />
R&D&I activities <strong>for</strong><br />
developing energy and<br />
material efficient services<br />
Housing regulation<br />
Figure 5.2. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach <strong>the</strong> goals of spatial planning,<br />
housing and transport<br />
If <strong>the</strong> goal is achieved production volumes will<br />
increase. Business opportunities in service sector<br />
improve as research and capacity building develop.<br />
IC technology solutions will be utilised<br />
substantially more also in energy efficiency sector<br />
and need <strong>for</strong> travelling is compensated by digital<br />
services. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand global prices of<br />
raw materials increase due to insufficiency of<br />
supply. There’s also increasing need to move <strong>for</strong><br />
work opportunities.<br />
To achieve <strong>the</strong> goal <strong>the</strong> competence must be ensured<br />
by investing in basic research and improving<br />
vocational education of experts as well as<br />
supporting entrepreneurship. Investments in<br />
R&D&I <strong>for</strong> activities in material and energy efficient<br />
industry as well as support mechanisms <strong>for</strong><br />
commercialization of new innovations. Material<br />
and energy efficient solutions should be supported<br />
with lower taxation than <strong>the</strong> conventional<br />
ones. Indicator and life-cycle systems <strong>for</strong> material<br />
and energy efficiency industrial products<br />
must be developed.<br />
57
The main drivers in <strong>the</strong> sector are increased energy<br />
and material prices and need to cut <strong>the</strong> CO 2<br />
emissions. Global competition <strong>for</strong>ces Finland to<br />
take a new turn in industrial production especially<br />
in <strong>the</strong> energy intensive process technology<br />
due to isolated location and globalised market.<br />
Regulation presents new challenges also. IC technology<br />
offers a good plat<strong>for</strong>m to develop new solutions<br />
and services on global market.<br />
There are some uncertainties or challenges that<br />
need to overcome to achieve <strong>the</strong> goals. The education<br />
system fails to improve according to <strong>the</strong><br />
needs and support <strong>for</strong> entrepreneurship lacks.<br />
There must also be courage to change <strong>the</strong> existing<br />
industrial structure on time. EU regulation<br />
might become an obstacle <strong>for</strong> competition in<br />
global perspective. Radical changes in global<br />
politics or economy might steer <strong>the</strong> development<br />
elsewhere.<br />
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised<br />
in Figure 5.3.<br />
58<br />
Why?<br />
Drivers<br />
and<br />
trends<br />
What?<br />
Central<br />
solutions<br />
How?<br />
– skills<br />
– practices<br />
– co-operation<br />
Higher energy prices<br />
and pressure toward<br />
lowering CO2<br />
emissions<br />
Energy and material efficiency in industry<br />
Globally competitive energy and<br />
material efficient products<br />
Understanding and<br />
management of energy and<br />
material flows<br />
Energy and material efficiency<br />
indicators and life cycle models<br />
<strong>for</strong> industrial products<br />
Support mechanism<br />
<strong>for</strong> energy and<br />
material efficiency<br />
in R&D projects<br />
Global competition<br />
Standards and public<br />
procurement<br />
Regulation and<br />
potential unequal<br />
regulation<br />
environment<br />
Regulation that supports energy<br />
and material efficiency<br />
(positive feedback)<br />
R&D&I activities <strong>for</strong><br />
developing energy and<br />
material efficient industry<br />
Smart processes<br />
Basic research e.g. on<br />
material and energy<br />
flows<br />
ICT<br />
Energy and material<br />
efficient services<br />
Support <strong>for</strong><br />
commercialisation, e.g. pilot<br />
processes, entrepreneurship<br />
Education <strong>for</strong><br />
experts in process<br />
engineering,<br />
chemistry etc.<br />
Figure 5.3. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach <strong>the</strong> goals of energy and<br />
material efficiency in industry<br />
Energy production – CO 2 and small<br />
scale<br />
The target is to maintain sufficient energy production<br />
to ensure equal welfare of people. In <strong>the</strong> year<br />
2020 <strong>the</strong>re’s a 30% reduction of CO 2 emissions<br />
and use of natural resources in energy production,<br />
and everyone has an equal opportunity to use energy.<br />
Local energy production is important to ensure<br />
security of supply and local independency.<br />
Local energy production is possible by utilising<br />
passive solar energy and passive cooling. Waste as<br />
energy source will present opportunities <strong>for</strong> local<br />
production. New alternative technologies, e.g.<br />
small-scale bioenergy and solar heating and electricity<br />
solutions <strong>for</strong> energy generation will be developed.<br />
Infrastructure and electricity distribution<br />
systems support local small-scale production.<br />
The local production requires specific support<br />
mechanisms, e.g. feed-in tariffs, and renewed taxation<br />
systems from <strong>the</strong> government. Also housing<br />
regulation needs to be developed. The small-scale
Why?<br />
Drivers<br />
and<br />
trends<br />
What?<br />
Central<br />
solutions<br />
How?<br />
– skills<br />
– practices<br />
– co-operation<br />
Climate change and<br />
pressure <strong>for</strong> lower CO<br />
emissions. Global<br />
regulation of Co2<br />
energy production infrastructure must be understood<br />
to facilitate proper distribution and logistics<br />
systems. Investments in R&D&I activities ensure<br />
development of new systems and services.<br />
The central drivers are based on need to improve<br />
energy production more efficient and reduce CO 2<br />
emissions. Climate change requires actions to reduce<br />
CO 2 emissions and CO 2tax on energy production<br />
is evident. Efficient use of resources, e.g.<br />
waste energy, is an effective driver. Security of<br />
supply must be ensured with local production.<br />
Small-scale solutions are essential in rural areas.<br />
There are several obstacles to achieve <strong>the</strong> target.<br />
Global CO 2 taxation might not be implemented<br />
in some countries and hinders sustainable production<br />
methods’ development. Development of<br />
novel renewable energy production technologies<br />
might suffer from increased amount of nuclear<br />
power production. If energy consumption increases<br />
substantially <strong>the</strong> advantages of low emission<br />
production might be lost.<br />
Energy production – CO and small scale<br />
2<br />
Use of ”waste” heat<br />
Specific support<br />
mechanisms<br />
(e.g. feed-in tariffs)<br />
2<br />
Need <strong>for</strong> security of<br />
supply<br />
Use of passive cooling<br />
Better understanding of <strong>the</strong> pros<br />
and cons of small scale systems<br />
(e.g. ccs, distribution, logistics)<br />
Energy taxation that<br />
takes CO into account<br />
2<br />
Efficient use of<br />
resources, including<br />
waste<br />
Electricity distribution and<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r infrastructure systems<br />
support small scale production<br />
Use of passive solar heat<br />
Understanding of local<br />
energy resources<br />
Need <strong>for</strong> small scale<br />
heat and power<br />
production systems<br />
in less densely<br />
populated and rural<br />
areas<br />
Technologies <strong>for</strong> small scale<br />
bio, solar etc. electricity<br />
and heat<br />
R&D&I activities <strong>for</strong> developing small<br />
scale energy systems<br />
Housing regulation<br />
Figure 5.4. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach <strong>the</strong> goals of energy production<br />
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised<br />
in Figure 5.4.<br />
Sustainable use of resources and<br />
materials<br />
The target <strong>for</strong> sustainable use of resources and<br />
materials was set <strong>for</strong> year 2010. Sustainable use is<br />
in line with <strong>the</strong> current trend of limited supply of<br />
resources and materials. Sustainable use of materials<br />
and resources covers <strong>the</strong> essential resources<br />
<strong>for</strong> Finnish industry. Forest based raw-materials<br />
of pulp and paper industry and wood energy production;<br />
biomass and peat <strong>for</strong> energy production,<br />
minerals and water resources. Sustainability in<br />
material and resources use is still underdeveloped<br />
and provides several possibilities <strong>for</strong> new solutions<br />
and businesses.<br />
The most important solutions towards sustainability<br />
are increased recycling and reuse of materials<br />
and products, utilization of waste and side<br />
flows in processes. Industrial ecology principles<br />
59
provide new production solutions and innovations.<br />
Holistic planning of natural resources through <strong>the</strong><br />
whole life-cycle produces new services and systems<br />
in industry.<br />
Basic research on material and energy flows and<br />
understanding of material life-cycle models must<br />
be in place. National and international regulation<br />
must be supportive to recycling and re-use of<br />
products. New criteria and methods and technologies<br />
<strong>for</strong> sustainable use of materials need to be<br />
developed and local social and economical<br />
sustainability need models. Realistic understanding<br />
of <strong>the</strong> exploitation potential of natural resources<br />
can be achieved through education and<br />
research. It’s also important to use <strong>the</strong> utilized resources<br />
to <strong>the</strong> fullest, e.g. through collaboration<br />
with o<strong>the</strong>r industries.<br />
The main drivers <strong>for</strong> sustainable use of materials<br />
are globally increasing demand <strong>for</strong> energy and<br />
raw-materials and at <strong>the</strong> same time <strong>the</strong> resources<br />
are limited. That leads to price increase. Uncon-<br />
60<br />
Why?<br />
Drivers<br />
and<br />
trends<br />
What?<br />
Central<br />
solutions<br />
How?<br />
– skills<br />
– practices<br />
– co-operation<br />
Sustainable use of resources and material<br />
Ingreasing demand <strong>for</strong> energy<br />
and o<strong>the</strong>r natural resources<br />
globally<br />
Utilisation of side flows<br />
and waste<br />
Technologies that support efficient<br />
use of <strong>the</strong> natural resources<br />
Understanding of available natural<br />
resources and sustainable consumption<br />
level n Finland and globally<br />
Limited resources and higher<br />
prices<br />
Holistic planning of <strong>the</strong> whole lifecycle of<br />
natural resources in different industries<br />
Increased recycling<br />
Criteria and models <strong>for</strong><br />
sustainable use of materials<br />
Basic research e.g. on<br />
material and energy<br />
flows<br />
Damage to <strong>the</strong> environment<br />
Industrial ecology<br />
Models <strong>for</strong> social and<br />
economic sustainability<br />
locally<br />
Regulation that<br />
supports re-use and<br />
recycling<br />
Figure 5.5. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach <strong>the</strong> goals of sustainable use of<br />
resources and material<br />
trolled use of energy and materials and waste production<br />
are harmful <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> environment.<br />
Sustainable uses of resources might be questionable<br />
if <strong>the</strong> environmental impacts of <strong>the</strong> process<br />
exceed <strong>the</strong> benefits. Sustainable actions must ensure<br />
<strong>the</strong> continuation of local employment and<br />
businesses.<br />
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised<br />
in Figure 5.5.<br />
Environmental competence and<br />
management of <strong>the</strong> society<br />
A sustainable society ensures that basic education<br />
and competence levels are good and regulative<br />
measures ensure active development. The target<br />
<strong>for</strong> those was set <strong>for</strong> 2010. The goal is to increase<br />
Finnish exports and that calls <strong>for</strong> competent expertise<br />
also in political decision making and in public<br />
and private sectors to facilitate <strong>the</strong> implementation<br />
of actions. Central solutions to achieve <strong>the</strong> target
Why?<br />
Drivers<br />
and<br />
trends<br />
What?<br />
Central<br />
solutions<br />
How?<br />
– skills<br />
– practices<br />
– co-operation<br />
are competent skills <strong>for</strong> energy and material efficiency<br />
activities which ensure competence and<br />
competitiveness of <strong>the</strong> industries. Regulation and<br />
procurement methods must be efficient and effective.<br />
For <strong>the</strong> implementation <strong>the</strong> society needs to<br />
support peoples’ wellbeing and happiness.<br />
The competence can be ensured by investing substantially<br />
in education and training energy and<br />
material efficiency to all, from primary schools to<br />
advanced and continuing education at work. Primary<br />
education is insufficient and too slow to<br />
bring change and improvement in competence<br />
and <strong>the</strong>re<strong>for</strong>e <strong>the</strong> capacity building has to cover<br />
<strong>the</strong> whole society at <strong>the</strong> same time. Basic research<br />
on material and energy efficiency must be<br />
invested in, and new regulations and support<br />
mechanisms must be developed accordingly.<br />
Regulation and support <strong>for</strong> procurement test beds<br />
and commercialization, e.g. pilot processed and<br />
entrepreneurship, risk funding, are needed. There<br />
need be new life-cycle models and indicators to<br />
monitor energy and material efficiency as well.<br />
Environmental skills and management in society<br />
Climate change and limited<br />
resources<br />
Efficient and effective<br />
regulation and procurement<br />
Regulation and<br />
procurement test beds<br />
Basic skills <strong>for</strong> everyone<br />
– primary education<br />
Globalisation and<br />
more complex and<br />
wider networks<br />
Competitive industries<br />
Skills <strong>for</strong> energy and material efficient activities<br />
Energy and material efficiency<br />
indicators and life cycle models<br />
Basic research e.g. on material and<br />
energy efficiency and market<br />
regulation and support mechanisms<br />
Need <strong>for</strong> political decisions<br />
and regulation<br />
Support to wellbeing and<br />
happiness<br />
Support <strong>for</strong> commercialisation, e.g.<br />
pilot processes, entrepreneurship<br />
Education and energy and<br />
material efficiency skills in<br />
many disciplines<br />
Figure 5.6. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach <strong>the</strong> goals of environmental<br />
skills and control in society<br />
Attitudes and behaviour changes are essential<br />
and those don’t happen without sufficient in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
e.g. through education, best practices and<br />
evidence of benefits both in terms of sustainability<br />
and economy.<br />
The main drivers, which however might also turn<br />
out to be obstacles when failing, are based on improved<br />
competence throughout <strong>the</strong> society. Economical<br />
and administrative control to right direction<br />
is essential and that calls <strong>for</strong> improved competence<br />
and skills from <strong>the</strong> decision makers to<br />
make educated decisions. Encouraging regulative<br />
measures speed up <strong>the</strong> development. Climate<br />
change and limited resources are effective drivers<br />
<strong>for</strong> improving competence in <strong>the</strong> society. Globalisation<br />
requires new skills and expertise to<br />
manage in <strong>the</strong> economical competition. Wider<br />
and more complex professional and economical<br />
networks need new skilled people.<br />
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised<br />
in Figure 5.6.<br />
61
5.4 Roadmap to society based<br />
on energy and material<br />
efficiency<br />
There must be a genuine, common will to develop<br />
<strong>the</strong> society into sustainable direction. That, in <strong>the</strong><br />
first place, means legislation and regulations that<br />
support <strong>the</strong> activity. International cooperation in<br />
regulative measures as well as in political decision<br />
creates <strong>the</strong> foundation <strong>for</strong> development of<br />
energy and material efficient education, research,<br />
technologies and application.<br />
The following roadmap describes <strong>the</strong> central solutions<br />
<strong>the</strong> means to achieve <strong>the</strong> solutions and main<br />
drivers and trends <strong>for</strong> energy and material efficient<br />
society. The solutions have already been described<br />
in more detail in chapter 5.3 of this report.<br />
Research and education<br />
The key challenge is to improve and broaden <strong>the</strong><br />
education of energy, material and environmental<br />
62<br />
Why?<br />
Drivers<br />
and<br />
trends<br />
What?<br />
Central<br />
solutions<br />
How?<br />
– skills<br />
– practices<br />
– co-operation<br />
Climate change, global<br />
competition of energy<br />
and o<strong>the</strong>r resources<br />
Sustainable communities,<br />
housing and everyday mobility<br />
issues to cover all levels in <strong>the</strong> society. It is of outmost<br />
importance to provide fur<strong>the</strong>r training and<br />
continuing education <strong>for</strong> those already in working<br />
life in industry, service sector and public sector<br />
including political decision makers, while<br />
also providing primary and vocational education.<br />
For vocational education <strong>the</strong>re’s a need to invest<br />
in areas critical <strong>for</strong> improvement of competence<br />
in material and energy efficiency. Material and<br />
energy efficiency should be integrated in various<br />
sectoral curricula in order to produce competent<br />
expertise <strong>for</strong> different sectors in society.<br />
The interdependency of different sectors and<br />
stakeholders is so strong in establishment of a<br />
foundation and methods <strong>for</strong> sustainable society<br />
in <strong>the</strong> near future that all stakeholders’ competence<br />
and contribution must be included. In<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
dissemination combined with training to<br />
change attitudes and behaviour will complement<br />
<strong>the</strong> specific education in all levels.<br />
Entrepreneurship should be supported by providing<br />
education and fur<strong>the</strong>r training <strong>for</strong> companies.<br />
Energy and material efficiency<br />
Environmental skills and<br />
control in society<br />
R&D and education – skills <strong>for</strong><br />
creating solutions<br />
Strategic will and<br />
acceptance of<br />
regulation<br />
Pressure on traditional<br />
way of life and doing<br />
business due to global<br />
integration<br />
Criteria <strong>for</strong><br />
sustainability<br />
Values and attitudes,<br />
global politics<br />
Energy production – Local small<br />
scale production and CO 2<br />
Change in values, attitudes<br />
and behaviour<br />
Sustainable use of resources<br />
and materials<br />
Indicators <strong>for</strong><br />
sustainability<br />
Potential international<br />
crisis<br />
Energy and material<br />
efficiency solutions <strong>for</strong><br />
major industrial clusters<br />
Support <strong>for</strong> developing<br />
energy and material<br />
efficient solutions<br />
Economic incentives<br />
based on accepted<br />
indicators<br />
Figure 5.7. Summary of drivers, solutions and actions to reach <strong>the</strong> goals
Ano<strong>the</strong>r <strong>basis</strong> is to ensure strong and competent<br />
basic and applied research in material and energy<br />
efficiency to enable <strong>the</strong> industry to adapt<br />
<strong>the</strong> research results and develop new business<br />
opportunities. That calls <strong>for</strong> considerable resources<br />
and investments in capacity building <strong>for</strong><br />
research.<br />
Competent capacity of all stakeholders through<br />
education and efficient R&D&I will support <strong>the</strong><br />
change. Efficient R&D&I mean open mind, active<br />
dialog and flawless cooperation between universities<br />
and research institutes, government organisations<br />
and <strong>the</strong> industry. That cooperation could be<br />
streng<strong>the</strong>ned by developing an open innovation<br />
environment <strong>for</strong> energy and material efficiency,<br />
where all stakeholders could provide ideas and initiatives.<br />
It would provide input to industry and<br />
companies in development of a feedback instrument<br />
<strong>for</strong> development of processes, systems and<br />
services. The innovation environment would also<br />
work to o<strong>the</strong>r direction by increasing motivation<br />
and interest to improve new material and energy<br />
efficiency activities and areas.<br />
Indicators and monitoring systems<br />
In developing and improving material and energy<br />
efficiency it’s important to develop sufficient and<br />
precise indicators and monitoring systems. Land<br />
use and spatial planning need energy and material<br />
efficiency indicators and monitoring systems to<br />
follow e.g. CO 2 emissions. Life-cycle calculations<br />
need to be supported also with indicators<br />
and calculation methods.<br />
Monitoring should provide easy to understand in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
and positive messages; energy and material<br />
efficiency is inexpensive, easy, and provides<br />
stable com<strong>for</strong>t and more free time.<br />
Indicators and monitoring methods are essential<br />
<strong>for</strong> all sectors of society to justify <strong>the</strong> benefits and<br />
cost efficiency of material and energy efficiency<br />
activities, but also to improve <strong>the</strong> current systems<br />
to meet <strong>the</strong> future needs.<br />
Economical support mechanisms<br />
The indicators give a <strong>basis</strong> to develop supporting<br />
mechanisms and incentives <strong>for</strong> development and<br />
implementation of energy and material efficiency<br />
activities. Taxation is a strong incentive and<br />
would suit well to support sustainable options.<br />
Implementation of CO 2 tax comprehensively<br />
calls <strong>for</strong> actions and agreements on international<br />
(EU/OECD) level, and implementation of all parties.<br />
Taxation on use of natural resources would<br />
decrease excess use and also improve efficient<br />
use of resources. Excess consumption could also<br />
have its own tax to lead to reduced consumption<br />
of resources and products.<br />
Novel technology and applications could receive<br />
special extra funding <strong>for</strong> energy and material efficiency<br />
solutions in R&D support. Risk financing<br />
and standardization enable to bring new technological<br />
solutions and applications faster and easier<br />
to <strong>the</strong> market. Commercialization of new systems<br />
and products need support. Entrepreneurship<br />
should be supported also by new and flexible<br />
funding options and start funding.<br />
Improving transport and mobility systems need<br />
public support. Development of supportive pricing<br />
systems <strong>for</strong> public transport and mobility<br />
would increase <strong>the</strong> attractiveness of public transport.<br />
One harsh option would be to cancel <strong>the</strong> tax<br />
deduction <strong>for</strong> using private cars to work.<br />
Energy and material efficient<br />
technical solutions<br />
Energy storage and distribution technology and systems<br />
must be developed to avoid losses through <strong>the</strong><br />
process. Technology needs public support through,<br />
e.g. investment and R&D support. Regional and local<br />
waste recycling, processing and utilisation systems<br />
can be developed to maximise <strong>the</strong> use of those<br />
<strong>for</strong> energy production and new materials.<br />
New inexpensive technological solutions <strong>for</strong> smallscale<br />
production of solar, wind and bioenergy<br />
(biogas, biodiesel) applications could ensure faster<br />
63
market uptake. Those are important especially in<br />
rural areas. Novel, inexpensive small-scale solutions<br />
would fit well <strong>for</strong> export market.<br />
Public transport services need to be developed to<br />
better meet <strong>the</strong> consumers’ and society’s needs.<br />
Better services increase <strong>the</strong> attractiveness of public<br />
transport also.<br />
There are, however, some barriers <strong>for</strong>eseen,<br />
which might hinder or slow down <strong>the</strong> progress.<br />
Carbon free energy production by nuclear power<br />
might hinder <strong>the</strong> development and implementation<br />
of new renewable energy solutions. Development<br />
of renewable energy applications which<br />
turn out to produce excess amounts of CO 2<br />
through <strong>the</strong> life-cycle and use heavily natural resources<br />
present a barrier also.<br />
5.5 Conclusions and<br />
recommendations<br />
The roadmap presented in chapter 5.4 describes<br />
well <strong>the</strong> future steps <strong>for</strong>ward identifying <strong>the</strong> key<br />
drivers, <strong>the</strong> central solutions how to reach <strong>the</strong> target<br />
and <strong>the</strong> pre-requisites i.e. skills, practices and<br />
changes needed to accommodate <strong>the</strong> solutions.<br />
The proposed vision lies strongly on developing<br />
and improving education and training on energy<br />
and material efficiency comprehensively on all<br />
levels, from primary education to continuing<br />
training of professionals. In addition to education<br />
research has strong foothold as well. Major<br />
change in consumption behaviour and attitudes is<br />
necessary and those can be achieved with <strong>the</strong> education<br />
but also active in<strong>for</strong>mation dissemination<br />
and advice, demonstrating good examples and<br />
economical benefits.<br />
In order to bring <strong>the</strong> novel energy and material efficient<br />
products and services to <strong>the</strong> market, strong<br />
economical support and demonstration projects<br />
are necessary. Policy makers and decision makers<br />
must have strategic will and be committed to support<br />
regulation with economic incentives towards<br />
sustainable development.<br />
64<br />
Strengths and opportunities of<br />
Finnish industry<br />
Finland can best achieve <strong>the</strong> goals to develop new<br />
industrial products and services <strong>for</strong> global market<br />
by relying on <strong>the</strong> strengths today’s Finland has.<br />
The <strong>basis</strong> lies on <strong>the</strong> industries, services and expertise<br />
which are Finland’s strongest export products<br />
today. The background is solid due to <strong>the</strong><br />
long experience of long-term energy efficiency<br />
planning in several sectors.<br />
In<strong>for</strong>mation and Communications<br />
Technology ICT<br />
Some of Finland’s best known export companies<br />
operate in ICT sector. The ICT provides opportunities<br />
<strong>for</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r sectors’ development and new<br />
products in future. Easy communication, teleworking,<br />
internet solutions and services accommodate<br />
opportunities <strong>for</strong> new service products<br />
and applications <strong>for</strong> Finnish companies on global<br />
market.<br />
Material and energy efficient products<br />
and services<br />
Finland is already one of <strong>the</strong> leading countries in<br />
development of energy efficient services, e.g. energy<br />
audit methodology. That expertise will be in<br />
higher demand globally and facilitate also development<br />
of new service products around that expertise.<br />
Integrating material efficiency into energy<br />
efficiency <strong>the</strong> services and products have<br />
better competence on <strong>the</strong> global market.<br />
Finland has developed a high competence in material<br />
and energy efficiency. This expertise and<br />
competence are Finland’s future export products.<br />
Capacity building in energy and material efficiency<br />
is in great demand in economies in transition<br />
and developing countries.<br />
Low-energy building applications and<br />
services<br />
Finnish construction industry has developed energy<br />
efficient applications and solutions in <strong>the</strong><br />
building sector. Intelligent buildings are on <strong>the</strong>
market already. Intelligent renovation solutions,<br />
new materials, insulation technologies and integrated<br />
ICT solutions in buildings among many<br />
are Finland’s future export products. Finnish<br />
know-how of full concepts, design and planning<br />
services and intelligent building products, all<br />
those material and energy efficient of course, will<br />
be in demand on global market.<br />
This sector needs strong support <strong>for</strong> maintaining<br />
<strong>the</strong> expertise and developing <strong>the</strong> products and<br />
services <strong>for</strong> global market in <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
Efficient processes<br />
One of Finland’s strongest sectors has been energy<br />
intensive process industry. In order to be<br />
competent on <strong>the</strong> market <strong>the</strong> processes have been<br />
developed energy and material efficient. That expertise<br />
and experience is valuable in developing<br />
new industries and products, but also as service<br />
product on global market. Investments in developing<br />
and productizing energy and material efficiency<br />
service concepts and applications<br />
streng<strong>the</strong>n Finland’s role in global competition.<br />
Design<br />
Finland is known <strong>for</strong> its designers and design industry.<br />
New devices and appliances come to market<br />
in ever increasing pace. New models follow<br />
<strong>the</strong> previous ones in a few months’ time, demand<br />
<strong>for</strong> new designs and attractive products is increasing.<br />
Finland could generate a growing business of<br />
design services and concepts on global market.<br />
Small-scale energy production<br />
applications<br />
Finland is sparsely populated country in cold climate<br />
zone. Development of energy production<br />
systems in remote areas has been a necessity. The<br />
technology has been developed alongside with<br />
<strong>the</strong> larger-scale applications. Micro-generation<br />
has been developed using different sources of energy,<br />
however, in Finland bioenergy is naturally<br />
<strong>the</strong> most important source. The small-scale appli-<br />
cations suit well in o<strong>the</strong>r environments also and<br />
could make a successful export product on global<br />
market, especially in remote areas.<br />
Recommendations<br />
The main driving <strong>for</strong>ces towards sustainable energy<br />
and material efficient society are <strong>the</strong> climate<br />
change and increasing competition on decreasing<br />
energy supply. The threat of international crisis,<br />
uncertainty of global politics and whe<strong>the</strong>r values<br />
and attitudes support sustainability present new<br />
challenges also. To reach <strong>the</strong> target of successful<br />
and operational society based on material and energy<br />
efficiency <strong>the</strong> following initiatives and actions<br />
are recommended.<br />
R&D and education<br />
Comprehensive education and training on energy<br />
and material efficiency <strong>for</strong> all. The biggest challenges<br />
are in provision of continuing education<br />
and training <strong>for</strong> all working <strong>for</strong>ce including policy<br />
and decision makers, administration, private<br />
and public sector services and industry. Primary<br />
and vocational education is important also, material<br />
and energy efficiency should be integrated in<br />
curricula to produce competence in all sectors of<br />
society. In<strong>for</strong>mation dissemination and behaviour<br />
change training complement <strong>the</strong> specific education<br />
on all levels.<br />
Investing in stronger and more competent <strong>basis</strong> of<br />
basic and applied research in material and energy<br />
efficiency, and capacity building, enables <strong>the</strong> industry<br />
to adapt <strong>the</strong> research results, demonstrate<br />
<strong>the</strong> findings and develop new business opportunities.<br />
Competent capacity of all stakeholders and efficient<br />
R&D&I will support <strong>the</strong> change. Efficient<br />
R&D&I mean open mind, active dialog and flawless<br />
cooperation between universities and research<br />
institutes, government organisations and<br />
<strong>the</strong> industry.<br />
65
Change in values, attitudes and<br />
behaviour<br />
Education and understanding are <strong>the</strong> key elements<br />
to more conscious and sustainable energy<br />
behaviour. Investment in financial and human resources<br />
<strong>for</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation dissemination (means,<br />
channels), advice, and demonstrations is crucial<br />
to achieve results in attitude or behaviour change.<br />
Repetition and continuing, long-perspective<br />
work are <strong>the</strong> central means to bring <strong>the</strong> message<br />
<strong>for</strong>ward. On more concrete level demonstration<br />
of economical benefits of energy and material efficiency<br />
toge<strong>the</strong>r with right targeted messages<br />
bring success in long run.<br />
Indicators and monitoring systems <strong>for</strong><br />
sustainability<br />
Development of indicators suitable to measure<br />
and monitor energy and material efficiency (CO 2,<br />
life-cycle calculations) is important to present <strong>the</strong><br />
results but also to fur<strong>the</strong>r develop <strong>the</strong> current systems.<br />
Monitoring needs to provide easily understandable<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation and positive messages: energy<br />
and material efficiency is inexpensive, easy<br />
and economically beneficial.<br />
Indicators and monitoring methods are essential<br />
to justify <strong>the</strong> investments, benefits and cost-efficiency<br />
of material and energy efficiency actions.<br />
Economical support instruments<br />
Indicators provide in<strong>for</strong>mation in monitoring <strong>the</strong><br />
effect of different support instruments. Legislation,<br />
regulations as well as different incentives<br />
and taxation shall be in line with <strong>the</strong> sustainability<br />
goals. Sustainability supporting taxation<br />
is a powerful tool and fits well as incentive to support<br />
sustainable options. Implementation of CO 2<br />
tax comprehensively on international level calls<br />
<strong>for</strong> international dialog and agreements.<br />
New energy and material efficient technology<br />
and applications should have a priority <strong>for</strong> R&D<br />
66<br />
support and market incentives, e.g. risk financing.<br />
Production and marketing of energy and material<br />
efficient products should have extra support<br />
to lower <strong>the</strong> risk of companies.<br />
Public support, e.g. subvented pricing, <strong>for</strong> public<br />
transport and o<strong>the</strong>r sustainable mobility options<br />
would increase <strong>the</strong>ir attractiveness.<br />
Energy and material efficient technical<br />
solutions<br />
Energy storage and distribution technology and<br />
systems need be developed to avoid losses<br />
through <strong>the</strong> process. Technology needs public<br />
support through, e.g. investment and R&D support.<br />
Regional and local waste recycling, processing<br />
and utilisation systems can be developed<br />
to maximise <strong>the</strong> use of those <strong>for</strong> energy production<br />
and new materials.<br />
New inexpensive technological solutions <strong>for</strong><br />
small-scale production of solar, wind and<br />
bioenergy (biogas, biodiesel) applications could<br />
ensure faster market uptake. Those are important<br />
especially in rural areas. Public transport services<br />
need to be developed to better meet <strong>the</strong> consumers’<br />
and society’s needs.<br />
Strategic will on all levels<br />
Strategic will towards sustainability is <strong>the</strong> core of<br />
<strong>the</strong> development. It must be independent of political<br />
and financial aspects and interests. The strategy<br />
towards energy and material efficient society<br />
must be long-term, continuously updated and developed<br />
and continuing process. Strategic will is<br />
as important on political level as in companies.<br />
Strategic will towards sustainability facilitates<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>basis</strong> (resources and means) <strong>for</strong> development<br />
of education, R&D, in<strong>for</strong>mation dissemination,<br />
development of indicators <strong>for</strong> sustainability, economic<br />
incentives and support <strong>for</strong> developing energy<br />
and material efficient technical solutions.
6 Delphi survey<br />
Alina Pathan and Mikko Syrjänen,<br />
<strong>Gaia</strong> Consulting Ltd<br />
6.1 Survey <strong>the</strong>mes and<br />
respondents<br />
The objective of <strong>the</strong> Delphi-survey was to give an<br />
input to <strong>the</strong> roadmap work by producing a<br />
timeline of possible solutions created by technology<br />
and o<strong>the</strong>r potential innovations. The first<br />
draft set of statements were partly <strong>for</strong>mulated on<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>basis</strong> of previous Japanese Delphi study and<br />
partly modified into and complemented with<br />
statements that emphasized societal aspects more<br />
than technology. The statements were <strong>the</strong>n commented<br />
first within Tekes and after a revision by<br />
<strong>the</strong> panel members. The survey request was sent<br />
to <strong>the</strong> panel members and to <strong>the</strong> email mailing<br />
lists of selected Tekes technology program participants.<br />
The Delphi survey consisted of background and<br />
<strong>the</strong>me specific questions. The respondents were<br />
able to answer to one or more of <strong>the</strong> three <strong>the</strong>mes.<br />
The <strong>the</strong>mes and number of respondents per <strong>the</strong>me<br />
were as follows:<br />
Consumers, media and digital convergence<br />
(48 respondents)<br />
Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare <strong>for</strong> aging<br />
society (42 respondents)<br />
Society based on energy and material<br />
efficiency (46 respondents).<br />
Each <strong>the</strong>me consisted of 3–6 areas presented below,<br />
which included statements related to technological<br />
or o<strong>the</strong>r solutions and <strong>the</strong>ir social application<br />
or impact. For each statement, respondents<br />
were requested to express <strong>the</strong>ir opinion on <strong>the</strong><br />
timing of <strong>the</strong> technical solutions and its social application.<br />
Time of technical realization refers to<br />
<strong>the</strong> time when <strong>the</strong> technology, approach or solu-<br />
tion is ready at technical level. In <strong>the</strong> case of<br />
non-technological innovations this means that<br />
<strong>the</strong> organizational models, processes etc. have<br />
been developed. Time of social application refers<br />
to <strong>the</strong> time when <strong>the</strong> technology or o<strong>the</strong>r solution<br />
is on <strong>the</strong> market and in use as a ready, competitive<br />
product or <strong>the</strong> solutions is o<strong>the</strong>rwise commonly<br />
used. Unless o<strong>the</strong>rwise stated <strong>the</strong> application refers<br />
to <strong>the</strong> use of this technology or solution in<br />
Finland.<br />
In addition to <strong>the</strong> timing of individual statements,<br />
more general questions were asked concerning<br />
<strong>the</strong> respondents’ expertise, <strong>the</strong> relevance of <strong>the</strong><br />
areas covered in <strong>the</strong> survey to Finland as well as<br />
<strong>the</strong> need <strong>for</strong> public policy measures in promoting<br />
<strong>the</strong> solutions and <strong>the</strong>ir application. Each <strong>the</strong>matic<br />
area had 33–39 statements and in addition some<br />
general questions. Results of <strong>the</strong> Delphi-survey<br />
were reported to <strong>the</strong> panel members in a<br />
slideshow <strong>for</strong>m. All of <strong>the</strong> statements and main<br />
figures are presented in Appendix A.<br />
Due to a tight schedule <strong>the</strong>re was only one round<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Delphi survey. Normally <strong>the</strong> Delphi<br />
method is based on several rounds in which <strong>the</strong><br />
results of <strong>the</strong> previous round are given as feedback.<br />
The survey was implemented as a web survey.<br />
In total, 130 persons responded of which<br />
some responded to several <strong>the</strong>mes.<br />
The respondents represented mainly research organizations<br />
and businesses (see figure 6.1).<br />
Nearly 67 % of <strong>the</strong> respondents were aged 41–60,<br />
under 40-year olds were 27 % and over 61-yearolds<br />
were only 6 %. Nearly 84 % of <strong>the</strong> respondents<br />
were men – leaving female respondents to<br />
only 16 %.<br />
67
The structure of <strong>the</strong> report is as follows. Chapters<br />
6.2–6.4 examine <strong>the</strong> Delphi-surveys results according<br />
to each <strong>the</strong>matic area. Solutions, which<br />
will be rapidly or exceptionally slowly socially<br />
applied, are examined. The analysis has been<br />
conducted by sorting statements by time of social<br />
application and by calculating <strong>the</strong> differences between<br />
technical realization and social application.<br />
Chapter 6.5 compares <strong>the</strong> survey results between<br />
different <strong>the</strong>mes.<br />
6.2 Media and ICT<br />
Introduction<br />
The “consumers, media and digital convergence”<br />
<strong>the</strong>me in <strong>the</strong> Delphi survey was divided into three<br />
different areas:<br />
Area 1: Media technology <strong>for</strong> different<br />
use contexts<br />
Area 2: Media convergence and<br />
media industry<br />
Area 3: Technologies to support human<br />
communication.<br />
Area 1 included statements related to different<br />
media technology in various contexts such as at<br />
68<br />
Figure 6.1. Respondent’s background organization (in percentages)<br />
working and home environments, entertainment<br />
and education. Area 2 included statements related<br />
to individually-adapted advertising, readers-produced<br />
newspapers, on-demand TV, electronic<br />
substitutes to traditional alternatives etc.<br />
Area 3 included statements related to better technologies<br />
to support human communication such<br />
as portable devices <strong>for</strong> people with disabilities,<br />
telephones with real-time translation capabilities<br />
and better search technologies.<br />
The number of respondents <strong>for</strong> this <strong>the</strong>me varied<br />
per statement and question but <strong>the</strong> average number<br />
of respondents was 48.<br />
To examine <strong>the</strong> background knowledge and reliability<br />
of <strong>the</strong> statements, respondents were asked<br />
to determine <strong>the</strong>ir expertise in each area (expert<br />
knowledge/good knowledge/everyday knowledge).<br />
The respondents had out of <strong>the</strong> three areas<br />
most expert knowledge in Area 1 (44 %). In Area<br />
2 respondents had mainly good knowledge<br />
(57 %) and less expert knowledge (35 %). In Area<br />
3 <strong>the</strong> level of expertise was partly similar to Area<br />
2buteveryday knowledge based on sources such<br />
as in<strong>for</strong>mation from newspapers was <strong>the</strong> highest<br />
in this area.
Respondents were also asked to determine <strong>the</strong><br />
level of competence, including research and development,<br />
in Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in<br />
<strong>the</strong> world within each area (Figure 6.2). The results<br />
may correlate <strong>the</strong> expertise of <strong>the</strong> respondents,<br />
as Finland’s level of competent was considered<br />
most of all among <strong>the</strong> top in Area 1 (52 %)<br />
but mainly average in Area 2 (44 %) and in Area 3<br />
(55 %). According to <strong>the</strong> respondents, Finland<br />
Area 3: Technologies to support<br />
human communication<br />
Area 2: Media convergence and<br />
media industry<br />
Area 1: Media technology <strong>for</strong><br />
different user contexts<br />
Figure 6.2. Level of competence in Finland<br />
was not particularly leading nor behind in any<br />
area but ra<strong>the</strong>r among <strong>the</strong> top or average.<br />
The respondents were also asked to choose most<br />
important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong><br />
government towards technological realization<br />
and social application of <strong>the</strong> Consumers, media<br />
and digital convergence –<strong>the</strong>me (Figure 6.3).<br />
Over half of <strong>the</strong> respondents considered that <strong>the</strong><br />
0 20 40 60 80 100 %<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat<br />
behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
What are <strong>the</strong> most important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong> government toward technological<br />
realization and social application (if any)? You should choose multiple policy measures.<br />
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 4,9)<br />
Human resources development and<br />
education<br />
Streng<strong>the</strong>ned industry-academicgovernment<br />
and interdisciplinary<br />
collaboration<br />
Technology transfer from o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
countries<br />
Development of R&D infrastructure<br />
Expansion of R&D funding <strong>for</strong> public<br />
research organization and companies<br />
Internationalization of R&D activities<br />
Ralaxation of elimination of relevant<br />
regulations<br />
Tightened or new regulations<br />
Improvement of environment <strong>for</strong><br />
business startups<br />
Support through taxation, subsidies,<br />
and procurement<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Figure 6.3. Government policy measures<br />
50%<br />
45,7%<br />
19,6%<br />
28,3%<br />
30,4%<br />
43,5%<br />
10,9%<br />
2,2%<br />
54,3%<br />
8,7%<br />
6,5%<br />
23<br />
21<br />
9<br />
13<br />
14<br />
20<br />
5<br />
1<br />
25<br />
4<br />
3<br />
69
government should improve environment <strong>for</strong><br />
business startups (54 %) as well as human resources<br />
development and education (50 %).<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r important policy measures were considered<br />
to be streng<strong>the</strong>ning industry-academic government<br />
and interdisciplinary collaboration (46<br />
%) and internationalization of R&D activities (44<br />
%). Tightened or new regulations of support<br />
through taxation, subsidies and procurement<br />
were not considered relevant policy measures <strong>for</strong><br />
this <strong>the</strong>me.<br />
Statements<br />
This chapter examines main statements, which<br />
can be implemented in a short period of time or<br />
which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.<br />
Additionally statements, which have<br />
had a short and long gap between technical realization<br />
and social application, are examined. The<br />
focus is on medians but dispersions are also<br />
partly examined.<br />
Systems capable of identifying online content<br />
harmful to young people was a statement, which<br />
was considered to be soonest socially applied<br />
(2010). O<strong>the</strong>r statements which were considered<br />
to be implemented and socially applied within <strong>the</strong><br />
next 5 years were media devices at home, which<br />
can be controlled through single user interface<br />
(2012) and a widely application of different 2 D<br />
barcodes of suchlike technologies which can be<br />
read by a mobile phone or o<strong>the</strong>r mobile terminals<br />
(2013).<br />
According to <strong>the</strong> respondents, long-term challenges<br />
were e.g. technologies allowing computers<br />
to electrically and magnetically read in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
in <strong>the</strong> human brain. This was not thought to<br />
be realized be<strong>for</strong>e 2036, which was beyond <strong>the</strong><br />
timeline of <strong>the</strong> focus of <strong>the</strong> Consumers, media<br />
and digital convergence – <strong>the</strong>me. O<strong>the</strong>r bigger issues<br />
with a similar timeline were o<strong>the</strong>r statements<br />
related to <strong>the</strong> human brain such as “Discovery of<br />
a mechanism <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> human brain to directly receive<br />
a greater amount of in<strong>for</strong>mation faster<br />
70<br />
by means of systems o<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> visual (text)<br />
and auditory (sound) systems” and “An external<br />
brain function system that is wearable and operable<br />
through a natural interface and can store general<br />
knowledge like dictionaries as well as a large<br />
amount of personal knowledge, experience, and<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation to extend and enhance <strong>the</strong> brain’s<br />
memory function.”.<br />
Statements, which had a short gap between technical<br />
realization and social application were<br />
among o<strong>the</strong>rs systems capable of identifying online<br />
content harmful to young people (technical<br />
2010, social 2012) and technologies that allow<br />
utilizing networked, but heterogeneous, global<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation sources like an encyclopaedias<br />
(technical 2012, social 2014). Additionally, portable<br />
conservation devices that allow people with<br />
disabilities to convert <strong>the</strong>ir thought into speech<br />
was considered quickly socially applicable after<br />
its technical realization but this was though considered<br />
to be implemented only in 2020-22.<br />
Several statements had a long gap between <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
technical realization and social application. This<br />
means that technology might even be already<br />
available but its wider application among society<br />
takes time. Such cases could be found in each<br />
area. The difference between <strong>the</strong> technical realization<br />
and <strong>the</strong> social application of <strong>the</strong> statement<br />
“Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority<br />
of printed books in fiction” was particularly<br />
significant with a 16 year gap. Respondents did<br />
not also believe that half of working people<br />
would work remotely from home or o<strong>the</strong>r places<br />
using virtual technologies in <strong>the</strong> coming years despite<br />
that <strong>the</strong> median of its technical realization is<br />
2010. Respondents considered its social application<br />
to realize only 10 years later. Ano<strong>the</strong>r case of<br />
slow social application compared to its possibility<br />
of technical realization is artificial intelligence<br />
chips, which would be capable of understanding<br />
human feelings from facial expression.<br />
According to respondents, its technical realization<br />
could be possible in 2014 but social realization<br />
not until 2022.
M3.13 A system capable of identifying <strong>the</strong> online<br />
content harmful to young people and<br />
automatically checking it.<br />
M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled<br />
through single user interface.<br />
M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read<br />
by a mobile phone or o<strong>the</strong>r mobile terminal,<br />
are widely used in different applications.<br />
M2.2 In such fields as art, <strong>the</strong>ater, cinema, music, and<br />
literature, <strong>the</strong>re are artistic activities whose viability is<br />
threatened due to a very small consumer population.<br />
Such small-scale artistic activities can be made<br />
economically viable not by increasing<br />
M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find<br />
<strong>the</strong> desired in<strong>for</strong>mation through fuzzy instructions.<br />
M1.10 Educational games are commonly used<br />
<strong>for</strong> supporting learning in primary and<br />
secondary education.<br />
M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked,<br />
but heterogeneous, global in<strong>for</strong>mation sources<br />
(<strong>the</strong> Web, etc.) like an encyclopedia<br />
(including a summarization function of important<br />
items and a question-and-answer mechanism).<br />
M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from<br />
<strong>the</strong> network new in<strong>for</strong>mation and valuable knowledge<br />
with high relevance to <strong>the</strong> specified topic and<br />
presenting <strong>the</strong>m.<br />
M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue<br />
(among 400 largest companies in Finland), that has no<br />
office building and conducts all business operations<br />
over <strong>the</strong> Internet (using e.g. virtual technology).<br />
M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find<br />
<strong>the</strong> desired in<strong>for</strong>mation using instructions given<br />
with sensible, natural language sentences<br />
in everyday use.<br />
M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that<br />
allows searching through and distribution of TV, film,<br />
and music archives of <strong>the</strong> past few years.<br />
M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched<br />
on mobile terminals.<br />
M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with high<br />
realism that enables, with <strong>the</strong> aid of a virtual agent,<br />
participants to sharein<strong>for</strong>mation material and<br />
hold natural-language conversations.<br />
M2.1 In TV and o<strong>the</strong>r broadcasting media, advertising<br />
material can be adapted to individual viewers.<br />
M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy<br />
movies anywhere, anytime by directly projecting<br />
images on <strong>the</strong>ir retinas.<br />
M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely<br />
integrated and half of <strong>the</strong> content in a national<br />
newspaper is produced by <strong>the</strong> readers.<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
Figure 6.4a. Time of social application of <strong>the</strong> statements (red technological realization, blue social<br />
application).<br />
71
72<br />
M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds <strong>the</strong> use<br />
of broadcasting TV.<br />
M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice,<br />
can be integrated in paper based products<br />
and it is possible to produce <strong>the</strong>se in large<br />
amounts quickly.<br />
M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible<br />
(thin and soft) that it can be substituted<br />
<strong>for</strong> newspaper.<br />
M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-tounderstand<br />
story from fragmented facts and knowledge<br />
and show it as a presentation (and can also add<br />
presumably necessary figures and images<br />
when instructed). Automatic system<br />
(expert systems) that subs<br />
M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that<br />
can be used anytime and anywhere and<br />
allows managing personal life and e.g. public services.<br />
M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from home<br />
or o<strong>the</strong>r proper places using virtual technologies that<br />
allow sufficient social contacts with co-workers.<br />
M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that<br />
offer functions such as voice recognition and fuzzy search,<br />
in addition to <strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation agent functions <strong>for</strong><br />
schedule management and access to databases.<br />
M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to<br />
remotely enjoy paintings or music per<strong>for</strong>mances as<br />
if <strong>the</strong>y were actually walking around a gallery,<br />
looking at each painting, or sitting in a concert hall,<br />
listening to a live per<strong>for</strong>mance.<br />
M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be<br />
watched without wearing special glasses<br />
and feeling fatigue in homes.<br />
M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack<br />
with multifunctional paper like-terminal.<br />
M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows<br />
people with disabilities to convert <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
thoughts into speech.<br />
M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of<br />
understanding human feelings<br />
from facial expressions.<br />
M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with<br />
real-time language translation capability.<br />
M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute<br />
majority of printed books in fiction.<br />
M3.3 Technology that allows <strong>the</strong> computer to electrically<br />
and magnetically read <strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation recorded<br />
in <strong>the</strong> human brain.<br />
M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> human brain<br />
to directly receive a greater amount of in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
faster by means of systems o<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> visual (text)<br />
and auditory (sound) systems.<br />
M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable<br />
and operable through a natural interface and can store<br />
general knowledge like dictionaries as well as<br />
a large amount of personal knowledge,experience,<br />
and in<strong>for</strong>mation to extend and enhance <strong>the</strong> brain<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
Figure 6.4b. Time of social application of <strong>the</strong> statements (red technological realization, blue social<br />
application).
6.3 Health<br />
Introduction<br />
The “Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare <strong>for</strong> aging<br />
society” <strong>the</strong>me in <strong>the</strong> Delphi survey was divided<br />
into five different areas:<br />
Area 1: Health promotion & prevention<br />
Area 2: Medicine<br />
Area 3: Medical care <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly<br />
Area 4: Health care system<br />
Area 5: Technologies, environment and<br />
society <strong>for</strong> ambient assisted living<br />
Area 1 included statements related to personal fitness<br />
programs, various methods to diagnose diseases<br />
and disorders as well as nutrition questions.<br />
Area 2 covered statements related to personalized<br />
medicine, drug delivery systems and drugs <strong>for</strong><br />
diseases. Area 3 covered statements related solutions<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly such as nursing-care robots,<br />
stem cell <strong>the</strong>rapies and implanted medical devices.<br />
Area 4 included only four statements and<br />
<strong>the</strong>y included statements related to health services,<br />
care provider organizations/agents and implanted<br />
ID chips. Area 5 covered statement related<br />
to smart homes, technology <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly,<br />
transport systems and work environments.<br />
The number of respondents <strong>for</strong> this <strong>the</strong>me varied<br />
slightly per statement and question but <strong>the</strong> average<br />
and maximum number of respondents to a<br />
single question was 42.<br />
Area 5: Technologies, environment<br />
andsociety <strong>for</strong> ambient<br />
assisted living<br />
Area 4: Health care system<br />
Area 3: Medical care <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> elderly<br />
Area 2: Medicine<br />
Area 1: Health promotion and<br />
prevention<br />
Figure 6.5. Level of competence in Finland<br />
0<br />
20<br />
40<br />
To examine <strong>the</strong> background knowledge and reliability<br />
of <strong>the</strong> statements, respondents were asked<br />
to determine <strong>the</strong>ir expertise in each area. The respondents<br />
had mostly good knowledge in all areas<br />
(40,5–59,5 %). Expert knowledge respondents<br />
had most in Area 4 (35,7 %) and Area 1<br />
(33,3 %). In o<strong>the</strong>r areas less than a third of respondents<br />
had expert knowledge of <strong>the</strong> questions.<br />
The respondents’knowledge was based on everyday<br />
knowledge such as in<strong>for</strong>mation from newspapers<br />
especially in Area 2 (35,7 %), Area 3 (26,8<br />
%) and Area 5 (23,8 %).<br />
Respondents were also asked to determine <strong>the</strong><br />
level of competence, including research and development,<br />
in Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in<br />
<strong>the</strong> world within each area. The respondents considered<br />
Finland’s level of competence to be<br />
mainly average in all areas (Figure 6.5). Finland’s<br />
competence was among <strong>the</strong> top primarily<br />
in Area 1 in which <strong>the</strong> respondent’s also had expertise<br />
knowledge. According to <strong>the</strong> respondents,<br />
Finland was not particularly leading nor<br />
behind in any area but ra<strong>the</strong>r among <strong>the</strong> top or average<br />
in all areas.<br />
The respondents were requested to choose most<br />
important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong><br />
government towards technological realization<br />
and social application of <strong>the</strong> Healthcare and<br />
wellbeing to prepare <strong>for</strong> aging society –<strong>the</strong>me<br />
(figure 6.6). The most important measure according<br />
to <strong>the</strong> respondents is streng<strong>the</strong>ning indus-<br />
60<br />
80<br />
100<br />
%<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat<br />
behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
73
try-academic government and interdisciplinary<br />
collaboration (63 %). O<strong>the</strong>r important policy<br />
measures were considered to be improvement of<br />
environment <strong>for</strong> business startups (46 %), human<br />
resources development and education and interdisciplinary<br />
collaboration (42 %) and internationalization<br />
of R&D activities (42 %). All policy<br />
measures were ra<strong>the</strong>r evenly distributed – only<br />
tightened or new regulations of support through<br />
taxation, subsidies and procurement was not considered<br />
at all as a relevant policy measure <strong>for</strong> this<br />
<strong>the</strong>me.<br />
Statements<br />
This chapter examines main statements, which<br />
can be socially applied in a short period of time or<br />
which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.<br />
Additionally statements, which have<br />
had a short and long gap between technical realization<br />
and social application, are examined. The<br />
focus is on medians but dispersions are also<br />
partly examined.<br />
74<br />
What are <strong>the</strong> most important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong> government towards technological<br />
realization and social application (if any)? You may choose multiple policy measures.<br />
Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 5)<br />
Human resources development and<br />
education<br />
Streng<strong>the</strong>ned industry-academicgovernment<br />
and interdisciplinary<br />
collaboration<br />
Technology transfer from o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
countries<br />
Development of R&D infrastructure<br />
Expansion of R&D funding <strong>for</strong> public<br />
research organization and companies<br />
Internationalization of R&D activities<br />
Ralaxation of elimination of relevant<br />
regulations<br />
Tightened or new regulations<br />
Improvement of environment <strong>for</strong><br />
business startups<br />
Support through taxation, subsidies,<br />
and procurement<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
14 in which a doctor per<strong>for</strong>ms diagnosis over <strong>the</strong> Internet<br />
Figure 6.6. Government policy measures<br />
41,5%<br />
63,4%<br />
26,8%<br />
31,7%<br />
34,1%<br />
41,5%<br />
14,6%<br />
0%<br />
46,3%<br />
34,1%<br />
4,9%<br />
According to <strong>the</strong> respondents <strong>the</strong>re are several<br />
technologies that have already realized and can<br />
be soon applied to society. Such states involved<br />
among o<strong>the</strong>rs public transport systems that support<br />
<strong>the</strong> personal mobility of elderly and disabled<br />
people (social application possible in 2011) as<br />
well as design guidelines and requirements <strong>for</strong><br />
public spaces where anyone can move around<br />
safely and without barriers )social application<br />
possible in 2012). Personalized fitness programs<br />
and centres <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly were considered to be<br />
technologically realized in 20<strong>08</strong> and be widely<br />
socially applied in 2012. Additionally, health services<br />
based on telemedicine services 14 and medical<br />
data obtained at home or at field were considered<br />
to be applied in 2012.<br />
Respondents consider issues such as stem cell<br />
<strong>the</strong>rapies replacing failing organs (technical realization<br />
2021, social application 2030) and regenerative<br />
medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues and<br />
organs to replace damaged and/or failing tissue<br />
and organs (technical realization 2022, social ap-<br />
17<br />
26<br />
11<br />
13<br />
14<br />
17<br />
6<br />
0<br />
19<br />
14<br />
2
W5.6 Public transport systems that support<br />
<strong>the</strong> personal mobility of elderly<br />
and disabled people.<br />
W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and<br />
centres <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly.<br />
W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements <strong>for</strong><br />
public spaces where anyone can move around<br />
safely and without barriers.<br />
W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services<br />
(in which a doctor per<strong>for</strong>ms diagnosis over <strong>the</strong> Internet)<br />
and medical data obtained at home or at field.<br />
W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to improve<br />
mobility and balance, which significantly decrease<br />
<strong>the</strong> accidents caused by slipping, falling etc.<br />
W4.2 Sharing among all care provider<br />
organizations of all relevant<br />
customer & patient data.<br />
W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly, including interactive, networking<br />
and games demanding physical activity.<br />
W1.2 Methods and technologies to<br />
prevent osteoporosis.<br />
W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep<br />
disorders <strong>for</strong> "Healthy sleep".<br />
W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor<br />
each o<strong>the</strong>r's safety and health remotely.<br />
W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.<br />
W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that broker<br />
and organise services <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly.<br />
W5.3 A functioning market that meets <strong>the</strong> needs of<br />
elderly <strong>for</strong> housing arrangements (e.g. LOHAS<br />
(Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) housing,<br />
adaptable houses and apartments etc.)<br />
W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology)<br />
to predict <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>for</strong> life style related diseases<br />
(e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes).<br />
W3.2 Computerized solo or group psycho<strong>the</strong>rapy<br />
systems <strong>for</strong> preventing and treating<br />
mental disorders.<br />
W1.5 Methods to diagnose <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>for</strong><br />
a neurodegenerative disease<br />
(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
Figure 6.7a. Time of social application of <strong>the</strong> statements (red technological realization, blue social<br />
application)<br />
75
76<br />
W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare: Shifting from <strong>the</strong><br />
current reactive diagnosis and treatment approach<br />
to prospective assessment, personal health planning,<br />
and selective individual treatment.<br />
W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can<br />
com<strong>for</strong>tably work fully using <strong>the</strong>ir abilities, and<br />
work support technology <strong>for</strong> constructing<br />
such an environment.<br />
W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.<br />
W2.3 Oral administration of insulin<br />
W3.6 Implanted medical devices <strong>for</strong> incontinency<br />
control (urination control).<br />
W5.2 Technology <strong>for</strong> advanced mobility/ walking support<br />
that can dramatically improve <strong>the</strong> social lives<br />
of elderly and disabled people.<br />
W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly in urban public spaces so that <strong>the</strong>y can<br />
freely and safely move around (based on<br />
ubiquitous computing, integrated sensors<br />
and sensor networks).<br />
W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify<br />
a person e.g. in emergency care.<br />
W5.1 An af<strong>for</strong>dable, accessible, smart home with devices<br />
and robots that assist an elderly person in eating,<br />
bathing, using <strong>the</strong> toilet, and enjoying free time<br />
without help from a caregiver.<br />
W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with sensors enabling<br />
closed loop control e.g. <strong>for</strong> pain, blood pressure<br />
or diabetes management.<br />
W5.5 A driving assistance system <strong>for</strong> people who<br />
have difficulty in driving or are unable to drive<br />
ordinary cars because of age-related problems.<br />
W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered by<br />
bio-energy sources such as body heat or blood flows<br />
(e.g. health condition monitoring and<br />
cardiac pacemaker).<br />
W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer's disease.<br />
W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver in<br />
bathing without making <strong>the</strong> patient feel uncom<strong>for</strong>table<br />
or uneasy. 39 Artificial limbs with sensation.<br />
W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs is based<br />
on a patient’s symptoms, patient’s genetics and<br />
<strong>the</strong> body’s cellular response to drug compounds<br />
(Pharmacogenomics).<br />
W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease<br />
(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).<br />
W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues<br />
and organs to replace damaged and/or failing<br />
tissue and organs.<br />
W3.3 Stem cell <strong>the</strong>rapies to replace<br />
failing organs<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
Figure 6.7b. Time of social application of <strong>the</strong> statements (red technological realization, blue social<br />
application)
plication 2028) to be particularly slowly implemented.<br />
An additional issue to be implemented beyond<br />
2025 was methods to prevent a neurodegenerative<br />
disease such as Dementia or Alzheimer’s,<br />
which was considered to be socially applied<br />
in 2026 (technical realization possible in 2020).<br />
Drugs to cure Alzheimer’s disease was an issue<br />
considered to be quickly socially applied (2023)<br />
as soon as technical realization (2022) is possible.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r so-called “quick fixes” were oral administration<br />
of insulin (technical realization<br />
2016, social application 2018) and computerized<br />
solo or group psycho<strong>the</strong>rapy systems <strong>for</strong> preventing<br />
and treating mental disorders (technical realization<br />
2014, social application 2016).<br />
Issues to be particularly slowly socially applied due<br />
to attitude or o<strong>the</strong>r reasons were among o<strong>the</strong>rs implanted<br />
ID chip to automatically identify a person<br />
e.g. in emergency care (technical realization 2009,<br />
social application 2020) and driving assistance systems<br />
<strong>for</strong> people who have difficulty in driving or are<br />
unable to drive ordinary cars because of age-related<br />
problems (technical realization 2013, social application<br />
2022). Also stem cell <strong>the</strong>rapies replacing<br />
failing organs were not considered by <strong>the</strong> respondents<br />
to be applied until 2030 although its technical<br />
realization is possible in 2021.<br />
6.4 Energy and material efficiency<br />
Introduction<br />
The “Society based on energy and material efficiency”<br />
<strong>the</strong>me in <strong>the</strong> Delphi survey was divided<br />
into five different areas:<br />
Area 1: Housing, spatial planning and<br />
infrastructures<br />
Area 2: Industry, Business, Economy<br />
Area 3: Transport, logistics<br />
Area 4: Material efficiency<br />
Area 5: Food production<br />
Area 6: Energy production<br />
Area 1 included statements related to smart<br />
homes as well as new technologies <strong>for</strong> infrastructure,<br />
housing and spatial planning. Area 2 included<br />
statements related to energy technology,<br />
paperless companies, energy and material consumption.<br />
Area 3 covered statements related to<br />
transportation and transport systems, joint use of<br />
cars as well as use of wind and solar power. Area<br />
4 covered statements related to recyclable materials,<br />
packaging and material balances. Area 5 included<br />
only three relating to food consumption<br />
and production. Area 6 included statements related<br />
to various energy production technologies.<br />
The number of respondents varied per statement<br />
and question but <strong>the</strong> average number of respondents<br />
was 46.<br />
To examine <strong>the</strong> background knowledge and reliability<br />
of <strong>the</strong> statements, respondents were asked<br />
to determine <strong>the</strong>ir expertise in each area.<br />
The Society based on energy and material efficiency-<br />
<strong>the</strong>me differed from <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>mes<br />
from <strong>the</strong> point of view that <strong>the</strong> respondents had<br />
less Expert knowledge than in <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>mes.<br />
Most expert knowledge respondents had in Area<br />
2: Industry, Business, Economy and Area 6: Energy<br />
production but it was still limited to only a<br />
quarter of respondents (25 %). The respondents<br />
had mostly good knowledge in Areas 1–4 (55,4–<br />
64,6 %). Area 5: Food production had only 3<br />
statements and was thus a small area. It was also<br />
an area in which respondents had least knowledge<br />
as 59 % of <strong>the</strong> respondents’in<strong>for</strong>mation was<br />
based on everyday knowledge sources such as<br />
newspapers. In Area 6 <strong>the</strong> respondents’ knowledge<br />
was most evenly distributed (everyday<br />
knowledge 25 %, good knowledge 44 %, expert<br />
knowledge 29 %).<br />
Respondents were also asked to determine <strong>the</strong><br />
level of competence, including research and development,<br />
in Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in<br />
<strong>the</strong> world within each area. The respondents considered<br />
Finland’s level of competence to be<br />
mainly average in areas 1-5 (Figure 6.8). However,<br />
in Area 6: Energy production Finland was<br />
perceived to be specifically among <strong>the</strong> top. According<br />
to <strong>the</strong> respondents, Finland was not particularly<br />
leading nor behind in any areas.<br />
The respondents were requested to choose most<br />
important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong><br />
77
government towards technological realization<br />
and social application of <strong>the</strong> Society based on energy<br />
and material efficiency –<strong>the</strong>me (Figure 6.9).<br />
The most important measure according to <strong>the</strong> respondents<br />
is supporting through taxation, subsidies,<br />
and procurement (49 %). O<strong>the</strong>r important<br />
policy measures were considered to be human resources<br />
development and educations (45 %), hu-<br />
78<br />
Area 6: Energy production<br />
Area 5: Food production<br />
Area 4: Material efficiency<br />
Area 3: Transport, logistics<br />
Area 2: Industry, business, economy<br />
Area 1: Housing, spatial planning<br />
and infrastructures<br />
Figure 6.8. Level of competence in Finland<br />
0 20 40 60 80 100%<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat<br />
behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
What are <strong>the</strong> most important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong> government toward technological<br />
realization and social application (if any)? You should choose multiple policy measures.<br />
Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 5,6)<br />
Human resources development and<br />
education<br />
Streng<strong>the</strong>ned industry-academicgovernment<br />
and interdisciplinary<br />
collaboration<br />
Technology transfer from o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
countries<br />
Development of R&D infrastructure<br />
Expansion of R&D funding <strong>for</strong> public<br />
research organization and companies<br />
Internationalization of R&D activities<br />
Ralaxation of elimination of relevant<br />
regulations<br />
Tightened or new regulations<br />
Improvement of environment <strong>for</strong><br />
business startups<br />
Support through taxation, subsidies,<br />
and procurement<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Figure 6.9. Government policy measures<br />
44,9%<br />
40,8%<br />
18,4%<br />
36,7%<br />
42,9%<br />
26,5%<br />
2%<br />
42,9%<br />
34,7%<br />
49%<br />
4,1%<br />
man resources development and education (43<br />
%) as well as expansion of R&D funding <strong>for</strong> public<br />
research organization and companies (43 %).<br />
Most important policy measures <strong>for</strong> this <strong>the</strong>me<br />
were measures considered least important in<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>mes. This represents <strong>the</strong> challenges of<br />
advancing energy and material efficiency issues<br />
and thus regulating policy measures are needed.<br />
22<br />
20<br />
9<br />
18<br />
21<br />
13<br />
1<br />
12<br />
17<br />
24<br />
2
Statements<br />
This chapter examines main statements, which<br />
can be implemented in a short period of time or<br />
which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.<br />
Additionally statements, which have<br />
had a short and long gap between technical realization<br />
and social application, are examined. The<br />
focus is on medians but dispersions are also<br />
partly examined.<br />
The “Society based on energy and material efficiency”<br />
<strong>the</strong>me’s statements had significant differences<br />
between technical realization and social<br />
application in addition to an overall late social application<br />
of <strong>the</strong> statements.<br />
According to <strong>the</strong> respondents, solutions to be socially<br />
applied in a relatively short perspective were<br />
design schemes <strong>for</strong> civil engineering structures<br />
and buildings that adopts <strong>the</strong> concept of life cycle<br />
assessment (LCA) (technical realization 2011, social<br />
application 2014) and technology <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> early<br />
detection of and response to large-scale <strong>for</strong>est fires<br />
around <strong>the</strong> world (technical realization 2012, social<br />
application 2015). Additionally, application of<br />
prediction and assessment technologies and processes<br />
in planning that are useful <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
minimization of environmental burdens on spatial<br />
planning were considered to be socially applied<br />
relatively soon (technical realization 2010, social<br />
application 2015).<br />
Issues that will be socially applied in a considerably<br />
long time perspective were partly attitude-related<br />
and partly technology-related. Nuclear fusion<br />
electric power generation was considered to<br />
be a major technological challenge as its technological<br />
realization is according to <strong>the</strong> respondents<br />
not possible until 2033 and social application not<br />
possible be<strong>for</strong>e 2036. O<strong>the</strong>r technologically challenging<br />
solutions, which thus postpone social application<br />
were hydrogen production processes<br />
based on solar heat, <strong>the</strong>rmochemical method using<br />
nuclear heat or o<strong>the</strong>r environmentally viable technology<br />
(technical realization 2023, social application<br />
2030) and <strong>the</strong> use of wind and solar power in<br />
ships (technical realization 2021, social application<br />
2030).<br />
<strong>Social</strong> application of food consisting mainly of<br />
vegetables, which reduces significantly environmental<br />
impacts like green house gas emissions,<br />
represented a significant challenge in consumer<br />
behaviour. This statement also had <strong>the</strong> longest<br />
gap between technical realization and social application.<br />
Technical realization was considered to<br />
be possible in 2013 but social application not be<strong>for</strong>e<br />
2032. This can be potentially explained by<br />
<strong>the</strong> fact that 87 % of <strong>the</strong> respondents in this <strong>the</strong>me<br />
were men 15 . Ano<strong>the</strong>r attitude-related challenge<br />
was <strong>the</strong> use of car sharing and o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>for</strong>ms of joint<br />
use of cars that are widely used in large cities<br />
(technical realization 2007, social application<br />
2021). Respondents also considered that <strong>the</strong> social<br />
application of half of working people to work<br />
remotely from home or o<strong>the</strong>r proper places using<br />
virtual technologies would not occur be<strong>for</strong>e<br />
2028.<br />
Issues to be implemented ra<strong>the</strong>r rapidly were<br />
above mentioned technology <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> early detection<br />
of and response to large-scale <strong>for</strong>est fires<br />
around <strong>the</strong> world and design schemes <strong>for</strong> civil engineering<br />
structures, and buildings that adopts<br />
<strong>the</strong> concept of life cycle assessment (LCA). Respondents<br />
also considered that <strong>the</strong> implementation<br />
of LED-technology as <strong>the</strong> leading technology<br />
<strong>for</strong> lightning in homes, offices etc. could occur<br />
in 2015 (technical realization 2012).<br />
15 See e.g. “Why Women Live Longer than Men”: http://www.ncahs.nsw.gov.au/men/index.php?pageid=922&siteid=191<br />
79
80<br />
E1.3 A design scheme <strong>for</strong> civil engineering structures and<br />
buildings that adopts <strong>the</strong> concept of<br />
ife cycle assessment (LCA).<br />
E1.10 Technology <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> early detection of and response<br />
to large-scale <strong>for</strong>est fires around <strong>the</strong> world.<br />
E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment technologies<br />
and processes in planning that are useful <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> minimization<br />
of environmental burdens on spatial planning.<br />
E1.5 LED-technology is <strong>the</strong> leading technology <strong>for</strong><br />
lightning in homes, offices etc.<br />
E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering companies<br />
(ESCO and MASCO) are commonly used in developing<br />
energy and material efficiency in industries, o<strong>the</strong>r business<br />
and public entities.<br />
E4.6 All products include in<strong>for</strong>mative description covering<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation about production, material balances<br />
and emissions levels.<br />
E4.2 Methodology <strong>for</strong> tracing and identifying materials<br />
suitable <strong>for</strong> recycling (plastics and metals).<br />
E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which electronics,<br />
media, and internet are seamlessly connected, and <strong>the</strong><br />
system controls and optimises also lightning and temperature<br />
taking into account circumstances and need.<br />
E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and<br />
sustainability is raising and this leads to significant changes<br />
in energy consumption, energy production and energy and<br />
material saving through consumer choices and market demand.<br />
E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes <strong>for</strong><br />
SF6 gas (sulfur hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating, and<br />
arc quenching in electrical equipment), which has been<br />
additionally listed as a regulated substance by <strong>the</strong><br />
E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological solutions<br />
reduce energy onsumption per capita in new housing areas<br />
(including heating, lightning, appliances, local transport of goods<br />
and people, etc.) in Finland by half.<br />
E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers buy<br />
services or lease or lend durables instead of<br />
purchasing material products.<br />
E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly based<br />
on reuse systems.<br />
E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.<br />
E2.5 Most companies and public organisations, regardless<br />
of size, go paperless and improve productivity as well as<br />
energy and material efficiency through <strong>the</strong> digitization.<br />
E2.8 Manufacturers' responsibility (producer responsibility)<br />
<strong>for</strong> collecting and processing of discarded products is defined<br />
by law, and reuse and recycling systems in which more than<br />
90% of used material is reused or recycled become<br />
E3.1 The need <strong>for</strong> transportation of material and people is<br />
significantly decreased by <strong>the</strong> use of IT<br />
(like traffic demand management systems).<br />
E3.5 Car sharing and o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>for</strong>ms of joint use of cars<br />
are widely used in large cities.<br />
E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic<br />
elements based on biotechnology.<br />
E1.8 New technology related to use of water (e.g. low water<br />
or waterless cleaning clo<strong>the</strong>s, dish washing etc.) and in waste<br />
water systems lead to a significant reduction in <strong>the</strong> amount<br />
of waste water (prevention of waste water as a guiding<br />
E3.4 Common distribution systems across urban areas that<br />
reduce <strong>the</strong> urban traffic needs stemming from an increased<br />
volume of small-package deliveries due to <strong>the</strong> proliferation<br />
of e-commerce.<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
Figure 6.10a. Time of social application of <strong>the</strong> statements (red technological realization, blue social<br />
application)
E1.9 In <strong>the</strong> dense housing areas transportation of<br />
<strong>the</strong> recyclables and disposable wastes are<br />
organized by so called central vacuum<br />
waste sorting/transpartion system.<br />
E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle feed<br />
or compost by efficient small scale plants (micro<br />
cogeneration in households etc.) that use local biomaterial<br />
like household and garden waste, weeds etc.<br />
E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is replaced<br />
by public transportation, walking and cycling, that are<br />
made attractive e.g. by new innovations in in<strong>for</strong>mation,<br />
com<strong>for</strong>t, traffic safety etc.<br />
E6.6 Formation of international consensus on <strong>the</strong> CO2<br />
storage in oil and gas fields and<br />
brine-filled <strong>for</strong>mations.<br />
E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling<br />
to be per<strong>for</strong>med locally by each house or household to<br />
eliminate emissions and <strong>the</strong> need <strong>for</strong> collection.<br />
E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large extent<br />
based on eco efficient processes like fermentation<br />
and drying by solar energy.<br />
E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible<br />
(thin and soft) that it can be substituted<br />
<strong>for</strong> newspaper.<br />
E5.3 Majority of <strong>the</strong> food consumption is produced locally<br />
(near-production) and energy and material efficiency<br />
in <strong>the</strong> production and logistic chain is reduced.<br />
E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings<br />
through a major industrial plant downsizing<br />
(1/ 2 to 1/ 10 of current size) or a dramatic improvement<br />
in plant serviceability by introducing modules in workflows,<br />
recombining modules, and constructing<br />
E6.3 Fuel cells <strong>for</strong> medium- and large-scale<br />
electricity generation.<br />
E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport systems are<br />
widely used (automobiles, ships, etc.)<br />
E2.1 Motors and o<strong>the</strong>r industrial electric power apparatuses<br />
utilize high-temperature superconductivity.<br />
E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric<br />
power generation in areas that have electricity<br />
distribution network.<br />
E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from home<br />
or o<strong>the</strong>r proper places using virtual technologies that allow<br />
sufficient social contacts with co-workers.<br />
E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production<br />
processes by means of large-scale energy storage system<br />
(superconductivity technology, a flywheel, a capacitor, etc.)<br />
E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.<br />
E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar heat,<br />
<strong>the</strong>rmochemical method using nuclear heat or o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
environmentally viable technology.<br />
E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and this<br />
reduces significantly environmental impacts like<br />
green house gas emissions.<br />
E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
Figure 6.10b. Time of social application of <strong>the</strong> statements (red technological realization, blue social<br />
application)<br />
81
6.5 Comparison of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>mes<br />
This chapter presents briefly some comparisons<br />
between <strong>the</strong> three <strong>the</strong>mes focusing especially on<br />
differences among social application of <strong>the</strong> statements<br />
and policy measures.<br />
Out of <strong>the</strong> three <strong>the</strong>mes, time of social application<br />
of <strong>the</strong> statements of <strong>the</strong> Healthcare and wellbeing<br />
to prepare <strong>for</strong> aging society –<strong>the</strong>me was assessed<br />
to be most rapid. Within this area <strong>the</strong>re were also<br />
<strong>the</strong> shortest gaps between technical realization and<br />
social application. Attitude-related statements and<br />
challenging solutions <strong>for</strong> certain diseases and<br />
medication <strong>for</strong>med <strong>the</strong> major reasons <strong>for</strong> social<br />
application to be prolonged. <strong>Social</strong> application of<br />
<strong>the</strong> statements of <strong>the</strong> Consumers, media and digital<br />
convergence –<strong>the</strong>me was generally slower than<br />
<strong>the</strong> healthcare <strong>the</strong>me but significantly quicker than<br />
<strong>the</strong> Society based on energy and material efficiency<br />
– <strong>the</strong>me. Certain issues in <strong>the</strong> Consumers,<br />
media and digital convergence were technological<br />
challenges and some attitude and societal challenges.<br />
Society based on energy and material efficiency<br />
– <strong>the</strong>me was <strong>the</strong> most challenging <strong>the</strong>me<br />
both from <strong>the</strong> technical realization perspective as<br />
well as social application. According to <strong>the</strong> respondents,<br />
most statements will take a long period<br />
of time to be implemented.<br />
82<br />
Due to <strong>the</strong> problematic nature of energy and material<br />
efficiency, policy measures needed to be<br />
taken concerning <strong>the</strong> Society based on energy<br />
and material efficiency –<strong>the</strong>me differed substantially<br />
from <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r two <strong>the</strong>mes. Where <strong>the</strong> respondents<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> media and healthcare <strong>the</strong>me<br />
considered tightened or new regulations as <strong>the</strong><br />
least important measure, it was among <strong>the</strong> most<br />
important to <strong>the</strong> energy <strong>the</strong>me. In addition, support<br />
through taxation, subsidies and procurement<br />
was <strong>the</strong> most important policy measure <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
energy <strong>the</strong>me but which was less emphasized in<br />
<strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>mes. In fact, <strong>the</strong> respondents <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
media and healthcare <strong>the</strong>me valued <strong>the</strong> same policy<br />
measures as most important but in a different<br />
order. Human resource development, streng<strong>the</strong>ning<br />
of industry-academic government, internationalization<br />
of R&D activities and improvement<br />
of environment <strong>for</strong> business startups were <strong>the</strong><br />
most important policy measures <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>se two<br />
<strong>the</strong>mes. Human resources development and education<br />
was also <strong>the</strong> second most important measure<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> energy <strong>the</strong>me. Expansion of R&D<br />
funding <strong>for</strong> public research organizations was<br />
also a more important policy measure <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> energy<br />
<strong>the</strong>mes than <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>mes.
7 Cross-<strong>the</strong>matic innovation potential<br />
Mari Hjelt and Mikko Syrjänen,<br />
<strong>Gaia</strong> Consulting Ltd<br />
7.1 Background and structure<br />
During <strong>the</strong> panel process it was recognized that<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>matic panels worked with several closely<br />
linked issues. After completing <strong>the</strong> panel workshops,<br />
<strong>the</strong> chairmen of <strong>the</strong> panels met and decided<br />
that an additional workshop <strong>for</strong> examining<br />
cross-cutting issues would be a useful addition to<br />
<strong>the</strong> process. A half day workshop with <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
chairmen and Tekes representatives was thus organized.<br />
The workshop aimed to<br />
identify <strong>the</strong> main cross-<strong>the</strong>matic issues and<br />
work with a tentative road-map on selected<br />
cross-cutting issues.<br />
The workshop focused on <strong>the</strong> issues that have<br />
links to all of <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>mes or to some of <strong>the</strong>m (see<br />
Figure 7.1). The time <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> discussion was relatively<br />
short and <strong>the</strong> participants aimed to avoid issues<br />
that were already well covered in <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
reports. The work proceeded in three steps:<br />
1. Open discussion to present <strong>the</strong> panel results<br />
and identify cross-<strong>the</strong>matic issues<br />
2. Prioritization of few major issues<br />
Energy and<br />
material efficiency<br />
Energy and<br />
media<br />
Energy and<br />
wellbeing<br />
Common <strong>for</strong><br />
all<br />
Consumers,<br />
media and digital<br />
convergence<br />
3. Defining a tentative road-map <strong>for</strong> each major<br />
issue following <strong>the</strong> same road-map structure<br />
<strong>the</strong> panels had used.<br />
7.2 Cross-<strong>the</strong>matic challenges<br />
and issues<br />
Cross-cutting issues were identified based on a<br />
joint discussion. The participants had had an opportunity<br />
to read <strong>the</strong> panel reports be<strong>for</strong>ehand<br />
and <strong>the</strong> reports were also shortly presented in <strong>the</strong><br />
workshop. After that <strong>the</strong> group discussed <strong>the</strong> observations<br />
of <strong>the</strong> linkages between <strong>the</strong> issues and<br />
grouped different issues on <strong>the</strong> wall as a map following<br />
<strong>the</strong> framework presented in Figure 7.1. A<br />
simplified overview of <strong>the</strong> results is presented in<br />
Figure 7.2 and described in more detail in <strong>the</strong> following.<br />
Overall, <strong>the</strong> consumer perspective received more<br />
attention in <strong>the</strong> discussion than <strong>the</strong> industry perspective.<br />
There are few reasons <strong>for</strong> this. First,<br />
both <strong>the</strong> wellbeing panel, and <strong>the</strong> consumer, media<br />
and digital convergence panel had a strong<br />
Wellbeing and<br />
media<br />
Wellbeing and<br />
aging<br />
Figure 7.1. Framework <strong>for</strong> positioning cross-<strong>the</strong>matic issues<br />
83
emphasis on consumers and individuals creating<br />
future opportunities. Also, <strong>the</strong> energy and material<br />
efficient society panel largely had discussed<br />
<strong>the</strong> future challenges from a consumer perspective<br />
emphasizing <strong>the</strong> role of changing values and<br />
attitudes. Second, all <strong>the</strong> panels shared a view<br />
that many of <strong>the</strong> important future trends and uncertainties<br />
are linked to <strong>the</strong> way how <strong>the</strong> societal<br />
attitudes develop in <strong>the</strong> future. Indeed, one of <strong>the</strong><br />
major <strong>the</strong>mes in <strong>the</strong> cross-cutting discussion was<br />
a debate whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> future societal values will<br />
emphasize individualism or collectivism. Third,<br />
<strong>the</strong> consumer perspective also got more attention<br />
because throughout <strong>the</strong> panels <strong>the</strong> role of <strong>the</strong> services<br />
and increased consumer wealth were seen<br />
as <strong>the</strong> major future drivers <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> economy. Finland<br />
also faces major challenges in <strong>the</strong> future especially<br />
in <strong>the</strong> service sector.<br />
In addition to <strong>the</strong> discussion whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> future<br />
societal values and attitudes will emphasize individualism<br />
or collectivism, <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r major drivers<br />
identified as relevant trends linking <strong>the</strong> panel<br />
<strong>the</strong>mes were <strong>the</strong> following:<br />
Patterns in <strong>the</strong> use of time and leisure activities.<br />
How will people allocate <strong>the</strong>ir time if<br />
<strong>the</strong>re is more flexibility, e.g., in working<br />
hours? Will <strong>the</strong>y use <strong>the</strong>ir time in ways that<br />
consume a lot of energy and materials? Will<br />
84<br />
Energy and<br />
material efficiency<br />
Individualism<br />
collectivism<br />
Climate<br />
change<br />
Logistics<br />
Net<br />
communities<br />
Mobility<br />
Use of time<br />
Smart living<br />
Tourism<br />
Services<br />
Consumers<br />
media and digital<br />
convergence<br />
Preventive<br />
actions<br />
Good physical<br />
condition<br />
Figure 7.2. An overview of <strong>the</strong> main cross-<strong>the</strong>matic issues<br />
Wellbeing and<br />
aging<br />
Use of free<br />
time<br />
<strong>the</strong>y sit next to different media or will <strong>the</strong>y invest<br />
<strong>the</strong> time on sports and wellbeing?<br />
Increased role of ICT cross-cutting all societal<br />
<strong>the</strong>mes. It was agreed that definitely <strong>the</strong><br />
role of ICT and different media channels in our<br />
everyday lives will increase. Home entertainment<br />
solutions, ubiquitous environments and<br />
continuous net presence will open up new opportunities<br />
and solutions relevant <strong>for</strong> all <strong>the</strong><br />
panel <strong>the</strong>mes as well as challenges (e.g., use of<br />
energy will increase due to an increased<br />
amount of electronic equipment surrounding<br />
us, low mobility and low physical activity level<br />
might drop to a level that will create large societal<br />
health problems).<br />
Net communities. What will be <strong>the</strong> role of<br />
emerging net communities shaping our societies<br />
and behavior? How much will <strong>the</strong> individuals<br />
take control over <strong>the</strong>ir own media usage and activity<br />
and how much will <strong>the</strong>re be different<br />
agents taking control over personal media usage.<br />
Attitudes towards preventive actions will be<br />
very important both <strong>for</strong> wellbeing and <strong>for</strong> environmental<br />
<strong>the</strong>mes. The participants discussed<br />
whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> individuals have an interest <strong>for</strong><br />
making choices beneficial <strong>for</strong> future generation<br />
or even <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>mselves on <strong>the</strong> longer run<br />
(i.e., avoiding obesity) or whe<strong>the</strong>r individuals<br />
now and in <strong>the</strong> future have interest only on issues<br />
close oneself in <strong>the</strong> short run.
Increased costs of energy and materials and<br />
climate change were named as <strong>the</strong> major<br />
trends that will greatly affect <strong>the</strong> societies in<br />
<strong>the</strong> future. Also aging was recognized as one<br />
of <strong>the</strong> major drivers that will create <strong>the</strong> opportunities<br />
<strong>for</strong> Finland.<br />
Major issues identified as <strong>the</strong> most important<br />
cross-cutting topics can be grouped under <strong>the</strong> following<br />
titles and <strong>the</strong>mes. These <strong>the</strong>mes and <strong>the</strong>se<br />
conclusions were produced through few separate<br />
discussion steps.<br />
1. Smart and sustainable living<br />
environments<br />
Finnish building infrastructure will face a large<br />
renovation and re-building boom as <strong>the</strong> building<br />
generation from <strong>the</strong> first urbanization period after<br />
WWII is getting old. At <strong>the</strong> same time <strong>the</strong>re is a<br />
need <strong>for</strong> housing suitable <strong>for</strong> aging population.<br />
This situation creates a great opportunity to build<br />
living concepts that take into account both needs<br />
of aging people as well as <strong>the</strong> energy and material<br />
efficiency. The export opportunities <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>se solutions<br />
are also very good. The participants particularly<br />
emphasized <strong>the</strong> role of increasing Russian<br />
markets. Finnish building cluster is taking a<br />
step ahead to use this opportunity, but it will be a<br />
challenge. The specific issues discussed under<br />
this topic were <strong>the</strong> following.<br />
Flexibility and adaptability are <strong>the</strong> main characteristics<br />
of future buildings and environments.<br />
Aim is to increase <strong>the</strong> life cycle of<br />
buildings.<br />
Home ICT is at <strong>the</strong> edge of big changes. Monitoring<br />
and continuous network connections<br />
open up new opportunities (easy communication<br />
with personal networks from your home,<br />
net communities <strong>for</strong> social interaction from<br />
home, increased interaction with <strong>the</strong> surrounding<br />
environment through monitoring)<br />
Home entertainment solutions emphasizing<br />
physical exercise may gain momentum.<br />
“Functional Games” boom may emerge soon.<br />
Smart home solutions – monitoring and automation<br />
enable new energy and resource man-<br />
agement solutions. The solutions may bring<br />
<strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation visible and easily accessible<br />
(consumers have a strong control over <strong>the</strong><br />
management and see effects of <strong>the</strong>ir actions)<br />
and/or intelligent agents take care of optimization.<br />
Home is only one module of <strong>the</strong> living environment.<br />
Decisions and changes in spatial planning<br />
as a whole will be a major issue.<br />
2. Mobility<br />
Generally <strong>the</strong> participants shared a view that <strong>the</strong><br />
mobility of people will decrease in <strong>the</strong> future. The<br />
main driver <strong>for</strong> this argument is <strong>the</strong> increased price<br />
of energy and costs of mobility. The ICT solutions<br />
also enable <strong>the</strong> communication and completion of<br />
different functions through o<strong>the</strong>r means than by<br />
face-to-face meetings. However, it was also<br />
stressed that <strong>the</strong>re is great uncertainty of <strong>the</strong> connection<br />
between ICT and mobility. The research<br />
results are in contradiction whe<strong>the</strong>r ICT and increased<br />
use media technologies are going to increase<br />
or decrease mobility. Mobility is also one of<br />
<strong>the</strong> key <strong>the</strong>mes <strong>for</strong> aging society. Some of <strong>the</strong> activities<br />
and functions can be covered by ICT solutions<br />
but not all. The capability of <strong>the</strong> aging population<br />
to move <strong>the</strong>mselves is one <strong>the</strong> key issues.<br />
General issues discussed were <strong>the</strong> following.<br />
Changing time use patterns and <strong>the</strong> ways how<br />
people will organize <strong>the</strong>ir work and leisure<br />
time will affect a lot this issue. Division of activities<br />
to “staying in on place” and “being on<br />
<strong>the</strong> move” will become on one hand more important<br />
and on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand this division will<br />
get blurred. Net presence will become a normal<br />
way of interaction.<br />
If people move around less, <strong>the</strong> “village” societies<br />
will get stronger. Net will provide an important<br />
“window to outside world” and will be<br />
very important part of normal life. There will<br />
be more net communities having an important<br />
role.<br />
No-car-societies will emerge. Mobility <strong>the</strong>me<br />
is strongly linked with smart living concept<br />
and spatial urban planning.<br />
85
3. Service business<br />
Service business was identified as one of <strong>the</strong> main<br />
cross-cutting opportunity and challenge <strong>for</strong> all of<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>mes. The following discussion items<br />
linked to <strong>the</strong> services.<br />
ICT and media tools enable new types of<br />
wellbeing services combining also entertainment<br />
and leisure time needs. These opportunities<br />
are yet unexplored.<br />
Generally aging society will need a variety of<br />
wellbeing and health support services. These<br />
markets will grow.<br />
Net communities will be used actively to also<br />
explore <strong>the</strong> tacit knowledge about aging people<br />
who will actively participate <strong>the</strong>mselves.<br />
Eco-efficiency concepts and media services<br />
will be efficiently combined. Persuasive media<br />
service will direct consumer behavior aiming<br />
to, e.g., reduce energy consumption.<br />
More virtual service production concepts will<br />
emerge.<br />
4. Tourism<br />
Tourism was identified as one cross-cutting opportunity<br />
combining Finnish pure nature ecotourism,<br />
benefits that we get from <strong>the</strong> climate<br />
change, increased health tourism due to wealthy<br />
aging population, and virtual tourism opportunities<br />
offered by ICT tools. Particularly, <strong>the</strong> potential<br />
<strong>for</strong> virtual tourism solutions will increased if<br />
<strong>the</strong> mobility of <strong>the</strong> people will be reduced due to<br />
<strong>the</strong> increases costs and aim <strong>for</strong> energy efficiency.<br />
5. Being in Good Shape<br />
The participants were worried of physical activity<br />
level of <strong>the</strong> generation being now 15 – 35 years<br />
old. In few decades <strong>the</strong>re might be serious national<br />
health problems if this issue is not solved in<br />
<strong>the</strong> short run. This challenge combines all <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>mes from <strong>the</strong> following viewpoints or perspectives.<br />
The public health care costs will explode if this<br />
issue is not taken seriously now and solutions<br />
sought <strong>for</strong>. The solutions to this would also be<br />
major business opportunities on <strong>the</strong> wellbeing<br />
sector.<br />
86<br />
ICT and media tools are both a problem and a<br />
potential solution. ICT may decrease <strong>the</strong> everyday<br />
mobility, reducing <strong>the</strong> normal physical<br />
activity level. The again, <strong>the</strong>re is a big opportunity<br />
to develop new solutions and services that<br />
motivate people to stay in shape (e.g., life span<br />
monitoring of health).<br />
New environmentally friendly and energy efficient<br />
solutions to maintain good personal<br />
physical shape can be developed.<br />
6. Green ICT society<br />
Many of <strong>the</strong> discussed issues were linked to <strong>the</strong><br />
overarching role of ICT in future society and<br />
whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>re is a Finnish opportunity to become<br />
a true Green ICT nation. The following specific<br />
issues on this <strong>the</strong>me were touched.<br />
ICT sector has a big challenge to create energy<br />
efficient solutions which will become more<br />
important when <strong>the</strong> use of <strong>the</strong> ICT is constantly<br />
expanding.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> ICT sector <strong>the</strong> pace of development is<br />
very fast. A challenge is to get <strong>the</strong> slower and<br />
more conservative energy industry cluster to<br />
<strong>the</strong> same speed.<br />
Finnish <strong>for</strong>est cluster is facing big structural<br />
changes. This change should be seen as an opportunity<br />
<strong>for</strong> becoming energy and material efficient<br />
society.<br />
Logistics will generally be a big future challenge.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong> mobility of people might be<br />
decreasing, <strong>the</strong> movement of goods in global logistic<br />
chains most likely will increase. Solutions<br />
to <strong>the</strong>se problems are often ICT based.<br />
7.3 Identified innovation<br />
potential<br />
The next step of <strong>the</strong> work focused on selecting few<br />
issues <strong>for</strong> which a tentative road-map of <strong>the</strong> objectives<br />
and solutions was produced. Be<strong>for</strong>e proceeding<br />
towards <strong>the</strong> brainstorming more detailed solutions,<br />
<strong>the</strong> participants had a general discussion on<br />
<strong>the</strong> relevance of <strong>the</strong> issues <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> future in Finland.<br />
The discussion emphasized <strong>the</strong> consumer perspective,<br />
but at this phase it was stressed that <strong>the</strong>
Finnish economy needs also in <strong>the</strong> future a strong<br />
industry <strong>basis</strong> and viable clusters. Three conditions<br />
were identified as common <strong>for</strong> all <strong>the</strong> issues<br />
and <strong>for</strong> any o<strong>the</strong>r area in which future economic<br />
growth in Finland will be sought <strong>for</strong>.<br />
1. The services and products need to be exported<br />
and <strong>the</strong> aim is to get into <strong>the</strong> global markets.<br />
Even if <strong>the</strong> specific product or service aims to<br />
solve challenges typical <strong>for</strong> Finland and in<br />
Finland, it is attractive <strong>for</strong> economy only if it<br />
also has some market potential abroad.<br />
2. The services and products need to <strong>for</strong>m larger<br />
integrated solutions combining many individual<br />
solutions to provide clear added value.<br />
3. The business partners, subcontractors, and clients<br />
are globally dispersed, but <strong>the</strong> Finnish<br />
companies should aim to be in <strong>the</strong> positions<br />
where <strong>the</strong>y are able to have <strong>the</strong> control over <strong>the</strong><br />
management of <strong>the</strong> product value networks<br />
and distribution channels.<br />
The following three major topics were identified<br />
as <strong>the</strong> most interesting ones <strong>for</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r discussion.<br />
1. Wellbeing services<br />
2. Smart living and smart buildings concepts<br />
3. Mobility management<br />
For each one of <strong>the</strong>se topics <strong>the</strong> participants<br />
worked as pairs to identify <strong>the</strong> main drivers, aim<br />
and solutions. The drivers identified <strong>for</strong> each topic<br />
were <strong>the</strong> same as described earlier. The main aim<br />
and some solutions are described below.<br />
Wellbeing services – Total concept of<br />
healthy living<br />
Vision: Create ”turn-key solutions” <strong>for</strong> healthy<br />
and eco-efficient living environments covering<br />
all aspects of life (could be houses, building<br />
blocks, city areas, cities, regions…)<br />
Solutions:<br />
Integrated planning taking into account transport,<br />
logistics, waste and water management,<br />
ICT infrastructure etc. <strong>for</strong> people in all different<br />
age groups. Special attention paid <strong>for</strong> encouraging<br />
to sport and being active.<br />
Different business segments and different type<br />
of knowledge needs to be integrated. (As an example<br />
a “good sleep hotels” concept was mentioned)<br />
Create living lab –pilots<br />
Instead of vertical networks <strong>the</strong>re needs to be<br />
larger clusters to invest and create integrated solutions<br />
that aim to global markets (e.g. Russian)<br />
Smart living and intelligent buildings<br />
Vision: There are adaptive housing solutions that<br />
promote individual well-being and low consumption<br />
of natural resources<br />
Solutions:<br />
Energy consumption adapts to changing everyday<br />
needs<br />
New spatial planning solutions reduce <strong>the</strong> need<br />
to move<br />
Smart technologies are developed <strong>for</strong> 2 nd<br />
homes and summer cottages – automation and<br />
robotics<br />
Self-diagnostics of housing related issues and<br />
problems are developed – sensors and data<br />
management<br />
New smart materials (nanotechnologies)<br />
Awareness technologies – comparison among<br />
friends and families would be used as a social<br />
incentive<br />
Smart insulation – Finnish know-how to global<br />
markets<br />
Knowledge and promotion of good practices<br />
through media<br />
Integrated home ICT solutions<br />
Energy and building companies as key business<br />
actors – Hybrid solutions <strong>for</strong> home energy<br />
consumption, new service concepts<br />
“Smart renovation”<br />
Mobility management<br />
Vision: Energy consumption due to <strong>the</strong> mobility<br />
of people and goods will remarkably decrease<br />
Solutions:<br />
Car sharing, management of everyday logistics<br />
Management of mobility due to public services<br />
(health care, social services)<br />
87
88<br />
Call on demand -solutions<br />
Use of real-time location data (mobile services,<br />
waiting times etc.)<br />
New generation route planners – more dynamic<br />
and more customer oriented individually<br />
tailored solutions<br />
Distance working and new working time and<br />
work planning solutions<br />
Transport pricing solutions (road tolls, energy<br />
price etc.)<br />
New trusted third party service providers and<br />
facilitators, trusted operators<br />
New solutions – tools and services – <strong>for</strong> collective<br />
mobility<br />
Logistics solutions
Appendix A<br />
Full Delphi survey results<br />
Background questions<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> type of your background organization?<br />
Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 2)<br />
Age<br />
Gender<br />
Business<br />
Research<br />
Public funding agency (e.g.Tekes)<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 1,8)<br />
-40<br />
41–60<br />
61-<br />
Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 1,8)<br />
Female<br />
Male<br />
Number of responds (average)<br />
32,3%<br />
45,4%<br />
16,2%<br />
6,2%<br />
26,9%<br />
66,9%<br />
6,2%<br />
16,2%<br />
83,8%<br />
• Consumers, media and digital convergence (48 respondents)<br />
Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare <strong>for</strong> aging society (42 respondents)<br />
Society based on energy and material efficiency (46 respondents)<br />
42<br />
59<br />
21<br />
8<br />
35<br />
87<br />
8<br />
21<br />
109<br />
89
Consumers, media and digital convergence – introduction<br />
Area 1: Media technology <strong>for</strong> different use contexts<br />
90<br />
Statements<br />
M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue (among 400 largest companies<br />
in Finland), that has no office building and conducts all business operations<br />
over <strong>the</strong> Internet (using e.g. virtual technology).<br />
M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with high realism that enables,<br />
with <strong>the</strong> aid of a virtual agent, participants to share in<strong>for</strong>mation material and hold<br />
natural-language conversations.<br />
M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from home or o<strong>the</strong>r proper<br />
places using virtual technologies that allow sufficient social contacts with<br />
co-workers.<br />
M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy movies anywhere, anytime by<br />
directly projecting images on <strong>the</strong>ir retinas.<br />
M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to remotely enjoy paintings<br />
or music per<strong>for</strong>mances as if <strong>the</strong>y were actually walking around a gallery, looking<br />
at each painting, or sitting in a concert hall, listening to a live per<strong>for</strong>mance.<br />
M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled through single user interface.<br />
M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special<br />
glasses and feeling fatigue in homes.<br />
M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin and soft) that it can be substituted<br />
<strong>for</strong> newspaper.<br />
M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack with multifunctional paper<br />
like-terminal.<br />
M1.10 Educational games are commonly used <strong>for</strong> supporting learning in primary<br />
and secondary education.<br />
M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that can be used anytime and<br />
anywhere and allows managing personal life and e.g. public services.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue...<br />
M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with...<br />
M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from...<br />
M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy...<br />
M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to...<br />
M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled...<br />
M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched...<br />
M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin...<br />
M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack with...<br />
M1.10 Educational games are commonly used <strong>for</strong>...<br />
M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that can...<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 3,2)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
6,3%<br />
29,2%<br />
20,8%<br />
29,2%<br />
14,6%<br />
0%<br />
3<br />
14<br />
10<br />
14<br />
7<br />
0<br />
91
92<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4,2; total: 48)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 4,4; total: 48)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
4,2%<br />
14,6%<br />
39,6%<br />
39,6%<br />
2,1%<br />
0%<br />
4,2%<br />
10,4%<br />
31,2%<br />
54,2%<br />
0%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,6)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
2,1%<br />
52,1%<br />
35,4%<br />
4,2%<br />
6,3%<br />
0%<br />
0<br />
2<br />
7<br />
19<br />
19<br />
1<br />
0<br />
2<br />
5<br />
15<br />
26<br />
0<br />
42<br />
59<br />
21<br />
2<br />
3<br />
0
Area 2: Media convergence and media industry<br />
Statements<br />
M2.1 In TV and o<strong>the</strong>r broadcasting media, advertising material can be adapted to<br />
individual viewers.<br />
M2.2 In such fields as art, <strong>the</strong>ater, cinema, music, and literature, <strong>the</strong>re are artistic<br />
activities whose viability is threatened due to a very small consumer population.<br />
Such small-scale artistic activities can be made economically viable not by increasing<br />
<strong>the</strong><br />
M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely integrated and half of <strong>the</strong><br />
content in a national newspaper is produced by <strong>the</strong> readers.<br />
M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds <strong>the</strong> use of broadcasting TV.<br />
M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched on mobile terminals.<br />
M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that allows searching through<br />
and distribution of TV, film, and music archives of <strong>the</strong> past few years.<br />
M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice, can be integrated in paper based<br />
products and it is possible to produce <strong>the</strong>se in large amounts quickly.<br />
M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority of printed books in fiction.<br />
M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read by a mobile phone or<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r mobile terminal, are widely used in different applications.<br />
93
94<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
M2.1 In TV and o<strong>the</strong>r broadcasting media, advertising material<br />
can be adapted to individual viewers.<br />
M2.2 In such fields as art, <strong>the</strong>ater, cinema, music, and literature,<br />
<strong>the</strong>re are artistic activities whose viability is threatened due to<br />
a very small consumer population. Such small scale...<br />
M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely<br />
!<br />
integrated<br />
and half of <strong>the</strong> content in a national newspaper is produced<br />
by <strong>the</strong> readers.<br />
M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds <strong>the</strong> use of broadcasting TV.<br />
M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched<br />
on mobile terminals.<br />
M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that<br />
allows searching through and distribution of TV, film,<br />
and music archives of <strong>the</strong> past few years.<br />
M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice, can be integrated<br />
in paper based products and it is possible to produce<br />
<strong>the</strong>se in large amounts quickly.<br />
M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority of<br />
printed books in fiction.<br />
M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read by<br />
a mobile phone or o<strong>the</strong>r mobile terminal, are widely<br />
used in different applications.<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 3)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
8,3%<br />
27,1%<br />
29,2%<br />
27,1%<br />
8,3%<br />
0%<br />
4<br />
13<br />
14<br />
13<br />
4<br />
0
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society (avg: 4; total: 48)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland (avg: 4; total: 46)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
8,3%<br />
25%<br />
29,2%<br />
37,5%<br />
0%<br />
0%<br />
6,5%<br />
26,1%<br />
30,4%<br />
37%<br />
0%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,8)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
2,1%<br />
39,6%<br />
43,8%<br />
4,2%<br />
8,3%<br />
2,1%<br />
0<br />
4<br />
12<br />
14<br />
18<br />
0<br />
0<br />
3<br />
12<br />
14<br />
17<br />
1<br />
0<br />
19<br />
21<br />
2<br />
4<br />
1<br />
95
Area 3: Technologies to support human communication<br />
96<br />
Statements<br />
M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that offer functions such<br />
as voice recognition and fuzzy search, in addition to <strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation agent functions<br />
<strong>for</strong> schedule management and access to databases.<br />
M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows people with disabilities to convert<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir thoughts into speech.<br />
M3.3 Technology that allows <strong>the</strong> computer to electrically and magnetically read<br />
<strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation recorded in <strong>the</strong> human brain.<br />
M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> human brain to directly receive a greater<br />
amount of in<strong>for</strong>mation faster by means of systems o<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> visual (text) and<br />
auditory (sound) systems.<br />
M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable and operable through a<br />
natural interface and can store general knowledge like dictionaries as well as a<br />
large amount of personal knowledge, experience, and in<strong>for</strong>mation to extend and<br />
enhance <strong>the</strong> brain’s me<br />
M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with real- time language translation capability.<br />
M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from <strong>the</strong> network new in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
and valuable knowledge with high relevance to <strong>the</strong> specified topic and<br />
presenting <strong>the</strong>m.<br />
M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked, but heterogeneous, global in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
sources (<strong>the</strong> Web, etc.) like an encyclopedia (including a summarization<br />
function of important items and a question- and-answer mechanism).<br />
M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-to-understand story from<br />
fragmented facts and knowledge and show it as a presentation (and can also add<br />
presumably necessary figures and images when instructed).Automatic system<br />
(expert systems) that substitut<br />
M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find <strong>the</strong> desired in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
through fuzzy instructions.<br />
M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find <strong>the</strong> desired in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
using instructions given with sensible, natural language sentences in everyday<br />
use.<br />
M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of understanding human feelings<br />
from facial expressions.<br />
M3.13 A system capable of identifying <strong>the</strong> online content harmful to young people<br />
and automatically checking it.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that offer<br />
functions such as voice recognition and fuzzy search, in addition...<br />
M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows people with<br />
disabilities to convert <strong>the</strong>ir thoughts into speech.<br />
M3.3 Technology that allows <strong>the</strong> computer to electrically and<br />
magnetically read <strong>the</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation recorded in <strong>the</strong> human brain.<br />
M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> human brain to directly<br />
receive a greater amount of in<strong>for</strong>mation faster by means of...<br />
M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable and<br />
operable through a natural interface and can store general...<br />
M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with real-time<br />
language translation capability.<br />
M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from <strong>the</strong> network<br />
new in<strong>for</strong>mation and valuable knowledge with high...<br />
M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked, but heterogeneous,<br />
global in<strong>for</strong>mation sources (<strong>the</strong> Web, etc.) like...<br />
M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-to understand<br />
story from fragmented facts and knowledge and...<br />
M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find<br />
<strong>the</strong> desired in<strong>for</strong>mation through fuzzy instructions.<br />
M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find<br />
<strong>the</strong> desired in<strong>for</strong>mation using instructions given with...<br />
M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of understanding<br />
human feelings from facial expressions.<br />
M3.13 A system capable of identifying <strong>the</strong> online content harmful<br />
to young people and automatically checking it.<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 2,8)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
14,3%<br />
32,7%<br />
24,5%<br />
16,3% 8<br />
12,2%<br />
0%<br />
7<br />
16<br />
12<br />
6<br />
0<br />
97
98<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 48)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 3,9; total: 48)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
2,1%<br />
6,2%<br />
20,8%<br />
52,1%<br />
16,7%<br />
2,1%<br />
2,1%<br />
12,5%<br />
16,7%<br />
31,2%<br />
33,3%<br />
4,2%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 2,9)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
2%<br />
26,5%<br />
55,1%<br />
10,2%<br />
4,1%<br />
2%<br />
1<br />
3<br />
10<br />
25<br />
8<br />
1<br />
1<br />
6<br />
8<br />
15<br />
16<br />
1<br />
2<br />
13<br />
27<br />
5<br />
2<br />
1
Consumers, media and digital convergence<br />
– O<strong>the</strong>r innovations and observations<br />
What are <strong>the</strong> most important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong> government<br />
towards technological realization and social application (if any)?<br />
You may choose multiple policy measures.<br />
Number of question respondents 46 (avg: 4,9)<br />
Human resources development and<br />
education<br />
Streng<strong>the</strong>ned industry-academicgovernment<br />
and interdisciplinary<br />
collaboration<br />
Technology transfer from o<strong>the</strong>r countries<br />
Development of R&D infrastructure<br />
Expansion of R&D funding <strong>for</strong> public<br />
research organization and companies<br />
Internationalization of R&D activitities<br />
Relaxation or elimination of relevant<br />
regulations<br />
Tightened or new regulations<br />
Improvement of environment <strong>for</strong><br />
business startups<br />
Support through taxation, subsidies, and<br />
procurement<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
50% 23<br />
45,7% 21<br />
19,6% 9<br />
28,3% 13<br />
30,4% 14<br />
43,5% 20<br />
10,9% 5<br />
2,2% 1<br />
54,3% 25<br />
8,7% 4<br />
6,5%<br />
3<br />
99
Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare <strong>for</strong> aging society<br />
– introduction<br />
Area 1: Health promotion & prevention<br />
100<br />
Statements<br />
W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare: Shifting from <strong>the</strong> current reactive diagnosis<br />
and treatment approach to prospective assessment, personal health planning,<br />
and selective individual treatment.<br />
W1.2 Methods and technologies to prevent osteoporosis.<br />
W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.<br />
W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology) to predict <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>for</strong> life<br />
style related diseases (e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes).<br />
W1.5 Methods to diagnose <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>for</strong> a neurodegenerative disease (e.g. Dementia<br />
or Alzheimer’s).<br />
W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease (e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer’s).<br />
W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep disorders <strong>for</strong> “Healthy sleep”.<br />
W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and centres <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly.<br />
W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly, including interactive,<br />
networking and games demanding physical activity.<br />
W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to improve mobility and balance,<br />
which significantly decrease <strong>the</strong> accidents caused by slipping, falling etc.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare:Shifting<br />
from <strong>the</strong> current reactive diagnosis<br />
and treatment approach to...<br />
W1.2 Methods and technologies to<br />
prevent osteoporosis.<br />
W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.<br />
W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology)<br />
to predict <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>for</strong> life style related diseases (e.g....<br />
W1.5 Methods to diagnose <strong>the</strong> risk<br />
<strong>for</strong> a neurodegenerative disease<br />
(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).<br />
W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease<br />
(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).<br />
W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep disorders<br />
<strong>for</strong> “Healthy sleep".<br />
W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and<br />
centres <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly.<br />
W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly, including interactive,<br />
networking and games...<br />
W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to<br />
improve mobility and balance, which<br />
significantly decrease <strong>the</strong>...<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 3)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
7,1%<br />
26,2%<br />
33,3%<br />
26,2% 11<br />
7,1%<br />
0%<br />
3<br />
16<br />
14<br />
6<br />
0<br />
101
102<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
Number of question respondents: 42<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 42)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 42)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
4,8%<br />
23,8%<br />
31%<br />
40,5%<br />
0%<br />
0%<br />
14,3%<br />
26,2%<br />
31%<br />
28,6%<br />
0%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,6)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
4,8%<br />
42,9%<br />
40,5%<br />
11,9%<br />
0%<br />
0%<br />
0<br />
2<br />
10<br />
13<br />
17<br />
0<br />
0<br />
6<br />
11<br />
13<br />
12<br />
2<br />
0<br />
18<br />
17<br />
5<br />
0<br />
0
Area 2: Medicine<br />
Statements<br />
W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs is based on a patient’s symptoms,<br />
patient’s genetics and <strong>the</strong> body’s cellular response to drug compounds<br />
(Pharmacogenomics).<br />
W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with sensors enabling closed loop control<br />
e.g. <strong>for</strong> pain, blood pressure or diabetes management.<br />
W2.3 Oral administration of insulin<br />
W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.<br />
W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer’s disease.<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs<br />
is based on a patient’s symptoms,<br />
patient’s genetics...<br />
W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with<br />
sensors enabling closed loop<br />
control e.g. <strong>for</strong> pain, blood...<br />
W2.3 Oral administration of insulin<br />
W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.<br />
W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer's disease.<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,3)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
35,7%<br />
31%<br />
9,5%<br />
14,3%<br />
7,1%<br />
2,4%<br />
15<br />
13<br />
4<br />
6<br />
3<br />
1<br />
103
104<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 41)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 41)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
4,9%<br />
24,4%<br />
39%<br />
17,1%<br />
14,6%<br />
0%<br />
14,6%<br />
29,3%<br />
36,6%<br />
7,3%<br />
12,2%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 3,2)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
29,3%<br />
46,3%<br />
9,8%<br />
4,9%<br />
9,8%<br />
0<br />
4<br />
12<br />
14<br />
18<br />
0<br />
0<br />
6<br />
12<br />
15<br />
0<br />
3<br />
5<br />
12<br />
19<br />
4<br />
2<br />
4
Area 3: Medical care <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly<br />
Statements<br />
W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver in bathing without making<br />
<strong>the</strong> patient feel uncom<strong>for</strong>table or uneasy.39 Artificial limbs with sensation."<br />
W3.2 Computerized solo or group psycho<strong>the</strong>rapy systems <strong>for</strong> preventing and<br />
treating mental disorders.<br />
W3.3 Stem cell <strong>the</strong>rapies to replace failing organs<br />
W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues and organs to replace<br />
damaged and/or failing tissue and organs.<br />
W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered by bio-energy sources such as<br />
body heat or blood flows (e.g. health condition monitoring and cardiac pacemaker).<br />
W3.6 Implanted medical devices <strong>for</strong> incontinency control (urination control).<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver<br />
in bathing without making <strong>the</strong> patient feel...<br />
W3.2 Computerized solo or group psycho<strong>the</strong>rapy<br />
systems <strong>for</strong> preventing and treating<br />
mental disorders.<br />
W3.3 Stem cell <strong>the</strong>rapies to replace failing organs<br />
W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid<br />
tissues and organs to replace damaged and/or...<br />
W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered<br />
by bio-energy sources such as<br />
body heat or blood flows...<br />
W3.6 Implanted medical devices <strong>for</strong> incontinency<br />
control (urination control).<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 2,4)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
26,8%<br />
29,3%<br />
24,4%<br />
17,1%<br />
0%<br />
2,4%<br />
11<br />
12<br />
10<br />
7<br />
0<br />
1<br />
105
106<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
Number of question respondents: 42<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 42)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 42)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0% 0<br />
7,1% 3<br />
21,4% 9<br />
38,1% 16<br />
21,4% 9<br />
11,9% 5<br />
0%<br />
21,4%<br />
19%<br />
31%<br />
14,3%<br />
14,3%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 3,6)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
21,4%<br />
38,1%<br />
19%<br />
2,4%<br />
19%<br />
0<br />
9<br />
8<br />
13<br />
0<br />
9<br />
6<br />
6<br />
16<br />
8<br />
1<br />
8
Area 4: Health care system<br />
Statements<br />
W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services (in which a doctor per<strong>for</strong>ms<br />
diagnosis over <strong>the</strong> Internet) and medical data obtained at home or at field.<br />
W4.2 Sharing among all care provider organizations of all relevant customer &<br />
patient data.<br />
W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify a person e.g. in emergency<br />
care.<br />
W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that broker and organise services <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> elderly.<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services<br />
(in which a doctor per<strong>for</strong>ms diagnosis over <strong>the</strong> Internet)<br />
and medical data obtained at home or at...<br />
W4.2 Sharing among all care provider organizations of<br />
all relevant customer & patient data.<br />
W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify a<br />
person e.g. in emergency care.<br />
W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that<br />
broker and organise services <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly.<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,8)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
11,9%<br />
35,7%<br />
16,7%<br />
28,6%<br />
7,1%<br />
0%<br />
5<br />
15<br />
7<br />
12<br />
3<br />
0<br />
107
1<strong>08</strong><br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
Number of question respondents: 42<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4,2; total: 42)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 42)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
2,4%<br />
23,8%<br />
31%<br />
40,5%<br />
2,4%<br />
0%<br />
7,1%<br />
33,3%<br />
35,7%<br />
21,4%<br />
2,4%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,7)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
2,4%<br />
40,5%<br />
47,6%<br />
7,1%<br />
0%<br />
2,4%<br />
1<br />
17<br />
20<br />
3<br />
0<br />
1<br />
0<br />
1<br />
10<br />
13<br />
17<br />
1<br />
0<br />
9<br />
8<br />
15<br />
9<br />
1
Area 5: Technologies, environment and society <strong>for</strong> ambient assisted living<br />
Statements<br />
W5.1 An af<strong>for</strong>dable, accessible, smart home with devices and robots that assist<br />
an elderly person in eating, bathing, using <strong>the</strong> toilet, and enjoying free time without<br />
help from a caregiver.<br />
W5.2 Technology <strong>for</strong> advanced mobility/ walking support that can dramatically<br />
improve <strong>the</strong> social lives of elderly and disabled people.<br />
W5.3 A functioning market that meets <strong>the</strong> needs of elderly <strong>for</strong> housing arrangements<br />
(e.g. LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) housing, adaptable<br />
houses and apartments etc.)<br />
W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor each o<strong>the</strong>r’s safety and<br />
health remotely.<br />
W5.5 A driving assistance system <strong>for</strong> people who have difficulty in driving or are<br />
unable to drive ordinary cars because of age-related problems.<br />
W5.6 Public transport systems that support <strong>the</strong> personal mobility of elderly and<br />
disabled people.<br />
W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements <strong>for</strong> public spaces where anyone can<br />
move around safely and without barriers.<br />
W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly in urban<br />
public spaces so that <strong>the</strong>y can freely and safely move around (based on ubiquitous<br />
computing, integrated sensors and sensor networks).<br />
W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can com<strong>for</strong>tably work fully<br />
using <strong>the</strong>ir abilities, and work support technology <strong>for</strong> constructing such an environment.<br />
109
110<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
W5.1 An af<strong>for</strong>dable, accessible, smart home with<br />
devices and robots that assist an elderly person in...<br />
W5.2 Technology <strong>for</strong> advanced mobility/ walking<br />
support that can dramatically improve <strong>the</strong> social lives...<br />
W5.3 A functioning market that meets <strong>the</strong> needs of<br />
elderly <strong>for</strong> housing arrangements (e.g. LOHAS...<br />
W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor<br />
each o<strong>the</strong>r's safety and health remotely.<br />
W5.5 A driving assistance system <strong>for</strong> people who have<br />
difficulty in driving or are unable to drive ordinary...<br />
W5.6 Public transport systems that support <strong>the</strong><br />
personal mobility of elderly and disabled people...<br />
W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements <strong>for</strong> public<br />
spaces where anyone can move around safely and...<br />
W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> elderly in urban public spaces so...<br />
W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can<br />
com<strong>for</strong>tably work fully using <strong>the</strong>ir abilities, and work...<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,5)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
23,8%<br />
33,3%<br />
19%<br />
14,3% 6<br />
9,5%<br />
0%<br />
10<br />
14<br />
8<br />
4<br />
0
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4; total: 42)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 4; total: 42)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
2,4%<br />
28,6%<br />
40,5%<br />
23,8%<br />
4,8%<br />
0%<br />
2,4%<br />
35,7%<br />
28,6%<br />
26,2%<br />
7,1%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 3)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
26,8%<br />
56,1%<br />
9,8%<br />
2,4%<br />
4,9%<br />
1<br />
11<br />
23<br />
4<br />
1<br />
2<br />
0<br />
1<br />
12<br />
17<br />
10<br />
2<br />
0<br />
1<br />
15<br />
12<br />
11<br />
3<br />
111
Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare <strong>for</strong> aging society<br />
– O<strong>the</strong>r innovations and observations<br />
112<br />
What are <strong>the</strong> most important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong><br />
government towards technological realization and social application (if any)?<br />
You may choose multiple policy measures.<br />
Number of question respondents 41 (avg: 5)<br />
Human resources development and<br />
education<br />
Streng<strong>the</strong>ned industry-academicgovernment<br />
and interdisciplinary<br />
collaboration<br />
Technology transfer from o<strong>the</strong>r countries<br />
Development of R&D infrastructure<br />
Expansion of R&D funding <strong>for</strong> public<br />
research organization and companies<br />
Internationalization of R&D activitities<br />
Relaxation or elimination of relevant<br />
regulations<br />
Tightened or new regulations<br />
Improvement of environment <strong>for</strong><br />
business startups<br />
Support through taxation, subsidies, and<br />
procurement<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
41,5% 17<br />
63,4% 26<br />
26,8% 11<br />
31,7% 13<br />
34,1% 14<br />
41,5% 17<br />
14,6% 6<br />
0% 0<br />
46,3% 19<br />
34,1% 14<br />
4,9%<br />
2
Society based on energy and material efficiency – introduction<br />
Area 1: Housing, spatial planning and infrastructures<br />
Statements<br />
E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which electronics, media, and internet<br />
are seamlessly connected, and <strong>the</strong> system controls and optimises also lightning<br />
and temperature taking into account circumstances and need.<br />
E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment technologies and processes in<br />
planning that are useful <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> minimization of environmental burdens on spatial<br />
planning.<br />
E1.3 A design scheme <strong>for</strong> civil engineering structures and buildings that adopts<br />
<strong>the</strong> concept of life cycle assessment (LCA).<br />
E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological solutions reduce energy<br />
consumption per capita in new housing areas (including heating, lightning, appliances,<br />
local transport of goods and people, etc.) in Finland by half.<br />
E1.5 LED-technology is <strong>the</strong> leading technology <strong>for</strong> lightning in homes, offices<br />
etc.<br />
E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling to be per<strong>for</strong>med locally<br />
by each house or household to eliminate emissions and <strong>the</strong> need <strong>for</strong> collection.<br />
E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.<br />
E1.8 New technology related to use of water (e.g. low water or waterless cleaning<br />
clo<strong>the</strong>s, dish washing etc.) and in waste water systems lead to a significant reduction<br />
in <strong>the</strong> amount of waste water (prevention of waste water as a guiding principle).<br />
E1.9 In <strong>the</strong> dense housing areas transportation of <strong>the</strong> recyclables and disposable<br />
wastes are organized by so called central vacuum waste sorting/transpartion system.<br />
E1.10 Technology <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> early detection of and response to large-scale <strong>for</strong>est<br />
fires around <strong>the</strong> world.<br />
113
114<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which<br />
electronics, media, and internet are seamlessly...<br />
E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment<br />
technologies and processes in planning that are useful...<br />
E1.3 A design scheme <strong>for</strong> civil engineering structures<br />
and buildings that adopts <strong>the</strong> concept<br />
of life cycle assessment...<br />
E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological<br />
solutions reduce energy consumption per capita in new...<br />
E1.5 LED-technology is <strong>the</strong> leading technology<br />
<strong>for</strong> lightning in homes, offices etc.<br />
E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling<br />
to be per<strong>for</strong>med locally by each house or household to...<br />
E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.<br />
E1.8 New technology related to use of water<br />
(e.g. low water or waterless cleaning<br />
clo<strong>the</strong>s, dish washing etc.)...<br />
E1.9 In <strong>the</strong> dense housing areas transportation of <strong>the</strong><br />
recyclables and disposable wastes are organized by so...<br />
E1.10 Technology <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> early detection of and response<br />
to large-scale <strong>for</strong>est fires around <strong>the</strong> world.<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 2,5)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
21,7%<br />
41,3%<br />
17,4%<br />
10 ,9%<br />
6,5%<br />
2,2%<br />
10<br />
19<br />
8<br />
5<br />
3<br />
1
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
4,4%<br />
8,9%<br />
20%<br />
35,6%<br />
26,7%<br />
4,4%<br />
4,4%<br />
8,9%<br />
26,7%<br />
26,7%<br />
31,1%<br />
2,3%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,1)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
2,2%<br />
28,3%<br />
47,8%<br />
10,9%<br />
2,2%<br />
8,7%<br />
1<br />
13<br />
22<br />
5<br />
1<br />
4<br />
2<br />
4<br />
9<br />
16<br />
12<br />
2<br />
2<br />
4<br />
12<br />
12<br />
14<br />
1<br />
115
Area 2: Industry, Business, Economy<br />
116<br />
Statements<br />
E2.1 Motors and o<strong>the</strong>r industrial electric power apparatuses utilize high-temperature<br />
superconductivity.<br />
E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production processes by means<br />
of large-scale energy storage system (superconductivity technology, a flywheel,<br />
a capacitor, etc.)<br />
E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes <strong>for</strong> SF6 gas (sulfur<br />
hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating, and arc quenching in electrical equipment),<br />
which has been additionally listed as a regulated substance by <strong>the</strong> Kyoto<br />
Protocol.<br />
E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings through a major industrial<br />
plant downsizing (1/ 2 to 1/ 10 of current size) or a dramatic improvement in<br />
plant serviceability by introducing modules in workflows, recombining modules,<br />
and constructing modu<br />
E2.5 Most companies and public organisations, regardless of size, go paperless<br />
and improve productivity as well as energy and material efficiency through <strong>the</strong><br />
digitization.<br />
E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from home or o<strong>the</strong>r proper<br />
places using virtual technologies that allow sufficient social contacts with<br />
co-workers.<br />
E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin and soft) that it can be substituted<br />
<strong>for</strong> newspaper.<br />
E2.8 Manufacturers’ responsibility (producer responsibility) <strong>for</strong> collecting and<br />
processing of discarded products is defined by law, and reuse and recycling systems<br />
in which more than 90% of used material is reused or recycled become<br />
widespread in most product<br />
E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and sustainability is raising<br />
and this leads to significant changes in energy consumption, energy production<br />
and energy and material saving through consumer choices and market demand.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
E2.1 Motors and o<strong>the</strong>r industrial electric power<br />
apparatuses utilize high-temperature<br />
superconductivity.<br />
E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production<br />
processes by means of large-scale energy storage system<br />
(superconductivity technology, a flywheel, a capacitor, etc.)<br />
E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes <strong>for</strong><br />
SF6 gas (sulfur hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating,<br />
and arcquenching in electrical equipment), which has been<br />
additionally listed as a regulated substance<br />
by <strong>the</strong> Kyoto Protocol.<br />
E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings<br />
through a major industrial plant downsizing (1/ 2 to 1/ 10<br />
of current size) or a dramatic improvement in plant<br />
serviceability by introducing modules in workflows,<br />
recombining modules, and constructing<br />
E2.5 Most companies and public organisations,<br />
regardless of size, go paperless and improve<br />
productivity as well as energy and<br />
material efficiency through <strong>the</strong> digitization.<br />
E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from<br />
home or o<strong>the</strong>r proper places using virtual technologies<br />
that allow sufficient social contacts with co-workers.<br />
E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible<br />
(thin and soft) that it can be substituted<br />
<strong>for</strong> newspaper.<br />
E2.8 Manufacturers' responsibility (producer responsibility)<br />
<strong>for</strong> collecting and processing of discarded products is<br />
defined by law, and reuse and recycling systems in<br />
which more than 90% of used material is reused or<br />
recycled become widespread in most...<br />
E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and<br />
sustainability is raising and this leads to significant<br />
changes in energy consumption, energy production<br />
and energy and material saving through<br />
consumer choices and market demand.<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,7)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
10,4%<br />
43,8%<br />
20,8%<br />
18, 8%<br />
6,3%<br />
0%<br />
5<br />
21<br />
10<br />
9<br />
3<br />
0<br />
117
118<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4,4; total: 47)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 4,3; total: 47)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
0%<br />
19,1%<br />
27,7%<br />
46,8%<br />
6,4%<br />
0%<br />
2,1%<br />
19,1%<br />
34%<br />
40,4%<br />
4,3%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,9)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
33,3%<br />
56,3%<br />
4,2%<br />
0%<br />
6,3%<br />
0<br />
16<br />
27<br />
2<br />
0<br />
4<br />
0<br />
0<br />
9<br />
13<br />
22<br />
3<br />
0<br />
1<br />
9<br />
16<br />
19<br />
2
Area 3: Transport, logistics<br />
Statements<br />
E3.1 The need <strong>for</strong> transportation of material and people is significantly decreased<br />
by <strong>the</strong> use of IT (like traffic demand management systems).<br />
E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport systems are widely used (automobiles, ships, etc.)<br />
E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.<br />
E3.4 Common distribution systems across urban areas that reduce <strong>the</strong> urban traffic<br />
needs stemming from an increased volume of small-package deliveries due to<br />
<strong>the</strong> proliferation of e-commerce.<br />
E3.5 Car sharing and o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>for</strong>ms of joint use of cars are widely used in large cities.<br />
E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is replaced by public transportation,<br />
walking and cycling, that are made attractive e.g. by new innovations in<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation, com<strong>for</strong>t, traffic safety etc.<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
E3.1 The need <strong>for</strong> transportation of material<br />
and people is significantly decreased<br />
by <strong>the</strong> use of IT (like...<br />
E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport<br />
systems are widely used<br />
(automobiles, ships, etc.)<br />
E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.<br />
E3.4 Common distribution systems across<br />
urban areas that reduce <strong>the</strong> urban traffic<br />
needs stemming from...<br />
E3.5 Car sharing and o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>for</strong>ms of joint use of cars<br />
are widely used in large cities.<br />
E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is<br />
replaced by public transportation, walking and...<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
119
120<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 47 (avg: 2,5)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
Number of question respondents: 46<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4; total: 46)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 46)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
4,3%<br />
28,3%<br />
34,8%<br />
28,3%<br />
4,3%<br />
2,2%<br />
4,3%<br />
39,1%<br />
28,3%<br />
23,9%<br />
2,2%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,3)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
25,54%<br />
27,7%<br />
27,7%<br />
14, 9%<br />
2,1%<br />
2,1%<br />
0%<br />
21,7%<br />
47,8%<br />
17,4%<br />
4,3%<br />
8,7%<br />
12<br />
13<br />
13<br />
0<br />
10<br />
22<br />
8<br />
2<br />
4<br />
9<br />
1<br />
1<br />
0<br />
2<br />
13<br />
16<br />
13<br />
2<br />
1<br />
2<br />
18<br />
13<br />
11<br />
1
Area 4: Material efficiency<br />
Statements<br />
E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic elements based on biotechnology.<br />
E4.2 Methodology <strong>for</strong> tracing and identifying materials suitable <strong>for</strong> recycling<br />
(plastics and metals).<br />
E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers buy services or lease or lend<br />
durables instead of purchasing material products.<br />
E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering companies (ESCO and<br />
MASCO) are commonly used in developing energy and material efficiency in industries,<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r business and public entities.<br />
E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly based on reuse systems.<br />
E4.6 All products include in<strong>for</strong>mative description covering in<strong>for</strong>mation about<br />
production, material balances and emissions levels.<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic<br />
elements based on biotechnology.<br />
E4.2 Methodology <strong>for</strong> tracing and identifying materials<br />
suitable <strong>for</strong> recycling (plastics and metals).<br />
E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers<br />
buy services or lease or lend durables instead of...<br />
E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering<br />
companies (ESCO and MASCO)<br />
are commonly used in...<br />
E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly<br />
based on reuse systems.<br />
E4.6 All products include in<strong>for</strong>mative description<br />
covering in<strong>for</strong>mation about production, material...<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
121
122<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 2,6)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
Number of question respondents: 44<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 44)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 4,1;<br />
total: 43)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
2,3%<br />
25%<br />
38,6%<br />
27,3%<br />
6,8%<br />
0 %<br />
2,3%<br />
30,2%<br />
27,9%<br />
34,9%<br />
4,7%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 3,1)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
21,7%<br />
28,3%<br />
30,4%<br />
10, 9%<br />
4,3%<br />
4,3%<br />
0%<br />
22,2%<br />
66,7%<br />
2,2%<br />
0%<br />
8,9%<br />
10<br />
13<br />
14<br />
0<br />
10<br />
30<br />
1<br />
0<br />
4<br />
5<br />
2<br />
2<br />
0<br />
1<br />
11<br />
17<br />
12<br />
3<br />
0<br />
1<br />
13<br />
12<br />
15<br />
2
Area 5: Food production<br />
Statements<br />
E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large extent based on eco efficient<br />
processes like fermentation and drying by solar energy.<br />
E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and this reduces significantly environmental<br />
impacts like green house gas emissions.<br />
E5.3 Majority of <strong>the</strong> food consumption is produced locally (near-production)<br />
and energy and material efficiency in <strong>the</strong> production and logistic chain is reduced.<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large<br />
extent based on eco efficient processes like<br />
fermentation and drying by solar energy.<br />
E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and<br />
this reduces significantly environmental impacts<br />
like green house gas emissions.<br />
E5.3 Majority of <strong>the</strong> food consumption is produced<br />
locally (near-production) and energy and material<br />
efficiency in <strong>the</strong> production and logistic chain is<br />
reduced.<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 1,8)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
58,7%<br />
23,9%<br />
8,7%<br />
2,2%<br />
0%<br />
6 ,5%<br />
27<br />
11<br />
4<br />
1<br />
0<br />
3<br />
123
124<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
Number of question respondents: 45<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 3,4; total: 45)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
17,8%<br />
28,9%<br />
22,2%<br />
20%<br />
11,1%<br />
2,2 %<br />
28,9%<br />
17,8%<br />
33,3%<br />
8,9%<br />
8,9%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,4)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
23,9%<br />
37%<br />
23,9%<br />
4,3%<br />
10,9%<br />
0<br />
18<br />
13<br />
10<br />
9<br />
5<br />
1<br />
1<br />
8<br />
15<br />
0<br />
4<br />
4<br />
11<br />
17<br />
11<br />
2<br />
5
Area 6: Energy production<br />
Statements<br />
E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.<br />
E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar heat, <strong>the</strong>rmochemical<br />
method using nuclear heat or o<strong>the</strong>r environmentally viable technology.<br />
E6.3 Fuel cells <strong>for</strong> medium- and large-scale electricity generation.<br />
E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric power generation in areas<br />
that have electricity distribution network.<br />
E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle feed or compost by efficient<br />
small scale plants (micro cogeneration in households etc.) that use local<br />
biomaterial like household and garden waste, weeds etc.<br />
E6.6 Formation of international consensus on <strong>the</strong> CO2 storage in oil and gas<br />
fields and brine-filled <strong>for</strong>mations.<br />
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).<br />
The middle point represents median value and <strong>the</strong> start and <strong>the</strong> end points<br />
quartiles.<br />
E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.<br />
E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar<br />
heat, <strong>the</strong>rmochemical method using nuclear heat or...<br />
E6.3 Fuel cells <strong>for</strong> medium- and large-scale<br />
electricity generation.<br />
E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric<br />
power generation in areas that have electricity...<br />
E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle<br />
feed or compost by efficient small scale plants...<br />
E6.6 Formation of international consensus on <strong>the</strong> CO 2<br />
storage in oil and gas fields and brine-filled...<br />
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
125
126<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of your expertise in this area?<br />
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,8)<br />
Everyday knowlegde (in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
from newspapers etc.)<br />
Good knowledge in some of <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Good knowledge in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in some of<br />
<strong>the</strong> questions in this area<br />
Expert of active agent in most <strong>the</strong><br />
questions in this area<br />
Do not know<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> contribution of this area in meeting <strong>the</strong> future challenges and<br />
opportunities...<br />
Number of question respondents: 47<br />
related to this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnish society? (avg: 4,6; total: 47)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses<br />
within this <strong>the</strong>me in Finnland? (avg: 4,5; total: 46)<br />
None<br />
Small<br />
Moderate<br />
Somewhat large<br />
Large<br />
Do not know<br />
0%<br />
0%<br />
10,6%<br />
34%<br />
51,1%<br />
4,3%<br />
0%<br />
0%<br />
13%<br />
32,6%<br />
50%<br />
4 ,3%<br />
What is <strong>the</strong> level of competence, including research and development, in<br />
Finland relative to <strong>the</strong> top level in <strong>the</strong> world within this <strong>the</strong>me? Finland is<br />
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,7)<br />
Leading<br />
Among <strong>the</strong> top<br />
Average<br />
Somewhat behind<br />
Behind<br />
Do not know<br />
25%<br />
18,8%<br />
25%<br />
16,7%<br />
12,5%<br />
2 ,1%<br />
0%<br />
54,2%<br />
31,3%<br />
8,3%<br />
0%<br />
6,3%<br />
0<br />
0<br />
5<br />
16<br />
24<br />
2<br />
0<br />
0<br />
6<br />
15<br />
23<br />
0<br />
26<br />
15<br />
4<br />
0<br />
3<br />
12<br />
9<br />
12<br />
8<br />
6<br />
1<br />
3
Society based on energy and material efficiency<br />
– O<strong>the</strong>r innovations and observations<br />
What are <strong>the</strong> most important measures that should be taken by <strong>the</strong><br />
government towards technological realization and social application (if any)?<br />
You may choose multiple policy measures.<br />
Number of question respondents 49 (avg: 5,6)<br />
Human resources development and<br />
education<br />
Streng<strong>the</strong>ned industry-academicgovernment<br />
and interdisciplinary<br />
collaboration<br />
Technology transfer from o<strong>the</strong>r countries<br />
Development of R&D infrastructure<br />
Expansion of R&D funding <strong>for</strong> public<br />
research organization and companies<br />
Internationalization of R&D activitities<br />
Relaxation or elimination of relevant<br />
regulations<br />
Tightened or new regulations<br />
Improvement of environment <strong>for</strong><br />
business startups<br />
Support through taxation, subsidies, and<br />
procurement<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
44,9% 22<br />
40,8% 20<br />
18,4% 9<br />
36,7% 18<br />
42,9% 21<br />
26,5% 13<br />
2% 1<br />
42,9% 21<br />
34,7% 17<br />
49% 24<br />
4,1%<br />
2<br />
127
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Subscriptions: www.tekes.fi/english/publications
April 20<strong>08</strong><br />
<strong>Social</strong> challenges as <strong>the</strong> <strong>basis</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>for</strong>esight<br />
Cooperative project between NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)<br />
Tekes Review <strong>227</strong>/20<strong>08</strong><br />
Fur<strong>the</strong>r in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Eija Ahola<br />
eija.ahola@tekes.fi<br />
The Finnish Funding Agency <strong>for</strong> Technology and Innovation<br />
Kyllikinportti 2, P.O. Box 69, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland<br />
Tel. +358 1060 55000, Fax +358 9 694 9196, E-mail: tekes@tekes.fi<br />
www.tekes.fi<br />
ISSN 1239-758X<br />
ISBN 978-952-457-404-4