227/08 Social challanges s the basis for foresight - Gaia

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227/08 Social challanges s the basis for foresight - Gaia

Social challenges as

the basis for foresight

Cooperative project between

NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)

Tekes Review

227/2008


Social challenges as

the basis for foresight

Cooperative project between

NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)

Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan (Eds.)

Themes

Media and ICT in everyday life

Marko Turpeinen, HIIT/KTH

Health in aging society

Raimo Sepponen, TKK

Towards energy and material efficient society

Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva

Tekes Review 227/2008

Helsinki 2008


Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation

Tekes is the main public funding organisation for research and development

(R&D) in Finland. Tekes funds industrial projects as well as projects

in research organisations, and especially promotes innovative, risk-intensive

projects. Tekes offers partners from abroad a gateway to the key

technology players in Finland.

Tekes programmes – Tekes´ choices for the greatest impact of

R&D funding

Tekes uses programmes to allocate its financing, networking and expert

services to areas that are important for business and society.

Programmes are launched in areas of application and technology that

are in line with the focus areas in Tekes’ strategy. Tekes allocates about

half the financing granted to companies, universities and research institutes

through the programmes. Tekes programmes have been contributing

to changes in the Finnish innovation environment for twenty years.

Copyright Tekes 2008. All rights reserved.

This publication includes materials protected under copyright law, the

copyright for which is held by Tekes or a third party. The materials

appearing in publications may not be used for commercial purposes. The

contents of publications are the opinion of the writers and do not represent

the official position of Tekes. Tekes bears no responsibility for any possible

damages arising from their use. The original source must be mentioned

when quoting from the materials.

ISSN 1239-758X

ISBN 978-952-457-404-4

Cover picture: Digital Archive Japan Inc.

Cover: Oddball Graphics Oy

Page layout: DTPage Oy


Foreword

The Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project was a joint pilot project between the

Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) and the Japanese

National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (Nistep). The processes

in each country were similar although conducted separately. This report

presents the Finnish foresight process and results.

The previously selected societal challenges formed the starting point of the project.

The main objective of the Finnish foresight process was to identify development

and innovation needs and potentials related to the selected societal themes.

The search for the needs and potentials were linked to the Finnish society and to

global business opportunities.

Tekes invited 35 Finnish experts from various research and business sectors to

create a view of the future for the selected themes. The work was largely carried

out in panel-meetings. The chairmen of the panels – Jouko Kinnunen, Raimo

Sepponen and Marko Turpeinen – reported on the panel themes.

Tekes would like to thank the panel members for giving their considerable

knowledge, competence and experience to the benefit of this project. Without

your remarkable input this process would not have been possible. Our special

gratitude is expressed to the chairmen of the panels for their thorough and competent

work in reporting all ideas and findings.

Gaia Consulting acted as the process facilitator, who planned the panel meeting

techniques in detail and supported and facilitated the work, and also reported the

results of the panel meetings. Gaia’s Dr. Mikko Syrjänen and Dr. Mari Hjelt provided

excellent process management to the project.

Tekes wishes to express its sincere thanks to the process consultant team for their

very professional, profound and excellent work. Their work linked and combined

the knowledge and expertise of individual panel members to build a common

vision for future. The entire process and the methods used were both inspiring

and creative.

The results of this foresight project have already been used in Tekes’s own strategic

focus area work. This report will make them available to other organisations.

Although there are still some challenges left for the future, such as comparing the

Japanese and Finnish results, this project has been an exciting and evolving experience.

Thank you all for your valuable contribution!

Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation


Table of contents

Foreword

1 Background and goals. ...................................1

2 Process and methods ....................................3

2.1 Overview of work process and methods ....................3

2.2 Panel process .......................................6

2.3 Mini-Delphi survey. ...................................8

2.4 Methodological reflections ..............................8

3 Media and ICT in everyday life. ............................10

3.1 Introduction .......................................10

3.2 Scenarios for 2030 ..................................13

3.3 Vision for 2020 .....................................18

3.4 Roadmap .........................................22

3.5 Conclusions and recommendations ......................29

4 Health in aging society ..................................32

4.1 Introduction .......................................32

4.2 Scenarios for 2030 ..................................40

4.3 Vision for 2030 .....................................45

4.4 Roadmap .........................................47

4.5 Conclusions .......................................49

5 Towards energy and material efficient society .................51

5.1 Introduction .......................................51

5.2 The foreseen changes in the operational environment .........52

5.3 Setting of a vision and strategic goals and identification of

the actions needed to achieve the goals ...................55

5.4 Roadmap to society based on energy and material efficiency. ...62

5.5 Conclusions and recommendations ......................64

6 Delphi survey ..........................................67

6.1 Survey themes and respondents ........................67

6.2 Media and ICT .....................................68

6.3 Health ...........................................73

6.4 Energy and material efficiency ..........................77

6.5 Comparison of the themes. ............................82

7 Cross-thematic innovation potential ........................83

7.1 Background and structure .............................83

7.2 Cross-thematic challenges and issues ....................83

7.3 Identified innovation potential. ..........................86

Appendix A Full Delphi survey results. ..........................89

Tekes Reviews in English ..................................128


1 Background and goals

Eija Ahola, Tekes

In spring 2007 Tekes (The Finnish Funding

Agency for Technology and Innovation) and

NISTEP (the National Institute of Science and

Technology Policy of Japan) decided to undertake

a joint foresight pilot project.

The project had several goals. NISTEP wanted to

develop and pilot new methodologies for their

next national technology foresight survey. International

cooperation in foresight was important

for both parties. Tekes wanted to deepen and

widen foresight for some themes already identified

in its own strategic focus area process and

this project provided a good platform.

The formulation of Tekes strategy focus areas has

developed to a common foresight process. Participants

include stakeholders such as Finnish companies,

research institutes and public organisations

that together create a view of the strategic choices

for Finland. Tekes is also cooperating in foresight

issues with other Finnish innovation policy actors.

As an example, Tekes and the Academy of Finland

conducted a joint foresight project – FinnSight

2015. Networking both multi- and cross-disciplines

and using panel-type discussions are essential features

of Tekes’s overall approach to foresight.

NISTEP has a long tradition in technology foresight.

They conducted their 8 th technology foresight

survey in 2003–2004, and are now planning

the 9 th . NISTEP has actively developed the foresight

process and methods used. On the 8 th round

they widened their scope from technology to also

include socio-economic analysis. NISTEP also

conduct research and analysis on trends in science

and technology. The science and technology

perspective and Delphi-surveys form essential

parts of NISTEP’s approach to foresight.

The process was initiated jointly by Tekes and

Nistep and implemented independently in Finland

and Japan. The work process was based on similar

principles and methodology in both countries but

practical implementation in details varied – and

methods were also developed during the project.

The common challenge was to create the process

that is based on identified societal challenges and

creates a concrete road-map for the future. Another

challenge was to combine two basically different

approaches used in the foresight process:

Delphi survey and panel-based foresight.

The selected societal challenges formed the starting

point of the project. The selected themes varied

somewhat between Finland and Japan. The

differences in the theme descriptions reflect differences

in the Japanese and Finnish societies,

social systems and business organisations.

The Finnish themes were based in questions related

to

changing media and ICT in everyday life

health and wellbeing in aging society

society based on energy and material

efficiency.

The main purpose of the process was to identify

development and innovation needs and potentials

related to the selected societal themes. Essential

part of the process was also to look for innovation

potential across and between the selected themes.

The needs and potentials were linked to both

Finnish society and global business opportunities.

At the same time as the Tekes-Japan foresight

project, an ongoing strategy process in

Tekes aimed to identify future priority areas of its

operations. The results of the foresight project

support the selection of focus areas at Tekes. The

1


Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project also contributes

to the development of foresight practices and

co-operation between Tekes and other organizations.

Tekes invited the chairmen and 10–15 panel

members for each panel to participate in the

work. Each panel included researchers as well as

business people with visions for future and wide

perspective of their own sectors and society. Gaia

Consulting Ltd served as the process consultant

for the project in Finland. Details of the pilot project

were planned and discussed in advance and

throughout the process together with the process

consultants, Tekes and the chairmen. Gaia Consulting

Ltd acted as a process facilitator, who

planned the panel meeting techniques in detail

and supported and facilitated the work.

2

From Tekes perspective this project included several

challenges leading to an experimental and

creative foresight process. Societal future challenges

as the starting point is new at Tekes. Combining

Delphi survey to panel and workshop

based foresight process was also a new initiative.

International, simultaneously and independently

conducted collaborative foresight was a new way

to try to get some comparative results and deeper

understanding of foresight results. This process

will still continue. Methods developed for the

process to facilitate discussion in panel meetings

were creative and productive, and supported both

future and strategic thinking and reporting of results.

These features of the process provided a

good learning platform of foresight methodologies

for all participants.


2 Process and methods

Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan,

Gaia Consulting Ltd

2.1 Overview of work process

and methods

This Chapter introduces the overall work process

of the Tekes-Japan foresight project and the

methods used. The structure of the report is as follows.

The work methods used are examined below

both from the point of view of theory and

practical implementation. Chapter 2.2 presents

the panel process and aims and accomplishments

of each panel meeting. As a part of the foresight

project, a Delphi type survey was conducted.

This is briefly presented in Chapter 2.3. As a conclusion

of the overall process, chapter 2.4 reflects

the methodologies used and assesses the pilot

project.

The work was based on a number of foresight

methods. These methods are presented in this

Input from

scenarion work

at Tekes

Societal needs,

challenges and goals

Scenario

work

Vision

Road-map

work

chapter first from a theoretical point of view and

then explained how each method was implemented

in the Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project.

The main methods were expert panels and

Delphi type survey. In addition, the expert panels

were supported by scenario methods, roadmap

work and various facilitation methods. The work

methods and their links to the overall process are

presented in figure 2.1.

Expert panels

The expert panel method is the most frequently

used foresight method in to elicit expert knowledge.

The panels are typically groups of 12-20 individuals

who are given 3-18 months to deliberate

upon the future of a given topic. Expert panels

are based on in-depth and meaningful interaction

and networking between different scientific dis-

Innovations

meeting

the needs

and challenges

Delphi

survey

Prioritised strategic goals and identified

policies and other actions needed for

achieving the vision and objectives

Figure 2.1. Overview of the process

Japanese Delphi

as a starting

point

Technological

and other solutions

and their timing

3


ciplines and areas of expertise. The panel method

complements other methods used in foresight. 1

Expert panels in the foresight project were divided

into three themes:

Healthcare and wellbeing

Energy and material efficiency and

Consumers and media.

Each theme consisted of working groups consisting

of 10-15 experts. The panels were a focal

point of the process. Panel members collected

and analyzed information utilizing various methods

to produce recommendations for Tekes. The

aim of the expert panels was to identify societal

challenges as well as knowledge and innovation

needs and possibilities related to them. The process

was supported and facilitated by a process

consult.

Scenario work

The scenario method is one of the main concepts

and most widely used methods in foresight. In

foresight language a scenario usually refers to

different “stories” illustrating various aspects of

possible futures. Hence scenarios are not predictions

about the (most probable) future or the most

preferred future. To be effective, a scenario must

be plausible, consistent and offer insights into the

future. Plausibility in this context means that the

scenario might conceivably happen. The logics in

a scenario must be internally consistent and the

scenario should also provide relevant insights for

decisions. Scenarios help in anticipating the context

in which the decision makers have to act in

the future. 2

4

In the Finnish process the scenarios were used as

descriptions of the future world and environment

where decision will be made 3 . Each panel developed

2-3 scenarios at the beginning of the process

and these served as a basis for identifying future

possibilities, needs and challenges.

The basis for the scenario work in the Tekes-Japan

foresight project was the scenario work

previously carried out by Tekes as a part of their

strategy work. These helped in identifying the

basic trends and drivers, and the panelists were

asked to identify significant events and trends

from the point of view of their own theme before

and during the first panel meeting. The

theme specific scenarios were built to the year

2030, except in energy and material efficiency

panel, which choose the perspective period of

2050.

Technology road-maps and

backcasting

Roadmaps include visions and projections of future

possible technological developments, products

or environments. They map political or

socio-economic goals back to the present S&T

policies through various technological paths.

Usually, roadmapping is a normative tool, i.e. the

desired future state is pre-determined. It includes

graphical representations in which “nodes”

(states of the art in S&T development) are connected

by “links” (causal or temporal relations)

showing the nature, rate and direction of potential

S&T developments. 4

1 http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_expert-panel.htm

2 http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_scenario.htm

3 Note that Nistep uses the concept scenario to refer to the desired future path that the technological development

supports. Thus the Nistep scenario is closer to the vision as defined in the Finnish process.

4 http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_roadmapping.htm


In the Tekes-Japan foresight project roadmapping

covered also societal development (organizations,

legislation, standards etc.) and innovations

from a large perspective, not referring only to

technology. Thus, the roadmap method used here

was of a combination of technology roadmaps

and backcasting. 5

The basis for the roadmaps was a vision/goal

statement, which was set to each theme for the

year 2030/2050. The innovation roadmap outlined

needed actions and technology steps to

achieve the vision/goal statement from the present

situation to 2030/2050.

Delphi method

Delphi method is an expert survey, which is implemented

in two or more ‘rounds’ in which, in

the later rounds of the survey the results of the

previous round are given as feedback. Delphi surveys

are not intended to produce statistical results

that would correspond to the view a wider public.

The outcomes rather represent the view of a particular

group of experts. The Delphi method is not

used to create consensus but to test if there is already

consensus about the future developments.

It reduces tacit and complex knowledge to a single

statement that the respondents judge. In the

most common form, the opinions sought concern

particular developments and their probability,

timing or significance. 6

In the Tekes-Japan foresight project the aim of the

mini-Delphi survey was to produce a timeline of

possible solutions created by technology and other

innovations. The earlier Japanese Delphi studies

were used as a starting point in formulating the

statements 7 and they were finalized with the help

from the panel members. The main part of the sur-

vey consisted of statements including technological

or other solutions and its social application or

impact. For each statement, respondents were requested

to express their opinion on the timing of

both the technical realization and social application

of the solutions. In addition to the timing of individual

statements, more general questions were

asked concerning the respondents’ expertise, the

relevance of the areas covered in the survey to Finland

as well as the need for public policy measures

in promoting the solutions and their application.

Due to a tight schedule there was only one round of

the Delphi survey. The mini Delphi survey provided

supporting information to the process. Results

of the Delphi-survey were reported to the

panel members during the work process.

Distribution of work and organization

Each theme had four panel meetings (workshops).

The facilitator of each theme prepared the

background material and Delphi-survey. The facilitators

also led the discussions and took notes

from each panel meeting. All practical issues

were prepared in cooperation between Tekes and

Gaia Consulting Ltd.

The chairmen of the panels were responsible for

the context of the panels but before each panel

meeting the facilitator and chairman went

through the structure of each panel meeting. The

chairmen had also the main reporting responsibility

for the panel reports.

A project steering group led by Tekes was responsible

for the implementation of the process. The

steering group kept contact to Japan and internally

with strategy process of Tekes. Tekes and

Nistep shared material, results and experiences

during the process.

5 Backcasting is a method to develop normative scenarios and explore their feasibility and implications. It can be

characterised as a social learning process and the long term perspective makes it possible to let go of the present way

of meeting certain specific social needs. More information: http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_backcasting.htm

6 http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_delphi.htm

7 The statements were as such: ”Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special glasses and

feeling fatigue in homes” and “Passive solar energy is used largely in housing”.

5


2.2 Panel process

The panel process was implemented in four separate

panel meetings 8 , which were arranged in autumn

2007. Three of the meetings had a duration

four hours and one panel meeting was an all-day

meeting, which lasted seven hours. The themes of

the panel meetings are listed below. The role of

the panel meeting in the overall process is illustrated

in Figure 2.2.

Panel meeting 1: Process kick-off, identification

of trends and drivers and creating views of

possible futures (September)

Panel meeting 2: Identification of needs, challenges,

possibilities and strategic options on

the basis of possible futures (October)

Panel meeting 3: Setting the vision and strategic

goals, and identifying the actions needed

for achieving the goals. (November).

Panel meeting 4: Specifying the actions and

the roadmap (December)

6

Panel work

Each panel meeting was complemented by background

material and panel members were given

assignments between the panel meetings. The

first panel meeting included a joint kick-off with

all three panels and this was followed by specific

sessions for each panel separately.

Panel meeting 1: Process kick-off,

identification of trends and drivers and

creating views of possible futures

In the first panel meeting, the preliminary theme

of the panel was presented by Tekes, and the

theme was discussed and refined by the panel

members. Additionally, an overall description of

the process and general background trends and

scenarios were presented. Panel members were

asked to identify major drivers and trends related

to their panel theme before the first meeting.

These were discussed and complemented during

the meeting. The main task of the meeting was to

identify key trends and draft interesting scenarios

Input from

scenarion work

at Tekes

Innovations

Meeting 1: Kick-off and thematic

meeting

scenarios Japanese

the needs

Delphi as a

Scenario and challenges

starting point

work

Meeting 2: Challenges, needs and strategic options

Delphi

Technological

Societal needs,

survey

and other

challenges and

solutions and

goals

their timing

Meeting 3: Vision, strategic Vision goals and essential milestones

Road-map

Meeting 4: Completing the innovation

work

road-map and suggestions for action plan

Prioritised strategic goals and identified

policies and other actions needed for

achieving the vision and objectives

Figure 2.2. Panel meetings as a part of the process

8 Note: In the Finnish process the word ‘workshop’ was used as synonym for the panel meetings.

This use or terminology differs slightly from the Japanese process.

05-2007 dm # 293 628


for the theme. Panel members also specified the

target year for the foresight process according to

what was a relevant perspective period from the

point of view of the theme.

Panel meeting 2: Identification of needs,

challenges, possibilities and strategic

options on the basis of possible futures

The preliminary scenarios drafted in the first panel

meeting were the main focus point for the second

panel meeting. The pre-meeting assignments covered

each produced scenario. Panel members were

asked to describe how the everyday life of an example

family “Suominen” would look in each scenario

and what new needs, challenges and opportunities

each scenarios bring. Panel members were

also asked to identify what technologies or innovations

could be needed or utilized in meeting the

needs, challenges or opportunities.

Each scenario was discussed in the panel meeting

and developed further. Some preliminary scenarios

were excluded at this point as a result of group

discussion. Panel members were asked to identify

needs, opportunities and challenges and to

group them for each scenario. These were presented

to the other groups. Finally, the panel

members generated ideas for possible strategic

options for Finland. These ideas were not drafted

per scenario but panel members had rather an opportunity

to identify freely Finland’s possibilities

by the target year chosen.

Panel meeting 3: Setting the vision and

strategic goals, and identifying the

actions needed for achieving the goals

Notes from the previous panel meeting and preliminary

results from the mini-delphi –survey

were the background material for the third panel

meeting. Panel members were assigned in advance

with a task to write down a vision/goal

statement for Finland for the year 2030/2050 and

to identify major solutions or changes needed to

be introduced and implemented in order to

achieve this goal. Panel members were also assigned

to identify the level of knowledge and

skills related to the theme in Finland as well as areas

in which Finland is doing well and areas in

which Finland is dragging behind. Chairmen held

a presentation of their theme and summarized the

results the process had achieved so far. The presentation

was followed by a joint discussion of

possible issues that have been missed in the discussions

so far.

The first task for the whole day panel meeting

was to formulate a 1-2 sentence vision/goal statement

for the panel. The second task was to analyze

the present state through historical events.

Panel members were requested to mark on

timelines personal issues, societal events and

events relevant to the theme. The third main task

was to identify major solution areas and themes

to achieve the vision/goal statement. These were

selected as a focus point for draft roadmap analysis,

which were produced in groups.

Panel meeting 4: Specifying the actions

and the roadmap

Notes from the previous panel meeting and results

from the mini-delphi survey were background

material for the fourth and final meeting.

Pre-meeting assignments involved identifying

areas missing from the draft roadmaps and common

themes in the roadmaps. The themes were

discussed in the meeting jointly and they were

complemented where necessary.

The main focus area of the panel meeting was to

develop the roadmaps further and to identify actions

that are necessary for completing the goals.

Panel members were first divided into groups that

added missing issues and formulated a specific

goal/target for each roadmap concerned. Panel

members were also asked to identify critical decisions

or events that lead to or can prevent achieving

the goal. The completed roadmaps were

cross-checked with other panel members who had

an opportunity to comment and suggest missing

decisions or events for each roadmap. Additionally

panel members identified areas of actions

that were common for the roadmaps. In the end

7


discussions panel members were able to give feedback

for the whole foresight process and give suggestions

and pinpoint focal areas for the panel

chairman for reporting.

Cross-thematic workshop

During the panel process it was recognized that

the thematic panels worked with several closely

linked issues. After completing the panel workshops,

the chairmen of the panels met and decided

that an additional workshop for examining

cross-cutting issues would be a useful addition to

the process. A half day workshop with the panel

chairmen and Tekes representatives was thus organized.

Cross-cutting issues are presented separately

in Chapter 7.

2.3 Mini-Delphi survey

The latest Japanese Delphi survey 9 served as a

starting point in developing a suitable survey for

the Finnish foresight process. The statements of

the Japanese Delphi served as a starting point and

potentially interesting statements were selected

from the thematically broad survey by the facilitator

and the thematic experts at Tekes. This initial

list was analysed, less interesting statements were

dropped and additional statements were added.

The draft list of statements was sent for comments

to the panel members after which the facilitator

and Tekes experts finalized the survey.

The survey was implemented in only one round.

This differs from normal Delphi method in which

the results of the previous round are given as

feedback. The survey was implemented as a web

survey. The survey request was sent to the panel

members and to the email mailing lists of selected

Tekes technology programmes. In total 130 persons

responded. Each thematic area had 33-39

statements and in addition some general questions.

The respondents answered the statements

of only one of the thematic areas although they

also had the option to answer the others.

9 http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/ftx/eng/rep097e/idx097e.html

8

The results of the Delphi survey are presented in

Chapter 6.

2.4 Methodological reflections

The Tekes Japan foresight process also served as

a foresight method test bed. It combined the panel

approach with Delphi type survey, which has not

been a common practice in foresight.

The project can be overall regarded as successful.

For many panel members, the process was a valuable

learning experience and the process created

mutual understanding among panel members.

For the chairmen responsible for the reporting,

the views of the panel members and all panel

meetings produced a lot of written material. Additionally,

at the end of the process chairmen

themselves wanted to have an additional meeting

for cross-thematic discussions.

The expert panel work received especially additional

value by being facilitated by an independent

facilitator, which differs from the handbook

panel work method. The methodology and work

methods used proved to be successful in producing

new ideas. However tight schedule created

challenges for this as most of the time had to be

used for communicating existing knowledge.

When considering aspects to develop similar

types of projects, one aspect is the background

knowledge of the panel members. The Tekes Japan

process did not include a literature review

part and hence the process relied heavily on the

information and expertise each panelist brought

into the process. If more time and resources

would have been allocated to produce background

information, this could have been brought

to the panel meetings as background material. A

literature review in the beginning and a stronger

contextual support throughout the process could

ensure that no relevant aspects are ignored.


Another important area is the support for commitment

and the group dynamics. This requires

first of all that there is adequate number of people

in each panel to secure sufficient participation (at

least 7–8 people) in each meeting. The initial

group that is invited should hence be even up to

15 people, depending on the level of commitment.

Concerning the commitment, enough time

should be allocated to the first panel meeting in

order to allow panel members to become better

acquainted with each other and to commit them to

the process.

In the Finnish process the utilization of the

mini-Delphi survey turned out to be challenging.

In Japan, there is a consistent tradition of

Delphi-surveys, but the Finnish survey was not

sufficiently integrated into the process. The panel

members should have had a more active role in

formulating the Delphi statements and the areas

in the Delphi survey should have been selected

only when the main solutions for each theme had

been identified in panel meeting 3. In this way the

Delphi work would have better supported the

roadmap work.

During the foresight process a cross-comparison

between themes could be valuable. In this case

such a comparison was done between panel

chairmen only during the report writing phase.

This meeting aimed at identifying links between

the themes and recommendations. However, this

could have been a planned procedure from the beginning

so that it would have supported the work

in the panels. Hence sufficient resources should

be allocated to this kind of comparison in case the

thematic areas have linkages like in this case.

Furthermore, a comparison also between Japanese

and Finnish results could have produced

new insights. In general, more co-operation with

the Japanese would have been productive.

Finally, it is important to keep in mind that this

kind of foresight project is an individual-centered

process. The results of the process can be potentially

dominated by the chairman or individual

panel members, and this should be taken into notice

when assessing the results and utilizing them.

Particularly, this is a challenge when the results are

intended to be used in the actual strategic policy

making to decide on R&D funding allocation. Far

reaching and important decisions cannot be based

on the opinions of few individuals given in the

context where the participants themselves perhaps

do not realize the intended use of the results. On

the other hand, the surprise elements and capability

of the foresight process to create new ideas suffer

if the process is focused only on the consensus

opinions validated with a large group of individuals.

In planning the foresight one should pay attention

in using methods which enforce panel members

to participate equally so that also the more silent

ones get their voice through and which also

vary and force the participants to look at issues

from various different points of view. Last but not

least, it should be kept in mind that foresight is intended

to support the strategic decision making but

not to replace it.

9


3 Media and ICT in everyday life

Professor Marko Turpeinen

Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan

Helsinki Institute for Information Technology

Panel chairman

Marko Turpeinen,

Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan and

Helsinki Institute for Information Technology

Panel members

Timo Argillander, Digital Media Finland Oy

Kari Hjelt, Nokia Research Center

Helene Juhola, The Federation of

the Finnish Media Industry

Oskar Korkman, Vectia Foresight

Göte Nyman, University of Helsinki

Petteri Repo, Nordic Consumer Research Centre

Risto Setälä, Tekes

Pirjo Tiainen, MTV MEDIA

Janne Viemerö, Tekes

3.1 Introduction

Media takes an ever-growing share of our everyday

life. The media landscape is also rapidly

changing, mainly due to technical innovations

and to the accelerating adoption of new technology

by the consumer market. The latest examples

are the vast expansion of Internet-based media

and mobile technologies over the past 20 years.

In parallel, the media industry has grown in volume

and importance in the global economy. As

new media technologies are created, they challenge

and change the traditional mass media industries,

which need to adapt their strategies to

retain and extend their markets. Also, the use of

media communication in industries and activities

that lie outside the media industry proper is rapidly

expanding. Finally, the public sector is making

tremendous investments in applying modern

media technology to effectively provide mediated

services to citizens.

The title of this work refers to convergence,

which is frequently used to denote the ongoing

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restructuring of media industry as well as to describe

the developments in media forms, distribution,

and consumption. The original “media convergence”

term from mid-1980s by Nicholas

Negroponte predicted that broadcasting, print

and computer industry would converge into a

much larger media industry. In the 1990s, this

transformed into convergence between media,

telecommunications, and computer industries.

On the other hand, we have seen technological

variability explode, and the amount of media offerings

increase rapidly. In many ways the consumer

is facing a diverging landscape of media

content, distribution channels and digital devices

to choose from, and the rate of this change is accelerating.

Our task in this foresight work was to first formulate

future scenarios of media use, primarily in

Finland. Based on these scenarios we defined a

vision for Finland’s media and communication

sector, and sketched roadmaps to complete that

vision. We decided to approach our work through

two different timeframes: year 2030 in defining

future scenarios, and 2020 in specifying Finland’s

vision and roadmaps.

It is therefore a humbling task to consider the scenarios

for the next 20 years of consumer media

use, as it is likely that new changes of scale similar

to the breakthroughs of the Internet and mobile

communications have already started, but

they are not yet identifiable. Equally, it is likely

that new developments totally unforeseen today

will emerge.

To put the task of our group work in context, we

did an exercise placing different media and communication

uses and technologies of the past 30

years on a timeline. The result (Figure 3.1) shows

that there has been a tremendous leap in technology

and change in media use during this time in


Figure 3.1. Timeline of evolution of media use and related technology

Finland. Sector barriers have broken down, and

we have moved from a monoculture to a very diverse

cultural basis supported by media industry

that is growing rapidly in complexity. The overall

wealth in Finnish society has grown and people

have invested in media, communication and new

technology.

In everyday consumption, the biggest change has

been the willingness of consumers to invest in

telecommunication services, whereas traditional

media products have shown more modest growth.

Finland has become a country of 5 million people

with more than 6 million active mobile phone accounts.

Internet access has become quite ubiquitous

in Finland with drastic growth in broadband

use, and willingness to invest in PC and networking

infrastructure in households.

The explosion of mobile and Internet communications

is reflected in the current industrial sectors

in Finland. ICT sector has become the flagship

of Finnish industry, led by Nokia, and supported

by a large ecosystem of local companies

forming the Nokia cluster.

Finland has also been at the forefront in exploring

new forms of mobile-enabled everyday services,

but these initiatives are yet to make a significant

breakthrough in terms of usage and business success.

On the other hand, despite having had a

leading role in Internet penetration and specific

areas such as Internet banking, Finland is not anymore

a leading developer of new everyday services

for the Internet. Paradoxically, this position

was lost during the first half of the 2000s despite

the rapid growth of Internet use. This happened

because of bloated expectations and investments

of the “millennium tech hype” were succeeded by

a nearly total innovation and development freeze

in most Finnish media and telecommunications

companies. There has also been only few successful

start-up companies, and many of them

have been sold to international owners in an early

stage of business growth.

Looking at this development through the lenses

of the traditional media industry, a different picture

emerges. In the mindset of media corporations,

the net has only recently evolved into being

one of the three large media alongside with print

and television, moving ahead of books, magazines,

radio, and games, and to be taken seriously.

Different media compete of people’s attention,

which has now started to shift towards the net.

And where people go, media advertising follows.

However, the full picture of media usage in people’s

everyday life includes all previous media,

and they are being reformed as synergies are

found between the new and the old. Growth of the

Internet does not mean the death of other media.

Looking closer at different types of media, following

observations can be made:

Print. Maybe the media that has most often

been considered (by some) to be on the brink of

extinction is the print media. Despite gloomy

predictions, print media has shown its strength

and resilience in the time of rapid digitalization.

Paper is still unrivalled as a medium for

concentrated reading. However, there are signs

in the market that the changes in media use and

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12

shifts in advertising spending are posing large

challenges to the traditional print industry.

Print executives are especially concerned

about the shrinking consumption of print products

by the younger generations. This shift is

probably most visible in the newspaper market

in US, but also many other large markets have

been in decline. This has resulted in newspaper

companies increasing their investments in

cross media products and web sites to recover

some of the lost marketshare advertising market,

and especially in classified ads. Book and

magazine publishing as not been as much affected

yet by the growth of the electronic media.

There are also wider implications of these

changing patterns of media use, as manifested

by the growing downsizing pressures in the

Finnish forest industry.

Television. Television is the other mass media

giant that has changed tremendously the everyday

life and consumption patterns of people in

the last 50 years. Finnish broadcasting industry

has gone though several major changes in the

recent years. The infrastructure has been digitalized,

consumers have changed their home

equipment to comply with digital standards,

and commercial television companies have

made significant investments in new pay-TV

channels to make a shift from advertising

based revenues to direct consumer subscriptions.

We are also witnessing a rapid expansion

of transfer of video contents on the Internet.

One driver for this growth is the desire to deliver

high quality video-on-demand over the

Internet. Equally, there has been a vast expansion

of use of short-clip-formatted video from

sites like YouTube, which has grown into the

world’s third most accessed Web site in just

two years. P2P distribution of video has expanded

from marginal activity into a phenomenon

that threatens the existing business models

of broadcast television and DVD sales. Simultaneously,

there are significant differences between

age groups in the consumption behavior.

Broadcast TV watching in Finland shows a

distinct generation gap between the people

over and under 45 years. The older people are

the more they follow the broadcast media and

their amount of TV watching minutes has been

growing in the past 10 years. The situation is

the opposite for the generations below 45

where the trend is slowly downwards. As this

behavioral gap is widening, it may be reasonable

to assume that traditional broadcast TV

watching has already peaked in Finland. Since

the largest consumer groups of current broadcasting

television are over 45-year olds, it is vital

to understand how the older consumer segments

will behave in the future

Games. Gaming branch has grown rapidly to

be one of the largest sectors of media industry.

As an example, the most popular massively-multiplayer

online game is called Word

of Warcraft (i.e. WoW), which is operated by

US-based Blizzard and owned by French media

conglomerate Vivendi. It has 10 million active

subscribers globally spending 20 hours/

week on average playing the game, and paying

approximately 12 euros/month to play the

game. This would result in 1,5 billion euros of

subscription revenue in 2008, which probably

makes WoW the most profitable media product

of our time. This rapidly growing online

gaming sector has resulted from a merger between

technically capable infrastructure, social

media use, and creative content production.

Programming and software have a key

role to play in the development of a modern entertainment

media. This means also that the

media sector has increasing need for people

who are skilled software architects, designers

and engineers. Game industry is a prime example

of this convergence.

Social media. There has been a vast “social

media gap” that new Internet uses have filled

bit by bit. The growth of the social media use is

rapidly rising, and social media services have

become the most popular forms of web media

alongside with information search. There is

also a strong overlap between social media use

and new forms of video sharing and gaming. It

can also be assumed that we have seen only the

beginning of this change as we move away

from the dichotomy of personal media and

one-to-one communications versus mass media.

There are thousands of shades of grey in

between and they interact in very complex

ways. It is no longer meaningful to talk about

the clearly defined virtual world or cyberspace

as something different and separated from the


“real world”. We are seeing many phenomena

of how these two are intertwined. There is also

a growing need for “individualistic social behavior”.

We choose the social networks and the

connections in more individualistic terms, but

the goals of the collective may be quite altruistic

and truly collective.

Many recent global societal changes have been

triggered by novel media and communication

technologies that are fueling the change towards

a network society. The network-based media industry

is global and multi-faceted as innovative

entrepreneurs are developing new types of content

and services. Traditional computer industry

companies have shifted their attention from hardware

and software applications to digital media

and mediated services, as demonstrated by global

giants such as Microsoft, Apple, SonyEricsson,

Nokia, Google and Yahoo. There is general belief

that media technology is one of the biggest global

growth drivers (similarly to software industry in

80s and 90s) within the next decades, and there

are several media technology areas of excellence

in Finland: mobile technology and applications,

digital television, paper products, social media

services, games, human-computer interaction,

knowledge in publishing industry, content management,

and semantic web.

It seems that Finland is ideally positioned strategically

in shaping these future developments because

of the existing strong foothold in the underlying

media and communications technology.

This report examines how to reach this potential

starting with future scenarios that define the

framework for discussion.

3.2 Scenarios for 2030

To better understand and analyze possible future

potential we have used the method of scenario development,

which has the goal of painting pictures

of possible futures that can further be used

as a tool for analysis and discussion.

The main dimensions for the future scenarios

were decided to be non-technical, as we assumed

that the rapid development in media and commu-

nications technology is expected as default. Technology

changes are on the roadmap and they are

crucial for future development. However, it is

hard to predict which are the core technical areas

where media technology is likely to develop

most. The dimensions under study are more reflecting

the relationship of this change to other

factors involving our everyday media use.

The two areas that were selected for the analysis

were the media behavior of people and their values

and attitudes, which were further refined into

two dimensions to characterize and differentiate

the possible future scenarios. These dimensions

were named as 1) change in everyday life, and 2)

agency in media use.

When considering media use in everyday life it is

sometimes difficult to say how much change has

actually happened, and how much of this change

has resulted due to the media. Although the

growth of the Internet and mobile technology in

past 10 years has been phenomenal, the question

is whether they have filled old needs or created totally

new behaviors.

By selecting the second dimension of agency, we

ask the question of whose role it is to provide and

package the media that people find in their everyday

use. Who is in the steering wheel: the professional

producer or the consumer? The realistic

answer is that it will be a mixture of both, but

what makes this interesting is that people’s behavior

and expectations are currently changing.

The resulting media consumption scenarios were

named as follows (Figure 3.2):

1. Better everyday media: The role of the media

and communication continues to be to assist

people in their everyday tasks. The technology

naturally evolves, but our everyday practices

remain approximately unchanged; people

work, learn, interact and entertain themselves

for the same purposes and roughly through the

same means as before. The role of media is

both to provide the agenda and pace for the

day, but also to allow people the flexibility to

choose, to experiment and to be active.

2. Web 5.0: The social media becomes the dominant

mode of media use in everyday life. This

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means also that everyday practices of people

are changing and this is both enabled by technology,

but also taking place due to different

socio-economic processes that drive this

changing media use. The agency is very much

on the side of the user of media technology.

The user is behind the driving wheel, making

selections on what, why, where and when. The

role of professional content creators, especially

journalism, is not necessarily diminishing,

but is moving towards a role of facilitator

of dialogue for various parties involved in

on-going dialogue and constantly evolving

media script.

3. Human 2.0: The role of media is to augment

humans in their daily tasks, especially in making

seamless context-specific decisions for

our benefit, choosing to filter the most relevant

pieces of information to us anytime, and by

providing new tools for more efficient learning

and knowledge creation. Media’s role is to

help us to carry our daily tasks better, and to

provide us new skills and entertainment experiences

that has not been previously possible.

People have high trust on media service producers

to provide us with the right thing at the

right time. The control is to a large degree on

the side media, consisting of both professional

media producers offering material for individualized

packaging as well as smart software

systems that make the choices on our behalf

and assist us.

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Stable

everyday life

1. Better

everyday media

Strong agency,

individual control

Weak agency,

media as

the agent

2. Web 5.0

3. Human 2.0

Figure 3.2. Three scenarios of the media future

Changing

everyday life

In the following sections we introduce and discuss

these scenarios in more detail.

Scenario 1: “Better everyday media”

The scenario is based on the idea that everyday

life changes relatively slowly, and that our everyday

routines are not so different in 2030 from today.

The home is the point where “batteries are

being reloaded” and it continues to act as the focus

point around which our lives revolve. Media

finds its role in different everyday contexts, between

which there are quite clear boundaries

(home, work, leisure time, public spaces).

There are no (or only very few) technological

changes or breakthroughs that would be so radical

that they change our everyday routines in a

significant way. There are no drastic changes in

practices and the role of media (and media technology)

as the information filter, agenda setter,

pacemaker, and packager.

On the other dimension of our analysis, i.e.

agency, this scenario balances in the middle

ground. In many ways this can also be continuation

from the current situation where we have already

moved many steps toward media use,

which is much more controlled by the consumer.

One important change is that media use becomes

more real-time, partly enabled by mobile broadband

Internet. The ubiquitous accessibility (any-


thing, anywhere media) becomes finally a reality.

Most popular uses of Internet - search engines,

messaging, social media, electronic commerce,

banking and payments, entertainment - have migrated

to mobile devices. Mobile TV is also a progression

on this trend having mainly the same

media content, but with new devices and new usage

contexts.

The richness and multitude of different family

structures will continue to grow. Despite this,

family entertainment at home is in central role

and is reflected in home electronics, building

styles and decoration. The home electronics

equipment often includes a multitude of devices

for different entertainment, and non-entertainment

purposes. For the evenings, the family gathers

in front of the latest craze: 3DTV.

One continuation along this path is that digital

and electronic media become a seamless part of

our everyday life. Media can be tailored much

better than today based on own interests and

needs. Active media use and participation in

community activities is more relevant. In many

ways this can be considered relevant to the ideas

of ubiquitous or ambient intelligence where the

goal of new technology is to make life easier but

also to disappear, to go out of the way, so that people

can go on living their lives in a more pleasant

and effective way.

However, as the technological infrastructure

grows more complex, there will be a growing need

to be able to effortlessly control the home media

environment for entertainment. The underlying

technology infrastructure will be drastically simplified

reversing the current trend of growing complexity

at home. No wonder people find this complexity

too overwhelming and demand seamless

interconnectivity and simplicity. This growth can

currently be seen, for example, by considering the

modern digital photo infrastructure consisting of

several digital cameras, mobile phones, transfer

cables, wireless connections, PC, TV, media

boxes, removable hard disks, backups, scanners,

printers, drivers, various desktop software, available

network services, etc.

Print media has also evolved to be smarter and to

better meet the everyday needs of people. There

will be new systems for producing and printing

high-quality print publications at home, or in the

neighborhood. The frequency of physical delivery

times of newspapers to homes is increased

and become more flexible, i.e. people can have

their morning paper, afternoon paper, evening paper,

or a customized family paper according to

need. There is also a significant growth in family-centric

self-published content.

New media and information technology is effortless,

seamless, not requiring plenty of attention

(such like paper is today). One of the most important

technical steps forward has been made in the

area of observing human behavior and adapting

to it. 10

Home environments will also become smarter

than they are now. They can notice who is there

and where other people are. In general, the use of

location tracking information everywhere grows.

This naturally raises plenty of privacy concerns,

but also new technical solutions for privacy management

and pseudonymous services have made

these issues less of a topic for burning discussion.

People are very concerned about security, including

both data security and physical security. This

continues to be a booming industry trying to alleviate

the risks of the vulnerabilities of our digital

and physical life situations. Unique identification

of people has been solved, and we have persistent

“ID-auras” in everyday use that are the representation

of our electronic identities.

Technology makes possible real-time communication,

coordination and control in different life

contexts and between them. ICT and media supports

better control of balance between working

tasks and own time. Email will not be as important

as it is now for everyday electronic commu-

10 We may be approaching the Starfire vision by Sun Microsystems (1993,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKJNxgZyVo0) , which had the emphasis on natural interaction,

seamless transfer of media between different devices, and ubiquitous media capture.

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nication, as new uses of social media have made

email obsolete for most user groups.

Mass transit grows in importance and provides

flexible movement between home and leisure

time. The organisation of work is done in a

smarter way. The productivity at work grows.

People appreciate the newly available tools for

self-memory retrieval and coordination of activities.

Although there will be growing use of media

and communication services in work contexts,

there are limits on what is practical and what people

actually prefer given a choice. Bread has to be

baked in bakery - there will not be distance work

for everyone.

New everyday services include: life coordination,

home monitoring and remote control, virtual

presence. We will have more and more demand

for individual on demand digital media

space that is used for active community participation

and entertainment. One of the most important

uses for home media services and gadgets are

new uses in support of individual well-being and

health monitoring. This is especially targeted for

the aging population.

There will be novel content genre innovations,

such as reality TV was in the 2000s, which increasingly

exploit the benefits of novel interactive

and participatory channels. Media offerings

will be more diverse content-wise and easier to

discover. Knowledge representation and management

is essential fueling new forms of applications.

In any case, the diversity of media contents and

device base continues to grow.

Scenario 2: “Web 5.0”

This scenario assumes that the development that

started in with Web 2.0 will reach the whole society

in the western world and increasingly in the

developing countries. The media activity of consumers

will grow significantly, the evolving social

media practices become the dominant mode

of media use in our everyday life, and our everyday

practices are changing as a result. The agency

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of media use is primarily on the side of the user of

media technology.

Everyday life and behavior has changed in many

ways. Extreme self-service culture in Finnish society

is visible everywhere and is also partially

behind the new media uses. Media supports

self-service concepts in the society, and on the

other hand the growing field of robotics and home

automation is converging with media technology.

The traditional mass media forms of channel-driven

content packaging and delivery, and

synchronous media consumption, have been

questioned and largely abandoned by the media

consumers. This means that there is a need for

more active role on the behalf of people to coordinate

their own media use, but they are willing to

carry on these novel media chores in everyday

life. As a result people are active in choosing and

creating media content. Media is not “consumed”,

people “are in it”, “use it”, and “do it”.

Mass media era has transformed into the participative

media era, where the forms of participation

and different shared virtual environments

have evolved significantly. People participate in

individualistic communities meaning that people

choose themselves which communities they want

to be associated with. This results in pressures to

redefine the functions of national and local media

actors.

People have developed their identities in a rich

form on the net. The importance of avatars as a reflection

of ones identity grows significantly.

Electronic services and virtual spaces are a meaningful

continuation to the physical everyday life,

and digital production and participation is easy in

these network environments. Print products are

primarily used to make tangible documentation

of our everyday social lives online and offline.

People do not have the will nor energy to always

be active media users, but more control does not

mean constantly active role. People can spend

time with passive entertainment, but they make

the selections themselves. Social forms of media

use offer also possibilities to follow the activities

more passively, as a visitor or a lurker.


Asynchronous and self-selected media use has

meant that people use more media than before.

However, they want to be in control of selecting

the pace of consumption and participation. Mobile

Internet is ubiquitous, and often used for information

search, reaching and discovering media content.

The media time is spent mostly with computers

and media devices are always with the user.

An important concept that has resulted of these

changes is that we have moved towards ad-hoc life

management. Daily life as considered as a continuously

evolving and flexible process, where daily

decisions are made at the individual, group and

community level, supported by media technologies.

The traditional means of communication are

supported with interleaving digital dialogues that

last from morning to late evening. This is not considered

to be stressful. Everyday tasks of scheduling

and calendar-based life are replaced largely by

new practices, as people move to much more flexible

and place-independent meeting styles. This

also means that there will be radical re-thinking of

how people organize their time as the “daily

agenda” rolls forward. This bears resemblance

with the agrarian society as work and leisure integrate

in the daily life.

Everyday practices are becoming more mediated,

which significantly changes the use of time, consumer

behavior and public sector services. Also

environmental awareness has changed the everyday

practices, for example promoting the use of

virtual meetings instead of traveling. The workplace

has become partly virtual and this is a common

practice in most professions. Working

groups typically organize their meetings in virtual

meeting rooms.

Large part of the services is available electronically

and through virtual meetings. For example,

seeing a doctor starts always with a virtual visit,

and then, depending on the case, guidance can

happen on the net or face-to-face with a doctor.

Peer support groups have more and more importance

in everyday life of people: help, knowledge,

and expertise comes from the peer groups, which

means that the need for media experts in transferring

knowledge and expertise diminishes.

On the way to the work, people can do a quick

“daily health check” in the car, and participate in

the community challenge on who can “be the

most ecological driver of the day”. Technology

needs to be easy to use, measuring well-being

(physical and psychological) indicators and the

progress of highly personalized training programs.

Traveling and nearby nature trekking will be replaced

partly by synthetic digital experiences.

Game playing and “virtual traveling” will get significantly

closer to each other. If it is raining outside,

the father can decide to go jogging on a synthetic

but realistic track with the dog. On the other

hand, this increasing virtualization means that

real experiences will grow in perceived value.

The news presented are personalized, based on

individual’s own activity traces on the net, the importance

score of stories is always calculated individually

and but also using the social connections

as part of the algorithm to calculate the customized

score.

There is plenty of room for novel media content innovations

that take advantage of the power of collective

intelligence, peer production and open innovations.

The role of professional content creators,

especially journalism, is not necessarily diminishing,

but is moving towards a role of facilitator of dialogue

for various parties involved in on-going dialogue

and constantly evolving media script.

Scenario 3: “Human 2.0”

We become more dependent on electronic information,

but the amount of information and means

of communications that are accessible have exploded

far beyond the normal capacity and capabilities

of humans. Information overload is aggravated

significantly, and we need new solutions to

manage the constantly growing flood of information,

communication and media content. People

need significantly better everyday practices and

tools to do the prioritization. To control the individualized

information flows people trust electronic

services and media companies to make the

right choices, and to provide the best media for a

given situation.

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The role of media and new technology is to augment

human skills in our daily tasks, especially in

making seamless context-specific decisions for

our benefit, choosing to filter the most relevant

pieces of information to us anytime, and by providing

new tools for more efficient learning and

knowledge creation. Media is used as the all-covering

personal memory and learning enhancer.

Social forms of media activity is integrated with

the other types of the flows mediated by these

augmentation services. People alternate their media

use between digital media, paper media and

virtual worlds. All of these are highly personal

and tailored for individual media use.

New forms of structured metadata and encoded

ontologies have led to novel interactive knowledge

services. Using semantics is possible in various

different contents, services, processing, and distribution.

Overall, the understanding of how to encode

and use semantics and machine understandable

representation of common sense has grown

significantly in media products and services.

There is fierce competition in the market on who

can provide the best semantic assistants for people,

which are similar to the earlier visions of automated

intelligent agents 11 but combined with

human skills of professional media producers.

People have their personal services provided by a

ubiquitous servant that is always within reach.

New forms of communications are formed as

people are in dialogue with their assistants. When

everyone has his own virtual agent, the media

content is aggregated in a personal way.

Trusted agent service seeks constantly the sources

for information and advertisements that the person

needs. There is very little unwanted information,

but the assistant can provide enough of serendipity

to keep things interesting. Following news and

topical themes is significantly easier with personalized

information filters. In the morning people

receive their semantic forecast of the day: what

are the possibilities for the individual in entertainment,

work, everyday life, based on what the person

has indicated as willing to receive.

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Semantic assistant can act as an authorized representative

in some cases when the user is not available

for dialogue. The agent is also responsible

on how the visibility of personal information

should be dealt with outsiders, trusted parties,

family, friends, including information about

when the persona is available, where he is, with

whom, calendar information, etc. This digital

identity has a central role in everyday services.

For example, health services can be profiled

better from the point of view of personal needs.

Technological development is rapid providing us

with new forms of user interfaces, end devices,

and display technologies. The emphasis is on the

ease of uses of the technology. Natural speech

and gesture interfaces are in commonplace use in

human-computer interaction.

The systems will evolve in the direction of better

use of the emotional dimension in communications,

including the social context, which is also

observed by the assistant. This means that our

communications systems become much better in

understanding and conveying emotions, insights,

and knowledge between people, resulting in the

knowledge sharing personal radar. Significant

steps have been taken in computer-assisted human-centered

communication, where meanings

and human emotions are made more visible and

directly transferable with new technical means.

3.3 Vision for 2020

Media and communication industry is growing

and converging with the ICT industry, and the

role of ICT and media in our everyday lives will

increase. Home entertainment, ubiquitous information

technology and continuous net presence

open up new opportunities for the media industry.

At the same time, media companies face tremendous

challenges to keep their traditional position.

Mass media that is targeted to assumed segments of

largely homogeneous mass audience is facing new

competition from different forms of 1) narrowcast

11 Apple Knowledge Navigator video (1987, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGYFEI6uLy0) predicts an intuitive

tabletop PC, a world with intelligent systems and personal media “agents” that serve us in our daily tasks.


media: watchers, readers, listeners are moving

into new channels and audiences are fragmenting

into segments that may become unreachable by

traditional means, and 2) prosumer media, which

is created by users and amateur producers complementing

professionally created media.

Because of these new challenges, media industry

that limits itself to a narrow view of media will

cover only a small part of the overall media industry

field. Especially, it leaves outside the “medial”

viewpoint on communication in our everyday

life: ICT-based communication services, digital

services, and information intensive work. In

all of these areas people produce, consume and

distribute “media”, which has not traditionally

been considered to be within the field of media industry.

However, this has been recognized as a

major new opportunity for the ICT industry.

The importance of multinational giants in media

content and digital services is growing, and the

production is increasingly global using digital

channels for distribution. This opens up many

questions for a small nation such as Finland. The

local media markets have been protected partially

because of the small market size, long distance

and esoteric language. Where will the media content

be created in the future? What is the role of

Finnish media companies in this new situation?

Finnish vision for 2020

To be internationally competitive, we need to be

able to make selections on where we want to develop

our competence and where it is realistic to

reach global impact. Based on our analysis we

have formulated the following vision for Finnish

media and communication sector for the year

2020.

Finland is a proactive and daring flagship

of the changing media environment for

learning, well-being and entertainment.

Figure 3.3 shows how this vision is formed. It

uses three larger drivers as a background, which

are 1) rapid development of technology, 2) media

as an enabler in societal and business practices,

and 3) changing role of users and bigger

consumer power.

Figure 3.3. Vision and goals for the Finnish converging media and

communications sector in the year 2020

19


The vision takes its basis from the current status

of technically capable Finland, with high level of

competence in key media technology areas: open

media platforms, mobile internet, and combinations

of print and electronic media. These technical

possibilities can be considered to be a solid

basis for building new user-centered media services.

The next step is to set our ambition level higher.

We need to experiment with novel service concepts

broadly, evaluate them in large-scale international

trials, and use co-development and open

innovation methods to build thriving laboratories

for service generation. This should be complemented

with clever business models that will

work locally as well as in large target markets.

It is important to note that this vision is quite technology-neutral,

and emphasizes instead three

possible breakthrough areas for media content

and services: learning, well-being and entertainment.

The choice of these three domains will be

motivated later in this text.

This main vision includes also several sub-goals

that are relevant to reach the proposed vision:

Finland has a broad base of successful media

industry including content production, media

delivery and end devices.

Finnish media sector is uniquely focused, profitable

and internationally recognized dynamic

global actor.

Finland is a model country in development and

use of human-centric and multi-cultural media

and communications services.

Finland values knowledge, and, above all, it resides

in human networks and in their embedded

social capital. Media’s role broadens from

journalistically produced content to a very

large basis of interactive – dialogue-like –

knowledge, information and entertainment.

Finnish companies are leading players in this

growing area.

Finland has provided a fruitful grounds and

possibilities for new types of services that

build on user creativity and human-centricity.

The product innovations are on demand, competitive

and contribute positively to the sustainable

global development.

20

There is a continuing need to secure the Finns

with multi-faceted and high quality media and

communication services, which will satisfy

the ever-changing needs of work and leisure

time.

Finland is internationally recognized as an innovation

centre for media and communications

domain, and leading country within EU

in the selected areas of learning, well-being

and entertainment.

Where is Finland coming behind other

countries?

Leadership internationally. According to the

Delphi survey conducted as part of this foresight

work, Finland does not currently have a leadership

position in media technology, media industry

or technologies for human communications

(Figure 3.4).

This result can be seen as slightly surprising and

might reflect the nature of the questions in the

Delphi study. It is clear that the Nokia-led mobile

communications cluster in Finland is at the top

class locally, and is building technology for human

communications. However, Nokia has only

recently made important strategic moves to becoming

more a media and service provider and

not only a mobile device manufacturer. Another

way to interpret these results is that they are reflecting

the competitive edge that Finland has in

this sector “besides Nokia”.

Business models for new services. It is obviously

important to understand what mechanisms are

driving the creation of sustainable business models

for new services. In many ways one of the reason

of the slowing down of investments in this

sector in the early 2000s was the critical attitude

towards any new development which does not

base itself from the start on some easily graspable

business logic. However, many recent media innovations

have been created without a clear business

model in mind. One lesson to learn from an

example like the phenomenal growth of Google is

that innovation may lead to global excellence,

which may lead to attractive user base, which

again may lead to the emergence of a working

business model. Sometimes the “big things” are


Area 1: Media technology for different use contexts

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to the top level in

the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 2,6)

(18.1) Leading

2,2% 1

(18.2) Among the top

53,3% 24

(18.3) Agerage

33,3% 15

(18.4) Somewhat behind

4,4% 2

(18.5) Behind

6,7% 3

(18.6) Do not know

0% 0

Area 2: Media convergence and media industry

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to the top level in

the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 2,8)

(30.1) Leading

(30.2) Among the top

(30.3) Agerage

(30.4) Somewhat behind

(30.5) Behind

(30.6) Do not know

not based on any traditional business model

(Linux, WWW, Apache, Wikipedia,). Here we

need better understanding of “open and free”, and

incentives behind these efforts. It has been shown

many times that progress and innovation can happen

without any drive for profits, or that profitable

business can emerge as a side effect after

there has been enough interest and enthusiasm to

provide a free and open infrastructure. We see

this phenomenon over and over again in open

source and open content projects, but do not fully

understand the value creation mechanisms.

2,2%

40%

42,2%

4,4%

8,9%

2,2%

Area 3: Technologies to support human communication

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to the top level in

the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3)

(46.1) Leading

(46.2) Among the top

(46.3) Agerage

(46.4) Somewhat behind

(46.5) Behind

(46.6) Do not know

Figure 3.4. Results of the Delphi survey on Finland’s international leadership

2,2%

26,1%

54,3%

10,9%

4,3%

2,2%

1

18

19

2

4

1

1

12

25

5

2

1

Access to capital and entrepreneurial spirit. International

marketing and sales has been traditionally

a weak point for the Finnish growth industries.

There has been significant improvements

in this area, but Finns could be still be

better in selling the ideas and commercializing

them globally. Having access to capital to fund

new promising ideas continues to be a bottleneck

in Finland. Also, people are often unwilling to

take the role of the entrepreneur, which is often

explained by cultural factors and lack of incentives

due to high taxation.

21


Comparing Finland with Japan

Japan has been the dominant actor in home electronics

and cameras. Finland has not had a strong

position as a dominant home electronics manufacturer.

However, because of the dominant role

of Nokia, it has been successful in keeping the position

of global leader in mobile telephony. The

integration of cameras into phones has also made

Nokia the world’s largest camera manufacturer in

terms of camera units sold.

Japan is at the forefront globally in developing

new ubiquitous services for everyday use. It has

shown way in such areas as mobile internet use

and mobile payment solutions. Finland has also

been at the cutting edge in experimenting new

forms of services over the year, but the systemic

approach in launching services for large-scale

use and exploiting the available platforms to

build new globally unique business has not yet

materialized in a big scale. This may change,

however, partially due to strong emphasis placed

by Nokia in novel mobile media services.

Japanese popular culture has been becoming more

and more visible globally in the recent years, especially

through manga, anime, films, and also some

distinctly Japanese computer games. Finnish culture,

on the other hand, is globally quite unknown.

One can even claim that there are no major globally

leading cultural product genres coming from

Finland at the moment, as the successes in other

digitized cultural products are relatively rare and

isolated.

Japan is the leading actor globally in traditional

computer games: it provides both the best dedicated

game devices (Sony and Nintendo), and

leads the way globally in defining the gaming

culture. The latest global success story of Wii

gaming console has made Nintendo the third

largest company in Japan after Toyota and

Mitsubishi by market capitalization. 12 Finland

does not have a major position in global gaming

industry. Finnish game companies have been

successful with individual game titles by high

quality studios like Remedy, mobile game de-

22

velopment, and social gaming services that mix

casual gaming with participative media (Habbo

Hotel). However, the gaming industry in Finland

is still in its infancy.

What are the central national initiatives

now?

This is a partial list of on-going efforts in Finland

related to the vision:

Newly formed Ministry of Employment and

the Economy

Tekes on-going programs: VERSO, VAMOS,

Ubicom, TILA

Nokia’s strategic shift into becoming a significant

internet service company

Industry R&D

Active participation in EU research

programmes

E-government services

Dimes

Forum Virium

ICT SHOK, Tivit, and Flexible Services SRA

Forest cluster SHOK

Various Living Labs initiatives

(Finnlab Oulu/Turku, Helsinki Area)

Finnish game industry cluster

Innoprint - innovative printing industry

Helsinki Innovation University

3.4 Roadmap

This chapter introduces seven identified solution

areas to reach the vision of the previous chapter,

and then specifies a more detailed roadmap for

three of these. The solution areas can be characterized

as follows:

1. Open media platforms. Open platforms

should be supported so that we have an advantage

in building the new services more flexibly;

open models are supporting professional

content creation and can benefit from different

forms of “collective intelligence” of people.

2. Mobile Internet. The new possibilities of

ubiquitous media are in many ways related to

the possibilities of future mobile internet devel-

12 Financial Times, Jan 4 2008 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b748f350-baeb-11dc-9fbc-0000779fd2ac.html)


opment. This future ubimedia platform consists

of many new business enablers, such as:

– Ubiquitous information flows: we can turn

any information source to a data flow that is

available anywhere.

– Positioning of people and things: cheap indoor

and outdoor positioning technologies

for new media services that are dependent

on context information, such as location

sensitive advertising.

– Sensors everywhere: using sensors at home,

at work in our surroundings to make smarter

systems, help ICT solutions to recognize the

state of the environment and adapt to it, and

increase human awareness of effects of our

own everyday behavior.

– Displays everywhere: we can expect the

growth in various types of electronic display

technologies, and we are rapidly moving

from approximately 10 digital displays

to 100 displays per household; how will this

change our media behavior?

– Ubiquitous data security: reliability of information,

data security and trustworthy infrastructure

become more important over

time, and Finland can be well-positioned to

be competitive in this market.

Nokia wants to more open and concentrating

on the Internet and new services. Nokia’s business

activity is currently bigger than the music

business or camera business globally, and

these industries could be directed by Nokia, if

they so wish. Finland should make sure that

there exists a new R&D and business cluster

around the evolving Nokia. By building a

strong mobile services cluster around Nokia,

Finland can leapfrog from the current status of

mediocrity in internet services onto one of the

major global developers.

3. Culture and entertainment. Can we make

something of a major scale with Finnish culture?

This is not so much about exporting

Finnish cultural products, but to export services

that are rooted in the Finnish culture and

have global reach and demand. The ways of

operation are becoming more based on networks,

new partnerships, growing economies;

international collaboration in the different axis

of cultural exchange. Many of the most important

game developers of Europe are in Nordic

countries, and the hope is that we can come up

with novel mixtures with global partnerships.

How about Nintendo Kalevala?

4. Learning. Understanding that democratic access

to information and learning has been one

of Finland’s keys to success. By raising the

knowledge level of the whole nation has allowed

to find resources for demanding tasks

that has risen the country at the top international

level, for example in telecommunications.

General media skills are at a high level in

Finland, and this needs to be retained, but we

should also be able to transform these into internationally

important products. Instead of

mechanistic information gathering we need

people who are highly skilled in information

refining, knowledge creation and exploitation.

We are moving from one-way teaching from

pupils to learners towards community-centric

learning. New forms of community-centric

learning, using new technologies are needed to

support discovery, insight creation and interpretation

will replace the existing learning

practices.

5. Well-being and sustainable living. ICT and

media tools are both a problem and a potential

solution. ICT may decrease the everyday mobility

thus reducing the normal physical activity

level. Then again, there is a big opportunity

to develop new solutions and services that motivate

people to stay in shape (e.g., life span

monitoring of health). Environmental theme is

rising from various directions and IT and media

has an important role to play in sustainable

development. Sustainable development puts

pressure on supporting new forms of behavior

related to consumption, mobility and tourism,

which all have links to uses of media technology

and new services. All in all, Finland could

be a model country for sustainable living and

the usage of IT.

6. Print 2.0. Publishing, print communication

and ICT combined with new products and services

is a unique combination globally, and

fundamental for the Finnish industrial structure.

There is a need to redefine the role of

print products in the future landscape of media

use, as media, ICT and paper industry have a

joint future.

23


7. User-centered media. Media’s role will develop

based on observed everyday life of people.

New media breakthroughs come through

projects that involve users from an early stage.

This requires constant measuring, modeling

and development in product design resulting

in continuing perfection of services, media

and design.

In addition we considered the following as supporting

solution areas: 1) IPR-basis: new business

models make new kinds of IPR-practices; we need

to re-organize the IPR status quo in a radically different

way, and 2) innovation environment; increase

R&D funding to the development communities;

increase risk funding; experimentation and

risk-taking aside entrepreneurship; user communities

should join the development processes.

In our analysis we chose three of these solution

areas for further analysis: user-centered media,

open media platforms, and print 2.0. This was

more due to the interests of panel participants

than due to them being relatively the most important

solutions.

User-centered media

Integrating “consumer-driven” and “interactive”

to modes of thinking and measurement tools of the

media industry is important. This underlines how

far the traditional media business has moved from

providing a service for individual people (based on

their individual needs) as well as having a real dialogue

between the media professionals and their

customers. Many media products are created with

the advertisers in mind, and the tools for audience

clustering, such as attitude/values based RISC

analysis, are becoming outdated. There is a new

set of skills that the traditional media industry

needs to learn on how to understand what the customers

need, and it looks like that it is other new

players that are taking that role and doing it instead

A key characteristic of the Internet era is that media

is becoming more a service than a packaged

product. This has to be reflected in how the business

is conducted. Mobile is becoming as powerful

as PC technology and the two might largely

merge by the year 2020.

24

It seems that the advertising business model is rising

in prominence and will be even more important

than before. However, there is very strong

business drive towards customized and contextdependent

advertising (just watch what Google is

doing). The old models of segmenting, targeting

and measuring audiences do not apply as such.

People in the industry (professional media and advertising)

talk about fragmentation as a problem,

when in fact it is just as well could be considered as

better customer service.

Behaviorial analysis necessitates rich means to

observe, analyze and utilize human behavior.

Better understanding of media user experience is

important, and human-centric and multi-disciplinary

media research is needed for this purpose.

Collecting dynamically and in real time information

about the use of products and services is a

key skill for human-centric development. This results

in making constant changes and revisions in

the services, thus shortening the development cycles

drastically. Swarm behavior is different than

uses of current social media, and we can provide

new forms of following how the flocks behave

and move vis-a-vis each other. Here new mobile

Internet tools are the key enabler.

There needs to be ways to measure success and

excellence of user interfaces better. Conceptualizing

the Social UI may become a critical new

business enabler. People need better tools to control

their presence in different social circles.

Prosumer UIs are also different that consumer

UIs, and understanding this difference is critical.

Finally, here is a list of other conditions relevant

for human-centric development:

Local content in local language is not disappearing,

and this is not so much connected to

the changes in journalism and journalistic content.

However, the segment that wants to experience

big media in the original language is

growing.

Self-service society is a global phenomena, and

Finland becoming the #1 in ICT-enabled self

service concepts.


Figure 3.5. User-centered media roadmap

Generational differences means that seniors

and young people have changing practices in

communications.

Elegant design is based on high skills in the

media and service design, where there is vast

potential in Finland, which we have not yet

been able to exploit in esign of media content

and services.

Interface is the key. We need to get away from

the mechanistic user interface. Technology

and media becomes anthropomorphized when

we add humanistic understanding to technology.

Measuring humans (physiological signals,

simplistic design) becomes more relevant,

as well as building systems that react to

human emotions.

Device is the challenge: Agent or assistant technology

is adjusting to the user and resulting in

the need for effective direct and indirect control

mechanisms on media devices. Best assistants

makes a good and systematic analysis of the

world for us, and understand human language.

Open media platforms

Open development and innovation models are fast

spreading in different areas of digital industry. Media

industry is striving toward media products and

services, where the traditional forms of production

are joined with production and distribution structures

typical to Internet (e.g. open source software).

Also, the technical basis of media industry

is shifting from standard-centricity to “open solution”-centricity,

where on-going big wave is open

platforms for media content management and distribution,

as well as open interfaces between web

services, and resulting service mashups. Equally

strongly, we see this same trend clearly in virtual

environments and online games.

Big ICT actors are promoting open environments,

and Linux is an example of a vast global

success story in this area. Finnish hackers have

been major initiators of this and other software

initiatives that have grown into significant global

scale. Sometimes these projects bring nice na-

25


tional PR, which of course helps our small country,

but may not bring so much business benefits.

Openness has proven to be an effective means to

create new services, and in general openness belief

is currently strong. This is largely based on

the idea that the actor who is able to develop the

open and central hubs for activity will understand

before others what the business model is that will

support the emerging activity in the long run.

This model has worked especially well for

Google (but not so well for some others). The meter

for success should be whether Finland has

been able to create significant amount of new

business growth based on the open initiatives, or

gained other measurable indirect benefits, such

as significantly raising the local knowledge level.

This latter may be a suitable criteria to assess the

importance of Linux on Finland.

Open models of knowledge creation and innovation

take time as there a strong cultural shift that needs to

26

Figure 3.6. Detailed roadmap of the open media platforms

take place. User participation demands some form

of openness from the actors anyway, and Finnish attitudes

are positively inclined towards openness.

However, there is a global level business risk, as international

actors don’t necessarily reciprocate with

Finnish openness. We are still in the middle of the

first generation in this shift.

Open platform can be a relevant component to

make the cultural goal of our vision possible. This

has been successfully applied in games business

where the success of many game developers lies

in giving the user community enough tools and

flexibility to tailor the original products and come

up with derived or totally new ideas. Professional

media production can therefore benefit significantly

from user innovations. This can be observed,

for example, in the international success

story of Sulake’s Habbo Hotel, where the interesting

part of the service is user-driven innovation

using simple rooms and virtual furniture as

building blocks for new mini-service innovations

inside the virtual environment.


There needs to be core actors that are located in

Finland, but we also need to be open to all local

and international actors. In the ICT sector at

large, there is already a multitude of companies

that are building their business on the open source

model, but doing integration and services. The

same applies to digital media content.

Open innovation models works particularly well

for new media content and services for the benefit

of the public sector. There are many large-scale

efforts that have the goal of creating major assets

of media available. Some of these collaborative

peer produced media products are generated by

active user communities, such as Wikipedia. The

underlying content production platform, Wiki, is

an open user interface innovation as such.

Open business models can become an integral

part of media company strategy and actions.

However, it must be acknowledged that the business

models and benefits of fully open IPR model

are still quite foggy. New models may be needed,

Figure 3.7. Print 2.0 roadmap

and the example of dual-licensing from open

source software may also be relevant here.

Print 2.0

Print media is not disappearing, although forest

sector is facing important long-term challenges in

keeping the position it has today on the media

market. There is a need to rethink what paper-based

products are good for in the future, and

most likely they will develop and to get new features

in the future.

In many ways paper is still superior to electronic

equivalents. However, new paper-like displays

are being developed. These are typically called

e-paper displays. Printed electronics make paper

into a possible technical platform for logic circuits

and embedded electronic displays. There

are several competing technology alternatives in

this space. It is still unclear what is the role of

Finnish companies will be in this development.

So far this has concentrated on embedded sensors

27


and remote identification of smart fibre-based

packaging using RFID tags. However, there is

still little that indicate that traditional paper companies,

such as UPM, would like to become a significant

manufacturer of ubiquitous paper-like

electronic displays.

ICT & Forest industry: cross-sector

collaboration

Finland has world leading expertise in ICT sector

and the forest sector, and media and communications

sector overlaps to a large degree with both.

It is of great national importance for Finland how

these three sectors could succeed in working

closer together to develop new solutions and new

products. However, it can argued that not too

much has been achieved in this industrial

multi-sector collaboration. This is also mirrored

in the recently established national strategic

R&D cluster structure (SHOKs), where the current

crisp division into “forest cluster” and “ICT

cluster” provides little incentives for cross-cluster

collaboration.

Most initiatives to do this collaboration concretely

have been based on ideas for new technical

innovations, such as functionality that allows

novel combinations of fibre-based products and

electronic media. This has been termed as “hybrid

media”. However, despite several years of

research, this concept has not gained any significant

momentum internationally. So far, only few

new truly hybrid media companies have emerged

in Finland. Rapidly growing area of printed electronics

and novel paper-like displays is not particularly

strong in Finland commercially despite the

R&D effort taken.

Combining social digital media with print

The paper products, such as printed newsletters

for associations, are still highly valuable and effective

form of social media. What has changed is

that they have become easier to produce due to

expansion of desktop publishing and they can be

more interactive and reflect the opinions of the

28

members better due to increasing use of electronic

media.

When new innovations are considered on the web

and the Internet, the paper is almost always neglected

as a possible media. The problem is that

paper is seen as old and uninteresting technology.

There are also only few web-based tools and services

for people to re-invent paper products themselves.

A lesson learned from the ICT sector is to be open

and facilitate innovation among the end users. To

achieve this the pulp and paper industry must take

an active role in enabling regular people to be creative

with paper, especially using digital tools and

online collaboration. New business models for

small-scale publishing allow for different forms

of publishing 13 . The point is that the new innovative

uses for paper could start from better use digital

tools and online collaboration, which has

been witnessed to work on the all-digital media

use, and closer interaction with the users and getting

inspiration from the everyday changes in

people’s lives.

User-centric print products

Paper industry has traditionally done relatively little

user-centric R&D and could learn from the

methods now commonplace in ICT, such as such

as human-centric design and user-generated content.

This could help in defining how media use in

everyday life is changing and exploring innovatively

new uses for paper.

The pulp and paper business may be interested to

come up with new innovative consumer products

and services. Paper industry should also accept

new design and business perspectives. It may be

useful to compare the situation of some hardware

and software giants (Intel, Microsoft, Nokia) and

paper industry. The ICT industry is adapted to understanding

the everyday life context of their new

products and is willing to invest major amounts of

funding to use their own R&D for creation of new

markets for the IT core products, such as micro-

13 This is nicely demonstrated by an innovative online service called Lulu.com, which has shown that self-publishing of

books can be fun, easy, and affordable.


processors, operating systems and telecommunications

hardware.

It should be the role of the paper industry to show

both consumers and businesses that paper is often

far superior to digital alternatives. However, the

situation is changing and the pressures to cut

costs to keep in line with the sinking markets and

diminishing profits often means that little is left

aside for truly novel thinking.

3.5 Conclusions and

recommendations

The key driving force behind the changes in the

media industry is the rapid development of ICT,

which has given users more power to control their

media use and brought digital media production

and distribution within the reach of everyone.

Mobile devices that can be also used for instant

capture of reasonably high quality media accelerate

this trend. The challenges are growing, and

the importance of this area is rising to a new scale

Why?

Drivers

and

trends

What?

Central

solutions

How?

– skills

– practices

– co-operation

for Finland enabling new societal and business

practices and forming a large converging media

cluster.

Figure 3.8 summarizes the work at a higher level,

identifying the main drivers, solutions and central

actions to reach the identified vision and identified

goals. Our proposed vision is largely based

on building excellence in new forms of media

content and services, but many of the solutions

and key enablers are less directly media content

related.

The proposed initiatives needed to reach the

goals are as follows:

Media cluster development: It is important to

recognize that the Finnish media cluster

should be tightened, and it should have a stronger

supporting R&D network and international

contacts behind it. Media cluster should be

closely connected to nearby clusters. There are

unique skills in Finland but they are spread too

thin. New ways of functioning and collaboration

are needed, and this necessitates global

Consumers, media and digital convergence

Changing role of user

and bigger consumer

power

User centered media

Understanding of user driven

media development and

business models

Investment in

R&D and education

Print 2.0 Mobile internet

Media cluster

development

Media as enabler in

new societal and

business practices

Rapid development of

ICT technolgy

Learning Wellbeing Culture

Good innovation

environment

Co-operation between

different authorities

and public agencies

Figure 3.8. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals

Open media

platforms

IPR rules enabling

new business

29


30

networks and internationally visible flagship

actors. We have also a good technological level

to start innovating on, but new investments

need to be made in strategically chosen content

and service domains. Our proposal is that

learning, well-being and entertainment hold

the biggest promise as areas for content and

media services. For example, gaming industry

has been identified as a potential growth sector

in Finland and this is a good start. Finland is

well-positioned in games business due to a

strong mix of programming skills, hacker culture

and digital design. With adequate support

for development and access to capital this sector

could develop into the cultural powerhouse

of the Finnish content industry. Being one of

the top five game media countries globally, and

a leader in some of the fastest growing sectors

of games and synthetic worlds, should be chosen

as a national goal.

Understanding of user-driven media development

and business models: We need experimental

settings for constant experimentation,

and citizens and prospective users should

embrace these national and local initiatives

and participate actively. There are many living

labs initiatives currently being run and prepared,

but it is important that these are truly

reaching the everyday lives of people, or rather

that they are even welcomed as an integral part

of it. One solution is to think of this concept of

living labs from a non-media and IT-centric

viewpoint. There are also some important

user-initiated innovation events and platforms,

such as the “Assembly”-grass roots

level event for gamers. The Finnish media

business actors should be leading in the world

in promoting open user innovation, and also

understanding its commercial potential and

connected business models. Media is also increasingly

a means for self-reflection and pursuing

personal goals. This makes it more understandable,

why so many amateurs are willing

to participate in the media production. Finland

should take a leading role in creating

do-it-yourself media tools and platforms to

further fuel this change.

Investment in R&D and education: There is

a need to increase R&D funding in the media

cluster. It has typically utilized new technology

only when it has matured long enough, and

“cutting edge” and “permanent beta” are quite

strange modes of operation for the traditional

media industry, where high reliability and

journalistic integrity are the key values.

Change will result from a combination of attitude

shift in established companies towards

R&D, new clusters of start-ups, targeted research

programs and expertise networks, and

better quality universities. There is a need to

significantly improve the quality and scope of

interactive digital media research and education

in Finland, and quality has to be at the top

international level. We need multi-disciplinary

education from various domains related to the

media field, and concerns especially the humanistic

and societal areas. The journalism education

should be developed, but there should

also be more emphasis on media service innovation

and media management. The new “Innovation

University” can have a key role,

bringing together the viewpoints of technology,

business and human-centered design

skills.

Good innovation environment: New positive

business thinking is required: we need concrete

initiatives to help forming of new businesses

and encouraging risk-taking that is targeted

for international success. This necessitates

new initiatives for higher education and

venturing. We need to build a culture that tolerates

failure in business ventures. More business

expertise is required. From interesting

and potential areas of content there is too long

way to products, markets and business. This

could be a good challenge for SITRA, and they

should be involved more in planning. There

needs to be new types of business connected to

campuses and their vicinity, where new generations

of media use will be incubated and new

forms of knowledge creation is to flourish. The

sector would benefit from professorships,

which are partly in the university and partly in

companies.


IPR rules enabling new business: IPR is central

to media business, but it can act locally either

as a hindrance or as an enabler. IPR legislation

needs to be internationally reconsidered,

for example to better support open innovation

practices in media. How much would different

IPR rules change things? Legislation regarding

owner and consumer rights to media is also far

from perfect. The unwanted or uncontrolled

usage of the P2P file sharing has been the reason

for fierce opposition from the part of the

content owners. However, to consumers P2P

presents a new relatively easy-to-use channel

to search and find content without leaving

home, and many are neglecting the IPR laws

because of this convenience and availability of

media.

Co-operation between different authorities

and funding agencies: We need to make conscious

choices on where to put the emphasis,

and government officials should share the

common vision. New tools and funding structures

might be necessary, and the ICT SHOK

could be important for the future of media.

However, current plans include only a small

fragment that is concentrating on media, and

this will not be large enough. We should also

promote the capabilities and new media literacy

of Finnish citizens at large (LVM, OPM).

31


4 Health in aging society

Raimo Sepponen,

Helsinki University of Technology

Panel chairman

Raimo Sepponen,

Helsinki University of Technology

Panel members

Timo Ekroos, ISAK

Jarmo Eskelinen, Forum Virium

Pentti Itkonen,

Ministry of Social Affairs and Health

Pekka Kahri, Tekes

Pirkko Karjalainen, Central Union for

the Welfare of the Aged

Mauno Konttinen,

Stakes – National Research and

Development Centre for Welfare and Health

Samuli Saarni,

National Public Health Institute in Finland

Niilo Saranummi, Tekes

Hilkka Tervaskari, Finnish Wellbeing Center Oy

Erkki Vauramo,

Helsinki University of Technology / HEMA

32

4.1 Introduction

Aging of the Finnish population

The aging of population is a challenge facing developed

and some developing nations. Finland is

one of the forerunners in getting old. The challenge

culminates just in the period which is targeted

in this foresight report (Figure 4.1). During

this foresight period the number of people living

on a pension is high mostly due to the “baby

boom” after the Second World War. The size of

the aged population compared to the size of the

population of people in active work during the period

2025 -2030 will be higher in Finland than in

any other EU country.

This development will lead to increased spending

on both health and social care. The expected

Figure 4.1. The age distribution of the Finnish population in years 1910–2040.

Source: Pekka Parkkinen


1950

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Lapset 0–19-vuotiaat

Lähteet: Tilastokeskus (2004) ja Tilastokeskuksen väestötilastot vuodesta 1950 lähtien

length of life in 2050 is predicted to be about 3,5

years longer than today. Hence, the oldest age

group will be the fastest growing part of the population

(Figure 4.2).

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

Työikäiset (20–60-v.)

65–74-vuotiaat

75–84-vuotiaat

85–110-vuotiaat

0

Eläkeläiset 65–110-v.

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Figure 4.2. The subgroups of the aged segment of population 1950–2040.

Source: Pekka Parkkinen

Lähde: Sosiaali- ja terveysministeriöstä (Veli Laine) saatu data

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

The use of health and social care services and

needs of support will increase when a person gets

older (Figure 4.3). Therefore, the aging itself is

not only determinant of the increased costs but

also the health status of aging population.

0

0

0–4 10–14 20–24 30–34 40–44 50–54 60–64 70–74 70–84 90–94 100–

Figure 4.3a. Average personal health care costs of municipalities in 1000 by age groups.

Source: Pekka Parkkinen

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

33


The increase of mental and physical disabilities is

inevitable as the population is aging (Figure 4.4).

There are, however, possibilities still to influence

the pace of this process.

During the foresight period there are only limited

capabilities to change the costs of health care delivery

for people with diagnosed chronic illnesses.

There are also limited possibilities to develop new

measures of preventive health care. However, by

utilizing the knowledge that already exists, improving

organisation and fully exploiting the tech-

34

15 %

10 %

6 %

3 %

1 %

11 %

43 %

8 %

3 %

0 – 6

7 – 16

17 – 19

20 – 64

65 – 74

75 – 84

85 – 89

90 – 94

95 –

Figure 4.3b. The division of health care costs by the age groups.

Source: Erkki Vauramo

nology we have, we may be able to avoid the resource

crisis that faces us in the future. In the

course of doing so, we may even introduce new

product and service concepts into society.

We need methods and practices to identify individuals

at the highest risk for the major chronic

diseases-atherosclerosis, heart failure, cancer, diabetes,

alcohol-related diseases and neurodegenerative

and psychiatric disorders – those

things that account for the bulk of heath care expenditures

(Figure 4.5 and 4.6).

Figure 4.4. Disability in different age groups. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Report on Americans with Disabilities: 1994-95, P70-61 (August 1997)


Figure 4.5. Probability to suffer at some stage of life from cancer.

Source: Cancer Society of Finland

The prevalence of the chronic illnesses increases

by age. There will be many individuals

suffering from more than one of the above mentioned

pathological conditions and therefore,

require continuous medical care from several

specialists.

The current health care system is neither flexible

nor well adapted to the changing patient profile. It

is divided into different disciplines that seek to

target the curing of diseases and injuries. In future

there will be more and more patients with a number

of incurable degenerative diseases, which are

sometimes combined with traumas. The goal of

the care may not always be a complete cure of the

pathology. Instead the treatment may be targeting

to make the quality of life as high as possible during

the remaining few years of life.

35


The field of health care is rather conservative and

the process of implementing changes occurs

slowly. There are responsibilities which must be

redefined and revenues that must be redirected.

Both these issues make the system slow to change

without strong initiatives from the government.

New models of preventive health care delivery

are needed. Such models should serve the dual

goals of improving outcomes while controlling

costs. The quality of the services must be defined.

One must establish proper quantitative and qualitative

measures to determine if a specific change

actually leads to the desired improvement.

The responsibility of each individual of his or her

health must be emphasized more than has been

done so in the past. It has been suggested that the

poor cost - benefit performance of USA health care

is partially due to the bad lifestyle choices of people.

Low levels of physical activity, combined with a

high caloric and fatty diet are proving to be behind

the chronic conditions mentioned above. Being

overweight with increased intra- and extra-abdominal

fat can lead to metabolic disorders and adult

type of diabetes. Many scientifically sound studies

published recently support this.

36

MILJ EUROA

1 800

Kustannusennusteet

1600

eksponentiaalinen ennuste

asiantuntija arvioihin perustuva

1400

regressioennuste

1 200

1 000

800

600

400

200

0

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Figure 4.6. Prediction of the cancer related health care costs.

Source: Cancer Society of Finland

2012

2013

2014

2015

Policymakers also should focus on ways to reduce

cancer, heart disease and lung disease. Stepped-up

efforts to reduce tobacco use, control blood pressure,

reduce cholesterol and regulate blood sugar

are required. (Dr. Christopher Murray, head of the

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the

University of Washington)

The lifestyle of Finnish population is following

that of the USA. The importance of diet, weight

control and proper physical exercise has been

demonstrated in a number of well controlled

studies. The difficult question is how to change

the life style of the majority of the population.

There has been one success story about 30 years

ago: the North Karelia project. Today we are in

need of a similar success story – but the circumstances

are far more challenging. Finland is not

anymore such a homogenous nation it once was

and there are strong factors, which are opposing

any positive changes in the lifestyle of the population.

The challenge should be faced by addressing

the whole health continuum, which is depicted

in Figure 4.7.


CARE of

ILLNESS

SELF

CARE

Home care &

Independent

living

Active Health

“Worried Well”

Fitness

PRO-

ACTIVE

Development of the Finnish economy

The social and health care institutions in Finland are

mainly funded through direct taxation of the population.

Even now when the relationship between

working population and people living on pension is

favourable the taxation level remains high. The

well-being of Finland is also very dependent on the

volume of exported goods. Because Finnish economy

needs an increasing amount of imported raw

materials and energy, it is necessary also to have

strong exports. In the long run, the trade balance

should be positive. The world economy is changing

due to globalisation and there will be tough competition

between nations to secure investments. Finland

is a relatively small market and is not such an

attractive target for foreign investors when compared

to many other places in both Europe and

Asia. During this foresight period, however, the

Baltic countries and especially Russia are developing

rapidly. Finland seems rather well positioned

to enter these neighbouring markets. Unfortunately,

this potential has not yet been fully realized

and Finland is being left behind both Sweden

and Germany in exploring one of the fastest growing

markets in the world.

Continuum of health and illness

Ageing Independently

Ambient Assisted Living Disease

Wellness

management

Elevated

risk factors

Figure 4.7. The health continuum concept.

Management

Chronic

disease

Rehabilitation

Acute Care

Acute

illness

(episode)

RE-

ACTIVE

As we are now aware that the costs of the maintaining

the welfare state in Finland will increase

steadily, both productivity and volume of exports

must increase correspondingly. There are at least

two serious threats, which may make these goals

difficult to reach: There will be shortages in the

labour force and the terms of trade are getting

lower due to the increasing costs of energy and

raw materials (Figure 4.8). Furthermore the

added value typically associated with Finnish

products is getting lower. It may be noted that the

terms of trade of Denmark and Sweden have not

decreased since 1995. This indicates that the innovation

process and characteristics of industry

in those countries are superior compared those of

Finland.

The export of high technology products was 30 %

from total value of export in year 2000. This share

had fallen to about 25 % by 2005. This development

leads to the awkward situation that highly

educated Finland imports expensive products but

only exports low cost products. It is clear that low

cost products will be manufactured in countries

where the costs are much lower than in developed

37


EU countries. The competition will seriously affect

the volume of the Finnish manufacturing industry.

It has been predicted that after five years the public

sector will absorb all the work force which

will enter the labour market. Of course, this is not

feasible in practice but it is a clear indication of

the need of radical changes in the production of

services. Hopefully the PARAS-reform of municipalities

will produce the expected results. The

reduction of the total labour force of Finland will

be about 200 000 during next 25 years. Partly this

reduction may be compensated by better organisation

of work using new methods and techniques.

Finland will also inveigle workers from

other countries. However, there will be a great

need of new labour force in neighbouring countries

and not insignificantly in economically rising

Russia.

The current (not explicitly stated) strategy is to

produce more the same but with a higher efficiency.

When this factor is combined with the

drastically shrinking pool of available labour, the

unhappy outcome is obvious. There is an urgent

need to invigorate the birth of new innovative

growth companies.

38

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

88

86

84

82

80

78

Vientihinnat/tuontihinnat (1995=100)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Figure 4.8. Development of terms of trade of Finland. Source: Tilastokeskus

The investments in R&D after the IT bubble have

been rather modest. The major industrial sectors

of Finland are investing inadequate resources in

R&D. (In order to get the true picture of the situation

the R&D investments of Nokia should be

considered separately). The introduction of new

products will take generally more than five years,

often as long as 10 – 15 years. Therefore, the low

level of R&D investments will have a significant

negative impact on the economy during this foresight

period.

The net investments in Finland are rather modest

and only partly directed to the industry (Figure

4.9). When this is combined with the low domestic

investment level, the economy is not capable

of supporting any development of Finland’s competitive

export industry. The low investment level

is reflected in the decrease in the number of

growth companies (Figure 4.10).

The increased growth of the service sector has

been noticeably fast and this has also reduced the

interest to invest in manufacturing industry.

There is a general belief among economists and

business analysts that the future industrial products

will be manufactured in countries where the

labour and raw material costs are lowest. When

this trend is weighted against the high level of


Milj. euroa

9 000

8 000

7 000

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

0

8 549

2 941

taxation and the kind of support policy it can be

easily predicted that the developed EU countries

and especially Finland will all be losers in this

game. There is, however, still an export growth in

the industrial sectors where good design, high

quality and technological ingenuity remain as the

competitive edge. By investing in research, development

and in the innovation process Finland

may partly avoid stagnation destined for the

2 418

3 158

2 059

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Figure 4.9. The net investments in Finland. Source: The Bank of Finland

Amount

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

162

Fast Growing Companies in Finland

89

92

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure 4.10. Growth companies in Finland. Source: Sorvisto+ Balance Consulting &

Kauppalehti, 2005

85

economy. Unfortunately, this has still not been realized

by the government and it will take the hard

lessons of a severe economical crisis before

something will really begin to happen to strike at

the root causes of the problem.

It seems that Finland must take care of the aging

population with significantly smaller resources

than has been previously assumed. However,

44

39


there could be an upside to all this doom and

gloom: Due to the drastically shrinking resources,

the organisations, obliged to provide the

required services must truly start to innovate.

This will require a quality control and supportive

legislation. Without these measures, the quality

of services will be low and the living conditions

of the poorest segment of old people will be miserable.

4.2 Scenarios for 2030

During the panel work the main drivers for the

scenarios were selected: individualism vs. collectivism

and economic crisis vs. economic growth.

Figure 4.11 shows the positioning of the scenarios.

The positions are based on the conclusions of

the panel discussions.

The development of economy and the values of

the society are major characteristics to the hypothetical

scenarios. The drivers are strongly coupled,

in this respect the orthogonal presentation

may be misleading. The development of the

economy affects the behaviour of people who are

part of it. A robust economy may lead toward individualism,

while a poor economical environment

may trigger a spirit of individualism which

40

Individualism

Collectivism

borders on anarchy. It was assumed for the discussions

that the political and environmental development

occurs without any substantial crisis

or other unforeseen dramatic changes.

Scenario 1

It may be assumed that there are severe environmental

problems in many Asian countries due to

the uncontrolled exploitation and pollution of the

natural environment. These countries are no longer

attractive for the high tech industry. The slowdown

of the economy has brought up some political

problems.

Globalisation and immigration are visible also in

the devaluation of nationalism. The industry of

EU is protected against competition from countries

with low labour, social and environmental

costs by a strong wall of directives.

The development of economy has been positive,

and there is enough money to support an adequate

level of social and health care. In addition a relatively

large number of aged people are capable of

buying additional services. There is a significant

difference in both the quality and quantity of services

for a wealthy population compared to what

Scenario 1

Economical crisis Economical growth

Scenario 2

Figure 4.11. Positioning of the selected Scenarios.


is available in practice for the majority of aged

people. The polarisation of the society is significant

and further increasing. There are also a relatively

large number of elderly people from Asian

countries and from Russia living in Finland. This

is because there is a good political stability. Finland

is a safe living environment and the nature

remains relatively unpolluted. The differences

between regions of Finland are steadily growing.

As the laws of economy seem to determine the

development of society, confidence in the political

system is decreasing.

International companies provide the majority of

the services. However, there are a number of

smaller companies targeting focused customer

groups. Migrant workers are a significant part of

labour force in the social and health care sectors.

The quality of services is high due to the competition.

There is also a strong legislation to enforce

the high quality of services. Independence is considered

vital for the quality of life.

There are plenty of opportunities for elderly people

to have a full or part time work. Many are actually

continuing their career several years after

the official retirement age. This further enhances

the Finnish economy.

People are trying to remain living in their own

homes as long as they possibly can. This is partly

a result of the excessively high costs of institutional

care and partly because there are proper

services available. The fear of security threats, either

true or imagined, makes homes as protected

zones from the outside world. The need for a social

life stimulates a generation of various ad-hoc

social groups and breathes new life into various

interest groups.

Finland has successfully exploited the rise of

both Russia and Baltic countries. Wealthy St. Petersburg

region is a strong market for Finnish

products and services. There is a large active Russian

population, which are living shorter or longer

periods in Finland. A good infrastructure of

broad-band communication and fast train connections

between cities including St. Petersburg

allow people to be working nearly everywhere.

This reduces the problems related to the reduction

of the labour force and the society can successfully

respond to the challenge of the aging

population.

Scenario 2

A serious crisis of economy will reduce the funding

available for social and health care. Only a

small group of wealthy people are capable to buy

services and therefore there are not a large number

of service providers. Municipal services are

barely adequate. Some variations of the almshouse

concept are adopted. The prioritisation is

strong. Therefore people try to cope by themselves

or by getting some support from neighbours

and relatives. Some type of co-operative organisations

will be introduced. Old and young

people are living together to facilitate the possibility

to provide the necessary help and care. People

have returned to the barter economy to support

daily living. Individualism is slowly replaced

with collectivism. The feeling of isolation

and loneliness will therefore be a smaller problem

than in the Scenario 1.

Many must work after the official retirement age.

Usually the work will be done in the grey labour

market. Because people will have less money

they will eat less and maybe healthier food. People

will do more physical work. This may reduce

the risks of degenerative diseases like diabetes,

atherosclerosis and dementia. The consumption

of drugs will be reduced and people try to cope

with minor health problems by themselves.

Internet health services will be popular. Distributed

diagnosis and home healthcare (D2H2) will

be introduced by several international companies.

Some low cost instrumentation will be used

at homes and low grade health centres. The life

quality of the major part of aged people is not

very high. Support networks of relatives and

friends will be necessary.

41


The challenges and opportunities of

the Scenario 1

The life style in the society of the Scenario 1 is

quite dynamic. Small and middle sized enterprises

provide services, which are tailored to the

needs of their customers. Because the prices of

energy and raw materials are high and getting

even higher, the products are well designed and

durable. It may be that the present shopping malls

are replaced with local virtual shops. Selected

products are delivered directly to homes. This development

has actually been started. Online web

based shops have been taking a greater share of

the market away from speciality shops selling

home appliances and electronics. Even drugs are

delivered through mail after a prescription has

been provided. The pressures of international

competition will drive down the prices of

pharmaceuticals and the Finnish pharmacy concept

may disappear altogether.

The opportunity for Finnish companies is to establish

a lean chain of logistics to deliver products

to customers in Finland and, for example, in Russia.

The delivery of daily consumer goods will be

important especially for aged people.

The level of immigration has been strong and the

Finnish society has moved towards a multicultural

and multilingual society, where the values

might not been same for all. This will generate the

need to learn other languages in addition to Finnish,

Swedish and English. The Russian language

will be more and more important.

Because there is an increase of heterogeneity in the

society there will be an increasing need to improve

security or feeling of security. Therefore new sophisticated

methods to monitor environment and

personal well being will be introduced. The services

in this field will be delivered by private companies

except in case of major emergencies when

public services will take the responsibility.

The need for physical and mental activation will

lead to a development of new social interactions,

which are either web-based and/or involving dedicated

technology.

42

People will be more and more conscious about

the value of pollution free environment. Natural

and health food will gain more and more popularity.

People are willing to pay rather well if they

are assured that the food is produced without pesticides

and even without genetic manipulation.

This is despite that fact that genetic manipulation

has been shown on occasions to be an effective

way of combating pests.

In cities people are using compact cars with low

fuel consumption. Hybrid motors will replace

other motor types. Because travelling will be

more and more expensive local adventure and

amusement services will be more and more popular.

High definition digital 3D- movie theatres

with kinetic auditoriums will offer experiences

which are comparable to true adventures.

Health care processes are changing fast from conventional

institution and discipline centred organisations

towards distributed service organisations.

A long term contact to a personal doctor or nurse

will be the key to more sophisticated services. It

will be more and more common to buy some extra

insurance to safeguard against cases of personal

catastrophe. For example, private cancer hospitals

may sell guaranteed care at defined level against

an annual fee. This fee is increasing progressively

as the customer gets older.

The challenges and opportunities of

the Scenario 2

The Scenario 2 is full of challenges. There is a

lack of money to provide the services. In addition

there is not a proper work force available to be

hired by social and health care organisations.

There are only a few private companies to offer

high level services for elderly. Therefore families

and relatives are forming co-operative organisations

to take care those who need care and help.

There will be some large groups offering their

services based on an exchange or barter economy.

The communication inside the group will take

place through Internet. The important issue is that

money is not moved. In this way taxation is

avoided and also a generation of extra income is


lost, which could reduce social security benefits.

Because the national economy is suffering from

chronic stagnation the unemployment rate is high

and therefore these service networks are operating

quite effectively.

Some technological advances are taken into

widespread use. Cars with very small fuel consumption

are popular. Hybrid motors are too expensive

but advances in diesel engines make it

possible to produce environment friendly cars at

much lower costs. These are manufacture in large

numbers in China and India.

Institutional care is squeezed to a minimum volume.

There are available low cost self test diagnostic

kits based on biochips. Internet based MD

services and pharmacy business are blooming.

There are Internet sites giving guidance how to

care minor and even some rather major health

problems. It may be that these sites give some

hints how to perform euthanasia, for example, by

using helium gas, which is mainly used to fill balloons.

Despite the depressing environment, the increasing

social life makes life seem rather good. The

number of practical and sensible inventions is increasing.

People are finding again the fundamen-

Horror

Scenario

Economical crisis

Scenario 2

Individualism

Collectivism

tal values of living. However, the consumption of

alcohol and prevalence of related diseases is constantly

increasing. Due to the problems in the society

violence will be a significant cause of death

for aged people.

Other scenarios

The previously discussed two scenarios are not

the only alternatives. If the development of the

society goes towards individualism or rather egoism

and the economic crisis is deep, then we

reach the worst scenario: the Horror Scenario. On

the other hand, if we make right decisions and the

development in other parts of the world is favourable,

then we reach the positive scenario:

“Finnworld”. The positioning of these two scenarios

is shown below in Figure 4.12.

Costs of health care increase fast. For example

the diagnosis of cancer becomes more and more

accurate but assumes a use of costly imaging

studies with specific markers. The use of positron

emission tomography combined with X-ray CT

and MRI has demonstrated to be very sensitive

and to have a high specificity. When the cancer is

detected the effective tailored treatment is very

costly. It is obvious that the society must make

Scenario 1

Economical growth

“Finnworld”

Figure 4.12. Positioning of the Horror scenario and the positive

“Finnworld” scenario.

43


decision who will and who will not receive the diagnosis

and treatment. Will people over 70 be eligible

to receive this type treatment or will they receive

only palliative treatment?

If the development of economy is weaker than expected

and the society will be more divided in two

main groups, the rich and the poor, people will be

more egoistic. The characteristics of the society

will correspond to those of the Horror Scenario.

In this scenario the Finnish society loses young,

educated people to other countries and the declining

economy can only very poorly support the aging

population.

The “Finnworld” scenario assumes that many developments

which are going on now have been

changed. Despite the inevitable increase of costs

of work, energy and raw materials Finland has

made strong investments in research and development.

The trade with rising neighbouring

countries is growing fast and there is a strong collaboration

in technological development. The

public and private organisations have a good cooperation

in providing services. The income dif-

44

ferences are reasonable but still motivate people

to work. The indicators of the operations of the

society are qualitative and not just quantitative.

This enables the public sector to buy services in a

cost effective manner without compromising

quality. Immigration has been strong enough to

provide the necessary labour force. Finland is

known to exploit technological advances in cost

effective way producing high quality services.

For a product or service to be successful, the

added value must be demonstrated to many interest

groups as well as to the target customer (Figure

4.13). Accordingly well controlled field studies

are to be conducted in Finland and in the major

export countries. For companies with a good reputation

it is easy to find opinion leaders and get

them to speak in favour of the products. The necessary

resources are available also for smaller

companies because new funding sources have

been established to support this type of efforts.

The Finnish system for social and health care are

copied in several countries and this enables Finnish

companies to market their products and services

worldwide.

Figure 4.13. The many faces of the customer. The added value for

each interest group must be demonstrated in the pilot studies.


4.3 Vision for 2030

The vision for 2030 is described in the following

statements:

There are internationally successful niche

based businesses which exploit effectively the

concept of a health continuum

Health continuum concept is exploited optimally

giving a high additional value to the society

The Finnish models for providing care to the

aging population have been successfully converted

to products and services which are used

worldwide

The selected ways to operate are true win-win

solutions that benefit all parties of social and

health care

The technological advances are fully exploited to

reduce the amount of routine work in health and

social care. The level of safety and human touch

make Finland an attractive country for people to

settle in. People from different countries are coming

to spend shorter or longer periods and enjoy

Support for new

practices

Solutions

Base

The Finnish society has made true strategic

decisions and corresponding operations.

A number of win-win opportunities have

been created for private and public sectors

A commonly accepted vision

has been created and a

national well being strategy

with corresponding resource

allocation has been introduced

the high quality of services. The production of

health is the focus of both private and public organisations.

The unspoiled nature enables Finland

to produce health food products, which are

exported worldwide.

The development of new technology takes place

in pilot environments to ensure that the customer

requirements are taken into account already at the

beginning of a development project. The goals

and vision are shown in Figure 4.14.

The Finnish technology for health care is focused

on sophisticated IT- and material solutions. With

these products and services an aged person may

manage their own daily life. The number of people

in institutional care is rather small. These places

are replaced with senior houses with customer

specific enhanced care. The homes include already

considerable amount of invisible technology

to support daily life and the systems may be

adapted according to the needs of the customer.

The advanced measurement systems may monitor

some important parameters of the human body and

Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society

– Vision and goals

New cost and

resource/effective

solutions are needed

The Finnish services, products and

practices are successfully turned into

products, which are successful around

the world.

Lack of proper labor

force

Economic crisis or

change in values

International issue of aging

population

Health continuum – The

Finnish social and health care

is based on synergistic approach

to improve the quality of life

with optimal use of resources.

The continuous

development work is

introducing internationally

niche business concepts.

Time 2030

Figure 4.14. Vision and goals of health in aging society

45


give indication of future or immediate needs of

help. The goal is to prevent accidents, for example,

falls and adjust the medical treatment for maximal

benefit. The transducers are contactless and therefore

are not any burden to the user.

Robot technology is by 2030 used in many places

to help people in such routine operations as cleaning

and the preparation of meals. Robots may

also function as a communication device if an accident

is detected. They can also survey the environment

and in that way increase safety. This

technology will also find a large market in those

countries where the environment is not so safe.

Logistics for delivery of the food and other goods

is operating effectively and is actually decreasing

the costs of life. There are only a few large shopping

malls. These serve also as some places for

the social life of people.

Immigration has enhanced the culture life and the

high definition television system makes it possible

to enjoy events such as theatre shows, concerts and

operas from the comfort of a person’s home.

It is important that new solutions for social and

health care are implemented in practice. Novel

types of alarm systems are necessary. The current

mobile alarm units which require active operation

from the user will be replaced by ubiquitous sensors.

These are supported with sophisticated software

packages to analyze the conditions observed.

The necessary functions are automated so they do

not need any active participation from the users.

Video monitoring will be used only in special

cases. People are rather sensitive to the privacy issues.

Video calls through Internet will, however,

be used extensively. The system may open a

video call automatically if an alarm situation is

detected,

Different types of fall detectors will be important,

but even more important will be detectors for a

tendency to fall. In a Finnish study, published recently

in the British Medical Journal concluded

that the prevention of falls is more cost effective

than treatment of osteoporosis with current medication.

46

Special protective garments will be available. Sophisticated

hip protectors are needed. This requires

considerable product development because

the present day protectors are clumsy and

inconvenient to put on and use.

Movement detectors and e.g. bed detectors to

monitor the activity of a person will be common.

The detectors may send an alarm if a person

leaves the bed during night time. It may also be

used to turn on and off lights. Movement detectors

may guard doorways. The monitoring of

more extreme cases of dementia will require the

use of a greater number of these types of sensors.

These systems may also be used for burglar

alarms.

Special smoke, fire and cooker alarms will be integrated

in home appliances.

Many of these features are already integrated in

new “smart” homes. These are not intended

solely for elderly people. Because their functions

are easy to change, they may be fitted to the needs

of the customers.

The assistive technology may be retrofitted to individually

tailored homes. The unobtrusive sensors

collect lifestyle pattern data. This data may

be used to evaluate the health status of the customer.

Additionally it provides the basis of smart

control and alarm system. The conclusions of a

study made in EU related to the future adoption of

different technologies are shown in Figure 4.15.

There are people who may not welcome the technological

advances. The privacy and human

touch issues are important. Partially these problems

may be solved with a good product design.

There is an encouraging history of Finnish design

so this may be an important strength of the Finnish

industry. It should be noted that the design

should not indicate the weaknesses of the user.

Additionally the operation of the systems should

be intuitive and not add any load on the memory

and cognitive capabilities of the users. The systems

must also tolerate some misuse and adapt to

the capabilities of the user. These kind of adaptive

systems reduce considerably the workload of service

organisations.


0

One important problem is how to keep a proper

level of hygiene in the living environment and the

person already slightly demented and/or suffering

from some physical incapability. The cleaning

of homes and washing of people requires a

large amount of physical work. A proper design

of bathrooms is important. Standard bathtubs are

generally not usable without additional features.

Showers are suitable for people who are capable

to move by themselves but when additional help

is needed these are no longer practical.

Routine cleaning at homes may be partially done

with robots. Air cleaners reduce amounts of dust

and even microbes and therefore, reduce also

some cleaning work. In any case, the problems

related to hygiene are still unsolved and innovative

solutions are urgently needed.

Even though the amount of workforce is decreasing

the need of human contact will never

decrease. There is only a limited capability of

technological solutions to help in this respect.

The efforts should be invested in a reduction of

routine bureaucratic and physical work in order

to free vital resources to provide a proper level of

personal care.

Home care decision makers’ opinion on future trends in care sector

% of decision makers stating “likely to be common within five to ten years”

(weighted according to market share)

46

46

49

64

74

78

93

20 40 60 80 100

Older people contact healthcare

provider via picture-based services

Passive alarm sestems in the clients

home will automatically alert the care provider

Vital sata of client will be remotely

monitoret

Mobile staff transmit data on the spot with

portable computer

Shared electronis care records will become

accessible by authorised parties

People in need of care will be members

of on-line self groups

Internet will be an important means of

information on health an care issues

© SeniorWatch

Figure 4.15. Conclusions regarding to the future adoption of technologies in health care.

Source: Seniorwatch

4.4 Roadmap

The use of technology in health and social care in

Finland is not as effective as it should be. ICT has

increased the productivity in industry and in

some services like banking considerably. Regrettably,

this has not been happening in public services.

There are many projects going on and a

considerable amount of money and effort has

been invested in poorly managed operations.

The poor organisation and tight budget of the

public social and health care sectors do not permit

well managed pilot studies. Even project based

extra funding does not help because there are not

people capable of investing sufficient time and effort

in piloting. In addition to this, practical tests

of a new radical idea also assume changes in the

practises of the organisation. This requires some

extra resources available within the organisation.

It is well known that these resources do not exist.

The silent (tacit) information of the organisation

cannot be extracted and apply in the improvements

of the ideas and new products. The results

of the Delphi questionnaire indicated that the specialists

rate Finland to be at the average level in

use of the advanced technology and at the level of

47


health services. This is because there are not

proper resources, motivation and management to

adopt new practices and products.

Before any significant progress can be expected

the present situation must be analysed.

The obvious weaknesses must be openly recognised

and the necessary strategic choices must

be made. An understanding of the operation of

the health care system is still at a very low level.

Now the change due to the aging will take place

within the next 10 years. That is fast compared

to the time constants involved in the system.

The institutional public health care will react

slowly so the fastest and probably the most cost

effective operations can be made outside the institutions.

The health continuum concept includes

the tight relationship between the operations

to support a healthy life style and the costs

of institutional health care. The institutional care

will be replaced by home care and special senior

housing with tailored services. This trend is visible

for example in the USA as shown in Figure

4.16.

Preventive operations will be more and more important.

This situation generates some good business

opportunities: Health food manufacturers,

48

fitness clubs, home care monitors, ubiquitous

systems, peer group organizers and various

co-operatives may find new concepts which may

be marketed internationally.

One important pioneer enterprise is already going

on in Finland. This is the senior house “Loppukiri”,

where the inhabitants by themselves take

care of all the necessary daily tasks. The workload

is divided according to the ability of each individual.

Help from outsiders is used only in such

tasks which exceeds the capabilities of the inhabitants.

The funding of the research and development

projects should depend on how well they can

expect to support the health continuum concept.

The scientific basis of projects should be

sound and the research is more related on implementation

and demonstration of cost effectiveness.

The problem has been recognised and some operations

have already been started. One new approach

which has been raised some positive expectations

is the initiative to collect strategic

groups around selected segments of the Finnish

industry. The concept is still vague and the coop-

Figure 4.16. Development in Washington, USA. State-supported nursing home beds

have not kept pace with the growth of the population aged 85 and above. However,

increasingly the elderly population is being served by in-home and community-based

programs. Source: Access Washington


Figure 4.17. The roadmap for preparation for the challenges of the aging society

eration between the groups is not well managed.

The worst case scenario is that a new organisation

level has been created to further make the

funding of research and development more fragmented

and uncoordinated. There is an unchallenged

belief in the ability of named organizations

and committees to create new innovations

from nothing. How we can get rid of this devastating

belief of the superior capabilities of organisations?

The funding of R&D must be increased

considerably and it should be addressing

new ideas which change the established

ways of operating. The present way to support

the projects only if they are accepted by the established

companies will not lead to the positive

goal that is desired.

There are some necessary operations to be

made to respond to the future challenges. These

are summarized as a roadmap shown in Figure

4.17.

4.5 Conclusions

Finland has a risk to fall into both an economical

as well as a demographical trap. The current innovation

mechanisms are ineffective and clumsy.

The population is aging rapidly and the leaders

hesitate. The situation demands that real actions

are started immediately. Otherwise the future capability

to take care for aged people and to prosper

from a health economy will no longer exist in

Finland’s bleak future.

The health continuum should be adopted – the

operations of preventive health care are fast to

take into practice and very cost effective.

The present status of the situation must be analyzed

and the decisions should be made to turn

the recognized threats into opportunities. An

overarching plan to exploit the opportunities

must be made.

49


The funding of research and development must

be increased and targeted to development of solutions

to these impending problems. The public

organisations must have resources to pilot these

new solutions and the employees should have

strong motivation to contribute the development.

The health and social care sector has the potential

to be one of the future growth businesses of Finnish

service and manufacturing industry. The

products integrate IT, design and application

knowledge. The necessary components already

exist for Finland’s future greatness – we should

not strangle creativity in its infancy by putting it

in a straitjacket.

50

References

Pekka Parkkinen: Väestön ikääntymisen vaikutukset

kuntatalouteen, VATT tutkimuksia 136, 2008

Suvi Mäklin, Pekka Rissanen:Syöpien aiheuttamat

kustannukset, Suomen syöpäjärjestöjen julkaisuja

no. 67, 2006

Eero Pukkala, Risto Sankila, Matti Rautalahti: Syöpä

Suomessa 2006, Suomen Syöpäyhdistysten jukaisuja

no. 71, 2006


5 Towards energy and material efficient society

Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva Oy and

Irmeli Mikkonen, Motiva Oy

Panel chairman

Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva Oy

Panel members

Reetta Anderson, YTV Waste Management

Erja Heino, the Finnish Association for

Nature Conservation

Mikael Hildén, Finnish Environment Institute

Helka Julkunen, WWF

Pentti Lahtinen, Ramboll Finland Oy

Tarja Laine, Uusimaa Regional Environment

Centre

Irmeli Mikkonen, Motiva Oy

Jussi Mykkänen, Vaisala Oyj

Aleksi Neuvonen, Demos Helsinki

Raija Pikku-Pyhältö, Tekes

Jyri Seppälä, SYKE

Eero Siitonen, Inesco Oy

Risto Talja, Metso Paper Oyj

Harri Turpeinen, Neste Oil Oyj

5.1 Introduction

The focus of the work in the Society based on energy

and material efficiency panel was on meticulous

and economical use of resources. Those include

the management of environmental impacts

during the product’s value chain, and the competitive

edge achieved as the global regulation becomes

more strict, and that of the changes in the

supply and prices of energy and resources. Important

aspects to be included are also societal aspects

in use and reuse of materials and energy:

lifestyles, cultural issues, motivation, costs and

global aspects. The society based on energy and

material efficiency is also strongly linked to understanding

of ecosystems, environmental management

and infrastructure, energy production,

energy and material efficiency as well as industrial

structure, logistics and mobility, and intelligent

technology solutions.

Global situation, difference in resources, poverty

and economical development and their impact

were widely discussed. The global trends have

become quite local also and affect individual regions

and countries differently. Finland’s standpoint

and role in global environment became the

leading issue and the work was done from that respect.

Finland’s dependency as an exporter on the

global economy and market supports the global

aspect and on the other hand the global viewpoint

supports Finland’s angle towards export markets.

The target was set to envisage Finland as society

and Finland’s competitiveness on global market.

How Finland will manage in the economic competition?

Finland’s economy is largely based on

process industry products on global market. On

the other hand Finland has limited natural resources,

relatively clean nature and the country is

sparsely populated with no large metropolises.

Increasingly available IC-technology, novel business

concepts and new materials, but also mobility

requirements, increasing demand but also insufficiency

of energy sources and the threats

caused by the climate change are key aspects

from the Finnish perspective, too.

Certain aspects, less important from the Finnish

perspective, like water resources, clean water and

global land use, were left out.

It was agreed that the foresight goal needs to be

far enough in terms of time as in energy field the

infrastructure is very slow to change and investments

are commonly made for about 50 years, the

planning and decisions for 20 years ahead are being

made now. The time-span for trends and drivers

was set to 2050, and for specific measures the

goal was set to 2020.

The panel working on this issue had members

from versatile sectors of society. They come from

51


process and energy industry, research institutes,

regional planning, waste management organisations,

companies and NGOs. All the panellists are

experts in their field working on energy, environmental

and material issues.

There are several sources of information to obtain

studies and report on the issue, but in this work

none of those were used as reference materials.

Rather, the work is based on the panellists’ experience

and expertise, which, coming from people

of different sectors in different roles, complemented

to the discussion and results of the work.

5.2 The foreseen changes in

the operational environment

The most important phenomena in the background

scenario are global economy increase;

Finland’s economy increase and ability to adapt;

and global integration and cooperation versus

isolation and economic and political blocks.

Identification of key trends and

drivers

The overall key driver is climate change. How

much, how soon and in what extent will the climate

change affect is still uncertain. The panel

was quite unanimous that the role of climate

change will be significant but the severity and impacts

are not known yet.

The most important individual drivers coming up

in the process are the use, insufficiency and price

of energy and natural resources. Those are regarded

as one driver due to their interdependency.

However, the severity of insufficiency remains

uncertain.

Regulation is a significant driver, but it has not

achieved global commitment; on global level it is

still non-existing. Future development and direction

of global commitment on regulation are still

uncertain.

Other drivers, though still uncertain, are

Political decision making and leadership

(legislation, regulations)

52

Consumption behaviour and attitudes of both

companies and consumers Link between economic

development and consumption

Global superpowers and their competition.

In general people’s attitudes are pro environment

but don’t often enough lead to environmentally

sound consumption behaviour, which makes

them a bigger uncertainty rather than a positive

driver.

Future scenarios

The panelists discussed in groups possible futures

and strategic options and came up with the

following three scenario options for further process:

1. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources

along with political decision making favouring

sustainable development

2. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources

along with sustainable consumption behaviour

3. Political decision making favouring sustainable

development along with sustainable consumption

behaviour.

In more detailed scrutiny of the scenarios the second

option turned out to be too theoretical and unlikely,

although interesting option driven by the

citizens. As it included several important points

of interest and was merged with the option 3. The

two scenario options chosen for further processing

are:

A. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources

along with political decision making favouring

sustainable development

B. Political decision making favouring sustainable

development along with sustainable consumption

behaviour

The future in the two scenario options was reflected

to the foreseen future world in 2050, how

to get there and how Finland would fit in that

world. Both options predict that in the 2050 world

material and energy recycling is common and

valued. Prices of energy and raw materials will

increase also.


In the scenario A there will be a global crisis

which leads to political pressure and to strong

economical regulation and institutional control.

General attitudes and capacity building favour

life-cycle consciousness of products and services

Also nationalism will increase and the social responsibility

of companies regresses. Finland as a

small nation is quick in decision making and becomes

a model country of sustainable development.

Companies adapt to existing situation and

serenity in the society prevails.

Sustainability favouring politics in scenario B

leads to improved infrastructure; dense living environment,

efficient public transport and good

IT-infrastructure. Also education towards sustainability

is favoured. The sustainability thinking

is a result of a catastrophe (e.g. natural disaster).

That brings along substantial increase in energy

and environment awareness, and global decision

making in that respect.

Finland’s position in this option is similar to the

one of option A. The infrastructure becomes

more centralised, there’s consensus in the society,

and more immigrants are welcomed to Finland.

Finland exports high quality material and

energy efficiency and IT solutions.

Different paths lead to similar needs

Political threats in the society lead to increasingly

important roles of preparedness for crisis and security

of supply. Dependency on global politics

and balance affects all countries but has the most

serious impacts on the less developed ones.

Natural disasters, catastrophes have less impact

on all societies and will not necessarily lead to social

crisis. Floods, exceptionally dry seasons, and

notable changes in temperatures and seasons are

commonly referred as impacts of climate change.

The attitudes and thinking of the future becomes

more and more pro environment among people

and thus also affects to political decision making

on national but also on global level.

Both a severe global crisis bringing along harsh

regulation and strict institutional control in the

society, and disasters leading to sustainable deci-

sion making will tackle the problems of insufficiency

of material resources and energy.

Insufficiency of resources leads to price increases

and failures in deliveries of e.g. metals, and other

raw materials for industry. Water and food deliveries

affect people directly. Whilst the everyday

life of the people is affected directly or indirectly

by the lack of resources or deliveries, the local

community becomes more important. Both in society

and in single families the insufficiency of

resources is evident which leads to regulation of

e.g. energy use and better or stronger control.

When the society through a compulsion becomes

more authoritative and increases public ownership

and regulation the slowdown of economic

development is evident for a while. The knowhow

and capacity building will take a new turn as

high-level administrative capacity and other

skills are in demand.

Sustainable values in society rule out excess consumption

and focus will be on life’s necessities.

Life becomes poorer in materials but recycling,

renovation and reuse compensate. Life becomes

also local. Local isolated communities might,

however, also bring along racism. Simultaneously

the reuse-repair society needs craftsmen

as professionals but also as entrepreneurs.

Travelling and commuting will decrease as the

communities become denser and need for travelling

is compensated by virtual services. Also

working life changes, working at home increases

and new, small businesses are established.

Sustainable politics and consumption behaviour

through evident threat of climate change requires

a dense society in terms of infrastructure and efficient

services. Regulation and control increase

and e.g. strict building codes create new forms for

communities. Intelligent building systems enable

several options for use, better services and new

working methods.

Transport and commuting change as public transport

and non-motorised commuting become

more attractive, telecommuting increases and logistics

improve. Modal shift from road to rail

53


changes the need for private cars and changes the

travelling behaviour towards more local travel..

Service sector brings along more working opportunities

as do the IT solutions and services. Local

services for food production are also in increase.

Needs, challenges and opportunities

There are, however, several needs, uncertainties

and challenges that the society, in this case Finland,

will face through the change. The economy

might be in turmoil as the administration becomes

more bureaucratic and more expensive.

Centralised control in the society brings along

many needs and challenges.

Many of the challenges can also be turned into

opportunities. Stronger administration and control

need skilled personnel and capacity building

needs to be increased. At the same time employment

in administration improves but maintaining

heavy institutional control is expensive. Whilst

the central administration is strong people need

local unity and regional and local communities

become more valuable.

Revenue generation strategy faces new opportunities

as rural areas need local services. State regulations

on dense, concentrated urban infrastructure

and transport prevail, but on local level the communities

become important bodies. Bringing all public

services to local level calls for investments.

The values in the society strengthen equal treatment

of all, liberality and equity. The government

steering is strong and faces visionary challenges.

As the society is quite isolated it must solve the

problem how to treat the immigrants and deal

with their adaptation to the society. Understanding

of the multicultural society and learning

through virtual experiences challenge the nation.

The economy faces new challenges to meet the

new society’s needs, and traditional industrial

products and services might not be in demand any

more. Finland’s economy has been based on process

and heavy metal industry, which might be in

54

danger if raw materials and energy prices go up

and deliveries fail. The industry needs to develop

more efficient energy and material solutions. Recycling,

renovation and reuse of products become

more attractive options. Investments in development

of new materials and material and energy

efficiency solutions will accumulate to novel designs

and services for export market. Finland becomes

a front runner in planning of material and

energy efficient, sustainable and repairable and

easily serviced products on global markets.

At the same time the IC technology will have a

larger foothold in the society but the technology

needs to be developed to the desired level. New,

advanced IC technology will facilitate the

operability of the society for telecommuting, communication

and services. On a family level the information

technology takes a lead over people’s

choices and virtual experience products are in demand.

The information technology needs labour

as well and expertise and new skills call for further

training and capacity building. Finland has an opportunity,

and a need, to develop novel technology

concepts and services for global market.

Energy production and energy use need to be

more local, which challenges energy supply and

production methods. There is need for new energy

solutions and fuels to compensate the conventional

ones. Energy production will be largely

based on micro-generation using waste and renewable

sources.

Probable shortage of energy might lead to restricted

use of heating and electricity use in buildings. That

challenges the industry to develop new more efficient

energy products, low-energy systems and energy

and material efficient design and planning. Potential

lower room temperatures challenge also e.g.

clothing design and manufacturing - can the lower

room temperatures be compensated with intelligent

clothing materials and solutions? Cold climate

technology faces opportunities in developing new

solutions for increasing demand.

In densely structured communities buildings are

high tech and intelligent. The building codes are

strict and call for detailed reporting. Dense infra-


structure will force to build higher buildings. Energy

efficient and intelligent building solutions

will facilitate use of new building materials as

well as multiple purposes for buildings. Intelligent

buildings provide opportunities for telecommuting.

Work has become more information concentrated,

and telecommuting is popular and supported.

Transport of goods and peoples’commuting

and their increasing needs will change the

transport infrastructure. That results in decreased

use of private cars, increased popularity of public

transport, non-motorised transport and car-sharing

and leasing. Public transport has to offer new

mobility options, also for the disabled ones.

Modal shift from road to rail is evident as rail

transport presents a more ecologically efficient

and economical option. Logistics systems and

services development require large investments

and inputs in logistics management and training.

As infrastructure will be more dense and concentrated,

it might lead to isolated areas elsewhere as

services and work places move in centres. On the

other hand that allows new opportunities to new

service businesses and entrepreneurs.

Food supply will face new challenges as deliveries

might fail and the society calls for local food

production. Also, fresh and clean water reserves

might be in danger. Will peoples shopping and

eating habits change? Increased local food production

becomes necessary. Ecologically produced

products are in demand, because the importance

to cut CO 2 emissions in food production

and distribution are in favour. Vast variety of related

local services, e.g. home delivery, catering,

restaurant take-out, will be developed and improved

to meet the new demands.

The new dense, community based, IT concentrated

society allows people more free time. The

sustainable choices don’t allow much travelling

and on the other hand the work is static lacking

physical efforts. In their free time people favour

local travelling, camping and hiking. Virtual hobbies

and intelligent IC technology present new

opportunities for people.

5.3 Setting of a vision and

strategic goals and

identification of

the actions needed to

achieve the goals

The scenario work brought up several opportunities

for Finland to learn and take advantage of the

possible changes, the unique location of the

country, natural resources and climate, and the

highly educated population to be competent on

global markets. There was common understanding

that Finland’s strengths are in energy and material

efficiency products and services; renewable

energy, especially bioenergy solutions; IT solutions

and services; and highly educated people.

The vision for 2050 was commonly agreed on

those principles:

Innovative Finland interprets to environmental

sustainability, people’s welfare and economical

success. The key elements of that are top level energy

and material efficient solutions and services.

In Finland there are internationally leading

professionals and export companies in these

sectors.

To achieve the vision of 2050 Finland, some definitions

and pre-requisitions must be taken into

consideration:

Attitudes must change towards energy and

environmental sustainability

Green-house gas and climate change challenges

must be taken seriously in all levels

Environmental competence throughout all

sectors must be improved

Economical aspects of sustainability are

important for maintaining competitiveness

Being a fore-runner on chosen sectors is essential

Directives and regulation must support the

development

Finnish society is globally competent in

sustainable use of resources.

55


Roadmaps to achieve the goals

The panel discussed the strategic goals and alternative

solutions and actions to achieve the goals

set in the vision. Altogether eight main solutions

were identified of which five were chosen for further

process. Those all are based on Finland’s opportunities

and strengths. They have impact to the

whole society while they also include specific solutions

for Finland’s future competence and economical

competiveness on global markets.

Spatial planning, housing and

transport

The spatial planning aims at dense and mixed urban

structure with well functioning rail transport.

In the urban communities distances to work, services

and recreational areas are close to home.

Finland will be globally competent in producing

public transport solutions and products, and

low-energy, material and energy efficient products

and services.

To achieve these goals, set for the year 2020, Finland

needs to invest in research, development and

innovation (R&D&I) activities, education and

56

Support for new

practices

Solutions

Societal basis

Energy and material efficiency – Vision and goals

Demand for systematic

innovations and new

practices

Understanding of the

sustainable use of energy

and materials

Models for regulating

and measuring energy

and material efficiency

over the life cycle

New practices for energy and

material efficiency in communities

and society

Energy and material

efficiency solutions for

current activities

Crisis or

change in attitudes

Demand for energy and

material efficient solutions

Higher energy and raw

material prices

Innovative Finland

interprets to environmental

sustainability, people’s welfare

and economical success.

The key elements of that are top

level energy and material efficient

solutions and services. In

Finland there are internationally

leading professionals and

export companies in these

sectors.

TIME 2050

Figure 5.1. Vision for Finland in 2050

capacity building in the sectors and provide appropriate

and sufficient regulation and support

mechanisms. The main trends and drivers to

achieve the goals include aging population,

changing basis of wellbeing and happiness but

also the current urban structure together with

need to reduce energy consumption and decrease

of CO 2 emissions. Novel ICT solutions also present

good opportunities for the change.

The central solutions presented in the table above

can be supported by developing energy and material

efficiency indicators and monitoring and

life-cycle systems for spatial planning and land

use. Legislation and specific regulations towards

energy and material efficient buildings and components

must be improved. Public transport services

must be improved and one option for that

direction is to develop sustainable pricing systems

in mobility and transport sector.

There are also challenges and barriers to achieve

the goals. Living in a dense urban environment

might become too expensive. On the other hand

the standard of living might increase to the level

where excess consumption and wasteful lifestyle

become common on sustainability’s expense.


Why?

Drivers

and

trends

What?

Central

solutions

How?

– skills

– practices

– co-operation

Changing basis of

wellbeing and

happiness

Renovation of existing

houses and areas

Finnish lifestyle might not remain unchanged

where private car use is excessive and families

have single-family houses and summer houses.

The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised

in Figure 5.2.

Energy and material efficiency of

industrial production

In the year 2020 Finland will be a top exporter of

energy and material efficient products and services.

There will be internationally leading Finnish

manufacturers and exporters on the global market

in certain sectors: forest and metal industry, alternative

transport fuels, water purification technology

and IC technology. Some areas of chemical

industry could also be Finland’s strengths. Finland’s

strength is based on long experience and

know-how in energy intensive process and metal

industry which facilitates new business areas in

smart processes and management of material and

energy flows.

Spatial planning, housing and transport

ICT solutions and

telepresence for work

Energy and material efficiency

indicators and life cycle models

for urban spatial planning

R&D&I and

investments in

public transport

Pressure to minimi

energy consumptio

and CO emissions (and

2

hence pressure on

current low density

urban structures)

Smart low energy homes

(also for export)

Tax incentives and

regulation for

housing and transport

Aging

R&D&I activities for

developing energy and

material efficient housing

Energy and material efficient services

e.g. retailing, waste management,

car sharing etc.

Public transport systems

Use of waste energy

e.g. from waste water

ICT solutions

R&D&I activities for

developing energy and

material efficient services

Housing regulation

Figure 5.2. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of spatial planning,

housing and transport

If the goal is achieved production volumes will

increase. Business opportunities in service sector

improve as research and capacity building develop.

IC technology solutions will be utilised

substantially more also in energy efficiency sector

and need for travelling is compensated by digital

services. On the other hand global prices of

raw materials increase due to insufficiency of

supply. There’s also increasing need to move for

work opportunities.

To achieve the goal the competence must be ensured

by investing in basic research and improving

vocational education of experts as well as

supporting entrepreneurship. Investments in

R&D&I for activities in material and energy efficient

industry as well as support mechanisms for

commercialization of new innovations. Material

and energy efficient solutions should be supported

with lower taxation than the conventional

ones. Indicator and life-cycle systems for material

and energy efficiency industrial products

must be developed.

57


The main drivers in the sector are increased energy

and material prices and need to cut the CO 2

emissions. Global competition forces Finland to

take a new turn in industrial production especially

in the energy intensive process technology

due to isolated location and globalised market.

Regulation presents new challenges also. IC technology

offers a good platform to develop new solutions

and services on global market.

There are some uncertainties or challenges that

need to overcome to achieve the goals. The education

system fails to improve according to the

needs and support for entrepreneurship lacks.

There must also be courage to change the existing

industrial structure on time. EU regulation

might become an obstacle for competition in

global perspective. Radical changes in global

politics or economy might steer the development

elsewhere.

The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised

in Figure 5.3.

58

Why?

Drivers

and

trends

What?

Central

solutions

How?

– skills

– practices

– co-operation

Higher energy prices

and pressure toward

lowering CO2

emissions

Energy and material efficiency in industry

Globally competitive energy and

material efficient products

Understanding and

management of energy and

material flows

Energy and material efficiency

indicators and life cycle models

for industrial products

Support mechanism

for energy and

material efficiency

in R&D projects

Global competition

Standards and public

procurement

Regulation and

potential unequal

regulation

environment

Regulation that supports energy

and material efficiency

(positive feedback)

R&D&I activities for

developing energy and

material efficient industry

Smart processes

Basic research e.g. on

material and energy

flows

ICT

Energy and material

efficient services

Support for

commercialisation, e.g. pilot

processes, entrepreneurship

Education for

experts in process

engineering,

chemistry etc.

Figure 5.3. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of energy and

material efficiency in industry

Energy production – CO 2 and small

scale

The target is to maintain sufficient energy production

to ensure equal welfare of people. In the year

2020 there’s a 30% reduction of CO 2 emissions

and use of natural resources in energy production,

and everyone has an equal opportunity to use energy.

Local energy production is important to ensure

security of supply and local independency.

Local energy production is possible by utilising

passive solar energy and passive cooling. Waste as

energy source will present opportunities for local

production. New alternative technologies, e.g.

small-scale bioenergy and solar heating and electricity

solutions for energy generation will be developed.

Infrastructure and electricity distribution

systems support local small-scale production.

The local production requires specific support

mechanisms, e.g. feed-in tariffs, and renewed taxation

systems from the government. Also housing

regulation needs to be developed. The small-scale


Why?

Drivers

and

trends

What?

Central

solutions

How?

– skills

– practices

– co-operation

Climate change and

pressure for lower CO

emissions. Global

regulation of Co2

energy production infrastructure must be understood

to facilitate proper distribution and logistics

systems. Investments in R&D&I activities ensure

development of new systems and services.

The central drivers are based on need to improve

energy production more efficient and reduce CO 2

emissions. Climate change requires actions to reduce

CO 2 emissions and CO 2tax on energy production

is evident. Efficient use of resources, e.g.

waste energy, is an effective driver. Security of

supply must be ensured with local production.

Small-scale solutions are essential in rural areas.

There are several obstacles to achieve the target.

Global CO 2 taxation might not be implemented

in some countries and hinders sustainable production

methods’ development. Development of

novel renewable energy production technologies

might suffer from increased amount of nuclear

power production. If energy consumption increases

substantially the advantages of low emission

production might be lost.

Energy production – CO and small scale

2

Use of ”waste” heat

Specific support

mechanisms

(e.g. feed-in tariffs)

2

Need for security of

supply

Use of passive cooling

Better understanding of the pros

and cons of small scale systems

(e.g. ccs, distribution, logistics)

Energy taxation that

takes CO into account

2

Efficient use of

resources, including

waste

Electricity distribution and

other infrastructure systems

support small scale production

Use of passive solar heat

Understanding of local

energy resources

Need for small scale

heat and power

production systems

in less densely

populated and rural

areas

Technologies for small scale

bio, solar etc. electricity

and heat

R&D&I activities for developing small

scale energy systems

Housing regulation

Figure 5.4. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of energy production

The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised

in Figure 5.4.

Sustainable use of resources and

materials

The target for sustainable use of resources and

materials was set for year 2010. Sustainable use is

in line with the current trend of limited supply of

resources and materials. Sustainable use of materials

and resources covers the essential resources

for Finnish industry. Forest based raw-materials

of pulp and paper industry and wood energy production;

biomass and peat for energy production,

minerals and water resources. Sustainability in

material and resources use is still underdeveloped

and provides several possibilities for new solutions

and businesses.

The most important solutions towards sustainability

are increased recycling and reuse of materials

and products, utilization of waste and side

flows in processes. Industrial ecology principles

59


provide new production solutions and innovations.

Holistic planning of natural resources through the

whole life-cycle produces new services and systems

in industry.

Basic research on material and energy flows and

understanding of material life-cycle models must

be in place. National and international regulation

must be supportive to recycling and re-use of

products. New criteria and methods and technologies

for sustainable use of materials need to be

developed and local social and economical

sustainability need models. Realistic understanding

of the exploitation potential of natural resources

can be achieved through education and

research. It’s also important to use the utilized resources

to the fullest, e.g. through collaboration

with other industries.

The main drivers for sustainable use of materials

are globally increasing demand for energy and

raw-materials and at the same time the resources

are limited. That leads to price increase. Uncon-

60

Why?

Drivers

and

trends

What?

Central

solutions

How?

– skills

– practices

– co-operation

Sustainable use of resources and material

Ingreasing demand for energy

and other natural resources

globally

Utilisation of side flows

and waste

Technologies that support efficient

use of the natural resources

Understanding of available natural

resources and sustainable consumption

level n Finland and globally

Limited resources and higher

prices

Holistic planning of the whole lifecycle of

natural resources in different industries

Increased recycling

Criteria and models for

sustainable use of materials

Basic research e.g. on

material and energy

flows

Damage to the environment

Industrial ecology

Models for social and

economic sustainability

locally

Regulation that

supports re-use and

recycling

Figure 5.5. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of sustainable use of

resources and material

trolled use of energy and materials and waste production

are harmful for the environment.

Sustainable uses of resources might be questionable

if the environmental impacts of the process

exceed the benefits. Sustainable actions must ensure

the continuation of local employment and

businesses.

The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised

in Figure 5.5.

Environmental competence and

management of the society

A sustainable society ensures that basic education

and competence levels are good and regulative

measures ensure active development. The target

for those was set for 2010. The goal is to increase

Finnish exports and that calls for competent expertise

also in political decision making and in public

and private sectors to facilitate the implementation

of actions. Central solutions to achieve the target


Why?

Drivers

and

trends

What?

Central

solutions

How?

– skills

– practices

– co-operation

are competent skills for energy and material efficiency

activities which ensure competence and

competitiveness of the industries. Regulation and

procurement methods must be efficient and effective.

For the implementation the society needs to

support peoples’ wellbeing and happiness.

The competence can be ensured by investing substantially

in education and training energy and

material efficiency to all, from primary schools to

advanced and continuing education at work. Primary

education is insufficient and too slow to

bring change and improvement in competence

and therefore the capacity building has to cover

the whole society at the same time. Basic research

on material and energy efficiency must be

invested in, and new regulations and support

mechanisms must be developed accordingly.

Regulation and support for procurement test beds

and commercialization, e.g. pilot processed and

entrepreneurship, risk funding, are needed. There

need be new life-cycle models and indicators to

monitor energy and material efficiency as well.

Environmental skills and management in society

Climate change and limited

resources

Efficient and effective

regulation and procurement

Regulation and

procurement test beds

Basic skills for everyone

– primary education

Globalisation and

more complex and

wider networks

Competitive industries

Skills for energy and material efficient activities

Energy and material efficiency

indicators and life cycle models

Basic research e.g. on material and

energy efficiency and market

regulation and support mechanisms

Need for political decisions

and regulation

Support to wellbeing and

happiness

Support for commercialisation, e.g.

pilot processes, entrepreneurship

Education and energy and

material efficiency skills in

many disciplines

Figure 5.6. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of environmental

skills and control in society

Attitudes and behaviour changes are essential

and those don’t happen without sufficient information,

e.g. through education, best practices and

evidence of benefits both in terms of sustainability

and economy.

The main drivers, which however might also turn

out to be obstacles when failing, are based on improved

competence throughout the society. Economical

and administrative control to right direction

is essential and that calls for improved competence

and skills from the decision makers to

make educated decisions. Encouraging regulative

measures speed up the development. Climate

change and limited resources are effective drivers

for improving competence in the society. Globalisation

requires new skills and expertise to

manage in the economical competition. Wider

and more complex professional and economical

networks need new skilled people.

The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised

in Figure 5.6.

61


5.4 Roadmap to society based

on energy and material

efficiency

There must be a genuine, common will to develop

the society into sustainable direction. That, in the

first place, means legislation and regulations that

support the activity. International cooperation in

regulative measures as well as in political decision

creates the foundation for development of

energy and material efficient education, research,

technologies and application.

The following roadmap describes the central solutions

the means to achieve the solutions and main

drivers and trends for energy and material efficient

society. The solutions have already been described

in more detail in chapter 5.3 of this report.

Research and education

The key challenge is to improve and broaden the

education of energy, material and environmental

62

Why?

Drivers

and

trends

What?

Central

solutions

How?

– skills

– practices

– co-operation

Climate change, global

competition of energy

and other resources

Sustainable communities,

housing and everyday mobility

issues to cover all levels in the society. It is of outmost

importance to provide further training and

continuing education for those already in working

life in industry, service sector and public sector

including political decision makers, while

also providing primary and vocational education.

For vocational education there’s a need to invest

in areas critical for improvement of competence

in material and energy efficiency. Material and

energy efficiency should be integrated in various

sectoral curricula in order to produce competent

expertise for different sectors in society.

The interdependency of different sectors and

stakeholders is so strong in establishment of a

foundation and methods for sustainable society

in the near future that all stakeholders’ competence

and contribution must be included. Information

dissemination combined with training to

change attitudes and behaviour will complement

the specific education in all levels.

Entrepreneurship should be supported by providing

education and further training for companies.

Energy and material efficiency

Environmental skills and

control in society

R&D and education – skills for

creating solutions

Strategic will and

acceptance of

regulation

Pressure on traditional

way of life and doing

business due to global

integration

Criteria for

sustainability

Values and attitudes,

global politics

Energy production – Local small

scale production and CO 2

Change in values, attitudes

and behaviour

Sustainable use of resources

and materials

Indicators for

sustainability

Potential international

crisis

Energy and material

efficiency solutions for

major industrial clusters

Support for developing

energy and material

efficient solutions

Economic incentives

based on accepted

indicators

Figure 5.7. Summary of drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals


Another basis is to ensure strong and competent

basic and applied research in material and energy

efficiency to enable the industry to adapt

the research results and develop new business

opportunities. That calls for considerable resources

and investments in capacity building for

research.

Competent capacity of all stakeholders through

education and efficient R&D&I will support the

change. Efficient R&D&I mean open mind, active

dialog and flawless cooperation between universities

and research institutes, government organisations

and the industry. That cooperation could be

strengthened by developing an open innovation

environment for energy and material efficiency,

where all stakeholders could provide ideas and initiatives.

It would provide input to industry and

companies in development of a feedback instrument

for development of processes, systems and

services. The innovation environment would also

work to other direction by increasing motivation

and interest to improve new material and energy

efficiency activities and areas.

Indicators and monitoring systems

In developing and improving material and energy

efficiency it’s important to develop sufficient and

precise indicators and monitoring systems. Land

use and spatial planning need energy and material

efficiency indicators and monitoring systems to

follow e.g. CO 2 emissions. Life-cycle calculations

need to be supported also with indicators

and calculation methods.

Monitoring should provide easy to understand information

and positive messages; energy and material

efficiency is inexpensive, easy, and provides

stable comfort and more free time.

Indicators and monitoring methods are essential

for all sectors of society to justify the benefits and

cost efficiency of material and energy efficiency

activities, but also to improve the current systems

to meet the future needs.

Economical support mechanisms

The indicators give a basis to develop supporting

mechanisms and incentives for development and

implementation of energy and material efficiency

activities. Taxation is a strong incentive and

would suit well to support sustainable options.

Implementation of CO 2 tax comprehensively

calls for actions and agreements on international

(EU/OECD) level, and implementation of all parties.

Taxation on use of natural resources would

decrease excess use and also improve efficient

use of resources. Excess consumption could also

have its own tax to lead to reduced consumption

of resources and products.

Novel technology and applications could receive

special extra funding for energy and material efficiency

solutions in R&D support. Risk financing

and standardization enable to bring new technological

solutions and applications faster and easier

to the market. Commercialization of new systems

and products need support. Entrepreneurship

should be supported also by new and flexible

funding options and start funding.

Improving transport and mobility systems need

public support. Development of supportive pricing

systems for public transport and mobility

would increase the attractiveness of public transport.

One harsh option would be to cancel the tax

deduction for using private cars to work.

Energy and material efficient

technical solutions

Energy storage and distribution technology and systems

must be developed to avoid losses through the

process. Technology needs public support through,

e.g. investment and R&D support. Regional and local

waste recycling, processing and utilisation systems

can be developed to maximise the use of those

for energy production and new materials.

New inexpensive technological solutions for smallscale

production of solar, wind and bioenergy

(biogas, biodiesel) applications could ensure faster

63


market uptake. Those are important especially in

rural areas. Novel, inexpensive small-scale solutions

would fit well for export market.

Public transport services need to be developed to

better meet the consumers’ and society’s needs.

Better services increase the attractiveness of public

transport also.

There are, however, some barriers foreseen,

which might hinder or slow down the progress.

Carbon free energy production by nuclear power

might hinder the development and implementation

of new renewable energy solutions. Development

of renewable energy applications which

turn out to produce excess amounts of CO 2

through the life-cycle and use heavily natural resources

present a barrier also.

5.5 Conclusions and

recommendations

The roadmap presented in chapter 5.4 describes

well the future steps forward identifying the key

drivers, the central solutions how to reach the target

and the pre-requisites i.e. skills, practices and

changes needed to accommodate the solutions.

The proposed vision lies strongly on developing

and improving education and training on energy

and material efficiency comprehensively on all

levels, from primary education to continuing

training of professionals. In addition to education

research has strong foothold as well. Major

change in consumption behaviour and attitudes is

necessary and those can be achieved with the education

but also active information dissemination

and advice, demonstrating good examples and

economical benefits.

In order to bring the novel energy and material efficient

products and services to the market, strong

economical support and demonstration projects

are necessary. Policy makers and decision makers

must have strategic will and be committed to support

regulation with economic incentives towards

sustainable development.

64

Strengths and opportunities of

Finnish industry

Finland can best achieve the goals to develop new

industrial products and services for global market

by relying on the strengths today’s Finland has.

The basis lies on the industries, services and expertise

which are Finland’s strongest export products

today. The background is solid due to the

long experience of long-term energy efficiency

planning in several sectors.

Information and Communications

Technology ICT

Some of Finland’s best known export companies

operate in ICT sector. The ICT provides opportunities

for other sectors’ development and new

products in future. Easy communication, teleworking,

internet solutions and services accommodate

opportunities for new service products

and applications for Finnish companies on global

market.

Material and energy efficient products

and services

Finland is already one of the leading countries in

development of energy efficient services, e.g. energy

audit methodology. That expertise will be in

higher demand globally and facilitate also development

of new service products around that expertise.

Integrating material efficiency into energy

efficiency the services and products have

better competence on the global market.

Finland has developed a high competence in material

and energy efficiency. This expertise and

competence are Finland’s future export products.

Capacity building in energy and material efficiency

is in great demand in economies in transition

and developing countries.

Low-energy building applications and

services

Finnish construction industry has developed energy

efficient applications and solutions in the

building sector. Intelligent buildings are on the


market already. Intelligent renovation solutions,

new materials, insulation technologies and integrated

ICT solutions in buildings among many

are Finland’s future export products. Finnish

know-how of full concepts, design and planning

services and intelligent building products, all

those material and energy efficient of course, will

be in demand on global market.

This sector needs strong support for maintaining

the expertise and developing the products and

services for global market in the future.

Efficient processes

One of Finland’s strongest sectors has been energy

intensive process industry. In order to be

competent on the market the processes have been

developed energy and material efficient. That expertise

and experience is valuable in developing

new industries and products, but also as service

product on global market. Investments in developing

and productizing energy and material efficiency

service concepts and applications

strengthen Finland’s role in global competition.

Design

Finland is known for its designers and design industry.

New devices and appliances come to market

in ever increasing pace. New models follow

the previous ones in a few months’ time, demand

for new designs and attractive products is increasing.

Finland could generate a growing business of

design services and concepts on global market.

Small-scale energy production

applications

Finland is sparsely populated country in cold climate

zone. Development of energy production

systems in remote areas has been a necessity. The

technology has been developed alongside with

the larger-scale applications. Micro-generation

has been developed using different sources of energy,

however, in Finland bioenergy is naturally

the most important source. The small-scale appli-

cations suit well in other environments also and

could make a successful export product on global

market, especially in remote areas.

Recommendations

The main driving forces towards sustainable energy

and material efficient society are the climate

change and increasing competition on decreasing

energy supply. The threat of international crisis,

uncertainty of global politics and whether values

and attitudes support sustainability present new

challenges also. To reach the target of successful

and operational society based on material and energy

efficiency the following initiatives and actions

are recommended.

R&D and education

Comprehensive education and training on energy

and material efficiency for all. The biggest challenges

are in provision of continuing education

and training for all working force including policy

and decision makers, administration, private

and public sector services and industry. Primary

and vocational education is important also, material

and energy efficiency should be integrated in

curricula to produce competence in all sectors of

society. Information dissemination and behaviour

change training complement the specific education

on all levels.

Investing in stronger and more competent basis of

basic and applied research in material and energy

efficiency, and capacity building, enables the industry

to adapt the research results, demonstrate

the findings and develop new business opportunities.

Competent capacity of all stakeholders and efficient

R&D&I will support the change. Efficient

R&D&I mean open mind, active dialog and flawless

cooperation between universities and research

institutes, government organisations and

the industry.

65


Change in values, attitudes and

behaviour

Education and understanding are the key elements

to more conscious and sustainable energy

behaviour. Investment in financial and human resources

for information dissemination (means,

channels), advice, and demonstrations is crucial

to achieve results in attitude or behaviour change.

Repetition and continuing, long-perspective

work are the central means to bring the message

forward. On more concrete level demonstration

of economical benefits of energy and material efficiency

together with right targeted messages

bring success in long run.

Indicators and monitoring systems for

sustainability

Development of indicators suitable to measure

and monitor energy and material efficiency (CO 2,

life-cycle calculations) is important to present the

results but also to further develop the current systems.

Monitoring needs to provide easily understandable

information and positive messages: energy

and material efficiency is inexpensive, easy

and economically beneficial.

Indicators and monitoring methods are essential

to justify the investments, benefits and cost-efficiency

of material and energy efficiency actions.

Economical support instruments

Indicators provide information in monitoring the

effect of different support instruments. Legislation,

regulations as well as different incentives

and taxation shall be in line with the sustainability

goals. Sustainability supporting taxation

is a powerful tool and fits well as incentive to support

sustainable options. Implementation of CO 2

tax comprehensively on international level calls

for international dialog and agreements.

New energy and material efficient technology

and applications should have a priority for R&D

66

support and market incentives, e.g. risk financing.

Production and marketing of energy and material

efficient products should have extra support

to lower the risk of companies.

Public support, e.g. subvented pricing, for public

transport and other sustainable mobility options

would increase their attractiveness.

Energy and material efficient technical

solutions

Energy storage and distribution technology and

systems need be developed to avoid losses

through the process. Technology needs public

support through, e.g. investment and R&D support.

Regional and local waste recycling, processing

and utilisation systems can be developed

to maximise the use of those for energy production

and new materials.

New inexpensive technological solutions for

small-scale production of solar, wind and

bioenergy (biogas, biodiesel) applications could

ensure faster market uptake. Those are important

especially in rural areas. Public transport services

need to be developed to better meet the consumers’

and society’s needs.

Strategic will on all levels

Strategic will towards sustainability is the core of

the development. It must be independent of political

and financial aspects and interests. The strategy

towards energy and material efficient society

must be long-term, continuously updated and developed

and continuing process. Strategic will is

as important on political level as in companies.

Strategic will towards sustainability facilitates

the basis (resources and means) for development

of education, R&D, information dissemination,

development of indicators for sustainability, economic

incentives and support for developing energy

and material efficient technical solutions.


6 Delphi survey

Alina Pathan and Mikko Syrjänen,

Gaia Consulting Ltd

6.1 Survey themes and

respondents

The objective of the Delphi-survey was to give an

input to the roadmap work by producing a

timeline of possible solutions created by technology

and other potential innovations. The first

draft set of statements were partly formulated on

the basis of previous Japanese Delphi study and

partly modified into and complemented with

statements that emphasized societal aspects more

than technology. The statements were then commented

first within Tekes and after a revision by

the panel members. The survey request was sent

to the panel members and to the email mailing

lists of selected Tekes technology program participants.

The Delphi survey consisted of background and

theme specific questions. The respondents were

able to answer to one or more of the three themes.

The themes and number of respondents per theme

were as follows:

Consumers, media and digital convergence

(48 respondents)

Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging

society (42 respondents)

Society based on energy and material

efficiency (46 respondents).

Each theme consisted of 3–6 areas presented below,

which included statements related to technological

or other solutions and their social application

or impact. For each statement, respondents

were requested to express their opinion on the

timing of the technical solutions and its social application.

Time of technical realization refers to

the time when the technology, approach or solu-

tion is ready at technical level. In the case of

non-technological innovations this means that

the organizational models, processes etc. have

been developed. Time of social application refers

to the time when the technology or other solution

is on the market and in use as a ready, competitive

product or the solutions is otherwise commonly

used. Unless otherwise stated the application refers

to the use of this technology or solution in

Finland.

In addition to the timing of individual statements,

more general questions were asked concerning

the respondents’ expertise, the relevance of the

areas covered in the survey to Finland as well as

the need for public policy measures in promoting

the solutions and their application. Each thematic

area had 33–39 statements and in addition some

general questions. Results of the Delphi-survey

were reported to the panel members in a

slideshow form. All of the statements and main

figures are presented in Appendix A.

Due to a tight schedule there was only one round

of the Delphi survey. Normally the Delphi

method is based on several rounds in which the

results of the previous round are given as feedback.

The survey was implemented as a web survey.

In total, 130 persons responded of which

some responded to several themes.

The respondents represented mainly research organizations

and businesses (see figure 6.1).

Nearly 67 % of the respondents were aged 41–60,

under 40-year olds were 27 % and over 61-yearolds

were only 6 %. Nearly 84 % of the respondents

were men – leaving female respondents to

only 16 %.

67


The structure of the report is as follows. Chapters

6.2–6.4 examine the Delphi-surveys results according

to each thematic area. Solutions, which

will be rapidly or exceptionally slowly socially

applied, are examined. The analysis has been

conducted by sorting statements by time of social

application and by calculating the differences between

technical realization and social application.

Chapter 6.5 compares the survey results between

different themes.

6.2 Media and ICT

Introduction

The “consumers, media and digital convergence”

theme in the Delphi survey was divided into three

different areas:

Area 1: Media technology for different

use contexts

Area 2: Media convergence and

media industry

Area 3: Technologies to support human

communication.

Area 1 included statements related to different

media technology in various contexts such as at

68

Figure 6.1. Respondent’s background organization (in percentages)

working and home environments, entertainment

and education. Area 2 included statements related

to individually-adapted advertising, readers-produced

newspapers, on-demand TV, electronic

substitutes to traditional alternatives etc.

Area 3 included statements related to better technologies

to support human communication such

as portable devices for people with disabilities,

telephones with real-time translation capabilities

and better search technologies.

The number of respondents for this theme varied

per statement and question but the average number

of respondents was 48.

To examine the background knowledge and reliability

of the statements, respondents were asked

to determine their expertise in each area (expert

knowledge/good knowledge/everyday knowledge).

The respondents had out of the three areas

most expert knowledge in Area 1 (44 %). In Area

2 respondents had mainly good knowledge

(57 %) and less expert knowledge (35 %). In Area

3 the level of expertise was partly similar to Area

2buteveryday knowledge based on sources such

as information from newspapers was the highest

in this area.


Respondents were also asked to determine the

level of competence, including research and development,

in Finland relative to the top level in

the world within each area (Figure 6.2). The results

may correlate the expertise of the respondents,

as Finland’s level of competent was considered

most of all among the top in Area 1 (52 %)

but mainly average in Area 2 (44 %) and in Area 3

(55 %). According to the respondents, Finland

Area 3: Technologies to support

human communication

Area 2: Media convergence and

media industry

Area 1: Media technology for

different user contexts

Figure 6.2. Level of competence in Finland

was not particularly leading nor behind in any

area but rather among the top or average.

The respondents were also asked to choose most

important measures that should be taken by the

government towards technological realization

and social application of the Consumers, media

and digital convergence –theme (Figure 6.3).

Over half of the respondents considered that the

0 20 40 60 80 100 %

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat

behind

Behind

Do not know

What are the most important measures that should be taken by the government toward technological

realization and social application (if any)? You should choose multiple policy measures.

Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 4,9)

Human resources development and

education

Strengthened industry-academicgovernment

and interdisciplinary

collaboration

Technology transfer from other

countries

Development of R&D infrastructure

Expansion of R&D funding for public

research organization and companies

Internationalization of R&D activities

Ralaxation of elimination of relevant

regulations

Tightened or new regulations

Improvement of environment for

business startups

Support through taxation, subsidies,

and procurement

Other

Figure 6.3. Government policy measures

50%

45,7%

19,6%

28,3%

30,4%

43,5%

10,9%

2,2%

54,3%

8,7%

6,5%

23

21

9

13

14

20

5

1

25

4

3

69


government should improve environment for

business startups (54 %) as well as human resources

development and education (50 %).

Other important policy measures were considered

to be strengthening industry-academic government

and interdisciplinary collaboration (46

%) and internationalization of R&D activities (44

%). Tightened or new regulations of support

through taxation, subsidies and procurement

were not considered relevant policy measures for

this theme.

Statements

This chapter examines main statements, which

can be implemented in a short period of time or

which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.

Additionally statements, which have

had a short and long gap between technical realization

and social application, are examined. The

focus is on medians but dispersions are also

partly examined.

Systems capable of identifying online content

harmful to young people was a statement, which

was considered to be soonest socially applied

(2010). Other statements which were considered

to be implemented and socially applied within the

next 5 years were media devices at home, which

can be controlled through single user interface

(2012) and a widely application of different 2 D

barcodes of suchlike technologies which can be

read by a mobile phone or other mobile terminals

(2013).

According to the respondents, long-term challenges

were e.g. technologies allowing computers

to electrically and magnetically read information

in the human brain. This was not thought to

be realized before 2036, which was beyond the

timeline of the focus of the Consumers, media

and digital convergence – theme. Other bigger issues

with a similar timeline were other statements

related to the human brain such as “Discovery of

a mechanism for the human brain to directly receive

a greater amount of information faster

70

by means of systems other than the visual (text)

and auditory (sound) systems” and “An external

brain function system that is wearable and operable

through a natural interface and can store general

knowledge like dictionaries as well as a large

amount of personal knowledge, experience, and

information to extend and enhance the brain’s

memory function.”.

Statements, which had a short gap between technical

realization and social application were

among others systems capable of identifying online

content harmful to young people (technical

2010, social 2012) and technologies that allow

utilizing networked, but heterogeneous, global

information sources like an encyclopaedias

(technical 2012, social 2014). Additionally, portable

conservation devices that allow people with

disabilities to convert their thought into speech

was considered quickly socially applicable after

its technical realization but this was though considered

to be implemented only in 2020-22.

Several statements had a long gap between their

technical realization and social application. This

means that technology might even be already

available but its wider application among society

takes time. Such cases could be found in each

area. The difference between the technical realization

and the social application of the statement

“Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority

of printed books in fiction” was particularly

significant with a 16 year gap. Respondents did

not also believe that half of working people

would work remotely from home or other places

using virtual technologies in the coming years despite

that the median of its technical realization is

2010. Respondents considered its social application

to realize only 10 years later. Another case of

slow social application compared to its possibility

of technical realization is artificial intelligence

chips, which would be capable of understanding

human feelings from facial expression.

According to respondents, its technical realization

could be possible in 2014 but social realization

not until 2022.


M3.13 A system capable of identifying the online

content harmful to young people and

automatically checking it.

M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled

through single user interface.

M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read

by a mobile phone or other mobile terminal,

are widely used in different applications.

M2.2 In such fields as art, theater, cinema, music, and

literature, there are artistic activities whose viability is

threatened due to a very small consumer population.

Such small-scale artistic activities can be made

economically viable not by increasing

M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find

the desired information through fuzzy instructions.

M1.10 Educational games are commonly used

for supporting learning in primary and

secondary education.

M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked,

but heterogeneous, global information sources

(the Web, etc.) like an encyclopedia

(including a summarization function of important

items and a question-and-answer mechanism).

M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from

the network new information and valuable knowledge

with high relevance to the specified topic and

presenting them.

M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue

(among 400 largest companies in Finland), that has no

office building and conducts all business operations

over the Internet (using e.g. virtual technology).

M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find

the desired information using instructions given

with sensible, natural language sentences

in everyday use.

M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that

allows searching through and distribution of TV, film,

and music archives of the past few years.

M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched

on mobile terminals.

M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with high

realism that enables, with the aid of a virtual agent,

participants to shareinformation material and

hold natural-language conversations.

M2.1 In TV and other broadcasting media, advertising

material can be adapted to individual viewers.

M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy

movies anywhere, anytime by directly projecting

images on their retinas.

M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely

integrated and half of the content in a national

newspaper is produced by the readers.

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Figure 6.4a. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social

application).

71


72

M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds the use

of broadcasting TV.

M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice,

can be integrated in paper based products

and it is possible to produce these in large

amounts quickly.

M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible

(thin and soft) that it can be substituted

for newspaper.

M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-tounderstand

story from fragmented facts and knowledge

and show it as a presentation (and can also add

presumably necessary figures and images

when instructed). Automatic system

(expert systems) that subs

M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that

can be used anytime and anywhere and

allows managing personal life and e.g. public services.

M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from home

or other proper places using virtual technologies that

allow sufficient social contacts with co-workers.

M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that

offer functions such as voice recognition and fuzzy search,

in addition to the information agent functions for

schedule management and access to databases.

M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to

remotely enjoy paintings or music performances as

if they were actually walking around a gallery,

looking at each painting, or sitting in a concert hall,

listening to a live performance.

M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be

watched without wearing special glasses

and feeling fatigue in homes.

M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack

with multifunctional paper like-terminal.

M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows

people with disabilities to convert their

thoughts into speech.

M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of

understanding human feelings

from facial expressions.

M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with

real-time language translation capability.

M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute

majority of printed books in fiction.

M3.3 Technology that allows the computer to electrically

and magnetically read the information recorded

in the human brain.

M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism for the human brain

to directly receive a greater amount of information

faster by means of systems other than the visual (text)

and auditory (sound) systems.

M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable

and operable through a natural interface and can store

general knowledge like dictionaries as well as

a large amount of personal knowledge,experience,

and information to extend and enhance the brain

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Figure 6.4b. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social

application).


6.3 Health

Introduction

The “Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging

society” theme in the Delphi survey was divided

into five different areas:

Area 1: Health promotion & prevention

Area 2: Medicine

Area 3: Medical care for the elderly

Area 4: Health care system

Area 5: Technologies, environment and

society for ambient assisted living

Area 1 included statements related to personal fitness

programs, various methods to diagnose diseases

and disorders as well as nutrition questions.

Area 2 covered statements related to personalized

medicine, drug delivery systems and drugs for

diseases. Area 3 covered statements related solutions

for the elderly such as nursing-care robots,

stem cell therapies and implanted medical devices.

Area 4 included only four statements and

they included statements related to health services,

care provider organizations/agents and implanted

ID chips. Area 5 covered statement related

to smart homes, technology for the elderly,

transport systems and work environments.

The number of respondents for this theme varied

slightly per statement and question but the average

and maximum number of respondents to a

single question was 42.

Area 5: Technologies, environment

andsociety for ambient

assisted living

Area 4: Health care system

Area 3: Medical care for

the elderly

Area 2: Medicine

Area 1: Health promotion and

prevention

Figure 6.5. Level of competence in Finland

0

20

40

To examine the background knowledge and reliability

of the statements, respondents were asked

to determine their expertise in each area. The respondents

had mostly good knowledge in all areas

(40,5–59,5 %). Expert knowledge respondents

had most in Area 4 (35,7 %) and Area 1

(33,3 %). In other areas less than a third of respondents

had expert knowledge of the questions.

The respondents’knowledge was based on everyday

knowledge such as information from newspapers

especially in Area 2 (35,7 %), Area 3 (26,8

%) and Area 5 (23,8 %).

Respondents were also asked to determine the

level of competence, including research and development,

in Finland relative to the top level in

the world within each area. The respondents considered

Finland’s level of competence to be

mainly average in all areas (Figure 6.5). Finland’s

competence was among the top primarily

in Area 1 in which the respondent’s also had expertise

knowledge. According to the respondents,

Finland was not particularly leading nor

behind in any area but rather among the top or average

in all areas.

The respondents were requested to choose most

important measures that should be taken by the

government towards technological realization

and social application of the Healthcare and

wellbeing to prepare for aging society –theme

(figure 6.6). The most important measure according

to the respondents is strengthening indus-

60

80

100

%

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat

behind

Behind

Do not know

73


try-academic government and interdisciplinary

collaboration (63 %). Other important policy

measures were considered to be improvement of

environment for business startups (46 %), human

resources development and education and interdisciplinary

collaboration (42 %) and internationalization

of R&D activities (42 %). All policy

measures were rather evenly distributed – only

tightened or new regulations of support through

taxation, subsidies and procurement was not considered

at all as a relevant policy measure for this

theme.

Statements

This chapter examines main statements, which

can be socially applied in a short period of time or

which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.

Additionally statements, which have

had a short and long gap between technical realization

and social application, are examined. The

focus is on medians but dispersions are also

partly examined.

74

What are the most important measures that should be taken by the government towards technological

realization and social application (if any)? You may choose multiple policy measures.

Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 5)

Human resources development and

education

Strengthened industry-academicgovernment

and interdisciplinary

collaboration

Technology transfer from other

countries

Development of R&D infrastructure

Expansion of R&D funding for public

research organization and companies

Internationalization of R&D activities

Ralaxation of elimination of relevant

regulations

Tightened or new regulations

Improvement of environment for

business startups

Support through taxation, subsidies,

and procurement

Other

14 in which a doctor performs diagnosis over the Internet

Figure 6.6. Government policy measures

41,5%

63,4%

26,8%

31,7%

34,1%

41,5%

14,6%

0%

46,3%

34,1%

4,9%

According to the respondents there are several

technologies that have already realized and can

be soon applied to society. Such states involved

among others public transport systems that support

the personal mobility of elderly and disabled

people (social application possible in 2011) as

well as design guidelines and requirements for

public spaces where anyone can move around

safely and without barriers )social application

possible in 2012). Personalized fitness programs

and centres for the elderly were considered to be

technologically realized in 2008 and be widely

socially applied in 2012. Additionally, health services

based on telemedicine services 14 and medical

data obtained at home or at field were considered

to be applied in 2012.

Respondents consider issues such as stem cell

therapies replacing failing organs (technical realization

2021, social application 2030) and regenerative

medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues and

organs to replace damaged and/or failing tissue

and organs (technical realization 2022, social ap-

17

26

11

13

14

17

6

0

19

14

2


W5.6 Public transport systems that support

the personal mobility of elderly

and disabled people.

W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and

centres for the elderly.

W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements for

public spaces where anyone can move around

safely and without barriers.

W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services

(in which a doctor performs diagnosis over the Internet)

and medical data obtained at home or at field.

W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to improve

mobility and balance, which significantly decrease

the accidents caused by slipping, falling etc.

W4.2 Sharing among all care provider

organizations of all relevant

customer & patient data.

W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed

for the elderly, including interactive, networking

and games demanding physical activity.

W1.2 Methods and technologies to

prevent osteoporosis.

W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep

disorders for "Healthy sleep".

W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor

each other's safety and health remotely.

W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.

W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that broker

and organise services for the elderly.

W5.3 A functioning market that meets the needs of

elderly for housing arrangements (e.g. LOHAS

(Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) housing,

adaptable houses and apartments etc.)

W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology)

to predict the risk for life style related diseases

(e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes).

W3.2 Computerized solo or group psychotherapy

systems for preventing and treating

mental disorders.

W1.5 Methods to diagnose the risk for

a neurodegenerative disease

(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Figure 6.7a. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social

application)

75


76

W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare: Shifting from the

current reactive diagnosis and treatment approach

to prospective assessment, personal health planning,

and selective individual treatment.

W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can

comfortably work fully using their abilities, and

work support technology for constructing

such an environment.

W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.

W2.3 Oral administration of insulin

W3.6 Implanted medical devices for incontinency

control (urination control).

W5.2 Technology for advanced mobility/ walking support

that can dramatically improve the social lives

of elderly and disabled people.

W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful information

for the elderly in urban public spaces so that they can

freely and safely move around (based on

ubiquitous computing, integrated sensors

and sensor networks).

W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify

a person e.g. in emergency care.

W5.1 An affordable, accessible, smart home with devices

and robots that assist an elderly person in eating,

bathing, using the toilet, and enjoying free time

without help from a caregiver.

W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with sensors enabling

closed loop control e.g. for pain, blood pressure

or diabetes management.

W5.5 A driving assistance system for people who

have difficulty in driving or are unable to drive

ordinary cars because of age-related problems.

W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered by

bio-energy sources such as body heat or blood flows

(e.g. health condition monitoring and

cardiac pacemaker).

W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer's disease.

W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver in

bathing without making the patient feel uncomfortable

or uneasy. 39 Artificial limbs with sensation.

W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs is based

on a patient’s symptoms, patient’s genetics and

the body’s cellular response to drug compounds

(Pharmacogenomics).

W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease

(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).

W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues

and organs to replace damaged and/or failing

tissue and organs.

W3.3 Stem cell therapies to replace

failing organs

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Figure 6.7b. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social

application)


plication 2028) to be particularly slowly implemented.

An additional issue to be implemented beyond

2025 was methods to prevent a neurodegenerative

disease such as Dementia or Alzheimer’s,

which was considered to be socially applied

in 2026 (technical realization possible in 2020).

Drugs to cure Alzheimer’s disease was an issue

considered to be quickly socially applied (2023)

as soon as technical realization (2022) is possible.

Other so-called “quick fixes” were oral administration

of insulin (technical realization

2016, social application 2018) and computerized

solo or group psychotherapy systems for preventing

and treating mental disorders (technical realization

2014, social application 2016).

Issues to be particularly slowly socially applied due

to attitude or other reasons were among others implanted

ID chip to automatically identify a person

e.g. in emergency care (technical realization 2009,

social application 2020) and driving assistance systems

for people who have difficulty in driving or are

unable to drive ordinary cars because of age-related

problems (technical realization 2013, social application

2022). Also stem cell therapies replacing

failing organs were not considered by the respondents

to be applied until 2030 although its technical

realization is possible in 2021.

6.4 Energy and material efficiency

Introduction

The “Society based on energy and material efficiency”

theme in the Delphi survey was divided

into five different areas:

Area 1: Housing, spatial planning and

infrastructures

Area 2: Industry, Business, Economy

Area 3: Transport, logistics

Area 4: Material efficiency

Area 5: Food production

Area 6: Energy production

Area 1 included statements related to smart

homes as well as new technologies for infrastructure,

housing and spatial planning. Area 2 included

statements related to energy technology,

paperless companies, energy and material consumption.

Area 3 covered statements related to

transportation and transport systems, joint use of

cars as well as use of wind and solar power. Area

4 covered statements related to recyclable materials,

packaging and material balances. Area 5 included

only three relating to food consumption

and production. Area 6 included statements related

to various energy production technologies.

The number of respondents varied per statement

and question but the average number of respondents

was 46.

To examine the background knowledge and reliability

of the statements, respondents were asked

to determine their expertise in each area.

The Society based on energy and material efficiency-

theme differed from the other themes

from the point of view that the respondents had

less Expert knowledge than in the other themes.

Most expert knowledge respondents had in Area

2: Industry, Business, Economy and Area 6: Energy

production but it was still limited to only a

quarter of respondents (25 %). The respondents

had mostly good knowledge in Areas 1–4 (55,4–

64,6 %). Area 5: Food production had only 3

statements and was thus a small area. It was also

an area in which respondents had least knowledge

as 59 % of the respondents’information was

based on everyday knowledge sources such as

newspapers. In Area 6 the respondents’ knowledge

was most evenly distributed (everyday

knowledge 25 %, good knowledge 44 %, expert

knowledge 29 %).

Respondents were also asked to determine the

level of competence, including research and development,

in Finland relative to the top level in

the world within each area. The respondents considered

Finland’s level of competence to be

mainly average in areas 1-5 (Figure 6.8). However,

in Area 6: Energy production Finland was

perceived to be specifically among the top. According

to the respondents, Finland was not particularly

leading nor behind in any areas.

The respondents were requested to choose most

important measures that should be taken by the

77


government towards technological realization

and social application of the Society based on energy

and material efficiency –theme (Figure 6.9).

The most important measure according to the respondents

is supporting through taxation, subsidies,

and procurement (49 %). Other important

policy measures were considered to be human resources

development and educations (45 %), hu-

78

Area 6: Energy production

Area 5: Food production

Area 4: Material efficiency

Area 3: Transport, logistics

Area 2: Industry, business, economy

Area 1: Housing, spatial planning

and infrastructures

Figure 6.8. Level of competence in Finland

0 20 40 60 80 100%

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat

behind

Behind

Do not know

What are the most important measures that should be taken by the government toward technological

realization and social application (if any)? You should choose multiple policy measures.

Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 5,6)

Human resources development and

education

Strengthened industry-academicgovernment

and interdisciplinary

collaboration

Technology transfer from other

countries

Development of R&D infrastructure

Expansion of R&D funding for public

research organization and companies

Internationalization of R&D activities

Ralaxation of elimination of relevant

regulations

Tightened or new regulations

Improvement of environment for

business startups

Support through taxation, subsidies,

and procurement

Other

Figure 6.9. Government policy measures

44,9%

40,8%

18,4%

36,7%

42,9%

26,5%

2%

42,9%

34,7%

49%

4,1%

man resources development and education (43

%) as well as expansion of R&D funding for public

research organization and companies (43 %).

Most important policy measures for this theme

were measures considered least important in

other themes. This represents the challenges of

advancing energy and material efficiency issues

and thus regulating policy measures are needed.

22

20

9

18

21

13

1

12

17

24

2


Statements

This chapter examines main statements, which

can be implemented in a short period of time or

which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.

Additionally statements, which have

had a short and long gap between technical realization

and social application, are examined. The

focus is on medians but dispersions are also

partly examined.

The “Society based on energy and material efficiency”

theme’s statements had significant differences

between technical realization and social

application in addition to an overall late social application

of the statements.

According to the respondents, solutions to be socially

applied in a relatively short perspective were

design schemes for civil engineering structures

and buildings that adopts the concept of life cycle

assessment (LCA) (technical realization 2011, social

application 2014) and technology for the early

detection of and response to large-scale forest fires

around the world (technical realization 2012, social

application 2015). Additionally, application of

prediction and assessment technologies and processes

in planning that are useful for the

minimization of environmental burdens on spatial

planning were considered to be socially applied

relatively soon (technical realization 2010, social

application 2015).

Issues that will be socially applied in a considerably

long time perspective were partly attitude-related

and partly technology-related. Nuclear fusion

electric power generation was considered to

be a major technological challenge as its technological

realization is according to the respondents

not possible until 2033 and social application not

possible before 2036. Other technologically challenging

solutions, which thus postpone social application

were hydrogen production processes

based on solar heat, thermochemical method using

nuclear heat or other environmentally viable technology

(technical realization 2023, social application

2030) and the use of wind and solar power in

ships (technical realization 2021, social application

2030).

Social application of food consisting mainly of

vegetables, which reduces significantly environmental

impacts like green house gas emissions,

represented a significant challenge in consumer

behaviour. This statement also had the longest

gap between technical realization and social application.

Technical realization was considered to

be possible in 2013 but social application not before

2032. This can be potentially explained by

the fact that 87 % of the respondents in this theme

were men 15 . Another attitude-related challenge

was the use of car sharing and other forms of joint

use of cars that are widely used in large cities

(technical realization 2007, social application

2021). Respondents also considered that the social

application of half of working people to work

remotely from home or other proper places using

virtual technologies would not occur before

2028.

Issues to be implemented rather rapidly were

above mentioned technology for the early detection

of and response to large-scale forest fires

around the world and design schemes for civil engineering

structures, and buildings that adopts

the concept of life cycle assessment (LCA). Respondents

also considered that the implementation

of LED-technology as the leading technology

for lightning in homes, offices etc. could occur

in 2015 (technical realization 2012).

15 See e.g. “Why Women Live Longer than Men”: http://www.ncahs.nsw.gov.au/men/index.php?pageid=922&siteid=191

79


80

E1.3 A design scheme for civil engineering structures and

buildings that adopts the concept of

ife cycle assessment (LCA).

E1.10 Technology for the early detection of and response

to large-scale forest fires around the world.

E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment technologies

and processes in planning that are useful for the minimization

of environmental burdens on spatial planning.

E1.5 LED-technology is the leading technology for

lightning in homes, offices etc.

E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering companies

(ESCO and MASCO) are commonly used in developing

energy and material efficiency in industries, other business

and public entities.

E4.6 All products include informative description covering

information about production, material balances

and emissions levels.

E4.2 Methodology for tracing and identifying materials

suitable for recycling (plastics and metals).

E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which electronics,

media, and internet are seamlessly connected, and the

system controls and optimises also lightning and temperature

taking into account circumstances and need.

E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and

sustainability is raising and this leads to significant changes

in energy consumption, energy production and energy and

material saving through consumer choices and market demand.

E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes for

SF6 gas (sulfur hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating, and

arc quenching in electrical equipment), which has been

additionally listed as a regulated substance by the

E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological solutions

reduce energy onsumption per capita in new housing areas

(including heating, lightning, appliances, local transport of goods

and people, etc.) in Finland by half.

E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers buy

services or lease or lend durables instead of

purchasing material products.

E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly based

on reuse systems.

E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.

E2.5 Most companies and public organisations, regardless

of size, go paperless and improve productivity as well as

energy and material efficiency through the digitization.

E2.8 Manufacturers' responsibility (producer responsibility)

for collecting and processing of discarded products is defined

by law, and reuse and recycling systems in which more than

90% of used material is reused or recycled become

E3.1 The need for transportation of material and people is

significantly decreased by the use of IT

(like traffic demand management systems).

E3.5 Car sharing and other forms of joint use of cars

are widely used in large cities.

E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic

elements based on biotechnology.

E1.8 New technology related to use of water (e.g. low water

or waterless cleaning clothes, dish washing etc.) and in waste

water systems lead to a significant reduction in the amount

of waste water (prevention of waste water as a guiding

E3.4 Common distribution systems across urban areas that

reduce the urban traffic needs stemming from an increased

volume of small-package deliveries due to the proliferation

of e-commerce.

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Figure 6.10a. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social

application)


E1.9 In the dense housing areas transportation of

the recyclables and disposable wastes are

organized by so called central vacuum

waste sorting/transpartion system.

E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle feed

or compost by efficient small scale plants (micro

cogeneration in households etc.) that use local biomaterial

like household and garden waste, weeds etc.

E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is replaced

by public transportation, walking and cycling, that are

made attractive e.g. by new innovations in information,

comfort, traffic safety etc.

E6.6 Formation of international consensus on the CO2

storage in oil and gas fields and

brine-filled formations.

E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling

to be performed locally by each house or household to

eliminate emissions and the need for collection.

E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large extent

based on eco efficient processes like fermentation

and drying by solar energy.

E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible

(thin and soft) that it can be substituted

for newspaper.

E5.3 Majority of the food consumption is produced locally

(near-production) and energy and material efficiency

in the production and logistic chain is reduced.

E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings

through a major industrial plant downsizing

(1/ 2 to 1/ 10 of current size) or a dramatic improvement

in plant serviceability by introducing modules in workflows,

recombining modules, and constructing

E6.3 Fuel cells for medium- and large-scale

electricity generation.

E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport systems are

widely used (automobiles, ships, etc.)

E2.1 Motors and other industrial electric power apparatuses

utilize high-temperature superconductivity.

E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric

power generation in areas that have electricity

distribution network.

E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from home

or other proper places using virtual technologies that allow

sufficient social contacts with co-workers.

E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production

processes by means of large-scale energy storage system

(superconductivity technology, a flywheel, a capacitor, etc.)

E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.

E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar heat,

thermochemical method using nuclear heat or other

environmentally viable technology.

E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and this

reduces significantly environmental impacts like

green house gas emissions.

E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Figure 6.10b. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social

application)

81


6.5 Comparison of the themes

This chapter presents briefly some comparisons

between the three themes focusing especially on

differences among social application of the statements

and policy measures.

Out of the three themes, time of social application

of the statements of the Healthcare and wellbeing

to prepare for aging society –theme was assessed

to be most rapid. Within this area there were also

the shortest gaps between technical realization and

social application. Attitude-related statements and

challenging solutions for certain diseases and

medication formed the major reasons for social

application to be prolonged. Social application of

the statements of the Consumers, media and digital

convergence –theme was generally slower than

the healthcare theme but significantly quicker than

the Society based on energy and material efficiency

theme. Certain issues in the Consumers,

media and digital convergence were technological

challenges and some attitude and societal challenges.

Society based on energy and material efficiency

theme was the most challenging theme

both from the technical realization perspective as

well as social application. According to the respondents,

most statements will take a long period

of time to be implemented.

82

Due to the problematic nature of energy and material

efficiency, policy measures needed to be

taken concerning the Society based on energy

and material efficiency –theme differed substantially

from the other two themes. Where the respondents

for the media and healthcare theme

considered tightened or new regulations as the

least important measure, it was among the most

important to the energy theme. In addition, support

through taxation, subsidies and procurement

was the most important policy measure for the

energy theme but which was less emphasized in

the other themes. In fact, the respondents for the

media and healthcare theme valued the same policy

measures as most important but in a different

order. Human resource development, strengthening

of industry-academic government, internationalization

of R&D activities and improvement

of environment for business startups were the

most important policy measures for these two

themes. Human resources development and education

was also the second most important measure

for the energy theme. Expansion of R&D

funding for public research organizations was

also a more important policy measure for the energy

themes than for the other themes.


7 Cross-thematic innovation potential

Mari Hjelt and Mikko Syrjänen,

Gaia Consulting Ltd

7.1 Background and structure

During the panel process it was recognized that

the thematic panels worked with several closely

linked issues. After completing the panel workshops,

the chairmen of the panels met and decided

that an additional workshop for examining

cross-cutting issues would be a useful addition to

the process. A half day workshop with the panel

chairmen and Tekes representatives was thus organized.

The workshop aimed to

identify the main cross-thematic issues and

work with a tentative road-map on selected

cross-cutting issues.

The workshop focused on the issues that have

links to all of the themes or to some of them (see

Figure 7.1). The time for the discussion was relatively

short and the participants aimed to avoid issues

that were already well covered in the panel

reports. The work proceeded in three steps:

1. Open discussion to present the panel results

and identify cross-thematic issues

2. Prioritization of few major issues

Energy and

material efficiency

Energy and

media

Energy and

wellbeing

Common for

all

Consumers,

media and digital

convergence

3. Defining a tentative road-map for each major

issue following the same road-map structure

the panels had used.

7.2 Cross-thematic challenges

and issues

Cross-cutting issues were identified based on a

joint discussion. The participants had had an opportunity

to read the panel reports beforehand

and the reports were also shortly presented in the

workshop. After that the group discussed the observations

of the linkages between the issues and

grouped different issues on the wall as a map following

the framework presented in Figure 7.1. A

simplified overview of the results is presented in

Figure 7.2 and described in more detail in the following.

Overall, the consumer perspective received more

attention in the discussion than the industry perspective.

There are few reasons for this. First,

both the wellbeing panel, and the consumer, media

and digital convergence panel had a strong

Wellbeing and

media

Wellbeing and

aging

Figure 7.1. Framework for positioning cross-thematic issues

83


emphasis on consumers and individuals creating

future opportunities. Also, the energy and material

efficient society panel largely had discussed

the future challenges from a consumer perspective

emphasizing the role of changing values and

attitudes. Second, all the panels shared a view

that many of the important future trends and uncertainties

are linked to the way how the societal

attitudes develop in the future. Indeed, one of the

major themes in the cross-cutting discussion was

a debate whether the future societal values will

emphasize individualism or collectivism. Third,

the consumer perspective also got more attention

because throughout the panels the role of the services

and increased consumer wealth were seen

as the major future drivers for the economy. Finland

also faces major challenges in the future especially

in the service sector.

In addition to the discussion whether the future

societal values and attitudes will emphasize individualism

or collectivism, the other major drivers

identified as relevant trends linking the panel

themes were the following:

Patterns in the use of time and leisure activities.

How will people allocate their time if

there is more flexibility, e.g., in working

hours? Will they use their time in ways that

consume a lot of energy and materials? Will

84

Energy and

material efficiency

Individualism

collectivism

Climate

change

Logistics

Net

communities

Mobility

Use of time

Smart living

Tourism

Services

Consumers

media and digital

convergence

Preventive

actions

Good physical

condition

Figure 7.2. An overview of the main cross-thematic issues

Wellbeing and

aging

Use of free

time

they sit next to different media or will they invest

the time on sports and wellbeing?

Increased role of ICT cross-cutting all societal

themes. It was agreed that definitely the

role of ICT and different media channels in our

everyday lives will increase. Home entertainment

solutions, ubiquitous environments and

continuous net presence will open up new opportunities

and solutions relevant for all the

panel themes as well as challenges (e.g., use of

energy will increase due to an increased

amount of electronic equipment surrounding

us, low mobility and low physical activity level

might drop to a level that will create large societal

health problems).

Net communities. What will be the role of

emerging net communities shaping our societies

and behavior? How much will the individuals

take control over their own media usage and activity

and how much will there be different

agents taking control over personal media usage.

Attitudes towards preventive actions will be

very important both for wellbeing and for environmental

themes. The participants discussed

whether the individuals have an interest for

making choices beneficial for future generation

or even for themselves on the longer run

(i.e., avoiding obesity) or whether individuals

now and in the future have interest only on issues

close oneself in the short run.


Increased costs of energy and materials and

climate change were named as the major

trends that will greatly affect the societies in

the future. Also aging was recognized as one

of the major drivers that will create the opportunities

for Finland.

Major issues identified as the most important

cross-cutting topics can be grouped under the following

titles and themes. These themes and these

conclusions were produced through few separate

discussion steps.

1. Smart and sustainable living

environments

Finnish building infrastructure will face a large

renovation and re-building boom as the building

generation from the first urbanization period after

WWII is getting old. At the same time there is a

need for housing suitable for aging population.

This situation creates a great opportunity to build

living concepts that take into account both needs

of aging people as well as the energy and material

efficiency. The export opportunities for these solutions

are also very good. The participants particularly

emphasized the role of increasing Russian

markets. Finnish building cluster is taking a

step ahead to use this opportunity, but it will be a

challenge. The specific issues discussed under

this topic were the following.

Flexibility and adaptability are the main characteristics

of future buildings and environments.

Aim is to increase the life cycle of

buildings.

Home ICT is at the edge of big changes. Monitoring

and continuous network connections

open up new opportunities (easy communication

with personal networks from your home,

net communities for social interaction from

home, increased interaction with the surrounding

environment through monitoring)

Home entertainment solutions emphasizing

physical exercise may gain momentum.

“Functional Games” boom may emerge soon.

Smart home solutions – monitoring and automation

enable new energy and resource man-

agement solutions. The solutions may bring

the information visible and easily accessible

(consumers have a strong control over the

management and see effects of their actions)

and/or intelligent agents take care of optimization.

Home is only one module of the living environment.

Decisions and changes in spatial planning

as a whole will be a major issue.

2. Mobility

Generally the participants shared a view that the

mobility of people will decrease in the future. The

main driver for this argument is the increased price

of energy and costs of mobility. The ICT solutions

also enable the communication and completion of

different functions through other means than by

face-to-face meetings. However, it was also

stressed that there is great uncertainty of the connection

between ICT and mobility. The research

results are in contradiction whether ICT and increased

use media technologies are going to increase

or decrease mobility. Mobility is also one of

the key themes for aging society. Some of the activities

and functions can be covered by ICT solutions

but not all. The capability of the aging population

to move themselves is one the key issues.

General issues discussed were the following.

Changing time use patterns and the ways how

people will organize their work and leisure

time will affect a lot this issue. Division of activities

to “staying in on place” and “being on

the move” will become on one hand more important

and on the other hand this division will

get blurred. Net presence will become a normal

way of interaction.

If people move around less, the “village” societies

will get stronger. Net will provide an important

“window to outside world” and will be

very important part of normal life. There will

be more net communities having an important

role.

No-car-societies will emerge. Mobility theme

is strongly linked with smart living concept

and spatial urban planning.

85


3. Service business

Service business was identified as one of the main

cross-cutting opportunity and challenge for all of

the themes. The following discussion items

linked to the services.

ICT and media tools enable new types of

wellbeing services combining also entertainment

and leisure time needs. These opportunities

are yet unexplored.

Generally aging society will need a variety of

wellbeing and health support services. These

markets will grow.

Net communities will be used actively to also

explore the tacit knowledge about aging people

who will actively participate themselves.

Eco-efficiency concepts and media services

will be efficiently combined. Persuasive media

service will direct consumer behavior aiming

to, e.g., reduce energy consumption.

More virtual service production concepts will

emerge.

4. Tourism

Tourism was identified as one cross-cutting opportunity

combining Finnish pure nature ecotourism,

benefits that we get from the climate

change, increased health tourism due to wealthy

aging population, and virtual tourism opportunities

offered by ICT tools. Particularly, the potential

for virtual tourism solutions will increased if

the mobility of the people will be reduced due to

the increases costs and aim for energy efficiency.

5. Being in Good Shape

The participants were worried of physical activity

level of the generation being now 15 – 35 years

old. In few decades there might be serious national

health problems if this issue is not solved in

the short run. This challenge combines all the

themes from the following viewpoints or perspectives.

The public health care costs will explode if this

issue is not taken seriously now and solutions

sought for. The solutions to this would also be

major business opportunities on the wellbeing

sector.

86

ICT and media tools are both a problem and a

potential solution. ICT may decrease the everyday

mobility, reducing the normal physical

activity level. The again, there is a big opportunity

to develop new solutions and services that

motivate people to stay in shape (e.g., life span

monitoring of health).

New environmentally friendly and energy efficient

solutions to maintain good personal

physical shape can be developed.

6. Green ICT society

Many of the discussed issues were linked to the

overarching role of ICT in future society and

whether there is a Finnish opportunity to become

a true Green ICT nation. The following specific

issues on this theme were touched.

ICT sector has a big challenge to create energy

efficient solutions which will become more

important when the use of the ICT is constantly

expanding.

In the ICT sector the pace of development is

very fast. A challenge is to get the slower and

more conservative energy industry cluster to

the same speed.

Finnish forest cluster is facing big structural

changes. This change should be seen as an opportunity

for becoming energy and material efficient

society.

Logistics will generally be a big future challenge.

Although the mobility of people might be

decreasing, the movement of goods in global logistic

chains most likely will increase. Solutions

to these problems are often ICT based.

7.3 Identified innovation

potential

The next step of the work focused on selecting few

issues for which a tentative road-map of the objectives

and solutions was produced. Before proceeding

towards the brainstorming more detailed solutions,

the participants had a general discussion on

the relevance of the issues for the future in Finland.

The discussion emphasized the consumer perspective,

but at this phase it was stressed that the


Finnish economy needs also in the future a strong

industry basis and viable clusters. Three conditions

were identified as common for all the issues

and for any other area in which future economic

growth in Finland will be sought for.

1. The services and products need to be exported

and the aim is to get into the global markets.

Even if the specific product or service aims to

solve challenges typical for Finland and in

Finland, it is attractive for economy only if it

also has some market potential abroad.

2. The services and products need to form larger

integrated solutions combining many individual

solutions to provide clear added value.

3. The business partners, subcontractors, and clients

are globally dispersed, but the Finnish

companies should aim to be in the positions

where they are able to have the control over the

management of the product value networks

and distribution channels.

The following three major topics were identified

as the most interesting ones for further discussion.

1. Wellbeing services

2. Smart living and smart buildings concepts

3. Mobility management

For each one of these topics the participants

worked as pairs to identify the main drivers, aim

and solutions. The drivers identified for each topic

were the same as described earlier. The main aim

and some solutions are described below.

Wellbeing services – Total concept of

healthy living

Vision: Create ”turn-key solutions” for healthy

and eco-efficient living environments covering

all aspects of life (could be houses, building

blocks, city areas, cities, regions…)

Solutions:

Integrated planning taking into account transport,

logistics, waste and water management,

ICT infrastructure etc. for people in all different

age groups. Special attention paid for encouraging

to sport and being active.

Different business segments and different type

of knowledge needs to be integrated. (As an example

a “good sleep hotels” concept was mentioned)

Create living lab –pilots

Instead of vertical networks there needs to be

larger clusters to invest and create integrated solutions

that aim to global markets (e.g. Russian)

Smart living and intelligent buildings

Vision: There are adaptive housing solutions that

promote individual well-being and low consumption

of natural resources

Solutions:

Energy consumption adapts to changing everyday

needs

New spatial planning solutions reduce the need

to move

Smart technologies are developed for 2 nd

homes and summer cottages – automation and

robotics

Self-diagnostics of housing related issues and

problems are developed – sensors and data

management

New smart materials (nanotechnologies)

Awareness technologies – comparison among

friends and families would be used as a social

incentive

Smart insulation – Finnish know-how to global

markets

Knowledge and promotion of good practices

through media

Integrated home ICT solutions

Energy and building companies as key business

actors – Hybrid solutions for home energy

consumption, new service concepts

“Smart renovation”

Mobility management

Vision: Energy consumption due to the mobility

of people and goods will remarkably decrease

Solutions:

Car sharing, management of everyday logistics

Management of mobility due to public services

(health care, social services)

87


88

Call on demand -solutions

Use of real-time location data (mobile services,

waiting times etc.)

New generation route planners – more dynamic

and more customer oriented individually

tailored solutions

Distance working and new working time and

work planning solutions

Transport pricing solutions (road tolls, energy

price etc.)

New trusted third party service providers and

facilitators, trusted operators

New solutions – tools and services – for collective

mobility

Logistics solutions


Appendix A

Full Delphi survey results

Background questions

What is the type of your background organization?

Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 2)

Age

Gender

Business

Research

Public funding agency (e.g.Tekes)

Other

Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 1,8)

-40

41–60

61-

Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 1,8)

Female

Male

Number of responds (average)

32,3%

45,4%

16,2%

6,2%

26,9%

66,9%

6,2%

16,2%

83,8%

• Consumers, media and digital convergence (48 respondents)

Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society (42 respondents)

Society based on energy and material efficiency (46 respondents)

42

59

21

8

35

87

8

21

109

89


Consumers, media and digital convergence – introduction

Area 1: Media technology for different use contexts

90

Statements

M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue (among 400 largest companies

in Finland), that has no office building and conducts all business operations

over the Internet (using e.g. virtual technology).

M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with high realism that enables,

with the aid of a virtual agent, participants to share information material and hold

natural-language conversations.

M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from home or other proper

places using virtual technologies that allow sufficient social contacts with

co-workers.

M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy movies anywhere, anytime by

directly projecting images on their retinas.

M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to remotely enjoy paintings

or music performances as if they were actually walking around a gallery, looking

at each painting, or sitting in a concert hall, listening to a live performance.

M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled through single user interface.

M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special

glasses and feeling fatigue in homes.

M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin and soft) that it can be substituted

for newspaper.

M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack with multifunctional paper

like-terminal.

M1.10 Educational games are commonly used for supporting learning in primary

and secondary education.

M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that can be used anytime and

anywhere and allows managing personal life and e.g. public services.


Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue...

M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with...

M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from...

M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy...

M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to...

M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled...

M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched...

M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin...

M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack with...

M1.10 Educational games are commonly used for...

M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that can...

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 3,2)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of

the questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

6,3%

29,2%

20,8%

29,2%

14,6%

0%

3

14

10

14

7

0

91


92

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,2; total: 48)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4,4; total: 48)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

4,2%

14,6%

39,6%

39,6%

2,1%

0%

4,2%

10,4%

31,2%

54,2%

0%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,6)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

2,1%

52,1%

35,4%

4,2%

6,3%

0%

0

2

7

19

19

1

0

2

5

15

26

0

42

59

21

2

3

0


Area 2: Media convergence and media industry

Statements

M2.1 In TV and other broadcasting media, advertising material can be adapted to

individual viewers.

M2.2 In such fields as art, theater, cinema, music, and literature, there are artistic

activities whose viability is threatened due to a very small consumer population.

Such small-scale artistic activities can be made economically viable not by increasing

the

M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely integrated and half of the

content in a national newspaper is produced by the readers.

M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds the use of broadcasting TV.

M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched on mobile terminals.

M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that allows searching through

and distribution of TV, film, and music archives of the past few years.

M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice, can be integrated in paper based

products and it is possible to produce these in large amounts quickly.

M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority of printed books in fiction.

M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read by a mobile phone or

other mobile terminal, are widely used in different applications.

93


94

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

M2.1 In TV and other broadcasting media, advertising material

can be adapted to individual viewers.

M2.2 In such fields as art, theater, cinema, music, and literature,

there are artistic activities whose viability is threatened due to

a very small consumer population. Such small scale...

M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely

!

integrated

and half of the content in a national newspaper is produced

by the readers.

M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds the use of broadcasting TV.

M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched

on mobile terminals.

M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that

allows searching through and distribution of TV, film,

and music archives of the past few years.

M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice, can be integrated

in paper based products and it is possible to produce

these in large amounts quickly.

M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority of

printed books in fiction.

M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read by

a mobile phone or other mobile terminal, are widely

used in different applications.

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 3)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of

the questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

8,3%

27,1%

29,2%

27,1%

8,3%

0%

4

13

14

13

4

0


What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

related to this theme in Finnish society (avg: 4; total: 48)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland (avg: 4; total: 46)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

8,3%

25%

29,2%

37,5%

0%

0%

6,5%

26,1%

30,4%

37%

0%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,8)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

2,1%

39,6%

43,8%

4,2%

8,3%

2,1%

0

4

12

14

18

0

0

3

12

14

17

1

0

19

21

2

4

1

95


Area 3: Technologies to support human communication

96

Statements

M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that offer functions such

as voice recognition and fuzzy search, in addition to the information agent functions

for schedule management and access to databases.

M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows people with disabilities to convert

their thoughts into speech.

M3.3 Technology that allows the computer to electrically and magnetically read

the information recorded in the human brain.

M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism for the human brain to directly receive a greater

amount of information faster by means of systems other than the visual (text) and

auditory (sound) systems.

M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable and operable through a

natural interface and can store general knowledge like dictionaries as well as a

large amount of personal knowledge, experience, and information to extend and

enhance the brain’s me

M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with real- time language translation capability.

M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from the network new information

and valuable knowledge with high relevance to the specified topic and

presenting them.

M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked, but heterogeneous, global information

sources (the Web, etc.) like an encyclopedia (including a summarization

function of important items and a question- and-answer mechanism).

M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-to-understand story from

fragmented facts and knowledge and show it as a presentation (and can also add

presumably necessary figures and images when instructed).Automatic system

(expert systems) that substitut

M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find the desired information

through fuzzy instructions.

M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find the desired information

using instructions given with sensible, natural language sentences in everyday

use.

M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of understanding human feelings

from facial expressions.

M3.13 A system capable of identifying the online content harmful to young people

and automatically checking it.


Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that offer

functions such as voice recognition and fuzzy search, in addition...

M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows people with

disabilities to convert their thoughts into speech.

M3.3 Technology that allows the computer to electrically and

magnetically read the information recorded in the human brain.

M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism for the human brain to directly

receive a greater amount of information faster by means of...

M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable and

operable through a natural interface and can store general...

M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with real-time

language translation capability.

M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from the network

new information and valuable knowledge with high...

M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked, but heterogeneous,

global information sources (the Web, etc.) like...

M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-to understand

story from fragmented facts and knowledge and...

M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find

the desired information through fuzzy instructions.

M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find

the desired information using instructions given with...

M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of understanding

human feelings from facial expressions.

M3.13 A system capable of identifying the online content harmful

to young people and automatically checking it.

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 2,8)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

14,3%

32,7%

24,5%

16,3% 8

12,2%

0%

7

16

12

6

0

97


98

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 48)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,9; total: 48)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

2,1%

6,2%

20,8%

52,1%

16,7%

2,1%

2,1%

12,5%

16,7%

31,2%

33,3%

4,2%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 2,9)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

2%

26,5%

55,1%

10,2%

4,1%

2%

1

3

10

25

8

1

1

6

8

15

16

1

2

13

27

5

2

1


Consumers, media and digital convergence

– Other innovations and observations

What are the most important measures that should be taken by the government

towards technological realization and social application (if any)?

You may choose multiple policy measures.

Number of question respondents 46 (avg: 4,9)

Human resources development and

education

Strengthened industry-academicgovernment

and interdisciplinary

collaboration

Technology transfer from other countries

Development of R&D infrastructure

Expansion of R&D funding for public

research organization and companies

Internationalization of R&D activitities

Relaxation or elimination of relevant

regulations

Tightened or new regulations

Improvement of environment for

business startups

Support through taxation, subsidies, and

procurement

Other

50% 23

45,7% 21

19,6% 9

28,3% 13

30,4% 14

43,5% 20

10,9% 5

2,2% 1

54,3% 25

8,7% 4

6,5%

3

99


Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society

– introduction

Area 1: Health promotion & prevention

100

Statements

W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare: Shifting from the current reactive diagnosis

and treatment approach to prospective assessment, personal health planning,

and selective individual treatment.

W1.2 Methods and technologies to prevent osteoporosis.

W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.

W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology) to predict the risk for life

style related diseases (e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes).

W1.5 Methods to diagnose the risk for a neurodegenerative disease (e.g. Dementia

or Alzheimer’s).

W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease (e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer’s).

W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep disorders for “Healthy sleep”.

W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and centres for the elderly.

W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed for the elderly, including interactive,

networking and games demanding physical activity.

W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to improve mobility and balance,

which significantly decrease the accidents caused by slipping, falling etc.


Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare:Shifting

from the current reactive diagnosis

and treatment approach to...

W1.2 Methods and technologies to

prevent osteoporosis.

W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.

W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology)

to predict the risk for life style related diseases (e.g....

W1.5 Methods to diagnose the risk

for a neurodegenerative disease

(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).

W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease

(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).

W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep disorders

for “Healthy sleep".

W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and

centres for the elderly.

W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed

for the elderly, including interactive,

networking and games...

W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to

improve mobility and balance, which

significantly decrease the...

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 3)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

7,1%

26,2%

33,3%

26,2% 11

7,1%

0%

3

16

14

6

0

101


102

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

Number of question respondents: 42

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 42)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 42)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

4,8%

23,8%

31%

40,5%

0%

0%

14,3%

26,2%

31%

28,6%

0%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,6)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

4,8%

42,9%

40,5%

11,9%

0%

0%

0

2

10

13

17

0

0

6

11

13

12

2

0

18

17

5

0

0


Area 2: Medicine

Statements

W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs is based on a patient’s symptoms,

patient’s genetics and the body’s cellular response to drug compounds

(Pharmacogenomics).

W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with sensors enabling closed loop control

e.g. for pain, blood pressure or diabetes management.

W2.3 Oral administration of insulin

W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.

W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer’s disease.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs

is based on a patient’s symptoms,

patient’s genetics...

W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with

sensors enabling closed loop

control e.g. for pain, blood...

W2.3 Oral administration of insulin

W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.

W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer's disease.

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,3)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

35,7%

31%

9,5%

14,3%

7,1%

2,4%

15

13

4

6

3

1

103


104

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 41)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 41)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

4,9%

24,4%

39%

17,1%

14,6%

0%

14,6%

29,3%

36,6%

7,3%

12,2%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 3,2)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

0%

29,3%

46,3%

9,8%

4,9%

9,8%

0

4

12

14

18

0

0

6

12

15

0

3

5

12

19

4

2

4


Area 3: Medical care for the elderly

Statements

W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver in bathing without making

the patient feel uncomfortable or uneasy.39 Artificial limbs with sensation."

W3.2 Computerized solo or group psychotherapy systems for preventing and

treating mental disorders.

W3.3 Stem cell therapies to replace failing organs

W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues and organs to replace

damaged and/or failing tissue and organs.

W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered by bio-energy sources such as

body heat or blood flows (e.g. health condition monitoring and cardiac pacemaker).

W3.6 Implanted medical devices for incontinency control (urination control).

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver

in bathing without making the patient feel...

W3.2 Computerized solo or group psychotherapy

systems for preventing and treating

mental disorders.

W3.3 Stem cell therapies to replace failing organs

W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid

tissues and organs to replace damaged and/or...

W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered

by bio-energy sources such as

body heat or blood flows...

W3.6 Implanted medical devices for incontinency

control (urination control).

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 2,4)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

26,8%

29,3%

24,4%

17,1%

0%

2,4%

11

12

10

7

0

1

105


106

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

Number of question respondents: 42

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 42)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 42)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0% 0

7,1% 3

21,4% 9

38,1% 16

21,4% 9

11,9% 5

0%

21,4%

19%

31%

14,3%

14,3%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 3,6)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

0%

21,4%

38,1%

19%

2,4%

19%

0

9

8

13

0

9

6

6

16

8

1

8


Area 4: Health care system

Statements

W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services (in which a doctor performs

diagnosis over the Internet) and medical data obtained at home or at field.

W4.2 Sharing among all care provider organizations of all relevant customer &

patient data.

W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify a person e.g. in emergency

care.

W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that broker and organise services for

the elderly.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services

(in which a doctor performs diagnosis over the Internet)

and medical data obtained at home or at...

W4.2 Sharing among all care provider organizations of

all relevant customer & patient data.

W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify a

person e.g. in emergency care.

W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that

broker and organise services for the elderly.

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,8)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

11,9%

35,7%

16,7%

28,6%

7,1%

0%

5

15

7

12

3

0

107


108

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

Number of question respondents: 42

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,2; total: 42)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 42)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

2,4%

23,8%

31%

40,5%

2,4%

0%

7,1%

33,3%

35,7%

21,4%

2,4%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,7)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

2,4%

40,5%

47,6%

7,1%

0%

2,4%

1

17

20

3

0

1

0

1

10

13

17

1

0

9

8

15

9

1


Area 5: Technologies, environment and society for ambient assisted living

Statements

W5.1 An affordable, accessible, smart home with devices and robots that assist

an elderly person in eating, bathing, using the toilet, and enjoying free time without

help from a caregiver.

W5.2 Technology for advanced mobility/ walking support that can dramatically

improve the social lives of elderly and disabled people.

W5.3 A functioning market that meets the needs of elderly for housing arrangements

(e.g. LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) housing, adaptable

houses and apartments etc.)

W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor each other’s safety and

health remotely.

W5.5 A driving assistance system for people who have difficulty in driving or are

unable to drive ordinary cars because of age-related problems.

W5.6 Public transport systems that support the personal mobility of elderly and

disabled people.

W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements for public spaces where anyone can

move around safely and without barriers.

W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful information for the elderly in urban

public spaces so that they can freely and safely move around (based on ubiquitous

computing, integrated sensors and sensor networks).

W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can comfortably work fully

using their abilities, and work support technology for constructing such an environment.

109


110

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

W5.1 An affordable, accessible, smart home with

devices and robots that assist an elderly person in...

W5.2 Technology for advanced mobility/ walking

support that can dramatically improve the social lives...

W5.3 A functioning market that meets the needs of

elderly for housing arrangements (e.g. LOHAS...

W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor

each other's safety and health remotely.

W5.5 A driving assistance system for people who have

difficulty in driving or are unable to drive ordinary...

W5.6 Public transport systems that support the

personal mobility of elderly and disabled people...

W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements for public

spaces where anyone can move around safely and...

W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful

information for the elderly in urban public spaces so...

W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can

comfortably work fully using their abilities, and work...

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,5)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

23,8%

33,3%

19%

14,3% 6

9,5%

0%

10

14

8

4

0


What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4; total: 42)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4; total: 42)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

2,4%

28,6%

40,5%

23,8%

4,8%

0%

2,4%

35,7%

28,6%

26,2%

7,1%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 3)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

0%

26,8%

56,1%

9,8%

2,4%

4,9%

1

11

23

4

1

2

0

1

12

17

10

2

0

1

15

12

11

3

111


Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society

– Other innovations and observations

112

What are the most important measures that should be taken by the

government towards technological realization and social application (if any)?

You may choose multiple policy measures.

Number of question respondents 41 (avg: 5)

Human resources development and

education

Strengthened industry-academicgovernment

and interdisciplinary

collaboration

Technology transfer from other countries

Development of R&D infrastructure

Expansion of R&D funding for public

research organization and companies

Internationalization of R&D activitities

Relaxation or elimination of relevant

regulations

Tightened or new regulations

Improvement of environment for

business startups

Support through taxation, subsidies, and

procurement

Other

41,5% 17

63,4% 26

26,8% 11

31,7% 13

34,1% 14

41,5% 17

14,6% 6

0% 0

46,3% 19

34,1% 14

4,9%

2


Society based on energy and material efficiency – introduction

Area 1: Housing, spatial planning and infrastructures

Statements

E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which electronics, media, and internet

are seamlessly connected, and the system controls and optimises also lightning

and temperature taking into account circumstances and need.

E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment technologies and processes in

planning that are useful for the minimization of environmental burdens on spatial

planning.

E1.3 A design scheme for civil engineering structures and buildings that adopts

the concept of life cycle assessment (LCA).

E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological solutions reduce energy

consumption per capita in new housing areas (including heating, lightning, appliances,

local transport of goods and people, etc.) in Finland by half.

E1.5 LED-technology is the leading technology for lightning in homes, offices

etc.

E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling to be performed locally

by each house or household to eliminate emissions and the need for collection.

E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.

E1.8 New technology related to use of water (e.g. low water or waterless cleaning

clothes, dish washing etc.) and in waste water systems lead to a significant reduction

in the amount of waste water (prevention of waste water as a guiding principle).

E1.9 In the dense housing areas transportation of the recyclables and disposable

wastes are organized by so called central vacuum waste sorting/transpartion system.

E1.10 Technology for the early detection of and response to large-scale forest

fires around the world.

113


114

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which

electronics, media, and internet are seamlessly...

E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment

technologies and processes in planning that are useful...

E1.3 A design scheme for civil engineering structures

and buildings that adopts the concept

of life cycle assessment...

E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological

solutions reduce energy consumption per capita in new...

E1.5 LED-technology is the leading technology

for lightning in homes, offices etc.

E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling

to be performed locally by each house or household to...

E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.

E1.8 New technology related to use of water

(e.g. low water or waterless cleaning

clothes, dish washing etc.)...

E1.9 In the dense housing areas transportation of the

recyclables and disposable wastes are organized by so...

E1.10 Technology for the early detection of and response

to large-scale forest fires around the world.

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 2,5)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

21,7%

41,3%

17,4%

10 ,9%

6,5%

2,2%

10

19

8

5

3

1


What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

4,4%

8,9%

20%

35,6%

26,7%

4,4%

4,4%

8,9%

26,7%

26,7%

31,1%

2,3%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,1)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

2,2%

28,3%

47,8%

10,9%

2,2%

8,7%

1

13

22

5

1

4

2

4

9

16

12

2

2

4

12

12

14

1

115


Area 2: Industry, Business, Economy

116

Statements

E2.1 Motors and other industrial electric power apparatuses utilize high-temperature

superconductivity.

E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production processes by means

of large-scale energy storage system (superconductivity technology, a flywheel,

a capacitor, etc.)

E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes for SF6 gas (sulfur

hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating, and arc quenching in electrical equipment),

which has been additionally listed as a regulated substance by the Kyoto

Protocol.

E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings through a major industrial

plant downsizing (1/ 2 to 1/ 10 of current size) or a dramatic improvement in

plant serviceability by introducing modules in workflows, recombining modules,

and constructing modu

E2.5 Most companies and public organisations, regardless of size, go paperless

and improve productivity as well as energy and material efficiency through the

digitization.

E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from home or other proper

places using virtual technologies that allow sufficient social contacts with

co-workers.

E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin and soft) that it can be substituted

for newspaper.

E2.8 Manufacturers’ responsibility (producer responsibility) for collecting and

processing of discarded products is defined by law, and reuse and recycling systems

in which more than 90% of used material is reused or recycled become

widespread in most product

E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and sustainability is raising

and this leads to significant changes in energy consumption, energy production

and energy and material saving through consumer choices and market demand.


Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

E2.1 Motors and other industrial electric power

apparatuses utilize high-temperature

superconductivity.

E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production

processes by means of large-scale energy storage system

(superconductivity technology, a flywheel, a capacitor, etc.)

E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes for

SF6 gas (sulfur hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating,

and arcquenching in electrical equipment), which has been

additionally listed as a regulated substance

by the Kyoto Protocol.

E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings

through a major industrial plant downsizing (1/ 2 to 1/ 10

of current size) or a dramatic improvement in plant

serviceability by introducing modules in workflows,

recombining modules, and constructing

E2.5 Most companies and public organisations,

regardless of size, go paperless and improve

productivity as well as energy and

material efficiency through the digitization.

E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from

home or other proper places using virtual technologies

that allow sufficient social contacts with co-workers.

E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible

(thin and soft) that it can be substituted

for newspaper.

E2.8 Manufacturers' responsibility (producer responsibility)

for collecting and processing of discarded products is

defined by law, and reuse and recycling systems in

which more than 90% of used material is reused or

recycled become widespread in most...

E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and

sustainability is raising and this leads to significant

changes in energy consumption, energy production

and energy and material saving through

consumer choices and market demand.

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,7)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

10,4%

43,8%

20,8%

18, 8%

6,3%

0%

5

21

10

9

3

0

117


118

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,4; total: 47)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4,3; total: 47)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

0%

19,1%

27,7%

46,8%

6,4%

0%

2,1%

19,1%

34%

40,4%

4,3%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,9)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

0%

33,3%

56,3%

4,2%

0%

6,3%

0

16

27

2

0

4

0

0

9

13

22

3

0

1

9

16

19

2


Area 3: Transport, logistics

Statements

E3.1 The need for transportation of material and people is significantly decreased

by the use of IT (like traffic demand management systems).

E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport systems are widely used (automobiles, ships, etc.)

E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.

E3.4 Common distribution systems across urban areas that reduce the urban traffic

needs stemming from an increased volume of small-package deliveries due to

the proliferation of e-commerce.

E3.5 Car sharing and other forms of joint use of cars are widely used in large cities.

E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is replaced by public transportation,

walking and cycling, that are made attractive e.g. by new innovations in

information, comfort, traffic safety etc.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

E3.1 The need for transportation of material

and people is significantly decreased

by the use of IT (like...

E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport

systems are widely used

(automobiles, ships, etc.)

E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.

E3.4 Common distribution systems across

urban areas that reduce the urban traffic

needs stemming from...

E3.5 Car sharing and other forms of joint use of cars

are widely used in large cities.

E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is

replaced by public transportation, walking and...

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

119


120

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 47 (avg: 2,5)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

Number of question respondents: 46

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4; total: 46)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 46)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

4,3%

28,3%

34,8%

28,3%

4,3%

2,2%

4,3%

39,1%

28,3%

23,9%

2,2%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,3)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

25,54%

27,7%

27,7%

14, 9%

2,1%

2,1%

0%

21,7%

47,8%

17,4%

4,3%

8,7%

12

13

13

0

10

22

8

2

4

9

1

1

0

2

13

16

13

2

1

2

18

13

11

1


Area 4: Material efficiency

Statements

E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic elements based on biotechnology.

E4.2 Methodology for tracing and identifying materials suitable for recycling

(plastics and metals).

E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers buy services or lease or lend

durables instead of purchasing material products.

E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering companies (ESCO and

MASCO) are commonly used in developing energy and material efficiency in industries,

other business and public entities.

E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly based on reuse systems.

E4.6 All products include informative description covering information about

production, material balances and emissions levels.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic

elements based on biotechnology.

E4.2 Methodology for tracing and identifying materials

suitable for recycling (plastics and metals).

E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers

buy services or lease or lend durables instead of...

E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering

companies (ESCO and MASCO)

are commonly used in...

E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly

based on reuse systems.

E4.6 All products include informative description

covering information about production, material...

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

121


122

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 2,6)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

Number of question respondents: 44

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 44)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4,1;

total: 43)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

2,3%

25%

38,6%

27,3%

6,8%

0 %

2,3%

30,2%

27,9%

34,9%

4,7%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 3,1)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

21,7%

28,3%

30,4%

10, 9%

4,3%

4,3%

0%

22,2%

66,7%

2,2%

0%

8,9%

10

13

14

0

10

30

1

0

4

5

2

2

0

1

11

17

12

3

0

1

13

12

15

2


Area 5: Food production

Statements

E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large extent based on eco efficient

processes like fermentation and drying by solar energy.

E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and this reduces significantly environmental

impacts like green house gas emissions.

E5.3 Majority of the food consumption is produced locally (near-production)

and energy and material efficiency in the production and logistic chain is reduced.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large

extent based on eco efficient processes like

fermentation and drying by solar energy.

E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and

this reduces significantly environmental impacts

like green house gas emissions.

E5.3 Majority of the food consumption is produced

locally (near-production) and energy and material

efficiency in the production and logistic chain is

reduced.

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 1,8)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

58,7%

23,9%

8,7%

2,2%

0%

6 ,5%

27

11

4

1

0

3

123


124

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

Number of question respondents: 45

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,4; total: 45)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

17,8%

28,9%

22,2%

20%

11,1%

2,2 %

28,9%

17,8%

33,3%

8,9%

8,9%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,4)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

0%

23,9%

37%

23,9%

4,3%

10,9%

0

18

13

10

9

5

1

1

8

15

0

4

4

11

17

11

2

5


Area 6: Energy production

Statements

E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.

E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar heat, thermochemical

method using nuclear heat or other environmentally viable technology.

E6.3 Fuel cells for medium- and large-scale electricity generation.

E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric power generation in areas

that have electricity distribution network.

E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle feed or compost by efficient

small scale plants (micro cogeneration in households etc.) that use local

biomaterial like household and garden waste, weeds etc.

E6.6 Formation of international consensus on the CO2 storage in oil and gas

fields and brine-filled formations.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).

The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points

quartiles.

E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.

E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar

heat, thermochemical method using nuclear heat or...

E6.3 Fuel cells for medium- and large-scale

electricity generation.

E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric

power generation in areas that have electricity...

E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle

feed or compost by efficient small scale plants...

E6.6 Formation of international consensus on the CO 2

storage in oil and gas fields and brine-filled...

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

125


126

What is the level of your expertise in this area?

Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,8)

Everyday knowlegde (information

from newspapers etc.)

Good knowledge in some of the

questions in this area

Good knowledge in most the

questions in this area

Expert of active agent in some of

the questions in this area

Expert of active agent in most the

questions in this area

Do not know

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and

opportunities...

Number of question respondents: 47

related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,6; total: 47)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses

within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4,5; total: 46)

None

Small

Moderate

Somewhat large

Large

Do not know

0%

0%

10,6%

34%

51,1%

4,3%

0%

0%

13%

32,6%

50%

4 ,3%

What is the level of competence, including research and development, in

Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is

Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,7)

Leading

Among the top

Average

Somewhat behind

Behind

Do not know

25%

18,8%

25%

16,7%

12,5%

2 ,1%

0%

54,2%

31,3%

8,3%

0%

6,3%

0

0

5

16

24

2

0

0

6

15

23

0

26

15

4

0

3

12

9

12

8

6

1

3


Society based on energy and material efficiency

– Other innovations and observations

What are the most important measures that should be taken by the

government towards technological realization and social application (if any)?

You may choose multiple policy measures.

Number of question respondents 49 (avg: 5,6)

Human resources development and

education

Strengthened industry-academicgovernment

and interdisciplinary

collaboration

Technology transfer from other countries

Development of R&D infrastructure

Expansion of R&D funding for public

research organization and companies

Internationalization of R&D activitities

Relaxation or elimination of relevant

regulations

Tightened or new regulations

Improvement of environment for

business startups

Support through taxation, subsidies, and

procurement

Other

44,9% 22

40,8% 20

18,4% 9

36,7% 18

42,9% 21

26,5% 13

2% 1

42,9% 21

34,7% 17

49% 24

4,1%

2

127


Tekes Reviews in English

227/2008 Social challenges as the basis for foresight – Cooperative project between

NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland). Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan (Eds.)

127 p.

224/2008 Nanosafety in Finland – a summary report. Tuomas Raivio, Piia Pessala,

Mari Hjelt, Pirita Mikkanen, Hanna Kahelin. 17 p.

219/2007 VICTA – Virtual ICT Accelerator. Final Report. 25 p.

214/2007 Universities, industrial innovation and regional economic development.

A report of local innovation systems. Editors: Richard K. Lester and

Markku Sotarauta. 231 p.

213/2007 Trends and Opportunities in Packaging R&D in the US. Niels Hauffe,

NWV Market Discovery, Inc. 54 p.

212/2007 Consumer Packaging in Poland, Czech Republic and in Moscow Area. 50 p.

207/2007 MASI Technology Programme 2005–2009. Yearbook 2007. Eija Alakangas &

Pekka Taskinen (eds.)

206/2007 Update of GIGA-VAMOS – Technology Roadmap. Mikael von Hertzen,

Juhani Timonen, Pekka Huuhka. 93 p.

205/2007 Seizing the White Space: Innovative Service Concepts in the United States.

Peer Insight. 76 p.

202/2007 Five Steps for Finland’s Future. Pirjo Ståhle (ed.). 42 p.

200/2007 Innovation, Journalism and Future. Erkki Kauhanen and Elina Noppari. 88 p.

196/2006 E-Business Logistics Visions, Innovations and Research. ELO – E-Business

Logistics Technology Programme 2002–2005. Heikki Kekäläinen (editor). 91 p.

191/2006 MASI Technology Programme 2005–2009. Yearbook 2006. Eija Alakangas &

Pekka Taskinen (eds)

184/2005 Globalisation of R&D. Part 1. R&D in a Global World. Part 2. R&D in a Global

Economy. 126 p.

182/2005 Research training and national innovation systems – Finland compared to

Australia and the USA. Sandra Haukka. 154 p.

179/2005 Pharma development in Finland today and 2015. Updated version of

163/2004. 78 p.

177/2005 Best Practices in Innovation Policies. Heikki Kotilainen. 93 p.

176/2005 Finnish entrepreneurial activity in regional, national and global context.

Arenius Pia (Editor), Erkko Autio, Anne Kovalainen. 60 p.

172/2005 Business Cycle Effects on Start-Up Finance in Finland. 47 p.

Subscriptions: www.tekes.fi/english/publications


April 2008

Social challenges as the basis for foresight

Cooperative project between NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)

Tekes Review 227/2008

Further information

Eija Ahola

eija.ahola@tekes.fi

The Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation

Kyllikinportti 2, P.O. Box 69, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland

Tel. +358 1060 55000, Fax +358 9 694 9196, E-mail: tekes@tekes.fi

www.tekes.fi

ISSN 1239-758X

ISBN 978-952-457-404-4

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