227/08 Social challanges s the basis for foresight - Gaia

Social challenges as
the basis for foresight
Cooperative project between
NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)
Tekes Review
227/2008

Social challenges as
the basis for foresight
Cooperative project between
NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)
Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan (Eds.)
Themes
Media and ICT in everyday life
Marko Turpeinen, HIIT/KTH
Health in aging society
Raimo Sepponen, TKK
Towards energy and material efficient society
Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva
Tekes Review 227/2008
Helsinki 2008

Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation
Tekes is the main public funding organisation for research and development
(R&D) in Finland. Tekes funds industrial projects as well as projects
in research organisations, and especially promotes innovative, risk-intensive
projects. Tekes offers partners from abroad a gateway to the key
technology players in Finland.
Tekes programmes – Tekes´ choices for the greatest impact of
R&D funding
Tekes uses programmes to allocate its financing, networking and expert
services to areas that are important for business and society.
Programmes are launched in areas of application and technology that
are in line with the focus areas in Tekes’ strategy. Tekes allocates about
half the financing granted to companies, universities and research institutes
through the programmes. Tekes programmes have been contributing
to changes in the Finnish innovation environment for twenty years.
Copyright Tekes 2008. All rights reserved.
This publication includes materials protected under copyright law, the
copyright for which is held by Tekes or a third party. The materials
appearing in publications may not be used for commercial purposes. The
contents of publications are the opinion of the writers and do not represent
the official position of Tekes. Tekes bears no responsibility for any possible
damages arising from their use. The original source must be mentioned
when quoting from the materials.
ISSN 1239-758X
ISBN 978-952-457-404-4
Cover picture: Digital Archive Japan Inc.
Cover: Oddball Graphics Oy
Page layout: DTPage Oy

Foreword
The Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project was a joint pilot project between the
Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation (Tekes) and the Japanese
National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (Nistep). The processes
in each country were similar although conducted separately. This report
presents the Finnish foresight process and results.
The previously selected societal challenges formed the starting point of the project.
The main objective of the Finnish foresight process was to identify development
and innovation needs and potentials related to the selected societal themes.
The search for the needs and potentials were linked to the Finnish society and to
global business opportunities.
Tekes invited 35 Finnish experts from various research and business sectors to
create a view of the future for the selected themes. The work was largely carried
out in panel-meetings. The chairmen of the panels – Jouko Kinnunen, Raimo
Sepponen and Marko Turpeinen – reported on the panel themes.
Tekes would like to thank the panel members for giving their considerable
knowledge, competence and experience to the benefit of this project. Without
your remarkable input this process would not have been possible. Our special
gratitude is expressed to the chairmen of the panels for their thorough and competent
work in reporting all ideas and findings.
Gaia Consulting acted as the process facilitator, who planned the panel meeting
techniques in detail and supported and facilitated the work, and also reported the
results of the panel meetings. Gaia’s Dr. Mikko Syrjänen and Dr. Mari Hjelt provided
excellent process management to the project.
Tekes wishes to express its sincere thanks to the process consultant team for their
very professional, profound and excellent work. Their work linked and combined
the knowledge and expertise of individual panel members to build a common
vision for future. The entire process and the methods used were both inspiring
and creative.
The results of this foresight project have already been used in Tekes’s own strategic
focus area work. This report will make them available to other organisations.
Although there are still some challenges left for the future, such as comparing the
Japanese and Finnish results, this project has been an exciting and evolving experience.
Thank you all for your valuable contribution!
Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation

Table of contents
Foreword
1 Background and goals. ...................................1
2 Process and methods ....................................3
2.1 Overview of work process and methods ....................3
2.2 Panel process .......................................6
2.3 Mini-Delphi survey. ...................................8
2.4 Methodological reflections ..............................8
3 Media and ICT in everyday life. ............................10
3.1 Introduction .......................................10
3.2 Scenarios for 2030 ..................................13
3.3 Vision for 2020 .....................................18
3.4 Roadmap .........................................22
3.5 Conclusions and recommendations ......................29
4 Health in aging society ..................................32
4.1 Introduction .......................................32
4.2 Scenarios for 2030 ..................................40
4.3 Vision for 2030 .....................................45
4.4 Roadmap .........................................47
4.5 Conclusions .......................................49
5 Towards energy and material efficient society .................51
5.1 Introduction .......................................51
5.2 The foreseen changes in the operational environment .........52
5.3 Setting of a vision and strategic goals and identification of
the actions needed to achieve the goals ...................55
5.4 Roadmap to society based on energy and material efficiency. ...62
5.5 Conclusions and recommendations ......................64
6 Delphi survey ..........................................67
6.1 Survey themes and respondents ........................67
6.2 Media and ICT .....................................68
6.3 Health ...........................................73
6.4 Energy and material efficiency ..........................77
6.5 Comparison of the themes. ............................82
7 Cross-thematic innovation potential ........................83
7.1 Background and structure .............................83
7.2 Cross-thematic challenges and issues ....................83
7.3 Identified innovation potential. ..........................86
Appendix A Full Delphi survey results. ..........................89
Tekes Reviews in English ..................................128

1 Background and goals
Eija Ahola, Tekes
In spring 2007 Tekes (The Finnish Funding
Agency for Technology and Innovation) and
NISTEP (the National Institute of Science and
Technology Policy of Japan) decided to undertake
a joint foresight pilot project.
The project had several goals. NISTEP wanted to
develop and pilot new methodologies for their
next national technology foresight survey. International
cooperation in foresight was important
for both parties. Tekes wanted to deepen and
widen foresight for some themes already identified
in its own strategic focus area process and
this project provided a good platform.
The formulation of Tekes strategy focus areas has
developed to a common foresight process. Participants
include stakeholders such as Finnish companies,
research institutes and public organisations
that together create a view of the strategic choices
for Finland. Tekes is also cooperating in foresight
issues with other Finnish innovation policy actors.
As an example, Tekes and the Academy of Finland
conducted a joint foresight project – FinnSight
2015. Networking both multi- and cross-disciplines
and using panel-type discussions are essential features
of Tekes’s overall approach to foresight.
NISTEP has a long tradition in technology foresight.
They conducted their 8 th technology foresight
survey in 2003–2004, and are now planning
the 9 th . NISTEP has actively developed the foresight
process and methods used. On the 8 th round
they widened their scope from technology to also
include socio-economic analysis. NISTEP also
conduct research and analysis on trends in science
and technology. The science and technology
perspective and Delphi-surveys form essential
parts of NISTEP’s approach to foresight.
The process was initiated jointly by Tekes and
Nistep and implemented independently in Finland
and Japan. The work process was based on similar
principles and methodology in both countries but
practical implementation in details varied – and
methods were also developed during the project.
The common challenge was to create the process
that is based on identified societal challenges and
creates a concrete road-map for the future. Another
challenge was to combine two basically different
approaches used in the foresight process:
Delphi survey and panel-based foresight.
The selected societal challenges formed the starting
point of the project. The selected themes varied
somewhat between Finland and Japan. The
differences in the theme descriptions reflect differences
in the Japanese and Finnish societies,
social systems and business organisations.
The Finnish themes were based in questions related
to
changing media and ICT in everyday life
health and wellbeing in aging society
society based on energy and material
efficiency.
The main purpose of the process was to identify
development and innovation needs and potentials
related to the selected societal themes. Essential
part of the process was also to look for innovation
potential across and between the selected themes.
The needs and potentials were linked to both
Finnish society and global business opportunities.
At the same time as the Tekes-Japan foresight
project, an ongoing strategy process in
Tekes aimed to identify future priority areas of its
operations. The results of the foresight project
support the selection of focus areas at Tekes. The
1

Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project also contributes
to the development of foresight practices and
co-operation between Tekes and other organizations.
Tekes invited the chairmen and 10–15 panel
members for each panel to participate in the
work. Each panel included researchers as well as
business people with visions for future and wide
perspective of their own sectors and society. Gaia
Consulting Ltd served as the process consultant
for the project in Finland. Details of the pilot project
were planned and discussed in advance and
throughout the process together with the process
consultants, Tekes and the chairmen. Gaia Consulting
Ltd acted as a process facilitator, who
planned the panel meeting techniques in detail
and supported and facilitated the work.
2
From Tekes perspective this project included several
challenges leading to an experimental and
creative foresight process. Societal future challenges
as the starting point is new at Tekes. Combining
Delphi survey to panel and workshop
based foresight process was also a new initiative.
International, simultaneously and independently
conducted collaborative foresight was a new way
to try to get some comparative results and deeper
understanding of foresight results. This process
will still continue. Methods developed for the
process to facilitate discussion in panel meetings
were creative and productive, and supported both
future and strategic thinking and reporting of results.
These features of the process provided a
good learning platform of foresight methodologies
for all participants.

2 Process and methods
Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan,
Gaia Consulting Ltd
2.1 Overview of work process
and methods
This Chapter introduces the overall work process
of the Tekes-Japan foresight project and the
methods used. The structure of the report is as follows.
The work methods used are examined below
both from the point of view of theory and
practical implementation. Chapter 2.2 presents
the panel process and aims and accomplishments
of each panel meeting. As a part of the foresight
project, a Delphi type survey was conducted.
This is briefly presented in Chapter 2.3. As a conclusion
of the overall process, chapter 2.4 reflects
the methodologies used and assesses the pilot
project.
The work was based on a number of foresight
methods. These methods are presented in this
Input from
scenarion work
at Tekes
Societal needs,
challenges and goals
Scenario
work
Vision
Road-map
work
chapter first from a theoretical point of view and
then explained how each method was implemented
in the Tekes-Japan foresight 2007 project.
The main methods were expert panels and
Delphi type survey. In addition, the expert panels
were supported by scenario methods, roadmap
work and various facilitation methods. The work
methods and their links to the overall process are
presented in figure 2.1.
Expert panels
The expert panel method is the most frequently
used foresight method in to elicit expert knowledge.
The panels are typically groups of 12-20 individuals
who are given 3-18 months to deliberate
upon the future of a given topic. Expert panels
are based on in-depth and meaningful interaction
and networking between different scientific dis-
Innovations
meeting
the needs
and challenges
Delphi
survey
Prioritised strategic goals and identified
policies and other actions needed for
achieving the vision and objectives
Figure 2.1. Overview of the process
Japanese Delphi
as a starting
point
Technological
and other solutions
and their timing
3

ciplines and areas of expertise. The panel method
complements other methods used in foresight. 1
Expert panels in the foresight project were divided
into three themes:
Healthcare and wellbeing
Energy and material efficiency and
Consumers and media.
Each theme consisted of working groups consisting
of 10-15 experts. The panels were a focal
point of the process. Panel members collected
and analyzed information utilizing various methods
to produce recommendations for Tekes. The
aim of the expert panels was to identify societal
challenges as well as knowledge and innovation
needs and possibilities related to them. The process
was supported and facilitated by a process
consult.
Scenario work
The scenario method is one of the main concepts
and most widely used methods in foresight. In
foresight language a scenario usually refers to
different “stories” illustrating various aspects of
possible futures. Hence scenarios are not predictions
about the (most probable) future or the most
preferred future. To be effective, a scenario must
be plausible, consistent and offer insights into the
future. Plausibility in this context means that the
scenario might conceivably happen. The logics in
a scenario must be internally consistent and the
scenario should also provide relevant insights for
decisions. Scenarios help in anticipating the context
in which the decision makers have to act in
the future. 2
4
In the Finnish process the scenarios were used as
descriptions of the future world and environment
where decision will be made 3 . Each panel developed
2-3 scenarios at the beginning of the process
and these served as a basis for identifying future
possibilities, needs and challenges.
The basis for the scenario work in the Tekes-Japan
foresight project was the scenario work
previously carried out by Tekes as a part of their
strategy work. These helped in identifying the
basic trends and drivers, and the panelists were
asked to identify significant events and trends
from the point of view of their own theme before
and during the first panel meeting. The
theme specific scenarios were built to the year
2030, except in energy and material efficiency
panel, which choose the perspective period of
2050.
Technology road-maps and
backcasting
Roadmaps include visions and projections of future
possible technological developments, products
or environments. They map political or
socio-economic goals back to the present S&T
policies through various technological paths.
Usually, roadmapping is a normative tool, i.e. the
desired future state is pre-determined. It includes
graphical representations in which “nodes”
(states of the art in S&T development) are connected
by “links” (causal or temporal relations)
showing the nature, rate and direction of potential
S&T developments. 4
1 http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_expert-panel.htm
2 http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_scenario.htm
3 Note that Nistep uses the concept scenario to refer to the desired future path that the technological development
supports. Thus the Nistep scenario is closer to the vision as defined in the Finnish process.
4 http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_roadmapping.htm

In the Tekes-Japan foresight project roadmapping
covered also societal development (organizations,
legislation, standards etc.) and innovations
from a large perspective, not referring only to
technology. Thus, the roadmap method used here
was of a combination of technology roadmaps
and backcasting. 5
The basis for the roadmaps was a vision/goal
statement, which was set to each theme for the
year 2030/2050. The innovation roadmap outlined
needed actions and technology steps to
achieve the vision/goal statement from the present
situation to 2030/2050.
Delphi method
Delphi method is an expert survey, which is implemented
in two or more ‘rounds’ in which, in
the later rounds of the survey the results of the
previous round are given as feedback. Delphi surveys
are not intended to produce statistical results
that would correspond to the view a wider public.
The outcomes rather represent the view of a particular
group of experts. The Delphi method is not
used to create consensus but to test if there is already
consensus about the future developments.
It reduces tacit and complex knowledge to a single
statement that the respondents judge. In the
most common form, the opinions sought concern
particular developments and their probability,
timing or significance. 6
In the Tekes-Japan foresight project the aim of the
mini-Delphi survey was to produce a timeline of
possible solutions created by technology and other
innovations. The earlier Japanese Delphi studies
were used as a starting point in formulating the
statements 7 and they were finalized with the help
from the panel members. The main part of the sur-
vey consisted of statements including technological
or other solutions and its social application or
impact. For each statement, respondents were requested
to express their opinion on the timing of
both the technical realization and social application
of the solutions. In addition to the timing of individual
statements, more general questions were
asked concerning the respondents’ expertise, the
relevance of the areas covered in the survey to Finland
as well as the need for public policy measures
in promoting the solutions and their application.
Due to a tight schedule there was only one round of
the Delphi survey. The mini Delphi survey provided
supporting information to the process. Results
of the Delphi-survey were reported to the
panel members during the work process.
Distribution of work and organization
Each theme had four panel meetings (workshops).
The facilitator of each theme prepared the
background material and Delphi-survey. The facilitators
also led the discussions and took notes
from each panel meeting. All practical issues
were prepared in cooperation between Tekes and
Gaia Consulting Ltd.
The chairmen of the panels were responsible for
the context of the panels but before each panel
meeting the facilitator and chairman went
through the structure of each panel meeting. The
chairmen had also the main reporting responsibility
for the panel reports.
A project steering group led by Tekes was responsible
for the implementation of the process. The
steering group kept contact to Japan and internally
with strategy process of Tekes. Tekes and
Nistep shared material, results and experiences
during the process.
5 Backcasting is a method to develop normative scenarios and explore their feasibility and implications. It can be
characterised as a social learning process and the long term perspective makes it possible to let go of the present way
of meeting certain specific social needs. More information: http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_backcasting.htm
6 http://forlearn.jrc.es/guide/3_scoping/meth_delphi.htm
7 The statements were as such: ”Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special glasses and
feeling fatigue in homes” and “Passive solar energy is used largely in housing”.
5

2.2 Panel process
The panel process was implemented in four separate
panel meetings 8 , which were arranged in autumn
2007. Three of the meetings had a duration
four hours and one panel meeting was an all-day
meeting, which lasted seven hours. The themes of
the panel meetings are listed below. The role of
the panel meeting in the overall process is illustrated
in Figure 2.2.
Panel meeting 1: Process kick-off, identification
of trends and drivers and creating views of
possible futures (September)
Panel meeting 2: Identification of needs, challenges,
possibilities and strategic options on
the basis of possible futures (October)
Panel meeting 3: Setting the vision and strategic
goals, and identifying the actions needed
for achieving the goals. (November).
Panel meeting 4: Specifying the actions and
the roadmap (December)
6
Panel work
Each panel meeting was complemented by background
material and panel members were given
assignments between the panel meetings. The
first panel meeting included a joint kick-off with
all three panels and this was followed by specific
sessions for each panel separately.
Panel meeting 1: Process kick-off,
identification of trends and drivers and
creating views of possible futures
In the first panel meeting, the preliminary theme
of the panel was presented by Tekes, and the
theme was discussed and refined by the panel
members. Additionally, an overall description of
the process and general background trends and
scenarios were presented. Panel members were
asked to identify major drivers and trends related
to their panel theme before the first meeting.
These were discussed and complemented during
the meeting. The main task of the meeting was to
identify key trends and draft interesting scenarios
Input from
scenarion work
at Tekes
Innovations
Meeting 1: Kick-off and thematic
meeting
scenarios Japanese
the needs
Delphi as a
Scenario and challenges
starting point
work
Meeting 2: Challenges, needs and strategic options
Delphi
Technological
Societal needs,
survey
and other
challenges and
solutions and
goals
their timing
Meeting 3: Vision, strategic Vision goals and essential milestones
Road-map
Meeting 4: Completing the innovation
work
road-map and suggestions for action plan
Prioritised strategic goals and identified
policies and other actions needed for
achieving the vision and objectives
Figure 2.2. Panel meetings as a part of the process
8 Note: In the Finnish process the word ‘workshop’ was used as synonym for the panel meetings.
This use or terminology differs slightly from the Japanese process.
05-2007 dm # 293 628

for the theme. Panel members also specified the
target year for the foresight process according to
what was a relevant perspective period from the
point of view of the theme.
Panel meeting 2: Identification of needs,
challenges, possibilities and strategic
options on the basis of possible futures
The preliminary scenarios drafted in the first panel
meeting were the main focus point for the second
panel meeting. The pre-meeting assignments covered
each produced scenario. Panel members were
asked to describe how the everyday life of an example
family “Suominen” would look in each scenario
and what new needs, challenges and opportunities
each scenarios bring. Panel members were
also asked to identify what technologies or innovations
could be needed or utilized in meeting the
needs, challenges or opportunities.
Each scenario was discussed in the panel meeting
and developed further. Some preliminary scenarios
were excluded at this point as a result of group
discussion. Panel members were asked to identify
needs, opportunities and challenges and to
group them for each scenario. These were presented
to the other groups. Finally, the panel
members generated ideas for possible strategic
options for Finland. These ideas were not drafted
per scenario but panel members had rather an opportunity
to identify freely Finland’s possibilities
by the target year chosen.
Panel meeting 3: Setting the vision and
strategic goals, and identifying the
actions needed for achieving the goals
Notes from the previous panel meeting and preliminary
results from the mini-delphi –survey
were the background material for the third panel
meeting. Panel members were assigned in advance
with a task to write down a vision/goal
statement for Finland for the year 2030/2050 and
to identify major solutions or changes needed to
be introduced and implemented in order to
achieve this goal. Panel members were also assigned
to identify the level of knowledge and
skills related to the theme in Finland as well as areas
in which Finland is doing well and areas in
which Finland is dragging behind. Chairmen held
a presentation of their theme and summarized the
results the process had achieved so far. The presentation
was followed by a joint discussion of
possible issues that have been missed in the discussions
so far.
The first task for the whole day panel meeting
was to formulate a 1-2 sentence vision/goal statement
for the panel. The second task was to analyze
the present state through historical events.
Panel members were requested to mark on
timelines personal issues, societal events and
events relevant to the theme. The third main task
was to identify major solution areas and themes
to achieve the vision/goal statement. These were
selected as a focus point for draft roadmap analysis,
which were produced in groups.
Panel meeting 4: Specifying the actions
and the roadmap
Notes from the previous panel meeting and results
from the mini-delphi survey were background
material for the fourth and final meeting.
Pre-meeting assignments involved identifying
areas missing from the draft roadmaps and common
themes in the roadmaps. The themes were
discussed in the meeting jointly and they were
complemented where necessary.
The main focus area of the panel meeting was to
develop the roadmaps further and to identify actions
that are necessary for completing the goals.
Panel members were first divided into groups that
added missing issues and formulated a specific
goal/target for each roadmap concerned. Panel
members were also asked to identify critical decisions
or events that lead to or can prevent achieving
the goal. The completed roadmaps were
cross-checked with other panel members who had
an opportunity to comment and suggest missing
decisions or events for each roadmap. Additionally
panel members identified areas of actions
that were common for the roadmaps. In the end
7

discussions panel members were able to give feedback
for the whole foresight process and give suggestions
and pinpoint focal areas for the panel
chairman for reporting.
Cross-thematic workshop
During the panel process it was recognized that
the thematic panels worked with several closely
linked issues. After completing the panel workshops,
the chairmen of the panels met and decided
that an additional workshop for examining
cross-cutting issues would be a useful addition to
the process. A half day workshop with the panel
chairmen and Tekes representatives was thus organized.
Cross-cutting issues are presented separately
in Chapter 7.
2.3 Mini-Delphi survey
The latest Japanese Delphi survey 9 served as a
starting point in developing a suitable survey for
the Finnish foresight process. The statements of
the Japanese Delphi served as a starting point and
potentially interesting statements were selected
from the thematically broad survey by the facilitator
and the thematic experts at Tekes. This initial
list was analysed, less interesting statements were
dropped and additional statements were added.
The draft list of statements was sent for comments
to the panel members after which the facilitator
and Tekes experts finalized the survey.
The survey was implemented in only one round.
This differs from normal Delphi method in which
the results of the previous round are given as
feedback. The survey was implemented as a web
survey. The survey request was sent to the panel
members and to the email mailing lists of selected
Tekes technology programmes. In total 130 persons
responded. Each thematic area had 33-39
statements and in addition some general questions.
The respondents answered the statements
of only one of the thematic areas although they
also had the option to answer the others.
9 http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/ftx/eng/rep097e/idx097e.html
8
The results of the Delphi survey are presented in
Chapter 6.
2.4 Methodological reflections
The Tekes Japan foresight process also served as
a foresight method test bed. It combined the panel
approach with Delphi type survey, which has not
been a common practice in foresight.
The project can be overall regarded as successful.
For many panel members, the process was a valuable
learning experience and the process created
mutual understanding among panel members.
For the chairmen responsible for the reporting,
the views of the panel members and all panel
meetings produced a lot of written material. Additionally,
at the end of the process chairmen
themselves wanted to have an additional meeting
for cross-thematic discussions.
The expert panel work received especially additional
value by being facilitated by an independent
facilitator, which differs from the handbook
panel work method. The methodology and work
methods used proved to be successful in producing
new ideas. However tight schedule created
challenges for this as most of the time had to be
used for communicating existing knowledge.
When considering aspects to develop similar
types of projects, one aspect is the background
knowledge of the panel members. The Tekes Japan
process did not include a literature review
part and hence the process relied heavily on the
information and expertise each panelist brought
into the process. If more time and resources
would have been allocated to produce background
information, this could have been brought
to the panel meetings as background material. A
literature review in the beginning and a stronger
contextual support throughout the process could
ensure that no relevant aspects are ignored.

Another important area is the support for commitment
and the group dynamics. This requires
first of all that there is adequate number of people
in each panel to secure sufficient participation (at
least 7–8 people) in each meeting. The initial
group that is invited should hence be even up to
15 people, depending on the level of commitment.
Concerning the commitment, enough time
should be allocated to the first panel meeting in
order to allow panel members to become better
acquainted with each other and to commit them to
the process.
In the Finnish process the utilization of the
mini-Delphi survey turned out to be challenging.
In Japan, there is a consistent tradition of
Delphi-surveys, but the Finnish survey was not
sufficiently integrated into the process. The panel
members should have had a more active role in
formulating the Delphi statements and the areas
in the Delphi survey should have been selected
only when the main solutions for each theme had
been identified in panel meeting 3. In this way the
Delphi work would have better supported the
roadmap work.
During the foresight process a cross-comparison
between themes could be valuable. In this case
such a comparison was done between panel
chairmen only during the report writing phase.
This meeting aimed at identifying links between
the themes and recommendations. However, this
could have been a planned procedure from the beginning
so that it would have supported the work
in the panels. Hence sufficient resources should
be allocated to this kind of comparison in case the
thematic areas have linkages like in this case.
Furthermore, a comparison also between Japanese
and Finnish results could have produced
new insights. In general, more co-operation with
the Japanese would have been productive.
Finally, it is important to keep in mind that this
kind of foresight project is an individual-centered
process. The results of the process can be potentially
dominated by the chairman or individual
panel members, and this should be taken into notice
when assessing the results and utilizing them.
Particularly, this is a challenge when the results are
intended to be used in the actual strategic policy
making to decide on R&D funding allocation. Far
reaching and important decisions cannot be based
on the opinions of few individuals given in the
context where the participants themselves perhaps
do not realize the intended use of the results. On
the other hand, the surprise elements and capability
of the foresight process to create new ideas suffer
if the process is focused only on the consensus
opinions validated with a large group of individuals.
In planning the foresight one should pay attention
in using methods which enforce panel members
to participate equally so that also the more silent
ones get their voice through and which also
vary and force the participants to look at issues
from various different points of view. Last but not
least, it should be kept in mind that foresight is intended
to support the strategic decision making but
not to replace it.
9

3 Media and ICT in everyday life
Professor Marko Turpeinen
Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan
Helsinki Institute for Information Technology
Panel chairman
Marko Turpeinen,
Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan and
Helsinki Institute for Information Technology
Panel members
Timo Argillander, Digital Media Finland Oy
Kari Hjelt, Nokia Research Center
Helene Juhola, The Federation of
the Finnish Media Industry
Oskar Korkman, Vectia Foresight
Göte Nyman, University of Helsinki
Petteri Repo, Nordic Consumer Research Centre
Risto Setälä, Tekes
Pirjo Tiainen, MTV MEDIA
Janne Viemerö, Tekes
3.1 Introduction
Media takes an ever-growing share of our everyday
life. The media landscape is also rapidly
changing, mainly due to technical innovations
and to the accelerating adoption of new technology
by the consumer market. The latest examples
are the vast expansion of Internet-based media
and mobile technologies over the past 20 years.
In parallel, the media industry has grown in volume
and importance in the global economy. As
new media technologies are created, they challenge
and change the traditional mass media industries,
which need to adapt their strategies to
retain and extend their markets. Also, the use of
media communication in industries and activities
that lie outside the media industry proper is rapidly
expanding. Finally, the public sector is making
tremendous investments in applying modern
media technology to effectively provide mediated
services to citizens.
The title of this work refers to convergence,
which is frequently used to denote the ongoing
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restructuring of media industry as well as to describe
the developments in media forms, distribution,
and consumption. The original “media convergence”
term from mid-1980s by Nicholas
Negroponte predicted that broadcasting, print
and computer industry would converge into a
much larger media industry. In the 1990s, this
transformed into convergence between media,
telecommunications, and computer industries.
On the other hand, we have seen technological
variability explode, and the amount of media offerings
increase rapidly. In many ways the consumer
is facing a diverging landscape of media
content, distribution channels and digital devices
to choose from, and the rate of this change is accelerating.
Our task in this foresight work was to first formulate
future scenarios of media use, primarily in
Finland. Based on these scenarios we defined a
vision for Finland’s media and communication
sector, and sketched roadmaps to complete that
vision. We decided to approach our work through
two different timeframes: year 2030 in defining
future scenarios, and 2020 in specifying Finland’s
vision and roadmaps.
It is therefore a humbling task to consider the scenarios
for the next 20 years of consumer media
use, as it is likely that new changes of scale similar
to the breakthroughs of the Internet and mobile
communications have already started, but
they are not yet identifiable. Equally, it is likely
that new developments totally unforeseen today
will emerge.
To put the task of our group work in context, we
did an exercise placing different media and communication
uses and technologies of the past 30
years on a timeline. The result (Figure 3.1) shows
that there has been a tremendous leap in technology
and change in media use during this time in

Figure 3.1. Timeline of evolution of media use and related technology
Finland. Sector barriers have broken down, and
we have moved from a monoculture to a very diverse
cultural basis supported by media industry
that is growing rapidly in complexity. The overall
wealth in Finnish society has grown and people
have invested in media, communication and new
technology.
In everyday consumption, the biggest change has
been the willingness of consumers to invest in
telecommunication services, whereas traditional
media products have shown more modest growth.
Finland has become a country of 5 million people
with more than 6 million active mobile phone accounts.
Internet access has become quite ubiquitous
in Finland with drastic growth in broadband
use, and willingness to invest in PC and networking
infrastructure in households.
The explosion of mobile and Internet communications
is reflected in the current industrial sectors
in Finland. ICT sector has become the flagship
of Finnish industry, led by Nokia, and supported
by a large ecosystem of local companies
forming the Nokia cluster.
Finland has also been at the forefront in exploring
new forms of mobile-enabled everyday services,
but these initiatives are yet to make a significant
breakthrough in terms of usage and business success.
On the other hand, despite having had a
leading role in Internet penetration and specific
areas such as Internet banking, Finland is not anymore
a leading developer of new everyday services
for the Internet. Paradoxically, this position
was lost during the first half of the 2000s despite
the rapid growth of Internet use. This happened
because of bloated expectations and investments
of the “millennium tech hype” were succeeded by
a nearly total innovation and development freeze
in most Finnish media and telecommunications
companies. There has also been only few successful
start-up companies, and many of them
have been sold to international owners in an early
stage of business growth.
Looking at this development through the lenses
of the traditional media industry, a different picture
emerges. In the mindset of media corporations,
the net has only recently evolved into being
one of the three large media alongside with print
and television, moving ahead of books, magazines,
radio, and games, and to be taken seriously.
Different media compete of people’s attention,
which has now started to shift towards the net.
And where people go, media advertising follows.
However, the full picture of media usage in people’s
everyday life includes all previous media,
and they are being reformed as synergies are
found between the new and the old. Growth of the
Internet does not mean the death of other media.
Looking closer at different types of media, following
observations can be made:
Print. Maybe the media that has most often
been considered (by some) to be on the brink of
extinction is the print media. Despite gloomy
predictions, print media has shown its strength
and resilience in the time of rapid digitalization.
Paper is still unrivalled as a medium for
concentrated reading. However, there are signs
in the market that the changes in media use and
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12
shifts in advertising spending are posing large
challenges to the traditional print industry.
Print executives are especially concerned
about the shrinking consumption of print products
by the younger generations. This shift is
probably most visible in the newspaper market
in US, but also many other large markets have
been in decline. This has resulted in newspaper
companies increasing their investments in
cross media products and web sites to recover
some of the lost marketshare advertising market,
and especially in classified ads. Book and
magazine publishing as not been as much affected
yet by the growth of the electronic media.
There are also wider implications of these
changing patterns of media use, as manifested
by the growing downsizing pressures in the
Finnish forest industry.
Television. Television is the other mass media
giant that has changed tremendously the everyday
life and consumption patterns of people in
the last 50 years. Finnish broadcasting industry
has gone though several major changes in the
recent years. The infrastructure has been digitalized,
consumers have changed their home
equipment to comply with digital standards,
and commercial television companies have
made significant investments in new pay-TV
channels to make a shift from advertising
based revenues to direct consumer subscriptions.
We are also witnessing a rapid expansion
of transfer of video contents on the Internet.
One driver for this growth is the desire to deliver
high quality video-on-demand over the
Internet. Equally, there has been a vast expansion
of use of short-clip-formatted video from
sites like YouTube, which has grown into the
world’s third most accessed Web site in just
two years. P2P distribution of video has expanded
from marginal activity into a phenomenon
that threatens the existing business models
of broadcast television and DVD sales. Simultaneously,
there are significant differences between
age groups in the consumption behavior.
Broadcast TV watching in Finland shows a
distinct generation gap between the people
over and under 45 years. The older people are
the more they follow the broadcast media and
their amount of TV watching minutes has been
growing in the past 10 years. The situation is
the opposite for the generations below 45
where the trend is slowly downwards. As this
behavioral gap is widening, it may be reasonable
to assume that traditional broadcast TV
watching has already peaked in Finland. Since
the largest consumer groups of current broadcasting
television are over 45-year olds, it is vital
to understand how the older consumer segments
will behave in the future
Games. Gaming branch has grown rapidly to
be one of the largest sectors of media industry.
As an example, the most popular massively-multiplayer
online game is called Word
of Warcraft (i.e. WoW), which is operated by
US-based Blizzard and owned by French media
conglomerate Vivendi. It has 10 million active
subscribers globally spending 20 hours/
week on average playing the game, and paying
approximately 12 euros/month to play the
game. This would result in 1,5 billion euros of
subscription revenue in 2008, which probably
makes WoW the most profitable media product
of our time. This rapidly growing online
gaming sector has resulted from a merger between
technically capable infrastructure, social
media use, and creative content production.
Programming and software have a key
role to play in the development of a modern entertainment
media. This means also that the
media sector has increasing need for people
who are skilled software architects, designers
and engineers. Game industry is a prime example
of this convergence.
Social media. There has been a vast “social
media gap” that new Internet uses have filled
bit by bit. The growth of the social media use is
rapidly rising, and social media services have
become the most popular forms of web media
alongside with information search. There is
also a strong overlap between social media use
and new forms of video sharing and gaming. It
can also be assumed that we have seen only the
beginning of this change as we move away
from the dichotomy of personal media and
one-to-one communications versus mass media.
There are thousands of shades of grey in
between and they interact in very complex
ways. It is no longer meaningful to talk about
the clearly defined virtual world or cyberspace
as something different and separated from the

“real world”. We are seeing many phenomena
of how these two are intertwined. There is also
a growing need for “individualistic social behavior”.
We choose the social networks and the
connections in more individualistic terms, but
the goals of the collective may be quite altruistic
and truly collective.
Many recent global societal changes have been
triggered by novel media and communication
technologies that are fueling the change towards
a network society. The network-based media industry
is global and multi-faceted as innovative
entrepreneurs are developing new types of content
and services. Traditional computer industry
companies have shifted their attention from hardware
and software applications to digital media
and mediated services, as demonstrated by global
giants such as Microsoft, Apple, SonyEricsson,
Nokia, Google and Yahoo. There is general belief
that media technology is one of the biggest global
growth drivers (similarly to software industry in
80s and 90s) within the next decades, and there
are several media technology areas of excellence
in Finland: mobile technology and applications,
digital television, paper products, social media
services, games, human-computer interaction,
knowledge in publishing industry, content management,
and semantic web.
It seems that Finland is ideally positioned strategically
in shaping these future developments because
of the existing strong foothold in the underlying
media and communications technology.
This report examines how to reach this potential
starting with future scenarios that define the
framework for discussion.
3.2 Scenarios for 2030
To better understand and analyze possible future
potential we have used the method of scenario development,
which has the goal of painting pictures
of possible futures that can further be used
as a tool for analysis and discussion.
The main dimensions for the future scenarios
were decided to be non-technical, as we assumed
that the rapid development in media and commu-
nications technology is expected as default. Technology
changes are on the roadmap and they are
crucial for future development. However, it is
hard to predict which are the core technical areas
where media technology is likely to develop
most. The dimensions under study are more reflecting
the relationship of this change to other
factors involving our everyday media use.
The two areas that were selected for the analysis
were the media behavior of people and their values
and attitudes, which were further refined into
two dimensions to characterize and differentiate
the possible future scenarios. These dimensions
were named as 1) change in everyday life, and 2)
agency in media use.
When considering media use in everyday life it is
sometimes difficult to say how much change has
actually happened, and how much of this change
has resulted due to the media. Although the
growth of the Internet and mobile technology in
past 10 years has been phenomenal, the question
is whether they have filled old needs or created totally
new behaviors.
By selecting the second dimension of agency, we
ask the question of whose role it is to provide and
package the media that people find in their everyday
use. Who is in the steering wheel: the professional
producer or the consumer? The realistic
answer is that it will be a mixture of both, but
what makes this interesting is that people’s behavior
and expectations are currently changing.
The resulting media consumption scenarios were
named as follows (Figure 3.2):
1. Better everyday media: The role of the media
and communication continues to be to assist
people in their everyday tasks. The technology
naturally evolves, but our everyday practices
remain approximately unchanged; people
work, learn, interact and entertain themselves
for the same purposes and roughly through the
same means as before. The role of media is
both to provide the agenda and pace for the
day, but also to allow people the flexibility to
choose, to experiment and to be active.
2. Web 5.0: The social media becomes the dominant
mode of media use in everyday life. This
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means also that everyday practices of people
are changing and this is both enabled by technology,
but also taking place due to different
socio-economic processes that drive this
changing media use. The agency is very much
on the side of the user of media technology.
The user is behind the driving wheel, making
selections on what, why, where and when. The
role of professional content creators, especially
journalism, is not necessarily diminishing,
but is moving towards a role of facilitator
of dialogue for various parties involved in
on-going dialogue and constantly evolving
media script.
3. Human 2.0: The role of media is to augment
humans in their daily tasks, especially in making
seamless context-specific decisions for
our benefit, choosing to filter the most relevant
pieces of information to us anytime, and by
providing new tools for more efficient learning
and knowledge creation. Media’s role is to
help us to carry our daily tasks better, and to
provide us new skills and entertainment experiences
that has not been previously possible.
People have high trust on media service producers
to provide us with the right thing at the
right time. The control is to a large degree on
the side media, consisting of both professional
media producers offering material for individualized
packaging as well as smart software
systems that make the choices on our behalf
and assist us.
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Stable
everyday life
1. Better
everyday media
Strong agency,
individual control
Weak agency,
media as
the agent
2. Web 5.0
3. Human 2.0
Figure 3.2. Three scenarios of the media future
Changing
everyday life
In the following sections we introduce and discuss
these scenarios in more detail.
Scenario 1: “Better everyday media”
The scenario is based on the idea that everyday
life changes relatively slowly, and that our everyday
routines are not so different in 2030 from today.
The home is the point where “batteries are
being reloaded” and it continues to act as the focus
point around which our lives revolve. Media
finds its role in different everyday contexts, between
which there are quite clear boundaries
(home, work, leisure time, public spaces).
There are no (or only very few) technological
changes or breakthroughs that would be so radical
that they change our everyday routines in a
significant way. There are no drastic changes in
practices and the role of media (and media technology)
as the information filter, agenda setter,
pacemaker, and packager.
On the other dimension of our analysis, i.e.
agency, this scenario balances in the middle
ground. In many ways this can also be continuation
from the current situation where we have already
moved many steps toward media use,
which is much more controlled by the consumer.
One important change is that media use becomes
more real-time, partly enabled by mobile broadband
Internet. The ubiquitous accessibility (any-

thing, anywhere media) becomes finally a reality.
Most popular uses of Internet - search engines,
messaging, social media, electronic commerce,
banking and payments, entertainment - have migrated
to mobile devices. Mobile TV is also a progression
on this trend having mainly the same
media content, but with new devices and new usage
contexts.
The richness and multitude of different family
structures will continue to grow. Despite this,
family entertainment at home is in central role
and is reflected in home electronics, building
styles and decoration. The home electronics
equipment often includes a multitude of devices
for different entertainment, and non-entertainment
purposes. For the evenings, the family gathers
in front of the latest craze: 3DTV.
One continuation along this path is that digital
and electronic media become a seamless part of
our everyday life. Media can be tailored much
better than today based on own interests and
needs. Active media use and participation in
community activities is more relevant. In many
ways this can be considered relevant to the ideas
of ubiquitous or ambient intelligence where the
goal of new technology is to make life easier but
also to disappear, to go out of the way, so that people
can go on living their lives in a more pleasant
and effective way.
However, as the technological infrastructure
grows more complex, there will be a growing need
to be able to effortlessly control the home media
environment for entertainment. The underlying
technology infrastructure will be drastically simplified
reversing the current trend of growing complexity
at home. No wonder people find this complexity
too overwhelming and demand seamless
interconnectivity and simplicity. This growth can
currently be seen, for example, by considering the
modern digital photo infrastructure consisting of
several digital cameras, mobile phones, transfer
cables, wireless connections, PC, TV, media
boxes, removable hard disks, backups, scanners,
printers, drivers, various desktop software, available
network services, etc.
Print media has also evolved to be smarter and to
better meet the everyday needs of people. There
will be new systems for producing and printing
high-quality print publications at home, or in the
neighborhood. The frequency of physical delivery
times of newspapers to homes is increased
and become more flexible, i.e. people can have
their morning paper, afternoon paper, evening paper,
or a customized family paper according to
need. There is also a significant growth in family-centric
self-published content.
New media and information technology is effortless,
seamless, not requiring plenty of attention
(such like paper is today). One of the most important
technical steps forward has been made in the
area of observing human behavior and adapting
to it. 10
Home environments will also become smarter
than they are now. They can notice who is there
and where other people are. In general, the use of
location tracking information everywhere grows.
This naturally raises plenty of privacy concerns,
but also new technical solutions for privacy management
and pseudonymous services have made
these issues less of a topic for burning discussion.
People are very concerned about security, including
both data security and physical security. This
continues to be a booming industry trying to alleviate
the risks of the vulnerabilities of our digital
and physical life situations. Unique identification
of people has been solved, and we have persistent
“ID-auras” in everyday use that are the representation
of our electronic identities.
Technology makes possible real-time communication,
coordination and control in different life
contexts and between them. ICT and media supports
better control of balance between working
tasks and own time. Email will not be as important
as it is now for everyday electronic commu-
10 We may be approaching the Starfire vision by Sun Microsystems (1993,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKJNxgZyVo0) , which had the emphasis on natural interaction,
seamless transfer of media between different devices, and ubiquitous media capture.
15

nication, as new uses of social media have made
email obsolete for most user groups.
Mass transit grows in importance and provides
flexible movement between home and leisure
time. The organisation of work is done in a
smarter way. The productivity at work grows.
People appreciate the newly available tools for
self-memory retrieval and coordination of activities.
Although there will be growing use of media
and communication services in work contexts,
there are limits on what is practical and what people
actually prefer given a choice. Bread has to be
baked in bakery - there will not be distance work
for everyone.
New everyday services include: life coordination,
home monitoring and remote control, virtual
presence. We will have more and more demand
for individual on demand digital media
space that is used for active community participation
and entertainment. One of the most important
uses for home media services and gadgets are
new uses in support of individual well-being and
health monitoring. This is especially targeted for
the aging population.
There will be novel content genre innovations,
such as reality TV was in the 2000s, which increasingly
exploit the benefits of novel interactive
and participatory channels. Media offerings
will be more diverse content-wise and easier to
discover. Knowledge representation and management
is essential fueling new forms of applications.
In any case, the diversity of media contents and
device base continues to grow.
Scenario 2: “Web 5.0”
This scenario assumes that the development that
started in with Web 2.0 will reach the whole society
in the western world and increasingly in the
developing countries. The media activity of consumers
will grow significantly, the evolving social
media practices become the dominant mode
of media use in our everyday life, and our everyday
practices are changing as a result. The agency
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of media use is primarily on the side of the user of
media technology.
Everyday life and behavior has changed in many
ways. Extreme self-service culture in Finnish society
is visible everywhere and is also partially
behind the new media uses. Media supports
self-service concepts in the society, and on the
other hand the growing field of robotics and home
automation is converging with media technology.
The traditional mass media forms of channel-driven
content packaging and delivery, and
synchronous media consumption, have been
questioned and largely abandoned by the media
consumers. This means that there is a need for
more active role on the behalf of people to coordinate
their own media use, but they are willing to
carry on these novel media chores in everyday
life. As a result people are active in choosing and
creating media content. Media is not “consumed”,
people “are in it”, “use it”, and “do it”.
Mass media era has transformed into the participative
media era, where the forms of participation
and different shared virtual environments
have evolved significantly. People participate in
individualistic communities meaning that people
choose themselves which communities they want
to be associated with. This results in pressures to
redefine the functions of national and local media
actors.
People have developed their identities in a rich
form on the net. The importance of avatars as a reflection
of ones identity grows significantly.
Electronic services and virtual spaces are a meaningful
continuation to the physical everyday life,
and digital production and participation is easy in
these network environments. Print products are
primarily used to make tangible documentation
of our everyday social lives online and offline.
People do not have the will nor energy to always
be active media users, but more control does not
mean constantly active role. People can spend
time with passive entertainment, but they make
the selections themselves. Social forms of media
use offer also possibilities to follow the activities
more passively, as a visitor or a lurker.

Asynchronous and self-selected media use has
meant that people use more media than before.
However, they want to be in control of selecting
the pace of consumption and participation. Mobile
Internet is ubiquitous, and often used for information
search, reaching and discovering media content.
The media time is spent mostly with computers
and media devices are always with the user.
An important concept that has resulted of these
changes is that we have moved towards ad-hoc life
management. Daily life as considered as a continuously
evolving and flexible process, where daily
decisions are made at the individual, group and
community level, supported by media technologies.
The traditional means of communication are
supported with interleaving digital dialogues that
last from morning to late evening. This is not considered
to be stressful. Everyday tasks of scheduling
and calendar-based life are replaced largely by
new practices, as people move to much more flexible
and place-independent meeting styles. This
also means that there will be radical re-thinking of
how people organize their time as the “daily
agenda” rolls forward. This bears resemblance
with the agrarian society as work and leisure integrate
in the daily life.
Everyday practices are becoming more mediated,
which significantly changes the use of time, consumer
behavior and public sector services. Also
environmental awareness has changed the everyday
practices, for example promoting the use of
virtual meetings instead of traveling. The workplace
has become partly virtual and this is a common
practice in most professions. Working
groups typically organize their meetings in virtual
meeting rooms.
Large part of the services is available electronically
and through virtual meetings. For example,
seeing a doctor starts always with a virtual visit,
and then, depending on the case, guidance can
happen on the net or face-to-face with a doctor.
Peer support groups have more and more importance
in everyday life of people: help, knowledge,
and expertise comes from the peer groups, which
means that the need for media experts in transferring
knowledge and expertise diminishes.
On the way to the work, people can do a quick
“daily health check” in the car, and participate in
the community challenge on who can “be the
most ecological driver of the day”. Technology
needs to be easy to use, measuring well-being
(physical and psychological) indicators and the
progress of highly personalized training programs.
Traveling and nearby nature trekking will be replaced
partly by synthetic digital experiences.
Game playing and “virtual traveling” will get significantly
closer to each other. If it is raining outside,
the father can decide to go jogging on a synthetic
but realistic track with the dog. On the other
hand, this increasing virtualization means that
real experiences will grow in perceived value.
The news presented are personalized, based on
individual’s own activity traces on the net, the importance
score of stories is always calculated individually
and but also using the social connections
as part of the algorithm to calculate the customized
score.
There is plenty of room for novel media content innovations
that take advantage of the power of collective
intelligence, peer production and open innovations.
The role of professional content creators,
especially journalism, is not necessarily diminishing,
but is moving towards a role of facilitator of dialogue
for various parties involved in on-going dialogue
and constantly evolving media script.
Scenario 3: “Human 2.0”
We become more dependent on electronic information,
but the amount of information and means
of communications that are accessible have exploded
far beyond the normal capacity and capabilities
of humans. Information overload is aggravated
significantly, and we need new solutions to
manage the constantly growing flood of information,
communication and media content. People
need significantly better everyday practices and
tools to do the prioritization. To control the individualized
information flows people trust electronic
services and media companies to make the
right choices, and to provide the best media for a
given situation.
17

The role of media and new technology is to augment
human skills in our daily tasks, especially in
making seamless context-specific decisions for
our benefit, choosing to filter the most relevant
pieces of information to us anytime, and by providing
new tools for more efficient learning and
knowledge creation. Media is used as the all-covering
personal memory and learning enhancer.
Social forms of media activity is integrated with
the other types of the flows mediated by these
augmentation services. People alternate their media
use between digital media, paper media and
virtual worlds. All of these are highly personal
and tailored for individual media use.
New forms of structured metadata and encoded
ontologies have led to novel interactive knowledge
services. Using semantics is possible in various
different contents, services, processing, and distribution.
Overall, the understanding of how to encode
and use semantics and machine understandable
representation of common sense has grown
significantly in media products and services.
There is fierce competition in the market on who
can provide the best semantic assistants for people,
which are similar to the earlier visions of automated
intelligent agents 11 but combined with
human skills of professional media producers.
People have their personal services provided by a
ubiquitous servant that is always within reach.
New forms of communications are formed as
people are in dialogue with their assistants. When
everyone has his own virtual agent, the media
content is aggregated in a personal way.
Trusted agent service seeks constantly the sources
for information and advertisements that the person
needs. There is very little unwanted information,
but the assistant can provide enough of serendipity
to keep things interesting. Following news and
topical themes is significantly easier with personalized
information filters. In the morning people
receive their semantic forecast of the day: what
are the possibilities for the individual in entertainment,
work, everyday life, based on what the person
has indicated as willing to receive.
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Semantic assistant can act as an authorized representative
in some cases when the user is not available
for dialogue. The agent is also responsible
on how the visibility of personal information
should be dealt with outsiders, trusted parties,
family, friends, including information about
when the persona is available, where he is, with
whom, calendar information, etc. This digital
identity has a central role in everyday services.
For example, health services can be profiled
better from the point of view of personal needs.
Technological development is rapid providing us
with new forms of user interfaces, end devices,
and display technologies. The emphasis is on the
ease of uses of the technology. Natural speech
and gesture interfaces are in commonplace use in
human-computer interaction.
The systems will evolve in the direction of better
use of the emotional dimension in communications,
including the social context, which is also
observed by the assistant. This means that our
communications systems become much better in
understanding and conveying emotions, insights,
and knowledge between people, resulting in the
knowledge sharing personal radar. Significant
steps have been taken in computer-assisted human-centered
communication, where meanings
and human emotions are made more visible and
directly transferable with new technical means.
3.3 Vision for 2020
Media and communication industry is growing
and converging with the ICT industry, and the
role of ICT and media in our everyday lives will
increase. Home entertainment, ubiquitous information
technology and continuous net presence
open up new opportunities for the media industry.
At the same time, media companies face tremendous
challenges to keep their traditional position.
Mass media that is targeted to assumed segments of
largely homogeneous mass audience is facing new
competition from different forms of 1) narrowcast
11 Apple Knowledge Navigator video (1987, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGYFEI6uLy0) predicts an intuitive
tabletop PC, a world with intelligent systems and personal media “agents” that serve us in our daily tasks.

media: watchers, readers, listeners are moving
into new channels and audiences are fragmenting
into segments that may become unreachable by
traditional means, and 2) prosumer media, which
is created by users and amateur producers complementing
professionally created media.
Because of these new challenges, media industry
that limits itself to a narrow view of media will
cover only a small part of the overall media industry
field. Especially, it leaves outside the “medial”
viewpoint on communication in our everyday
life: ICT-based communication services, digital
services, and information intensive work. In
all of these areas people produce, consume and
distribute “media”, which has not traditionally
been considered to be within the field of media industry.
However, this has been recognized as a
major new opportunity for the ICT industry.
The importance of multinational giants in media
content and digital services is growing, and the
production is increasingly global using digital
channels for distribution. This opens up many
questions for a small nation such as Finland. The
local media markets have been protected partially
because of the small market size, long distance
and esoteric language. Where will the media content
be created in the future? What is the role of
Finnish media companies in this new situation?
Finnish vision for 2020
To be internationally competitive, we need to be
able to make selections on where we want to develop
our competence and where it is realistic to
reach global impact. Based on our analysis we
have formulated the following vision for Finnish
media and communication sector for the year
2020.
Finland is a proactive and daring flagship
of the changing media environment for
learning, well-being and entertainment.
Figure 3.3 shows how this vision is formed. It
uses three larger drivers as a background, which
are 1) rapid development of technology, 2) media
as an enabler in societal and business practices,
and 3) changing role of users and bigger
consumer power.
Figure 3.3. Vision and goals for the Finnish converging media and
communications sector in the year 2020
19

The vision takes its basis from the current status
of technically capable Finland, with high level of
competence in key media technology areas: open
media platforms, mobile internet, and combinations
of print and electronic media. These technical
possibilities can be considered to be a solid
basis for building new user-centered media services.
The next step is to set our ambition level higher.
We need to experiment with novel service concepts
broadly, evaluate them in large-scale international
trials, and use co-development and open
innovation methods to build thriving laboratories
for service generation. This should be complemented
with clever business models that will
work locally as well as in large target markets.
It is important to note that this vision is quite technology-neutral,
and emphasizes instead three
possible breakthrough areas for media content
and services: learning, well-being and entertainment.
The choice of these three domains will be
motivated later in this text.
This main vision includes also several sub-goals
that are relevant to reach the proposed vision:
Finland has a broad base of successful media
industry including content production, media
delivery and end devices.
Finnish media sector is uniquely focused, profitable
and internationally recognized dynamic
global actor.
Finland is a model country in development and
use of human-centric and multi-cultural media
and communications services.
Finland values knowledge, and, above all, it resides
in human networks and in their embedded
social capital. Media’s role broadens from
journalistically produced content to a very
large basis of interactive – dialogue-like –
knowledge, information and entertainment.
Finnish companies are leading players in this
growing area.
Finland has provided a fruitful grounds and
possibilities for new types of services that
build on user creativity and human-centricity.
The product innovations are on demand, competitive
and contribute positively to the sustainable
global development.
20
There is a continuing need to secure the Finns
with multi-faceted and high quality media and
communication services, which will satisfy
the ever-changing needs of work and leisure
time.
Finland is internationally recognized as an innovation
centre for media and communications
domain, and leading country within EU
in the selected areas of learning, well-being
and entertainment.
Where is Finland coming behind other
countries?
Leadership internationally. According to the
Delphi survey conducted as part of this foresight
work, Finland does not currently have a leadership
position in media technology, media industry
or technologies for human communications
(Figure 3.4).
This result can be seen as slightly surprising and
might reflect the nature of the questions in the
Delphi study. It is clear that the Nokia-led mobile
communications cluster in Finland is at the top
class locally, and is building technology for human
communications. However, Nokia has only
recently made important strategic moves to becoming
more a media and service provider and
not only a mobile device manufacturer. Another
way to interpret these results is that they are reflecting
the competitive edge that Finland has in
this sector “besides Nokia”.
Business models for new services. It is obviously
important to understand what mechanisms are
driving the creation of sustainable business models
for new services. In many ways one of the reason
of the slowing down of investments in this
sector in the early 2000s was the critical attitude
towards any new development which does not
base itself from the start on some easily graspable
business logic. However, many recent media innovations
have been created without a clear business
model in mind. One lesson to learn from an
example like the phenomenal growth of Google is
that innovation may lead to global excellence,
which may lead to attractive user base, which
again may lead to the emergence of a working
business model. Sometimes the “big things” are

Area 1: Media technology for different use contexts
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to the top level in
the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 2,6)
(18.1) Leading
2,2% 1
(18.2) Among the top
53,3% 24
(18.3) Agerage
33,3% 15
(18.4) Somewhat behind
4,4% 2
(18.5) Behind
6,7% 3
(18.6) Do not know
0% 0
Area 2: Media convergence and media industry
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to the top level in
the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 2,8)
(30.1) Leading
(30.2) Among the top
(30.3) Agerage
(30.4) Somewhat behind
(30.5) Behind
(30.6) Do not know
not based on any traditional business model
(Linux, WWW, Apache, Wikipedia,). Here we
need better understanding of “open and free”, and
incentives behind these efforts. It has been shown
many times that progress and innovation can happen
without any drive for profits, or that profitable
business can emerge as a side effect after
there has been enough interest and enthusiasm to
provide a free and open infrastructure. We see
this phenomenon over and over again in open
source and open content projects, but do not fully
understand the value creation mechanisms.
2,2%
40%
42,2%
4,4%
8,9%
2,2%
Area 3: Technologies to support human communication
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in Finland relative to the top level in
the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3)
(46.1) Leading
(46.2) Among the top
(46.3) Agerage
(46.4) Somewhat behind
(46.5) Behind
(46.6) Do not know
Figure 3.4. Results of the Delphi survey on Finland’s international leadership
2,2%
26,1%
54,3%
10,9%
4,3%
2,2%
1
18
19
2
4
1
1
12
25
5
2
1
Access to capital and entrepreneurial spirit. International
marketing and sales has been traditionally
a weak point for the Finnish growth industries.
There has been significant improvements
in this area, but Finns could be still be
better in selling the ideas and commercializing
them globally. Having access to capital to fund
new promising ideas continues to be a bottleneck
in Finland. Also, people are often unwilling to
take the role of the entrepreneur, which is often
explained by cultural factors and lack of incentives
due to high taxation.
21

Comparing Finland with Japan
Japan has been the dominant actor in home electronics
and cameras. Finland has not had a strong
position as a dominant home electronics manufacturer.
However, because of the dominant role
of Nokia, it has been successful in keeping the position
of global leader in mobile telephony. The
integration of cameras into phones has also made
Nokia the world’s largest camera manufacturer in
terms of camera units sold.
Japan is at the forefront globally in developing
new ubiquitous services for everyday use. It has
shown way in such areas as mobile internet use
and mobile payment solutions. Finland has also
been at the cutting edge in experimenting new
forms of services over the year, but the systemic
approach in launching services for large-scale
use and exploiting the available platforms to
build new globally unique business has not yet
materialized in a big scale. This may change,
however, partially due to strong emphasis placed
by Nokia in novel mobile media services.
Japanese popular culture has been becoming more
and more visible globally in the recent years, especially
through manga, anime, films, and also some
distinctly Japanese computer games. Finnish culture,
on the other hand, is globally quite unknown.
One can even claim that there are no major globally
leading cultural product genres coming from
Finland at the moment, as the successes in other
digitized cultural products are relatively rare and
isolated.
Japan is the leading actor globally in traditional
computer games: it provides both the best dedicated
game devices (Sony and Nintendo), and
leads the way globally in defining the gaming
culture. The latest global success story of Wii
gaming console has made Nintendo the third
largest company in Japan after Toyota and
Mitsubishi by market capitalization. 12 Finland
does not have a major position in global gaming
industry. Finnish game companies have been
successful with individual game titles by high
quality studios like Remedy, mobile game de-
22
velopment, and social gaming services that mix
casual gaming with participative media (Habbo
Hotel). However, the gaming industry in Finland
is still in its infancy.
What are the central national initiatives
now?
This is a partial list of on-going efforts in Finland
related to the vision:
Newly formed Ministry of Employment and
the Economy
Tekes on-going programs: VERSO, VAMOS,
Ubicom, TILA
Nokia’s strategic shift into becoming a significant
internet service company
Industry R&D
Active participation in EU research
programmes
E-government services
Dimes
Forum Virium
ICT SHOK, Tivit, and Flexible Services SRA
Forest cluster SHOK
Various Living Labs initiatives
(Finnlab Oulu/Turku, Helsinki Area)
Finnish game industry cluster
Innoprint - innovative printing industry
Helsinki Innovation University
3.4 Roadmap
This chapter introduces seven identified solution
areas to reach the vision of the previous chapter,
and then specifies a more detailed roadmap for
three of these. The solution areas can be characterized
as follows:
1. Open media platforms. Open platforms
should be supported so that we have an advantage
in building the new services more flexibly;
open models are supporting professional
content creation and can benefit from different
forms of “collective intelligence” of people.
2. Mobile Internet. The new possibilities of
ubiquitous media are in many ways related to
the possibilities of future mobile internet devel-
12 Financial Times, Jan 4 2008 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b748f350-baeb-11dc-9fbc-0000779fd2ac.html)

opment. This future ubimedia platform consists
of many new business enablers, such as:
– Ubiquitous information flows: we can turn
any information source to a data flow that is
available anywhere.
– Positioning of people and things: cheap indoor
and outdoor positioning technologies
for new media services that are dependent
on context information, such as location
sensitive advertising.
– Sensors everywhere: using sensors at home,
at work in our surroundings to make smarter
systems, help ICT solutions to recognize the
state of the environment and adapt to it, and
increase human awareness of effects of our
own everyday behavior.
– Displays everywhere: we can expect the
growth in various types of electronic display
technologies, and we are rapidly moving
from approximately 10 digital displays
to 100 displays per household; how will this
change our media behavior?
– Ubiquitous data security: reliability of information,
data security and trustworthy infrastructure
become more important over
time, and Finland can be well-positioned to
be competitive in this market.
Nokia wants to more open and concentrating
on the Internet and new services. Nokia’s business
activity is currently bigger than the music
business or camera business globally, and
these industries could be directed by Nokia, if
they so wish. Finland should make sure that
there exists a new R&D and business cluster
around the evolving Nokia. By building a
strong mobile services cluster around Nokia,
Finland can leapfrog from the current status of
mediocrity in internet services onto one of the
major global developers.
3. Culture and entertainment. Can we make
something of a major scale with Finnish culture?
This is not so much about exporting
Finnish cultural products, but to export services
that are rooted in the Finnish culture and
have global reach and demand. The ways of
operation are becoming more based on networks,
new partnerships, growing economies;
international collaboration in the different axis
of cultural exchange. Many of the most important
game developers of Europe are in Nordic
countries, and the hope is that we can come up
with novel mixtures with global partnerships.
How about Nintendo Kalevala?
4. Learning. Understanding that democratic access
to information and learning has been one
of Finland’s keys to success. By raising the
knowledge level of the whole nation has allowed
to find resources for demanding tasks
that has risen the country at the top international
level, for example in telecommunications.
General media skills are at a high level in
Finland, and this needs to be retained, but we
should also be able to transform these into internationally
important products. Instead of
mechanistic information gathering we need
people who are highly skilled in information
refining, knowledge creation and exploitation.
We are moving from one-way teaching from
pupils to learners towards community-centric
learning. New forms of community-centric
learning, using new technologies are needed to
support discovery, insight creation and interpretation
will replace the existing learning
practices.
5. Well-being and sustainable living. ICT and
media tools are both a problem and a potential
solution. ICT may decrease the everyday mobility
thus reducing the normal physical activity
level. Then again, there is a big opportunity
to develop new solutions and services that motivate
people to stay in shape (e.g., life span
monitoring of health). Environmental theme is
rising from various directions and IT and media
has an important role to play in sustainable
development. Sustainable development puts
pressure on supporting new forms of behavior
related to consumption, mobility and tourism,
which all have links to uses of media technology
and new services. All in all, Finland could
be a model country for sustainable living and
the usage of IT.
6. Print 2.0. Publishing, print communication
and ICT combined with new products and services
is a unique combination globally, and
fundamental for the Finnish industrial structure.
There is a need to redefine the role of
print products in the future landscape of media
use, as media, ICT and paper industry have a
joint future.
23

7. User-centered media. Media’s role will develop
based on observed everyday life of people.
New media breakthroughs come through
projects that involve users from an early stage.
This requires constant measuring, modeling
and development in product design resulting
in continuing perfection of services, media
and design.
In addition we considered the following as supporting
solution areas: 1) IPR-basis: new business
models make new kinds of IPR-practices; we need
to re-organize the IPR status quo in a radically different
way, and 2) innovation environment; increase
R&D funding to the development communities;
increase risk funding; experimentation and
risk-taking aside entrepreneurship; user communities
should join the development processes.
In our analysis we chose three of these solution
areas for further analysis: user-centered media,
open media platforms, and print 2.0. This was
more due to the interests of panel participants
than due to them being relatively the most important
solutions.
User-centered media
Integrating “consumer-driven” and “interactive”
to modes of thinking and measurement tools of the
media industry is important. This underlines how
far the traditional media business has moved from
providing a service for individual people (based on
their individual needs) as well as having a real dialogue
between the media professionals and their
customers. Many media products are created with
the advertisers in mind, and the tools for audience
clustering, such as attitude/values based RISC
analysis, are becoming outdated. There is a new
set of skills that the traditional media industry
needs to learn on how to understand what the customers
need, and it looks like that it is other new
players that are taking that role and doing it instead
A key characteristic of the Internet era is that media
is becoming more a service than a packaged
product. This has to be reflected in how the business
is conducted. Mobile is becoming as powerful
as PC technology and the two might largely
merge by the year 2020.
24
It seems that the advertising business model is rising
in prominence and will be even more important
than before. However, there is very strong
business drive towards customized and contextdependent
advertising (just watch what Google is
doing). The old models of segmenting, targeting
and measuring audiences do not apply as such.
People in the industry (professional media and advertising)
talk about fragmentation as a problem,
when in fact it is just as well could be considered as
better customer service.
Behaviorial analysis necessitates rich means to
observe, analyze and utilize human behavior.
Better understanding of media user experience is
important, and human-centric and multi-disciplinary
media research is needed for this purpose.
Collecting dynamically and in real time information
about the use of products and services is a
key skill for human-centric development. This results
in making constant changes and revisions in
the services, thus shortening the development cycles
drastically. Swarm behavior is different than
uses of current social media, and we can provide
new forms of following how the flocks behave
and move vis-a-vis each other. Here new mobile
Internet tools are the key enabler.
There needs to be ways to measure success and
excellence of user interfaces better. Conceptualizing
the Social UI may become a critical new
business enabler. People need better tools to control
their presence in different social circles.
Prosumer UIs are also different that consumer
UIs, and understanding this difference is critical.
Finally, here is a list of other conditions relevant
for human-centric development:
Local content in local language is not disappearing,
and this is not so much connected to
the changes in journalism and journalistic content.
However, the segment that wants to experience
big media in the original language is
growing.
Self-service society is a global phenomena, and
Finland becoming the #1 in ICT-enabled self
service concepts.

Figure 3.5. User-centered media roadmap
Generational differences means that seniors
and young people have changing practices in
communications.
Elegant design is based on high skills in the
media and service design, where there is vast
potential in Finland, which we have not yet
been able to exploit in esign of media content
and services.
Interface is the key. We need to get away from
the mechanistic user interface. Technology
and media becomes anthropomorphized when
we add humanistic understanding to technology.
Measuring humans (physiological signals,
simplistic design) becomes more relevant,
as well as building systems that react to
human emotions.
Device is the challenge: Agent or assistant technology
is adjusting to the user and resulting in
the need for effective direct and indirect control
mechanisms on media devices. Best assistants
makes a good and systematic analysis of the
world for us, and understand human language.
Open media platforms
Open development and innovation models are fast
spreading in different areas of digital industry. Media
industry is striving toward media products and
services, where the traditional forms of production
are joined with production and distribution structures
typical to Internet (e.g. open source software).
Also, the technical basis of media industry
is shifting from standard-centricity to “open solution”-centricity,
where on-going big wave is open
platforms for media content management and distribution,
as well as open interfaces between web
services, and resulting service mashups. Equally
strongly, we see this same trend clearly in virtual
environments and online games.
Big ICT actors are promoting open environments,
and Linux is an example of a vast global
success story in this area. Finnish hackers have
been major initiators of this and other software
initiatives that have grown into significant global
scale. Sometimes these projects bring nice na-
25

tional PR, which of course helps our small country,
but may not bring so much business benefits.
Openness has proven to be an effective means to
create new services, and in general openness belief
is currently strong. This is largely based on
the idea that the actor who is able to develop the
open and central hubs for activity will understand
before others what the business model is that will
support the emerging activity in the long run.
This model has worked especially well for
Google (but not so well for some others). The meter
for success should be whether Finland has
been able to create significant amount of new
business growth based on the open initiatives, or
gained other measurable indirect benefits, such
as significantly raising the local knowledge level.
This latter may be a suitable criteria to assess the
importance of Linux on Finland.
Open models of knowledge creation and innovation
take time as there a strong cultural shift that needs to
26
Figure 3.6. Detailed roadmap of the open media platforms
take place. User participation demands some form
of openness from the actors anyway, and Finnish attitudes
are positively inclined towards openness.
However, there is a global level business risk, as international
actors don’t necessarily reciprocate with
Finnish openness. We are still in the middle of the
first generation in this shift.
Open platform can be a relevant component to
make the cultural goal of our vision possible. This
has been successfully applied in games business
where the success of many game developers lies
in giving the user community enough tools and
flexibility to tailor the original products and come
up with derived or totally new ideas. Professional
media production can therefore benefit significantly
from user innovations. This can be observed,
for example, in the international success
story of Sulake’s Habbo Hotel, where the interesting
part of the service is user-driven innovation
using simple rooms and virtual furniture as
building blocks for new mini-service innovations
inside the virtual environment.

There needs to be core actors that are located in
Finland, but we also need to be open to all local
and international actors. In the ICT sector at
large, there is already a multitude of companies
that are building their business on the open source
model, but doing integration and services. The
same applies to digital media content.
Open innovation models works particularly well
for new media content and services for the benefit
of the public sector. There are many large-scale
efforts that have the goal of creating major assets
of media available. Some of these collaborative
peer produced media products are generated by
active user communities, such as Wikipedia. The
underlying content production platform, Wiki, is
an open user interface innovation as such.
Open business models can become an integral
part of media company strategy and actions.
However, it must be acknowledged that the business
models and benefits of fully open IPR model
are still quite foggy. New models may be needed,
Figure 3.7. Print 2.0 roadmap
and the example of dual-licensing from open
source software may also be relevant here.
Print 2.0
Print media is not disappearing, although forest
sector is facing important long-term challenges in
keeping the position it has today on the media
market. There is a need to rethink what paper-based
products are good for in the future, and
most likely they will develop and to get new features
in the future.
In many ways paper is still superior to electronic
equivalents. However, new paper-like displays
are being developed. These are typically called
e-paper displays. Printed electronics make paper
into a possible technical platform for logic circuits
and embedded electronic displays. There
are several competing technology alternatives in
this space. It is still unclear what is the role of
Finnish companies will be in this development.
So far this has concentrated on embedded sensors
27

and remote identification of smart fibre-based
packaging using RFID tags. However, there is
still little that indicate that traditional paper companies,
such as UPM, would like to become a significant
manufacturer of ubiquitous paper-like
electronic displays.
ICT & Forest industry: cross-sector
collaboration
Finland has world leading expertise in ICT sector
and the forest sector, and media and communications
sector overlaps to a large degree with both.
It is of great national importance for Finland how
these three sectors could succeed in working
closer together to develop new solutions and new
products. However, it can argued that not too
much has been achieved in this industrial
multi-sector collaboration. This is also mirrored
in the recently established national strategic
R&D cluster structure (SHOKs), where the current
crisp division into “forest cluster” and “ICT
cluster” provides little incentives for cross-cluster
collaboration.
Most initiatives to do this collaboration concretely
have been based on ideas for new technical
innovations, such as functionality that allows
novel combinations of fibre-based products and
electronic media. This has been termed as “hybrid
media”. However, despite several years of
research, this concept has not gained any significant
momentum internationally. So far, only few
new truly hybrid media companies have emerged
in Finland. Rapidly growing area of printed electronics
and novel paper-like displays is not particularly
strong in Finland commercially despite the
R&D effort taken.
Combining social digital media with print
The paper products, such as printed newsletters
for associations, are still highly valuable and effective
form of social media. What has changed is
that they have become easier to produce due to
expansion of desktop publishing and they can be
more interactive and reflect the opinions of the
28
members better due to increasing use of electronic
media.
When new innovations are considered on the web
and the Internet, the paper is almost always neglected
as a possible media. The problem is that
paper is seen as old and uninteresting technology.
There are also only few web-based tools and services
for people to re-invent paper products themselves.
A lesson learned from the ICT sector is to be open
and facilitate innovation among the end users. To
achieve this the pulp and paper industry must take
an active role in enabling regular people to be creative
with paper, especially using digital tools and
online collaboration. New business models for
small-scale publishing allow for different forms
of publishing 13 . The point is that the new innovative
uses for paper could start from better use digital
tools and online collaboration, which has
been witnessed to work on the all-digital media
use, and closer interaction with the users and getting
inspiration from the everyday changes in
people’s lives.
User-centric print products
Paper industry has traditionally done relatively little
user-centric R&D and could learn from the
methods now commonplace in ICT, such as such
as human-centric design and user-generated content.
This could help in defining how media use in
everyday life is changing and exploring innovatively
new uses for paper.
The pulp and paper business may be interested to
come up with new innovative consumer products
and services. Paper industry should also accept
new design and business perspectives. It may be
useful to compare the situation of some hardware
and software giants (Intel, Microsoft, Nokia) and
paper industry. The ICT industry is adapted to understanding
the everyday life context of their new
products and is willing to invest major amounts of
funding to use their own R&D for creation of new
markets for the IT core products, such as micro-
13 This is nicely demonstrated by an innovative online service called Lulu.com, which has shown that self-publishing of
books can be fun, easy, and affordable.

processors, operating systems and telecommunications
hardware.
It should be the role of the paper industry to show
both consumers and businesses that paper is often
far superior to digital alternatives. However, the
situation is changing and the pressures to cut
costs to keep in line with the sinking markets and
diminishing profits often means that little is left
aside for truly novel thinking.
3.5 Conclusions and
recommendations
The key driving force behind the changes in the
media industry is the rapid development of ICT,
which has given users more power to control their
media use and brought digital media production
and distribution within the reach of everyone.
Mobile devices that can be also used for instant
capture of reasonably high quality media accelerate
this trend. The challenges are growing, and
the importance of this area is rising to a new scale
Why?
Drivers
and
trends
What?
Central
solutions
How?
– skills
– practices
– co-operation
for Finland enabling new societal and business
practices and forming a large converging media
cluster.
Figure 3.8 summarizes the work at a higher level,
identifying the main drivers, solutions and central
actions to reach the identified vision and identified
goals. Our proposed vision is largely based
on building excellence in new forms of media
content and services, but many of the solutions
and key enablers are less directly media content
related.
The proposed initiatives needed to reach the
goals are as follows:
Media cluster development: It is important to
recognize that the Finnish media cluster
should be tightened, and it should have a stronger
supporting R&D network and international
contacts behind it. Media cluster should be
closely connected to nearby clusters. There are
unique skills in Finland but they are spread too
thin. New ways of functioning and collaboration
are needed, and this necessitates global
Consumers, media and digital convergence
Changing role of user
and bigger consumer
power
User centered media
Understanding of user driven
media development and
business models
Investment in
R&D and education
Print 2.0 Mobile internet
Media cluster
development
Media as enabler in
new societal and
business practices
Rapid development of
ICT technolgy
Learning Wellbeing Culture
Good innovation
environment
Co-operation between
different authorities
and public agencies
Figure 3.8. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals
Open media
platforms
IPR rules enabling
new business
29

30
networks and internationally visible flagship
actors. We have also a good technological level
to start innovating on, but new investments
need to be made in strategically chosen content
and service domains. Our proposal is that
learning, well-being and entertainment hold
the biggest promise as areas for content and
media services. For example, gaming industry
has been identified as a potential growth sector
in Finland and this is a good start. Finland is
well-positioned in games business due to a
strong mix of programming skills, hacker culture
and digital design. With adequate support
for development and access to capital this sector
could develop into the cultural powerhouse
of the Finnish content industry. Being one of
the top five game media countries globally, and
a leader in some of the fastest growing sectors
of games and synthetic worlds, should be chosen
as a national goal.
Understanding of user-driven media development
and business models: We need experimental
settings for constant experimentation,
and citizens and prospective users should
embrace these national and local initiatives
and participate actively. There are many living
labs initiatives currently being run and prepared,
but it is important that these are truly
reaching the everyday lives of people, or rather
that they are even welcomed as an integral part
of it. One solution is to think of this concept of
living labs from a non-media and IT-centric
viewpoint. There are also some important
user-initiated innovation events and platforms,
such as the “Assembly”-grass roots
level event for gamers. The Finnish media
business actors should be leading in the world
in promoting open user innovation, and also
understanding its commercial potential and
connected business models. Media is also increasingly
a means for self-reflection and pursuing
personal goals. This makes it more understandable,
why so many amateurs are willing
to participate in the media production. Finland
should take a leading role in creating
do-it-yourself media tools and platforms to
further fuel this change.
Investment in R&D and education: There is
a need to increase R&D funding in the media
cluster. It has typically utilized new technology
only when it has matured long enough, and
“cutting edge” and “permanent beta” are quite
strange modes of operation for the traditional
media industry, where high reliability and
journalistic integrity are the key values.
Change will result from a combination of attitude
shift in established companies towards
R&D, new clusters of start-ups, targeted research
programs and expertise networks, and
better quality universities. There is a need to
significantly improve the quality and scope of
interactive digital media research and education
in Finland, and quality has to be at the top
international level. We need multi-disciplinary
education from various domains related to the
media field, and concerns especially the humanistic
and societal areas. The journalism education
should be developed, but there should
also be more emphasis on media service innovation
and media management. The new “Innovation
University” can have a key role,
bringing together the viewpoints of technology,
business and human-centered design
skills.
Good innovation environment: New positive
business thinking is required: we need concrete
initiatives to help forming of new businesses
and encouraging risk-taking that is targeted
for international success. This necessitates
new initiatives for higher education and
venturing. We need to build a culture that tolerates
failure in business ventures. More business
expertise is required. From interesting
and potential areas of content there is too long
way to products, markets and business. This
could be a good challenge for SITRA, and they
should be involved more in planning. There
needs to be new types of business connected to
campuses and their vicinity, where new generations
of media use will be incubated and new
forms of knowledge creation is to flourish. The
sector would benefit from professorships,
which are partly in the university and partly in
companies.

IPR rules enabling new business: IPR is central
to media business, but it can act locally either
as a hindrance or as an enabler. IPR legislation
needs to be internationally reconsidered,
for example to better support open innovation
practices in media. How much would different
IPR rules change things? Legislation regarding
owner and consumer rights to media is also far
from perfect. The unwanted or uncontrolled
usage of the P2P file sharing has been the reason
for fierce opposition from the part of the
content owners. However, to consumers P2P
presents a new relatively easy-to-use channel
to search and find content without leaving
home, and many are neglecting the IPR laws
because of this convenience and availability of
media.
Co-operation between different authorities
and funding agencies: We need to make conscious
choices on where to put the emphasis,
and government officials should share the
common vision. New tools and funding structures
might be necessary, and the ICT SHOK
could be important for the future of media.
However, current plans include only a small
fragment that is concentrating on media, and
this will not be large enough. We should also
promote the capabilities and new media literacy
of Finnish citizens at large (LVM, OPM).
31

4 Health in aging society
Raimo Sepponen,
Helsinki University of Technology
Panel chairman
Raimo Sepponen,
Helsinki University of Technology
Panel members
Timo Ekroos, ISAK
Jarmo Eskelinen, Forum Virium
Pentti Itkonen,
Ministry of Social Affairs and Health
Pekka Kahri, Tekes
Pirkko Karjalainen, Central Union for
the Welfare of the Aged
Mauno Konttinen,
Stakes – National Research and
Development Centre for Welfare and Health
Samuli Saarni,
National Public Health Institute in Finland
Niilo Saranummi, Tekes
Hilkka Tervaskari, Finnish Wellbeing Center Oy
Erkki Vauramo,
Helsinki University of Technology / HEMA
32
4.1 Introduction
Aging of the Finnish population
The aging of population is a challenge facing developed
and some developing nations. Finland is
one of the forerunners in getting old. The challenge
culminates just in the period which is targeted
in this foresight report (Figure 4.1). During
this foresight period the number of people living
on a pension is high mostly due to the “baby
boom” after the Second World War. The size of
the aged population compared to the size of the
population of people in active work during the period
2025 -2030 will be higher in Finland than in
any other EU country.
This development will lead to increased spending
on both health and social care. The expected
Figure 4.1. The age distribution of the Finnish population in years 1910–2040.
Source: Pekka Parkkinen

1950
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Lapset 0–19-vuotiaat
Lähteet: Tilastokeskus (2004) ja Tilastokeskuksen väestötilastot vuodesta 1950 lähtien
length of life in 2050 is predicted to be about 3,5
years longer than today. Hence, the oldest age
group will be the fastest growing part of the population
(Figure 4.2).
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Työikäiset (20–60-v.)
65–74-vuotiaat
75–84-vuotiaat
85–110-vuotiaat
0
Eläkeläiset 65–110-v.
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Figure 4.2. The subgroups of the aged segment of population 1950–2040.
Source: Pekka Parkkinen
Lähde: Sosiaali- ja terveysministeriöstä (Veli Laine) saatu data
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
The use of health and social care services and
needs of support will increase when a person gets
older (Figure 4.3). Therefore, the aging itself is
not only determinant of the increased costs but
also the health status of aging population.
0
0
0–4 10–14 20–24 30–34 40–44 50–54 60–64 70–74 70–84 90–94 100–
Figure 4.3a. Average personal health care costs of municipalities in 1000 by age groups.
Source: Pekka Parkkinen
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
33

The increase of mental and physical disabilities is
inevitable as the population is aging (Figure 4.4).
There are, however, possibilities still to influence
the pace of this process.
During the foresight period there are only limited
capabilities to change the costs of health care delivery
for people with diagnosed chronic illnesses.
There are also limited possibilities to develop new
measures of preventive health care. However, by
utilizing the knowledge that already exists, improving
organisation and fully exploiting the tech-
34
15 %
10 %
6 %
3 %
1 %
11 %
43 %
8 %
3 %
0 – 6
7 – 16
17 – 19
20 – 64
65 – 74
75 – 84
85 – 89
90 – 94
95 –
Figure 4.3b. The division of health care costs by the age groups.
Source: Erkki Vauramo
nology we have, we may be able to avoid the resource
crisis that faces us in the future. In the
course of doing so, we may even introduce new
product and service concepts into society.
We need methods and practices to identify individuals
at the highest risk for the major chronic
diseases-atherosclerosis, heart failure, cancer, diabetes,
alcohol-related diseases and neurodegenerative
and psychiatric disorders – those
things that account for the bulk of heath care expenditures
(Figure 4.5 and 4.6).
Figure 4.4. Disability in different age groups. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Report on Americans with Disabilities: 1994-95, P70-61 (August 1997)

Figure 4.5. Probability to suffer at some stage of life from cancer.
Source: Cancer Society of Finland
The prevalence of the chronic illnesses increases
by age. There will be many individuals
suffering from more than one of the above mentioned
pathological conditions and therefore,
require continuous medical care from several
specialists.
The current health care system is neither flexible
nor well adapted to the changing patient profile. It
is divided into different disciplines that seek to
target the curing of diseases and injuries. In future
there will be more and more patients with a number
of incurable degenerative diseases, which are
sometimes combined with traumas. The goal of
the care may not always be a complete cure of the
pathology. Instead the treatment may be targeting
to make the quality of life as high as possible during
the remaining few years of life.
35

The field of health care is rather conservative and
the process of implementing changes occurs
slowly. There are responsibilities which must be
redefined and revenues that must be redirected.
Both these issues make the system slow to change
without strong initiatives from the government.
New models of preventive health care delivery
are needed. Such models should serve the dual
goals of improving outcomes while controlling
costs. The quality of the services must be defined.
One must establish proper quantitative and qualitative
measures to determine if a specific change
actually leads to the desired improvement.
The responsibility of each individual of his or her
health must be emphasized more than has been
done so in the past. It has been suggested that the
poor cost - benefit performance of USA health care
is partially due to the bad lifestyle choices of people.
Low levels of physical activity, combined with a
high caloric and fatty diet are proving to be behind
the chronic conditions mentioned above. Being
overweight with increased intra- and extra-abdominal
fat can lead to metabolic disorders and adult
type of diabetes. Many scientifically sound studies
published recently support this.
36
MILJ EUROA
1 800
Kustannusennusteet
1600
eksponentiaalinen ennuste
asiantuntija arvioihin perustuva
1400
regressioennuste
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Figure 4.6. Prediction of the cancer related health care costs.
Source: Cancer Society of Finland
2012
2013
2014
2015
Policymakers also should focus on ways to reduce
cancer, heart disease and lung disease. Stepped-up
efforts to reduce tobacco use, control blood pressure,
reduce cholesterol and regulate blood sugar
are required. (Dr. Christopher Murray, head of the
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the
University of Washington)
The lifestyle of Finnish population is following
that of the USA. The importance of diet, weight
control and proper physical exercise has been
demonstrated in a number of well controlled
studies. The difficult question is how to change
the life style of the majority of the population.
There has been one success story about 30 years
ago: the North Karelia project. Today we are in
need of a similar success story – but the circumstances
are far more challenging. Finland is not
anymore such a homogenous nation it once was
and there are strong factors, which are opposing
any positive changes in the lifestyle of the population.
The challenge should be faced by addressing
the whole health continuum, which is depicted
in Figure 4.7.

CARE of
ILLNESS
SELF
CARE
Home care &
Independent
living
Active Health
“Worried Well”
Fitness
PRO-
ACTIVE
Development of the Finnish economy
The social and health care institutions in Finland are
mainly funded through direct taxation of the population.
Even now when the relationship between
working population and people living on pension is
favourable the taxation level remains high. The
well-being of Finland is also very dependent on the
volume of exported goods. Because Finnish economy
needs an increasing amount of imported raw
materials and energy, it is necessary also to have
strong exports. In the long run, the trade balance
should be positive. The world economy is changing
due to globalisation and there will be tough competition
between nations to secure investments. Finland
is a relatively small market and is not such an
attractive target for foreign investors when compared
to many other places in both Europe and
Asia. During this foresight period, however, the
Baltic countries and especially Russia are developing
rapidly. Finland seems rather well positioned
to enter these neighbouring markets. Unfortunately,
this potential has not yet been fully realized
and Finland is being left behind both Sweden
and Germany in exploring one of the fastest growing
markets in the world.
Continuum of health and illness
Ageing Independently
Ambient Assisted Living Disease
Wellness
management
Elevated
risk factors
Figure 4.7. The health continuum concept.
Management
Chronic
disease
Rehabilitation
Acute Care
Acute
illness
(episode)
RE-
ACTIVE
As we are now aware that the costs of the maintaining
the welfare state in Finland will increase
steadily, both productivity and volume of exports
must increase correspondingly. There are at least
two serious threats, which may make these goals
difficult to reach: There will be shortages in the
labour force and the terms of trade are getting
lower due to the increasing costs of energy and
raw materials (Figure 4.8). Furthermore the
added value typically associated with Finnish
products is getting lower. It may be noted that the
terms of trade of Denmark and Sweden have not
decreased since 1995. This indicates that the innovation
process and characteristics of industry
in those countries are superior compared those of
Finland.
The export of high technology products was 30 %
from total value of export in year 2000. This share
had fallen to about 25 % by 2005. This development
leads to the awkward situation that highly
educated Finland imports expensive products but
only exports low cost products. It is clear that low
cost products will be manufactured in countries
where the costs are much lower than in developed
37

EU countries. The competition will seriously affect
the volume of the Finnish manufacturing industry.
It has been predicted that after five years the public
sector will absorb all the work force which
will enter the labour market. Of course, this is not
feasible in practice but it is a clear indication of
the need of radical changes in the production of
services. Hopefully the PARAS-reform of municipalities
will produce the expected results. The
reduction of the total labour force of Finland will
be about 200 000 during next 25 years. Partly this
reduction may be compensated by better organisation
of work using new methods and techniques.
Finland will also inveigle workers from
other countries. However, there will be a great
need of new labour force in neighbouring countries
and not insignificantly in economically rising
Russia.
The current (not explicitly stated) strategy is to
produce more the same but with a higher efficiency.
When this factor is combined with the
drastically shrinking pool of available labour, the
unhappy outcome is obvious. There is an urgent
need to invigorate the birth of new innovative
growth companies.
38
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
Vientihinnat/tuontihinnat (1995=100)
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Figure 4.8. Development of terms of trade of Finland. Source: Tilastokeskus
The investments in R&D after the IT bubble have
been rather modest. The major industrial sectors
of Finland are investing inadequate resources in
R&D. (In order to get the true picture of the situation
the R&D investments of Nokia should be
considered separately). The introduction of new
products will take generally more than five years,
often as long as 10 – 15 years. Therefore, the low
level of R&D investments will have a significant
negative impact on the economy during this foresight
period.
The net investments in Finland are rather modest
and only partly directed to the industry (Figure
4.9). When this is combined with the low domestic
investment level, the economy is not capable
of supporting any development of Finland’s competitive
export industry. The low investment level
is reflected in the decrease in the number of
growth companies (Figure 4.10).
The increased growth of the service sector has
been noticeably fast and this has also reduced the
interest to invest in manufacturing industry.
There is a general belief among economists and
business analysts that the future industrial products
will be manufactured in countries where the
labour and raw material costs are lowest. When
this trend is weighted against the high level of

Milj. euroa
9 000
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
8 549
2 941
taxation and the kind of support policy it can be
easily predicted that the developed EU countries
and especially Finland will all be losers in this
game. There is, however, still an export growth in
the industrial sectors where good design, high
quality and technological ingenuity remain as the
competitive edge. By investing in research, development
and in the innovation process Finland
may partly avoid stagnation destined for the
2 418
3 158
2 059
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Figure 4.9. The net investments in Finland. Source: The Bank of Finland
Amount
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
162
Fast Growing Companies in Finland
89
92
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Figure 4.10. Growth companies in Finland. Source: Sorvisto+ Balance Consulting &
Kauppalehti, 2005
85
economy. Unfortunately, this has still not been realized
by the government and it will take the hard
lessons of a severe economical crisis before
something will really begin to happen to strike at
the root causes of the problem.
It seems that Finland must take care of the aging
population with significantly smaller resources
than has been previously assumed. However,
44
39

there could be an upside to all this doom and
gloom: Due to the drastically shrinking resources,
the organisations, obliged to provide the
required services must truly start to innovate.
This will require a quality control and supportive
legislation. Without these measures, the quality
of services will be low and the living conditions
of the poorest segment of old people will be miserable.
4.2 Scenarios for 2030
During the panel work the main drivers for the
scenarios were selected: individualism vs. collectivism
and economic crisis vs. economic growth.
Figure 4.11 shows the positioning of the scenarios.
The positions are based on the conclusions of
the panel discussions.
The development of economy and the values of
the society are major characteristics to the hypothetical
scenarios. The drivers are strongly coupled,
in this respect the orthogonal presentation
may be misleading. The development of the
economy affects the behaviour of people who are
part of it. A robust economy may lead toward individualism,
while a poor economical environment
may trigger a spirit of individualism which
40
Individualism
Collectivism
borders on anarchy. It was assumed for the discussions
that the political and environmental development
occurs without any substantial crisis
or other unforeseen dramatic changes.
Scenario 1
It may be assumed that there are severe environmental
problems in many Asian countries due to
the uncontrolled exploitation and pollution of the
natural environment. These countries are no longer
attractive for the high tech industry. The slowdown
of the economy has brought up some political
problems.
Globalisation and immigration are visible also in
the devaluation of nationalism. The industry of
EU is protected against competition from countries
with low labour, social and environmental
costs by a strong wall of directives.
The development of economy has been positive,
and there is enough money to support an adequate
level of social and health care. In addition a relatively
large number of aged people are capable of
buying additional services. There is a significant
difference in both the quality and quantity of services
for a wealthy population compared to what
Scenario 1
Economical crisis Economical growth
Scenario 2
Figure 4.11. Positioning of the selected Scenarios.

is available in practice for the majority of aged
people. The polarisation of the society is significant
and further increasing. There are also a relatively
large number of elderly people from Asian
countries and from Russia living in Finland. This
is because there is a good political stability. Finland
is a safe living environment and the nature
remains relatively unpolluted. The differences
between regions of Finland are steadily growing.
As the laws of economy seem to determine the
development of society, confidence in the political
system is decreasing.
International companies provide the majority of
the services. However, there are a number of
smaller companies targeting focused customer
groups. Migrant workers are a significant part of
labour force in the social and health care sectors.
The quality of services is high due to the competition.
There is also a strong legislation to enforce
the high quality of services. Independence is considered
vital for the quality of life.
There are plenty of opportunities for elderly people
to have a full or part time work. Many are actually
continuing their career several years after
the official retirement age. This further enhances
the Finnish economy.
People are trying to remain living in their own
homes as long as they possibly can. This is partly
a result of the excessively high costs of institutional
care and partly because there are proper
services available. The fear of security threats, either
true or imagined, makes homes as protected
zones from the outside world. The need for a social
life stimulates a generation of various ad-hoc
social groups and breathes new life into various
interest groups.
Finland has successfully exploited the rise of
both Russia and Baltic countries. Wealthy St. Petersburg
region is a strong market for Finnish
products and services. There is a large active Russian
population, which are living shorter or longer
periods in Finland. A good infrastructure of
broad-band communication and fast train connections
between cities including St. Petersburg
allow people to be working nearly everywhere.
This reduces the problems related to the reduction
of the labour force and the society can successfully
respond to the challenge of the aging
population.
Scenario 2
A serious crisis of economy will reduce the funding
available for social and health care. Only a
small group of wealthy people are capable to buy
services and therefore there are not a large number
of service providers. Municipal services are
barely adequate. Some variations of the almshouse
concept are adopted. The prioritisation is
strong. Therefore people try to cope by themselves
or by getting some support from neighbours
and relatives. Some type of co-operative organisations
will be introduced. Old and young
people are living together to facilitate the possibility
to provide the necessary help and care. People
have returned to the barter economy to support
daily living. Individualism is slowly replaced
with collectivism. The feeling of isolation
and loneliness will therefore be a smaller problem
than in the Scenario 1.
Many must work after the official retirement age.
Usually the work will be done in the grey labour
market. Because people will have less money
they will eat less and maybe healthier food. People
will do more physical work. This may reduce
the risks of degenerative diseases like diabetes,
atherosclerosis and dementia. The consumption
of drugs will be reduced and people try to cope
with minor health problems by themselves.
Internet health services will be popular. Distributed
diagnosis and home healthcare (D2H2) will
be introduced by several international companies.
Some low cost instrumentation will be used
at homes and low grade health centres. The life
quality of the major part of aged people is not
very high. Support networks of relatives and
friends will be necessary.
41

The challenges and opportunities of
the Scenario 1
The life style in the society of the Scenario 1 is
quite dynamic. Small and middle sized enterprises
provide services, which are tailored to the
needs of their customers. Because the prices of
energy and raw materials are high and getting
even higher, the products are well designed and
durable. It may be that the present shopping malls
are replaced with local virtual shops. Selected
products are delivered directly to homes. This development
has actually been started. Online web
based shops have been taking a greater share of
the market away from speciality shops selling
home appliances and electronics. Even drugs are
delivered through mail after a prescription has
been provided. The pressures of international
competition will drive down the prices of
pharmaceuticals and the Finnish pharmacy concept
may disappear altogether.
The opportunity for Finnish companies is to establish
a lean chain of logistics to deliver products
to customers in Finland and, for example, in Russia.
The delivery of daily consumer goods will be
important especially for aged people.
The level of immigration has been strong and the
Finnish society has moved towards a multicultural
and multilingual society, where the values
might not been same for all. This will generate the
need to learn other languages in addition to Finnish,
Swedish and English. The Russian language
will be more and more important.
Because there is an increase of heterogeneity in the
society there will be an increasing need to improve
security or feeling of security. Therefore new sophisticated
methods to monitor environment and
personal well being will be introduced. The services
in this field will be delivered by private companies
except in case of major emergencies when
public services will take the responsibility.
The need for physical and mental activation will
lead to a development of new social interactions,
which are either web-based and/or involving dedicated
technology.
42
People will be more and more conscious about
the value of pollution free environment. Natural
and health food will gain more and more popularity.
People are willing to pay rather well if they
are assured that the food is produced without pesticides
and even without genetic manipulation.
This is despite that fact that genetic manipulation
has been shown on occasions to be an effective
way of combating pests.
In cities people are using compact cars with low
fuel consumption. Hybrid motors will replace
other motor types. Because travelling will be
more and more expensive local adventure and
amusement services will be more and more popular.
High definition digital 3D- movie theatres
with kinetic auditoriums will offer experiences
which are comparable to true adventures.
Health care processes are changing fast from conventional
institution and discipline centred organisations
towards distributed service organisations.
A long term contact to a personal doctor or nurse
will be the key to more sophisticated services. It
will be more and more common to buy some extra
insurance to safeguard against cases of personal
catastrophe. For example, private cancer hospitals
may sell guaranteed care at defined level against
an annual fee. This fee is increasing progressively
as the customer gets older.
The challenges and opportunities of
the Scenario 2
The Scenario 2 is full of challenges. There is a
lack of money to provide the services. In addition
there is not a proper work force available to be
hired by social and health care organisations.
There are only a few private companies to offer
high level services for elderly. Therefore families
and relatives are forming co-operative organisations
to take care those who need care and help.
There will be some large groups offering their
services based on an exchange or barter economy.
The communication inside the group will take
place through Internet. The important issue is that
money is not moved. In this way taxation is
avoided and also a generation of extra income is

lost, which could reduce social security benefits.
Because the national economy is suffering from
chronic stagnation the unemployment rate is high
and therefore these service networks are operating
quite effectively.
Some technological advances are taken into
widespread use. Cars with very small fuel consumption
are popular. Hybrid motors are too expensive
but advances in diesel engines make it
possible to produce environment friendly cars at
much lower costs. These are manufacture in large
numbers in China and India.
Institutional care is squeezed to a minimum volume.
There are available low cost self test diagnostic
kits based on biochips. Internet based MD
services and pharmacy business are blooming.
There are Internet sites giving guidance how to
care minor and even some rather major health
problems. It may be that these sites give some
hints how to perform euthanasia, for example, by
using helium gas, which is mainly used to fill balloons.
Despite the depressing environment, the increasing
social life makes life seem rather good. The
number of practical and sensible inventions is increasing.
People are finding again the fundamen-
Horror
Scenario
Economical crisis
Scenario 2
Individualism
Collectivism
tal values of living. However, the consumption of
alcohol and prevalence of related diseases is constantly
increasing. Due to the problems in the society
violence will be a significant cause of death
for aged people.
Other scenarios
The previously discussed two scenarios are not
the only alternatives. If the development of the
society goes towards individualism or rather egoism
and the economic crisis is deep, then we
reach the worst scenario: the Horror Scenario. On
the other hand, if we make right decisions and the
development in other parts of the world is favourable,
then we reach the positive scenario:
“Finnworld”. The positioning of these two scenarios
is shown below in Figure 4.12.
Costs of health care increase fast. For example
the diagnosis of cancer becomes more and more
accurate but assumes a use of costly imaging
studies with specific markers. The use of positron
emission tomography combined with X-ray CT
and MRI has demonstrated to be very sensitive
and to have a high specificity. When the cancer is
detected the effective tailored treatment is very
costly. It is obvious that the society must make
Scenario 1
Economical growth
“Finnworld”
Figure 4.12. Positioning of the Horror scenario and the positive
“Finnworld” scenario.
43

decision who will and who will not receive the diagnosis
and treatment. Will people over 70 be eligible
to receive this type treatment or will they receive
only palliative treatment?
If the development of economy is weaker than expected
and the society will be more divided in two
main groups, the rich and the poor, people will be
more egoistic. The characteristics of the society
will correspond to those of the Horror Scenario.
In this scenario the Finnish society loses young,
educated people to other countries and the declining
economy can only very poorly support the aging
population.
The “Finnworld” scenario assumes that many developments
which are going on now have been
changed. Despite the inevitable increase of costs
of work, energy and raw materials Finland has
made strong investments in research and development.
The trade with rising neighbouring
countries is growing fast and there is a strong collaboration
in technological development. The
public and private organisations have a good cooperation
in providing services. The income dif-
44
ferences are reasonable but still motivate people
to work. The indicators of the operations of the
society are qualitative and not just quantitative.
This enables the public sector to buy services in a
cost effective manner without compromising
quality. Immigration has been strong enough to
provide the necessary labour force. Finland is
known to exploit technological advances in cost
effective way producing high quality services.
For a product or service to be successful, the
added value must be demonstrated to many interest
groups as well as to the target customer (Figure
4.13). Accordingly well controlled field studies
are to be conducted in Finland and in the major
export countries. For companies with a good reputation
it is easy to find opinion leaders and get
them to speak in favour of the products. The necessary
resources are available also for smaller
companies because new funding sources have
been established to support this type of efforts.
The Finnish system for social and health care are
copied in several countries and this enables Finnish
companies to market their products and services
worldwide.
Figure 4.13. The many faces of the customer. The added value for
each interest group must be demonstrated in the pilot studies.

4.3 Vision for 2030
The vision for 2030 is described in the following
statements:
There are internationally successful niche
based businesses which exploit effectively the
concept of a health continuum
Health continuum concept is exploited optimally
giving a high additional value to the society
The Finnish models for providing care to the
aging population have been successfully converted
to products and services which are used
worldwide
The selected ways to operate are true win-win
solutions that benefit all parties of social and
health care
The technological advances are fully exploited to
reduce the amount of routine work in health and
social care. The level of safety and human touch
make Finland an attractive country for people to
settle in. People from different countries are coming
to spend shorter or longer periods and enjoy
Support for new
practices
Solutions
Base
The Finnish society has made true strategic
decisions and corresponding operations.
A number of win-win opportunities have
been created for private and public sectors
A commonly accepted vision
has been created and a
national well being strategy
with corresponding resource
allocation has been introduced
the high quality of services. The production of
health is the focus of both private and public organisations.
The unspoiled nature enables Finland
to produce health food products, which are
exported worldwide.
The development of new technology takes place
in pilot environments to ensure that the customer
requirements are taken into account already at the
beginning of a development project. The goals
and vision are shown in Figure 4.14.
The Finnish technology for health care is focused
on sophisticated IT- and material solutions. With
these products and services an aged person may
manage their own daily life. The number of people
in institutional care is rather small. These places
are replaced with senior houses with customer
specific enhanced care. The homes include already
considerable amount of invisible technology
to support daily life and the systems may be
adapted according to the needs of the customer.
The advanced measurement systems may monitor
some important parameters of the human body and
Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society
– Vision and goals
New cost and
resource/effective
solutions are needed
The Finnish services, products and
practices are successfully turned into
products, which are successful around
the world.
Lack of proper labor
force
Economic crisis or
change in values
International issue of aging
population
Health continuum – The
Finnish social and health care
is based on synergistic approach
to improve the quality of life
with optimal use of resources.
The continuous
development work is
introducing internationally
niche business concepts.
Time 2030
Figure 4.14. Vision and goals of health in aging society
45

give indication of future or immediate needs of
help. The goal is to prevent accidents, for example,
falls and adjust the medical treatment for maximal
benefit. The transducers are contactless and therefore
are not any burden to the user.
Robot technology is by 2030 used in many places
to help people in such routine operations as cleaning
and the preparation of meals. Robots may
also function as a communication device if an accident
is detected. They can also survey the environment
and in that way increase safety. This
technology will also find a large market in those
countries where the environment is not so safe.
Logistics for delivery of the food and other goods
is operating effectively and is actually decreasing
the costs of life. There are only a few large shopping
malls. These serve also as some places for
the social life of people.
Immigration has enhanced the culture life and the
high definition television system makes it possible
to enjoy events such as theatre shows, concerts and
operas from the comfort of a person’s home.
It is important that new solutions for social and
health care are implemented in practice. Novel
types of alarm systems are necessary. The current
mobile alarm units which require active operation
from the user will be replaced by ubiquitous sensors.
These are supported with sophisticated software
packages to analyze the conditions observed.
The necessary functions are automated so they do
not need any active participation from the users.
Video monitoring will be used only in special
cases. People are rather sensitive to the privacy issues.
Video calls through Internet will, however,
be used extensively. The system may open a
video call automatically if an alarm situation is
detected,
Different types of fall detectors will be important,
but even more important will be detectors for a
tendency to fall. In a Finnish study, published recently
in the British Medical Journal concluded
that the prevention of falls is more cost effective
than treatment of osteoporosis with current medication.
46
Special protective garments will be available. Sophisticated
hip protectors are needed. This requires
considerable product development because
the present day protectors are clumsy and
inconvenient to put on and use.
Movement detectors and e.g. bed detectors to
monitor the activity of a person will be common.
The detectors may send an alarm if a person
leaves the bed during night time. It may also be
used to turn on and off lights. Movement detectors
may guard doorways. The monitoring of
more extreme cases of dementia will require the
use of a greater number of these types of sensors.
These systems may also be used for burglar
alarms.
Special smoke, fire and cooker alarms will be integrated
in home appliances.
Many of these features are already integrated in
new “smart” homes. These are not intended
solely for elderly people. Because their functions
are easy to change, they may be fitted to the needs
of the customers.
The assistive technology may be retrofitted to individually
tailored homes. The unobtrusive sensors
collect lifestyle pattern data. This data may
be used to evaluate the health status of the customer.
Additionally it provides the basis of smart
control and alarm system. The conclusions of a
study made in EU related to the future adoption of
different technologies are shown in Figure 4.15.
There are people who may not welcome the technological
advances. The privacy and human
touch issues are important. Partially these problems
may be solved with a good product design.
There is an encouraging history of Finnish design
so this may be an important strength of the Finnish
industry. It should be noted that the design
should not indicate the weaknesses of the user.
Additionally the operation of the systems should
be intuitive and not add any load on the memory
and cognitive capabilities of the users. The systems
must also tolerate some misuse and adapt to
the capabilities of the user. These kind of adaptive
systems reduce considerably the workload of service
organisations.

0
One important problem is how to keep a proper
level of hygiene in the living environment and the
person already slightly demented and/or suffering
from some physical incapability. The cleaning
of homes and washing of people requires a
large amount of physical work. A proper design
of bathrooms is important. Standard bathtubs are
generally not usable without additional features.
Showers are suitable for people who are capable
to move by themselves but when additional help
is needed these are no longer practical.
Routine cleaning at homes may be partially done
with robots. Air cleaners reduce amounts of dust
and even microbes and therefore, reduce also
some cleaning work. In any case, the problems
related to hygiene are still unsolved and innovative
solutions are urgently needed.
Even though the amount of workforce is decreasing
the need of human contact will never
decrease. There is only a limited capability of
technological solutions to help in this respect.
The efforts should be invested in a reduction of
routine bureaucratic and physical work in order
to free vital resources to provide a proper level of
personal care.
Home care decision makers’ opinion on future trends in care sector
% of decision makers stating “likely to be common within five to ten years”
(weighted according to market share)
46
46
49
64
74
78
93
20 40 60 80 100
Older people contact healthcare
provider via picture-based services
Passive alarm sestems in the clients
home will automatically alert the care provider
Vital sata of client will be remotely
monitoret
Mobile staff transmit data on the spot with
portable computer
Shared electronis care records will become
accessible by authorised parties
People in need of care will be members
of on-line self groups
Internet will be an important means of
information on health an care issues
© SeniorWatch
Figure 4.15. Conclusions regarding to the future adoption of technologies in health care.
Source: Seniorwatch
4.4 Roadmap
The use of technology in health and social care in
Finland is not as effective as it should be. ICT has
increased the productivity in industry and in
some services like banking considerably. Regrettably,
this has not been happening in public services.
There are many projects going on and a
considerable amount of money and effort has
been invested in poorly managed operations.
The poor organisation and tight budget of the
public social and health care sectors do not permit
well managed pilot studies. Even project based
extra funding does not help because there are not
people capable of investing sufficient time and effort
in piloting. In addition to this, practical tests
of a new radical idea also assume changes in the
practises of the organisation. This requires some
extra resources available within the organisation.
It is well known that these resources do not exist.
The silent (tacit) information of the organisation
cannot be extracted and apply in the improvements
of the ideas and new products. The results
of the Delphi questionnaire indicated that the specialists
rate Finland to be at the average level in
use of the advanced technology and at the level of
47

health services. This is because there are not
proper resources, motivation and management to
adopt new practices and products.
Before any significant progress can be expected
the present situation must be analysed.
The obvious weaknesses must be openly recognised
and the necessary strategic choices must
be made. An understanding of the operation of
the health care system is still at a very low level.
Now the change due to the aging will take place
within the next 10 years. That is fast compared
to the time constants involved in the system.
The institutional public health care will react
slowly so the fastest and probably the most cost
effective operations can be made outside the institutions.
The health continuum concept includes
the tight relationship between the operations
to support a healthy life style and the costs
of institutional health care. The institutional care
will be replaced by home care and special senior
housing with tailored services. This trend is visible
for example in the USA as shown in Figure
4.16.
Preventive operations will be more and more important.
This situation generates some good business
opportunities: Health food manufacturers,
48
fitness clubs, home care monitors, ubiquitous
systems, peer group organizers and various
co-operatives may find new concepts which may
be marketed internationally.
One important pioneer enterprise is already going
on in Finland. This is the senior house “Loppukiri”,
where the inhabitants by themselves take
care of all the necessary daily tasks. The workload
is divided according to the ability of each individual.
Help from outsiders is used only in such
tasks which exceeds the capabilities of the inhabitants.
The funding of the research and development
projects should depend on how well they can
expect to support the health continuum concept.
The scientific basis of projects should be
sound and the research is more related on implementation
and demonstration of cost effectiveness.
The problem has been recognised and some operations
have already been started. One new approach
which has been raised some positive expectations
is the initiative to collect strategic
groups around selected segments of the Finnish
industry. The concept is still vague and the coop-
Figure 4.16. Development in Washington, USA. State-supported nursing home beds
have not kept pace with the growth of the population aged 85 and above. However,
increasingly the elderly population is being served by in-home and community-based
programs. Source: Access Washington

Figure 4.17. The roadmap for preparation for the challenges of the aging society
eration between the groups is not well managed.
The worst case scenario is that a new organisation
level has been created to further make the
funding of research and development more fragmented
and uncoordinated. There is an unchallenged
belief in the ability of named organizations
and committees to create new innovations
from nothing. How we can get rid of this devastating
belief of the superior capabilities of organisations?
The funding of R&D must be increased
considerably and it should be addressing
new ideas which change the established
ways of operating. The present way to support
the projects only if they are accepted by the established
companies will not lead to the positive
goal that is desired.
There are some necessary operations to be
made to respond to the future challenges. These
are summarized as a roadmap shown in Figure
4.17.
4.5 Conclusions
Finland has a risk to fall into both an economical
as well as a demographical trap. The current innovation
mechanisms are ineffective and clumsy.
The population is aging rapidly and the leaders
hesitate. The situation demands that real actions
are started immediately. Otherwise the future capability
to take care for aged people and to prosper
from a health economy will no longer exist in
Finland’s bleak future.
The health continuum should be adopted – the
operations of preventive health care are fast to
take into practice and very cost effective.
The present status of the situation must be analyzed
and the decisions should be made to turn
the recognized threats into opportunities. An
overarching plan to exploit the opportunities
must be made.
49

The funding of research and development must
be increased and targeted to development of solutions
to these impending problems. The public
organisations must have resources to pilot these
new solutions and the employees should have
strong motivation to contribute the development.
The health and social care sector has the potential
to be one of the future growth businesses of Finnish
service and manufacturing industry. The
products integrate IT, design and application
knowledge. The necessary components already
exist for Finland’s future greatness – we should
not strangle creativity in its infancy by putting it
in a straitjacket.
50
References
Pekka Parkkinen: Väestön ikääntymisen vaikutukset
kuntatalouteen, VATT tutkimuksia 136, 2008
Suvi Mäklin, Pekka Rissanen:Syöpien aiheuttamat
kustannukset, Suomen syöpäjärjestöjen julkaisuja
no. 67, 2006
Eero Pukkala, Risto Sankila, Matti Rautalahti: Syöpä
Suomessa 2006, Suomen Syöpäyhdistysten jukaisuja
no. 71, 2006

5 Towards energy and material efficient society
Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva Oy and
Irmeli Mikkonen, Motiva Oy
Panel chairman
Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva Oy
Panel members
Reetta Anderson, YTV Waste Management
Erja Heino, the Finnish Association for
Nature Conservation
Mikael Hildén, Finnish Environment Institute
Helka Julkunen, WWF
Pentti Lahtinen, Ramboll Finland Oy
Tarja Laine, Uusimaa Regional Environment
Centre
Irmeli Mikkonen, Motiva Oy
Jussi Mykkänen, Vaisala Oyj
Aleksi Neuvonen, Demos Helsinki
Raija Pikku-Pyhältö, Tekes
Jyri Seppälä, SYKE
Eero Siitonen, Inesco Oy
Risto Talja, Metso Paper Oyj
Harri Turpeinen, Neste Oil Oyj
5.1 Introduction
The focus of the work in the Society based on energy
and material efficiency panel was on meticulous
and economical use of resources. Those include
the management of environmental impacts
during the product’s value chain, and the competitive
edge achieved as the global regulation becomes
more strict, and that of the changes in the
supply and prices of energy and resources. Important
aspects to be included are also societal aspects
in use and reuse of materials and energy:
lifestyles, cultural issues, motivation, costs and
global aspects. The society based on energy and
material efficiency is also strongly linked to understanding
of ecosystems, environmental management
and infrastructure, energy production,
energy and material efficiency as well as industrial
structure, logistics and mobility, and intelligent
technology solutions.
Global situation, difference in resources, poverty
and economical development and their impact
were widely discussed. The global trends have
become quite local also and affect individual regions
and countries differently. Finland’s standpoint
and role in global environment became the
leading issue and the work was done from that respect.
Finland’s dependency as an exporter on the
global economy and market supports the global
aspect and on the other hand the global viewpoint
supports Finland’s angle towards export markets.
The target was set to envisage Finland as society
and Finland’s competitiveness on global market.
How Finland will manage in the economic competition?
Finland’s economy is largely based on
process industry products on global market. On
the other hand Finland has limited natural resources,
relatively clean nature and the country is
sparsely populated with no large metropolises.
Increasingly available IC-technology, novel business
concepts and new materials, but also mobility
requirements, increasing demand but also insufficiency
of energy sources and the threats
caused by the climate change are key aspects
from the Finnish perspective, too.
Certain aspects, less important from the Finnish
perspective, like water resources, clean water and
global land use, were left out.
It was agreed that the foresight goal needs to be
far enough in terms of time as in energy field the
infrastructure is very slow to change and investments
are commonly made for about 50 years, the
planning and decisions for 20 years ahead are being
made now. The time-span for trends and drivers
was set to 2050, and for specific measures the
goal was set to 2020.
The panel working on this issue had members
from versatile sectors of society. They come from
51

process and energy industry, research institutes,
regional planning, waste management organisations,
companies and NGOs. All the panellists are
experts in their field working on energy, environmental
and material issues.
There are several sources of information to obtain
studies and report on the issue, but in this work
none of those were used as reference materials.
Rather, the work is based on the panellists’ experience
and expertise, which, coming from people
of different sectors in different roles, complemented
to the discussion and results of the work.
5.2 The foreseen changes in
the operational environment
The most important phenomena in the background
scenario are global economy increase;
Finland’s economy increase and ability to adapt;
and global integration and cooperation versus
isolation and economic and political blocks.
Identification of key trends and
drivers
The overall key driver is climate change. How
much, how soon and in what extent will the climate
change affect is still uncertain. The panel
was quite unanimous that the role of climate
change will be significant but the severity and impacts
are not known yet.
The most important individual drivers coming up
in the process are the use, insufficiency and price
of energy and natural resources. Those are regarded
as one driver due to their interdependency.
However, the severity of insufficiency remains
uncertain.
Regulation is a significant driver, but it has not
achieved global commitment; on global level it is
still non-existing. Future development and direction
of global commitment on regulation are still
uncertain.
Other drivers, though still uncertain, are
Political decision making and leadership
(legislation, regulations)
52
Consumption behaviour and attitudes of both
companies and consumers Link between economic
development and consumption
Global superpowers and their competition.
In general people’s attitudes are pro environment
but don’t often enough lead to environmentally
sound consumption behaviour, which makes
them a bigger uncertainty rather than a positive
driver.
Future scenarios
The panelists discussed in groups possible futures
and strategic options and came up with the
following three scenario options for further process:
1. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources
along with political decision making favouring
sustainable development
2. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources
along with sustainable consumption behaviour
3. Political decision making favouring sustainable
development along with sustainable consumption
behaviour.
In more detailed scrutiny of the scenarios the second
option turned out to be too theoretical and unlikely,
although interesting option driven by the
citizens. As it included several important points
of interest and was merged with the option 3. The
two scenario options chosen for further processing
are:
A. Insufficiency of energy and natural resources
along with political decision making favouring
sustainable development
B. Political decision making favouring sustainable
development along with sustainable consumption
behaviour
The future in the two scenario options was reflected
to the foreseen future world in 2050, how
to get there and how Finland would fit in that
world. Both options predict that in the 2050 world
material and energy recycling is common and
valued. Prices of energy and raw materials will
increase also.

In the scenario A there will be a global crisis
which leads to political pressure and to strong
economical regulation and institutional control.
General attitudes and capacity building favour
life-cycle consciousness of products and services
Also nationalism will increase and the social responsibility
of companies regresses. Finland as a
small nation is quick in decision making and becomes
a model country of sustainable development.
Companies adapt to existing situation and
serenity in the society prevails.
Sustainability favouring politics in scenario B
leads to improved infrastructure; dense living environment,
efficient public transport and good
IT-infrastructure. Also education towards sustainability
is favoured. The sustainability thinking
is a result of a catastrophe (e.g. natural disaster).
That brings along substantial increase in energy
and environment awareness, and global decision
making in that respect.
Finland’s position in this option is similar to the
one of option A. The infrastructure becomes
more centralised, there’s consensus in the society,
and more immigrants are welcomed to Finland.
Finland exports high quality material and
energy efficiency and IT solutions.
Different paths lead to similar needs
Political threats in the society lead to increasingly
important roles of preparedness for crisis and security
of supply. Dependency on global politics
and balance affects all countries but has the most
serious impacts on the less developed ones.
Natural disasters, catastrophes have less impact
on all societies and will not necessarily lead to social
crisis. Floods, exceptionally dry seasons, and
notable changes in temperatures and seasons are
commonly referred as impacts of climate change.
The attitudes and thinking of the future becomes
more and more pro environment among people
and thus also affects to political decision making
on national but also on global level.
Both a severe global crisis bringing along harsh
regulation and strict institutional control in the
society, and disasters leading to sustainable deci-
sion making will tackle the problems of insufficiency
of material resources and energy.
Insufficiency of resources leads to price increases
and failures in deliveries of e.g. metals, and other
raw materials for industry. Water and food deliveries
affect people directly. Whilst the everyday
life of the people is affected directly or indirectly
by the lack of resources or deliveries, the local
community becomes more important. Both in society
and in single families the insufficiency of
resources is evident which leads to regulation of
e.g. energy use and better or stronger control.
When the society through a compulsion becomes
more authoritative and increases public ownership
and regulation the slowdown of economic
development is evident for a while. The knowhow
and capacity building will take a new turn as
high-level administrative capacity and other
skills are in demand.
Sustainable values in society rule out excess consumption
and focus will be on life’s necessities.
Life becomes poorer in materials but recycling,
renovation and reuse compensate. Life becomes
also local. Local isolated communities might,
however, also bring along racism. Simultaneously
the reuse-repair society needs craftsmen
as professionals but also as entrepreneurs.
Travelling and commuting will decrease as the
communities become denser and need for travelling
is compensated by virtual services. Also
working life changes, working at home increases
and new, small businesses are established.
Sustainable politics and consumption behaviour
through evident threat of climate change requires
a dense society in terms of infrastructure and efficient
services. Regulation and control increase
and e.g. strict building codes create new forms for
communities. Intelligent building systems enable
several options for use, better services and new
working methods.
Transport and commuting change as public transport
and non-motorised commuting become
more attractive, telecommuting increases and logistics
improve. Modal shift from road to rail
53

changes the need for private cars and changes the
travelling behaviour towards more local travel..
Service sector brings along more working opportunities
as do the IT solutions and services. Local
services for food production are also in increase.
Needs, challenges and opportunities
There are, however, several needs, uncertainties
and challenges that the society, in this case Finland,
will face through the change. The economy
might be in turmoil as the administration becomes
more bureaucratic and more expensive.
Centralised control in the society brings along
many needs and challenges.
Many of the challenges can also be turned into
opportunities. Stronger administration and control
need skilled personnel and capacity building
needs to be increased. At the same time employment
in administration improves but maintaining
heavy institutional control is expensive. Whilst
the central administration is strong people need
local unity and regional and local communities
become more valuable.
Revenue generation strategy faces new opportunities
as rural areas need local services. State regulations
on dense, concentrated urban infrastructure
and transport prevail, but on local level the communities
become important bodies. Bringing all public
services to local level calls for investments.
The values in the society strengthen equal treatment
of all, liberality and equity. The government
steering is strong and faces visionary challenges.
As the society is quite isolated it must solve the
problem how to treat the immigrants and deal
with their adaptation to the society. Understanding
of the multicultural society and learning
through virtual experiences challenge the nation.
The economy faces new challenges to meet the
new society’s needs, and traditional industrial
products and services might not be in demand any
more. Finland’s economy has been based on process
and heavy metal industry, which might be in
54
danger if raw materials and energy prices go up
and deliveries fail. The industry needs to develop
more efficient energy and material solutions. Recycling,
renovation and reuse of products become
more attractive options. Investments in development
of new materials and material and energy
efficiency solutions will accumulate to novel designs
and services for export market. Finland becomes
a front runner in planning of material and
energy efficient, sustainable and repairable and
easily serviced products on global markets.
At the same time the IC technology will have a
larger foothold in the society but the technology
needs to be developed to the desired level. New,
advanced IC technology will facilitate the
operability of the society for telecommuting, communication
and services. On a family level the information
technology takes a lead over people’s
choices and virtual experience products are in demand.
The information technology needs labour
as well and expertise and new skills call for further
training and capacity building. Finland has an opportunity,
and a need, to develop novel technology
concepts and services for global market.
Energy production and energy use need to be
more local, which challenges energy supply and
production methods. There is need for new energy
solutions and fuels to compensate the conventional
ones. Energy production will be largely
based on micro-generation using waste and renewable
sources.
Probable shortage of energy might lead to restricted
use of heating and electricity use in buildings. That
challenges the industry to develop new more efficient
energy products, low-energy systems and energy
and material efficient design and planning. Potential
lower room temperatures challenge also e.g.
clothing design and manufacturing - can the lower
room temperatures be compensated with intelligent
clothing materials and solutions? Cold climate
technology faces opportunities in developing new
solutions for increasing demand.
In densely structured communities buildings are
high tech and intelligent. The building codes are
strict and call for detailed reporting. Dense infra-

structure will force to build higher buildings. Energy
efficient and intelligent building solutions
will facilitate use of new building materials as
well as multiple purposes for buildings. Intelligent
buildings provide opportunities for telecommuting.
Work has become more information concentrated,
and telecommuting is popular and supported.
Transport of goods and peoples’commuting
and their increasing needs will change the
transport infrastructure. That results in decreased
use of private cars, increased popularity of public
transport, non-motorised transport and car-sharing
and leasing. Public transport has to offer new
mobility options, also for the disabled ones.
Modal shift from road to rail is evident as rail
transport presents a more ecologically efficient
and economical option. Logistics systems and
services development require large investments
and inputs in logistics management and training.
As infrastructure will be more dense and concentrated,
it might lead to isolated areas elsewhere as
services and work places move in centres. On the
other hand that allows new opportunities to new
service businesses and entrepreneurs.
Food supply will face new challenges as deliveries
might fail and the society calls for local food
production. Also, fresh and clean water reserves
might be in danger. Will peoples shopping and
eating habits change? Increased local food production
becomes necessary. Ecologically produced
products are in demand, because the importance
to cut CO 2 emissions in food production
and distribution are in favour. Vast variety of related
local services, e.g. home delivery, catering,
restaurant take-out, will be developed and improved
to meet the new demands.
The new dense, community based, IT concentrated
society allows people more free time. The
sustainable choices don’t allow much travelling
and on the other hand the work is static lacking
physical efforts. In their free time people favour
local travelling, camping and hiking. Virtual hobbies
and intelligent IC technology present new
opportunities for people.
5.3 Setting of a vision and
strategic goals and
identification of
the actions needed to
achieve the goals
The scenario work brought up several opportunities
for Finland to learn and take advantage of the
possible changes, the unique location of the
country, natural resources and climate, and the
highly educated population to be competent on
global markets. There was common understanding
that Finland’s strengths are in energy and material
efficiency products and services; renewable
energy, especially bioenergy solutions; IT solutions
and services; and highly educated people.
The vision for 2050 was commonly agreed on
those principles:
Innovative Finland interprets to environmental
sustainability, people’s welfare and economical
success. The key elements of that are top level energy
and material efficient solutions and services.
In Finland there are internationally leading
professionals and export companies in these
sectors.
To achieve the vision of 2050 Finland, some definitions
and pre-requisitions must be taken into
consideration:
Attitudes must change towards energy and
environmental sustainability
Green-house gas and climate change challenges
must be taken seriously in all levels
Environmental competence throughout all
sectors must be improved
Economical aspects of sustainability are
important for maintaining competitiveness
Being a fore-runner on chosen sectors is essential
Directives and regulation must support the
development
Finnish society is globally competent in
sustainable use of resources.
55

Roadmaps to achieve the goals
The panel discussed the strategic goals and alternative
solutions and actions to achieve the goals
set in the vision. Altogether eight main solutions
were identified of which five were chosen for further
process. Those all are based on Finland’s opportunities
and strengths. They have impact to the
whole society while they also include specific solutions
for Finland’s future competence and economical
competiveness on global markets.
Spatial planning, housing and
transport
The spatial planning aims at dense and mixed urban
structure with well functioning rail transport.
In the urban communities distances to work, services
and recreational areas are close to home.
Finland will be globally competent in producing
public transport solutions and products, and
low-energy, material and energy efficient products
and services.
To achieve these goals, set for the year 2020, Finland
needs to invest in research, development and
innovation (R&D&I) activities, education and
56
Support for new
practices
Solutions
Societal basis
Energy and material efficiency – Vision and goals
Demand for systematic
innovations and new
practices
Understanding of the
sustainable use of energy
and materials
Models for regulating
and measuring energy
and material efficiency
over the life cycle
New practices for energy and
material efficiency in communities
and society
Energy and material
efficiency solutions for
current activities
Crisis or
change in attitudes
Demand for energy and
material efficient solutions
Higher energy and raw
material prices
Innovative Finland
interprets to environmental
sustainability, people’s welfare
and economical success.
The key elements of that are top
level energy and material efficient
solutions and services. In
Finland there are internationally
leading professionals and
export companies in these
sectors.
TIME 2050
Figure 5.1. Vision for Finland in 2050
capacity building in the sectors and provide appropriate
and sufficient regulation and support
mechanisms. The main trends and drivers to
achieve the goals include aging population,
changing basis of wellbeing and happiness but
also the current urban structure together with
need to reduce energy consumption and decrease
of CO 2 emissions. Novel ICT solutions also present
good opportunities for the change.
The central solutions presented in the table above
can be supported by developing energy and material
efficiency indicators and monitoring and
life-cycle systems for spatial planning and land
use. Legislation and specific regulations towards
energy and material efficient buildings and components
must be improved. Public transport services
must be improved and one option for that
direction is to develop sustainable pricing systems
in mobility and transport sector.
There are also challenges and barriers to achieve
the goals. Living in a dense urban environment
might become too expensive. On the other hand
the standard of living might increase to the level
where excess consumption and wasteful lifestyle
become common on sustainability’s expense.

Why?
Drivers
and
trends
What?
Central
solutions
How?
– skills
– practices
– co-operation
Changing basis of
wellbeing and
happiness
Renovation of existing
houses and areas
Finnish lifestyle might not remain unchanged
where private car use is excessive and families
have single-family houses and summer houses.
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised
in Figure 5.2.
Energy and material efficiency of
industrial production
In the year 2020 Finland will be a top exporter of
energy and material efficient products and services.
There will be internationally leading Finnish
manufacturers and exporters on the global market
in certain sectors: forest and metal industry, alternative
transport fuels, water purification technology
and IC technology. Some areas of chemical
industry could also be Finland’s strengths. Finland’s
strength is based on long experience and
know-how in energy intensive process and metal
industry which facilitates new business areas in
smart processes and management of material and
energy flows.
Spatial planning, housing and transport
ICT solutions and
telepresence for work
Energy and material efficiency
indicators and life cycle models
for urban spatial planning
R&D&I and
investments in
public transport
Pressure to minimi
energy consumptio
and CO emissions (and
2
hence pressure on
current low density
urban structures)
Smart low energy homes
(also for export)
Tax incentives and
regulation for
housing and transport
Aging
R&D&I activities for
developing energy and
material efficient housing
Energy and material efficient services
e.g. retailing, waste management,
car sharing etc.
Public transport systems
Use of waste energy
e.g. from waste water
ICT solutions
R&D&I activities for
developing energy and
material efficient services
Housing regulation
Figure 5.2. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of spatial planning,
housing and transport
If the goal is achieved production volumes will
increase. Business opportunities in service sector
improve as research and capacity building develop.
IC technology solutions will be utilised
substantially more also in energy efficiency sector
and need for travelling is compensated by digital
services. On the other hand global prices of
raw materials increase due to insufficiency of
supply. There’s also increasing need to move for
work opportunities.
To achieve the goal the competence must be ensured
by investing in basic research and improving
vocational education of experts as well as
supporting entrepreneurship. Investments in
R&D&I for activities in material and energy efficient
industry as well as support mechanisms for
commercialization of new innovations. Material
and energy efficient solutions should be supported
with lower taxation than the conventional
ones. Indicator and life-cycle systems for material
and energy efficiency industrial products
must be developed.
57

The main drivers in the sector are increased energy
and material prices and need to cut the CO 2
emissions. Global competition forces Finland to
take a new turn in industrial production especially
in the energy intensive process technology
due to isolated location and globalised market.
Regulation presents new challenges also. IC technology
offers a good platform to develop new solutions
and services on global market.
There are some uncertainties or challenges that
need to overcome to achieve the goals. The education
system fails to improve according to the
needs and support for entrepreneurship lacks.
There must also be courage to change the existing
industrial structure on time. EU regulation
might become an obstacle for competition in
global perspective. Radical changes in global
politics or economy might steer the development
elsewhere.
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised
in Figure 5.3.
58
Why?
Drivers
and
trends
What?
Central
solutions
How?
– skills
– practices
– co-operation
Higher energy prices
and pressure toward
lowering CO2
emissions
Energy and material efficiency in industry
Globally competitive energy and
material efficient products
Understanding and
management of energy and
material flows
Energy and material efficiency
indicators and life cycle models
for industrial products
Support mechanism
for energy and
material efficiency
in R&D projects
Global competition
Standards and public
procurement
Regulation and
potential unequal
regulation
environment
Regulation that supports energy
and material efficiency
(positive feedback)
R&D&I activities for
developing energy and
material efficient industry
Smart processes
Basic research e.g. on
material and energy
flows
ICT
Energy and material
efficient services
Support for
commercialisation, e.g. pilot
processes, entrepreneurship
Education for
experts in process
engineering,
chemistry etc.
Figure 5.3. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of energy and
material efficiency in industry
Energy production – CO 2 and small
scale
The target is to maintain sufficient energy production
to ensure equal welfare of people. In the year
2020 there’s a 30% reduction of CO 2 emissions
and use of natural resources in energy production,
and everyone has an equal opportunity to use energy.
Local energy production is important to ensure
security of supply and local independency.
Local energy production is possible by utilising
passive solar energy and passive cooling. Waste as
energy source will present opportunities for local
production. New alternative technologies, e.g.
small-scale bioenergy and solar heating and electricity
solutions for energy generation will be developed.
Infrastructure and electricity distribution
systems support local small-scale production.
The local production requires specific support
mechanisms, e.g. feed-in tariffs, and renewed taxation
systems from the government. Also housing
regulation needs to be developed. The small-scale

Why?
Drivers
and
trends
What?
Central
solutions
How?
– skills
– practices
– co-operation
Climate change and
pressure for lower CO
emissions. Global
regulation of Co2
energy production infrastructure must be understood
to facilitate proper distribution and logistics
systems. Investments in R&D&I activities ensure
development of new systems and services.
The central drivers are based on need to improve
energy production more efficient and reduce CO 2
emissions. Climate change requires actions to reduce
CO 2 emissions and CO 2tax on energy production
is evident. Efficient use of resources, e.g.
waste energy, is an effective driver. Security of
supply must be ensured with local production.
Small-scale solutions are essential in rural areas.
There are several obstacles to achieve the target.
Global CO 2 taxation might not be implemented
in some countries and hinders sustainable production
methods’ development. Development of
novel renewable energy production technologies
might suffer from increased amount of nuclear
power production. If energy consumption increases
substantially the advantages of low emission
production might be lost.
Energy production – CO and small scale
2
Use of ”waste” heat
Specific support
mechanisms
(e.g. feed-in tariffs)
2
Need for security of
supply
Use of passive cooling
Better understanding of the pros
and cons of small scale systems
(e.g. ccs, distribution, logistics)
Energy taxation that
takes CO into account
2
Efficient use of
resources, including
waste
Electricity distribution and
other infrastructure systems
support small scale production
Use of passive solar heat
Understanding of local
energy resources
Need for small scale
heat and power
production systems
in less densely
populated and rural
areas
Technologies for small scale
bio, solar etc. electricity
and heat
R&D&I activities for developing small
scale energy systems
Housing regulation
Figure 5.4. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of energy production
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised
in Figure 5.4.
Sustainable use of resources and
materials
The target for sustainable use of resources and
materials was set for year 2010. Sustainable use is
in line with the current trend of limited supply of
resources and materials. Sustainable use of materials
and resources covers the essential resources
for Finnish industry. Forest based raw-materials
of pulp and paper industry and wood energy production;
biomass and peat for energy production,
minerals and water resources. Sustainability in
material and resources use is still underdeveloped
and provides several possibilities for new solutions
and businesses.
The most important solutions towards sustainability
are increased recycling and reuse of materials
and products, utilization of waste and side
flows in processes. Industrial ecology principles
59

provide new production solutions and innovations.
Holistic planning of natural resources through the
whole life-cycle produces new services and systems
in industry.
Basic research on material and energy flows and
understanding of material life-cycle models must
be in place. National and international regulation
must be supportive to recycling and re-use of
products. New criteria and methods and technologies
for sustainable use of materials need to be
developed and local social and economical
sustainability need models. Realistic understanding
of the exploitation potential of natural resources
can be achieved through education and
research. It’s also important to use the utilized resources
to the fullest, e.g. through collaboration
with other industries.
The main drivers for sustainable use of materials
are globally increasing demand for energy and
raw-materials and at the same time the resources
are limited. That leads to price increase. Uncon-
60
Why?
Drivers
and
trends
What?
Central
solutions
How?
– skills
– practices
– co-operation
Sustainable use of resources and material
Ingreasing demand for energy
and other natural resources
globally
Utilisation of side flows
and waste
Technologies that support efficient
use of the natural resources
Understanding of available natural
resources and sustainable consumption
level n Finland and globally
Limited resources and higher
prices
Holistic planning of the whole lifecycle of
natural resources in different industries
Increased recycling
Criteria and models for
sustainable use of materials
Basic research e.g. on
material and energy
flows
Damage to the environment
Industrial ecology
Models for social and
economic sustainability
locally
Regulation that
supports re-use and
recycling
Figure 5.5. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of sustainable use of
resources and material
trolled use of energy and materials and waste production
are harmful for the environment.
Sustainable uses of resources might be questionable
if the environmental impacts of the process
exceed the benefits. Sustainable actions must ensure
the continuation of local employment and
businesses.
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised
in Figure 5.5.
Environmental competence and
management of the society
A sustainable society ensures that basic education
and competence levels are good and regulative
measures ensure active development. The target
for those was set for 2010. The goal is to increase
Finnish exports and that calls for competent expertise
also in political decision making and in public
and private sectors to facilitate the implementation
of actions. Central solutions to achieve the target

Why?
Drivers
and
trends
What?
Central
solutions
How?
– skills
– practices
– co-operation
are competent skills for energy and material efficiency
activities which ensure competence and
competitiveness of the industries. Regulation and
procurement methods must be efficient and effective.
For the implementation the society needs to
support peoples’ wellbeing and happiness.
The competence can be ensured by investing substantially
in education and training energy and
material efficiency to all, from primary schools to
advanced and continuing education at work. Primary
education is insufficient and too slow to
bring change and improvement in competence
and therefore the capacity building has to cover
the whole society at the same time. Basic research
on material and energy efficiency must be
invested in, and new regulations and support
mechanisms must be developed accordingly.
Regulation and support for procurement test beds
and commercialization, e.g. pilot processed and
entrepreneurship, risk funding, are needed. There
need be new life-cycle models and indicators to
monitor energy and material efficiency as well.
Environmental skills and management in society
Climate change and limited
resources
Efficient and effective
regulation and procurement
Regulation and
procurement test beds
Basic skills for everyone
– primary education
Globalisation and
more complex and
wider networks
Competitive industries
Skills for energy and material efficient activities
Energy and material efficiency
indicators and life cycle models
Basic research e.g. on material and
energy efficiency and market
regulation and support mechanisms
Need for political decisions
and regulation
Support to wellbeing and
happiness
Support for commercialisation, e.g.
pilot processes, entrepreneurship
Education and energy and
material efficiency skills in
many disciplines
Figure 5.6. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of environmental
skills and control in society
Attitudes and behaviour changes are essential
and those don’t happen without sufficient information,
e.g. through education, best practices and
evidence of benefits both in terms of sustainability
and economy.
The main drivers, which however might also turn
out to be obstacles when failing, are based on improved
competence throughout the society. Economical
and administrative control to right direction
is essential and that calls for improved competence
and skills from the decision makers to
make educated decisions. Encouraging regulative
measures speed up the development. Climate
change and limited resources are effective drivers
for improving competence in the society. Globalisation
requires new skills and expertise to
manage in the economical competition. Wider
and more complex professional and economical
networks need new skilled people.
The drivers, solutions and actions are summarised
in Figure 5.6.
61

5.4 Roadmap to society based
on energy and material
efficiency
There must be a genuine, common will to develop
the society into sustainable direction. That, in the
first place, means legislation and regulations that
support the activity. International cooperation in
regulative measures as well as in political decision
creates the foundation for development of
energy and material efficient education, research,
technologies and application.
The following roadmap describes the central solutions
the means to achieve the solutions and main
drivers and trends for energy and material efficient
society. The solutions have already been described
in more detail in chapter 5.3 of this report.
Research and education
The key challenge is to improve and broaden the
education of energy, material and environmental
62
Why?
Drivers
and
trends
What?
Central
solutions
How?
– skills
– practices
– co-operation
Climate change, global
competition of energy
and other resources
Sustainable communities,
housing and everyday mobility
issues to cover all levels in the society. It is of outmost
importance to provide further training and
continuing education for those already in working
life in industry, service sector and public sector
including political decision makers, while
also providing primary and vocational education.
For vocational education there’s a need to invest
in areas critical for improvement of competence
in material and energy efficiency. Material and
energy efficiency should be integrated in various
sectoral curricula in order to produce competent
expertise for different sectors in society.
The interdependency of different sectors and
stakeholders is so strong in establishment of a
foundation and methods for sustainable society
in the near future that all stakeholders’ competence
and contribution must be included. Information
dissemination combined with training to
change attitudes and behaviour will complement
the specific education in all levels.
Entrepreneurship should be supported by providing
education and further training for companies.
Energy and material efficiency
Environmental skills and
control in society
R&D and education – skills for
creating solutions
Strategic will and
acceptance of
regulation
Pressure on traditional
way of life and doing
business due to global
integration
Criteria for
sustainability
Values and attitudes,
global politics
Energy production – Local small
scale production and CO 2
Change in values, attitudes
and behaviour
Sustainable use of resources
and materials
Indicators for
sustainability
Potential international
crisis
Energy and material
efficiency solutions for
major industrial clusters
Support for developing
energy and material
efficient solutions
Economic incentives
based on accepted
indicators
Figure 5.7. Summary of drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals

Another basis is to ensure strong and competent
basic and applied research in material and energy
efficiency to enable the industry to adapt
the research results and develop new business
opportunities. That calls for considerable resources
and investments in capacity building for
research.
Competent capacity of all stakeholders through
education and efficient R&D&I will support the
change. Efficient R&D&I mean open mind, active
dialog and flawless cooperation between universities
and research institutes, government organisations
and the industry. That cooperation could be
strengthened by developing an open innovation
environment for energy and material efficiency,
where all stakeholders could provide ideas and initiatives.
It would provide input to industry and
companies in development of a feedback instrument
for development of processes, systems and
services. The innovation environment would also
work to other direction by increasing motivation
and interest to improve new material and energy
efficiency activities and areas.
Indicators and monitoring systems
In developing and improving material and energy
efficiency it’s important to develop sufficient and
precise indicators and monitoring systems. Land
use and spatial planning need energy and material
efficiency indicators and monitoring systems to
follow e.g. CO 2 emissions. Life-cycle calculations
need to be supported also with indicators
and calculation methods.
Monitoring should provide easy to understand information
and positive messages; energy and material
efficiency is inexpensive, easy, and provides
stable comfort and more free time.
Indicators and monitoring methods are essential
for all sectors of society to justify the benefits and
cost efficiency of material and energy efficiency
activities, but also to improve the current systems
to meet the future needs.
Economical support mechanisms
The indicators give a basis to develop supporting
mechanisms and incentives for development and
implementation of energy and material efficiency
activities. Taxation is a strong incentive and
would suit well to support sustainable options.
Implementation of CO 2 tax comprehensively
calls for actions and agreements on international
(EU/OECD) level, and implementation of all parties.
Taxation on use of natural resources would
decrease excess use and also improve efficient
use of resources. Excess consumption could also
have its own tax to lead to reduced consumption
of resources and products.
Novel technology and applications could receive
special extra funding for energy and material efficiency
solutions in R&D support. Risk financing
and standardization enable to bring new technological
solutions and applications faster and easier
to the market. Commercialization of new systems
and products need support. Entrepreneurship
should be supported also by new and flexible
funding options and start funding.
Improving transport and mobility systems need
public support. Development of supportive pricing
systems for public transport and mobility
would increase the attractiveness of public transport.
One harsh option would be to cancel the tax
deduction for using private cars to work.
Energy and material efficient
technical solutions
Energy storage and distribution technology and systems
must be developed to avoid losses through the
process. Technology needs public support through,
e.g. investment and R&D support. Regional and local
waste recycling, processing and utilisation systems
can be developed to maximise the use of those
for energy production and new materials.
New inexpensive technological solutions for smallscale
production of solar, wind and bioenergy
(biogas, biodiesel) applications could ensure faster
63

market uptake. Those are important especially in
rural areas. Novel, inexpensive small-scale solutions
would fit well for export market.
Public transport services need to be developed to
better meet the consumers’ and society’s needs.
Better services increase the attractiveness of public
transport also.
There are, however, some barriers foreseen,
which might hinder or slow down the progress.
Carbon free energy production by nuclear power
might hinder the development and implementation
of new renewable energy solutions. Development
of renewable energy applications which
turn out to produce excess amounts of CO 2
through the life-cycle and use heavily natural resources
present a barrier also.
5.5 Conclusions and
recommendations
The roadmap presented in chapter 5.4 describes
well the future steps forward identifying the key
drivers, the central solutions how to reach the target
and the pre-requisites i.e. skills, practices and
changes needed to accommodate the solutions.
The proposed vision lies strongly on developing
and improving education and training on energy
and material efficiency comprehensively on all
levels, from primary education to continuing
training of professionals. In addition to education
research has strong foothold as well. Major
change in consumption behaviour and attitudes is
necessary and those can be achieved with the education
but also active information dissemination
and advice, demonstrating good examples and
economical benefits.
In order to bring the novel energy and material efficient
products and services to the market, strong
economical support and demonstration projects
are necessary. Policy makers and decision makers
must have strategic will and be committed to support
regulation with economic incentives towards
sustainable development.
64
Strengths and opportunities of
Finnish industry
Finland can best achieve the goals to develop new
industrial products and services for global market
by relying on the strengths today’s Finland has.
The basis lies on the industries, services and expertise
which are Finland’s strongest export products
today. The background is solid due to the
long experience of long-term energy efficiency
planning in several sectors.
Information and Communications
Technology ICT
Some of Finland’s best known export companies
operate in ICT sector. The ICT provides opportunities
for other sectors’ development and new
products in future. Easy communication, teleworking,
internet solutions and services accommodate
opportunities for new service products
and applications for Finnish companies on global
market.
Material and energy efficient products
and services
Finland is already one of the leading countries in
development of energy efficient services, e.g. energy
audit methodology. That expertise will be in
higher demand globally and facilitate also development
of new service products around that expertise.
Integrating material efficiency into energy
efficiency the services and products have
better competence on the global market.
Finland has developed a high competence in material
and energy efficiency. This expertise and
competence are Finland’s future export products.
Capacity building in energy and material efficiency
is in great demand in economies in transition
and developing countries.
Low-energy building applications and
services
Finnish construction industry has developed energy
efficient applications and solutions in the
building sector. Intelligent buildings are on the

market already. Intelligent renovation solutions,
new materials, insulation technologies and integrated
ICT solutions in buildings among many
are Finland’s future export products. Finnish
know-how of full concepts, design and planning
services and intelligent building products, all
those material and energy efficient of course, will
be in demand on global market.
This sector needs strong support for maintaining
the expertise and developing the products and
services for global market in the future.
Efficient processes
One of Finland’s strongest sectors has been energy
intensive process industry. In order to be
competent on the market the processes have been
developed energy and material efficient. That expertise
and experience is valuable in developing
new industries and products, but also as service
product on global market. Investments in developing
and productizing energy and material efficiency
service concepts and applications
strengthen Finland’s role in global competition.
Design
Finland is known for its designers and design industry.
New devices and appliances come to market
in ever increasing pace. New models follow
the previous ones in a few months’ time, demand
for new designs and attractive products is increasing.
Finland could generate a growing business of
design services and concepts on global market.
Small-scale energy production
applications
Finland is sparsely populated country in cold climate
zone. Development of energy production
systems in remote areas has been a necessity. The
technology has been developed alongside with
the larger-scale applications. Micro-generation
has been developed using different sources of energy,
however, in Finland bioenergy is naturally
the most important source. The small-scale appli-
cations suit well in other environments also and
could make a successful export product on global
market, especially in remote areas.
Recommendations
The main driving forces towards sustainable energy
and material efficient society are the climate
change and increasing competition on decreasing
energy supply. The threat of international crisis,
uncertainty of global politics and whether values
and attitudes support sustainability present new
challenges also. To reach the target of successful
and operational society based on material and energy
efficiency the following initiatives and actions
are recommended.
R&D and education
Comprehensive education and training on energy
and material efficiency for all. The biggest challenges
are in provision of continuing education
and training for all working force including policy
and decision makers, administration, private
and public sector services and industry. Primary
and vocational education is important also, material
and energy efficiency should be integrated in
curricula to produce competence in all sectors of
society. Information dissemination and behaviour
change training complement the specific education
on all levels.
Investing in stronger and more competent basis of
basic and applied research in material and energy
efficiency, and capacity building, enables the industry
to adapt the research results, demonstrate
the findings and develop new business opportunities.
Competent capacity of all stakeholders and efficient
R&D&I will support the change. Efficient
R&D&I mean open mind, active dialog and flawless
cooperation between universities and research
institutes, government organisations and
the industry.
65

Change in values, attitudes and
behaviour
Education and understanding are the key elements
to more conscious and sustainable energy
behaviour. Investment in financial and human resources
for information dissemination (means,
channels), advice, and demonstrations is crucial
to achieve results in attitude or behaviour change.
Repetition and continuing, long-perspective
work are the central means to bring the message
forward. On more concrete level demonstration
of economical benefits of energy and material efficiency
together with right targeted messages
bring success in long run.
Indicators and monitoring systems for
sustainability
Development of indicators suitable to measure
and monitor energy and material efficiency (CO 2,
life-cycle calculations) is important to present the
results but also to further develop the current systems.
Monitoring needs to provide easily understandable
information and positive messages: energy
and material efficiency is inexpensive, easy
and economically beneficial.
Indicators and monitoring methods are essential
to justify the investments, benefits and cost-efficiency
of material and energy efficiency actions.
Economical support instruments
Indicators provide information in monitoring the
effect of different support instruments. Legislation,
regulations as well as different incentives
and taxation shall be in line with the sustainability
goals. Sustainability supporting taxation
is a powerful tool and fits well as incentive to support
sustainable options. Implementation of CO 2
tax comprehensively on international level calls
for international dialog and agreements.
New energy and material efficient technology
and applications should have a priority for R&D
66
support and market incentives, e.g. risk financing.
Production and marketing of energy and material
efficient products should have extra support
to lower the risk of companies.
Public support, e.g. subvented pricing, for public
transport and other sustainable mobility options
would increase their attractiveness.
Energy and material efficient technical
solutions
Energy storage and distribution technology and
systems need be developed to avoid losses
through the process. Technology needs public
support through, e.g. investment and R&D support.
Regional and local waste recycling, processing
and utilisation systems can be developed
to maximise the use of those for energy production
and new materials.
New inexpensive technological solutions for
small-scale production of solar, wind and
bioenergy (biogas, biodiesel) applications could
ensure faster market uptake. Those are important
especially in rural areas. Public transport services
need to be developed to better meet the consumers’
and society’s needs.
Strategic will on all levels
Strategic will towards sustainability is the core of
the development. It must be independent of political
and financial aspects and interests. The strategy
towards energy and material efficient society
must be long-term, continuously updated and developed
and continuing process. Strategic will is
as important on political level as in companies.
Strategic will towards sustainability facilitates
the basis (resources and means) for development
of education, R&D, information dissemination,
development of indicators for sustainability, economic
incentives and support for developing energy
and material efficient technical solutions.

6 Delphi survey
Alina Pathan and Mikko Syrjänen,
Gaia Consulting Ltd
6.1 Survey themes and
respondents
The objective of the Delphi-survey was to give an
input to the roadmap work by producing a
timeline of possible solutions created by technology
and other potential innovations. The first
draft set of statements were partly formulated on
the basis of previous Japanese Delphi study and
partly modified into and complemented with
statements that emphasized societal aspects more
than technology. The statements were then commented
first within Tekes and after a revision by
the panel members. The survey request was sent
to the panel members and to the email mailing
lists of selected Tekes technology program participants.
The Delphi survey consisted of background and
theme specific questions. The respondents were
able to answer to one or more of the three themes.
The themes and number of respondents per theme
were as follows:
Consumers, media and digital convergence
(48 respondents)
Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging
society (42 respondents)
Society based on energy and material
efficiency (46 respondents).
Each theme consisted of 3–6 areas presented below,
which included statements related to technological
or other solutions and their social application
or impact. For each statement, respondents
were requested to express their opinion on the
timing of the technical solutions and its social application.
Time of technical realization refers to
the time when the technology, approach or solu-
tion is ready at technical level. In the case of
non-technological innovations this means that
the organizational models, processes etc. have
been developed. Time of social application refers
to the time when the technology or other solution
is on the market and in use as a ready, competitive
product or the solutions is otherwise commonly
used. Unless otherwise stated the application refers
to the use of this technology or solution in
Finland.
In addition to the timing of individual statements,
more general questions were asked concerning
the respondents’ expertise, the relevance of the
areas covered in the survey to Finland as well as
the need for public policy measures in promoting
the solutions and their application. Each thematic
area had 33–39 statements and in addition some
general questions. Results of the Delphi-survey
were reported to the panel members in a
slideshow form. All of the statements and main
figures are presented in Appendix A.
Due to a tight schedule there was only one round
of the Delphi survey. Normally the Delphi
method is based on several rounds in which the
results of the previous round are given as feedback.
The survey was implemented as a web survey.
In total, 130 persons responded of which
some responded to several themes.
The respondents represented mainly research organizations
and businesses (see figure 6.1).
Nearly 67 % of the respondents were aged 41–60,
under 40-year olds were 27 % and over 61-yearolds
were only 6 %. Nearly 84 % of the respondents
were men – leaving female respondents to
only 16 %.
67

The structure of the report is as follows. Chapters
6.2–6.4 examine the Delphi-surveys results according
to each thematic area. Solutions, which
will be rapidly or exceptionally slowly socially
applied, are examined. The analysis has been
conducted by sorting statements by time of social
application and by calculating the differences between
technical realization and social application.
Chapter 6.5 compares the survey results between
different themes.
6.2 Media and ICT
Introduction
The “consumers, media and digital convergence”
theme in the Delphi survey was divided into three
different areas:
Area 1: Media technology for different
use contexts
Area 2: Media convergence and
media industry
Area 3: Technologies to support human
communication.
Area 1 included statements related to different
media technology in various contexts such as at
68
Figure 6.1. Respondent’s background organization (in percentages)
working and home environments, entertainment
and education. Area 2 included statements related
to individually-adapted advertising, readers-produced
newspapers, on-demand TV, electronic
substitutes to traditional alternatives etc.
Area 3 included statements related to better technologies
to support human communication such
as portable devices for people with disabilities,
telephones with real-time translation capabilities
and better search technologies.
The number of respondents for this theme varied
per statement and question but the average number
of respondents was 48.
To examine the background knowledge and reliability
of the statements, respondents were asked
to determine their expertise in each area (expert
knowledge/good knowledge/everyday knowledge).
The respondents had out of the three areas
most expert knowledge in Area 1 (44 %). In Area
2 respondents had mainly good knowledge
(57 %) and less expert knowledge (35 %). In Area
3 the level of expertise was partly similar to Area
2buteveryday knowledge based on sources such
as information from newspapers was the highest
in this area.

Respondents were also asked to determine the
level of competence, including research and development,
in Finland relative to the top level in
the world within each area (Figure 6.2). The results
may correlate the expertise of the respondents,
as Finland’s level of competent was considered
most of all among the top in Area 1 (52 %)
but mainly average in Area 2 (44 %) and in Area 3
(55 %). According to the respondents, Finland
Area 3: Technologies to support
human communication
Area 2: Media convergence and
media industry
Area 1: Media technology for
different user contexts
Figure 6.2. Level of competence in Finland
was not particularly leading nor behind in any
area but rather among the top or average.
The respondents were also asked to choose most
important measures that should be taken by the
government towards technological realization
and social application of the Consumers, media
and digital convergence –theme (Figure 6.3).
Over half of the respondents considered that the
0 20 40 60 80 100 %
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat
behind
Behind
Do not know
What are the most important measures that should be taken by the government toward technological
realization and social application (if any)? You should choose multiple policy measures.
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 4,9)
Human resources development and
education
Strengthened industry-academicgovernment
and interdisciplinary
collaboration
Technology transfer from other
countries
Development of R&D infrastructure
Expansion of R&D funding for public
research organization and companies
Internationalization of R&D activities
Ralaxation of elimination of relevant
regulations
Tightened or new regulations
Improvement of environment for
business startups
Support through taxation, subsidies,
and procurement
Other
Figure 6.3. Government policy measures
50%
45,7%
19,6%
28,3%
30,4%
43,5%
10,9%
2,2%
54,3%
8,7%
6,5%
23
21
9
13
14
20
5
1
25
4
3
69

government should improve environment for
business startups (54 %) as well as human resources
development and education (50 %).
Other important policy measures were considered
to be strengthening industry-academic government
and interdisciplinary collaboration (46
%) and internationalization of R&D activities (44
%). Tightened or new regulations of support
through taxation, subsidies and procurement
were not considered relevant policy measures for
this theme.
Statements
This chapter examines main statements, which
can be implemented in a short period of time or
which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.
Additionally statements, which have
had a short and long gap between technical realization
and social application, are examined. The
focus is on medians but dispersions are also
partly examined.
Systems capable of identifying online content
harmful to young people was a statement, which
was considered to be soonest socially applied
(2010). Other statements which were considered
to be implemented and socially applied within the
next 5 years were media devices at home, which
can be controlled through single user interface
(2012) and a widely application of different 2 D
barcodes of suchlike technologies which can be
read by a mobile phone or other mobile terminals
(2013).
According to the respondents, long-term challenges
were e.g. technologies allowing computers
to electrically and magnetically read information
in the human brain. This was not thought to
be realized before 2036, which was beyond the
timeline of the focus of the Consumers, media
and digital convergence – theme. Other bigger issues
with a similar timeline were other statements
related to the human brain such as “Discovery of
a mechanism for the human brain to directly receive
a greater amount of information faster
70
by means of systems other than the visual (text)
and auditory (sound) systems” and “An external
brain function system that is wearable and operable
through a natural interface and can store general
knowledge like dictionaries as well as a large
amount of personal knowledge, experience, and
information to extend and enhance the brain’s
memory function.”.
Statements, which had a short gap between technical
realization and social application were
among others systems capable of identifying online
content harmful to young people (technical
2010, social 2012) and technologies that allow
utilizing networked, but heterogeneous, global
information sources like an encyclopaedias
(technical 2012, social 2014). Additionally, portable
conservation devices that allow people with
disabilities to convert their thought into speech
was considered quickly socially applicable after
its technical realization but this was though considered
to be implemented only in 2020-22.
Several statements had a long gap between their
technical realization and social application. This
means that technology might even be already
available but its wider application among society
takes time. Such cases could be found in each
area. The difference between the technical realization
and the social application of the statement
“Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority
of printed books in fiction” was particularly
significant with a 16 year gap. Respondents did
not also believe that half of working people
would work remotely from home or other places
using virtual technologies in the coming years despite
that the median of its technical realization is
2010. Respondents considered its social application
to realize only 10 years later. Another case of
slow social application compared to its possibility
of technical realization is artificial intelligence
chips, which would be capable of understanding
human feelings from facial expression.
According to respondents, its technical realization
could be possible in 2014 but social realization
not until 2022.

M3.13 A system capable of identifying the online
content harmful to young people and
automatically checking it.
M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled
through single user interface.
M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read
by a mobile phone or other mobile terminal,
are widely used in different applications.
M2.2 In such fields as art, theater, cinema, music, and
literature, there are artistic activities whose viability is
threatened due to a very small consumer population.
Such small-scale artistic activities can be made
economically viable not by increasing
M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find
the desired information through fuzzy instructions.
M1.10 Educational games are commonly used
for supporting learning in primary and
secondary education.
M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked,
but heterogeneous, global information sources
(the Web, etc.) like an encyclopedia
(including a summarization function of important
items and a question-and-answer mechanism).
M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from
the network new information and valuable knowledge
with high relevance to the specified topic and
presenting them.
M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue
(among 400 largest companies in Finland), that has no
office building and conducts all business operations
over the Internet (using e.g. virtual technology).
M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find
the desired information using instructions given
with sensible, natural language sentences
in everyday use.
M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that
allows searching through and distribution of TV, film,
and music archives of the past few years.
M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched
on mobile terminals.
M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with high
realism that enables, with the aid of a virtual agent,
participants to shareinformation material and
hold natural-language conversations.
M2.1 In TV and other broadcasting media, advertising
material can be adapted to individual viewers.
M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy
movies anywhere, anytime by directly projecting
images on their retinas.
M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely
integrated and half of the content in a national
newspaper is produced by the readers.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Figure 6.4a. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social
application).
71

72
M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds the use
of broadcasting TV.
M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice,
can be integrated in paper based products
and it is possible to produce these in large
amounts quickly.
M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible
(thin and soft) that it can be substituted
for newspaper.
M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-tounderstand
story from fragmented facts and knowledge
and show it as a presentation (and can also add
presumably necessary figures and images
when instructed). Automatic system
(expert systems) that subs
M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that
can be used anytime and anywhere and
allows managing personal life and e.g. public services.
M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from home
or other proper places using virtual technologies that
allow sufficient social contacts with co-workers.
M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that
offer functions such as voice recognition and fuzzy search,
in addition to the information agent functions for
schedule management and access to databases.
M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to
remotely enjoy paintings or music performances as
if they were actually walking around a gallery,
looking at each painting, or sitting in a concert hall,
listening to a live performance.
M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be
watched without wearing special glasses
and feeling fatigue in homes.
M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack
with multifunctional paper like-terminal.
M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows
people with disabilities to convert their
thoughts into speech.
M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of
understanding human feelings
from facial expressions.
M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with
real-time language translation capability.
M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute
majority of printed books in fiction.
M3.3 Technology that allows the computer to electrically
and magnetically read the information recorded
in the human brain.
M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism for the human brain
to directly receive a greater amount of information
faster by means of systems other than the visual (text)
and auditory (sound) systems.
M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable
and operable through a natural interface and can store
general knowledge like dictionaries as well as
a large amount of personal knowledge,experience,
and information to extend and enhance the brain
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Figure 6.4b. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social
application).

6.3 Health
Introduction
The “Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging
society” theme in the Delphi survey was divided
into five different areas:
Area 1: Health promotion & prevention
Area 2: Medicine
Area 3: Medical care for the elderly
Area 4: Health care system
Area 5: Technologies, environment and
society for ambient assisted living
Area 1 included statements related to personal fitness
programs, various methods to diagnose diseases
and disorders as well as nutrition questions.
Area 2 covered statements related to personalized
medicine, drug delivery systems and drugs for
diseases. Area 3 covered statements related solutions
for the elderly such as nursing-care robots,
stem cell therapies and implanted medical devices.
Area 4 included only four statements and
they included statements related to health services,
care provider organizations/agents and implanted
ID chips. Area 5 covered statement related
to smart homes, technology for the elderly,
transport systems and work environments.
The number of respondents for this theme varied
slightly per statement and question but the average
and maximum number of respondents to a
single question was 42.
Area 5: Technologies, environment
andsociety for ambient
assisted living
Area 4: Health care system
Area 3: Medical care for
the elderly
Area 2: Medicine
Area 1: Health promotion and
prevention
Figure 6.5. Level of competence in Finland
0
20
40
To examine the background knowledge and reliability
of the statements, respondents were asked
to determine their expertise in each area. The respondents
had mostly good knowledge in all areas
(40,5–59,5 %). Expert knowledge respondents
had most in Area 4 (35,7 %) and Area 1
(33,3 %). In other areas less than a third of respondents
had expert knowledge of the questions.
The respondents’knowledge was based on everyday
knowledge such as information from newspapers
especially in Area 2 (35,7 %), Area 3 (26,8
%) and Area 5 (23,8 %).
Respondents were also asked to determine the
level of competence, including research and development,
in Finland relative to the top level in
the world within each area. The respondents considered
Finland’s level of competence to be
mainly average in all areas (Figure 6.5). Finland’s
competence was among the top primarily
in Area 1 in which the respondent’s also had expertise
knowledge. According to the respondents,
Finland was not particularly leading nor
behind in any area but rather among the top or average
in all areas.
The respondents were requested to choose most
important measures that should be taken by the
government towards technological realization
and social application of the Healthcare and
wellbeing to prepare for aging society –theme
(figure 6.6). The most important measure according
to the respondents is strengthening indus-
60
80
100
%
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat
behind
Behind
Do not know
73

try-academic government and interdisciplinary
collaboration (63 %). Other important policy
measures were considered to be improvement of
environment for business startups (46 %), human
resources development and education and interdisciplinary
collaboration (42 %) and internationalization
of R&D activities (42 %). All policy
measures were rather evenly distributed – only
tightened or new regulations of support through
taxation, subsidies and procurement was not considered
at all as a relevant policy measure for this
theme.
Statements
This chapter examines main statements, which
can be socially applied in a short period of time or
which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.
Additionally statements, which have
had a short and long gap between technical realization
and social application, are examined. The
focus is on medians but dispersions are also
partly examined.
74
What are the most important measures that should be taken by the government towards technological
realization and social application (if any)? You may choose multiple policy measures.
Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 5)
Human resources development and
education
Strengthened industry-academicgovernment
and interdisciplinary
collaboration
Technology transfer from other
countries
Development of R&D infrastructure
Expansion of R&D funding for public
research organization and companies
Internationalization of R&D activities
Ralaxation of elimination of relevant
regulations
Tightened or new regulations
Improvement of environment for
business startups
Support through taxation, subsidies,
and procurement
Other
14 in which a doctor performs diagnosis over the Internet
Figure 6.6. Government policy measures
41,5%
63,4%
26,8%
31,7%
34,1%
41,5%
14,6%
0%
46,3%
34,1%
4,9%
According to the respondents there are several
technologies that have already realized and can
be soon applied to society. Such states involved
among others public transport systems that support
the personal mobility of elderly and disabled
people (social application possible in 2011) as
well as design guidelines and requirements for
public spaces where anyone can move around
safely and without barriers )social application
possible in 2012). Personalized fitness programs
and centres for the elderly were considered to be
technologically realized in 2008 and be widely
socially applied in 2012. Additionally, health services
based on telemedicine services 14 and medical
data obtained at home or at field were considered
to be applied in 2012.
Respondents consider issues such as stem cell
therapies replacing failing organs (technical realization
2021, social application 2030) and regenerative
medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues and
organs to replace damaged and/or failing tissue
and organs (technical realization 2022, social ap-
17
26
11
13
14
17
6
0
19
14
2

W5.6 Public transport systems that support
the personal mobility of elderly
and disabled people.
W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and
centres for the elderly.
W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements for
public spaces where anyone can move around
safely and without barriers.
W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services
(in which a doctor performs diagnosis over the Internet)
and medical data obtained at home or at field.
W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to improve
mobility and balance, which significantly decrease
the accidents caused by slipping, falling etc.
W4.2 Sharing among all care provider
organizations of all relevant
customer & patient data.
W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed
for the elderly, including interactive, networking
and games demanding physical activity.
W1.2 Methods and technologies to
prevent osteoporosis.
W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep
disorders for "Healthy sleep".
W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor
each other's safety and health remotely.
W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.
W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that broker
and organise services for the elderly.
W5.3 A functioning market that meets the needs of
elderly for housing arrangements (e.g. LOHAS
(Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) housing,
adaptable houses and apartments etc.)
W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology)
to predict the risk for life style related diseases
(e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes).
W3.2 Computerized solo or group psychotherapy
systems for preventing and treating
mental disorders.
W1.5 Methods to diagnose the risk for
a neurodegenerative disease
(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Figure 6.7a. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social
application)
75

76
W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare: Shifting from the
current reactive diagnosis and treatment approach
to prospective assessment, personal health planning,
and selective individual treatment.
W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can
comfortably work fully using their abilities, and
work support technology for constructing
such an environment.
W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.
W2.3 Oral administration of insulin
W3.6 Implanted medical devices for incontinency
control (urination control).
W5.2 Technology for advanced mobility/ walking support
that can dramatically improve the social lives
of elderly and disabled people.
W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful information
for the elderly in urban public spaces so that they can
freely and safely move around (based on
ubiquitous computing, integrated sensors
and sensor networks).
W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify
a person e.g. in emergency care.
W5.1 An affordable, accessible, smart home with devices
and robots that assist an elderly person in eating,
bathing, using the toilet, and enjoying free time
without help from a caregiver.
W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with sensors enabling
closed loop control e.g. for pain, blood pressure
or diabetes management.
W5.5 A driving assistance system for people who
have difficulty in driving or are unable to drive
ordinary cars because of age-related problems.
W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered by
bio-energy sources such as body heat or blood flows
(e.g. health condition monitoring and
cardiac pacemaker).
W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer's disease.
W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver in
bathing without making the patient feel uncomfortable
or uneasy. 39 Artificial limbs with sensation.
W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs is based
on a patient’s symptoms, patient’s genetics and
the body’s cellular response to drug compounds
(Pharmacogenomics).
W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease
(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).
W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues
and organs to replace damaged and/or failing
tissue and organs.
W3.3 Stem cell therapies to replace
failing organs
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Figure 6.7b. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social
application)

plication 2028) to be particularly slowly implemented.
An additional issue to be implemented beyond
2025 was methods to prevent a neurodegenerative
disease such as Dementia or Alzheimer’s,
which was considered to be socially applied
in 2026 (technical realization possible in 2020).
Drugs to cure Alzheimer’s disease was an issue
considered to be quickly socially applied (2023)
as soon as technical realization (2022) is possible.
Other so-called “quick fixes” were oral administration
of insulin (technical realization
2016, social application 2018) and computerized
solo or group psychotherapy systems for preventing
and treating mental disorders (technical realization
2014, social application 2016).
Issues to be particularly slowly socially applied due
to attitude or other reasons were among others implanted
ID chip to automatically identify a person
e.g. in emergency care (technical realization 2009,
social application 2020) and driving assistance systems
for people who have difficulty in driving or are
unable to drive ordinary cars because of age-related
problems (technical realization 2013, social application
2022). Also stem cell therapies replacing
failing organs were not considered by the respondents
to be applied until 2030 although its technical
realization is possible in 2021.
6.4 Energy and material efficiency
Introduction
The “Society based on energy and material efficiency”
theme in the Delphi survey was divided
into five different areas:
Area 1: Housing, spatial planning and
infrastructures
Area 2: Industry, Business, Economy
Area 3: Transport, logistics
Area 4: Material efficiency
Area 5: Food production
Area 6: Energy production
Area 1 included statements related to smart
homes as well as new technologies for infrastructure,
housing and spatial planning. Area 2 included
statements related to energy technology,
paperless companies, energy and material consumption.
Area 3 covered statements related to
transportation and transport systems, joint use of
cars as well as use of wind and solar power. Area
4 covered statements related to recyclable materials,
packaging and material balances. Area 5 included
only three relating to food consumption
and production. Area 6 included statements related
to various energy production technologies.
The number of respondents varied per statement
and question but the average number of respondents
was 46.
To examine the background knowledge and reliability
of the statements, respondents were asked
to determine their expertise in each area.
The Society based on energy and material efficiency-
theme differed from the other themes
from the point of view that the respondents had
less Expert knowledge than in the other themes.
Most expert knowledge respondents had in Area
2: Industry, Business, Economy and Area 6: Energy
production but it was still limited to only a
quarter of respondents (25 %). The respondents
had mostly good knowledge in Areas 1–4 (55,4–
64,6 %). Area 5: Food production had only 3
statements and was thus a small area. It was also
an area in which respondents had least knowledge
as 59 % of the respondents’information was
based on everyday knowledge sources such as
newspapers. In Area 6 the respondents’ knowledge
was most evenly distributed (everyday
knowledge 25 %, good knowledge 44 %, expert
knowledge 29 %).
Respondents were also asked to determine the
level of competence, including research and development,
in Finland relative to the top level in
the world within each area. The respondents considered
Finland’s level of competence to be
mainly average in areas 1-5 (Figure 6.8). However,
in Area 6: Energy production Finland was
perceived to be specifically among the top. According
to the respondents, Finland was not particularly
leading nor behind in any areas.
The respondents were requested to choose most
important measures that should be taken by the
77

government towards technological realization
and social application of the Society based on energy
and material efficiency –theme (Figure 6.9).
The most important measure according to the respondents
is supporting through taxation, subsidies,
and procurement (49 %). Other important
policy measures were considered to be human resources
development and educations (45 %), hu-
78
Area 6: Energy production
Area 5: Food production
Area 4: Material efficiency
Area 3: Transport, logistics
Area 2: Industry, business, economy
Area 1: Housing, spatial planning
and infrastructures
Figure 6.8. Level of competence in Finland
0 20 40 60 80 100%
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat
behind
Behind
Do not know
What are the most important measures that should be taken by the government toward technological
realization and social application (if any)? You should choose multiple policy measures.
Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 5,6)
Human resources development and
education
Strengthened industry-academicgovernment
and interdisciplinary
collaboration
Technology transfer from other
countries
Development of R&D infrastructure
Expansion of R&D funding for public
research organization and companies
Internationalization of R&D activities
Ralaxation of elimination of relevant
regulations
Tightened or new regulations
Improvement of environment for
business startups
Support through taxation, subsidies,
and procurement
Other
Figure 6.9. Government policy measures
44,9%
40,8%
18,4%
36,7%
42,9%
26,5%
2%
42,9%
34,7%
49%
4,1%
man resources development and education (43
%) as well as expansion of R&D funding for public
research organization and companies (43 %).
Most important policy measures for this theme
were measures considered least important in
other themes. This represents the challenges of
advancing energy and material efficiency issues
and thus regulating policy measures are needed.
22
20
9
18
21
13
1
12
17
24
2

Statements
This chapter examines main statements, which
can be implemented in a short period of time or
which will take a significantly long time to be implemented.
Additionally statements, which have
had a short and long gap between technical realization
and social application, are examined. The
focus is on medians but dispersions are also
partly examined.
The “Society based on energy and material efficiency”
theme’s statements had significant differences
between technical realization and social
application in addition to an overall late social application
of the statements.
According to the respondents, solutions to be socially
applied in a relatively short perspective were
design schemes for civil engineering structures
and buildings that adopts the concept of life cycle
assessment (LCA) (technical realization 2011, social
application 2014) and technology for the early
detection of and response to large-scale forest fires
around the world (technical realization 2012, social
application 2015). Additionally, application of
prediction and assessment technologies and processes
in planning that are useful for the
minimization of environmental burdens on spatial
planning were considered to be socially applied
relatively soon (technical realization 2010, social
application 2015).
Issues that will be socially applied in a considerably
long time perspective were partly attitude-related
and partly technology-related. Nuclear fusion
electric power generation was considered to
be a major technological challenge as its technological
realization is according to the respondents
not possible until 2033 and social application not
possible before 2036. Other technologically challenging
solutions, which thus postpone social application
were hydrogen production processes
based on solar heat, thermochemical method using
nuclear heat or other environmentally viable technology
(technical realization 2023, social application
2030) and the use of wind and solar power in
ships (technical realization 2021, social application
2030).
Social application of food consisting mainly of
vegetables, which reduces significantly environmental
impacts like green house gas emissions,
represented a significant challenge in consumer
behaviour. This statement also had the longest
gap between technical realization and social application.
Technical realization was considered to
be possible in 2013 but social application not before
2032. This can be potentially explained by
the fact that 87 % of the respondents in this theme
were men 15 . Another attitude-related challenge
was the use of car sharing and other forms of joint
use of cars that are widely used in large cities
(technical realization 2007, social application
2021). Respondents also considered that the social
application of half of working people to work
remotely from home or other proper places using
virtual technologies would not occur before
2028.
Issues to be implemented rather rapidly were
above mentioned technology for the early detection
of and response to large-scale forest fires
around the world and design schemes for civil engineering
structures, and buildings that adopts
the concept of life cycle assessment (LCA). Respondents
also considered that the implementation
of LED-technology as the leading technology
for lightning in homes, offices etc. could occur
in 2015 (technical realization 2012).
15 See e.g. “Why Women Live Longer than Men”: http://www.ncahs.nsw.gov.au/men/index.php?pageid=922&siteid=191
79

80
E1.3 A design scheme for civil engineering structures and
buildings that adopts the concept of
ife cycle assessment (LCA).
E1.10 Technology for the early detection of and response
to large-scale forest fires around the world.
E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment technologies
and processes in planning that are useful for the minimization
of environmental burdens on spatial planning.
E1.5 LED-technology is the leading technology for
lightning in homes, offices etc.
E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering companies
(ESCO and MASCO) are commonly used in developing
energy and material efficiency in industries, other business
and public entities.
E4.6 All products include informative description covering
information about production, material balances
and emissions levels.
E4.2 Methodology for tracing and identifying materials
suitable for recycling (plastics and metals).
E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which electronics,
media, and internet are seamlessly connected, and the
system controls and optimises also lightning and temperature
taking into account circumstances and need.
E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and
sustainability is raising and this leads to significant changes
in energy consumption, energy production and energy and
material saving through consumer choices and market demand.
E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes for
SF6 gas (sulfur hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating, and
arc quenching in electrical equipment), which has been
additionally listed as a regulated substance by the
E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological solutions
reduce energy onsumption per capita in new housing areas
(including heating, lightning, appliances, local transport of goods
and people, etc.) in Finland by half.
E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers buy
services or lease or lend durables instead of
purchasing material products.
E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly based
on reuse systems.
E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.
E2.5 Most companies and public organisations, regardless
of size, go paperless and improve productivity as well as
energy and material efficiency through the digitization.
E2.8 Manufacturers' responsibility (producer responsibility)
for collecting and processing of discarded products is defined
by law, and reuse and recycling systems in which more than
90% of used material is reused or recycled become
E3.1 The need for transportation of material and people is
significantly decreased by the use of IT
(like traffic demand management systems).
E3.5 Car sharing and other forms of joint use of cars
are widely used in large cities.
E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic
elements based on biotechnology.
E1.8 New technology related to use of water (e.g. low water
or waterless cleaning clothes, dish washing etc.) and in waste
water systems lead to a significant reduction in the amount
of waste water (prevention of waste water as a guiding
E3.4 Common distribution systems across urban areas that
reduce the urban traffic needs stemming from an increased
volume of small-package deliveries due to the proliferation
of e-commerce.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Figure 6.10a. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social
application)

E1.9 In the dense housing areas transportation of
the recyclables and disposable wastes are
organized by so called central vacuum
waste sorting/transpartion system.
E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle feed
or compost by efficient small scale plants (micro
cogeneration in households etc.) that use local biomaterial
like household and garden waste, weeds etc.
E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is replaced
by public transportation, walking and cycling, that are
made attractive e.g. by new innovations in information,
comfort, traffic safety etc.
E6.6 Formation of international consensus on the CO2
storage in oil and gas fields and
brine-filled formations.
E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling
to be performed locally by each house or household to
eliminate emissions and the need for collection.
E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large extent
based on eco efficient processes like fermentation
and drying by solar energy.
E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible
(thin and soft) that it can be substituted
for newspaper.
E5.3 Majority of the food consumption is produced locally
(near-production) and energy and material efficiency
in the production and logistic chain is reduced.
E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings
through a major industrial plant downsizing
(1/ 2 to 1/ 10 of current size) or a dramatic improvement
in plant serviceability by introducing modules in workflows,
recombining modules, and constructing
E6.3 Fuel cells for medium- and large-scale
electricity generation.
E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport systems are
widely used (automobiles, ships, etc.)
E2.1 Motors and other industrial electric power apparatuses
utilize high-temperature superconductivity.
E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric
power generation in areas that have electricity
distribution network.
E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from home
or other proper places using virtual technologies that allow
sufficient social contacts with co-workers.
E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production
processes by means of large-scale energy storage system
(superconductivity technology, a flywheel, a capacitor, etc.)
E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.
E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar heat,
thermochemical method using nuclear heat or other
environmentally viable technology.
E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and this
reduces significantly environmental impacts like
green house gas emissions.
E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Figure 6.10b. Time of social application of the statements (red technological realization, blue social
application)
81

6.5 Comparison of the themes
This chapter presents briefly some comparisons
between the three themes focusing especially on
differences among social application of the statements
and policy measures.
Out of the three themes, time of social application
of the statements of the Healthcare and wellbeing
to prepare for aging society –theme was assessed
to be most rapid. Within this area there were also
the shortest gaps between technical realization and
social application. Attitude-related statements and
challenging solutions for certain diseases and
medication formed the major reasons for social
application to be prolonged. Social application of
the statements of the Consumers, media and digital
convergence –theme was generally slower than
the healthcare theme but significantly quicker than
the Society based on energy and material efficiency
– theme. Certain issues in the Consumers,
media and digital convergence were technological
challenges and some attitude and societal challenges.
Society based on energy and material efficiency
– theme was the most challenging theme
both from the technical realization perspective as
well as social application. According to the respondents,
most statements will take a long period
of time to be implemented.
82
Due to the problematic nature of energy and material
efficiency, policy measures needed to be
taken concerning the Society based on energy
and material efficiency –theme differed substantially
from the other two themes. Where the respondents
for the media and healthcare theme
considered tightened or new regulations as the
least important measure, it was among the most
important to the energy theme. In addition, support
through taxation, subsidies and procurement
was the most important policy measure for the
energy theme but which was less emphasized in
the other themes. In fact, the respondents for the
media and healthcare theme valued the same policy
measures as most important but in a different
order. Human resource development, strengthening
of industry-academic government, internationalization
of R&D activities and improvement
of environment for business startups were the
most important policy measures for these two
themes. Human resources development and education
was also the second most important measure
for the energy theme. Expansion of R&D
funding for public research organizations was
also a more important policy measure for the energy
themes than for the other themes.

7 Cross-thematic innovation potential
Mari Hjelt and Mikko Syrjänen,
Gaia Consulting Ltd
7.1 Background and structure
During the panel process it was recognized that
the thematic panels worked with several closely
linked issues. After completing the panel workshops,
the chairmen of the panels met and decided
that an additional workshop for examining
cross-cutting issues would be a useful addition to
the process. A half day workshop with the panel
chairmen and Tekes representatives was thus organized.
The workshop aimed to
identify the main cross-thematic issues and
work with a tentative road-map on selected
cross-cutting issues.
The workshop focused on the issues that have
links to all of the themes or to some of them (see
Figure 7.1). The time for the discussion was relatively
short and the participants aimed to avoid issues
that were already well covered in the panel
reports. The work proceeded in three steps:
1. Open discussion to present the panel results
and identify cross-thematic issues
2. Prioritization of few major issues
Energy and
material efficiency
Energy and
media
Energy and
wellbeing
Common for
all
Consumers,
media and digital
convergence
3. Defining a tentative road-map for each major
issue following the same road-map structure
the panels had used.
7.2 Cross-thematic challenges
and issues
Cross-cutting issues were identified based on a
joint discussion. The participants had had an opportunity
to read the panel reports beforehand
and the reports were also shortly presented in the
workshop. After that the group discussed the observations
of the linkages between the issues and
grouped different issues on the wall as a map following
the framework presented in Figure 7.1. A
simplified overview of the results is presented in
Figure 7.2 and described in more detail in the following.
Overall, the consumer perspective received more
attention in the discussion than the industry perspective.
There are few reasons for this. First,
both the wellbeing panel, and the consumer, media
and digital convergence panel had a strong
Wellbeing and
media
Wellbeing and
aging
Figure 7.1. Framework for positioning cross-thematic issues
83

emphasis on consumers and individuals creating
future opportunities. Also, the energy and material
efficient society panel largely had discussed
the future challenges from a consumer perspective
emphasizing the role of changing values and
attitudes. Second, all the panels shared a view
that many of the important future trends and uncertainties
are linked to the way how the societal
attitudes develop in the future. Indeed, one of the
major themes in the cross-cutting discussion was
a debate whether the future societal values will
emphasize individualism or collectivism. Third,
the consumer perspective also got more attention
because throughout the panels the role of the services
and increased consumer wealth were seen
as the major future drivers for the economy. Finland
also faces major challenges in the future especially
in the service sector.
In addition to the discussion whether the future
societal values and attitudes will emphasize individualism
or collectivism, the other major drivers
identified as relevant trends linking the panel
themes were the following:
Patterns in the use of time and leisure activities.
How will people allocate their time if
there is more flexibility, e.g., in working
hours? Will they use their time in ways that
consume a lot of energy and materials? Will
84
Energy and
material efficiency
Individualism
collectivism
Climate
change
Logistics
Net
communities
Mobility
Use of time
Smart living
Tourism
Services
Consumers
media and digital
convergence
Preventive
actions
Good physical
condition
Figure 7.2. An overview of the main cross-thematic issues
Wellbeing and
aging
Use of free
time
they sit next to different media or will they invest
the time on sports and wellbeing?
Increased role of ICT cross-cutting all societal
themes. It was agreed that definitely the
role of ICT and different media channels in our
everyday lives will increase. Home entertainment
solutions, ubiquitous environments and
continuous net presence will open up new opportunities
and solutions relevant for all the
panel themes as well as challenges (e.g., use of
energy will increase due to an increased
amount of electronic equipment surrounding
us, low mobility and low physical activity level
might drop to a level that will create large societal
health problems).
Net communities. What will be the role of
emerging net communities shaping our societies
and behavior? How much will the individuals
take control over their own media usage and activity
and how much will there be different
agents taking control over personal media usage.
Attitudes towards preventive actions will be
very important both for wellbeing and for environmental
themes. The participants discussed
whether the individuals have an interest for
making choices beneficial for future generation
or even for themselves on the longer run
(i.e., avoiding obesity) or whether individuals
now and in the future have interest only on issues
close oneself in the short run.

Increased costs of energy and materials and
climate change were named as the major
trends that will greatly affect the societies in
the future. Also aging was recognized as one
of the major drivers that will create the opportunities
for Finland.
Major issues identified as the most important
cross-cutting topics can be grouped under the following
titles and themes. These themes and these
conclusions were produced through few separate
discussion steps.
1. Smart and sustainable living
environments
Finnish building infrastructure will face a large
renovation and re-building boom as the building
generation from the first urbanization period after
WWII is getting old. At the same time there is a
need for housing suitable for aging population.
This situation creates a great opportunity to build
living concepts that take into account both needs
of aging people as well as the energy and material
efficiency. The export opportunities for these solutions
are also very good. The participants particularly
emphasized the role of increasing Russian
markets. Finnish building cluster is taking a
step ahead to use this opportunity, but it will be a
challenge. The specific issues discussed under
this topic were the following.
Flexibility and adaptability are the main characteristics
of future buildings and environments.
Aim is to increase the life cycle of
buildings.
Home ICT is at the edge of big changes. Monitoring
and continuous network connections
open up new opportunities (easy communication
with personal networks from your home,
net communities for social interaction from
home, increased interaction with the surrounding
environment through monitoring)
Home entertainment solutions emphasizing
physical exercise may gain momentum.
“Functional Games” boom may emerge soon.
Smart home solutions – monitoring and automation
enable new energy and resource man-
agement solutions. The solutions may bring
the information visible and easily accessible
(consumers have a strong control over the
management and see effects of their actions)
and/or intelligent agents take care of optimization.
Home is only one module of the living environment.
Decisions and changes in spatial planning
as a whole will be a major issue.
2. Mobility
Generally the participants shared a view that the
mobility of people will decrease in the future. The
main driver for this argument is the increased price
of energy and costs of mobility. The ICT solutions
also enable the communication and completion of
different functions through other means than by
face-to-face meetings. However, it was also
stressed that there is great uncertainty of the connection
between ICT and mobility. The research
results are in contradiction whether ICT and increased
use media technologies are going to increase
or decrease mobility. Mobility is also one of
the key themes for aging society. Some of the activities
and functions can be covered by ICT solutions
but not all. The capability of the aging population
to move themselves is one the key issues.
General issues discussed were the following.
Changing time use patterns and the ways how
people will organize their work and leisure
time will affect a lot this issue. Division of activities
to “staying in on place” and “being on
the move” will become on one hand more important
and on the other hand this division will
get blurred. Net presence will become a normal
way of interaction.
If people move around less, the “village” societies
will get stronger. Net will provide an important
“window to outside world” and will be
very important part of normal life. There will
be more net communities having an important
role.
No-car-societies will emerge. Mobility theme
is strongly linked with smart living concept
and spatial urban planning.
85

3. Service business
Service business was identified as one of the main
cross-cutting opportunity and challenge for all of
the themes. The following discussion items
linked to the services.
ICT and media tools enable new types of
wellbeing services combining also entertainment
and leisure time needs. These opportunities
are yet unexplored.
Generally aging society will need a variety of
wellbeing and health support services. These
markets will grow.
Net communities will be used actively to also
explore the tacit knowledge about aging people
who will actively participate themselves.
Eco-efficiency concepts and media services
will be efficiently combined. Persuasive media
service will direct consumer behavior aiming
to, e.g., reduce energy consumption.
More virtual service production concepts will
emerge.
4. Tourism
Tourism was identified as one cross-cutting opportunity
combining Finnish pure nature ecotourism,
benefits that we get from the climate
change, increased health tourism due to wealthy
aging population, and virtual tourism opportunities
offered by ICT tools. Particularly, the potential
for virtual tourism solutions will increased if
the mobility of the people will be reduced due to
the increases costs and aim for energy efficiency.
5. Being in Good Shape
The participants were worried of physical activity
level of the generation being now 15 – 35 years
old. In few decades there might be serious national
health problems if this issue is not solved in
the short run. This challenge combines all the
themes from the following viewpoints or perspectives.
The public health care costs will explode if this
issue is not taken seriously now and solutions
sought for. The solutions to this would also be
major business opportunities on the wellbeing
sector.
86
ICT and media tools are both a problem and a
potential solution. ICT may decrease the everyday
mobility, reducing the normal physical
activity level. The again, there is a big opportunity
to develop new solutions and services that
motivate people to stay in shape (e.g., life span
monitoring of health).
New environmentally friendly and energy efficient
solutions to maintain good personal
physical shape can be developed.
6. Green ICT society
Many of the discussed issues were linked to the
overarching role of ICT in future society and
whether there is a Finnish opportunity to become
a true Green ICT nation. The following specific
issues on this theme were touched.
ICT sector has a big challenge to create energy
efficient solutions which will become more
important when the use of the ICT is constantly
expanding.
In the ICT sector the pace of development is
very fast. A challenge is to get the slower and
more conservative energy industry cluster to
the same speed.
Finnish forest cluster is facing big structural
changes. This change should be seen as an opportunity
for becoming energy and material efficient
society.
Logistics will generally be a big future challenge.
Although the mobility of people might be
decreasing, the movement of goods in global logistic
chains most likely will increase. Solutions
to these problems are often ICT based.
7.3 Identified innovation
potential
The next step of the work focused on selecting few
issues for which a tentative road-map of the objectives
and solutions was produced. Before proceeding
towards the brainstorming more detailed solutions,
the participants had a general discussion on
the relevance of the issues for the future in Finland.
The discussion emphasized the consumer perspective,
but at this phase it was stressed that the

Finnish economy needs also in the future a strong
industry basis and viable clusters. Three conditions
were identified as common for all the issues
and for any other area in which future economic
growth in Finland will be sought for.
1. The services and products need to be exported
and the aim is to get into the global markets.
Even if the specific product or service aims to
solve challenges typical for Finland and in
Finland, it is attractive for economy only if it
also has some market potential abroad.
2. The services and products need to form larger
integrated solutions combining many individual
solutions to provide clear added value.
3. The business partners, subcontractors, and clients
are globally dispersed, but the Finnish
companies should aim to be in the positions
where they are able to have the control over the
management of the product value networks
and distribution channels.
The following three major topics were identified
as the most interesting ones for further discussion.
1. Wellbeing services
2. Smart living and smart buildings concepts
3. Mobility management
For each one of these topics the participants
worked as pairs to identify the main drivers, aim
and solutions. The drivers identified for each topic
were the same as described earlier. The main aim
and some solutions are described below.
Wellbeing services – Total concept of
healthy living
Vision: Create ”turn-key solutions” for healthy
and eco-efficient living environments covering
all aspects of life (could be houses, building
blocks, city areas, cities, regions…)
Solutions:
Integrated planning taking into account transport,
logistics, waste and water management,
ICT infrastructure etc. for people in all different
age groups. Special attention paid for encouraging
to sport and being active.
Different business segments and different type
of knowledge needs to be integrated. (As an example
a “good sleep hotels” concept was mentioned)
Create living lab –pilots
Instead of vertical networks there needs to be
larger clusters to invest and create integrated solutions
that aim to global markets (e.g. Russian)
Smart living and intelligent buildings
Vision: There are adaptive housing solutions that
promote individual well-being and low consumption
of natural resources
Solutions:
Energy consumption adapts to changing everyday
needs
New spatial planning solutions reduce the need
to move
Smart technologies are developed for 2 nd
homes and summer cottages – automation and
robotics
Self-diagnostics of housing related issues and
problems are developed – sensors and data
management
New smart materials (nanotechnologies)
Awareness technologies – comparison among
friends and families would be used as a social
incentive
Smart insulation – Finnish know-how to global
markets
Knowledge and promotion of good practices
through media
Integrated home ICT solutions
Energy and building companies as key business
actors – Hybrid solutions for home energy
consumption, new service concepts
“Smart renovation”
Mobility management
Vision: Energy consumption due to the mobility
of people and goods will remarkably decrease
Solutions:
Car sharing, management of everyday logistics
Management of mobility due to public services
(health care, social services)
87

88
Call on demand -solutions
Use of real-time location data (mobile services,
waiting times etc.)
New generation route planners – more dynamic
and more customer oriented individually
tailored solutions
Distance working and new working time and
work planning solutions
Transport pricing solutions (road tolls, energy
price etc.)
New trusted third party service providers and
facilitators, trusted operators
New solutions – tools and services – for collective
mobility
Logistics solutions

Appendix A
Full Delphi survey results
Background questions
What is the type of your background organization?
Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 2)
Age
Gender
Business
Research
Public funding agency (e.g.Tekes)
Other
Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 1,8)
-40
41–60
61-
Number of question respondents: 130 (avg: 1,8)
Female
Male
Number of responds (average)
32,3%
45,4%
16,2%
6,2%
26,9%
66,9%
6,2%
16,2%
83,8%
• Consumers, media and digital convergence (48 respondents)
Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society (42 respondents)
Society based on energy and material efficiency (46 respondents)
42
59
21
8
35
87
8
21
109
89

Consumers, media and digital convergence – introduction
Area 1: Media technology for different use contexts
90
Statements
M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue (among 400 largest companies
in Finland), that has no office building and conducts all business operations
over the Internet (using e.g. virtual technology).
M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with high realism that enables,
with the aid of a virtual agent, participants to share information material and hold
natural-language conversations.
M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from home or other proper
places using virtual technologies that allow sufficient social contacts with
co-workers.
M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy movies anywhere, anytime by
directly projecting images on their retinas.
M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to remotely enjoy paintings
or music performances as if they were actually walking around a gallery, looking
at each painting, or sitting in a concert hall, listening to a live performance.
M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled through single user interface.
M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched without wearing special
glasses and feeling fatigue in homes.
M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin and soft) that it can be substituted
for newspaper.
M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack with multifunctional paper
like-terminal.
M1.10 Educational games are commonly used for supporting learning in primary
and secondary education.
M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that can be used anytime and
anywhere and allows managing personal life and e.g. public services.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
M1.1 A virtual company, with € 100 million revenue...
M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system with...
M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from...
M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoy...
M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people to...
M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlled...
M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may be watched...
M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin...
M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksack with...
M1.10 Educational games are commonly used for...
M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space that can...
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 3,2)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of
the questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
6,3%
29,2%
20,8%
29,2%
14,6%
0%
3
14
10
14
7
0
91

92
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,2; total: 48)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4,4; total: 48)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
4,2%
14,6%
39,6%
39,6%
2,1%
0%
4,2%
10,4%
31,2%
54,2%
0%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,6)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
2,1%
52,1%
35,4%
4,2%
6,3%
0%
0
2
7
19
19
1
0
2
5
15
26
0
42
59
21
2
3
0

Area 2: Media convergence and media industry
Statements
M2.1 In TV and other broadcasting media, advertising material can be adapted to
individual viewers.
M2.2 In such fields as art, theater, cinema, music, and literature, there are artistic
activities whose viability is threatened due to a very small consumer population.
Such small-scale artistic activities can be made economically viable not by increasing
the
M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely integrated and half of the
content in a national newspaper is produced by the readers.
M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds the use of broadcasting TV.
M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched on mobile terminals.
M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that allows searching through
and distribution of TV, film, and music archives of the past few years.
M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice, can be integrated in paper based
products and it is possible to produce these in large amounts quickly.
M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority of printed books in fiction.
M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read by a mobile phone or
other mobile terminal, are widely used in different applications.
93

94
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
M2.1 In TV and other broadcasting media, advertising material
can be adapted to individual viewers.
M2.2 In such fields as art, theater, cinema, music, and literature,
there are artistic activities whose viability is threatened due to
a very small consumer population. Such small scale...
M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largely
!
integrated
and half of the content in a national newspaper is produced
by the readers.
M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds the use of broadcasting TV.
M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watched
on mobile terminals.
M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution system that
allows searching through and distribution of TV, film,
and music archives of the past few years.
M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice, can be integrated
in paper based products and it is possible to produce
these in large amounts quickly.
M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitute majority of
printed books in fiction.
M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be read by
a mobile phone or other mobile terminal, are widely
used in different applications.
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 3)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of
the questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
8,3%
27,1%
29,2%
27,1%
8,3%
0%
4
13
14
13
4
0

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
related to this theme in Finnish society (avg: 4; total: 48)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland (avg: 4; total: 46)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
8,3%
25%
29,2%
37,5%
0%
0%
6,5%
26,1%
30,4%
37%
0%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,8)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
2,1%
39,6%
43,8%
4,2%
8,3%
2,1%
0
4
12
14
18
0
0
3
12
14
17
1
0
19
21
2
4
1
95

Area 3: Technologies to support human communication
96
Statements
M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that offer functions such
as voice recognition and fuzzy search, in addition to the information agent functions
for schedule management and access to databases.
M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows people with disabilities to convert
their thoughts into speech.
M3.3 Technology that allows the computer to electrically and magnetically read
the information recorded in the human brain.
M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism for the human brain to directly receive a greater
amount of information faster by means of systems other than the visual (text) and
auditory (sound) systems.
M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable and operable through a
natural interface and can store general knowledge like dictionaries as well as a
large amount of personal knowledge, experience, and information to extend and
enhance the brain’s me
M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with real- time language translation capability.
M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from the network new information
and valuable knowledge with high relevance to the specified topic and
presenting them.
M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked, but heterogeneous, global information
sources (the Web, etc.) like an encyclopedia (including a summarization
function of important items and a question- and-answer mechanism).
M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-to-understand story from
fragmented facts and knowledge and show it as a presentation (and can also add
presumably necessary figures and images when instructed).Automatic system
(expert systems) that substitut
M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find the desired information
through fuzzy instructions.
M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find the desired information
using instructions given with sensible, natural language sentences in everyday
use.
M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of understanding human feelings
from facial expressions.
M3.13 A system capable of identifying the online content harmful to young people
and automatically checking it.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals that offer
functions such as voice recognition and fuzzy search, in addition...
M3.2 A portable conversation device that allows people with
disabilities to convert their thoughts into speech.
M3.3 Technology that allows the computer to electrically and
magnetically read the information recorded in the human brain.
M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism for the human brain to directly
receive a greater amount of information faster by means of...
M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearable and
operable through a natural interface and can store general...
M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone with real-time
language translation capability.
M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving from the network
new information and valuable knowledge with high...
M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked, but heterogeneous,
global information sources (the Web, etc.) like...
M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-to understand
story from fragmented facts and knowledge and...
M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to find
the desired information through fuzzy instructions.
M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to find
the desired information using instructions given with...
M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable of understanding
human feelings from facial expressions.
M3.13 A system capable of identifying the online content harmful
to young people and automatically checking it.
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 2,8)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
14,3%
32,7%
24,5%
16,3% 8
12,2%
0%
7
16
12
6
0
97

98
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 48)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,9; total: 48)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
2,1%
6,2%
20,8%
52,1%
16,7%
2,1%
2,1%
12,5%
16,7%
31,2%
33,3%
4,2%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 49 (avg: 2,9)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
2%
26,5%
55,1%
10,2%
4,1%
2%
1
3
10
25
8
1
1
6
8
15
16
1
2
13
27
5
2
1

Consumers, media and digital convergence
– Other innovations and observations
What are the most important measures that should be taken by the government
towards technological realization and social application (if any)?
You may choose multiple policy measures.
Number of question respondents 46 (avg: 4,9)
Human resources development and
education
Strengthened industry-academicgovernment
and interdisciplinary
collaboration
Technology transfer from other countries
Development of R&D infrastructure
Expansion of R&D funding for public
research organization and companies
Internationalization of R&D activitities
Relaxation or elimination of relevant
regulations
Tightened or new regulations
Improvement of environment for
business startups
Support through taxation, subsidies, and
procurement
Other
50% 23
45,7% 21
19,6% 9
28,3% 13
30,4% 14
43,5% 20
10,9% 5
2,2% 1
54,3% 25
8,7% 4
6,5%
3
99

Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society
– introduction
Area 1: Health promotion & prevention
100
Statements
W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare: Shifting from the current reactive diagnosis
and treatment approach to prospective assessment, personal health planning,
and selective individual treatment.
W1.2 Methods and technologies to prevent osteoporosis.
W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.
W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology) to predict the risk for life
style related diseases (e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes).
W1.5 Methods to diagnose the risk for a neurodegenerative disease (e.g. Dementia
or Alzheimer’s).
W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease (e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer’s).
W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep disorders for “Healthy sleep”.
W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and centres for the elderly.
W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed for the elderly, including interactive,
networking and games demanding physical activity.
W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to improve mobility and balance,
which significantly decrease the accidents caused by slipping, falling etc.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare:Shifting
from the current reactive diagnosis
and treatment approach to...
W1.2 Methods and technologies to
prevent osteoporosis.
W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.
W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology)
to predict the risk for life style related diseases (e.g....
W1.5 Methods to diagnose the risk
for a neurodegenerative disease
(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).
W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease
(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).
W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleep disorders
for “Healthy sleep".
W1.8 Personalized fitness programs and
centres for the elderly.
W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designed
for the elderly, including interactive,
networking and games...
W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to
improve mobility and balance, which
significantly decrease the...
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 3)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
7,1%
26,2%
33,3%
26,2% 11
7,1%
0%
3
16
14
6
0
101

102
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
Number of question respondents: 42
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 42)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 42)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
4,8%
23,8%
31%
40,5%
0%
0%
14,3%
26,2%
31%
28,6%
0%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,6)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
4,8%
42,9%
40,5%
11,9%
0%
0%
0
2
10
13
17
0
0
6
11
13
12
2
0
18
17
5
0
0

Area 2: Medicine
Statements
W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs is based on a patient’s symptoms,
patient’s genetics and the body’s cellular response to drug compounds
(Pharmacogenomics).
W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with sensors enabling closed loop control
e.g. for pain, blood pressure or diabetes management.
W2.3 Oral administration of insulin
W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.
W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer’s disease.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs
is based on a patient’s symptoms,
patient’s genetics...
W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with
sensors enabling closed loop
control e.g. for pain, blood...
W2.3 Oral administration of insulin
W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.
W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer's disease.
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,3)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
35,7%
31%
9,5%
14,3%
7,1%
2,4%
15
13
4
6
3
1
103

104
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 41)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 41)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
4,9%
24,4%
39%
17,1%
14,6%
0%
14,6%
29,3%
36,6%
7,3%
12,2%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 3,2)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
0%
29,3%
46,3%
9,8%
4,9%
9,8%
0
4
12
14
18
0
0
6
12
15
0
3
5
12
19
4
2
4

Area 3: Medical care for the elderly
Statements
W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver in bathing without making
the patient feel uncomfortable or uneasy.39 Artificial limbs with sensation."
W3.2 Computerized solo or group psychotherapy systems for preventing and
treating mental disorders.
W3.3 Stem cell therapies to replace failing organs
W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid tissues and organs to replace
damaged and/or failing tissue and organs.
W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered by bio-energy sources such as
body heat or blood flows (e.g. health condition monitoring and cardiac pacemaker).
W3.6 Implanted medical devices for incontinency control (urination control).
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver
in bathing without making the patient feel...
W3.2 Computerized solo or group psychotherapy
systems for preventing and treating
mental disorders.
W3.3 Stem cell therapies to replace failing organs
W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid
tissues and organs to replace damaged and/or...
W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered
by bio-energy sources such as
body heat or blood flows...
W3.6 Implanted medical devices for incontinency
control (urination control).
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 2,4)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
26,8%
29,3%
24,4%
17,1%
0%
2,4%
11
12
10
7
0
1
105

106
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
Number of question respondents: 42
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 42)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 42)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0% 0
7,1% 3
21,4% 9
38,1% 16
21,4% 9
11,9% 5
0%
21,4%
19%
31%
14,3%
14,3%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 3,6)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
0%
21,4%
38,1%
19%
2,4%
19%
0
9
8
13
0
9
6
6
16
8
1
8

Area 4: Health care system
Statements
W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services (in which a doctor performs
diagnosis over the Internet) and medical data obtained at home or at field.
W4.2 Sharing among all care provider organizations of all relevant customer &
patient data.
W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify a person e.g. in emergency
care.
W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that broker and organise services for
the elderly.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services
(in which a doctor performs diagnosis over the Internet)
and medical data obtained at home or at...
W4.2 Sharing among all care provider organizations of
all relevant customer & patient data.
W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identify a
person e.g. in emergency care.
W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that
broker and organise services for the elderly.
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,8)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
11,9%
35,7%
16,7%
28,6%
7,1%
0%
5
15
7
12
3
0
107

108
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
Number of question respondents: 42
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,2; total: 42)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 42)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
2,4%
23,8%
31%
40,5%
2,4%
0%
7,1%
33,3%
35,7%
21,4%
2,4%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,7)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
2,4%
40,5%
47,6%
7,1%
0%
2,4%
1
17
20
3
0
1
0
1
10
13
17
1
0
9
8
15
9
1

Area 5: Technologies, environment and society for ambient assisted living
Statements
W5.1 An affordable, accessible, smart home with devices and robots that assist
an elderly person in eating, bathing, using the toilet, and enjoying free time without
help from a caregiver.
W5.2 Technology for advanced mobility/ walking support that can dramatically
improve the social lives of elderly and disabled people.
W5.3 A functioning market that meets the needs of elderly for housing arrangements
(e.g. LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) housing, adaptable
houses and apartments etc.)
W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor each other’s safety and
health remotely.
W5.5 A driving assistance system for people who have difficulty in driving or are
unable to drive ordinary cars because of age-related problems.
W5.6 Public transport systems that support the personal mobility of elderly and
disabled people.
W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements for public spaces where anyone can
move around safely and without barriers.
W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful information for the elderly in urban
public spaces so that they can freely and safely move around (based on ubiquitous
computing, integrated sensors and sensor networks).
W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can comfortably work fully
using their abilities, and work support technology for constructing such an environment.
109

110
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
W5.1 An affordable, accessible, smart home with
devices and robots that assist an elderly person in...
W5.2 Technology for advanced mobility/ walking
support that can dramatically improve the social lives...
W5.3 A functioning market that meets the needs of
elderly for housing arrangements (e.g. LOHAS...
W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitor
each other's safety and health remotely.
W5.5 A driving assistance system for people who have
difficulty in driving or are unable to drive ordinary...
W5.6 Public transport systems that support the
personal mobility of elderly and disabled people...
W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements for public
spaces where anyone can move around safely and...
W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful
information for the elderly in urban public spaces so...
W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people can
comfortably work fully using their abilities, and work...
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 42 (avg: 2,5)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
23,8%
33,3%
19%
14,3% 6
9,5%
0%
10
14
8
4
0

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4; total: 42)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4; total: 42)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
2,4%
28,6%
40,5%
23,8%
4,8%
0%
2,4%
35,7%
28,6%
26,2%
7,1%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 41 (avg: 3)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
0%
26,8%
56,1%
9,8%
2,4%
4,9%
1
11
23
4
1
2
0
1
12
17
10
2
0
1
15
12
11
3
111

Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society
– Other innovations and observations
112
What are the most important measures that should be taken by the
government towards technological realization and social application (if any)?
You may choose multiple policy measures.
Number of question respondents 41 (avg: 5)
Human resources development and
education
Strengthened industry-academicgovernment
and interdisciplinary
collaboration
Technology transfer from other countries
Development of R&D infrastructure
Expansion of R&D funding for public
research organization and companies
Internationalization of R&D activitities
Relaxation or elimination of relevant
regulations
Tightened or new regulations
Improvement of environment for
business startups
Support through taxation, subsidies, and
procurement
Other
41,5% 17
63,4% 26
26,8% 11
31,7% 13
34,1% 14
41,5% 17
14,6% 6
0% 0
46,3% 19
34,1% 14
4,9%
2

Society based on energy and material efficiency – introduction
Area 1: Housing, spatial planning and infrastructures
Statements
E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which electronics, media, and internet
are seamlessly connected, and the system controls and optimises also lightning
and temperature taking into account circumstances and need.
E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment technologies and processes in
planning that are useful for the minimization of environmental burdens on spatial
planning.
E1.3 A design scheme for civil engineering structures and buildings that adopts
the concept of life cycle assessment (LCA).
E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological solutions reduce energy
consumption per capita in new housing areas (including heating, lightning, appliances,
local transport of goods and people, etc.) in Finland by half.
E1.5 LED-technology is the leading technology for lightning in homes, offices
etc.
E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling to be performed locally
by each house or household to eliminate emissions and the need for collection.
E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.
E1.8 New technology related to use of water (e.g. low water or waterless cleaning
clothes, dish washing etc.) and in waste water systems lead to a significant reduction
in the amount of waste water (prevention of waste water as a guiding principle).
E1.9 In the dense housing areas transportation of the recyclables and disposable
wastes are organized by so called central vacuum waste sorting/transpartion system.
E1.10 Technology for the early detection of and response to large-scale forest
fires around the world.
113

114
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which
electronics, media, and internet are seamlessly...
E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment
technologies and processes in planning that are useful...
E1.3 A design scheme for civil engineering structures
and buildings that adopts the concept
of life cycle assessment...
E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological
solutions reduce energy consumption per capita in new...
E1.5 LED-technology is the leading technology
for lightning in homes, offices etc.
E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recycling
to be performed locally by each house or household to...
E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.
E1.8 New technology related to use of water
(e.g. low water or waterless cleaning
clothes, dish washing etc.)...
E1.9 In the dense housing areas transportation of the
recyclables and disposable wastes are organized by so...
E1.10 Technology for the early detection of and response
to large-scale forest fires around the world.
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 2,5)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
21,7%
41,3%
17,4%
10 ,9%
6,5%
2,2%
10
19
8
5
3
1

What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
4,4%
8,9%
20%
35,6%
26,7%
4,4%
4,4%
8,9%
26,7%
26,7%
31,1%
2,3%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,1)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
2,2%
28,3%
47,8%
10,9%
2,2%
8,7%
1
13
22
5
1
4
2
4
9
16
12
2
2
4
12
12
14
1
115

Area 2: Industry, Business, Economy
116
Statements
E2.1 Motors and other industrial electric power apparatuses utilize high-temperature
superconductivity.
E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production processes by means
of large-scale energy storage system (superconductivity technology, a flywheel,
a capacitor, etc.)
E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes for SF6 gas (sulfur
hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating, and arc quenching in electrical equipment),
which has been additionally listed as a regulated substance by the Kyoto
Protocol.
E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings through a major industrial
plant downsizing (1/ 2 to 1/ 10 of current size) or a dramatic improvement in
plant serviceability by introducing modules in workflows, recombining modules,
and constructing modu
E2.5 Most companies and public organisations, regardless of size, go paperless
and improve productivity as well as energy and material efficiency through the
digitization.
E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from home or other proper
places using virtual technologies that allow sufficient social contacts with
co-workers.
E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible (thin and soft) that it can be substituted
for newspaper.
E2.8 Manufacturers’ responsibility (producer responsibility) for collecting and
processing of discarded products is defined by law, and reuse and recycling systems
in which more than 90% of used material is reused or recycled become
widespread in most product
E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and sustainability is raising
and this leads to significant changes in energy consumption, energy production
and energy and material saving through consumer choices and market demand.

Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
E2.1 Motors and other industrial electric power
apparatuses utilize high-temperature
superconductivity.
E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in production
processes by means of large-scale energy storage system
(superconductivity technology, a flywheel, a capacitor, etc.)
E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes for
SF6 gas (sulfur hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating,
and arcquenching in electrical equipment), which has been
additionally listed as a regulated substance
by the Kyoto Protocol.
E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savings
through a major industrial plant downsizing (1/ 2 to 1/ 10
of current size) or a dramatic improvement in plant
serviceability by introducing modules in workflows,
recombining modules, and constructing
E2.5 Most companies and public organisations,
regardless of size, go paperless and improve
productivity as well as energy and
material efficiency through the digitization.
E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from
home or other proper places using virtual technologies
that allow sufficient social contacts with co-workers.
E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible
(thin and soft) that it can be substituted
for newspaper.
E2.8 Manufacturers' responsibility (producer responsibility)
for collecting and processing of discarded products is
defined by law, and reuse and recycling systems in
which more than 90% of used material is reused or
recycled become widespread in most...
E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption and
sustainability is raising and this leads to significant
changes in energy consumption, energy production
and energy and material saving through
consumer choices and market demand.
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,7)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
10,4%
43,8%
20,8%
18, 8%
6,3%
0%
5
21
10
9
3
0
117

118
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,4; total: 47)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4,3; total: 47)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
0%
19,1%
27,7%
46,8%
6,4%
0%
2,1%
19,1%
34%
40,4%
4,3%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,9)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
0%
33,3%
56,3%
4,2%
0%
6,3%
0
16
27
2
0
4
0
0
9
13
22
3
0
1
9
16
19
2

Area 3: Transport, logistics
Statements
E3.1 The need for transportation of material and people is significantly decreased
by the use of IT (like traffic demand management systems).
E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport systems are widely used (automobiles, ships, etc.)
E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.
E3.4 Common distribution systems across urban areas that reduce the urban traffic
needs stemming from an increased volume of small-package deliveries due to
the proliferation of e-commerce.
E3.5 Car sharing and other forms of joint use of cars are widely used in large cities.
E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is replaced by public transportation,
walking and cycling, that are made attractive e.g. by new innovations in
information, comfort, traffic safety etc.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
E3.1 The need for transportation of material
and people is significantly decreased
by the use of IT (like...
E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport
systems are widely used
(automobiles, ships, etc.)
E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.
E3.4 Common distribution systems across
urban areas that reduce the urban traffic
needs stemming from...
E3.5 Car sharing and other forms of joint use of cars
are widely used in large cities.
E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is
replaced by public transportation, walking and...
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
119

120
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 47 (avg: 2,5)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
Number of question respondents: 46
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4; total: 46)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,7; total: 46)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
4,3%
28,3%
34,8%
28,3%
4,3%
2,2%
4,3%
39,1%
28,3%
23,9%
2,2%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,3)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
25,54%
27,7%
27,7%
14, 9%
2,1%
2,1%
0%
21,7%
47,8%
17,4%
4,3%
8,7%
12
13
13
0
10
22
8
2
4
9
1
1
0
2
13
16
13
2
1
2
18
13
11
1

Area 4: Material efficiency
Statements
E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic elements based on biotechnology.
E4.2 Methodology for tracing and identifying materials suitable for recycling
(plastics and metals).
E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers buy services or lease or lend
durables instead of purchasing material products.
E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering companies (ESCO and
MASCO) are commonly used in developing energy and material efficiency in industries,
other business and public entities.
E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly based on reuse systems.
E4.6 All products include informative description covering information about
production, material balances and emissions levels.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallic
elements based on biotechnology.
E4.2 Methodology for tracing and identifying materials
suitable for recycling (plastics and metals).
E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers
buy services or lease or lend durables instead of...
E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering
companies (ESCO and MASCO)
are commonly used in...
E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly
based on reuse systems.
E4.6 All products include informative description
covering information about production, material...
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
121

122
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 2,6)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
Number of question respondents: 44
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,1; total: 44)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4,1;
total: 43)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
2,3%
25%
38,6%
27,3%
6,8%
0 %
2,3%
30,2%
27,9%
34,9%
4,7%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 45 (avg: 3,1)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
21,7%
28,3%
30,4%
10, 9%
4,3%
4,3%
0%
22,2%
66,7%
2,2%
0%
8,9%
10
13
14
0
10
30
1
0
4
5
2
2
0
1
11
17
12
3
0
1
13
12
15
2

Area 5: Food production
Statements
E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large extent based on eco efficient
processes like fermentation and drying by solar energy.
E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and this reduces significantly environmental
impacts like green house gas emissions.
E5.3 Majority of the food consumption is produced locally (near-production)
and energy and material efficiency in the production and logistic chain is reduced.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large
extent based on eco efficient processes like
fermentation and drying by solar energy.
E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and
this reduces significantly environmental impacts
like green house gas emissions.
E5.3 Majority of the food consumption is produced
locally (near-production) and energy and material
efficiency in the production and logistic chain is
reduced.
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 1,8)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
58,7%
23,9%
8,7%
2,2%
0%
6 ,5%
27
11
4
1
0
3
123

124
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
Number of question respondents: 45
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 3,8; total: 45)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 3,4; total: 45)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
17,8%
28,9%
22,2%
20%
11,1%
2,2 %
28,9%
17,8%
33,3%
8,9%
8,9%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 46 (avg: 3,4)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
0%
23,9%
37%
23,9%
4,3%
10,9%
0
18
13
10
9
5
1
1
8
15
0
4
4
11
17
11
2
5

Area 6: Energy production
Statements
E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.
E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar heat, thermochemical
method using nuclear heat or other environmentally viable technology.
E6.3 Fuel cells for medium- and large-scale electricity generation.
E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric power generation in areas
that have electricity distribution network.
E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle feed or compost by efficient
small scale plants (micro cogeneration in households etc.) that use local
biomaterial like household and garden waste, weeds etc.
E6.6 Formation of international consensus on the CO2 storage in oil and gas
fields and brine-filled formations.
Time of technical realization (red squares) and social application (blue circles).
The middle point represents median value and the start and the end points
quartiles.
E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.
E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar
heat, thermochemical method using nuclear heat or...
E6.3 Fuel cells for medium- and large-scale
electricity generation.
E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electric
power generation in areas that have electricity...
E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle
feed or compost by efficient small scale plants...
E6.6 Formation of international consensus on the CO 2
storage in oil and gas fields and brine-filled...
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
125

126
What is the level of your expertise in this area?
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,8)
Everyday knowlegde (information
from newspapers etc.)
Good knowledge in some of the
questions in this area
Good knowledge in most the
questions in this area
Expert of active agent in some of
the questions in this area
Expert of active agent in most the
questions in this area
Do not know
What is the contribution of this area in meeting the future challenges and
opportunities...
Number of question respondents: 47
related to this theme in Finnish society? (avg: 4,6; total: 47)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
in developing and creating globally competitive industries and businesses
within this theme in Finnland? (avg: 4,5; total: 46)
None
Small
Moderate
Somewhat large
Large
Do not know
0%
0%
10,6%
34%
51,1%
4,3%
0%
0%
13%
32,6%
50%
4 ,3%
What is the level of competence, including research and development, in
Finland relative to the top level in the world within this theme? Finland is
Number of question respondents: 48 (avg: 2,7)
Leading
Among the top
Average
Somewhat behind
Behind
Do not know
25%
18,8%
25%
16,7%
12,5%
2 ,1%
0%
54,2%
31,3%
8,3%
0%
6,3%
0
0
5
16
24
2
0
0
6
15
23
0
26
15
4
0
3
12
9
12
8
6
1
3

Society based on energy and material efficiency
– Other innovations and observations
What are the most important measures that should be taken by the
government towards technological realization and social application (if any)?
You may choose multiple policy measures.
Number of question respondents 49 (avg: 5,6)
Human resources development and
education
Strengthened industry-academicgovernment
and interdisciplinary
collaboration
Technology transfer from other countries
Development of R&D infrastructure
Expansion of R&D funding for public
research organization and companies
Internationalization of R&D activitities
Relaxation or elimination of relevant
regulations
Tightened or new regulations
Improvement of environment for
business startups
Support through taxation, subsidies, and
procurement
Other
44,9% 22
40,8% 20
18,4% 9
36,7% 18
42,9% 21
26,5% 13
2% 1
42,9% 21
34,7% 17
49% 24
4,1%
2
127

Tekes Reviews in English
227/2008 Social challenges as the basis for foresight – Cooperative project between
NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland). Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan (Eds.)
127 p.
224/2008 Nanosafety in Finland – a summary report. Tuomas Raivio, Piia Pessala,
Mari Hjelt, Pirita Mikkanen, Hanna Kahelin. 17 p.
219/2007 VICTA – Virtual ICT Accelerator. Final Report. 25 p.
214/2007 Universities, industrial innovation and regional economic development.
A report of local innovation systems. Editors: Richard K. Lester and
Markku Sotarauta. 231 p.
213/2007 Trends and Opportunities in Packaging R&D in the US. Niels Hauffe,
NWV Market Discovery, Inc. 54 p.
212/2007 Consumer Packaging in Poland, Czech Republic and in Moscow Area. 50 p.
207/2007 MASI Technology Programme 2005–2009. Yearbook 2007. Eija Alakangas &
Pekka Taskinen (eds.)
206/2007 Update of GIGA-VAMOS – Technology Roadmap. Mikael von Hertzen,
Juhani Timonen, Pekka Huuhka. 93 p.
205/2007 Seizing the White Space: Innovative Service Concepts in the United States.
Peer Insight. 76 p.
202/2007 Five Steps for Finland’s Future. Pirjo Ståhle (ed.). 42 p.
200/2007 Innovation, Journalism and Future. Erkki Kauhanen and Elina Noppari. 88 p.
196/2006 E-Business Logistics Visions, Innovations and Research. ELO – E-Business
Logistics Technology Programme 2002–2005. Heikki Kekäläinen (editor). 91 p.
191/2006 MASI Technology Programme 2005–2009. Yearbook 2006. Eija Alakangas &
Pekka Taskinen (eds)
184/2005 Globalisation of R&D. Part 1. R&D in a Global World. Part 2. R&D in a Global
Economy. 126 p.
182/2005 Research training and national innovation systems – Finland compared to
Australia and the USA. Sandra Haukka. 154 p.
179/2005 Pharma development in Finland today and 2015. Updated version of
163/2004. 78 p.
177/2005 Best Practices in Innovation Policies. Heikki Kotilainen. 93 p.
176/2005 Finnish entrepreneurial activity in regional, national and global context.
Arenius Pia (Editor), Erkko Autio, Anne Kovalainen. 60 p.
172/2005 Business Cycle Effects on Start-Up Finance in Finland. 47 p.
Subscriptions: www.tekes.fi/english/publications

April 2008
Social challenges as the basis for foresight
Cooperative project between NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)
Tekes Review 227/2008
Further information
Eija Ahola
eija.ahola@tekes.fi
The Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation
Kyllikinportti 2, P.O. Box 69, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Tel. +358 1060 55000, Fax +358 9 694 9196, E-mail: tekes@tekes.fi
www.tekes.fi
ISSN 1239-758X
ISBN 978-952-457-404-4